/biz/ - Business & Finance

that's a man

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

WTFWT

Oil bros, what the fuck happened?

>>>56529704
Please someone make this a bobo but keep the same expression

There's a reason they call it the powell pump

santa rally starts now

these journo niggers still begging for the inflation target to go to 3%
IT AIN'T HAPPENING RETARDS

Where are we?

I love women.

Is the meeting over or not?

>>56529736
They should have been NATGAS bros instead. Verification not required.

>>56529736
Please understand, a diaper change was necessary.

>>56529745
I'm at "it is what it is", still up a little for the year

Heres a couple shots

>>56529764
Kek

Is palantir gonna pump at earnings?

Bobros we are getting btfo again

>the progress is probably going to come in lumps and be bumpy
>prescription for misery

>>56529736
Nothing we are bottoming. Second Arab-Israeli war is knocking on the door and we have a Biden 79$ put we just can't lose.

what reporters see

Is KO going out of business?

wont you join me for a drink meester bond?

jpow pumping

>inflation expectations are in a good place
>public believes inflation will come down
>and they will. They are right
BULLISH

>>56529777
I guess thats the one Praise

me so sorry for being right about the bull. me algorithms just too accurate cant help it

>>56529777
>>56529764
See>>56529738
Photoshop bros where are you?

Is it too late to buy AMD?

>>56529783
Afraid so

On the one hand Janet is providing liquidity and Jerome is done hiking, on the other hand the economy doesn't look so hot going into the next quarter.

I think we get a Santa rally fakeout personally, but I'm not sure.

>no qt finance gf
why even live bros...

unrelated to jpow but I hate old people

>discount post-wall Jeanna
not looking good bros

Powell did his job and assuaged investors, calmed all the panic. V shaped recovery incoming.

Is David Soxl speaking after this?

Bobobros you told me that Jerome was going to hike interest rates to at least 10% and declare the US economy dead forever wtf is this??????????????????????????

I told you on Monday that selling SPY $410 puts was free money.
You didn't listen.
You argued with me.
I told you that Powell would come out trying to prop up the market, would not add fuel to the fire.
You didn't listen.
You could have made an 80% return in 3 days.

>>56529788
timstamp?!

This is when you should stop talking Jerome, don't fuck it up now

FUCKIJG STUPID. still bearish idgaf

>>56529842
interest rates cant go above 6% bud, the govenment wouldnt be able to service its debt otherwise lol bobos are the dumbest people on this earth

>>56529842
Well, he's not considering rate cuts and made it clear that rate hikes are still on the table. But the panic is gone as he let people know that they've got things handled.

Only a huge black swan could prevent a new bull market at this point.

so that's it? is the bottom in already?

>>56529844
I've been long indexes since Thursday actually.

>>56529867
that's a man

>>56529846
~3:04est
~tminus 15

>>56529833
>SOXL
those were good times

From a fundamental point of view; massive bank distress, record credit card debt, surging foreclosures and auto repos, bond market instability...bears are correct. But from a normie point of view(99% of market participants) the FED has everything under control, nothing to see here.

>PPT working overtime again

Bobros...? Not like this... it was supposed to keep being our turn...

>>56529877
priced in

>>56529867
Yes, a very nice bottom.

>>56529876
Gib Enid GF.

>>56529885
you can only price in what you understand. since Powell made it clear that they are tackling problems by the seat of their pants and deciding policy on a day by day basis, I don't think we know what to price in.

>conflict in the middle east will not have large economic impacts
LMT niggers btfo

>That big sigh from Powell
Everyone is fatigued with the jews

Just call him mr pump

>"oil has not really reacted to this yet"
Rate hikes are back on the menu!

>>56529907
yep. assuage fears. "we got this handled" makes everyone happy. those who can read between the lines understand that they don't really have any solutions other than wait and see.

FAGTMAN bros we're saved

>>56529917
>Rate hikes are back on the menu!
they were never taken off the menu

AAPL will be 200 by Friday

j pow was so fake hawkish we will pump so hard from this lol

>>56529921
Wow new ATHs are coming. Who could have guessed... definitely not bears kek.

WTFWT

markets will simply ignore fundamentals until banks start crashing on a large scale.

>>56529867
I don't think so but maybe

>>56529736
>Oil bros, what the fuck happened?
oil broke trend. sell

>>56529960
>banks start crashing on a large scale.
BTFP solves this

>>56529960
Not going to happen. All we've seen are guppie banks being swallowed by larger ones and nothing more. A banking consolidation and growth of centralization.

>>56529971
>BTFP solves this
>more debt fixes debt
right, cuz that's totally not inflationary

>>56529971
The BTFP is insolvent

>>56529966
Checked. Jannies are trannies that've chopped of their dinks, thus banning based bottom posters.

>>56529980
>Not going to happen
You sure about that, Chief?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/27/rising-wave-property-defaults-threatens-us-banks/
https://archive.is/GEZSA
>Office blocks purchased with debt remain half empty, 18 months after the end of the pandemic. Thousands of buildings will have to be torn down. Hundreds of regional banks are sitting on crippling losses that they yet to acknowledge.
>occupancy levels are still just 49pc of where they used to be
>America’s office stock has lost 40pc to 45pc of its pre-Covid value, or will have once market discovery exposes the damage already in the pipeline from two parallel shocks: shrinking rents and the most aggressive monetary tightening of modern times
>“We are starting to see distressed sales every day. Offices are selling for 50pc, 60pc or 70pc discounts. At these values the equity holders are wiped out, and lenders take a 30pc loss,”
>two-thirds of the leases have not yet come up for renegotiation. The full exodus has yet to happen.
>“We’re in the early innings. That’s the reality"
>$1 trillion of commercial property debt is coming due over the next year and a bit. The average fixed loan is 10 years so the debt maturing today was taken out in 2013 at around 3.5pc. It has to be refinanced at over 7.5pc
>The Fed has staunched the liquidity crisis since March with emergency lending but that buys only time. It does not tackle the deeper solvency crisis.
>“There are a lot of skeletons in the closet and I wouldn’t be surprised if another 200 small banks topple over. In fact, I fully expect another bank to fail at any time,” said Prof Van Nieuwerburgh.
>“If a couple of hundred banks get into trouble at the same time and there is another run on deposits, this could turn into a systemic crisis. There are some parallels with 2008"

but our banking system is sound and resilient, right?

