/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55787353
bitcoin is pumping
that means the economy is fine
cope bobo cope

>we're all fucked
NAH just amerikkka

>>55787353
Any politician that isn't holding millions of dollars in T-bills but stocks, shouldn't receive a single vote.

>>55787353
This looks like a 'publicapp' that is shilling with a treasury.gov infographic.
their * mentions crypto too though lmao

>>55787597
who the fuck is Apex btw?
they took over a mutual fund investment of mine and keep making it impossible to withdraw

5% yield on 200% inflation is good, goyim
You should be thankful for bidenomix improving your economy

How do I invest in Treasury bills? I'm confused by a 1-3 month bill claiming 5%. I'm invested 100k in BIL and I'm getting $400 per month in dividend, so basically 3.4% annually.

>>55787353
Look up 30 year treasury yields in the 80’s you raging homosexual. You were making 16% on money markets at that time.
With that said, I’m also unironically an economist and have advanced degrees in financial economics and literally nothing is making sense right now academically speaking. This just means low IQ normies are more retarded than our models can account for. We also don’t factor in artificial demand for housing via importing the entire third world in a matter of a decade. Don’t let them fool you with their fake and gay inflation numbers we get this week. “2% long run” is there goal which means we need basically none to offset the “9%” we got last year. Also know that whatever number you see is fake and gay because of TIPS bonds. We let the same people who issue variable rate debt control the variable rate. That’s like incomprehensibly retarded.

>>55787634
What do you do for a job? Has it been worth it? Income?

>>55787642
I am currently an economic researcher on some projects my professors I studied under are doing. I’m the data guy for those. Unironically, we are using crime data and I can confirm that despite accounting for less than 25% of the population in the area I am looking at, blacks commit over 71% of the murders.

My day job is working as an analyst at a buy side investment firm. The federal reserve wouldn’t hire me since I was white and needed a diversity researcher so I paper chased. I make well over 2X the average salary of people my age in my area.

>>55787499
Lol

>>55787634
16% interest in 33 trillion debt would be hilarious.
I'm glad tradfags time is up

>>55787709
Sounds dope op god speed. would have been selling your soul for the fed anyway.

>>55787709
>Unironically, we are using crime data and I can confirm that despite accounting for less than 25% of the population in the area I am looking at, blacks commit over 71% of the murders.
People without fathers commit crimes. They just did it to blacks first. Now they’re rolling out the propaganda to make fatherless families for all races.

>>55787741
He's a pol lurker lol he doesn't even have a job

>>55787743
Look man, you can make whatever excuse you want. The destruction of the nuclear family with the introduction of the welfare state has had impacts that are far reaching. In any case, I was raised by parents and neither had a father figure in their life. It’s all random, but statistically, less random for some groups as opposed to others.

>>55787761
I see why you’d think that I’m unemployed, but you’re obviously a projecting poltard

>>55787741
Thanks anon. Many blessings your way.
Captcha: 888T8

>>55787743
>>55787761
Why are you even here when Reddit is just across the hall?

>>55787499
You think other countries are doing better!?! lol

>>55787795
He's insulting people without giving any good information.

Oh wow they had high interest rates in the 80s, so what does that mean?
It isn't possible in today's climate.

How about somebody post something that furthers the understanding of what's going on without calling people homos and lying about trying to work at the Fed.

>>55787803
I would say, China, and other countries, aren't buying our debt, for the first time in a long time, and for many reasons.

>>55787803
> hurrr durr this anon posted info I didn’t know but wasn’t what I wanted to hear exactly so I better assume he’s lying

That’s how you sound to me. There are several governments across the world issuing bonds with 12% coupon payments right now. The US just got downgraded by a rating agency and you think debt isn’t going to get more expensive for the US? It has been more expensive before and people have more of it now than ever. You think they won’t prop this shit up for as long as they need?

>>55787815
The whole BRIICs thing and countries testing the waters outside USD as world reserve is lowering demand for US debt for sure.

I've heard that Japan is having a sovereign debt crisis and might even require a bail out from the US because they hold so many t bills dumping them would be catastrophic

>>55787833
I bet both of those are solid reasons.

>>55787833
BRICS is a psy op. All of those countries fucking lie about literally everything all the time to save face. China just within the last 2 years let American auditors in to look at their companies because they need western money. Russia has a sphere of influence that consists of terrorism and poppy as exports. Brazil has fucked politics, India has nothing of value to offer the world in all honesty. I wouldn’t be worried about the USD

>>55787832
You realize at those rates the interest in the debt is higher than all the tax revenue and that's not even accounting for expenses.

The game is over.

>>55787852
Well anon it isn’t like they replace every single bond with a 14% yielding 30 year overnight. Long-run that isn’t sustainable. The bond prices didn’t stay that high in the 80’s permanently either. I’m just saying it’s not impossible like you seemed to think it was.

