/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57641397
Interesting thanks. But wouldn't bank failures also attract capital to gold specifically because it's pristine collateral? So couldn't both gold and USD go up?

thoughts on Indonesian stocks? threw out some cash to scoop up some offshore natgas that has been absolutely -90% devastated.

>>57641666
there only ones i recall being interesting were tin and placer gold mining operations that got demolished earlier this year due to lower than expected metals prices.

major news from Antamina copper project in Peru.
https://www.mining.com/peru-approves-2-billion-antamina-copper-mine-expansion/

Mali looks more and more unstable after another attack on a mine in the country.
https://www.mining.com/web/three-dead-as-bus-carrying-b2gold-employees-attacked-in-mali/

>>57641666
I only know that Indonesia has huge growth coal exports to India an China so maybe look into that. Oh and Nickel Industries is producing lots of laterite nickel and processing it into products for both the stainless steel and battery markets with a major Chinese partner.

>>57641677
any tickers you can name?

>>57641728
there's the government backed company Timah that mines placer tin in a number of locations, but i have no idea how they have been doing since early last year when the whole industry imploded.

>>57641701
Yeah, Indonesia has been on a tear with ramping up its coal production and exports. Indonesia is now one of the biggest coal producers in the world and might have already surpassed the U.S. in total production (will be interesting to see when the 2023 numbers come out).
It's now a middle income country with a fast-growing economy largely due to their coal exports. I want my company to open an office there.

>>57641484
>But wouldn't bank failures also attract capital to gold specifically because it's pristine collateral?
Unfortunately, I think not as I said liabilities are denominated in USD. You can't pay down debt with gold, pay your taxes nor can you buy groceries etc...
>>57641666
>thoughts on Indonesian stocks? threw out some cash to scoop up some offshore natgas
Some indonesian stocks are really cheap right now I own Indofoods and I'm looking to add more Indonesian names to my portfolio. Care to mention the offshore gas company that's down -90%?

>>57641943
I was more thinking about it as a flight to safety amid a banking crisis
>>57641930
Indonesia knows where the money's at for sure. Western economies would do well to follow suit with more environmentally sustainable coal production

>>57641984
>Indonesia knows where the money's at for sure. Western economies would do well to follow suit with more environmentally sustainable coal production
Absolutely!

>>57641943
PT Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk

>>57641984
>I was more thinking about it as a flight to safety amid a banking crisis
The flight to safety is the dollar, because it's used in day to day transactions.

>>57642081
>PT Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk
This Isn't a gas company, It's an oil services company a drilling contractor as far as I see, they have a ton of debt so there's a lot of financial leverage. If you're bullish on drilling activities increasing in Indonesia you stand to make quite some money, but that's a bet I wouldn't take right now. Indonesian companies I'm looking at right now are Indofood, Gudang Garam and United Tractors (this one owns coal and gold mine interests among other things), all of these are at like ~6 P/E some at discount to book value.

Have some gorgeous Pennsylvania anthracite, frens

>>57642502
That same anthracite lump, closer up

>>57642502
>>57642531
What's with the color and shine? What causes it?

more bad news for SSR Mining, Turkey has cancelled their environmental licenses after the recent wall collapse.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/turkey-cancels-ssr-gold-s-environmental-licenses-after-accident-1.2036110

>>57642670
Impurities

Oh good a steel apu thread. Nice, OP.

Today I went through a bunch of unit conversions. The HRC and scrap prices are reported in local currencies plus local units (long tons for england, short tons for the US, metric tons for the EU and India), so to do comparisons I've made a spreadsheet that allows me to input local data and then have it normalize. This is important because generally when US steel bottoms, it's a bit below "world" prices. Generally US steel is well above the rest of the world, so this scenario is something to look out for.

https://www.thefabricator.com/thefabricator/blog/metalsmaterials/sheet-metal-prices-pull-back-from-q4-peak

>>57642670
Jews

>>57642670
>Peacock coal is not a specific class of coal, but rather the name for an effect in which oxidizing materials in the coal create a dazzling array of colors on the surface of the coal. Usually it is short-lived, as the material fully oxidizes away shortly after exposed to air.

https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/peacock-coal#:~:text=Peacock%20coal%20is%20not%20a%20specific%20class%20of,fully%20oxidizes%20away%20shortly%20after%20exposed%20to%20air.

>>57643232
Steel Apu is good Apu. Steels is hard work.

I skimmed some articles on Y! today (too lazy to type yahoo) and it suggested that big shale might have potential. Partially because of global trade relations, and because of M&As in the sector.
I am once again bullish on sand

>>57643938
Coals is hard work too

>Turkey canceled the environmental licenses of a gold mine operated by a unit of SSR Mining Inc. in eastern Turkey after a landslide this week left nine workers trapped under the rubble.

>https://twitter.com/garysavage1/status/1759190069410439649?t=rFpW20pPlrZer9pREfaY2g
>gary say
bullish

>>57645905
>it will trigger a large short squeeze on the banks trying to keep price suppressed.
Kek.

>>57643973
>Sand
Good man

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty021524.html
>Every time we near a turn in the gold market I have an idiot from Canada write me to let me know how stupid I am since I write about resource stocks and how brilliant he is. This time he read me the riot act because he lost $50,000 on B2 Gold based on my recommendation. While I felt bad for him for about three seconds, I did feel it appropriate for me to mention to him that I had never ever recommended B2 Gold. Perhaps he should have complained to someone who cares. He clearly has me confused with someone who gives a shit about his investment decisions.
Based Bob.

>>57646381
>Perhaps he should have complained to someone who cares. He clearly has me confused with someone who gives a shit about his investment decisions.
Audibly keking my ass off. Holy based.

>>57646381
Bob's a retard but that is pretty based.

>>57646440
Yeah he says some pretty stupid shit.

>gary say
bullish

>>57646945
Silver has been weird for quite some time, the bias is up in the end imo.

>>57638952
Move to yreka county, it's a second ammendment sanctuary county.

Thoughts on New Pacific Metals Corp?

>>57646945
>>57646990
yeah I feel like I'd buy that and it would roll right over. for silver I just buy physical and plan on keeping it for decades and don't really think too much about if I'm buying it at 22 or 23 or whatever. same with gold desu, but I think gold is more predictable.

For those talking about Indonesian coal, you're right they dominate Pacific trade. The real questions are 1) how much does the indo government care about foreign investors and 2) how much do the companies care about returns to shareholders.

>>57647198
>I just buy physical and plan on keeping it for decades and don't really think too much about if I'm buying it at 22 or 23 or whatever.
Better than sitting in the dollar.

>>57647212
United Tractors which is more of a construction company, but gets a significant portion of the revenue from coal pays out regular dividends and they had a special dividend last year of around ~6000Rp share price is ~23000Rp. Unfortunately most Indonesian companies don't do buybacks as far as I know, but they don't dilute either so I guess it's ok.

>>57647089
So is Shasta county where I was convicted....

>>57647223
Same, I've got a couple thousand ounces of silver and plan to get more. I cashed out most of the stocks that made me a lot of money in recent years. I'll go about 60% precious metals for now, including some platinum just because I like it, and 40% liquid cash for expenses, which still amounts to like $650,000.
I might put more of that into PMs and go only a few hundred thousand in cash.
The dollar remains the flight to safety and the world reserve currency and is accepted everywhere, but someday that won't be the case. I also have a six figure income in a rather low cost of living area for spending money and additional savings.
So I'm doing well. Holding some PMs is a long hold for me and for many others, a hedge against dollar catastrophe.
Of course, ammo is also important, and, I think, the most important survival tool is community, which I am involved in. A lone individual can have plenty of guns, but a community -- which is also an armed community -- is still much stronger.

>>57646990
>>57647198
bullish

>>57647261
I'm a fan of dividends anyways. If they have good consistent dividends, go for it. That's why my fave pics are generally on the Oslo exchange.
>>57647276
That's doesn't make much sense if you were manufacturing in the Redding area. Unless you were distributed them (which is illegal). Manufacturing automatic weapons for yourself isn't Illegal in most areas and I would expect Siskiyou county to protect that unless you had a shitty lawyer and judge (since it's Cali I wouldn't be surprised).