>>56529960
>fundamentals
Damn we're on the next level of bear cope.

>>56529980
yes, but literally all banks, including the top 7 are totally insolvent. why do you think Dimon is dumping $141 milly worth?

whatcha lookin' at?

>>56529960
Won't happen when there's unlimited liquidity and no consequences

>>56529818
Buy puts

>>56529998
like I said before, the market at large ignores fundamentals and bases their decisions on muh feels, muh powell is gonna fix everything. the markets don't move straight up or straight down, fact is, we're still in a bear trend until we stop making lower lows and lower highs.

I went long on AMD with a x10 leverage

>>56530023
Yeah, I remember when I first started and learned how to read 10-ks and shit too.

>>56530007
>no consequences
no obvious ones yet. no one saw the GFC coming either. WHAT A SHOCK. Except for people who understand fundamentals saw it from a mile away.

>>56530003
One real Ugly woman Mr. Powell

i need a smart anon to explain the butterfly strategies to me!

>>56529877
financially illiterate retard here, but, it's it both?
>massive bank distress, record credit card debt, surging foreclosures and auto repos, bond market instability
isn't all of that CAUSED by the FED, and they are trying to revert the mess they caused?

You really thought you could defeat us didn't you Bobo

>>56530032
we expected a pump this week on the FOMC meeting. Enter powell to pat us all the head and tell it's all gonna be ok. Just as we expected. Fact remains, rate hikes are still on the table and powell phrased "this economy is still fucked" in the nicest way possible. But normies gonna norm. pump it!

BOBOIDS ARE YOU OK ARE YOU OK BOBOIDS? IM BACK BOBOIDS!

>>56530064
>But normies gonna norm. pump it!
And in the end, that's what matters. The sooner you hold on to that idea, the better.

>>56530053
>isn't all of that CAUSED by the FED, and they are trying to revert the mess they caused?
depends on who you ask. if you ask a normie they'll tell you inflation is the people's fault and the FED is doing everything it can to fix it. If you ask a person who understands economics, they'll tell you everything the FED is doing is intentional and planned to phase out of a failed/failing currency and into a new system.

>>56530046
kek

LMAO bobo

>>56530082
problem is, normies can pump a market, but they can't create positive market conditions, they can't eliminate compounding debt, they can't control dollar devaluation and they certainly can't fix the banks. So while we'll get a nice pump into the weekend, it won't last and the bear trend will continue.

>>56530048
theres a few.

If you have a price point in mind, you know its gonna hit and stay pinned, otm butterflies give you supreme leverage. 30:1 minimum.

but if you're talking a regular atm butterfly, you expect perfect crab, and when its finished you're fat on theta decay b/c all the deltas cancelled.

Its hyper slow, you're the last guy to see profit and its an ez way to get left holding a bag.
pretty much the roulette wheel of options.

>>56530048
you must tickle a butterfly in thailand so it flaps its wings

why the fuck are yields dropping like a rock

>>56529877
>massive bank distress
no such thing.
remember Deutsche Bank and how sure it was that the end is neigh?
>record credit card debt
working as intended.
>surging foreclosures and auto repos
...after collapsing, a slight retracement to the upside.
zoom out sometimes.
>bond market instability
no such thing.
only people with fundamental misunderstandings about the mechanism of trading and exchanging or other brainlets say this.

>>56530098
And next Wednesday, you'll have sewn together a new explanation why the market still floats. You fail to grasp the rules of this game are malleable. They can and will say whatever they need to say to keep people focused on returns.

>>56530098
It's called exit liquidity, that's what they're for.

Is there even a bobo thesis anymore? This pretty much guarantees the Santa rally. We have broken the downtrend and will now keep pumping. I honestly cannot imagine being a bobo right now as we have literally peaked when it comes to rates.
They are fuckin bureaucrats what do you not understand? If they can use the y/y effect to slowly very slowly erode the inflation, they fuckin will. Yes, we will have a high inflation for 2+ years, who cares? Strong economy can take and normies have substantial economical buffers to deal with this. The lower classes might be in a bit of a pickle but they matter not in the eyes of the market

>>56530116
powell instilled temporary confidence in the financial system by saying all the right things. investors nodded their heads like good boys and you're probably seeing a short lived pump in bond prices.

>>56530048
Imagine a butterfly like selling a straddle but with some risk management. So pick whatever stock you want to open the butterfly on and start by setting the short legs at the price you think the stock will be at expiration. Then set the long legs of the spread, 1 each respectively above and below the shorts. That's essentially the trade built intuitively. If you want to make it a true butterfly, make sure all the options are puts

>>56529854
"people" said that about 2% too lol

>>56530093
imagine being a bear at the beginning of the golden bull run

>>56530117
>no such thing.
>only people with fundamental misunderstandings about the mechanism of trading and exchanging or other brainlets say this.
so, the fact that the largest foreign holders of US debt have been dumping all year has nothing to do with bond market stability and faith in the dollar? Inflation just magically appears for no reason? I'm thinking you're the brainlet in this convo.

