/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56163227
>experts say
I was worried for a second there that I was wrong, now I'm definitely sure its gonna crash

>listening to the same retards invested in a majority stake market that literally has credit companies signing non english speaking sub humans for adjustable rate mortages with obviously retardedly high installments JUST LIKE 08 but on steroids.

>>56163227
>chief economist at the National Association of Realtors

>>56163250
>>56163256
>>56163273
silly goyim if nobody wants to buy or rent our houses we'll just import those who do real estate will never crash as long as the third world exists

>>56163273
Might as well call themselves
Real Estate Bagholders of America

>>56163256
>okay, we're having trouble running up over leveraged high risk mortgages the traditional way, what do we do?
>let's just shill being a landlord as the greatest form of passive incoom ever
>oh oh oh and FHA loans! 3% down, 500k mortgage in ParkingLotVille, Texas, 80k income
>LET'S GET SOME FUCKING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT AND NEGRO ONLY 0% DOWN 500 CREDIT SCORE MORTGAGES TOO MAH NIGGA

>>56163348
Anon the system itself is starting to buckle under its own hubris, white people who clearly can see whats coming are completely detached from it already.

I look forward to seeing the amish completely and utterly JUST the shit out of thousands of niggers simultaneously with double barrels and rifles. Completely carving straight through this depression like a large stone in the middle of a white rapids river.

>>56163348
So instead of selling houses to honest, hardworking Americans at reasonable prices you're going to sell them to thirdie poorfags for pennnies?
Good luck with that rabbi

I'll live in a van first, and piss on your fence every morning. If you call the cops on it or me, I'll walk around your neighborhood shirtless(I have a huge snake tattoo) for a few months to lower your property value.

>>56163227
it'll reverse and start to slump at some point, but it's going to take a while because the market's in a stalemate.

>used to be that median prices in a neighborhood were more or less determined by median incomes in that neighborhood
>wfh migration threw that off, some young couple raking in a combined $250k annually on a wfh deal with a company in san francisco moves to boise breaks that principle of income conformity not only in housing prices but also in general CoL in the area.
>now the neighborhood is too expensive for people to stay in, some sell and go, the rest hang on to their houses with ballooning property taxes as a slew of increased bills hit them. it takes a while, but over time, they become leveraged to the tits with debt.
>home prices have swung upwards, so maybe they can liberate themselves from their debts by selling the house and moving somewhere new
>they put it on the market for peak value
>except now the fed has cranked up interest rates roughly 300% since that price peak, so your loan is much more expensive than it would've been. this in conjunction with everything else in your life becoming more expensive limits your purchasing power
>$100k wfh jobs are all dried up, rest of the job prospects in your area aren't so hot because it never developed the economies that the coastal cities which produced those remote jobs did
>results in a stalemate where sellers can't drop prices because if they do, they can't cover their debts and might as well stay put and hope they can keep the lights on. they choose between being broke and having a home or being broke and homeless.
>buyers can't meet sellers' high price demands because their purchasing power has been wrecked by the twin factors of inflation and high interest rates on money.
>so homes stop trading, maybe drop in value modestly, but the whole market basically plateaus into inactivity.

it isn't going to be a big blowup, like it was in 2008. it'll be slow and creeping.

>>56163227
the experts are unironically correct

>>56163421
>it will be slow

absolutely wrong. Big money cannot move without it tilting the market, and greed is going to play a very important part in this event. A game of poker allows people to take turns, this is going to be a bidding war with the fastest Texas lot talkers in the history of auctions. 1 Quadrillion in derivatives coupled with the Feds interest rates make the 5.5% interest rate unsustainable in less than 1 1/4 years. Debt maturities are also going to spike. The bond market will blow up first. It will take mere days once it goes for shit to be hyperbolic.

>>56163348
It existed back in 2010

>>56163227
Claiming that something can't go down is a sure fucking sign that it's going to go down.

On a personal note, I hear LOTS of normies getting into real estate, or wanting to, thinking the exact same thing: Housing will go up forever, it's impossible to lose. When I see people who have...less than high intelligence, thinking something is free money, that's not a good sign.

>>56163227
oh no we got too cocky fellow millennial bros

>>56163442
in a just market, maybe. but if there's any signs of an immediately destabilizing event the government will just put everything on pause and pump enough false liquidity into the market to keep everyone from panicking again.

they will repeat this process ad nauseum until stagflation ultimately destroys the petro-dollar, and the world will be required to pivot towards a new de facto trade currency which will probably be remarkably difficult to lose track of.

or you'll be right and everything will get nuked. i don't think you're right, but the simple fact is that the market has been tweaked and fixed so much that it doesn't really operate according to its own logical underlying principles anymore.