>>57647356
Bro they enforce anything they like. That sanctuary shit means nothing to them it's all talk

>>57647279
You're being really prudent, you'll probably do well. Why don't you hold any stocks are you bearish on the markets?
>>57647356
>I'm a fan of dividends anyways.
I prefer buybacks for tax reasons.
>>57647333
How much lower can it go? Checked.

>>57647405
I still hold about 100k in coal stocks, but my goal with stocks was to make money, which I did in a big way. So now I'm turning those stocks into money: PMs and liquid cash.
Yes, I grew up butt poor and am naturally prudent. :)

>>57647438
Making it so far after a butt poor childhood and young adulthood is why I can get preachy about the virtues of going into mining. Not only can you learn a trade skill in mining -- you can learn several. Electrical, pipefitting, hydraulic mechanics, heavy equipment mechanics, heavy equipment operation, block masonry, and others. It's a great career path for someone willing to do dirty work but for big returns in low cost of living areas.
Oil and gas are also great for that.

>>57647457
>It's a great career path for someone willing to do dirty work but for big returns in low cost of living areas.
Mining seems like a great career path considering, how few people are willing to do it. No one wants to get dirty these days, they want an office job, but as salaries rise people will get into it for the money.

>>57647159
I have it on my watchlist. Interesting but I'm more interested in others. They should do well over time.
>>57647279
>>57647438
Happy for you anon. I'm a long way from your wealth. About $50k in stocks and gold, and maybe $20-30k in home equity if I sold.

>>57647484
And companies need a new generation of miners who want to stick around for the long haul.
Starting pay at many West Virginia mines is in the 30s per hour, which would be like 75 per hour in a big city, considering how cheap land is in WV.

>>57647574
I wish you all the best in your future endeavors, fren. May you make all the money you desire and have all the nice things you want. But also, life is more than just money. What counts is what money can do. For example, I am putting my niece and nephew through college for good degrees (medicine and engineering). I also like to see different places and traveling, which is why I work for a mine maintenance contractor. Should be heading to Colorado soon for a big project.

>>57647631
>which would be like 75 per hour in a big city,
That's insane.

>>57647223
>Better than sitting in the dollar.
It's okay. Silver is more speculative than gold, and collectables are less tax efficient than some other investments. I think the dollar of just a gateway to stocks, bonds, and inflation-hedging assets. It's better than other currencies, anyways.

>>57647726
Yeah for sure.

>>57647697
I think that says more about how stupidly expensive it is to live in big cities

>>57647745
Absolutely. The big cities are crowded as fuck, full of homeless and drug addicts, have tent cities and loads of crime, yet they cost a fortune to live in.

>>57647697
https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=bb4a2494b147f42b&tk=1hmqulsntkhp4800&from=hp&advn=3245995672358956&adid=425799593&ad=-6NYlbfkN0C-ct1gpGcbFAnNHUhZU24iDwZh_mRtONGSiNqBEIMLzMuNAr-Zs1WQAwNiFaxC0CDhCiRoAJHVXMFEfBm7ZCrGxaCd2FsyZXn1snDu469Q097nWE2frgMKDcFzqM1EGkT-QHuKvilNPmHYXsR4mcrJum5SQIABiT_wVb7HCLMvT4017WJPeLWSevfraayyAdtDHXDttz4jK14r0h9qT5pCtyle4Xr5jncX0G9gagO8Qz_1a-MoRc8602Z2ZIQ8fByIWqCY8Fy-LUvSeQ19m51sOt9o8wPtmL1ed7IPJCmOFBRcR-OCnJ3-oFGiIsxNXbzT3h67UdthV31ZTgVDvFJsIYbXlMxHzCMmAGr3Hie4sXTP8AsguPRjZZks_Tjh7gZPiKWaWTC6r3psdsGbMWg_RbAZBU4Gz9pb6vyl4ScDvq9kh0HVOtlB2SxpvQN_-DTcebqokUONNmDbxVzqtJnBxZ8VwwGOzr6bnTmmQhwse5wfzxjUJzNnZKbcIKAg22-WoyO9c9IMNgcpNXrzFrEiAX1xARZSo0gYsftrSuOI367FxNYqD2b86p79BVVqRWAXC-pdg96Egnmw8KEGSYVdGeUFnMqJaC0%3D&sjdu=SoZW84lRFHYuR0SXzqlu11krJXRZimo1aOMqTlL2gx_dFulC9GnqA3oNhIBEIF-5mInAXKnOMB3qGCMvL5zWXsArBAvp1X7Y_Hn9dMjxGPeUfljrS5XXvqkW4gobmH9PON6w1YRGV__GZoOM6hMqhhaA7-2YLZZphQ-OR98OGuAtVGqlvBe5GK02NlOTu7EfEBjUWCChhAHSigA7goYoxwTkXxkSFRJAM-k9e1cW0YAPC9gI_Fb52vucVxoGDZ1hE_iHwjc9gmProahRbZncMC1UaqW8F7kYrTY2U5O7sR8QGNRYIKGEAdKKADuChijHBORfGRIVEkAz6T17VxbRgJYR8M2Puz1WaM9J--D8h7TAA1wvi1d2vLHQqr3QXVbtJOLNvXKNz2TUJmWjaicEMw&acatk=1hmqunhqdgfr5800&pub=4a1b367933fd867b19b072952f68dceb&camk=4HOcmqOLYrDbJ7zo1OvHNw%3D%3D&xkcb=SoA26_M3Ea1YdoyKKh0KbzkdCdPP&xpse=SoA16_I3Ea1R4TyKCB0JbzkdCdPP&vjs=3

Sorry for the long link.
But Cheat Lake is right around Morgantown in far northern West Virginia. It's a big pricier, but you could live half an hour away in Greene County PA or deeper in West Virginia in a nice cheap area and start off at 77k driving a truck, and go up from there.
Many people don't realize the level of opportunity out there in rural areas that still have heavy industry left.

>>57647631
Ya it's been picking back up in WV since 2021. Started investing in a local coal mine here and demand for coking coal has been especially high.

>>57647795
I know guys making 100k with otr driving here in WV. It's a good gig here since COL is so low.

>>57647159
their the Bolivia focused company that has Silver Sands? Has anything happened with them recently? They dropped of my radar a while ago when i stopped getting their news letters.

>>57647802
Oh definitely. West Virginia is seeing year on year production increases in coal, which is great. The old heartland of coal production, north and central Appalachia (basically Washington and Green Counties PA, down to southern West Virginia), are ramping up production again even while production declines in the western states.
Coal is part of the fabric of West Virginia's culture. One coal job there supports many people, even extended family members of the coal miner can get help because miners often have cash to spare. I call coal mining "anchor jobs" because they anchor whole extended families and communities.

>>57647853
Coal is also doing great in southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky (Illinois Basin Coal is coming online in a big way, including in Illinois). And those areas are inexpensive as well. Get an MSHA electrical card after a few years in the mines and make around $45+ per hour. With foreman's papers over $50 per hour.

>>57647745
Yeah, real estate is so fucking expensive in the cities.
>>57647795
That's insane compared to Europe. From what I've heard from truckers their salaries are around $39k. Europe is such a shithole for business, too many taxes and regulations. Probably a good idea to move to the US as a European make your money there and gtfo.
>>57647815
>their the Bolivia focused company that has Silver Sands?
Yeah. Nothing new has happened except that the share price is 80% lower. They're doing a PFS on Silver Sand and some permitting to derisk the project.

>>57647853
Isn't Appalachia the poorest region in the U.S.?

>>57647907
>That's insane compared to Europe. From what I've heard from truckers their salaries are around $39k. Europe is such a shithole for business, too many taxes and regulations. Probably a good idea to move to the US as a European make your money there and gtfo.
I'm totally for free travel among CITIZENS of Western countries (not these new imports). Just part of my general Western Civ Patriotism in which I think we are all kinsmen.

>>57647946
It's either the poorest or one of the poorest, but the coal and gas jobs pay big, as does trucking and some other heavy industries like steel in Pittsburgh.
That's why I say "anchor jobs" are important. Having a coal miner or gas field worker in your family means you have someone to turn to for help, and many Appalachians still keep close to their extended family because they live in old, tight-knit communities.

