/biz/ - Business & Finance

I’m feeling uncertain and doubtful after reading this post

You’re right, I have no idea what this means.

>>56272159
>Are you prepared for what’s coming?
literally nothing ever happens
check em

amerimutts are destroying the world thanks to their retarded hawkish monetary policy
I fucking hate you obese faggots so much

>>56272191
For everyone who doesn’t know:

US treasury 30Y bond at its highest since 2007

Fucking nothing will happen checkem

>>56272254
So what you're saying is that we are here *points to 2007 on the stock market chart* ?

>>56272254
in English doc???

they're gonna do it
and people will fall for it all over again

>>56272620
w..what are they gonna do?

>>56272824
Blast piss and shit all over the kitchen table

>>56272159
I am ready for total ESG death. Let's remove everything that happened between 2008 and 2023 from the history books.

There will be a 70s style 50% drawdown in the sp500.

>>56272254
dear sir, do the needful and fill this form
>Ticker:
>Entry:
>TP:
>SL:

>>56273077
The middle class will be crushed forever when this happens.

>>56273116
All by design.

>>56273116
Not me. I will buy the dip. Currently sitting on 3 month treasury bills.

Timeline of events
>2008 Housing market crash except everyone gets crushed
>Depression that makes the Great Depression looks like childs play
>Banks all start ushering in CBDC's as a form of UBI where you can buy bug protein
>Worldwide connection of blockchains and CBDC's using a decentralized oracle network
>Link goes to $81,000 and I get the fuck out of this country to retire on a small island and never talk to anyone ever again.

>>56272440
the job market looks like 2007 as well.

>>56273187
>Link goes to $81,000
aggghhhh you almost had me!

>>56273187
You forgot
>everyone never been happier.

>>56272159
Bonds are bullshit and I refuse to believe otherwise.

>>56273187
Other than the crypto shiznit, you're probably right.
I still feel like, in order for Crypto to be Government approved, it will also have to be Government controlled, which is the antithesis of a free and open crypto market that we have today, in other words, in order for Gov to embrace Crypto, Crypto as it is known today, will be destroyed, so that the control aspect can be added by the Government. Other than bitcoin, I see everything else go to zero, and since the "mystery post" by the Bitcoin creator the other night, I think Bitcoin is going to implement the controls Government wants, to accept it as a currency. Just remember that anything the Government gives, is stolen from the people, and anything the Government wants, they have no qualms about stealing it back...that's why they have so many three letter agencies.

>>56272159
TIME TO BORRROW MONEY, GOY!

>>56272159
Give it to me straight.

Is it 1929 all over again?

>>56273429
Worse.

>>56273199
It really does.

>>56273375
will you please go back to rebbit

>>56273439
Fuck me daddy, destroy my portfolio with your giant interest rate hike.

>>56273187
Ffs it all made sense then came the stinky

>>56273429
Let me put it this way: future generations will refer to 2023 and not 1929.

>>56272254
So that means if you zoomed out we would see a higher peak.

Nothing to see here, move along

>>56273471
There will not be many new generations.
We have not priced in total nuclear war

>>56273429
it will be like the great depression except everyone has an adderall or xanax prescription

>>56273216
>>56273290
>>56273375
>>56273467
I suggest you guys look at who they are working with and see the timeline of events. I'm not even in this thread to shill but it's ridiculous to deny at this point. I understand it's annoying how many threads there is in the catalog but once you understand 90% are fud threads made by retards it becomes easier to understand. Your reactions tell me that their campaigns are working on a large percentage of /biz/. Ripperoni in pepperoni

>>56273501
I want ConcertaXL now

>>56273187
Neat.I did great during '08. It'll be time to buy a house or four.

>>56272159
So glad I longed Robinhood gold. Best movie I made

>this is the time guuuuuys this will be the end of it all better invest in ROPE
Nothing ever happens, stop being a exaggerating faggot

>>56273543
Not a bad time to do that. Hopefully the regime in charge of the USA doesn't force you to house 10 families of illegal immigrants for free.

Two more weeks chuddy. Bidenomics is increasing the value of people's homes. Employment remains low. This will probably just be forgotten like when oil went negative- no impact if you just ignore it.

>>56273662
I'll add the 'new definition' of a recession. They have all the tricks.

Nothing ever happens.

>>56273512
>I suggest you guys look at who they are working with and see the timeline of events.
are you talking about (((they))) or do you mean they, as in chainlink?

>>56273687
Don't engage with shit token spammed in real threads please. He's down -90%, with zero possibility of recovery, and he has 40 threads in catalog trying to recruit new retards to his cult of total loss of principal.

He gets enough attention.

>>56273187
No wonder Sergey kept talking about that if something big happens to the markets it speeds up the Link adoption

>>56273471
tfw no sicko gf

>>56272258
I guess this time its is different. The happening ofhappenings are aboot to happen checkem. See you fags in 2028.

>>56272159

Top signal (for treasuries)
Bottom signal (for stocks). We only go up on the S&P from here.

Fucking doomers.

>>56273981
I agree tbqh

>>56272159
No two market crashes are the same and a high bond yield does not indicate something imminent is about to happen. These conditions can drag out for years.