I've been scoping out Redfin/Zillow over the last few weeks since I'm thinking of making a move in January/February. It's incredible the number of price cuts I'm seeing. The crash has already started. Sucks that I'll have to sell into it but at least I'll also be buying into it.

>>56163482
No one has control of it anymore anon, so naturally the wisest of people will leave it asap. It means hyperbolic swings are inevitable since the underlying hedgefunds and banks themselves are completely unable to control or coordinate stop loss prevention. Retail proved it had so much influence with gamestop that the shorts that were margin called for the hedgefunds were actively lagging the markets for weeks. The swings were so parabolic that you could tell when 25,000 - 100,000 shorts were margin called because they went too far into the negative and had to liquidate their holdings in order to exit their positions. Now retail has no more power. But big money is all thats left, and that means that the players are going to be incredibly sensitive to each others movements. The banks imploding in the backs of the minds means there is no safe haven and the fed isn't coming this time. They're going to jump the moment someone else tries to cheat and liquidate everything legally allowed all at one time.

>>56163227
>experts say
Oh shit. Get ready, bros.

>>56163516
>It's incredible the number of price cuts I'm seeing

Homes are selling faster than any year pre-COVID.

literally trying to get naive zoomers and alphas to buy their bags... every cycle it's the same thing, buy now or forever be priced out! buy my bags dammit! right now! Noooooo my assets!

>>56163227
I guess they won't mind if millenials and zoomers move back home in droves and just wait a few years to see how that pans out, right? Because this isn't the third time in history housing prices have disconnected to radically from reality, right?
>Millenials and Zoomers have become Lazy, Boring Losers moving back into their Parents Homes instead of getting a house like normal adults, is the internet to blame?

>>56163373
Amish people are anti violence and anti gun you absolute retard, jesus fucking christ if you think you're different from a nigger I've got another CIA psyop to sell you, now get back to your daily programming of goyslop and cia-approved porno/game addiction, you dumb cunt

>>56163597
You have no idea what the amish will do when threatened. They're not pacifists you idiot, there was a drunk steel mill worker harassing their women at a local gas station in philly. The two boys that were driving their coach knocked him on his ass.

>>56163227
>NAR
Lmao. As the ten year rises, multifamily floods the market, rents drop and cash flows on STRs dry up, single family will get fucking liqudated and theres nothing this scum sucking chink can do about it.

>>56163560
volume bucko

>>56163615
Amish don't use guns, participate in war or condone violence. You're illiterate, this fact is besides the point that niggers would never come near Amish in a scarcity situation - also besides the point that niggers have far more guns but again this is a moot point because they will be killing each other, not fighting a civil war against rural religious folk, dipshit.

Retards like you grossly overestimate their won intellect and competence, that's why you have these doomer fantasies - you literally have nothing else.

>>56163385
umm sorry goy but thirdies are willing to live 30 people in a single room compared to you entitled goys theyre just more efficient.

>>56163647
Amish 100% own guns

>>56163647
Their community is immune to societal draw downs. When they are threatened they will defend themselves. You are deluded into thinking that because you've never heard of them using violence even in a defense context only proves that the media doesn't talk about their demographic for this specific reason. They're strong, hardy and collectivist. Cope and seethe.

lmao rentoids stay renting forever

meanwhile it doesn't matter for me what "price" my house is, what matter to me is the carrying costs and guess what? Say all you want about "ballooning property taxes" but my taxes have barely increased over the past 5 years, meanwhile rents have doubled or tripled. I am actively saving thousands of dollars living alone in a three bedroom house with a large garage and backyard compared to renting some small 1 bedroom apartment near me, never selling.

>>56163667
Yes, they own old world guns for hunting and emergencies. You know jack shit about Amish people.
>>56163676
You have no idea what you're talking about. Go jerk off some more, you're an internet addicted loser.

>>56163597
Bro you realize that the Amish are HUGE firearms and hunting enthusiasts right? There are specific semiauto .22s colloquially known as "Amish Machine guns" cuz they love blasting away at varmints.

>>56163687
I literally see them every day on the way home from work. My family goes to the farmers market every other weekend and they're there selling produce. You're retarded.