>>57647946
Poor, but keep in mind wv has the highest rate of home ownership. We don't make us much $$, but a lot less debt slaves.

>>57647979
A single coal miner or gas worker job supports at least a dozen other people: railroaders, coal truck and water truck driver, power plant operators etc., as well as helping support large families. These jobs are the lifeblood of Appalachia.

>>57647398
Ya cali sucks, lived there a few years and hated it.
>>57647405
Ya I just have a monkey brain and like seeing dividends roll in while I'm holding. Both are clearly effective methods. STNG is a good example of great buyback management.

>>57648180
>Ya I just have a monkey brain and like seeing dividends roll in while I'm holding
Dividends can be good if you don't pay taxes on them, otherwise buybacks are just superior, but then again quite a few of my stocks have 7-10% yields.

>>57648292
Buybacks are only superior when the stock is very cheap imho. Seen a company do buybacks at high prices before and that bit them in the arse

>>57648445
Sure I get what you're saying, but buying back an expensive stock especially in a cyclical sector can give smart money a better exit price, and the share price goes down more in the down cycle because the buybacks were done at an expensive price. I mean you have to sell if management is buying back stock at the top of the cycle.

>>57648501
Well that's an interesting viewpoint. Buybacks are of course better from a trader's standpoint even if they're done at excessively high prices. Bigger swings both ways

>>57648541
>Bigger swings both ways
Yes, my point exactly. In countries where there aren't any withholding taxes on dividends most I prefer dividends (unless management is very good at deploying capital), because I get to deploy the capital when I want to, as opposed to management doing it for me, but when withholding taxes are like 15-30% better for management to buyback stock instead of throwing away 30%. Depends on the country and management in the end.

>>57646375
Previously I did Holcim, but it's an OTC/ADR thing so it's harder to hold in my TFSA. VMC looks nice as well. Mostly, construction aggregates seems to be the play, but perhaps that bleeds over into fracking sand too?

>>57648292
what are some of the highest yield dividend stocks right now? my silver dividend stocks are like webm

>>57648593
If your country has a tax treaty with the other country the withholding tax can be subtracted from the cap gains tax you'd have to pay for the divvies. But of course you'd still pay tax since it's cap gains like you'd do when you sell

>>57649012
>what are some of the highest yield dividend stocks right now?
PXT.T and CNOOC have nice sustainable yields. Tobacco stocks like BTI, Japan Tobacco (Althought JP has had a good run and it's not as cheap), emerging market stocks some banks have large yields I mean there's plenty to be found.
>>57649019
Nah brother I don't file taxes never will most likely.

>>57649062
too based for /biz/

>>57649103
Not as based, as the guy manufacturing guns. Had the same idea myself but didn't go through with it, yet.

>>57648904
Worked for both Holcim and Martin Marietta back when I did limestone mining. Good companies from what I saw

>>57649062
thx fren

>>57649526
Np. Here's one more stock tip. Get on a plane to Nairobi open a brokerage account and buy Safaricom it has close to a 10% dividend yield as a telecom/tech company pretty good don't you think?

I'm doing some comparative DD between Sovereign Metals and the world's biggest rutile and zircon producer Iluka Resources ILU.AX in order to gauge SVM's potential future valuation. Here's my findings on Iluka so far going off of their latest half year report:

>Iluka is currently valued at A$3.08B (~US$2B); with a PE ratio of 7.02; and pays a dividend yield of 0.83%. In the past three years heir EBITDA has averaged about A$780MM (~US$500MM)
>SVM is valued at A$244MM (~US$160MM). SVM's PFS projects US$415MM annual EBITDA at US$1,500/t rutile price and US$1,290/t graphite price; ILU's last reported rutile price was US$1,882/t, hard to find graphite pricing but the study used lower than current and peer study pricings
>ILU produces about 700,000 tons of zircon/rutile/synthetic rutile a year, of which about 50% is rutile and synthetic rutile, accounting for 20% of their revenue, and the rest is zircon. Zircon and byproducts contribute the other 80% of ILU's revenue. SVM is projecting to produce 222kt rutile and 244kt graphite annually. SVM won't produce any lower value synthetic rutile or ilmenite, only premium priced >95% TiO2 rutile. Graphite specifications apparently yet to be studied more and idk about graphite very much, but it should be high quality and fetch a premium price
>ILU's unit cash costs per ton of Z/R/SR is US$541/t, and COGS $690/t. SVM is projecting US$404/t FOB costs for both rutile and graphite, almost 50% less than ILU's COGS (FOB includes freight etc costs so I think that equals total COGS/t?)
>ILU has some REE plans which may affect their market valuation, but no big expansions ongoing afaik

Also
>Base Resources' Kwale rutile mine (65ktpa) is closing down this year, company is on record stating operations will cease in December '24
>Sierra Rutile's current operations (136ktpa) have been running out of ore and are to be suspended following govt decision though they have been approved for another project in development

binznes

>>57648292
>>57648445
You don't want a buyback when a company takes on debt to do it, either. That's just fraudulent fluff at that point
I'm an eternal baggie for WMT since I get a discount on them. 1-2% divvy, good growth, quarterly buybacks; been writing CCs on them for 1-2% premium as well, and they just announced a split

>>57649996
ah, correction: Iluka used to be the biggest rutile producer apparently but they spun out Sierra rutile which is currently the biggest. Sovereign's Kasiya mine will overtake that position. Sierra Rutile's Area 1 mining operation is being shut down by the government of Sierra Leone for now since they want to renegotiate fiscal term with the company. If the proposed new fiscal terms went through the company would have to pay a "substantial payment", "which would have a significant impact on the Company's financial and operational sustainability." They also state that the proposed fiscal terms would make Area 1 uneconomic, and this whole ordeal puts the company's ambitions to open another rutile mine into a precarious situation. So idk maybe Sierra Rutile won't be producing much of anything at least for a while. Base Resources and Sierra Rutile together account for about 41% of global non-synthetic rutile supply. SVM's Kasiyawill step up and resupply that market for the next 50-100 years or so

>>57649996
I was doing some DD on a company unrelated to commodities VFC Corp. It's in the shitter, management is impairing intangible assets and goodwill to make the bottom line look like shit while simultaneously buying millions worth of stock on the open market. But when one looks at the cashflow statement you can see that the company is generating a ton of cashflow and once they stop impairing intangible assets the net income per annum would sit at around $800M (mcap is 6.3B), and yes I know there's other concerns about stagnant revenues and high debt (at very low interest rates and first maturity isn't till 2026).
Anyway, has SVM got all the permits to build and operate the mine? Is there a date on when production might begin?

>>57650091
>You don't want a buyback when a company takes on debt to do it, either.
Well that depends. It's good for stockholders in the short term and not in the long term. So logically you sell the stock once management has bought back the stock with debt and it's overpriced af.

>>57650156
SVM still needs to get some permits but there's strong local and government support. They recently attended an indaba together with a whole host of Malawian officicials, and they have an interministerial committee assisting the company through the permitting process. Malawi's current economic strategy is to attract investment in agriculture, tourism and mining. The mine would alone constitute like 10% of the country's GDP, and the government will get a 10% free carry on top. The company is literally being hand held by the government. It is all very lewd. They'll likely negotiate fiscal terms face to face. But it's probable Rio Tinto will buy the company long before production begins.

>>57650156
>>57650243
Also production might begin in 2027-2028. DFS should be done by this time next year and after that it's FID and project financing time into a two year buildout

>>57650243
>>57650274
Great, would be very nice if people lose interest in the stock and it sells off before the DFS is out and Rio Tinto buys them out.

>>57650303
I'd love that too, but I'm already a buyer at these prices. I get to buy lower than Rio Tinto when they bought 15% at A$0.486. RIO also has an option to acquire another 4.99% at A$0.535 by the end of July '24, which I think they'll want to take in order to spread out those payments. After DFS is released they have a 180 day option to become operator, but read between the lines: Rio Tinto does not operate mines on behalf of tiny junior miners. They're going to do a take over.

>>57650359
>Rio Tinto does not operate mines on behalf of tiny junior miners. They're going to do a take over.
No, doubt in my mind about that one. Might put in a bid myself.

>>57650389
My TA is shit but I like buying at these price levels based on the chart. Long consolidation and doesn't want to go down much.