The game is never over anon, you can check out any time you want but you can never leave

>>55787850
Yeah sure, but when the US took Russia's foreign reserve account at the start of the Ukraine war it showed that the bank accounts countries hold their t bills in aren't safe from sanctions.

So whether BRIICs trades in poppies, Bitcoin, or whatever, they're not going to be trading in t bills anymore.

>>55787709
>buy side investment firm
any good countries to invest in or move to for the foreseeable future? also any thoughts on a career change from tech into high finance?

>>55787861
I'm pretty sure the interest payments just surpassed military expenses in USA.
It's over 1t now

>>55787634
The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they IMAGINE they can design.

>>55787864
FinTech is lucrative. Finance is going the way of the quant these days. But if you can build applications and are good with data, any company will take you in their middle office. When I say middle office, these are the people that actually make trades happen, wire the money and bitch at the custodians to do their fucking job.

>>55787879
What's hilarious too is all this funny business is being done under the guise of USA world police, USA environmental conscious, USA equality over excellence, etc.

So the USD never even stood a chance no matter how much you try to micromanaging it.

>>55787832
looks like the contraction of long term debt cycle aka deleveraging is near

>>55787864
America has always paid their debt. So, with 5 percent payout, that's not a bad country to invest in.

>>55787879
Well said. One of my favorite models to look at was the gravity model. Economists stole it from physicists and basically the model says that GDP size is correlated with trade volume and distance is negatively correlated with trade. Example: the UK would trade more with France than Australia. This is largely true but you get weird results if you look at say Boston trading with Toronto versus LA. Other parts of the world we live in mess things up; in this case bureaucratic paperwork that happens when you trade across borders

>>55787903
When building financial models, I use the shortest term treasury yields as my “risk free rate”. No duration and like you said America always pays its bills.

>>55787933
>America always pays its bills

Nah they always lie and change the rules

>>55787941
Be that as it may, they are still standing and you’ll do nothing to change that. So, basically paid in full.

>>55787948
So hold Bitcoin in private custody because USA is done.

I didn't get the jab, those who did are pissed.
People will know in time the whole pandemic was an emergency bank bail out after the September 2019 repo markets crisis.

The banks have 0 reserves.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm
As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions.

They locked us down the same day they changed the reserve rules.

March 15, 2020
States begin to implement shutdowns in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html

Getting pushed around is bullshit.

>>55787974
If every dollar is loaned into circulation, we will never pay it back because there is interest on every loan.

The game is never over anon. You can check out anytime you want but would will never leave.

Also based fellow non-vax fren

>>55787803
Like I said, if you need your hug box to keep you safe from the actual world, Reddit is across the hall. You will be happier, we will be happier, but please, never come back.

>>55787987
You haven't posted anything relevant to OP this whole thread.

Kill yourself.

>>55787416
Bitcoin is dead, all crypto is dead. The FED killed it.

>>55788001
Kek just across the hall kiddo.

>>55787628
>5%
that's yearly. If that was for 3 months then what the fuck, it would be already over.

>>55788009
Let me guess you have a "portfolio" of shitcoins?
Just based off how gullible you are and proud you're on 4channel lmao

>>55788011
But I want it to be over.
>>55788019
I'm always amazed how people like you crawl out of the wood work from the most simple posts 'I'm looking at crime statistics, and yes the meme is correct.' is basically all anon said and you immediately sperged out. Genuinely shocked you're unvaxed, I suppose that's why you try to fit in here so you can dodge a bullet here and there. Perhaps you should look in the mirror before calling someone gullible.

Side note, I don't disagree about the fatherly comment, it is what destroyed the black community partly, but everything else shows just how stupidly you go about it. The world doesn't fit into your little nice box, sorry.

>>55788047
>is what destroyed the black community partly
No black communities in the entire history of the entire world got anywhere under any family structures.
Niggerdom may as well be genetic given all the evidence we have.

>>55788086
That just isn’t true. You should read or watch some of Thomas Sowell’s books and interviews, and what he has to say about the erosion of the black American family unit. No one who is intellectually honest will doubt that there are genetic components to intelligence. But it is a cop-out to say that black America is in the state it is because of that and that alone. Black, white, and Jewish liberals have created countless policies to keep blacks perpetually dependent on welfare, instead of investing in their communities conditionally based upon how well past money was spent. And liberals and conservatives alike have made a sport of locking black men up for non-violent crimes, like smoking cannabis, which has had a profound effect on single parenthood, and, by extension, real criminality and recidivism.
>t. white libertarian anon

>>55788664
>>55788086
>>55788047
I thought this thread was about T-bills?