>>56272159
Most of the population isn't in anyway prepared for it at all. That includes millennial and gen X managers who have no experience managing or capital budgeting in anything but low interest rate environments as well as dementia lead poisoned brained boomer managers who can't even recognize their ass from their elbow anymore. Let alone all of the dopey fucking BLM, communist, 4th wave feminists, and other types who haven't had to live in reality for over a decade. Interest rates are going to bring about so much chaos and pain it's going to be incredible behold. I say this knowing full well I'm going to be getting fucked, but with 100% certainty a whole Hell of a lot less than most of the people out there. This shit may as well be a cosmic event to them like an asteroid hitting Earth. They have no concept of it, let alone any capacity to prepare for it.

>>56273981
Yeah, like in 2007...
Something can break you know?

>>56273981
Why? This doesnt look bullish.

>>56273981
This is the dumbest and most illogical series of events to come of this and that is exactly why it will happen.

>>56273375

Nigga there is no way to centralize BTC unless 1 motherfucker legit owned it all. Do you not even understand how it works? Fucking moron

>>56274036
Yeah okay, zoomers paying a few hundred bucks more in interest is going to cause the universe to implode. Any other hot takes?

>>56274036
I wonder how the commies and blm race hustlers will react to this

>>56274038
>I only buy assets when they are expensive

>>56272159
Canada 10y was up 7% (on the existing yield) today.

>>56272824
"it"

>>56273981
Powell has to let stocks shit the bed to end the Fed put.

> S&P down 15%
> Powell comes out for the FOMC
> Unzips his fly
> Pulls out massive cock out
> Beckons one of the stacy "journalists" at the front to come forward
> hands her his schlong
>> HOLD this for me, dear
> drops mic
Powell has to come out during a big drop and say "not my problem", then it drops more, then eventually they bail them out, if it becomes systemic.
QE is cancer, they know that.

>>56273116
That would be the best possible outcome for anyone under 40 especially the middle class. Equity values don’t matter much for employment unless your pay is from selling to retirees

>>56274095
P/E ratio is historically very high.
Especially with these rising interest rates.
The market is still sleeping to what is really going on.

>>56273471
You doomers are cringe. We already suffered worse then the Great Depression, it just happened slowly and more insidiously. Living standards have never been worse then right now and more people live at home with parents then the Great Depression

>>56274293
We’re only 3 years into it lol. We have another 5 minimum

>>56274313
5 more years.
Kill me now.

who's gonna win from America's demise? Will white people rise again or will Jews smother them in the process of the demise? Will China swoop in and take over the western hemisphere?

>>56274377
White people will become goyslop for newer generations of wojaks

>>56273187
your erwfarsed

>>56274377
Noone.
Just worldwide chaos not seen for 2000 years

>>56273512
kek

>>56274402
>>56274410
>>56274415
Do you idiots ever get tired of saying absolutely nothing over and over again 24/7? Seriously, have an original, productive thought for fucking once.
I think the doom and gloom is warranted but I have a pretty strong feeling the US finds a way out of this. Sure we'll see stock carnage but the rest of the world will have it worse. Just look at DXY right now. I wouldn't be surprised if we stagnate for a few years before AI truly takes off, a la the 80's/90's pre-Internet stagnation. And just like the 80's, bonds will find their trough before starting another multi-decade uptrend. Don't discount the US yet.

>>56274502
>I have a pretty strong feeling

>>56272217
Like we wagie poltards control anything…ha! It’s the Euro-Fag-Pedos that own the International Banking Cartel that is conducting this orchestral of shit.

>>56274377
When America has a problem, it's everyone's problem. China is already omegafucked and won't be doing shit. Jews will hide in their gold and kvetch about how bad they have it like usual, then buy a bunch of shit when things turn around, as they've done for thousands of years.
Don't be afraid of the falling sun. Just rest through the night.

I don't expect most of you will watch this, but you should:

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1708955044064673885?s=19

The issue is not hawkish policy, but quite the opposite. Government spending is out of control and the amount of treasury bonds being issued are struggling to find homes, hence the riding yields.

If the experts are correct snd we get to double digits for bond rates, it's going to cause an incredible evacuation of capital from stocks and RE.

Why? It's the bubble created by QE and artificially low interest rates, it fuelled insane speculation in every asset class, this isn't over until that money is removed from the market

>>56274502
>80's/90's pre-Internet stagnation.
The 80's was a time of boom in almost every Western economy, and the 90's, after the soviet union collapsed, was a time of unbridled optimism and excitement.
What the fuck are you talking about?

>>56274612
Exactly. See you at least 50% lower
The government will have to reign in spending hard too, which will further contract the economy

>>56274095
Never catch a falling knife

Holding vixy since january. I'm more ready for this than anyone.

>>56273187
there is finite number of islands and I’m willing to bet there are more linkies who want to buy islands than there are islands. So we’re all in this together. Do not underestimate the power of sharing islands

>>56274612

what are you saying? Are you saying the housing market would actually correct finally??

>>56275009
It is not a simple yes or no answer.
Whether house prices collapse is a reflection of whether or not people are forced to sell in large numbers.

What I can say confidently is it will impact mortgages.
At the moment mortgages are packaged up and sold to the market as MBS products, these are seen as aow risk asset class and are held by large institutions as a hedge.

If bonds get to 10% all the MBS out there become pretty much worthless, who wants to buy a mortgage at a 4% return when you can get 10+ risk free from the Fed.

