/biz/ - Business & Finance

What does QE for the euro mean? What will happen with the markets? Is it the same as US QE? Why am I stupid and don't understand all this shit?

AMD getting raped today, probably even more after the closing bell when they release their earnings and forward guidance. Anyone shorting or holding here?

>>620611
ECB QE isn't the big factor, its what happens in greek elections: default or bailout.

market already has QE factored in.

also, oil movement is dead now

get your gains in PM before its too late

>>620611

Because nobody does. Even the central bankers are winging it. They've been doing a mostly good job of it, but between the fact that it's an untried solution and the fact that there are political ramifications, it's been a rough ride. Sure, the US did it and it pulled us out of the recession earlier than otherwise, and it stands as an example of successful central bank intervention. Europe, due to political factors even more complex than those of the US, continued to flirt with austerity for years. But let's not pretend there wasn't a lot of political pushback against QE in the US either.

Don't feel bad if you're confused by the macroeconomics stuff, Anon. A lot of people are, both traders and economists.

>>620621
>>620628
What different things could happen? Euro going up/down? European stock market collapse, or will it shoot up?

>>620638
Everyone is asking the same questions you are. Buy gold and silver until it settles down, then sell.

>>620621
If the Grexit happens, will the Euro go up or down?

It's a sign of the Euro experiment being a failure, but it also kills off one of the parasites harming the experiment...

>>620624
I noticed this as well.

>>620665
Eurozone implodes if Greece exits, first of all since all the money they pumped into it will become worthless when repayed in Drahmas, and second of all because it causes precedent for others to follow.

You're wrong about Greece being a parasite member though. EU banks willingly lent to Greece knowing they have no chance to pay back. Its debt enslavement of a whole nation in action. Lurk a bit more.

I say Greeks need to follow their own destiny, and stop eating shit EU throws at them.

>>620665
>>620661
>>620638

Is the ECB QE going to be enough to offset a greek exit? I don't know, they probably don't know, and /biz/ sure as hell doesn't know.

WILL the greek exit?
Signs point to most likely according to polls, but no one knows.

What will happen to the euro if greek defaults?
USD wins, EURO loses. Writing off bad debt=loss of value.

Which is why the PM market is spiking: too much uncertainty and PM is a safe haven in dark times.


But I'm just a random shitter on the internet, smarter people please feel free to rebut and enlighten.

>>620685
Why would the Greeks agree to become slaves? Was their economy bad before they joined the EU?

>>620735
It was pretty good since 80s with the tourist boom. Of course, everybody wants to expand and blow more hot air into the bubble. The hot air shouldnt have been provided in the first place is what Im saying.

>>620735
It's not that they agree to become slaves. The politicians effectively make greece a puppet state of the larger EU nations because of all the debt accumulated. Down the road all the other politicians get their hands tied down too because of something done in the past they couldn't prevent. Imagine if your parents left you a bunch of debt and you were responsible for paying it all back while the bank got a judgement against you in court to garnish wages and control your credit. You'd never be able to pay it back once it got to a certain level and there's nothing allowing you to restructure the debt through a different creditor or change the terms.

In terms of their economy being bad, this is something affecting all the southern EU nations. It's assumed that the southern europeans relax on beaches while the northern half works.

>>620624
PM?

>>620772
http://www.investing.com/commodities/silver-advanced-chart

http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-advanced-chart

still a long way before a Grexit, imo.
syriza won't announce flat out an exit.
legally it's pretty complicated and there will be long, EU-style summits, ECJ judgements and what not.
a Grexit is a lose-lose situation and nobody's in a hurry, so expect a long ride. which is probably good for volatility and gold.
outlook is bleak for Europe but they know how to kick the can, as the saying goes, so i doubt things will escalate too fast

Any proof that trading isn't just a luck game where there are too many factors to predict the outcome, thus making it random?

