/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56814774
simple, jews.

>>56814779
ok.

>>56814774
Are you paper trading it, or are you "adjusting" it because you want firmly to believe it rocks?

>>56814774
whats the appeal of trading forex? why do this instead of getting bigger returns in crypto or even stocks?

>>56814774
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1er78agcQE

Here you go cyka.
like n subscribe n shit.

>>56814774
Because the past doesn’t represent the future. You can’t beat the system

>>56815289
paper trading

>>56815434
how come the past of 2020 for example was predictable and 2020 was predictable too then?

Make your trade criteria more strict

>>56815463
like in real market conditions, or you just look at a formed chart?
This makes a huge difference

>>56815495
what is the difference?

bogged. simple as.
for same reason i only think of a trade setup after it's already played out. see MGM stock today, spiked above $40 then dipped to $39.50 for an easy intraday scalp. i thought of it after it already happened. i was awake at 7am too but didn't think of it at that time. some of us are here just to suffer.

>>56814774
You need to read the manga first

>>56815506
What's the difference between forming candles and a chart that's already there?
Literally everything.

>>56815625
if it has no gaps and have candles down to 1m then why not?

>>56814774
zoom out
tradingview won't cut it

>>56815639
Maybe try to tell me your strategy and I will explain you why it doesn't work

>>56815651
a chart pattern that I have noticed working in every chart with at least 93% accuracy and I have tested it too many times!

>>56815472
you've found a model that merely describes old data. it didn't "predict" what happened, this is a failure on your part to understand the relationship between modeling, actual economic activity, and the observer effect of participating in economic activity based on a given model. also, all models go through periods of unprofitability, and all unchanging models are unprofitable given long enough time frames.

>>56815718
but as you said it doesn't work in real, lol

>>56815718
>a chart pattern that I have noticed working in every chart with at least 93% accuracy
>>56815792
>but as you said it doesn't work in real, lol
???

>>56815774
but I am too poor to affect the market! and I live in my mom's basement and I have a lot of time and money to waste until I make it because of the strategy's winning probability one day!

>>56815807
>WHY DOES MY FOREX STRATEGY ALWAYS WORKS IN BACKTESTING BUT DOESN'T WORK IN REAL LIFE? IT'S NOT BASED ON ANY REPAINTING IDICATOR OR ANY SHIT!!!
>a chart pattern that I have noticed working in every chart with at least 93% accuracy and I have tested it too many times!

>>56815809
Read this again, slower this time
>>56815774

>>56815831
>all unchanging models are unprofitable
then what are the changing models?

Cuz u use tradingview for backtest
Tradingview dont work because in backforward it dont use the data of the tick chart..

What was your strategie by the way?

>>56816210
tracking trends

>>56815486
this

>>56815432
is that you?

How the fuck do I calculate pip value
I trade based on ATR but lot size shit confuses me
I can do CFDs on other shit too

>>56814774
>WHY DOES MY FOREX STRATEGY ALWAYS WORKS IN BACKTESTING BUT DOESN'T WORK IN REAL LIFE? IT'S NOT BASED ON ANY REPAINTING IDICATOR OR ANY SHIT!!!
Emotional and psychological factors, lack of money management planning.

Or just... bogdanoff infestation.

>>56815368
>whats the appeal of trading forex?
It's easier to trade on insider information due to foreign government corruption.

Lol anon, it's called curve fitting. Forget what any other morons told you, there are only two ways to make money in financial markets:

A) Risk Premia Harvesting
You take on risk that others don't want to and you get paid for it (the premium). Your job is to manage that risk, only take on risk you are actually getting paid for and then sit and and get paid.
Stocks pay more than bonds because they are more risky (insolvency risk, economic risk, etc). Crypto pays more than stocks because its risikier (exchange risk, rugpull risk, regulatory risk).

B) Exploiting Pricing Inefficiencies.
Aka ALPHA. You trade against price insensitive traders because they temporarily distort the market from the "fair price" (whatever that even means) and your PnL is you getting paid for providing a service (making the market more efficient and brining the price back to "fair value").