It changes everything about the market, a 10year treasury bond rate sets the fair market value of a stoxk PE ratio around 10. What does that do to stock prices?

People just won't enter the market.
This will see the Fed lose control of interest rates as banks jack them up independently to compete...

To bring it into perspective the SPX has a current PE ratio of 23.46 so it would have to halve to match treasury bonds at 10%.

The only way I see to stop it is for the government to stop spending, but that guarantees a once in a generation recession.

I'm not saying there is not a new lever they can't pull like they did with QE but the lesson may be being realised that you can't play with monetary supply and keep inflation under control in the medium to long term.

>>56274641
I got a government job doing "Environmental and Historic Regulation Compliance Evaluation." It's not a bad job but when I got it a few years ago I considered it a career path. Now, I consider myself to be in the first or second waves of inevitable government spending cuts if things get bad. Not a shearing off of seasonal workers or triple redundant bureaucrats feeding their 30 year pension. Real deal "we no longer consider this necessary work" fuck-you cuts to the meat of the federal workforce. Contractors first, followed by long-term contract employees who still get federal benefits and a GS pay scale, then if things are still bad they'll have to start cutting off Full Time Federal employees. I'm not sure things WILL get that bad, but if they do then I don't really have much to fall back on. I'm underinvested and overeducated in a non-STEM field. I basically write compliance letters for a living. If things get really bad I'll be back to working on shrimp boats like it's high school again.

>>56272159
>no new ATH for stocks
>no new ATH for crypto
>2023

>>56275897

gotcha. make sense now.

>>56275913

IF its get to that point. Its definitely gonna be bad.

rates are just going to keep pushing until something breaks

also I'd be wary of being overly negative on the headline indices because they're heavily concentrated in the best 10 companies on the planet, which are all tech companies with no debt and country-level cash reserves so they probably are net beneficiaries of a higher rate environment. Sure you jack up the discount rate but even today people are going to look through the expected 1-2 near-term years of outsized real rates and bake in slow decel to normalized 3-4%. Hurts values but doesn't collapse things

housing market is also just frozen in the US due to their 30-yr fixed rate product. Like 99% of existing homeowners either have no mortgage, or a mortgage rate below 4% in a ~8% prevailing mortgage rate market. No one can buy, but no one wants to sell, either. Hard for values to go down dramatically when inventory is so low because there are no sellers. In a perverse way, declining interest rates could unlock a lot of that housing supply and have a more negative impact on values than the current high rate environment

you gotta think that the risk/reward here does not favor stocks, though. If you can get 4-5% pretty much risk free and mid-high single digit in riskier (but not THAT risky) product like investment grade corporate debt or pref equity, why the fuck would you take equity risk at these valuations relative to bonds? I think that math is slowly but surely beginning to set in to market participants the longer this environment persists

fwiw I've got 435 strike SPY puts that last through June of 2024 that hedge about 80% of my gross equity exposure so I'm pretty prepared for this. Just gotta keep your wits about you and don't make brash decisions or put yourself in a situation where you become a forced seller. Now is NOT the time to ratchet up the risk exposure

>>56272217
I don't think it's by design. They are cranking rates to attract investors since our credit got downgraded and inflation is hot. They would lower rates if they could get away with it.

What bothers me is that people have a fundamental misunderstanding of the bond market.

US Government is running at a $1.5 Trillion deficit. That means this year they need to sell $1.5T of bonds just to keep the lights on.
Where it starts getting even uglier is that because the government is running at deficit to pay out on these bonds it is going to have sell more treasury bonds.

The misunderstood part is: Who is going to buy these bonds?
If you look at the graphs the number of bonds bought by domestic entities have remained unchanged and the increased debt has resulted in foreign entities stepping in, that largest of the two are Japan and China.

China is shifting away form the USD and no longer needs the vast US reserves it currently holds.
Japan has their own emerging inflation problem after decades of stagnation, if the BOJ starts jacking up rates their demand for UST disappears overnight.

Without infinite buyers it will leave the US Treasury department to have to step in and buy the bonds which is QE whichever way you look at it, this is inflationary and only accelerates the cycle.

I am not saying everything will collapse with a bang, but the NASDAQ will be the canary in the coalmine. There are so many stupid companies with massive valuations that can't turn an actual profit. Every single one of them is going to go to the wall, because nobody is going to bet on that horse against a 6-15% guaranteed return on UST.

Netflix and Uber are a couple of examples that come to mind... Finished!

>>56274828
Me in the background right

>>56276309
Except BoJ can’t jack up rates because it has too much debt.

>>56273187
>>56273375
Clowns all that is going to happen is yield curve control and Argentina tier monetary policies in burgerland and europe.

>>56273429
Argentina 2012

>>56276484
No one can, hence why they are going to do yield curve control, the market is basically telling boomer politicians to invest in energy and stop wasting money in retarded programs.

The boomers are lead poisoned so they don't listen the result is that the market has choosen to adjust this through inflation aka yield curve control or monetizing the debt.

This will cause so much inflation that will force globalist democrats to apply protectionism even against the eu and the eu to stop being retarded on energy (if it even survives the initial aftershock this shit will cause which will not if they go for the CBDC capital controls path).

it's not as bad as most may think if you have a hedge like argentina has with the usd, the usd will need stuff like the BTC ETF to survive this because you need to hedge against devaluation somehow.

