/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56310135
Indexes consistently outperform most mutual funds.

>>56310186
I'm talking about timing index funds.

>>56310194
Of course you are. Youre a degenerate gambler like everyone else on this site. Its possible to time, but you will cocnsistently fail to time, because you are not an advanced trading algorithm. You, are a fucking moron. The sooner you realize that, the sooner you can start making money.

>>56310226
Waiting for the price to drop to below average of last 6 months isn't gambling, dumbass. I'm just annoyed I haven't done this since the start.

>>56310135
Go ahead. Do this strat. Wait "just 6 months" for a dip that never comes and just sit on your inflation-rotted cash. Sounds like you got it all figured out dude.

>>56310309
The dip ALWAYS comes. You can take any six month period and there will always be a point where it dips below the average of the previous six month.

>>56310135
Timing the market beats time in market. Imagine buying top of 2017 and holding until now vs a chad that bought bottom 2018 and sold too 2021. Cope and seethe

>>56310318
Exactly. This isn't even stock picking, it's literally waiting until a dip. You can even set it to do it automatically.

>>56310318
>>56310326
Post your trade histories showing you are capable of doing this consistently. Yep. Thought so.

>>56310135
>Person B waits until a dip
How do you know you're at the bottom? What are you doing in the mean time? What do you do if you mistime it?

>>56310326
Actually if you really want to you could just write short dated puts on your average price that you're waiting for and get paid to do this, of course then you're buying at the average not bellow it but you get the VRP.
That's how I like to DCA.

Speaking of timing the market I have something interesting to tell:

I'm in quite a few paid teles and discords of signal sharers

And I've been secretly keeping track of their real PnL (not the successes they keep track of)

And I've actual found a few of their wallets

Most PnL is in the negative and the wallets have been consistently losing money

Trading is a joke. Always has been.
Hodling is the only way to make it.

>it's completely random
>but it happens every 6 months
Retarded thread. Is person A who dca's magically not buying the dip as person B? Person B just times the market perfectly because he's based and redpilled?

>>56310351
>>56310371
Grab the data from the last 20 years of any index funds. Simulate
A - person buying every six months and waiting 5 years (30 data points)
B - person buying when it's x% under the average of last x months (you decide the parameters here) starting from the same investment points as scenario A

Person B spends less time invested but on average earns more. Dividends make zero difference.

>>56310387
It's not perfect timing, it's just an arbitrary threshold. You can simulate the strategies from the last 10 years with a simple script.

>>56310135
It means poorfags gonna poor, because rich people have been playing this game for centuries. Yields were insane for centuries, getting 20% or more annually from the east india company (e.g. Dutch east india company had an AVERAGE 18% return for 200 fucking years, that means doubling your money every 4 years for you retards out there), the trade in Argentina, Americas for 100s of years. Time in the market beats timing the market.

Try it. The reason you will fail is because you have no way of calculating when the "dip" is.
>Just buy when it's below 5% average price
What do you mean average price? The moving average? Which moving average? You will simply miss out on the days where the most bullish price action happens because you're sat waiting for a dip, and when that x% dip finally comes you've already missed out

>>56310796
>You will simply miss out on the days
There is nothing to miss. The money sitting in your bank for 6 months won't cost you anything, because 6 months of dividends is a very small amount relative to the gains you make by the waiting strategy.

You people don't get it. There is literally nothing to lose by waiting a few months for a good time. The dumb investor invests when they get paid. The money gained from investing earlier is negligible.

>>56310803
You've missed out on 6 months of capital gains

>>56310810
Check how much you gain in 6 months with 50k in a typical index fund

Timing the market to gain a more comfortable seat to spend time in the market is better than only trying to time the market for immediate profit and blindly DCAing to spend more time in the market

the point is to be continuously buying so you are buying 'tops' sure but you're also buying dips and staying exposed during the best days, over a long enough timeline this will beat any other strategy

>>56310135
It was great financial advice on the upslope:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdXdaIsfio8

>>56310135
You are correct. Normies can't understand the fact that almost no one is a skilled trader != holding index funds is risk-free gain so long as you hold long enough

There are several periods in stock market history where you would have flat to severe negative gains for years or even over a decade. 1999 top buyers theoretically weren't positive until 2013. You can make the argument that you're best off with some portion of capital always invested since the all time SPX chart is basically up only, fine, but if you are remotely competent there's no reason to sit thru a decade long -55% drawdown

>>56310135
>>56311739

>>56311789
>After 60 or 70 years, returns are relatively stable, but this time frame is longer than the relevant horizon for many retirement plans

Exactly. Gud image anon

>>56310309
>oh no! inflation is going to eat away at my savings
>invest in index fund
>index goes down, lose money
>inflation makes whatever money left worth even less
>pay the government 10-30% in tax just to get your money back
Nah man I'm good with my modest 5% in my high yield savings account. Most people aren't making money in the market now. The current game is trying to lose as little money as possible. If you're making money good for you but it's just lucky gambling and the house will win.

>>56310135
That’s quite true. Adopting dca strategy now yields amazing returns later on. My bags of rsr, fun and ocean will be a testimony to this fact

>>56310386
>pajeets doing crypto signal telegrams arent making money trading
>therefore no one makes money trading in any asset class

>>56311789
how much does this change if you use tax exempt methods of investing like S&S ISA in the UK?
also how is he calculating fees when some charge more than others?
interesting image nonetheless

>>56310226
> Its possible to time, but you will cocnsistently fail to time
you need to realize the phrase is meant for mass adoption. its not possible for everyone to buy a dip. if someone can statistically distinguish their behavior in any way (for example, proving they can buy a dip) they are better off using that distinguishment to profit instead of following braindead advice for the masses.

this is 4chan, theres plenty of distinguished weirdos here

>>56310135
>> time in the market beats timing the market because... IT JUST DOES OKAY

>>56311988
I already said I did an analysis with data from a few index funds. Also someone posted an interesting image.