We are so back

>>56530126
My buffet, you haven't even hit the 200 day MA. Its too early to celebrate.

Isreal wanted 100B and they're getting 14B per the bill. Cancel the CancelCrash

>>56530126
Think the only real bear thesis now is that inflation will be sticky. But it's going to take some time to be obvious. No reason we can't rally through the rest of the year.

>>56529983
>inflationary
that's intentional

>>56530154
incredible ride.

>>56530120
>You fail to grasp the rules of this game are malleable.
I understand the markets quite well, and the entire basis of this market is the dollar aka debt. When the dollar can no longer support the markets, you get a collapse, which is what is currently underway. markets don't move straight up or straight down. there will always be pumps and spikes along the way. this is nothing more than a pump based on powell petting all the good boys on the head and telling them it will be ok.

>>56530001
If someone is willing to finance or buy that debt, then its not insolvent. That's the thing about free-market, there are suckers born every second in the world eventually someone somewhere will take the bag. The only thing that can stop it is some black-swan event forcing the closure of some or all global finance markets.

>>56530169
>>56530154
take profits soon my exit liquidity.

>>56530126
>We have broken the downtrend
zoom out, brainlet

>>56530150
>I'm thinking you're the brainlet in this convo.
You're grossly overestimating yourself.

>>56529854
>interest rates cant go above 6% bud, the govenment wouldnt be able to service its debt
I have news for you, anon

>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK
>ARE YOU OK BOBO
>ARE YOU OK

>>56530167
agreed. and we haven't see anything yet

>>56530185
I realize you think you're of special insight referencing macro and whatnot, but you still don't get this game is fake and gay. You're so fucking close to getting it, and I don't mean that in a demeaning and insulting way.

20 day ema is holding both spy and qqq

>>56530120
Excellent post.

>>56530196
Amazon broke the downtrend and JPow just re-affirmed it. Sure, technically it doesn't look all that positive but we will push through

>>56530186
>If someone is willing to finance or buy that debt, then its not insolvent.
the only one buying the debt is the one printing it. Foreign governments are divesting of their dollars because they're focused on strengthening their own currencies.

>>56530197
not an argument

>me watching the $40,000 in student loans I'm paying off that could go into the market
I'm gonna be finished by February but it hurts bros

>SOXX still gonna close below the 200 day moving average
When will it be time to reenter SOXL? Friday?

>>56530102
>>56530132
so if i'm reading this right, i should expect profit so long as its not at the current strike? and if i wanted to do the reverse, i would sell a put atm, and buy 2 otm in order to profit should the price stay atm?

>>56530207
ELECTRODOLLARS

>>56530207
again, it's easy to pump cheap money into a market and make it go up, that's what we've always done in the past. but that's no longer feasible when the currency you pump it with is on its deathbed. this is a last gasp for the dollar. wage wars, pump the markets, transfer tangible assets to the elites and then crash it.

>>56530150
Bro they are dumping because they literally are desperate for cash these and are having their own liquidity crises. You are a fucking retard for not realizing what they are going through or that they basically are doing the unfavorable thing of having bought high and are selling low.

>>56530222

I'm convinced this is no longer bear or bull market. Not even clown or crab market. This is something new, Cock and Ball Torture market
The CBT market will inflict pain upon the participants but they may cum regardless.
Thanks for listening to my postulation, I'll be back to give my dissertation later

overbought

>>56530238
BOBObros we are losing our women ffs. W-w-what do we do? We don't have a solid foundation anymore. Earnings are good and Apple will finish us off

>>56530238
>you just know

Turkey Trot Rally is a go!

>>56530245
He'll just seethe at your post and call you names.

>>56530245
of course that's exactly what they're doing and I've never said anything to the contrary.

>>56530234
forgot the image X_X

>>56530247
this is a market for swing traders to win in a big way. hodling with crush your balls. waiting for muh next bull market will mangle your cock. trade the charts, make money.

Ding ding ding! How did it go today anon?

>Bond yields
Fuckin hell are they completely dead. DXY has probably peaked and yields along with it. This confirms a Santa rally. We can dump after that, I don't care but we will get one. +10% by EOY

>>56530126
Don't care. Still not using banks. Still putting all my cash into debt buying (at any price), even if we go from 5% to 3% yield. Eventually, I'll buy a home in cash at this rate. I'd be happy with either owning SPY at a good price or a home. Might be a brainlet take, but I will not be led astray from my strategy as I'm trying to make a personal statement as well.

market on down or unto louds of wall
regards
balrog

it's over for bears.

This train might not stop before SPY ~$428.

>>56530290
Kill bobos. Behead bobos. Roundhouse kick bobos into the concrete. Slam dunk bobos into the trashcan. Crucify filthy bobos. Defecate in a bobos' food. Stir fry bobos in a wok. Launch bobos into the sun. Toss bobos into active volcanoes. Twist bobos heads off. Feed bobos to piranhas. Curbstomp bobos. Judo throw bobos into a wood chipper. Karate chop bobos in half. Pee in a bobos' gas tank. Crush bobos in a trash compactor. Trap bobos in quicksand. Liquefy bobos in a vat of acid. Eat bobos. Dissect bobos. Stomp bobos skulls with steel toed boots. Cremate bobos in the oven. Lobotomize bobos. Grind bobos fetuses in the garbage disposal. Drown bobos in goulash grease. Vaporize bobos with a ray gun. Kick old bobos down the stairs. Feed bobos to alligators. Slice bobos with a katana. Strap bobos to an artillery shell. Use bobos as tank lubricant. Strangle bobos. Draft bobos. Throw bobos into the sun. Human centipede bobos for energy. Report bobos to the IRS. Van bobos. Drop bobos down a volcano. Defecate in a bobos' nostrils. Give bobos a permanent pink eye. Physically invert bobos. Point an ebay certified for home use laser in a bobos' eyes. Condemn bobos to prison. Castrate bobos. Castrate the bobos' pets. Remove the bobos' limbs. Lobotomize bobos. Ask the bobos for directions and suckerpunch them. Squeeze a bobos' balls with a vice grip. Feed bobos to a rottweiler. Gift bobos a shitbull rescue. Feed bobos to bulls. Steam fry bobos. Leave bobos inside a washing machine on highest heat. Not in minecraft bobos. Expell bobos to india. Tumble dry bobos. Cut off a bobos' nipples. Keep bobos in petting zoos. Make bobos blind and death. Use bobos to clear minefields.

