/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55726978
Sex him

>>55726978
1 thousand dollar bills do not exist

>>55726978

Idk...

>>55727050
How do thousands dollar bills not exist if there's a thousand dollar bill in there?

>>55726978
The correct answer is XRP

>>55727062
not legal tender so worthless

>>55726978
Take neither, turn 360 degrees and walk away.

>>55726978
Here's your answer

https://megasociety.org/noesis/44/newcomb.html

>>55726978
If I have knowledge of the being’s predictions and the fact that he will place the $1,000,000 in box b if he predicts I pick box b, and he is always right, then I take only box b.

>>55726978
The closed box? Isnt that pretty obvious?

>>55727156
It's not guaranteed that he's always right, in fact he could be lying about his past track record and predictions.

>>55727116
>An object gifted to you from the first ever alien encounter in the history of mankind
>Worthless
It would literally be worth millions

>>55727178
It literally states he has been accurate 100% of the time with the past 999 people he's done it on

>>55727178
Its still a 50% chance at a million dollar. Not taking it would be stupid.

>>55727180
nobody would believe you

>>55727190
How is it 50%? It could be 0% because he's just lying and fucking with you.

>>55727202
1000$ is equal to 0 comparwd to 1 million dollars

>>55727202
He could by lying about the 1000 Dollar as well. It might be counterfeight or whatever. Whats your fucking point?

>>55727160
yes, extremely. take box b.

Obviously just take B. 1k is negligible compared to the likely million

>>55727218
A $1000 bill could at least theoretically be inspected for authenticity. It's something, vs. nothing.

>>55726978
uhhh I don't understand any of this shit. what? choose between box blah blah. the only box I want is ur mum's

>>55726978
I'm gonna take box A.
if I want box B he's gonna make it worthless.
and I know it's box A box B or just box B, so my answer is too retarded he's not going to predict it. you can't predict stupid.

>>55726978
if you take the 1000 and buy xrp you basically have a million

>>55727233
it's not just likely, it's almost guaranteed. anyone in their right mind would want the million over the thousand, so they'd pick box b, which lmao would predict, which would lead to the million being in the box.
if someone would pick both boxes, they'd know that lmao would predict that as well and that it would lead to box b not having the million. the only reasonable option is to pick box b and take the million.

>>55727130
Based Langan

I don't get it. He already decided whether to put the money in there. Wouldn't you just choose both?

You getting the million dollars comes down to luck. You need to pick what the alien thinks you will predict.

But there is a guarantied 1k that you get if you pick both boxes. It makes sense to always pick both boxes

>>55727283
It's $1,000,000 or $1,001,000

The safe answer is Box B for $1,000,000

But if you pick Box B and it has $1,000,000 then you would assume that it would make more sense to pick both boxes to get the $1,001,000.

It's just a paradox of the being able to control what's inside the box based on what you choose. Is the $1,000,000 simply inside Box B or is there something else at play that allows the Being to influence that reality based on being able to predict what you choose?

>>55727289
The TLDR of his essay is that it is metaphysically possible for there to be a demon in the machine that can predict what you do while you also have free will. It is something paranormal.

So you better just pick Box B.

>>55727342
>if he predicted you would take both boxes, he left the closed box empty.
so it's $1,000,000 or $1,000

>>55726978
Holy shit
Anyone who read this and didn't choose to take both boxes....kill yourself for being an unnecessary waste of the oxygen on this planet. I mean it.

>>55727396
Nice try
But no cigar

>>55726978
dr;ns

>>55726978
Imagine not buying bitcoin at $1000.

>>55727354
No you still don't get it

It's $1,000,000/$1,001,000 or $1,000,000/$1000 depending on how the laws of determinism work. Assuming that it can be $1,000,000/$1,000 would require a completely different way of thinking about reality so logically it would be $1,000,000/$1,001,000 if you think the way most people think.

It's a paradox

>>55726978
You take both

>>55726978
I would just take box B, I don't really need $1000 anyway but $1M would be nice

>>55727180
>999 other people already have fake alien bills

>>55727719
It sounds like it's based on if you read it correctly or not, but this example doesn't seem to have any of the ambiguities that make some of them questionable.