>>57650401
Very hard doing TA on SVM. Frankly I have no idea which way it's going to go in the short-mid term, but it looks like it's at a breaking point It's going to have to move somewhere in a few months time.

>>57650473
If Rio Tinto decides they want that 4.99% then look forward to 0.535 in the short/medium term

Wish they'd open or reopen some underground anthracite coal mines in Pennsylvania around Scranton. The anthracite mines operating today are surface mines.

Sold my Whitehaven Coal position and gorilla'd into more Sovereign Metals shares. SVM is now 10.60% of my portfolio, I think I'm happy with my exposure there now finally. I'll come back to Whitehaven later probably. I just can't find another company trading at these prices relative to projected EBITDA, ans at these prices relative to NAV.

>>57651148
What does SVM do? All I know is I made $40 on Whitehaven last year swinging coal, since there is no etf anymore

>>57651155
Please read the thread, I've gone into detail. In short they have the world's lowest cost, biggest rutile/graphite mine in development. Here's a good short presentation from the COO explaining some things:
https://youtu.be/2Yq2XXJ9zM0?si=D-J4QbNWO5X5CB-G

>>57651020
whats the water table like out that way? Are all the closed mines flooded?

푒풶퓇퓃 풻퓇푒푒 푔풾풻퓉풸풶퓇풹퓈 풶퓈 퓂풶퓃퓎 퓉풾퓂푒퓈 풶퓈 퓎표퓊 퓌풶퓃퓉 풶퓃풹 퓇푒퓈푒퓁퓁 풾퓉 풻표퓇 퓅퓇표풻풾퓉퓈, 퓇푒풶풹 퓉풽푒 퓅풹풻 풶퓉 퓉풽푒 퓁풾퓃퓀 풷푒퓁표퓌

tinyurl
com/5n8radbp

l5q2f2e7x2

>>57651490
I work the underground mines and and in Pennsylvania, those are in the far southwest of the state and produce bituminous coal from the Pittsburgh seam. I've worked in most of the big longwall mines there.
The anthracite mines now are all surface surface mines in central Pennsylvania and I haven't done any work at them, unfortunately. I couldn't tell you if the old underground works are all flooded now, but I hope they aren't.
I'll do some digging and asking around to see what I can find out.

>>57651490
Emailed a guy who works in an anthracite surface mine to see if he knows anything about it. Miners can be troves of knowledge about the history of mining in their area, but only some miners are like that.

>>57651169
Sorry, was just skimming, I'll take a look when I have time. Thanks

Coal lump, coal bump

Markets closed but futures open. If gold gets another green day (should be two but today and tomorrow will be combined) we have a 4 day corollary and 4 day rule, more evidence that the intermediate bottom is in.

ҽąɾղ ƒɾҽҽ ցìƒէçąɾժʂ ąʂ ʍąղվ էìʍҽʂ ąʂ վօմ աąղէ ąղժ ɾҽʂҽӀӀ ìէ ƒօɾ քɾօƒìէʂ, ɾҽąժ էհҽ քժƒ ąէ էհҽ Ӏìղҟ ҍҽӀօա

tinyurl
com/4unz63xh

m9e7u6e6m1

êårñ £rêê g¢årЧ å§ måñ¥ †ïmê§ å§ ¥ðµ wåñ† åñÐ rê§êll ï† £ðr þrð£ï†§, rêåÐ †hê þУ å† †hê lïñk ßêlðw

tinyurl
com/3deh5866

g0d4u0h3g3

핖핒핣핟 핗핣핖핖 하핚핗핥핔핒핣핕핤 핒핤 핞핒핟핪 핥핚핞핖핤 핒핤 핪할핦 함핒핟핥 핒핟핕 핣핖핤핖핝핝 핚핥 핗할핣 핡핣할핗핚핥핤, 핣핖핒핕 핥학핖 핡핕핗 핒핥 핥학핖 핝핚핟한 핓핖핝할함

tinyurl
com/5yj78cwh

e5l7b4x0r2

햊햆햗햓 햋햗햊햊 햌햎햋햙했햆햗행햘 햆햘 햒햆햓햞 햙햎햒햊햘 햆햘 햞햔햚 햜햆햓햙 햆햓행 햗햊햘햊햑햑 햎햙 햋햔햗 햕햗햔햋햎햙햘, 햗햊햆행 햙햍햊 햕행햋 햆햙 햙햍햊 햑햎햓햐 햇햊햑햔햜

tinyurl
com/7up6xzkz

q4o7s4t0j8

I set a limit order from CHN.AX, the stock traded at that price today, but when I logged in the It's like the order never existed, fucking weird man.

퓮퓪퓻퓷 퓯퓻퓮퓮 퓰퓲퓯퓽퓬퓪퓻퓭퓼 퓪퓼 퓶퓪퓷픂 퓽퓲퓶퓮퓼 퓪퓼 픂퓸퓾 픀퓪퓷퓽 퓪퓷퓭 퓻퓮퓼퓮퓵퓵 퓲퓽 퓯퓸퓻 퓹퓻퓸퓯퓲퓽퓼, 퓻퓮퓪퓭 퓽퓱퓮 퓹퓭퓯 퓪퓽 퓽퓱퓮 퓵퓲퓷퓴 퓫퓮퓵퓸픀

tinyurl
com/mu3xavt7

w9g4r5z8u9

>>57655371

>>57655343
weird shit. Could it be the order didn't fill entirely or something?

>>57655525
Nope, and I remember it was GTC, checked yesterday as well the order was there.

>>57655545
The Jew broker stole your order

>>57655918
The Hungarian in this case. The order was set through IBKR, or maybe the Aussie... Frankly idk where something went wrong.

Well silver is selling off as expected, palladium should continue the downtrend and platinum seems to be turning to the downside as well. Natural Gas is a mess, It's so fucking hot in Europe right now It's like late spring early summer. Is there a chance natural gas goes negative idk?

ᏋᏗᏒᏁ ᎦᏒᏋᏋ ᎶᎥᎦᏖፈᏗᏒᎴᏕ ᏗᏕ ᎷᏗᏁᎩ ᏖᎥᎷᏋᏕ ᏗᏕ ᎩᎧᏬ ᏇᏗᏁᏖ ᏗᏁᎴ ᏒᏋᏕᏋᏝᏝ ᎥᏖ ᎦᎧᏒ ᎮᏒᎧᎦᎥᏖᏕ, ᏒᏋᏗᎴ ᏖᏂᏋ ᎮᎴᎦ ᏗᏖ ᏖᏂᏋ ᏝᎥᏁᏦ ᏰᏋᏝᎧᏇ

tinyurl
com/7up6xzkz

o2b8u7e4z0

>>57656663
>Well silver is selling off as expected, palladium should continue the downtrend and platinum seems to be turning to the downside as well
excellent, lovely opportunity to keep averaging into both
>Is there a chance natural gas goes negative idk?
Yes, though that would be a first for Henry Hub or AECO benchmarks afaik. Other benchmarks like Waha are known to sometimes go negative

>>57657018
>excellent, lovely opportunity to keep averaging into both
Well hopefully Eloro keeps selling off. New pacific too. Would be nice to bag some shares are bargain prices.

>>57657575
I'm especially eyeing Eloro, but also looking to cop some Silvercrest shares

>>57657729
>Silvercrest
How's production going? Haven't been following for quite some time.

>>57657575
>>57657729
wasn't the criticism of Eloro when they dropped bigly months ago after their 43-101 showing it's mostly silver equivalent and they're more a a zinc play? So you want a massive base metal play in Boliva?

>>57657735
I think they're at nameplate capacity and will be for the next 7 or so years, while increasing resources & reserves over time. Lowest quartile producer, ~10Moz AgEq annual production if memory doesn't betray. Cash flow positive at current silver prices. Rather cheap compared to something like First Majestic, though FR has more torque when silver goes up exactly because they're struggling to break even at current prices.
>>57657859
I don't know what the people were complaining about but I think expectations were far greater than reality. It's about 30% silver, 30% tin, 40% zinc and lead I think. Something along those lines. With a 30ktpa operation they could maybe produce 20-25Moz AgEq annually for 15-20 years based on some back of napkin math I did. Basically a smaller Discovery Silver, except they're not in Mexico and they have a little bit less silver, and they're much earlier stage. And the tin exposure is nice. I also happen to like zinc too, I think it's somewhat out of favor.

