/biz/ - Business & Finance

it will easily beat the record this time

>>58449973
It seems like everybody is preparing for a crash but playing a game of chicken deciding when to pull out.

>>58449898
Most likely yes
Crashes don’t happen when everyone is pessimistic or conservative
They happen when people are at their greediest and think it will only go up
Be ready

>>58449982
they're trying to choke the exit this time (crypto)
not going to work, but you won't see a USD crash
nobody will ever buy dollars in bulk anymore

>>58449898
It will happen later this year and it will be bad, that being said if you invest in the post depression boom (and don't die in any wars) you will have generational wealth so it can be a good thing if you play your cards right

>>58450028

The boomers dumped their bonds because twitter said 60/40 is dead. They now have no portfolio protection right before the juicy dumperino.

>two more weeks
>cash is king
this narrative certainly hasn't backfired so far

>>58450138
the 10yr-3month yield curve inversion has predicted every single recession ever and never had a false flag but sure I'm sure this time is different

>>58449898
I just happened to be looking at the curve to see if it un-inverted yet. Making about 5% on my TFLO patiently waiting.

>>58450174
More money has been lost waiting for a crash then the crash itself.

Everybody though it was going to crash in 2023 but everything reached ATH in 2024.

>>58449898
>united states
YAWN

>>58450374
The only Economy that matters. Every other economy are shitcoins and already crashed.

>>58450138
>this narrative certainly hasn't backfired
only if you mean t-bills
cash has been obliterated by people waiting for a recession pullback
what we got was a stealth liquidity injection that pumped everything
we hit a snag on the last months, but don't expect it to last

>>58450248
This. There is so much money that has been sitting on the sidelines that this "crash" will never actually happen.
>There are plenty of low PE ratio stocks out there that no one is investing in because they have slow growth.
>The stocks that people are chasing are all in emerging technologies, particularly Ai
>Market conditions are improving despite high interest rates
>High interest rates are resulting in fewer homes being built, keeping prices elevated.
>The fastest growing inflation is occurring in service industries as wage growth is starting to catch up with more market realities.

There won't be a sudden drop in housing prices, so there won't be another 2008. Interest rates have either peaked or nearly peaked so we're probably not getting more banking crises.

If someone wants to tell me the source of the crash I'd really like to hear it.

>>58450655
Checked. No crash. I hate the fed and I'm a btc maxi til death. That being said, Jerome is doing a decent job for a job nobody should have.

>>58449898
probably not if he has some SSNC, but lets be honest, they're trying to dump crypto so much, and thats not going to work since its too big for that now, I would say a lot of ponzi shit will be accepting more and more crypto now, since us dollar is basically crashing

>>58450701
There are some significantly overvalued stocks out there. For instance Costco is somehow trading 47x earnings. By contrast Microsoft, a company that is financing Ai and could massively benefit from it, is trading 35x earnings.
There are some headwinds for the US economy. Under the Biden administration it has grown slower than the Euro zone. The high cost of housing will eventually become an issue when it eventually starts coming down as mortgages are basically financed under the presumption that the price will increase as a function of time. Fuel prices are also elevated which always has downstream effects.

>>58450248
>>58450655
How would it reach an ATH with tons of cash on the sidelines? The ATH was reached because that cash got pumped in.
t. dumbass who hoard 200k in a savings account over the past couple years, just waiting for a crash to finally start investing

>>58450753
>waiting for a crash to finally start investing
KEK I love to read this over and over again. See you never, loser. >-u-<

>>58450145
We're been in a real-terms recession since '21, dollars will never be worth more, retard.

>>58450753
The reason the bond market is inverted right now is that people are unwilling to take less than 5.2% on 2 year bonds because the perception is that markets will outpace 5.2% over the next two years.
A large % of the cash in the market is foreign capital. There are tons of value traders in the US who are fleeing to alternatives, like crypto, fearing high valuations in the market.
European stocks have had mediocre returns over the last 5 years. The top performing ETFs in the Eurozone are all hedge funds. Where is all the capital in the Eurozone going?
The greatest growth has been in large cap, American stocks over the last 15 years with no sign of anything changing. This was done while margin investment capital is at lower levels than in 2021.

>>58450834
This is also true for anyone not holding assets. Real wages are down like 3.5% since Biden's election.

Don’t expect a crash until Trump gets elected in 2024. They know he’s going to win so they’re planning on blaming a mass depression on him to taint his legacy

>>58449898
oh wow the inverse flex reverse yield bond graph is going sideways, thats scrazy

>>58450655
its not about the source of the crash, its that the system is fragile enough for a catalyst (ie a black swan) to set it off, and its fragility also means it will collapse spectacularly

>>58450753
>just waiting for a crash to finally start investing
you're waiting for fat currency to regain its value for some reason
just think about that concept for a moment

>>58450029
>they're trying to choke the exit this time (crypto)
This is annoying when there are only a handful of exchanges to convert to jew fiat and they want you to spread your ass cheeks with KYC verification.
When you only need to convert a little to pay living expenses, and you could easily start a currency exchange yourself - like "Hey I'll pay your rent for bitcoin/crypto."
But then zog will send armed people to arrest you.
It's gay.

>>58452237
>i wish i could be the jew
really anon? that's ur ambition? btw, if u can't beat them, at their game or join them, it is a competency/skill issue and ur coping - the point is ur spiritually jewish

>>58450028
But it will dump from an higher point.
So if the SPX goes to 7000 and crashes to 4000.. so what, not that big of a deal.

>>58452579
wrong board

>>58449898
recessions happen a few years after it goes back above 0

>>58452689
Not in 73 >>58450174

I told you fkers this time it was gonna be different but you didnt listen you never do

>>58450655
>money on the sidelines
>Advertising buzz words from a decade ago
>Please buy funny doge shit token
Lol. It done. Not even stupid money wants millennial bags. You are like the boomers post 2013 trying to get "young" money to buy their gold bags