And fuck it have a Bertrand's Box

>>55728026
100%

>>55726978
I take both because I have no control or knowledge of his prediction nor can I make a reasoned assumption based on his accuracy. Realistically it is equally possible that most people make either choice. Therefore the safest option is to guarantee myself $1000 and simply hope that I end up with the extra million.

>>55727719
Its a pair o box, not a paradox

I flip a coin

>>55728026
1/3

>>55728026
TWO thirds according to my bayzeen analysis

I take a big shit on the floor, and hit em with a funky fresh hip hop dance.

Which side tips?
Reminder: if you can't get this you are NGMI!!!!!

>>55726978
Run a Chainlink price oracle based on the data onchain from the previous attempts to ensure truthful metrics. I’d write a smart contract based on the data and VRF functionality. Based on the best weighted median average of the results I’d make my decision.

Simple as.

>>55728026
uhh 50% obviously

literally just do this with some skittles and shotglasses or something if you don't believe

>>55728254
idk, i use modern scales

>>55726978
1. Take both boxes
2. Leave box A somewhere and ONLY take box B with you
3. Boom, you're now a millionaire. Plus, you have a cool alien box.

>>55726978
B only

>>55728313
ok smarty pants
which side would weight more on your "modern scales"?

>the boxes are in front of you
>the alien has already either put the money in or not put it in
>taking 1 box or both boxes won't change that
Take both boxes, obviously.

>>55727050
they do exist, they're just 100 years old

>>55726978
B since the spacefaggot placed my million with high probalility in there then

>>55727130
9 paragraphs in I realised he goes on for another 20+
What the fuck is the answer?!

>>55727130
I gave this a few minutes, 1 min in i knew i was not equipped and a little after that i wouldnt be able to tell if this was like a fake paper just stringing giant bullshit sentences together.
I skipped to last few paragraphs and there isnt an answer i could discern.
What is the exec summary?

One thing that's never embellished on is does the being place the $1,000,000 off of your choice or off of the eventual outcome of the box that is chosen. These are two different things.

>walk into room with ND
>claim in front of him
>heads is only the black box
>tails is both boxes
>flip the coin without looking
>show it to ND
Does he shoot 100% in this scenerio? If so, we're dealing with a being that can predict the outcome of our reality, and not just the outcome of our inner choice. Very important distinction.

>>55728254
to the side of the ping pong ball

>>55726978
The answer is to take the closed box.
If the alien is bullshitting you cool you missed $1,000 or specifically a "thousand-dollar bill" who gives a shit.
If the alien isn't bullshitting you then you get $1million.
It's that easy.

>>55727719
no i do get it. my perspective is the far more reasonable one. all the facts are right there in the image, and they all lead to the conclusion i've drawn, so it is simply incorrect interpretation to assume otherwise.
>>55728163
>I have no control or knowledge of his prediction
yes you do, the image tells us.

>A dog walks into a bar and says, ‘I cannot see a thing. I’ll open this one. -Sumerian drinking joke
If you don't get it you've never made it and never will.

>>55726978
The alien has a function
>pred(X) = 1 or 2
for the number of boxes that agent X will take.
However, X references pred'(X'), where pred' is X's own modeling of the alien's pred, and X' is the internal model of X of himself. X' references X'', and so on.
Any fixed point of the calculation of pred, pred', pred'', pred''',... would be a stable solution.

Suppose pred(X) = 1
Then it'd make sense to only take box B.
Suppose pred(X) = 2
Then it'd make sense to take both boxes, since box B would have been left empty.
If we call X's decision-function dec(X), then the optimal solution is
>dec(X) = pred(X)
So if referencing the being's prediction is allowed, one would say
>I'll pick whatever you predicted I'll pick.
If not, then
>I'll have what everyone else had, since the sample size of 1000 is the weaker, probabilistic form of evidence.
However, to spin it further: while this does require us to "import" the knowledge of what people generally choose, the low number of outliers (1) suggests that that one outlier made a superior decision to everyone else, thus one would say:
>I'll pick what that one lone guy picked.