>>57657899
>30ktpa
30ktpd*

>>57657899
I see they're also buying back stock. Not so good if you want to build a position.

>>57657989
Yeah I might just get a starter position in SIL this week

>>57657899
I really don't know fren, ELO could work out. I've taken so many beatings that at this point I just buy AEM and Snowline on dips.

>>57658022
Well if silver is going down, most likely SIL will too.

>>57658068
>I've taken so many beatings that at this point
On what?

>>57658080
Mostly on the ass and lower back

>>57658088
Kek.

>>57658080
every junior that's not Goliath or Snowline

producers like PAAS, B2Gold

>>57658068
I certainly think ELO will do well over time. The project is very likely to be quite economical. I have been watching the stock for a couple years and I was delighted at the -20% or so selloff after the resource estimate news. The higher grade pit is like 120Mt with a metal value of $70/t or so at a 1:1 strip ratio, compares quite well with Discovery's Cordero which has reserves in excess of 300Mt at about $57/t metal value and 2:1 strip. IIRC. Eloro has also already found strong mineralization to the immediate West of the high grade pit, and is going to test a chargeability high to the immediate East of the pit outline, and their infill drilling seems to deliver higher grades than the resource estimate drill results. It will take time but it looks like a great project to me
>I just buy AEM and Snowline on dips.
Based and ditto on SGD. AEM is already one of my biggest positions and a comfy hold

Whats the point of commodity stocks when all the fiat is going to the data companies draining all those commodities? You could just sit on msft and reap fiat gains as all the commodity companies go bust. Shit. Data centers will probably be last places with electricity as rest of world is back in 18th century.

Dont be greedy, its close enough from a bottom.

>>57658162
>every junior that's not Goliath or Snowline
That's pretty normal during a the downcycle, unless you picked the worst companies in the sector as long as you buy now you'll make money over the next 3-5 years.

>>57658216
>Whats the point of commodity stocks
To make money.

>>57658282
yeah better wait a bit and see where it lands. No need to get greedy with my buys

>>57658282
What's the point of this picture? I don't get it?

Steel and scrap falling today. Lots of downward pressure. This week I'm grabbing international steel market data and normalizing it to USD and short tons to compare apples to apples over time.

>>57658282
>>57658385
>>57658538
I'm just starting to learn TA, or rather haven't started yet but grabbed some books to start reading, but isn't the idea to catch the beginning of the uptrend? In that chart it looks like it could end up anywhere. Not implying any of you are doing anything wrong, just asking.

>>57658805
idk I'm shit at TA but I know you shouldn't at least catch falling knives. Higher highs, higher lows is what I like to see, or a strong support.

>>57658819
I think I'm going to read the CMT Level I guide to try to learn TA. I just haven't found a good torrent of it yet and it's quite expensive online.

>>57658282
>its close enough from a bottom.
is what people say when they think it has already bottomed, not actually thinking it's going to go any lower. Then when it does and they panic sell because turns out it wasn't close enough at all

>>57658819
Yes. If you are taking full positions intending to catch a trending move then it's better both technically and emotionally to wait for a reversal and be "close enough" on that side of the bottom, rather than tell yourself you'll hold through the remaining drawdown and risk being so early that you panic, which -everybody- does.

>>57658282

Possible, but still it's really funny how often people say,
>Things can remain overbought longer than anyone anticipates, just buy and ride it up instead of selling too quickly based on how overbought it is.
But when it comes to the other direction, it's always,
>We're close to the bottom guys! Just buy here before it bounces

It's entirely possible that the PM markets will eat shit for the next 2-3 years straight and remain oversold to a point even good producers start going bankrupt.
Not saying we're not close to the bottom, but we could just as easily keep on going down until the end of 2025.

>>57658805
Sure, but I don't think anyone here's buying GDX. Plus you have to look at macro we're at the top of a rate raising cycle, and when the Fed cuts (+QE), inflation will rise again making most of the stocks in the S&P shit with negative real growth, money will flow more into things people need (commodities) as opposed to what people want, sure some great companies might do well but I'm talking in general here.

>>57658975
>It's entirely possible that the PM markets will eat shit for the next 2-3 years
Very unlikely unless we have a liquidity crisis where the Fed doesn't act in a couple months and we go into total liquidation with bank holidays and all the lovely things they did back in the 30s.

>>57659245
Do we think the Fed will cut anytime soon? Stock market seems fine, houses are holding value, still some real pressure on the inflation side. Yes some banks are having issues with commercial loans and rate risk, but, they put an air bag in for that and there are already funds looking to buy up those distressed assets. I have no crystal ball, but, it wouldn't surprise me if rates stayed the same all year.

>>57659424
>Yes some banks are having issues with commercial loans and rate risk, but, they put an air bag in for that and there are already funds looking to buy up those distressed assets.
I think if they extend the BTFP in march PM's will break out and inflation will resurge.
>>57659424
>I have no crystal ball, but, it wouldn't surprise me if rates stayed the same all year.
I would be surprised if that were the case, if they extend the BTFP they might have to raise rates because of a resurgence of inflation, if they end the BTFP they will have to cut rates because banks will be falling left and right aka a liquidity crisis.

>>57659453
I think inflation is going to start to surge because of commodities. Fuel products are a good example, like if charting diesel adjusted for CPI.. diesel is fairly reasonably priced now. It would be interesting to chart more commodities versus inflation and see where things are at comparatively.

>>57659549
>I think inflation is going to start to surge because of commodities.
Yea, sure. But I think commodities are waiting on the March Fed meeting where they decide to end or extend the BTFP which is basically similar to QE.

>>57659297
based as fuck quote and we all know he's right, yet we're forced to bet the other way

>>57659565
Yeah. Unfortunately most people haven't the slightest idea how the system works, thus they cannot imagine how things would change if it fell apart. Andrew knew the system, we know it too, but we're a very small minority.

>>57659561
Ah okay. Yeah DXY is rising which I think is pushing commodities down, so if they extend BTFP that should maybe stop the DXY from continuing upward. Someone else said we need to watch the Euro retracement also... I don't know anything about meme lines but my weak attempt is attached. I mean that does seem like a downward trend and that we are just coming off a mini-top of the euro.

https://www.mining.com/optimism-for-metals-clashes-with-reality-for-juniors-ahead-of-pdac/

Hopefully constrained capital will purge some of the lifestyle companies from the resource sector

>>57659638
>so if they extend BTFP that should maybe stop the DXY from continuing upward.
Depends on what other central banks do. The dollar can rise against a basket of currencies while falling against commodities, but yeah if they extend the BTFP the dollar will weaken for some time unless it's "priced in".

>>57659673
I wonder what the other central banks have in the pipeline.

>>57659660
>Hopefully constrained capital will purge some of the lifestyle companies from the resource sector
Too many of those I've seen quite a few companies in my watchlist merge to avoid bankruptcy.

>>57659715
M&A is also healthy. The recent Marathon and Calibre merger for example was a reasonable move for both companies

>>57659704
China is cutting rates.
Japan never raised rates.
EU rates are still deeply negative
Brazil, Poland, Chile, Hungary, Czech, Israeli and other EM banks are cutting interest rates already. So the DXY might rise in, but so will commodities maybe not in USD terms. We will see depends on what the Fed does, it's a managed socialist economy.

>>57659770
>EU rates are still deeply negative
Real rates right?

>>57659780
Yeah inflation adjusted rates.

>Anglo American Platinum Ltd. proposed a restructuring that may affect more than 3,700 jobs across its South African operations, as plummeting metal prices squeezed profits.

> Germany’s potential nationalization of oil refinery assets belonging to Russia’s state energy giant Rosneft PJSC moved a step closer with Poland pledging the supply of crude if the plan goes ahead.
Might be time to get a residence permit in New Zealand or some island in the middle of no where soon.

Congrats to anons who didn't chase lithium

>>57660398
Yeah I always thought that was fake and gay. I'm sure people made a lot of money chasing the trend though, the people good at TA anyways. I imagine this AI bull run will be similar.