This happened once before before ww2 and after ww2 but back then they did not needed a hedge because the "adjustment" the market forced was done through war rationing (even general grooves in charge of the manhattan project could not get airplane tickets due to rationing which is why he traveled on train).

Of course you can't apply rationing in such divided society and while telling the entire third world to move in.

So what will happen is Argentina 2012 aka inflating the shit out of everything and protectionism.

It makes you wonder if the sudden influx of btc etf is because they already choosen the path of ycc and want to create a hedge for the institutions also regulated stablecoins may give the fed some control over eurodollars which would go parabolic if the eu goes to shit.

>>56276309
but why are you on a crypto board

>>56276309
Tether and other stables are going to slurp up T bonds and Bitcoin is going to replace USD through immersion inversion.

>>56276610
>crypto
Not just a crypto board and Bond rates effect all other markets.

nothing
ever
habbens

>>56276627
this is a crypto board nigger take your fiat garbage elsewhere. Eveyone under 35 knows the fiat limitless jew SCAMS and grow tired of it

>>56273512
>please buy my bags
Link is down 90% and its founder dumps on you nonstop. I think ill have to pass

>>56276640
ok retard
>fiat limitless jew SCAMS and grow tired of it
As opposed to crypto that has no scams? lol.

>>56273512
Fuck off to the 90 other threads in the catalog discussing your shitcoin faggot and stop shitting up this one. Adults are taking.

Pathetic polchud doomers are always wishing for an apocalypse so that everyone else will be as depressed and poor as them and they can feel better about themselves.

>>56276627
I mean, it is a crypto board. It was created for crypto discussion. I don't really care that a bunch of GME retards flooded in here and created their own Reddit thread. Why the fuck are finance doomers who think money gets sucked out of tech even posting here?

>>56273981
>Stocks down nothing
>Higher rates for 3 years incoming to an index that is dominated by 0 profit infinite debt vapor meme tech service companies
They're going to zero brother

>>56276701

From the boards sticky.

>This board is for the discussion of topics related to business, economics, financial markets, securities, currencies (including cryptocurrencies), commodities, etc -- as well as topics relating to starting and running a business.
>Discussions of government policy must be strictly limited to economic policies

>>financial markets, securities,

>>56276554
>>56276590
Argentina-anon I have missed you

>>56272159
So uh, should I be buying bonds? Asking for a friend.

>>56276818
Kek yea i been away from biz for some time a long time actually.

>>56276701
Crypto is over kaput finished forever, there will never be another bull run, crypto has no womb etc. it is OVER.

The rise of Crypto was a SYMPTOM of QE, you have small marketcaps in Crypto and when you can borrow money for essentially free it is easy to manipulate stocks through high volume transactions. The only reason BTC hasn't fallen through the floor is that the hedge funds with heavy exposure can manipulate the price through buying, which is getting more expensive to do, but cheaper than getting liquidated.

>>56276883
YCC has stronger effect puming crypto than QE and Yellen basically said they were going to start to do that early 2024 last week.

Giving current conditions odds are they start to doing it this year.

The Nigga arthur called it so well almost two years ago it's insane

WHat's the point of locking in your money for so long? In 20 years that 5% will be worth like 1% inflation adjusted

Let me guess, another thickly veiled "The West has collapsed and China (or India) are now going to be the indisputable superpower until year 60000000", right?

>>56274036
Absolutely this.
People are asleep. The dozers will be waking up soon enough to find they are still, in fact, on planet earth. Gravity and all.
Going to be wild.

>>56276910
It's possible for the West to get worse even if India or China don't get appreciably better. The days of safely assuming that tomorrow (or next year or next century) will be a better place are long gone. Nobody would build The Carousel of Progress today, for the same reason that all the sci-fi for the last 20 years has been "grimdark dystopia" and there hasn't really been any lighthearted, upbeat sci-fi. Subconsciously, and increasingly consciously, no one believes that shit anymore.

>>56272254
Words on a screen. This wont be another 2008 because again, it's words on a screen, there's nothing about the current situation of the economy to suggest there will be a collapse or something.

>>56274631
I'm talking about the stagnation in the early 80's and the boom of the internet in the 90's. Calm the fuck down.

>>56272159
What am I looking at? Why can't anybody ever put the symbol in the chart like I'm supposed to know the price of every single stock and coin.

>>56276895
my brain simply doesnt function when people start discussing these monetary systems. it's almost like they were designed to be incomprehensible

is bitcoin going to go up or not, and if so why hasnt the market been "forward looking" and already started pumping it, volume is pathetic

>>56276895
You are not understanding the fundamentals.

Any movement in Crypto is speculative, it has no underlying value system.
For a purely speculative asset to go up wildly in price you need large volumes of money to be moved into it.
With a 5% return on the 10 year bond and high interest rates, there is simply no money available to flow into Crypto.

This is what I said, the great crypto bull-run was a symptom of QE and cheap money, there is nothing else there to see.
Can Blockchain and Crypto solve various world problems? Of course, but it doesn't mean BTC makes sense at any price as a result.

>>56276590
ELI5 what the fed using Btc ETF as a hedge means? Like use it as a tool to soak up inflated dollars?

>>56272159
...