>>620818

>too complicated
>must be effectively random

Sorry I can't furnish the proof you asked for, but your post is proof that you're a fucking retard

>>620802
>legally it's pretty complicated and there will be long, EU-style summits, ECJ judgements and what not.

a default would mean a quick exit.

>outlook is bleak for Europe but they know how to kick the can, as the saying goes, so i doubt things will escalate too fast

typically once a crisis is identified it takes longer than people expect to occur and once it happens it goes way faster than predicted.

greece defaults: enormous volatility
greece exits euro: enormous volatility
QE is smaller than expected: priced in inflation turns to deflation, more volatility

if QE is a bluff or fails it will be a spectacular reversal for the eurozone stocks and currency.

>>620818

your post shows how stupid you are like the other person said :^)

>>620829
given your analysis, where would you put your money at this point?
i feel naked when i'm too deep into stocks (i feel it could crash at any moment) and the ECB untriggered the crisis pretty well last time to dissuade getting too heavily into PM's.

>>620837
I'm not >>620829 but FWIW I've been heavy cash this week. I'm not a mutual fund manager; I don't have clients paying me for exposure (nor to hedge), and since I don't have an edge ahead of all this macro stuff, I can't justify the risk in taking a position either way on it. (Yeah, yeah, if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. True - but that's the point. Cash, at least USD for an American, not necessarily true for Europeans or Swiss last week - is a legitimate position too.)

>>620985
>>620837

cash is still a position long the dollar, if the ECB does not meet what the market is expecting, euro will rally.

not that >>620985 is wrong to do it, just know that there are no positions you can take where you will not be affected if ecb does not meet expectation.

>>620611
QE means low rates and probably depreciation vs. the dollar, so probably parity within 18 months. The markets are already pricing it in but most broadly what it means is major U.S. exporters to Europe will have lower earnings in euros and U.S. ADRs of European stocks will lose on a relative basis due to the currency depreciation.

Cheaper Euro is good for exporters which are mainly German companies. Their 10y is already like 100 bps below the U.S. so Germany is seen as the safest euro bet so basically Germany will have tons of cash for the next several years as the rest of the eurozone sorts it out.

>>620837
money is the same place it's been. USD. QE is priced in for best case scenarios. if 500bil is announced stocks will rally in europe, euro will fall and dollar will go up. whether or not 500bil is feasible or will actually happen is not something i'm too sure of, or how high stocks will go up over several months. the knee jerk reaction is usually higher stocks.

This might be a really stupid question but how the hell do you do the math on stock appreciations?

If i buy 500 shares of a company for $1:56 and it goes up to $5.00 what would be my earnings?

>>621155

Really dude? Just think it through. You own 500 shares of a company at $1.56

The price PER SHARE goes up to $5.00

How many shares do you own again? Oh, still 500. So 500 shares times 5.00 the price one share is trading at.

>>621155
>how do I do elementary math?

seriously, get the fuck off this board and go back to school.

>>621174
>>621188

i've been trading for a few years casually but honestly i'm no good at math. i appreciate it.

>>621207
Honestly if you can't do compound interest in your head you should just stay away from the stock market

Curious to see what the President says tonight.

>>621207

hey man not even trying to insult you but seriously you need to get your ass back to school and study until you can at least conceptualize this shit in your head.


(500x5)-(500x1.56)=X

solve for x

What's going on with gold? It's at 1300, I thought it will move under $1000? Is it HAPPENING?

>>621622

euro stuff and no.

>>621387
1,747

>>621632
1,720

>>621155
Hahahaha what, now I feel good at math.How did you track you profit and losses?

Could someone give me a comprehensive guide on something like Weltrade? Don't have a lot of cash for now, and I know the basic idea behind currency exchange. They give you a demo run with fake 10k cash to train, and people like Larson&Holz are one of the few who give out actual starting capital for free.

>SLW just climbing and climbing

QE LEAKED EARLY

hope all you guys got out while you could.