>>55787634
>have advanced degrees in financial economics
>nothing is making sense right now
>This just means low IQ normies are more retarded than our models can account for

>>55788852
>fAGD8ddE
>fag daddy
LoL at you

>>55789015

>>55788852
… according to the models we have… that’s literally exactly what I said, the field is out of touch with reality.

>>55788852
t b h anon you're replying to sounds like he's 27 tops and doesn't very well know what he's talking about
the field of economics in itself is not nonsense, it's just that a lot of people in it are not that qualified. just like how blockchain is 99% scams on the surface level but has some of the most gifted mechanism designers on a deeper level

>>55789051
I mean believe what you want about me. You do have some good points, like many people in the field aren’t really qualified. There’s so many differing views of the macroeconomic environment right now by seemingly every institution it muddies the water, especially when they have something to gain from it one way or another.
Blockchain is a really cool system with the open, public ledger though. It was the AI of 2 years ago, where people just wanted to use it almost for the sake of doing so

>>55789040
> the field is out of touch with reality
The field assumes that the market is functioning; the models don't model the assumptions on which they are based on not holding. No model models the violation of its own boundary conditions, it's like asking what the RPM of the engine is if there's no gas in the tank.
You can tell them that next time they're wondering why the models don't work. What's happening in real terms is pretty easy to figure out: they're trying to keep up appearances of market function, thus they try to put out every fire and massage every indicator. They also distort market functioning themselves to a degree that's unworkable long-term. The standard growth models "mandating" 2% p.a. themselves assume a growing economy, thus they all don't work in a non-growing one. Most of these models were designed, if unknowingly, to model an expanding economy, like one we had 1500-2000, or 1950-2000. Obviously they wouldn't work if the economy isn't expanding.
It's completely bizarre that inflation would make non-fiat assets go down in fiat-terms, for instance, yet it happens because people, while the inflation is going on, are pricing in anticipated inflation-fighting, causing people to throw away all the inflation-hedges just when they would be needed. An institution like the Fed is fighting and supporting the market at the same time.
Likewise, the stock market's function of price-discovery can't be fulfilled when all anyone does is passive investing because price-insensitive flows come to dominate trading, and one cannot have 5% yield on the average investment, thus banking doesn't work normally either, etc.

>>55787353
The solution is war, against China

>>55787608
It was the clearing agency which turned off the buy button for GameStop in ‘21, per the decision of Tricia Rothschild. Yes that Rothschild

>>55789015
wtf i want to be a fag daddy..

>>55787634
I don't think economists have ever created a single working model in history. All you hear from them ever are copes like:
>This just means low IQ normies are more retarded than our models can account for.

>>55787353
That is a private company selling a service to social media niggers like you

>>55788664
This

>>55787628
can you calculate this:
400*12/100000

>>55787634
the thing that makes least sense is the stock market. the investment industry is shilling the "companies are delivering beats" card. but if you look at the actual y-o-y earnings, well they are about to post -4% decline for this earnings season and the earnings declined in 2022 too. Add inflation to this and these earnings should be worth way less. What the fuck is up with the stonk market then

>>55788047
>Genuinely shocked you're unvaxed
..are they seriously people that still think the vax was a good idea in 2023?

>>55791567
No it's just cope.

>>55787499
>>55787499
kek

you do know of all economies the US is in by far the best shape right? The only other country that's close is switzerland because all 12 people in their country and bankers. but seriously they do have the population of a shitty flyover state.

>>55791708
>you do know of all economies the US is in by far the best shape right?
the vibrant diversity strikes again, here we go latinxsisters!!!

>>55787628
SPAXX or FDRXX or FDLXX (Fidelity) or VMFXX (Vanguard)

Easy 5% yield with minimal effort.

>gov prints 6-8%/year on average
>up to 40% in 2020
>WOW 5.4% YIELD IS SO GOOD HURRRRR
Holy shit just buy literally anything that is scarce and doesn't expire and you will beat treasury "yield," its fucking shitcoin ponzinomic APY paid by money printing.

>>55789250
If you analyze our economy from an energetic flow perspective then what's actually happening becomes very clear.

>>55787353
Inflation is going to just explode at some point. Nobody buying bonds turns government printing back into straight money printing. The game is up.

>>55788005
Correct. Why buy some socialist pyramid scheme if dollar at 10years give 4% a year risk free

>>55787499
Anon, what do you think happens when the US collapses? Everyone else is completely unaffected?

Stay in school.