>>55730396
This has the same core as the Monty Hall problem (if we only want a probabilistic solution, not an deterministic one): imagine there's a thousand doors and you have to randomly pick the one with the prize, with the other 999 having nothing behind them.
>you pick some door, let's say 101
>the host opens up 998 doors, all having nothing behind them
>for some INEXPLICABLE reasons, he leaves door 284 closed. Oh wow. What's up with that???
Likewise: the being apparently can predict the actions of 999 of 1000 people but A SINGLE PERSON's actions, it was not able to predict. While it is of course possible with some probability that 999 of people made the profit-maximizing decision and that one guy was just some lone idiot, what is far more likely is that the one guy (like the one door) actually got the big prize.

>>55726978
The alien's prediction is already locked in. It doesn't matter what the closed box contains at this point. This is a simple choice between X or X+1000. We choose both boxes for X+1000.

If he's nearly always right and it's very likely his prediction is true, I take the closed box. It's almost self-fulfilling.

>>55730444
If we can't know what anyone else picked, then one would pick according to the best decision-procedure one had, and then invert it, because it's far more likely than one's decision-making is like that of the 999, not of the 1. However, there is, hilariously, also the possibility that one's decision-making IS like that of the 1, meaning that one would have the worst outcome if one had the best decision-making.

>>55730396
>>55730444
>>55730470
None of that shit matters. Reread the question.

This is to be treated like the prisoner's dilemma. We can spend all day analyzing what the other guy said/didn't say but it doesn't matter. Talking will *always* grant us a lesser sentence. Taking both boxes will *always* grant us an additional $1000.

>>55730396
>>I'll have what everyone else had, since the sample size of 1000 is the weaker, probabilistic form of evidence.
>However, to spin it further: while this does require us to "import" the knowledge of what people generally choose, the low number of outliers (1) suggests that that one outlier made a superior decision to everyone else
>>55730444
>the being apparently can predict the actions of 999 of 1000 people but A SINGLE PERSON's actions, it was not able to predict.
nope, there is no thousandth person, no outlier. the lmao predicted 999/999 (100%) correct.

>>55730515
>Taking both boxes will *always* grant us an additional $1000.
correct, while taking box B alone will *always* grant us an additional $1,000,000

>>55730607
No.

You gain nothing "proving the alien wrong". His prediction is already locked in. At the time of the offer the closed box contains X and choosing both nets us X+1000.

>>55730626
we aren't proving the alien wrong, we're proving him 100% correct, yet again. his prediction is locked in, which is that i will pick box B, because that is exactly what i would pick in order to guarantee the million.

>>55726978
Take B every single time because 1k is fuck all and 1 million is a lot and so who cares about all that mumbo jumbo thinky stuff, I just fucking spin the dice and hope I get lucky.
I'd get the million too, because who the FUCK takes a guaranteed 1k when there's a chance they'll get 1 million?

>>55727050

>>55726978
I'm taking the closed box, I don't have a justification for this. My gut tells me so. Plus I'll forget about missing out on the chance to miss 1000 dollars in a week, I'll live with regrets that I fucked up the chance to win 1 million dollars for a lifetime. Smoothbrain strategy.

>>55726978
the youtube video of you meeting the alien, listening to the situation, and deciding what to do would be worth billions of US dollars in revenue for the rest of your life

>>55730680
>we aren't proving the alien wrong, we're proving him 100% correct, yet again. his prediction is locked in, which is that i will pick box B, because that is exactly what i would pick in order to guarantee the million.
Box B already either has 1 million in it, or not. Whether or not you choose both boxes doesn't change what's in box B. So if the alien thought you were going to take only box B, there would be 1 million dollars in it. By taking both, you get 1million + 1000. If the Alien thought you were going to take both boxes, box B would be empty (and if you just took box B you would end up with nothing).

I'm struggling to understand how so many people are coming to the same conclusion as you... are you all retards?

Take the box furthest from me, simple as.

>>55728293
4/10, mediocre bait

>>55726978
Shoot the glow in the dark fuck on his face, Ayy lmao are a psyop

Reminds me of the trolley problem. I never understand why anyone wouldn't pull the lever. And I don't understand why anyone wouldn't take both.

>>55730598
>nope, there is no thousandth person, no outlier. the lmao predicted 999/999 (100%) correct.
Heh, you're right. The number "999" somehow made me think that it must have been 999/1000, not 999/999.