Why is euro raising even though ECB started QE? USD/EUR is +0,8% today.

I would love to see parity as Eurofag as I would make much more shekels when euro is shit.

>>621865
means market overestimated bailout amount

>>621865
>Why is euro raising even though ECB started QE?
Because the market likes to inflict pain on the maximum amount of people. QE is a foregone conclusion. I bought EUR/USD yesterday as what I like to call a "costanza" trade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY

>>621869
I don't think so. People were expecting a total of $500bn Euros, the ECB announced it would issue $600bn.

I'm not sure why the Euro is up. I think the announcement as to which countries it's going to will have a bigger effect though.

>>621865
Algos logic is fucked up. Same reason the pound fell it was anouced that UK inflation was lower than expected.

>>621875
*....fell when it was anouced....

>>621870
Lol that's what I should do. My instincts are always wrong.

In other news, FXCM survived?? lol

I guess the improvement is temporary after all. The consensus was 500 billion but ECB went for 600, so the market is acting quite strangely.

European economy is still shitty as fuck excluding Germany. I can't see a bright future for at least two years, so going towards parity is inevitable.

I made over 10% thanks to EUR/USD last year, and it would be great if I could get the same this year too. There are only a few quality companies in Europe, so American markets are really tempting to me. Adding 10% from forex and 10% from low risk investments, I am going to be really glad with all my shekels.

>>621915
What the hell is a low risk investment right now? Please don't say bonds.

>>621922
you want a low risk, low return investment? option conversions...pretty much the same return as bonds though because that's all the market will allow.

>>621922
Dividend growth.

>>621929
This. I am 50/50 dividends and index ETF.

>>621870
hahahahahah

In fxcm yesterday @ 1.60
Out today at 2.30

Feels goodman

>>621960
how much do people usually put into these gamburus

like 5% of their portfolio?

>>621963
I usually stick up to 20% if i feel safe.

>>621963
Idk but yesterday thats about what i bought into it. Think it was like 8% of my portfolio.

>>621963
are you talking about total portfolio exposure to 1 trade?(like 10,000USD on 100,000USD account being 10% of portfolio) or total % at risk?

>>621968
total portofolio exposure

EUR/USD is only +0,10% now, so it was temporary indeed.

What do you think of REITs in 2015? I have about 15% of my portfolio on REIT. Rates are probably going even lower for some time which is obviously great for the sector, but is the market expecting a rate hike to happen in the summer and thus starting to sell their positions?

2014 was a great year for REIT, should I expect 2015 to be great too?

>>621973
forex pairs don't move much, 1% is a good day. you have to use a lot of leverage to get anywhere unlike stocks where you have to put up 50% margin and the stock can move 5% in a day.

>>621928
>>621929
>>621933
So this is what the market has reduced us to? Fucking dividends?

I already feel 80 and I just entered the market. Fuck this.

>>621865

Doesn't anyone remember the last time the european markets were about to crash? And draghbi said WE WILL DO ANYTHING TO KEEP THE EURO AFLOAT. Or some bullshit like that. The EUR just kept rising and rising for a good year not even backed up by anything but a bunch of government bailouts. It sounds like everyones shorting the EUR/USD but at the same time who knows how much bullshit they'll spew in the morning. Markets aren't rational

>>620624
Gold is going to the moon

20000 dollars an ounce

I think we can all agree that EUR/USD is a one-way street, with EU QE and the fed rate-hike later this year. I would expect parity on the medium term like one of you here said earlier.

Gold will probably rally in the medium term prob 30% but people will prefer to own dollars after the rate-hike and when oil inevitably picks up.

As Europoor, it makes sense for me to be long US stocks.
The real question is what about European stocks? We all know that US stocks had a major rally during QE as bond yields were artificially depressed and people flooded into equities for any sort of return. Can we expect a repeat here or are European stocks already overvalued?