>>56530305
YOU SHALL NOT PASS

PYPLbros how are we feeling?

>>56530306
HH

SANTA CLAUS RALLY!!!!!!!!!!!

>>56530297
Take advantage of the Santa rally and you'll make more money

>>56530306
America is back BROTHER

>>56530234
>>56530274
Generally speaking you would sell the middle strike and buy the wings in a butterfly. Almost any trade opinion that can be expressed with the reverse is better done with some other strategy. So just focus on the former for now. If you want to use butterflys effectively then you need to figure out what price you think the underlying will be at and when then sell 2 puts at that price and expiration date. Then buy 2 more puts, one above and one below as risk management and to lower the amount of collateral necessary to open the trade. Volatility ETPs like VXX and UVXY have very predictable downtrends in price that lend them to targeting with butterfly spreads. Experiment with modeling some of those in ToS for now

>>56530290
good, up 10 large.

>>56530244
If your fiat argument hinges on dollars being fake and gay, what is stopping them from just going Calvinball and changing up the rules?

>>56530266
>so, the fact that the largest foreign holders of US debt have been dumping all year has nothing to do with bond market stability and faith in the dollar?
You literally ignored why they are doing it and wrote it off as being a bearish sentiment. Countries like China are forced to sell their US bonds because they are in fucking crises mode right now with their financial situation. Like fuck they are doing it as an act of desperation. Everyone fucking knows US bonds are valued because they will print money. Jerome Powell isn't a fucking retard, he just waits until the absolute last minute to do shit until people are begging him to do something so he can pretend to put his superman cape on and "save the day" like the clout chasing nigger he is and everyone will praise him for it.

>it really was as simple as "October is red, november is green"

>>56530341
Tom Clancy predicted this.

>>56530290
+2.69%

QCOM bros we're back

>>56529983
It's not, in any way shape or form. In the long term (2 years) it's actually deflationary since the banks will be paying fines on the HTM bonds they would otherwise be collecting yields from.

All in TARK at open.

>>56530252
>

MELI is doing pretty good

>VIX crushed
>but EMs soar 5% to the SPY 1% move
>oil doesn't care
>REITs don't care
gundlach wins again.

>>56530290
down 0.5% and i didn't even trade anything. honestly, to this day i can't decide if i like rin, or sakura more. rin was my first tsundere and i think she's the best portrayal of one. sakura is the typical dandere that falls for the mc because he's nice, but she's curvier.

>>56530332
my understanding would be to use the condor if i want to reverse the butterly correct?

>emerging market bonds up 1.5%

>>56530290
+0.49%

>>56530274
thats an inverse butterfly.

in a regular you sell the middle and buy the wings
the wings are usually 1 std dev away, sometimes 2 if you're greedy.

your image is essentially a cheap straddle. You're prolly 60/40. you're risking 250 to make 200.

>permadoomers BTFO
>Fed achieving soft landing
>no more rate hikes
>inflation cooling
>unemployment record lows
>earnings beats everywhere
>GDP up
>banks are stable
>wars are nothingburgers
>bonds are nothingburgers
>Bidenomics is working
>Drumpf going to prison
doomer retards are almost certainly all meme-stock baggots at this point.
MARKETS NEVER CRASHING

>>56530382
>my understanding would be to use the condor if i want to reverse the butterly correct?
The reverse is basically saying you think the market will go up or down significantly you just don't know which. I would be inclined to buy a straddle in that case. They work especially well as earnings plays which is where most people use them

>>56530338
>If your fiat argument hinges on dollars being fake and gay,
of course dollars are fake and gay. dollars are nothing more than debt. they have no intrinsic value. and not that the FED has printed so many of them, they've become inflated and that inflation will continue until their demise. the entire world knows this which is why they're all phasing out of dollars.

ROKU
DASH

WAGMI

LMAO

imagine falling for the fud last week

I loaded up on calls like a gorilla, printing money from here until christmas playboy

>>56530402
Yep! America is number one! Never going down! Biden 2024!

>>56530402
>we just keep winning biden bros
Trust the plan!

>>56530409
>which is why they're all phasing out of dollars.
And replacing them with what? I seem to recall the BRICSbux fizzling because, as one member pointed out, it would require a central bank issuance and no members wanted that. So, tell me, what's our alternative currency?

>>56530339
China and Japan are the two largest foreign holders of US dollars. China is dumping because war is coming and they're bolstering BRICS. Japan is dumping dollars because they are attempting to avert a currency crisis of their own. these countries are dumping their dollars at a huge loss, which tells you exactly how much faith the world has in dollars.

Society continues to be an openly immoral scam where glowies are permitted to steal from everyone.

>>56530402
correct

>>56530367
>In the long term (2 years) it's actually deflationary since the banks will be paying fines
this won't happen. this current system won't last 2 years.

just got home, what the fuck happened to the bonds market?

>>56530449
Okay buddy.