>>57660056
>>57660398
liquidate platinum group metals miners.
liquidate nickel miners.
liquidate nickel miners.

PGMs are dead.
lithium is dead.
nickel is dead.
>(You) are here

long live PGMs!
long live lithium!
long live nickel!

>>57660499
>PGMs are dead.
>lithium is dead.
>nickel is dead
Yup a good time to start buying.

>>57660499
>nickel x2
fuck I should proofread more

>>57660499
My vote is long live oil, steel, concrete, ammonia, and plastics. Those are the pillars of the world. They want their gay little electric car economy, better start building some steel and concrete infrastructure to make that happen.

>>57660513
Nickel miners are getting liquidated twice as fast because of the shite prices.

>>57660526
true. Lithium has much more downside though desu
>>57660525
I love all of those

>>57660538
>Lithium has much more downside though desu
Yeah, because it's subsidised, the cycles end up being more exaggerated. Nickel too I guess.

>>57660621
no I just think lithium mines are low cost enough to withstand lower prices. Plenty of news about nickel mines shutting down. Not many news about lithium mines shutting down.

>>57660398
Love this

>>57660637
>no I just think lithium mines are low cost enough to withstand lower prices
I haven't looked at it, but hard to believe they're making money at these prices, there was too much demand compared to supply, many subsidies followed and now there's too much supply and the demand is stagnant because of higher interest rates. Mines will shut down with time, if demand doesn't pick up.

>>57660056
was there anymore context to this? South Africa's gov has been tanking fast, and major operations including mining have been seriously impacted by the roaming blackouts on the power grid. Does that have to do with this or is Anglo American just crap at running things?

>>57660526
the absolute demolition of the nickel market was wild to watch, i wonder if we will end up with another supply deficit down the road after all the miners cant recover.

>>57660675
>was there anymore context to this?
No unfortunately I need a subscription to Bloomberg for the rest of the article.
>>57660710
>i wonder if we will end up with another supply deficit down the road after all the miners cant recover.
No doubt in my mind, when interest rates are cut a supply deficit will emerge eventually.

do any of you trade futures?

>>57660726
i ll go look around in a bit, those sorts of stories show up elseswhere a few hours afterwords. Watching South Africa implode is sad to see but they deserved it.

>>57660670
yeah I mean I haven't looked into the production costs in the lithium space much either but it really seems nickel is further along the bear market than lithium

>>57660904
Lithium is at the cost cutting stage, nickel is at the mine closure stage. That's where lithium needs to go before a bottom I guess, idk maybe mines are closing already haven't looked at it but lithium is like 80% down last I checked.

>>57660675
I think it's a combination of costs and PGM prices. Costs exacerbated by infrastructure issues and load shedding in the electrical grid. Honestly I'm surprised the South African PGM miners have held off on cutting production and personnel for so long, maybe they were just hoping the price environment would improve. Sibanye already cut some of its personnel in the U.S. Stillwater mine a while back. I expect to see more of these kinds of news from South Africa in the near future, and things might get spicy there later this year under and after the elections in the Summer

>>57660920
lithium's bullrun was absolutely only due to a sudden influx of demand and the fact that supply wasn't quick enough to come online to meet that demand. It's a young market so I'm not yet very interested in it, I want to see the market finding some semblance of price equilibrium so I'll begin looking into lithium miners once mine closure news begin coming along. I already have a few key names in my watchlist, now I wait.

>>57660944
>things might get spicy there later this year under and after the elections in the Summer
All these issues you mention won't be resolved in the near future. The SA miners can't invest in the operations anymore, costs are too high and they're inefficient, if PGM prices stay low for a longer time these operations might need to be shut down. Time will tell.

>>57660986
By "spicy" I mean hot. Like burning hot. As in not in a positive way

>>57660974
>sudden influx of demand and the fact that supply wasn't quick enough to come online to meet that demand.
Well that happens when the central banks increase their balance sheets by a few trillion, and then the commercial banking sector multiplies that number a couple of times. Too much currency and not enough capital.

>>57661010
Yes, but this was exponential in lithium. A lot of subsidized lithium demand hitting the market all at once against a fledgling lithium mining sector caused the lithium price's lofty highs. There simply weren't many lithium mines out there, despite the fact that it's very abundant and easy to mine and process. Nickel's runup was in part also due to battery demand but perhaps moreso due to futures market speculation.

>>57660499
Bullish for fracking sand

Meeting about new coal miner training at a Peabody mine was postponed again. Will update when it finally occurs

>>57661466

>>57661735
That's what it's feeling like.

>>57661010
>Too much currency and not enough capital.
You mean they have more receipts than deposits?

Get outta town!

>>57660499
In a bear market, people condemn the assets.
Despite the EV failure, will there be a demand for lithum in the future? Probably. Wouldn't hurt to grab a few positions in the sell off and add to them over a longer timeframe (1-5 years).

Coal lump, coal bump

Anyone know why gas prices are rising? I admit I don't follow the news on that issue much, since I have other stuff on my plate. But I've noticed quick gas price increases lately, and quite big increases too.

>>57664204
Saudis are having trouble exporting to Europe along with all the shipping diverting around South Africa cause sand niggers with alibaba drones. Plus the Panama Canal is having huge water supply issues so traffic’s getting backed up hard.

>>57664228
Thank you

>>57664204
Jews

>>57662316
No i mean they have more currency than capital goods (lithium,corn,oil,iron,computer chips, potato chips etc...)

>>57664204
>Anyone know why gas prices are rising?
Supply and demand, not enough refining capacity.

Well looks like CHN.AX is turning around so, that order scheme the other day isn't going to effect me that much.

>>57665353
A blessing in disguise

>>57665808
Kek.

>>57658068
>>57658163
Right on cue

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2961-tsx-venture/sgd/156091-snowline-gold-locates-new-reduced-intrusion-related-gold-target-with-outcrop-samples-to-2-0-grams-per-tonne-gold-over-17-0-m-within-open-2-km-soil-anomaly-at-its-rogue-project-yukon.html

>Michael says

https://youtu.be/w09GWiaxZ1g?si=tG4-0UUkMqD9mysn

Benton is going to pump today.

>>57666327
>gold above $2115
> Just two more weeks, trust me g-guys.

>Gary say

Gold is doing quite well technically speaking. Silver also hanging in there. Very possible we see new highs in gold this year

Discovery Silver published results from DFS.
https://discoverysilver.com/news/positive-feasibility-results-establish-cordero-as-one-of-the-worlds-leading-development-stage-silver-projects/

>Positive Feasibility Results Establish Cordero as One of the World’s Leading Development-Stage Silver Projects

>Large-scale, long-life production: 19-year mine life with average annual production of 37 Moz AgEq in Year 1 to Year 12.
>Low costs, high margins & low capital intensity: average AISC of less than $12.50 over the first eight years of the mine life placing Cordero in the bottom half of the cost curve.
>Low capital intensity: initial development capex of $606 million resulting in an attractive after-tax NPV-to-capex ratio of 2.0.
>Attractive project economics: Base Case after-tax NPV5% (“NPV”) of $1.2 billion and IRR of 22% with NPV expanding to $2.2 billion in Year 4.
>Tier 1 reserve base: Reserves of Ag - 302 Moz, Au - 840 koz, Pb – 3.0 Blb and Zn – 5.2 Blb, positioning Cordero as one of the largest undeveloped silver deposits globally.
>Clear upside potential: 240Mt of Measured & Indicated Resource sit outside the FS pit highlighting the potential to materially extend the mine life at modestly higher silver prices.
>Substantial socio-economic contribution: an initial investment of over $600 million, 2,500 jobs created during construction, $4 billion of goods and services purchased and estimated tax contributions of over $1.4 billion within Mexico.
>Industry-leading environmental standards: third-party reviews of proposed environmental practices to ensure adherence to both Mexican regulatory standards and Equator Principles 4. The Study also incorporates investment in infrastructure and technology to recycle wastewater from local communities with discharged water representing the primary source of water for mine operations.

I would expect nothing less. They just need the permits and this is an unironic 10x. I'm long but it's in Mexico.