>>622225
>>622276
WAIT UNTIL AFTER FOMC AND GRANDMA YELLEN

>>622283
When?

>>622340
next wed. I expect the usual gold dump stock pump from the fed.

>>622276
I think the QE is mainly good for investors, not directly to the economy. But as the investing confidence rises, rates are low and euro is weak the Euro-zone slowly becomes more tempting to companies as confidence rises and exporting increases.

I haven't really followed European stocks but IMO they are not overpriced at all. There are some quality companies out there, but at the moment I am not thinking of investing to Europe because probably I will get the same profit even by changing my money to dollars and scratching my balls.

When will EU QE effect the markets?

Don't want to start a thread to ask this but I've been watching cypress(cy) for awhile now, it hasn't done anything really spectacular. Just sitting around $14-15 per share, so why is its p/e well into the thousands?

>>622822
Depends on the year(s) you are looking at. In 2011 they reported net income of 168m. If you believe they will be able to repeat that performance in the future the P/E would be 13.45. The stock price probably reflects that optimism.

+17% -> +$60 dollars per share on NFLX

Netflix got really nice Q4 Earnings, did you bought any /biz/?

>>622816
In 30 minutes shit will hit the fan

>>622816

More importantly... How will QE affect the markets?

>>622886
If the amount of QE surprises on the positive side stocks will really. If Draghi disappoints there will be a sell-off.

>>622889

Cheers bud. Best of luck to everyone.

As an Eurofag, where should I put my money?
I was thinking about an Oil ETF (UCO?) so I could profit from both oil and Euro

>>622884
Time to go innawoods?

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_150122.en.html

€60bn a month it is then. Today we rally?

>>622901
Oil isn't gonna rally anytime soon. Just go for US index ETF.

Wohoo, EUR/USD rally just started! EUO for the win :)

And Wall Street opens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4e-WhHdvvk

>>622940
Long term oil seems a good place to put your money now, OPEC can't keep the prices forever down + Russia is anxious to get the price back to heavens.

>>621992
I think your assessment is accurate. Make the best decision you can with it.

Hi /biz/

I'm looking to put around £1,000 into a FTSE stock, having made it from a mid term investment AIM oil company. Anyone got any ideas for good prospects?

what's up with tvix?
does it represent volatility?

>>622953
It is going to be really hard... Probably I am going to sell half to get around 7% portion of my portfolio. But on the other hand, REIT has been doing great even when the rates were higher...

Portfolio +2,5% today in euros. Thanks ECB :)

>>621960
should have held

will PM drop ? when euro QE is over? then will it be a good time to buy gold and silver?

I like where this is going.

>>623246
I'm holding but I'm scared
any predictions on when to bail

>>623329
Weird connection.

>>623330
holding till tomorrow to see if it gaps AH

haha time for oil?

>>623332
What?

It just shows the EUR/USD movement on the google chart. It's at an all time high here in germany, while in america it's still about $80 away from the highs.

Love my based RUSL and COOL

>>623368
What's AH?

>>623252
don't you get it? it's Happening. QE will never end.

>>623390
After hours

>>622943
There is no long-term oil. Oil is traded on the futures market so unless you plan to buy and store it on your own or buy long-dated contracts the only investments are in services, equipment, or drillers (the riskiest) or the majors (less risky).

QE seems to be 60billion €/month over the next 19 months. I just started work after studying, have 14k savings in €. Interest ratings are shit here in belgium, got 1.8% now but assume that will drop even further now.. What should i buy? Dollar bonds, etfs? (which?), crude oil tracker? What are your advices?

>>623455

do some reading and shut the fuck up bottom feeder

What to short other than Euro ETFs?

is fcxm a buy right now?

