/biz/ - Business & Finance

I think #Bitcoin buying demand from ETF's settles down at an average of $60m a day.
Half of what it appears to be now and I believe that runs for the year, giving about $15bn of net inflows in the first year of the ETF.
With just 450 #Bitcoin a day being released - down from 900 a day today.
That implies just an ETF demand equilibrium price of $133,000 per #Bitcoin.
I think you can safely factor in about 300 #Bitcoin a day of selling in addition to the mined supply. So a total daily selling pressure of 750 #Bitcoin.
Implying an equilibrium price of $80,000 post halving.
This is in normal market conditions when there is NOT a major dump of supply onto the market.
Remember, the demand is now institutional and passive and SMART, so the demand is not reflexive to the supply to the upside, but will hold itself back to the downside.
So this implies large price spikes to the downside, but slow grinds to the upside.
In addition.
My calculation here does NOT take into account the following Supply constrictions that may arise as we approach and pass the halving:
1. Miner's putting #Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet and thus lowering daily supply, I think this could account for about 100 #Bitcoin a day.
2. HODL rate increasing and therefore less people selling as the price rises. I think this could account for maybe 50 #Bitcoin a day less.
It also does not take into account the following Demand triggers:
1. Passive flows are larger than I think as income funds start coming in once Options are active.
2. Asset managers educating the downstream to sell the asset faster than I think will happen at this point.
3. Big buyers like Michael Saylor showing up and adding in $10-$20m of extra buying pressure daily.
4. Retail getting smart and adding buying pressure earlier than we think as the pivot from other assets starts.
5. A million other possible demand spikes.