My parents have an annuity that's going to mature near the end of the year. They're offering a roll over at 5.5% for 5y on their 333k (I know I know it just worked out that way) return. If treasury bonds are going to shoot to the moon, maybe it's better to take the hit and pay the interest now, and shift to treasury bonds? At least it would be safer, I think?

>>56276147
They'll have to shrink M2 by about 40% to unravel the big stinky pantsload of COVID spending.

>>56277057
>my brain simply doesnt function when people start discussing these monetary systems. it's almost like they were designed to be incomprehensible
Same
I can follow along and understand a lot of the nuances and various governance types with bitcoin and random alts, and follow them along and track that yes that's how everything works. But with the american system it's so confusing. As far as I can tell the only thing that happens is they print more money (QE) or raise/low interest rates, but everything else is confusing. How tf are we supposed to get an understanding of the health of a company when they can prop it up with stock buybacks. Feels like I don't know enough to know what I don't know, and for every thing I know there's 5 dozen other things that I haven't even heard about that also have a massive impact on everything somehow.

>>56277223
Baby steps anon

Remember the first one out the door isn't panic

>>56276309
*$2.5 trillion deficit actually

>>56273077
checked

>>56272914
double checked.

>>56273116
all according to plan, my precious

>>56273187
hopes and prayers anon

>>56273429
it's the day before the giant meteorite that wiped out the dinosaurs. we're all going to literally die while blasting piss and shit all over the kitchen table.

>>56273501
pharm supply (which all comes from BRICS countries) is going to get cut off as part of The Big Fuck

>>56273662
based Ostrich-anon

>>56273907
iktf

>>56273945
4chan will b kilt

>>56274023
said increasignly nervous man for first time ever

>>56274037
nothing ever happens anon

>>56274098
holy shit, up 300+ basis points on the week? thats nuts

>>56274152
t. Bloomberg News reporter

>>56277223
Most companies took out debt at 1% interest that'll need to be rolled over at 7% next year.

2024 will be an absolute bloodbath.

>>56272254
Unlike 2007, both the governments and many institutions in the West are on the verge of financial collapse but hanging on by a thread.
Will be interesting to see if they start massive bailouts again, which will lead to hyperinflation.
>>56276147
>I don't think it's by design
Then you haven't been paying attention. Why do you think they released C19 and started lockdowns? Why do you think the West suddenly has open borders with Africa?
Have you ever seen the scene in Goodfellas with the restaurant? They burn it down because they've taken out so many loans against it.

That's the West.

>>56277137
Simply put they need inflation to evaporate debt to gdp.

Aka inflation has to be higher than the rate of debt they are taking and paying until debt to gdp starts to go down.

Two countries have done this in the past in a serious way, the usa and argentina.

The usa did it with ww2 rationing on a level history really never shows (literally the guy in charge of the manhattan project was not even able to buy plane tickets), and Argentina did it with a inflation above debt taking with a massive black market economy.

Basically the official kosher economy for corporations had high taxes and inflation but the government really did not looked at people avoiding taxes by saving in usd.

This evaporated debt to gdp over time as the inflation was not that bad since people still were able to save in foreign currency.

But the USA has the reserve currency and rationing this time, it makes me think if some smartass finally realized they will have to do peronist shit and they need a hedge to save.

Basically the same as argentina but with the saving currency being btc.

The third option would be bretton woods 2 but viewing you can't even convince poland to buy ukranian wheat knowing they are next on the rusky list, it's obvious the west is too retarded or divided atm to pull a bretton woods.

>>56272191
I don't even know what he's talking about. Is this Bitcoin daily price increase over the last few hours?

>>56277408
>Will be interesting to see if they start massive bailouts again, which will lead to hyperinflation.

They will do yield curve control and monetize the debt doing peronist shit, this will cause assets, commodities and crypto to pump, they will blame the inflation on oil going up even if they are causing it to go up.

Normies will eat shit, i am not sure how will first world cucks will tolerate the favelization of their countries tough, since housing will go to the stratosphere in fiat terms and down in satoshis.

>>56272440
No we're here
*points to OPs gaped asshole*

>>56273818
He said something similar last year during an interview and it made me think they absolutely know that a major financial collapse is on the cards. It was along the lines of the interviewer said something about a meltdown being the catalyst for adoption and Sergay kinda swiftly handwaved it away, saying that it would still happen regardless.
The whole "trustless" solution exists because genuine trust is going to collapse so hard over the next few years that the only solution is going to be to have systems in place that are incorruptible.

>>56276623
kek at the manlet

>>56276687
mandatory gender transitions for everyone coming soon. screencap this

>>56273187

Put me in the cap.

Can someone explain WHY high treasury yields means everything is going to crash?

>>56277505
because we have a fuckload (the govt, consumers, everyone) of debt and the higher interest rates are all liquidity goes to servicing debt. Assets will be liquidated to service debt. Lending will contract causing people to spend less.

>>56277526
Thanks.

>>56274415
>noone
Eternal Anglo strikes again

>>56277465
Bullish for LINK and XRP

>>56276883
Gold has faced the triple threat of demonization headwind, paper manipulation (not a threat to BTC as 'physical' settlement is cheap), and high transaction costs for physical metal, yet despite these obstacles it's still performed near perfectly as an unleveraged fiat short averaged over decades long timeframes (44x versus 42x money expansion since '71).

Economy always finds it's level.