>>623475

sure put all your savings into it :^)

or come up with your own conclusion dunce

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2838226-fxcm-where-to-from-here

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2842146-the-bearish-case-for-fxcm-will-it-collect-on-debit-balances-outstanding-and-what-are-the-consequences

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/01/20/interest-rate-on-fxcm-bailout-could-hit-17-still-no-word-on-negative-client-balances/

>>623470

Hey man don't be nasty. You think the bigman moneyjews spend their time on biz? We're pretty much all in the same rocky boat.

lol tho.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/01/22/saudi-press-agency-saudi-king-abdullah-has-died/

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/22/saudi-arabia-king-abdullah-dies

SAUDI KING IS DEAD BOYS

WHERE IS OIL HEADING NOW

>>623470
/biz/ - Unhelpful Sass

>>623475
yes

>>623522

I find it funny you say yes when they're legally not allowed to go after the money their clients lost as stated on many clauses in their registration papers. While they are being bailed out they're also being investigated right now for some shady stuff. It's not that i don't think they'll go up but just saying YES is quite misleading when their stock can't be worth more then $3-$4 after their current losses.

>>623516

Will go up if this 30 minute candle closes above the 200 day ma.

Thanks for the news btw.

>>623516
WTI FUTURES ARE UP A BUCK

BUT THEY'LL PROBABLY KEEP OPEC POLICY THE WAY IT IS, STARVE OUT COMPETITORS WITH THEIR LOWEST EXTRACTION COST AND HUGE CASH RESERVES

ITS NOT LIKE A REVOLUTIONARY REGIME CHANGE, JUST NORMAL SUCCESSION OF MONARCHY

NOTHING MUCH WILL CHANGE IN SAUDI POLICY

>>623537
>>623536

It'll probably temporarily go up with people trading on emotions..nothing much to see here i doubt in the long run but JUST who has control over the oil policy? It's not just the president is it. The next leader salaman seems more incompetent then abdullah.

>>623470
this coming from the guy who can't even figure out his ROI

>>621188
I think he meant, what sort of brokerage fees are involded ?

Test

Testing

>>623826
No he did not.
Profit (after taxes)-fees is what the trade made you
It isn't that hard

well fuck yeah I finally got to ride a drop.
kept getting stopped out the past couple nights

a nice +105 pips

Google and BRK making me some nice profits here in germany. Now I just need to figure out how long I should hold them. BRK probably forever, but I'm not sure about my google shares, I don't have an exit strategy.
Anyone else making a nice profit because of the EUR/USD, and with what?

>>623829
Testicles

>>623885
Basically every US index. If you want to make money by forex, buy EUO. If you want to be hardcore, buy 3x bulls like SPXL, CURE, FINU, UPW, DRN.

Yesterday was quite nice for my portfolio, only +5,29% :)

at 1.1217 now

no bottom calling but would be neat to see a move up to around 1.21 from here before a further move down

would be a great short opportunity

sup guys? how's the margin scalping working out for you?

>>623929
My 100% US portfolio is up 2% today and the stock market hasn't even opened yet.

Great to be an Eurofag.

>>623929

tried to chase that dip right after I posted this but only ended up +10 pips from it

time to sleep

>>623933

I suck at scalping

just give me a trade or 2 a night

>>623947

200 day MA on the tick.

>>623807
It's always the know-nothing tryhards who shitpost the hardest on this board.

>>623937
You trade global tickers? How do they work? Do they pay the same dividends they do for Americans? I've seen American stock traded in Europe follow the same trend they do in NYSE or whatever but with much less volume, what does that entail?

>>624063
Na, it was just because of EUR/USD.

LADS, EUROPOOR HERE, SHOULD I BUY EURO STOCKS OR SHOULD I BUY DOLLARS?

CHEERS

post your positions over w/e:
jdst and dust here.

>>623472
I think we've pretty much missed the boat on shorting the Euro at this point.

Made $120 in 45m on FXCM after hours. Not bad for 5 minutes of work. My only trade this week. First extended hours trade, too. Will definitely look into this more in the future.

test

So, tomorrow starts the 2015 financial crisis. Sell all you can in the pre market, plebs.