>>56530402
its already happened

Powell: growth expanded more than expected.
Reporters: *silence*
none of them asked him what created the expansion.

Felt good being ultra long SVIX during the dip and now ultra long QLD. I'm gonna make it

>>56530451
j pow basically said rates are going to drop q2 next year so all the money is escaping the crashing bonds and flooding into the market

>>56530451
You know our goofy resident poster who posts that undertaker wrestling guy? The guy who all the time fakes dead then all the sudden comes back to life in the match? Yeah, that.

>>56530439
You fucking moron both are having a currency crises that's why they are both doing it.

>>56530290
+0.33%
Guessing tomorrow will be slightly red

>>56530461
>murica gonna last forever

>>56530469
>CNBC tier fuckwit cover for what's really happening which is Janet Yellen told banks they can't sell today if they want good deals on their little hush hush buyback program

>>56530393
>>56530403
setting up my hypothetical trade with straddles instead of butterflies, all i'm seeing in difference is how much i limit risk/reward between the two strategies.

Paypal is back. It's so fucking back. We won.

>>56530470
A good pullback is always nice. It gives us room to go higher. Regardless, I'm still buying at any price.

>>56530471
China's reasons are different than Japan's. Once China attacks taiwan, they will be cut off from the swift system, just like Russia. which means their US dollars will be worthless. So they're selling them now.

>this current system won't last 2 years.

>>56530497
>Regardless, I'm still buying at any price.
This anon gets it.

>>56530431
they can settle in gold, using the USD price until they establish SDRs.
at the boundary of their economic zone they can permit gold to flow out, but within BRICS its just an accounting entry. they never settle it, it just tells them how much of something else -- real goods -- needs to cross borders within the zone to balance trade.
why can they allow gold to flow out? its dollar price can't be crushed, because the US fiscal situation is upside down now. and it can't skyrocket either -- or at least, the US will do everything in their power to stop that -- because the US can't afford to pay full price for that gold.
the entire US system is predicated on maintaining an ever-increasing trade deficit with ROW. if gold skyrockets in USD, its too easy for ROW to drain the US of everything it has.

>>56530476
Nothing lasts forever kiddo, but America on the whole is more broadly stable than anything else out there, despite what your favorite youtube doomer/russian propaganda proclaims.
Even Americas worst enemies got 95% of their foreign exchanges locked up in dollars. That alone should tell you who they really think is going to make it, and who's not.

so long bonds are a no brainer after the 40% drop right?

>CRL
Maybe I should buy this mouse-breeding company. Everyone needs mice.

>>56530290
Not good but I'm optimistic.

>>56530489
and once again, forgot image

>>56530496
Paypal is a ponzi scheme. If they find out you post here they will steal your money. Check the TOS, kid

PYPL bros this looks positive

>>56530514
>Precious metals
Ah yes, I would trust China's PM holdings. The same China who has a history of alloy shenanigans and tungsten cored bars, that China.

>>56530489
ya ones defined the other isn't. you get way more leverage with the defined ones but but straddles have thicc tail risk.

Which if you're planning on owning the underlying anyway its fine. but if its just a one time thing, I'd buy the wings.

>>56530489
The difference between a short straddle and a traditional butterfly is the amount of collateral needed. The butterfly is much more efficient. A short straddle also exposes you to infinite loss.

>>56530538
no one cares about the thing you're referring to outside of your /pol/ bubble

>>56530517
>Nothing lasts forever kiddo, but America on the whole is more broadly stable than anything else out there
not even close to being true. China has sweetheart trade deals all over the world, a massive military and a new currency that includes the bulk of global GDP. Russia has infinite resources. Hell, even Brazil is more stable than america. America is the most hated country in the world, behind Israel. the dollar is being phased out around the world. america grows weaker by the day. socially it's a disaster, economically, it's collapsing.

>>56529787
>>inflation expectations are in a good place
>>public believes inflation will come down
>>and they will. They are right
This. It's over for bobo.

>>56530290
Sitting cashgang atm, debating weather to jump in or wait. Looking forward to these retard bulls getting caught by iv drip, gonna be fun.

>>56530502
No it's not. You seriously have not been paying attention to China's ongoing financial crises and their retarded real estate bubble and how they are trying to prevent a run on their own banks right now. You know how bearish retards such as yourself joked US citizens wouldn't be able to withdraw money from their banks at some point well that has been literally happening in China as of late. It's fucking ironic morons like you buy into their China "stronk" narrative without ever having been to the country to see the retarded dog and pony show it is over there or even pay attention to what is going over there locally or even how their fucking currency is trading with the usd the past few months because that's a dead give away too they are having more issues under the hood. You are huffing your own farts right now anon on what you think you know when you don't.

>>56530549
so? you're not russia. that's the great thing about gold: there's no counterparty risk.
no one cares what your imagination tells you about chinese gold holdings; the central banks of russia and china simply visit each other and conduct a mutual audit.

Reloaded on TUP calls before the AH pump, now that that white nigger Jerome is out of the way, short squeezing can being

Explain to me how there's not obviously a moratorium on large financial institutions selling.

>>56530574
>and their retarded real estate bubble and how they are trying to prevent a run on their own banks right now.
why are you talking about america? I thought we were talking china?

>>56530533
so straddles are priced at the expected move.
If you're using the default here. the light grey is +/- 1std dev. see how the profitability lines up with that. straddle in a big mkt move is a 33% trade. the fatter your delta the better. its directionally neutral. really good for bear markets where the wild swings are constant.

IT'S REALLY CHARMING WITH THE MODERATORS AND JANITORS OF 4CHAN USE THE SITE TO HELP GLOWIES SQUAT ON OUR LIVES AND RUN INTERFERENCE AGAINST ANYONE WHO TRIES TO DISCUSS THE ACTUAL REAL WORLD RIGHT NOW

DIS earnings next week, don't forget to buy puts.