>>55793184
spoonfeed pls sir

>>55793659
Brown people, the government, and zoomers are all retards and we are going to starve to death in The Greatest Depression because of them

>>55788664
>africans outside of africa behave like africans
>it's not genetic though

>>55793697
Western world is fucked no doubt, but other countries will fare off better. question is, how do we identify those countries. looking at the world economy from an "energetic flow" perspective sounds interesting, but too vague

>>55792114
> fed prints
> gov borrows and pays debts by taking up moar debt for whatever rate sanhedrin feel like
much worse than shitcoin casino

>>55793829
The phenomenon you see emerge in various places and on various levels is deadlock: the degradation of functioning due to interlinked parts not interoperating. The deadlocks emerge because the system that emerges in the real world increasingly violates the assumptions of the models according to which the system operates.
Over time, what emerges is economic system Y, whereas the participants in Y believe that the system is X.
To make this concrete: something like monetary policy mediated via interest rate adjustments is only viable in a consumer-spending-driven economy, since what the Fed is trying to adjust is the price consumer credit, replaying the playbook from the 70s, when the inflation was driven by that (and the Eurodollar-system). If price lives go out of control on the up- or downside, then adjusting interest rates is like pushing on string, to quote Keynes: the control system is ineffective because it makes fundamentally incorrect assumptions about the world.
This is why >>55787634 "none of the models make sense". It's not a question of cleverness, save for the cleverness of figuring that no amount of fine-tuning and policy-crafting is going to make the square peg fit into the round hole. Due to how these systems operate, a PhD economist can barely, if at all, figure out what would be obvious to a small child.
From this initial assumption, you can reason out the usual crises (EM currency crisis, US bond market crisis, pension crisis, shadow banking crisis, the Fed buying real estate (you're laughing now, let us see)).

>>55793198
they still print gigantic amounts of dollars
higher borrowing rates does not equal less printing, although the relationship may exist to some extent. They still can print as fucking much as they want not for gov, but for themselves

>>55793829
IIRC Soros said in a decade old interview, China will be the main motor ot the W economy, but a motor much smaller
so China of 2040 won't offer more quality of life as post WW2 USA, fucking obvious, but the point is there is nowhere to run

next centres > China, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia
Brasil when it changes flag

>>55787850
>BRICS is a psy op
This guy fucks. I've been betting on the SPY hitting 600 by March 2025 and its been working out pretty well. Whatever the sentiment is I do mostly the opposite. I've recently sold my calls, waiting to buy the dip now.

>buy T-bill and lose a little to inflation
>stay cash and lose a lot to inflation
>buy ETFs and get rugpulled
>buy shitcoins and get rugpulled

ya im staying with the T-bills

>>55795081
>bend over for the state and take a guaranteed lose because you're too much of a pussy bitch to handle a little volatility
peasant logic

>>55795133
whats the better option? don't shill me internet money pls

>>55794555
how are you preparing for the crises?

>>55794562
I agree with Brazil, China, and Asia in general.... but Iran?

>>55795930
>Iran
Oil. Despite green policies being pushed the world still has a massive demand for oil. They will only restrict it from the plebians, if we're lucky we get synthetic clothing or pills. The elite will still have gas cars, planes, boats and a comfy heated mansion.

>>55787499
Do you realize how many countries get a cold when the dollar sneezes??

>>55795081
>buy ETFs and get rugpulled

All memes aside, is it genuinely over now? I have everything in US stonks, Nasdaq 100. Should one sell and get back in after the collapse (after at least -50%)?

>>55795081
that's why you buy eth

>>55787353
>>55787353
F***k you, Anon. I've found another way to earn by owning a fraction of Tesla on Eloop via Polka and profiting from their daily revenue stream.

>>55795081
I'm sticking with utility tokens, Anon. Buying DOT, ATOM, RIO and adding KREST to scoop the upcoming airdrop.

>>55796842
>>55797458

>>55796842
Buying ETH and DePIN tokens like PEAQ, Storj, and SIA is not brainier for an oldfag like myself.

>>55796840
Yes

>>55796821
One more good reason for why it's being fazed out.

>>55795930
>how are you preparing for the crises?
The usual stuff. The biggest risks are
>inflation
>credit events
>capital controls
>supply-chain issues
You can hedge out 1 via hard money (whatever form you prefer), 2 via not keeping money in dubious places, 3 you can hedge out via anonymous money, 4 with drinking water, dried pasta, and vitamins (if you're in the West). The world will still be total dogshit, but you can optimize your personal outcomes that way. The ROI of something like BTC is biphasic:
the first driving factor is adoption as a financial asset, the second is the usage as a settlement medium. In a functioning market in which people are just unhappy, the first factor dominates, thus it behaves like a "risk-asset" (not sure what the "risk" it's betting on is, other than "interest rates"). In a situation in which payment systems break down for whatever reasons, the second one comes to dominate. If it dominates a lot, you won't be able to buy BTC at all.

>>55788664
Treat a man like an animal or a criminal and he will eventually become one.

>>55787634
So when the fuck are you guys having a séance for the ghost of Paul Volcker?