At the rate things are going I'm still more than likely never going to be able to afford a house despite making decent money for my area, so this whole thing is like watching two hobos fight over a moldy sandwich

>>56163597
Out of touch citycuck low test moron. These people will chew you anorexic desiccated faggots up. Their food is actual food with actual nutrition inside of it, while you snack on seed oil coated cheeZ it's and sip on IPA hoppy beers.

>>56163640
>rents drop

Doesn't happen.

>>56163560
>volume lowest since 1990s
>"b-but not that many are listed!"
realtors are all going to be unemployed in the next year

>>56163765
>wages flat since 2008
>rent 2x'd

I'm sure this situation has no critical mass junction point. Surely buying the top of the real estate market with leverage for rent seeking purposes will secure profits over the next 5-10 years

>>56164094
look at Canada, there's no end in sight, just rising housing prices and hordes of more people flooding across the boarder and rooming 6 people in a 2 bedroom apartment to make ends meet.

>>56163597
>Americans are such do nothing cowards they are relying in the Amish to save them.

Just shoot niggers anon. It's not that bad. Take a stand for your freedom. Lol. Do something you fat faggot.

>>56163227
>chink says get a chink loan or rent a chinks property for eternity
Or we throw out chinks.

>>56164116
Canada is in the breadline stage of collapse. That's a somewhat poor example

>>56163227
Top signal.

>>56164094
>>56164116
This wage to rent ratio doesnt matter since theyll just force you to live 30 people in a single room.

>>56164238
yeah 2 more weeks until the hellish dystopia collapses haha it definitely just wont keep getting worse haha

Rent will never go down, even during the largest housing recession ever of 2008 rents never went down, if you buy a house now and hold long enough you will eventually be paying less than average rent because your mortgage will stay the same while rents will keep increasing, don’t get trapped renting forever

>says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors

Pls buy my bags!

>>56164320
Things will get a LOT worse before things get better, nobody's denying that. We're 100% entering the phase where everyone agrees this is a shithole however. There's no delusions of living in an equitable 1st world country

>>56164439
It doesnt matter when you still have tons of thirdies willing to move and work here it will only end when we turn into a complete shithole that no thirdie wants to move here anymore.

>>56163687
You are fucking stupid. Most Amish have photo id's and use gun stores for transfers in Ohio.

Imagine living in a shithole third world country like brazil or india with a 1% ruling class that owns everything, constant crime and corruption, a miserable life, and not even having clean drinking water, this is going to be the norm before anything gets better.

>>56163227
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note is 4.494 and going up. Mortgage rates are over 8% and rising. If 10 Year Treasury hits 5% mortgage rates will be over 9%

>>56163897
Inventory isn't coming back. People aren't going to give up their cheap mortgage payments. The median rate of people who hold a mortgage is 3.5%.

>>56164830
We know Chad and Stacy who bought their SFR in 2020 to raise their children in will be fine.

The bet is Guido, Samir, and Brad who each financed 10 Airbnb properties will be forced to sell once the HELOCalypse begins.

>>56163658

>>56165041
>HELOCalypse

> Even if there is a crash, they say, it probably won’t be the type of severe downturn that followed the 2008 financial crisis, when prices fell 33% nationally, according to CoreLogic figures
more like the national associal of copers and seethers. i've been saying all along that a 25% dip from the "plague home-buying frenzy" through about winter 2024 is the best expectation. so a $350k house can sell for, you know, less than $750k to a chink speculator

>>56165041
you're on the dot, m8. the little cottage inventory of personal finance bros who were like, "yo just take out a HELOC and buy a 2nd property bro," are gonna get assraped when they realize that being a landlord is actually hard work in a competitive field.

not that any of this matters to me, i've got plans to buy my grandparents' house in a private non-realtor sale and i hope to also have legal insurance by then. the best defense jews is other jews, in this case bankers vs lawyers

>>56165041
>Low income morons are able to get 10 mortgages for AirBNB properties

Renters have no idea how financing works.

>>56165257

>>56165450
Who said Guido et al. are low income? So long as the properties he borrowed against to buy more properties are all cash flow positive, life is good for Guido. However, all it takes is one link in the daisy chain to break.