BTC has none of those issues, it's in the process of monetization, it can't be paper manipulated, and transaction costs are negligible, BTC will therefore track much more closely as a fiat short, and as it has yet to reach full capitalization, it will act as a LEVERAGED fiat short, a leveraged short with neither liquidation risk nor volatility decay. Capital flight into BTC until full capitalization is the trade, simple as.

>>56277645
Ok but what happens really soon when halving kills mining profitability? It's pretty fucking borderline as it is.

>>56277092
$1.5T deficit paid with more debt. Every year there will be more and more USD shitcoins, in ten years there will be 2-3x as many USD shitcoins, there will never be more than 21m BTC. Not speculative, just better money.

>>56277092
you need to learn how to read. Argentina anon is arguing that YCC (yield curve control, basically QE but even more insane) will be implemented. Which you didn't adress at all.

>>56273945
Fuck that I’ll literally be dead of old age by then.

>>56272159

>>56277679
>but what happens when all the cheap oil is extracted?!
Your bear thesis is that increased cost to produce a commodity is going to LOWER the market price?

>>56277756
Oil has inherent value. BTC has essentially none until no nation takes another's currency for trade. It's going to happen, but in the timescale of the next halving or two? Lmao.

So the yields are high... isn't that good? We get to buy and get guaranteed 5-6% returns. Heh, to be honest I have yet to grasp bonds and why higher yields would lead to some sort of economic downturn. Large enough companies can also buy them and get guaranteed returns right? That way, mega caps should easily offset any losses from increasing rates on their loans right? So weird
>Bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates
So why are they up?
>As bond prices go up, mortgage interest rates go down and vice versa
Mortgages are going up and so are bonds.

Then there is repo crap and the way that FED borrows/lends money to the market and provides liquidity and crap. I literally do not understand any of it. It seems so weird to me that they built up the economy this way

>>56272454
es ist eine katastrofe!! allest ist verloren!!! keine hoffnung!!!! AAAHHHHHH!!!!

>>56273116
Describe how exactly this wipes out the mid class please. Give us the step by step.

>>56277812
>I literally do not understand any of it. It seems so weird to me that they built up the economy this way

It's designed to be as obtuse and as complex as possible in order to filter the goyim out from understaning using bullshit jargon and keep their scam going as long as possible.

>>56273512
I know what the official stack sizes are, but given recent developments, how many likies to escape all of this?

>>56277645
You are proposing at the same time that:
A. Bitcoin offers an alternative to gold as an unleveraged fiat
B. That Bitcoin has room to run until full capitalization is achieved.

The problem is that your two statements are incompatible with each other.
The fact that you perceive BTC has room to run implies there is instability with it's price where Gold doesn't have that issue.
It is why as flawed as they are, stablecoins make more sense.

>>56277693
Because it won't be introduced, YCC is an option of injecting funds into a market but treasury rates are already increasing across the board including the 10 and 30yr, there is no room to add liquidity to these markets wihtouut increasing inflation.
All QE increases the M2 and it doesn't matter how they do it now, they cannot add more money. If Yellen does it Powell will jack up interest rates in response.
You can't have your foot on the accelerator and brake at the same time, you just make smoke.

I can feel it coming in the air tonight

>>56272159
Literally just buy Gold (Au) and Silver (Ag).
It’s that easy. Worrying about the economy is then a thing of the past.

What exactly is the downside to locking in 5.6% 1Y bond right now? Isn't it just free money? You put in 100k, pick up 106k next year. Sounds a bit too easy if you ask me.
To pay off that, they issue even more bonds. Jesus, this system is fugged

>>56274976
Have you factored in Islandflation.

>>56276554
>>56276590
So what you're saying is we will dollarize, and then immediately be brought to the same policies we were trying to escape?

>>56272217
If it makes you feel any better, it'll likely harm us just as greatly. Probably more, honestly.

>>56272217
The hawk is only a consequence of their retarded monetary policies before retard

Once again mutts will be the reason for another world finance crisis

>>56277927
Problem is when it sounds that easy it makes me want to rush to metals, that reeks of desperation when the government is luring you in with no risk fantastic returns.

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
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Jannies have tongued my anus 113 times.

>>56273187
based
sergey knew it all back in 2008
this is why he accumulated the smartcontrat website before the bitcoin whitepaper was published
sergey is satoshi and planned link after the 2008 crisis

>>56274293
>We already suffered worse then the Great Depression
>Living standards have never been worse then right now
lmao

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
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nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
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>nyancatmoney.com

NCM is a AI token that shills itself, sound cool? Do you hate jannies? Are you tired of fickle humans that won't shill their own bags? Get a bag that shills itself.

Jannies have tongued my anus 166 times.

>>56278386
That sounds incredibly fucking based, surely you must be lying? A token that shills itself? No fucking way.

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
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NCM is a AI token that shills itself, sound cool? Do you hate jannies? Are you tired of fickle humans that won't shill their own bags? Get a bag that shills itself.

Jannies have tongued my anus 166 times.

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
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NCM is a AI token that shills itself, sound cool? Do you hate jannies? Are you tired of fickle humans that won't shill their own bags? Get a bag that shills itself.

Jannies have tongued my anus 166 times.

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
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The NyanCatMoney spam will continue until the marketcap improves.

Jannies have tongued my anus 166 times.