>>57666832
>The economics for the FS were based on the following metal prices: Ag - $22.00/oz, Au - $1,600/oz, Pb - $1.00/lb and Zn - $1.20/lb. A 10% increase in metal prices results in a 40% increase in the Project NPV to over $1.6 billion. The payback is 5.2 years due to the expansion of the processing plant from 26,000 tpd to 51,000 tpd in Year 3 at a capital cost of $291 million. This expansion will be funded from operating cash flow. Completion of the expansion in Year 3 results in a peak Project NPV of $2.2 billion in Year 4.

>>57666832
>>57666959
When are they expected to get all the necessary permits and make a final investment decision?

>>57667192
March fifth

>>57667368
Great. Exactly TWO more weeks. I'll buy some and I'll trust the plan.

>>57667192
Permit decisions expected this year, FID/construction decision expected Q4 or early 2025 if permits are positive. Note the permitting risk: this is an open pit in Mexico.

>>57667428
>Note the permitting risk: this is an open pit in Mexico.

>>57646945
Thank you. I'm still not subbed.

>>57647279
I wa sin a similar position to you except I cashed out my portfolio to start a farm.

>>57647655
I'm going to have a harem with my half german Latina queen at the top and young white women on the bottom, all breeding and living on my farm.

>>57667518
Nice shrooms. You shouldn't let them grow that large or am I wrong? Talking about the blue/purple oysters.

>>57667598
That's good harvest size for the blues. We have a strain that grows larger for commercial production. Aggressive little bastards.

>>57667645
I have a property with a wooden barracks where I was planning to start a mushroom operation a year ago, but decided not to for multiple reasons, but now I have more free time, so It might be a good idea to get back into it. How much did the whole operation cost? Is it a small or a large operation, and how does it look like I mean do you grow the shrooms in containers in plastic bags, do you need an AC that maintains the temp at a certain level a ventilation system?

TL:DR: What do I need and how much would it cost me to start a mushroom operation?

>>57667518
>I'm still not subbed.
I'm not too.

>>57667451
>That id
>J3w
We see you

the slide continues, might make the roundtrip back to .12

>>57667965
>AAAAAAAAAAA! SHUT IT DOWN! I'M FOUND OUT! SHUT IT DOWN!

>>57667704
If you can't go big from the start you're wasting your time. If you can't produce at least 60 pounds a week you're wasting your time. My investment costs were $250,000. I have a commercial scale facility with industrial equipment. If you want to work farmers markets you need 60 pounds a week and can make $500-1500 a week. I have $8000 a week contracts with restaurants. I manage humidity, c02, o2, and temperature in a grow room I built myself from the ground up.

Not trying to be exclusionary, it's just that everybody and their mother wants to start a mushroom farm these days. If you can't do it right from the beginning then don't bother. Too many clowns at farmers markets trying to hustle ten pounds a week.

>>57668099
And then they disappear in two months.

>>57668099
>If you can't go big from the start you're wasting your time
That's what I thought. I assumed there was a large capex because you need to control: humidity, c02, o2, temperature etc... You need to produce large volumes to make your investment back plus profit.
>Not trying to be exclusionary, it's just that everybody and their mother wants to start a mushroom farm these days.
Nah man I appreciate the advice. Don't want to end up starting a small operation that isn't profitable and waste time and money.

>>57668193
You can start a small op by all means. Just understand it's not going to be the big bucks like everyone thinks like they think its a six fig a year thing. If you can produce 60 pounds a week you can easily make $3000-$6000 a month. Just expect it to be full time work. Not a bad gig. The equipment itself isn't that bad. Out of the entire Capex, the actual mushroom equipment was about 30k. Having a building and the property to do it is a different story.

There's a lot of other assholes out there that rent a warehouse for example or have debt for their mushroom farm or they couldn't afford to get ALL the equipment so they try to half ass or cheap cut some corners. I'd never do that. Business is too risky to be in that situation. Contamination is one of the biggest things you deal with and having to make rent or a debt payment when you get a crop wiped out is stress I don't want to deal with. Either do it right from the beginning or don't do it at all. If you want to do farmers markets, then do it right. Be able to produce sixty pounds a week. If you want to do restaurants you need a 600lb a week output. Too many assholes trying to swing 5-10 pounds at a farmers market and selling dried and aborted shitty quality mushrooms.

Wish you best of luck friend should you'd decide to pursue. If you get further along I'm happy to talk. I will say one thing. Bags are the way to go. Anything else is a waste of time.

>>57668335
>You can start a small op by all means. Just understand it's not going to be the big bucks like everyone thinks like they think its a six fig a year thing.
I don't expect to get rich from it, just a side gig for me.
>Having a building and the property to do it is a different story.
How many square feet is your grow room?
> Contamination is one of the biggest things you deal with and having to make rent or a debt payment when you get a crop wiped out is stress I don't want to deal with.
For sure.
>Bags are the way to go
Thought so.

Another day, another dump in junior mining stocks.

Just got back from a work meeting and see everything is blood red. What the heck happened?

>>57668736
Jews

>>57668706
Except Benton resources. :)

>>57668046
Oh, noes!

>>57668706
SGD +4%

>>57668895
>SGD
>Junior
Pick one.

Thoughts on New Found Gold? A bit expensive right now ain't it?

>>57669136
Yeah agreed.

>>57669136
>>57669141
Morgan Stanley & Raymond James don't think so, both made big buys last week

>>57664204
The Whiting refinery shutdown because of operational issues.

>>57669228
>both made big buys last week
How big are we talking?

>>57668099
They could grow psilly shrooms and net more from less. I can send you the strains I have spore prints from a dozen strains

>>57669317
>psilly shrooms
How did you get the strains in the first place?

I emailed you Red

>>57669364
A long time friend and grower in the Carolina area

>>57669228
the market has room for lots of opinions

why is my uranium going down

>>57669683
no idea but damn im taking a beating here.

Scrap getting closer to support. Will be interesting to see if it bounces off support and causes steel to reverse when it does.

>>57670003
wider view

Oil is trading very strange for quite some time now...

>>57670077
inventories are back to 2016 lows so I think that means higher volatility, bigger moves up and down

>>57669683
Jews

>>57669683

Because it went up for a year straight and now it'll cool of for a while.
I swear everyone keeps on buying the top of every commodity here, because they jump into them only when twitter starts making noise.
Uranium was a buy before 2019 and also around the late 2022 bottom.

>>57669683
>why is my uranium going down

>>57670194
I'm trying to learn from past mistakes. Been buying platinum group metals, gold and silver stocks. Also looking at nickel but haven't made any buys there yet, I need to see how that market churns through its high inventories and all that Indonesian laterite production. Natgas looks cheap but I think it's a trap so long as producers refuse to plug in wells.

>>57670323
>Natgas looks cheap but I think it's a trap so long as producers refuse to plug in wells.
The cat that Natgas is just sitting here not even bouncing 10-20% seems like it's heavily shorted to me.

>>57670345
It probably is heavily shorted. It's not called the Widowmaker for nothing, it can demolish both bulls and bears alike because it swings literally dependinh on which way the wind blows (weather). Fundamentally speaking though, lots and lots of supply and high inventories, and demand just isn't keeping up despite the LNG narrative. Producers need to capitulate or some kind of freak weather event of electrical grid issue has to happen I think.

>>57670394
>Fundamentally speaking though, lots and lots of supply and high inventories,
No doubt about that NA is producing too much gas, and EU and Asia isn't producing enough. The LNG narrative is kind of a long term narrative, somethings something massive investments in gas infrastructure, something something NA will export to EU & Asia and the spreads will tighten between NA and the rest of the world.

Looking at NVDA, it seems like US equities have found a top, at least a local top. Bullruns like these can come to a quick halt after a -5% move in a market leader like this. The chart did look like it was showing signs of plateauing, now a top and a major resistance is in. Should be bullish for cash in the near term, and maybe this triggers some much needed sector rotation away from tech and back into commodities. Maybe. Or maybe it's a sign of a broader top in asset prices and it signals that we should just stack cash for now.

>>57670457
>US equities have found a top, at least a local top
Yeah, I agree. NVDA doesn't have that much upside, if it doubles from here it will be $4T company which would be insane, not that the current valuation isn't insane but that would be insane on another level. Money might rotate into the dollar until the decision is made on the BTFP extension or dissolvement. If they extend it money will flow into commodities imo.