>>56165041
>The bet is Guido, Samir, and Brad who each financed 10 Airbnb properties will be forced to sell once the HELOCalypse begins.
Theyll just switch to renting them out retard

>>56165450
don't pretend like there weren't a spate of finance bros acting like taking out a HELOC to buy a 2nd property was the same as a free house... all it took 3 years ago was an average credit score and resisting the impulse to speak ebonics at a banker

but yes, 818 score here, family on board with my goals, lawyer on standby. the transfer of my grandparents' home a year after their death to me at the tax-assessed value plus a small premium, is affordable and tax-efficient for all involved. no (((closing costs))) except my $600 for a home inspector for due diligence even though i'm aware of the major problems, and legal insurance so i can get a jew to jew the banker jews on my behalf if they try any funny business with (((interest rates)))

>>56165511
How leveraged are you?

>>56165511
you know how hard it is to be a landlord, right? you can expend a lot of time finding people with stable incomes who you trust to live in your house, arranging legal contracts, doing maintenance, replacing locks/appliances, etc. or you can outsource some or all of it for a fee that noticeably cuts into your bottom line

>>56163227
Only retards rent.

>>56165576
nah, renting makes perfect sense for me right now. though i inhabit half a house alone, so it's more of a pre-ownership trial
>can i fully furnish a house?
>how much can i smoke indoors?
>can i lay down my own wired network?
etc

>>56165536
oh no so much heckin effort picking up the phone occasionally to call for a plumber or looking at renter applications, thank god for all the landlords and the massive amount of work they put in for us

>>56165536
It must be so hard having someone pay your mortgage + tip, poor landlords

>>56165713
having helped my friend find a roommate, i can assure you that a gainfully employed, high-IQ white with no obvious behavioral issues is an exception to the norm. i'm just glad that my livelihood doesn't depend on weeding out thousands of illiterate negroes and mixeds, because i have a real job. my landlord is basically a stoner who larps as a "property investor" so it's all good

>>56165746
shit did someone post this on reddit antiwork or something? my previous landlord lost a shit-ton of money during the plague, the house was half-inhabited for like 2 years and he was a solid $600k-800k in debt across both units. you people don't understand that to achieve rather slim profit margins, someone has to occupy the house 100% of the time, and that to be competitive, you need to spend money on things that rentoids like such as freshly painted walls, garbage disposals, washer/dryer, efficient heating systems, etc.

>>56165772
So in other words, being a landlord is just too damn hard because it requires a little bit of effort here and there and isn't just 100% completely passive gains.
Unless he has dozens of tenants, no landlord is working anywhere close to full time. They basically get a second house paid off, and all they have to do is put in like 10 hours of effort a month, maximum. Big deal

>>56165772
>bag holder gets fucked
>landlord parasite good
>freedom bad
Fuck off. Landlords are the biggest heebs ever.

>>56163227
Yes, thats top bagholder speak.

explain like im a frog poster plz. how are high interest rates and housing prices far beyond the average wagie yearly sustainable, and what does this mean for the us economy as a whole?

>>56165780
let's just say that i've lived in a wide variety of places and that i'm not shilling for "landlords rights" by any means, they're leeches plain and simple. i am saying that a landlord who you personally know and who spends the time and money to provide a good living environment, is going to attract stable whites who rent long-term in a mutually beneficial business contract.

a slum lord or other such jew will only attract white trash, nonwhites, and other undesirables; in the event they attract a responsible white, that white is going to leave ASAP. i've rented from such people before, living in a shithole. fortunately i wasn't on the lease so i quit without penalty, but even if i was on the lease, i'd have told them to suck my dick and fuck a nigger corpse

that situation was so shitty, i had to start signing checks directly to the utility companies to prevent my retard roommate from misusing the funds. my better situation after that, the landlord had all bills in his name and pinged us if we were 4-6 months or several hundred dollars late on utils, interest-free. so you can see how renting to a low-class clientele in that renter-friendly arrangement (proxied utility bills) could easily backfire

>>56165806
meh, renting is useful. especially in places like germany where landlords need to give like 10 years notice to evict and all apartments are inherently unfurnished (that means there are not even light fixtures or kitchen cabinets)

buying is obviously better in the long run assuming you know where you want to live and can provide everything yourself - that refrigerator in your cuckbox isn't magically there, you need to buy it

buying a house isn't insurmountable to anyone who can afford one, if you find yourself bitching online about "muh housing market," try living alone in a big rental and being responsible for 75-90% of all responsibilities first

Fuck. Crash is coming.

>>56165863
what the fuck, not even light fixtures? What does the apartment owner rip them out after the previous person leaves?