>>55726978
I don't get it, just pick B then? Where's the catch?

>>55730998
the alien is literally magic, so yea

Oh now I understand and I think I even understand where the flaw in the riddle is. The implied assumption of the riddle is that there's a chance you're the 1 in a thousand people where this goes wrong. So I guess then it tries implying that because the 999 prior predictions have nothing to do with your own situation and prediction, it's 50/50 if it's right or wrong.
So there's 4 scenarios:
Pick 1000$ box -> alien was right, you get 1000$
Pick 1000$ box -> alien was wrong, you get 1000$ + 1,000,000$
Pick 1 million -> 0
Pick 1 million -> 1 million

If you compare each situation with each other you notice that the expected value is always higher with the open box, so you pick the open box, under the assumption that the predictions were random.

But I don't think that's a fair assumption. Statistically speaking, it would be correct to go with the closed box because the alien seems to be correct about its predictions and in that case, the expected value is much higher picking the million.

i dont take either because i have enough junk in my place and dont need extra boxes

>>55731365
based and box pulled fuck boxes

>>55731337
>it would be correct to go with the closed box because the alien seems to be correct about its predictions and in that case, the expected value is much higher picking the million.
Do you midwit fucks actually thing like this? The alien already made the decision. Which decision you make has absolutely zero causal relationship. If you don't take both boxes you are a fucking moron.

>>55731430
>confronted with a fortune telling alien who is never wrong
>but muh causality, muh science!!!!1

>>55731430
You have statistical evidence that the alien flipped a coin 999 times and predicted each coin flip correctly. This is enough statistical evidence to assume that there is a causal relationship, be it supernatural and not abiding by laws of time. So yeah, pick the million.

If you analyze it from a game theoretical point of view it even makes more sense that the alien would predict the million because everybody seems to have a tendency to pick it.

>>55731430
>>55731317
>the alien is literally magic, so yea
If we go by this, then whatever choice you make will be the one the alien predicted, and so you have to choose box B. But it's kinda dumb.

I think it's way more likely that everyone chose both boxes because it's the logical choice, rather than the alien being magic.

>>55731470
>You have statistical evidence that the alien flipped a coin 999 times and predicted each coin flip correctly.
It's not a coin flip. Humans chose both boxes every time, because that's the correct decision to make by human logic.

>>55731447
>>55731470
>>55731482
I can ask 999 people on the street if they want $1,000,000 and predict 100% of them will say yes. Even if there is only a slight chance one guy didn't say yes, that doesn't make me some mythical creature that can bend time.

>>55731498
being wrong exactly 0 times is a special number

>>55731482
>>55731497
This thread literally proves you wrong though. Many more people choose box b. That's what I meant by game theory. If we just all collude then we can all fuck over the alien. Kinda like a reversed prisoners paradox. Also then the question is just completely retarded and dishonest. Why would you employ a highly superior alien in the first place with statistical evidence that his claim is correct? Why not just ask the same question with a random human and a 50/50 track record before? Then your answer is obviously correct. Also who knows, maybe the alien is so superior that he can read brain frequencies from some insane distance, or they have a deterministic super computer. No need for magic, just science fiction in the frame of the question

>>55726978
Here's the outcome :

- you pick box B and get $1 million (you win, but where's the fun ?)
- you pick box B and get $0. (the alien will laugh at your greed)
- you pick both, get $1,000 and $0 (hey, at least you get a grand)
- you pick both and get $1,000 + $1,000,000 (do you believe 1 USDT will reach $1,000,000 one day ?)

$1,000 is just useless, you can get it by waging. It's better to get a chance to win $1,000,000 and change your life but I believe alien will use jedi tricks and you will be left with regret no matter the outcome.

>>55731430
Doesn't telling you his prediction change the outcome of your decision making? It's a dumb question with no actual answer, that's why it's gay and fraudulent.

>>55731547
so, magic

>>55731547
If a guy wins the lottery twice, would you bet $1000 that he does a third time? In essence you are assuming >1 / 999 people declined $1000. Yeah maybe its likely one would, but I wouldn't bet $1000 that the laws of causality are invalid if none did.