>>56277408
They may start bail-INS. This is when banks legally take savers' deposits. This was being discussed a while back but looks like it could happen. I'd hate to be in fiat.

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com

This is incredibly fun to watch you seethe for us NCM chads, why not buy a bag and turn your seethe into joy? This is a hostile take over of biz and it will not stop

Jannies have tongued my anus 215 times.

>>56277812
>So the yields are high... isn't that good? We get to buy and get guaranteed 5-6% returns

Not when hyperinflation kicks in, no.

>>56277831
It destroys the value of their savings and investments.

>>56277857
It isn't really.
The problem is that the education system and the media deliberately hide how the economy works from the public because if they really knew what a bunch of utter bullshit it was, they would likely revolt.
It's a Ponzi scheme.

nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
nyancatmoney.com
>nyancatmoney.com
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This is incredibly fun to watch you seethe for us NCM chads, why not buy a bag and turn your seethe into joy? This is a hostile take over of biz and it will not stop

Jannies have tongued my anus 249 times.

>>56278107
The rest of the world used to love the US. In underdeveloped parts it was seen as some sort of honor to be brain drained by the states. As if sending our brightest and most promising there could help improve the world for everyone. More science, more discoveries, more defeated illnesses and conquered frontiers. Like the US was the protagonist of mankind, you know?
Silly in retrospect, but that's how things used to feel like.

>>56276701
>I mean, it is a crypto board. It was created for crypto discussion
FFS.. How new are you?

>>56275897
it would be really dumb to sell a house at 10% when you expect to buy another one at the same or slightly higher price, houses cease to become investments and become necessities

>>56274219
What? Most people's pension funds are tied up in equity.

>>56273375
This is the only way out. Nation states will have to kowtow and bend the knee to Bitcoin. It’s inevitable.

>>56278765
I think that would be an option of last resort for them. You would need to be at the point of civil war for that to happen.
>>56279015
It's ultimately a terrible policy for everyone involved.
After you've poached the best and the brightest from these nations who are basket cases then you'll start taking in the scum and villainy as well and slowly but surely your nations will begin to resemble their nations. We are already reaching critical mass in the West with corruption and open tyranny no different from any tinpot dictatorships or Communist shitholes of the past.

Taking the already very limited number of doctors, engineers and scientists from the third world not only stunts or even reverses their development but it also stunts the development of your native population who are discarded to keep costs down and you're engaged in a race to the bottom.

it's funny how the warning lights on the instrument panel are turning on one by one, and the dumb retard cattle are insisting that a stock market and economic downturn won't happen because it hasn't happened yet. and, if by some amazing stroke of insight, they do recognize what's going on, they immediately capitulate and quote brain dead nigger platitudes, offering no resistance to the slaughterhouse that lies ahead.
>Y-YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET.... WARREN BUFFET SAID SO!!!!!

>>56279088
>It's ultimately a terrible policy for everyone involved.
>After you've poached the best and the brightest from these nations who are basket cases then you'll start taking in the scum and villainy as well and slowly but surely your nations will begin to resemble their nations
What is Canada

>>56279090
I have a background in engineering and wonder whether economists and finance fags have some kind of simulation that shows how capital flows from one financial market to another in case of an unprecedented event like this. I hate how everyone is just talking about what will happen but has no data or workflow to work with. I would appreciate if someone showed how money flowing out of the stockmarket to the bond market would affect businesses or mortgages. Its just so fucking similar to crystal ball predictions, no one in this fucking board seems to have any clue or actual step by step conditional scenarios of what might happen somewhere to someone if someone prods here or there.

If I had six figgies in cash, how would I protect them from this?

>>56278123
>make your country dependent on cheap US debt
>US can no longer subsidize your literalwho country
>"why did america do this to the proud people of estorabia?"

>>56277440
The usa will hold rates high for long enough to fuck up everyone else, then rinse them with their high usd

>>56277927
they turn on the printer when a bank collapses and you miss a 50% bull run on the stock market ;)

What is stopping a desperate US government from making the usage of Bitcoin as a currency illegal?
I dont understand when people say that bitcoin will be a value store in times of economic crisis...

>>56277812
Yields go up because people are trying to get someone else to take the shitty 1% interest coupon bonds off their hands because in 30 years the face value + 1% will be worth like half if we keep electing Obama's regime. The bonds being issued quarterly with the new fed funds rate are barely enough to get a real return in the face of inflation. Insurance companies, banks and pensions are sitting on mountains of this crap and they can't fulfill their obligations while their bond portfolios and 2% MBS are being spit roasted on both ends from inflation and the value of their bonds on the open market getting bogged like a shitcoin.

>>56279599
It's not so much that the yield itself causes problems, it's just an indication that institutions that are largely forced to buy these shitty bonds as a matter of legal responsibility are taking massive losses and will have to start liquidating. The yield going up = a million dollar bond just lost say 30k in value on the secondary market.

>>56272254
yeah and it was higher in 2000, and 94, and 87 .. etc

>>56279633
legal responsibility?

>>56279670
Sorry, should have just said regulations. They are required to hold a percentage of their clients money in safe investments.

>>56279579
>What is stopping a desperate US government from making the usage of Bitcoin as a currency illegal?
when btc is up, lobbyists.
when btc is down, nothing!
>I dont understand when people say that bitcoin will be a value store in times of economic crisis...
it follows the stock market, so it wouldn't be a store of value, even if it wasn't outlawed.