Lol I have bought two houses here in the US and not only did they come with all appliances, the previous home owners left most of their old furniture.

for example, say i'm a rentoid in boston where 50% of all apartments turn over every september. the landlord is some greedy jew who rents a shithole in a nigger neighborhood through a soulless chink rental agency. do i look there, or do i go to the thousands of other results for real apartments in non-shithole neighborhoods where i can interact directly with the homeowner himself? the latter is obviously more competitively positioned, but a lot more work on the homeowner's part. there are also gradations, e.g., i've rented a nice apartment whose psycho bitch spic landlord was filtered through a chink agency

>>56165900
in europe, unfurnished means literally unfurnished. you get a set of architectural rooms only. also, eurocucks are poor so they can't afford to do things like buy brand new refrigerators every time a new tenant moves in

i'm actually still kinda coping and seething that my apartment has shitty kwikset locks. i told my landlord that even schage sc-1 is better at the same price and offered to split the cost with him, or provide my own medeco locks on the condition i take them when i leave. and of course my friend who moved downstairs got brand new schlage locks

>>56165925
so when you move into an apartment do you hire like an electrician and plumber to hook up everything? Man that seems like it would be difficult if you moved frequently.

Here in the US when people move they mostly don't want to keep their old stuff because it's too much of a hassle to move it, so they leave it in the old house so they can furnish the new house with new furniture/appliances.

>>56165953
i have no fucking idea m8, it's what my friends who live in europe told me. i visited a friend in berlin and he said that euros move their whole kitchen from place to place, which includes shit like stoves and refrigerators. not just pots, pans, knives, etc. i didn't have the heart to ask, what if your shelves don't fit in the new apartment? he prolly would've hit me with some euro-cope about how germans rarely move because rental protections are so amazing

>>56163227
the government will just print kike money to keep everything above water. the smart money is already leaving the U.S. for countries that are whiter with a culture.

>>56165979
to be clear, he's also paying like $1300/mo for a ~1700 sq ft apartment that would go for $4000/mo if he moved in today

>>56165576
>Only retards rent.

not really. you could buy at the top with historic increases and see how fun it is when prices drop.

>>56165996
maybe it's actually ~1300 sq ft, i dunno. his apartment is roughly the same size as mine, slightly larger, and mine is 1225 sq ft. either way, his rent can't increase more that say 5% over 5 years and he basically can never be evicted. but he did have to buy all his shit, even basic shit like kitchen countertops and shelves

>>56165523
You cannot get a loan unless you have 2 years of income tax filed showing the income necessary to carry the mortgage, and the max they will lend is 45% of gross income.

Renters really have no clue how any of this works.

>>56166094
>credit scores start with 6
>DTI is a substantial percent
so basically what your table shows is that jews will exploit retards to screw them and repossess their ill-informed house purchases
>t. DTI is infinite/null and credit score starts with 8

>>56164830
> PEOPLE WILL JUST STOP MOVING AND STOP GETTING DIVORCED AND STOP CHANGING JOBS. AND NO NEW HOUSES WILL BE BUILT

this is the belief homies are holding on to.

>>56166137
>banks are lending to people who can't make their payments.

My god renters are clueless.

Have a 30 year mortgage. Me my wife and her boyfriend are managing it just fine.

>brb I think they want some coffee and cigarettes

>>56166852
the rate increases started in 2022 dumbass. note that the rate was also low in 07

>‘Move in and get a free Tesla,’ say desperate developers
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/free-tesla-house-buyer-new-builds-developers/
This collapse is going to be brutal and the goyim will all be underwater.

>>56163250
>now I'm definitely sure its gonna crash
>>56163385
>So instead of selling houses to honest, hardworking Americans
>>56163516
>The crash has already started.
>>56165882
>Fuck. Crash is coming.
>>56167314
>This collapse is going to be brutal


yall keep forgetting we are living in clown world
if these criminals running things weren't criminals, they would have started gently raising interest rates 10 years ago when everyone noticed inflation
instead they did 3 more QEs after that and were even talking about recovery from 2008 in 2018

the take away from the 2008 was that depreciation is enemy #1 and they will never allow that to happen again
enter blackrock. the retail front for the federal reserve
blackrock will be leant unlimited funds to buy up houses at bloated prices
but since blackrock is basically the fed, the fed will secretly forgive all the loans made

not fair
thats exactly the point
if it was fair the plebs might be able to make moves to preserve their wealth
being unfair is the only way to crush the nation
and we'll be begging for CBDC before the fire is out

picrel