>>56530514
>BRICS
>Gold standard
The hallmark talking points of macro tourists.
You don't peg a currency to a commodity unless it's heading for weimar territory, you dummy. Even then, you've sealed your economic fate to a ticking deflationary timebomb.

>>56529971
They still lose money with BTFP, it's a subsidized loan but they still have to pay current rate. So a bond on their books will still eat whatever rate based losses it has, this just lets them delay the losses for longer without being forced to file bankruptcy immediately. But if rates stay this high for the duration of their book they'll still wind up realizing the loss. And if rates get higher they'll wind up losing even more with the BTFP than they otherwise would have just outright selling.

YOU'RE SUCH MORAL, ALTRUISTIC PEOPLE LET ME TELL YOU
>HIGHER CALLING

>>56530585
>why are you talking about america? I thought we were talking china?
OK you are retarded pro china shill that is clueless about their real estate bubble. Way to out yourself. Not worth engaging if you don't even know how much more retarded their real estate bubble is compared to the west's

PayPal needs to go back to $70 or I'm going to kill myself.

>>56530576
>the central banks of russia and china simply visit each other and conduct a mutual audit.
lmao this is EXACTLY the problem I was talking about earlier with the BRICS members actually not trusting each other. They know damn well the company they keep.

>>56530469
>j pow basically said rates are going to drop q2 next year
cutting rates into a hot economy
lol,
lmao even

>>56530593
iger must be sweating. When do they realize the sale of hulu anwyays?

>>56530618
see >>56530313
stay mad and stay bro bobo

>>56530598
>You don't peg a currency to a commodity
gold and silver have been money for over 5000 years. 700+ "strong and resilient" fiat currencies have collapsed over the past several hundred years. Wanna know why? Because they de-tethered from gold and silver and start printing fake money.

>>56530564
Okay I thought we we're discussing actual numbers instead of imaginary 'my dad can beat up your dad' type of argument. Take a nap bitch and let the grownups talk.

>>56530626
There will be no rates cuts and the indices will still rise.
You seem very stupid.

>>56530609
>i'm gonna ignore the 12 trillion dollar commercial real estate bubble in the US.
>I'm gonna ignore the massive deposit outflows from banks(bank run) that the FED has been covering up with the BTLP

The United States as we knew it is finished. They're just going lie about economic data as everything slowly falls apart, and use inflation to pump the market in nominal terms.

>>56530624
The deadline for buying remaining shares of Hulu was supposed to be within the last month but it's been pushed at least once. They also have a second battle within the board of directors, and Iger himself said that shit was worse than he expected even though he was only gone for 3ish years.
Fully expect the sale of ABC within the next 3 years. ESPN is too profitable to sell in the near future and Iger has said as much. Parks will probably keep going steady, the biggest indicator of price action will be if streaming becomes profitable.

>>56530641
im rich af though from accurate predictions, how about you bobo?

>>56530578
quantity, price, strike & date ?

>>56530628
>gold and silver have been money for over 5000 years
You're in a cult!

>>56530551
>>56530552
>butterflies for staying ATM
>straddles for uncertain volatile swings up/down
>credit spreads for premium profit on certain directions
so what are debit spreads good for? really appreciate the knowledge here, i really am learning from smg!

>>56530469
>j pow basically said rates are going to drop q2 next year
he never said that. he said they're not considering rate cuts at this time and they will play things by ear.

>>56530629
That guy is the unironic pro China retard I mentioned before who literally peddles the CCP Kool aid. He is a clueless fucking moron who is going to be blind sided by China shitting in its own bed because he doesn't bother seeing the current events unfolding there.

>>56530628
You don't know about the Denarius, do you?

>>56530593
Give me a non-conservative chud reason to short DIS into earnings. Are their top-line earnings numbers that bad?

>>56530629
>i'm just gonna throw up a strawman and walk away

>>56530553
ok keep throwing money at it go buy some Bud Light stock while youre at it

>>56530656
barter goods

>>56530658
read between the lines newfag

>>56530656
>You're in a cult!
you have no argument

>>56530652
>streaming becomes profitable.
Still amazed they have what they have for streaming with the dogshit they put out. It will continue to go down though as people wake up to the dog shit like ashoka.

>>56530674
show me where he said rate cuts q2 of next year. you can't because he never said that you faggot shill.

>>56530658
I think he also said that QE was back on the table as well as a target 3~4% inflation. Santa rallllllllllly

>>56530688
he said it, im not going to rewatch the speech to find you the time stamp but it was right about when the market recovered from the sell off

>>56530658
>he never said that. he said they're not considering rate cuts at this time and they will play things by ear.

>>56530645
>BTLP
You mean BTFP. Yeah, that was 90 billion. Which, in the grand scheme of things is fucking nothing.
Want to know how much Chinas shadow banking sector is as a percentage of their nominal GDP? 90%.
Could you possibly imagine what would happen if it went belly up, which it is doing as we speak? Actually no, you probably couldn't because you're overdosed on CCP/Kremlin copium.

>>56530696
he never said it, you lying fag. he said word for word "they're not considering rate cuts." He also said they are revising policy on a week to week, meeting to meeting basis. I watched the entire press conference. so get fucked.

>>56530645
Bro we are talking about China's real estate bubble right now not the US and why it's bad is because it's even bigger and it's built on a ponzi scheme of loans to houses, apartments, condos not even fucking built with the money that was supposed to go and build them and instead was just a fucking system party members of the CCP were using to steal wealth from the pleb chinese that's now spilt into a liquidity crises for their banks. Holy fuck you are such a bad faith disingenuous bitch

>>56530690
Jerome said that their new target is over 10% and that inflation is still out of control. He said that he expects a severe economic contraction in Q1 2024.