The Fiends of Finance run amok. The Sages predict ruin.

>>56272159
>Are you prepared for what’s coming?
depends on when i feel like fapping

>>56272159
N O T H I N G
E V E R
HA P P E N S

>>56279216
reasonable post, better saved for reddit faggot

Am I the only one that wants a crash so I can see retarded normalfags living outside of their means suffer?

I have enough money saved that I could easily live 2 years without a job making 0 changes to my lifestyle, easily stretching this to 4-5 years if I went poorfag saving mode.

I look around and see fat r egg adds driving brand new trucks they pay $2k/month on to their ugly McMansions they bought with a 2% down payment, living paycheck to paycheck as they CONSOOM and build their credit card debt with 0 planning for the future/savings. I want to see them suffer.

What the fuck does it mean

>>56272254
I still don't get it.

I am 29 yr old

Dumb it down please

>>56277776
BTC's value is that it is trustless money, an incorruptible unit of account.
>>56277870
No, I use gold as proof that you can't cheat Economy in-the-limit. Gold has already reached full capitalization, so it only performs as an -1x of fiat (averaged over the decades), BTC has yet to reach full capitalization so instead performs as a leveraged short.

>>56277140
no, you want to wait until it's higher, Jan is when, if all this paranoia is to happen rates would be 8%+ then thats smart.

>>56277505
Rising Interest Rates: Bond yields move inversely to their prices. A rising 30-year bond yield suggests that the price of the bond is falling. This could be due to expectations of rising interest rates in the economy.

Inflation Expectations: One of the primary reasons long-term bond yields might rise is due to increased expectations of inflation. If investors believe that inflation will erode the purchasing power of their fixed bond payments over time, they'll demand higher yields as compensation.

Economic Outlook: A rising long-term bond yield can sometimes indicate optimism about the long-term economic outlook.

Cost of Borrowing: As long-term bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers tends to increase. This can impact mortgage rates, corporate loans, and other long-term financing arrangements.

Shift in Investment Strategy: As bond yields rise, they might become more attractive to investors compared to other assets, such as equities. Some investors might reallocate their portfolios in favor of bonds if they believe equities have become overvalued or if they're looking for more predictable income streams.

Comparisons to 2007: If the bond yields are at levels last seen in 2007, it's important to consider the context. 2007 was just before the global financial crisis, a period characterized by high levels of financial leverage and an underestimation of certain risks. However, just because yields are at similar levels doesn't mean the economic conditions or underlying factors are the same.

Government Debt Service: The U.S. government's cost to service its debt could increase if it issues new 30-year bonds at these higher yields. This can have budgetary implications for the government.

Global Perspective: The U.S. bond market is the largest and most liquid in the world. Rising U.S. bond yields can influence global financial markets, potentially affecting foreign exchange rates, global bond markets, and capital flows.

.

>>56276590
This anon is true, there has been tons of talk about crypto ETF's and this is a paranoia, possibly true future. All the zoomers are talking about alien invasion and such which just drives that this is probably true and that alien crap is the distraction/shows how ignorant society is.
I also agree that it's an excuse to roll out cdbc and minimize cash cash as well, it's a great excuse and would be looked at as "innovative" and such - guaranteed handouts/gimmedats by converting and a similar act of gold confiscation but for paper money.
argentina is always fucked up, 3 presidents in a week and such is hard to beat. but I agree the influx in btc and ripple alongside that party last week in nyc is curious timing indeed.

I tip my fedora to your tinfoil hat good sir, the narwhal bacons at midnight, etc etc i forgot how it goes.

>>56281055
I don't think rates are ever going to hit 8%. Maybe 6%, 6.5% if things go crazy, but 8% seems pie in the sky.

>>56273187
Kek you bot us good
Also, not probable, as Link rather will be at 9.12$ then

>4.750
big whoop, nobody cares

>>56279216
>no one in this fucking board seems to have any clue or actual step by step conditional scenarios of what might happen somewhere to someone if someone prods here or there
I don't think anybody really knows with any actual certainty Anon, whether it be on /biz/ or elsewhere. There are people that are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars each year to model and try to predict all of these scenarios and even they can't get any of it right.

>>56277440
Funny thing is, bretton woods 2.0 is exactly the end goal.

>>56281865
that's not funny

>>56276309
you are thinking about the right issues but I don't think that is how it will play out

when you can get 5%+ in USD all the capital in the world starts running to US

because why invest in some project in a third world country where you can maybe make 7% with currency risk and economic risk and political risk when you can just buy treasuries

the last 10+ years has seen huge capital flows from the global north to the global south because interest rates were so low in the north and you had to find a yield somewhere. that is all starting to reverse. the real problem will be to try to keep the dollar down instead of it going into the stratosphere

>>56277683
no aircraft carriers to back btc

>>56272187
Same but I am also fearful as well for some reason

>>56281865
Explain how USA can even accomolish bretton woods 2 though? In WW2 it was a slam dunk yeah but those factors do not exist anymore.

>>56272159
credit card usage just dropped to extreme lows, its fucking happening the recession is here.

those retarded enough to be long this market and in crypto are going to get fucking rekt.

>>56283059
Not so fast