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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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57715788 No.57715788 [Reply] [Original]

>American discount retailer Big Lots
Big Lots invest thesis summary: bankruptcy or 10x+ returns. It's a very high risk play!

>Bankruptcy is likely
American discount retail chain Big Lots (NYSE: $BIG) in trouble
Long-term debt of $533M in asset-based lending facility
Net loss $-463M (ttm)
6 quarters of deeply horrible negative EPS figures
$46.6M in cash, sold California distribution center (Apple Valley) and 23 stores
Shareholders won't get anything after a bankruptcy, don't be a BBBYQ baggie

>Shorts still greedy, /smg/ still bearish
Shares Short (Jan 31, 2024): 6.41M
Outstanding shares: 29.22M
22% short interest

>Quickly return to profitability
Executives are reducing costs with project springboard
Project springboard: $200M+ savings in COGS, SG&A and increasing margins in 2024
Inflation is hitting hard, consumers are ditching Target and Walmart, favoring budget stores instead
If interest rates drop, housing market gets more demand meaning more sales for BIG in soft/hard home categories

>Juicy low stock price
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.02
Price/Book (mrq) 0.34
Book ratio is misleading as inventory will not be able to be sold for full price if Big Lots goes bankrupt

>Michael Burry is in
Q4 2023 13F of Burry's fund Scion Asset Management, LLC
$BIG 225,000 shares
Bought between $807,750 to $1,822,500
1.85% of portfolio

>Big Lots Investor Relations
https://www.biglots.com/corporate/investors/news
https://www.biglots.com/corporate/investors/sec-filings

>Useful links
https://www.biglots.com/
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BIG/big-lots/net-income
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/768835.htm
https://stocktwits.com/symbol/BIG
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIG/community

GME 2.0? Meme short squeeze could be a play, social media is picking it up
>Buckle up: WAGMI

Previously:
>>57689235

>> No.57715793

baggot general

>> No.57715796
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57715796

>>57715788
>Insider buys
2023-12-01 Capital Allocation Chair on the board buys 12,000 shares at $6.29.
May-July 2023: 4 buys of directors and CEO, total of 74,00 shares at prices of $4.853-$5.005

>Extremely aggressive share buyback play
BIG currently has a market cap of $116M
$159 million remaining under its December 2021 $250 million authorization program
Ample liquidity thanks to high 22% short interest
If in the following quarters they can reduce their losses and return to their historical annual net income of $100M+
And scramble enough cash for A) general business B) debt down payments and C) share buybacks
BIG can buy up to 99% of shares outstanding at current stock prices
Would allow the company themselves to take advantage of their low stock price

>Q4 earnings coming up March 7
EPS is expected to be strongly improved YoY for Q4, retails strongest quarter
Q3 guidance: "Expect quarterly YoY improvements to continue through 2024; Project Springboard on track to deliver a high proportion of the $200 million+ benefit in 2024"
CEO on preliminary Q4 results:
>"I am pleased to share that we delivered fourth quarter performance in line with our guidance"
>"In addition, we generated substantial cash flow in the quarter, which was used to pay down debt on our $900 million asset-based lending facility. We look forward to reviewing full fourth quarter results in more detail in our upcoming earnings call on March 7."

Once cost savings are in and EPS is profitable, P/E ratio is expected to go to 20-30, same as Dollar General, Dollar Tree, TJ Maxx, Ollie's, Wallmart, Target.
If BIG returns to their historical annual net income of $100M+, ignoring short squeeze and share buyback plays, expect a 10x return.

>Share price targets with expected $100M annual net income:
P/E ratio of 5: $17.11
P/E ratio of 10: $34.23
P/E ratio of 15: $51.34
P/E ratio of 20: $68.45
P/E ratio of 25: $85.57
P/E ratio of 30: $102.68

>> No.57715921

Im sold. Dumping all my gme for big first thing Monday

>> No.57716515

Will this take 4+ years like gmeme

>> No.57716526

gamestop is all anyone cares about wake up

>> No.57717075

Why does this feel like some thread sliding bullshit to obfuscate people from finding bbby and to reinforce the idea of bankruptcy plays as retarded
>inb4 schizo, bag husband, etc
It’s oddly similar in presentation/aesthetic with none of the organically developed hype.

>> No.57717188

>>57717075
I love how the scams on this board have like 5 nested layers of meta.

>> No.57717890
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57717890

>>57717075
>to obfuscate people from finding bbby
Finding bbby? Buddy there's nothing to buy or sell anymore.
>>57716515
If BIG is not profitable within one year they're done for
>>57716526
Trading volume suggests GME is dying out

>> No.57719043

weird

>> No.57719129
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57719129

Big lots

>> No.57719544

>>57717890
i went to a biglots to apply for a part time job about 6 months ago. the manager immediately called me back after submitting the application, so i went in for the interview and they said they could only pay me $10 an hour lol. i couldn't believe my ears. i was making more than that at walmart back in 2007....

so i kindly thanked the manger for her time and went elsewhere. currently making $20 an hour driving a forklift now.

so yea. it seems to me BIG is too broke to even afford employees.

>> No.57720350

My lil $BIG calls dun did be doin a lil sumn sumn
>>57716515
>>57716526
>>57717075
Its a categorically different play than the big memes. Short term, high risk, we'll know in like a week and a half if any money will be made, then it'll be joever. I threw $70 in

>> No.57720363

>>57717075
>reinforce the idea of bankruptcy plays as retarded
You are so close to self awareness

>> No.57721210

>>57721072
>wallstreetbets pump n dump
Don't see any BIG talk on plebbit yet. Still early.

>> No.57722787

bag lots