>>56530710
>You mean BTFP. Yeah, that was 90 billion.
do you know the reverse repo market? it's in the trillions and climbing. debt that banks can never repay, which is why they're all insolvent.

Im drinking CELH energy drinks but shorting the stock.

>>56530713
haha you mad bobo, he finna cut rates and all that bond money is going to flood into the market. 10k sp500 in 5 years

>>56530715
>it's built on a ponzi scheme
just like the bond market

>>56530758
I'm not a bear, I'm a swing trader. I make money regardless of the markets go up or down. and It's unfortunate that I had to call you out for lying, but I believe in accountability. what you said it a flat out lie, end of story.

>>56530745
>moves the goalpost,
The fuck are you talking about? RRP is essentially just an MM liquidity sink that has been draining since April.
You're out of your fucking element.

>>56530759
This niggas based and all you retards trying to paint him as some china shill makes him even more based.

>>56530759
Bro you are retarded, you are literally comparing apple and oranges in the most disingenuous way to deflect from the point. The World will ALWAYS have more faith in the bond market than it does in china's market. Holy fucking shit you are dumb even on the way you try and deflect

>>56530792
i am right and you are wrong get fucked bobo

>>56530745
actual low iq
you don't even know what the reverse repo market is
>>56530759
>everything I don't understand is a ponzi scheme!
>>56530803
no hes just another retarded terminally online doomer who can barely regurgitate the word vomit he reads from rightwing propaganda

“The fact is the committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all. We're not talking about rate cuts,” Powell said. “We're still very focused on the first question, which is 'have we achieved a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time, sustainably?" - J. Powell

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-november-fed-rate-decision.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20fact%20is%20the%20committee,%25%20over%20time%2C%20sustainably%3F'

>>56530792
>I'm not a bear, I'm a swing trader. I make money regardless of the markets go up or down. and It's unfortunate that I had to call you out for lying, but I believe in accountability. what you said it a flat out lie, end of story.

>>56530803
>This niggas based
Based how? He's retarded and keeps bringing up bullshit talking points which he doesn't even know what they are to begin with.
>BUHT WADDABOUT BTFL?
>okay I got owned, but WADDBOUT REPO!?
>repeat

>>56529818
Recession Jeanna

Feds are trying to game the sentiment bots. This whole market, nay whole country, is fake and gay.

>>56530724
>Jerome said that their new target is over 10% and that inflation is still out of control.
Emorej ni lortnoc. si revo %21.

>>56530598
>>56530617
you two don't understand the world you live in.
when russia and china can share with each other the lies they've told the ROW -- because it's more expedient to do so than it is to continue separately being shoved around by the US -- they will do so. very simple, very cold calculation about the balance of power.
reflect on the fact that you are trying to read tea leaves about what goes on in the minds of world leaders to justify your "macro" view when you already know that government leaders collude regularly in dozens of smaller ways.

>>56530812
the point was, someone said 'murica is the strongest nation in the world. Uh, no it's not. And I showed you why it's not. It's not the strongest and it's currently collapsing, regardless of what the gaggle of normies on /smg/ think.

>>56530657
Debit spreads are good for a few things. One is when you have a directional opinion but want to minimize the effect of swings in IV. Another is when you have a specific price and expiration for some call or put you want but buying the option outright costs more than you're willing to spend. The spread gives you a similar trade but cheaper. A debit spread is also good when you have an opinion on both the direction of a price and the extent the price will go. Say you think AAPL will rise but not more than 220. You could buy a call debit spread with 200 and 220 strikes. Other anons may have some more good stuff about debit spreads. As a general rule I don't make directional plays with options. Instead I use them as a diversifying strategy that isn't correlated with the returns on equities hence rarely do I open straight up debit spreads

>>56530863
>normies on /smg/

>>56530629
https://merchantmachine.co.uk/china-vs-us/
amateur hour up in here.

SLAM EM HULKSTER

>>56530863
No one ever said that, China is literally collapsing though and you want to ignore it. I told you why China is selling US bonds but you want to promote the whole CCP narrative that it's not because they are experiencing their own currency crises and are doing it just like Japan. You are dumb man.

Sirs I thought XOM was bullish why is it tanking

>>56530848
she threw him the softball he wanted. "no, we're not considering a recession at this time." markets jump for joy, even though anyone with the most elementary understanding of economics knows that a recession is literally unavoidable. but normies gonna norm. pump it!

had green dream yesterday. market has a bull day today.

>tfw the bottom was in october 26th
>around the same time it bottomed last year which was october

Hope you didn't miss your chance to buy in this time around, anon.

>>56530943
Lower high.

>>56530893
kek imagine being this delusional

>>56530855
>very cold calculation about the balance of power.
Wow, sounds very cool.
>reflect on the fact that you are trying to read tea leaves about what goes on in the minds of world leaders
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony
If your reading comprehension wouldn't be so shit, you would realize that our retarded friend here (and you) are doing exactly that, with some sprinkled imaginary scenarios in between. I don't care for your chest-beating hypotheticals.

>>56530912
china is going to takeover Taiwan. there is no argument about this. when they do, they will be cut off from the swift system, making their massive dollar holdings worthless. so they are liquidating now to avoid that. China is not collapsing in the slightest. their economy is in turmoil, but that's a global issue caused by the dollar inflation contagion.

>>56530628
>gold and silver have been money for over 5000 years
There's one thing you're forgetting though. A "pound" quickly went from being an actual pound of silver to an ounce and then less. Money will always do this.