>>56312056
get a life loser

>>56312942
wow so insightful you moron it's not like i get paid to act like a prick who just sits at home all day insulting random people online it is you who should get a life loser

>>56313330
oh no someone's feelings got hurt did i hurt your little feelings with my words boo hoo cry me a river you whiny pussy i'm not a loser like you i'm an angry man with nothing to lose and i'm going to be angry and insulting to everyone i come in contact with because that's how i roll you soft little crybaby

>>56313502
hey man don't be such a jerk

you're not a badass you're an entitled douche with anger management issues your life sucks because you're a loser with no self-respect who needs to talk down to people to make his pee pee feel big also your mom sucks you smell bad and look stupid

>>56313687
f*ck u
i'm a big angry man and i can do whatever i f*cking want u don't no sh*t about me

i'm a bad motherf*cker u don't wanna mess with me boy

i'll f*cling kill u
i swear to f*ckin' god i'll crush ur head in with my bare hands

>>56313851
listen up you little turd i am the toughest guy on the block so listen up i am a very angry man and i can do whatever i want you don't know anything about me you little punk and you don't want to mess with me boy

>>56314009
listen here you little twerp i've got my ears open and i'm ready to beat some ass i will not take kindly to being called a turd a punk or any other kind of garbage i am the angriest man alive and i will show you who you're dealing with

>>56314181
listen up you little punk i've got my ears open and i'm ready to beat some ass i won't tolerate being called a turd or any other kind of rubbish

>>56314339
listen here you little punk i’ve got my ears open and i’m ready to whoop some ass do not call me a turd or any other kind of crap

>>56314475
you shut the hell up punk i’m the boss around here and you’re nothing but a piece of filth on my shoe i’ve probably got more brains in my butt than you got in your whole dang head you idiot

>>56310135
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work


Yes. Buy low sell high best. If you can do this consistently you have an ability no human has.

Time in market beats timing market.

Being realistic, invest consistently but accelerate your investments when the market is down (covid, 08, dot com, etc)

Also buy now, inflation is in full effect and has year+ more to go before it’s tempered. You are relatively young so your time horizon is long.

>>56314651
listen here you lil bastard market timing is a fools game it aint that easy and i don't care what kinda crap your schwab bank says investing ain't nothing but a glorified casino

>>56314717
market timing is a goddamn fools game its all just bullshit made up by the banks to take ur hard earned money for their own bank bonuses don't fall for their bullshit it's all just gambling with extra steps

>>56310135
>This is the most bullshit financial advice ever given.
It is. Understanding the economic cycle is not very hard. Dividend stocks are cheap when bond yields are high, commodities will shit the bed in a recession etc. Not rocket science. There are almost always slurpable sectors.

this strategy only works in your fantasy mind where you never lose. but you will or already do lose cause otherwise you wouldnt be thinking outloud on a basket weaving forum

>>56310351
That’s how I know how new you are to investing.

>>56314956
>fantasy mind where you never lose
>>56314651
>this consistently you have an ability no human has.

I am convinced that you people are mentally deficient or suffer with ADD or something similar. There is no other explanation for your failure to grasp such simple concept.
You don't need to have perfect timing. Even if you happen to misjudge and not buy on the dip, you are still better off than the guy who bought on the first random day he had money.
All you "lose" are a few weeks/months of not being invested, which results is near-zero losses in index funds.
Here is my gain from doing nothing but waiting until the lowest cost in the last 3 months.

>>56314994
How long do you hold before you sell and buy the next dip?

>>56315001
I only sold once, and only sold as much as I could without having to pay taxes. (It was in an ISA so £17,500). I simply saw that the price was the highest it had been in 18 months and realized that a statistical unlikelihood was the best time to sell.
This isn't technical analysis. It's literally buy low sell high, and do it by ear.

>>56314961
hey listen up little boy i happen to be a top investor and i've made a killing off of crypto you call this a crash ha this is just a dip it'll be back to the all time high in a couple of months

>>56315042
lol look another crypto moron if you were such a great investor you wouldn't have gotten burned like an idiot on crypto crypto is a scam and the reason why the market is so volatile is because of crypto's lack of fundamentals and regulation

>>56315152
you wanna talk fundamentals look at gold a thousand years later and nobody can create a substitute or a rival meanwhile how many years has it been since people started using that shitty bitcoin and look at all the substitutes they've come up with

>>56315290
gold has been used for thousands of years and no other metals can compete with it bitcoin has been around for only a few years but already there are dozens of shitty copycats of it trying to make a quick buck from people who don't know any better just goes to show how shitty bitcoin and crypto is and how useless it is in the long run

>>56310796
>Try it. The reason you will fail is because you have no way of calculating when the "dip" is.

You are an idiot. Spy tanks 30% oh god how do I know if this is the bottom. Thank god I DCA when it was up 50%. Im too scared to buy at these low prices Ill dca some more even tho Im down 30%

The real strat is to DCA small amounts and dump fat loads into the market when no one else wants to.

>>56310135
I skimmed your posts and you're probably mid 20's or younger, and/or fairly low IQ, with very little actual trading experience.

You don't know shit and you're making yourself look retarded. Go ahead and time the market, pal! Tell us when you're a trillionaire.

>>56317507
based age discriminator

Even if you don't time the market you can get absolutely fucked in the ass. Life is all about luck. Everyone needs to feel they have agency in their lives or else coping would become impossible. Think of all the people set for retirement who got absolutely fucked in 2008.

>>56310135
It's good advice for lazy or low IQ "investors" who'd get BTFO if they tried their hand at daytrading.