>>57670457
>>57670506

Considering how Nvidia and AMD are both going to launch a new generation of GPUs later this year and AMD will be pushing out a new CPU generation too, I have a feeling that the tech bubble isn't quite done yet.
Especially since you can bet that they're going all in with the machine learning performance. Coming out with hardware that could be pulling +2x faster AI computing, that's one hell of a boost to the industry and earnings.
Every company is going to be able to make all kind of improvement claims after putting in orders for these GPUs, which should keep the hype going for a while.
If we were 2-3 years away from a new hardware launch I'd say that yes the absolute top is in and this was it for the tech sector, but this launch year can radically change things.

>>57670586
>I have a feeling that the tech bubble isn't quite done yet.
Me too, I was alluding to a local top maybe nvda goes down 20-30% and then maybe goes up again with that bullish news, maybe it even goes to $4T idk. I won't be buying it that's all I know.

>>57670586
I'd say it all depends on NVDA's ROE. The recent bullrun has been sustained due to frankly stunning returns on equity, I think it's something insane like 900% or something. The current valuation is pricing in a lot of success, and it's the most crowded trade in the world. NVDA has big boots to fill, and it's more difficult to fill those boots the higher the value of the company is. Honestly I can see it go either way from here, but it depends on the results. We've seen how other mag7 stocks have been treated when they post a slight miss.

Quite a few good juniors running out of cash. Insane to think they'll have to finance when their stock is down 80-90%...

>>57670911
Management & directors' dealmaking abilities as well as the quality of their project will be put to the test. May the best win, may the worst die.

>>57671098
I mean most of them in the end don't raise money at the top of the cycle they raise it at the bottom. Those with good project could find alternative ways of financing.

Check the Natgas computer.

it blows my mind that Tudor Gold doesnt get much love. They have an incredible property, good management, and good plan for development. Is it the massive cost to develop the mine thats keeping investment away? I cant figure it.

https://resourceworld.com/tudor-gold-significantly-increases-ounces-and-grade-in-an-updated-mineral-resource-estimate-for-the-goldstorm-deposit-at-treaty-creek-british-columbia-with-an-indicated-mineral-resource-of-27-87-moz/

>>57671564
>27.87 million ounces of AuEQ, at a grade of 1.19 g/t AuEQ
>C$190M mcap
What am I missing here lmfao? Worth the time to take a look at this.

>>57671564
A bit of a bummer they own only 60% of the project. I think It's sold down for the same reason most juniors are sold down and that's financing. Looks like they raised C$8.9 Dec 2023 and that will last them for 6 maybe 9 months if they're pushing it.

>>57671589
they also have something like 2.7 billion pounds of copper with a grade of 0.31% which is incredible. I agree with the financing, but come on, this is an incredible property, directly opposite one of BCs best gold mines (Brucejack), and another massive copper project as well at KSM. The cost to build this mines massive, but the grades far better than projects like Schaft Creek or Copper Canyon, both similar sized deposits / projects.

>>57671727
Surprised none of the majors haven't come in to derisk this project. Who owns the other 40% of the project do you know?

>>57671589
I think Tudor had a fairly remote project area, and the copper-gold porphyry may have been buried underneath some hundreds of meters of barren rock. I should check when I get the time, been a long time since I looked at them.

>>57671754
Teuton owns the other half IIRC. I think Tudor and Teuton had two adjacent properties and since they were chasing the same porphyry they decided to JV

>>57671754
last i checked it was a royalty company and a partnered prospector / project generator, both heavily involved in the discovery and cash generation side of things. I ll look again in a bit to see if anythings changed.
>>57671844
Some of the original ore body was deep, but the other nearby discoveries are at or near surface in the same basin.

>>57671844
>>57671863
>>57671870
I see. Looks like along with the financing there was over two million options granted to insiders at C$0.85.

>>57671589
That's per ton

>>57671912
revelatory discovery!

>>57671943
Kek

>>57671589
Lumina Gold is btw valued similarly and they have a +20Moz AuEq resource, albeit closer to surface and lower grade. They have released a PFS and are going into Feasibility stage. They're in Ecuador so again as with some of my other longs jurisdictional risks are present. But the management team is as solid as they get and the project is fantastic albeit high capex.

>>57671990
>Lumina Gold
I'm aware of them, someone mentioned them a few threads ago seems like a pretty good project. What's the capex?

>>57672009
I mentioned them yes. The capex is $925MM and after-tax NPV5% is $2.2B using $1,650/oz Au and $3.75/lb Cu prices. I think they may contemplate a staged ramp up in the DFS a lá Artemis' Blackwater which is finalizing construction this year, to reduce that initial capex. They have already secured a royalty/streming deal with Wheaton for $300MM but they're actually looking to sell the company before it gets into construction stage. It's one of Ross Beaty's companies, he's sold like a dozen companies in this manner in the past. But whether they have to build or not I think my patience will be rewarded

>>57672049
Awesome might bag some shares myself.

>>57672049
speaking of Blackwater, expect delays announced in the up coming week. Some guys i know though the grape vine have been saying construction is being hampered at all sides by material delays and shoddy work by the major contractor. Things that should have been done 2 months back are still barely started. Stripping for the pit was supposed to have started in the early winter, but its only started around a month ago.

>>57672148
Thank you for the tip Pan Man, I might sell some shares and come back later... I'll think about it. You're a gold mine of info!

>>57672250
if you want to look deeper, look up Sedgman, their the primary contractor for the Blackwater mine project, who by what i ve heard are taking the project for a ride. Nothing thats not typical for the sector though, just slowing things down for more money.

>>57672294
Do they have a history of doing that? Cunts

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-20/bhp-ceo-mike-henry-half-year-results-nickel-iron-ore-china/103488554
Now BHP is throwing in the towel on nickel! Worth a read.

>>57672691
thats hard to tell, its construction contracting, there's always some kind of bullshit accounting going on.

>>57669228
Blackrock also bought Encore last month and they’ve done nothing but shit the bed alongside the whole U sector since.

But NFG is one of the best picks, I have buys for $4 and down, currently own a few thousand shares. Some people say it’s bonanza grade, other people here say the deposit is too nuggetey. You could do ally worse than NFG.

>>57670911
>>57671389
Tbh I think the best financed miners are not public companies. The mere fact of these small operations needing to go public for small operations tells a lot. The little bit of digging into juniors I've done has shown some companies that are in really bad financial shape.

>>57673957
unfortunately unless you have boat loads of cash already, doing any private venture project in North America is disgustingly expensive. The permitting, field gear, camps, general pay for staff etc eats a million and a half easy in a single field season. Guys like Bernie Kraft (KraftCo) manages to do field work for some major projects privately by being extremely lean, but he still manages to burn probably 100k a season per program.

>>57674000
I know that's a lot of money to us, but, depending on the margins that might be just fine. If it's not possible privately and has a startup cost of only 1-2 million dollars, it's probably not a great business to begin with. There are certainly good reasons to go public, but the main good reason is because there is some sort of growth potential that needs massive capital and there is a good story to back it up. These miners a lot of them don't really have any real growth other than "well we got some mines and if the price of the metal goes up we're going to make more on what we mine". Then they load themselves with debt that eats them up along the way. A lot of it is kinda stupid desu.

>>57674062
it really is a niche sort of business plan to start up, its full of scum but also loads of half retired geologists and their kids, working on some spot they found or saw it the 80s they think will be the next incredible jackpot. If you find the right project or property, your set for life with net smelter returns and stock options. Remember too that a huge percentage of these companies are either pump and dumps or another form of scam like lifestyle companies. They never planned to go further than a bit of drilling and sell their project off.

For the companies that actually want to see a project though, it makes sense to take on debt to try and get through to the next phase, or to weather a shitty season of the market, to keep their property in good standing so they can come back and start fresh when things come back.

>>57657018
>>57656663
AECO cash markets go negative frequently. not in the forwards but yeah gas sucks right now.

Bayhorse is producing so much silver its driving the price down

Will bake
Also, am still waiting for the meeting on this Peabody mine possibly changing it's training approach for new miners.
Waiting for Godot . . .

New bread

>>57674390

>>57674390

>>57674390