For example some degen overleveraged morons got liquidated on a Khazakstani Crypto Casino Exchange. His position on IliquidShitcoinInu got market sold and punched right through 5 levels of the order book. You can now take the opposite position of that and buy the IlliquidShitcoinInu for cheap.

Your backtests are profitable probably because you have lookahead bias, you don't include trading cost, you assume you can trade at prices that you won't get filled at in the real world (getting filled at the open of a candle during a strong move e.g.)

Backtests are the last and least used tool to develop a trading strategy.

Your model is most likely overfitted and thus fits the peculiarities and noise present in past data more so than any general underlying processes that you are trying to predict.

Depending on your approach, try different methods of cross-validation and regularization when building your model.

gambling thread

>>56818453
>lookahead bias,
kys

>>56818529
he doesn't know

>>56818536
ignorance is bliss

>>56818453
>Backtests are the last and least used tool to develop a trading strategy.
What's the most used tool then? or the best?

>>56818909
forward tests are the only one valid. and open a demo account for 6months.

Also dont forget that with backtests you dont have the bid ask, whereas with real market orders 1/ you have the queue 2/ you sell at the bid and buy at the ask

this is why sometimes people ask ''why my stop loss didn't trigger in the back test'', that's because backtesting has only the bid, or just the candle in fact.
THis is why TV backtesting is shit, or at least shit for intraday trading when you need all the little price movement.

by the way a cheap tick history for MT4/5 is here
https://tickstory.com/changelog/

>>56818932
>https://tickstory.com/changelog/
and this one
https://eareview.net/tick-data-suite

>>56818932
How do you forward test? just open a demo and run your shit for 1 month? I dont want to wait 1 months in order to see if i fucked up, dude :'c

>>56818960
yeah forward testing is literally opening a demo account seeing for yourself it works, and ideally over several months

anyway just buy tick data if you can't wait

>>56818932
why can't you add the value of the spread at the price while backtesting?

>>56818975
+ most of the time the spread is almost the same!

>>56818317
Yes.

>>56818997
wow

>>56814774
You guys do know that “the price” is a function of people selling and buying right? A “pattern” of the price is just historic information of what happened in the past, what the price will be is determined by what people are willing to buy and sell it for in the future. They are correlated but the t0 price does not CAUSE the t1 price. If the central bank raises or lowers its interest rate the price will react, regardless of what your little pattern says.

>>56819000
I'm trying to grow this youtube channel as a practice channel before I make a channel on shitposting about politics in a tasteful way.

Like and subscribe man, or give me ideas on what you want to know about Forex trading and il'l make colorful video answers on them.

>>56818932
Also at candle close when your indicator flashes, by the time your bot starts to execute a market buy in the new time period, a thousand traders have already done the same and moved the price up beyond what backtesting thinks is your entry price. Same for selling but in reverse

>>56814774
>slippage
>spread
/thread

>>56819212
>swap

>>56814774
you need a foreskin to successfully trade forex
sorry OP

>>56814774
Just ask yourself, what would Erwin Rommel do?
Montgomery is listening in on you from Malta, you gotta do some chaotic shit to throw off their cheating.

>>56814774
just do the opposite when you go live.

>>56819276
swap fees.
there are brokers who literally kill your positions with overnight fees.

if you think you can just put on a swing trade position and let it ride for 1 month, think twice.
greedy bastards...

>>56819443
>trade like a market maker

if ur backtesting says its 93% accurate then how are you confused? it literally failed 7% of the time so why would it not fail again in the next signal? It could take years to get back to 93% accuracy or the backtesting data was beneficial to the strategy (printing trillions of $) compared to the present price action.

>>56818965
Tick data? can't i just download it using binance apy? it has data points as tiny as 5 seconds.

>>56814774
Have you factored for funding rates? Because those can vary considerably by broker, pair and side.

>>56820047
Lol yes, I've had very good positions have their profits cannabalized by swap fees. Literally pay 50% of profit on overnight swap. And it often works out that the swap fees are inversely correlated to any underlying trend