What a worthless stock market from a worthless country. I'd rather long the yen

>>56530984
Buy the top I guess lmfao.

I got next bake

>>56530965
>china is going to takeover Taiwan. there is no argument about this.

>>56530983
gold and silver don't lose value. the paper currency loses value the more it becomes separated from the real money(gold and silver.)

>>56530927
>Senate democrats urge FTC to examine Exxon, Chevron deals...
means a bunch of senators are selling both cause they knew ahead - nothing burger

>>56530955
Heh.... You mean higher low

>>56531003
you are correct

>>56530963
>G7 and G20 meetings are hypothetical/imaginary scenarios
>the world bank, IMF, IPCC, OPEC, UN... these all just like, sit there, dude. they don't even coordinate anything together
can't be helped

>>56531020
just a lucky guess

>>56530965
>china is going to takeover Taiwan. there is no argument about this
would you say this is gonna happen, in maybe Two Weeks?

>>56530849
Fake until you make it

>>56531037
Yeah, I'd say in about a couple weeks.

>>56531037
biggest date i've seen from shills and warhawks was sometime in 2027, mainly deals with demographics and the amount of fighting age men.

>>56531004
Yes but long term any currency even MADE of gold and silver will be divorced from the metal, its value floats regardless. You can't stop this.

>>56531025
>OPEC
Saudi Arabia and Iran will both be official members of BRICS on January 1, 2024.

>>56530965
>china is going to takeover Taiwan. there is no argument about this
Their best and only option to do this would be through subterfuge instead of war. Invading Taiwan in hot war would trigger more countries than just the US to step in. If they invade it's because of economic desperation. You are a total moron

>China is not collapsing
So you are just going to ignore what is currently happening in China. All the stuff I spoonfed you that retards like you said would happen in America but is happening right NOW in China. You are a total moron

>>56531037
no. it'll be someone between 13 and 15 days.

>>56531066
>You can't stop this.
of course you can. just stop printing more paper currency.

>>56531001
Make it fujoshi themed please.

>>56531076
I'm screen capping this for future laughs.

>>56531073
>Their best and only option to do this would be through subterfuge instead of war.
likely they will choke the island off from the rest of the world and get them to surrender. but I don't rule out a hot war. who is a threat to them? the US? no, they're tied up in two other wars. Japan? no, they already know what a nuke feels like. there is no one to stop them.

baking.

I was a little bit cranky that NaSdawg has outperformed my portfolio today but all this bobo seethe makes it ok

>>56531124
see you in the next thread

I can't believe that gold standard people still exist.

The toothpaste is never going back into the tube; state bank controlled depreciation is an immensely powerful tool for managing the economy and stimulating growth.
I cannot ever imagine a situation where creditors would have sufficient political capital to claw back that financial repression from the state.
If anything financial repression is actually at a relative low watermark after a decline since the 1980s, and will likely turn right back up again going forward.

I think that after a prolonged period of persistent inflation, the state will develop new and more targeted financial policies to manage growth and consumption in the economy, compared to managing the very broad and untargeted effect of interest hikes and cuts.

>>56531084
>just stop printing more paper currency.
Do you even realize that a currency, fiat or commodity, must be inflationary in nature for it to work as a currency?
Inflation isn't good, but it's not the end of the world. Deflation is VERY fucking bad - it destroys economies faster than you can jump on Putin's cock.
Without inflation you would have no incentive to spend your money, that means companies will be making less money, and your mommy will lose her job at the sweatshop, which means less spending - and on, and on.

>>56531076
>no. it'll be someone between 13 and 15 days.
I heard it was between 12 & 16 days.

>>56531133
you wont

>>56531111
>a country who's economy is heavily dependent on foreign trade
>hur dur they will just choke em out, all the other countries won't notice and taiwan will just fall
>I'm just going to ignore the financial issues they are having from the 80% drop of foreign money investing in their economy
>no one's a threat to them
Bro are you a MASSIVE moron with no clue how the world works.

>>56531180
>>56531111
Seriously man you are so DUMB!

>>56531111
damn my nigga got quads for posting like a retard
this site is fucked

>>56531133
use a trip pls so i can filter you

>>56531145
inflation and deflation are moderated by supply/demand economics, and yes, they fluctuate.

>>56531216
>54pbtid

>>56531212
what should my name be?

>>56531216
So you don't even understand economics 101, but you've got the whole geopolitical thing figured out. Cool.

>>56531145
The dollar was deflationary for the second half of the 19th century and not only did the US do extremely well but a number of revolutionary technologies were created.

Don't be such a braindead nigger.

>>56530244
And how do you know that`s what's happening now? You could have made the same point 12 months ago and lost a shit ton of money if you played that opinion. What the other anon told you is true, its all fake and gay. Reality doesn't matter the vast majority of time. Just look at $cvna going 10x despite still being the same shit co it was at the start of the year. And even if you're right and this is the end of the entire financial system as we know it what the fuck will your puts or whatever you hold be worth if your right? "Its the end of the world" is the worst basis for a position there is, cause even if your right you wont get paid.

>>56531267
>18th century revolutionary war technologies
breech-loaded rifle, the submarine, and invisible ink

Did you guys fuckin bake or what?

I said I was going for a nap, turned out to be a 3 hour slumber. What did Powell say to make the markets pump? Man, I had a long position friday. Should have kept it as a hedge as I said, but I dislike trying "new" things, as it fucked me a little two times this year. Anyways, at least I shorted way more cautiously.

>>56531413
He said "let the wild pumpus begin!"

>>56530451
NIGGERS

>>56531407
Not baking is a time-honored /smg/ tradition

>>56531407
>>56531219
>>56531219
>>56531219

>>56530831
Kek.