>>55731578
If it did why would that matter. He already decided to put the money in the box or not. Whatever decision you make then has no baring on whether the money is in there or not.

>>55731632
>Whatever decision you make then has no baring on whether the money is in there or not.
The argument is that he must be able to see the future, so whatever you decide is going to be whatever he predicted earlier.

>>55731632
Scenario 1:
>You decide to take both boxes.
>The alien knew you would do this, so the black box is empty.
>He tells you about his decision making powers. You decide to take the black box.
>You lose.

Scenario 2:
>You decide to take the black box.
>Alien tells you about his powers.
>You take both boxes because your decision is now changed.
>Black box is empty because the alien knew you would change your mind.
It's a fucking gypsy shell game, it's not a math problem. It's the Game Theory equivalent of asking someone when they stopped beating their wife.

>>55731731
wtf are you talking about. The question is whether you want 1 thing or the same thing and $1000 too. I'll take the thing and the extra $1000, thank you. The end.

>>55731632
For him to predict it 999 times correctly in a row has the likelihood of 1.8e-301. it's literally you saying that this is a random event. of course the chance of him having unknown super powers becomes plausible at that point. Winning the lottery is like 1 in 100,000,000 to a billion or something, depending on what lottery. This is more like winning 30 lotteries in a row and still saying it's just a random occurrence with no other causalities

>>55731760
The question is if you want
>$1000
>$1,000,000
>$1,001,000
If you pick choice 1, you get $1000.
If you pick choices 2 or 3 the alien gips you out of it with some overly convoluted hyperlogical Donkey space kikery.

>>55731760
I think your midwit mind is showing because you don't seem to understand hypotheticals and you cannot imagine someone thinking differently from you. And the reality is clear that many people think differently than you, so my assumption that people picked mostly at random and the alien still predicted it correctly every single time is statistical evidence for his prediction abilities.

>>55731796
No its not lol. The chance of asking 999 people if they want $1000, and having 0 say no, is pretty likely. We're not talking coin flips here.

>>55731828
>statistical evidence invalidating causality
retarded

>>55731843
lemao. do the math with 99.9% chance of a person saying yes 999 times.
ill wait

>>55731828
>>55731843
The only way to "defeat" the alien is to flip a coin or something and make your decision based on that, which would neutralize his ability to predict your decision since you'd be leaving it to random chance.

>>55731888
36.8%, More likely than flipping two coins and getting two heads. If someone flipped two coins and called two heads and got it would you thinks WOW THEY CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE HURRRR and then bet $1000 on them actually being able to?

>>55731883
>>55731843
What are you saying? It's clear that some people pick both and some pick box b. Unless you do a perfect poll let's just assume it's about 50/50. Under these circumstances, the statistical evidence is basically real evidence at this point. Any court of law would accept it as evidence, in fact it's even more likely than DNA test certainty. And nobody is saying that causality is being broken. As I said, maybe the alien has some super computer that he calculated the next 24h of the universe with. Maybe he has some distance mind reading abilities. Maybe he can teleport shit into the box with some crazy tech. Who knows? That's more likely based on the fact that you are literally dealing with a highly superior alien.

>>55726978
america was built on slavery

>>55731975
Because you are trying to use statistics to prove causality invalid, when if causality is invalid so is the statistical methods you are using. If the alien is able to make future predictions without paradoxes then this invalidates statistics.

>maybe the alien has some super computer that he calculated the next 24h of the universe with
The likely hood of the alien being able to know the amount of information relating to the the complete set of influences on your decisions, down to subatomic particles, within multiple light minutes of you (depending on how long between the alien's choice and your choice), is far less than flipping heads 999 times. That amount of information would far exceed the total amount of outcomes of flipping a coin 999 times.

If there is another way the alien is doing then, then you can't rely on statistics anyway, it may be more likely you're in a simulation or there are variable laws of mathematics / physics.

>>55731928
you just proved my point. neither is likely, but one has a 99.9% chance of being right while the other is 50/50

>>55732093
It doesn't matter if its more likely or not, it just has to be more likely than the chance that causality is invalid.

>>55732128
>he wouldnt bet on a 99.9% track record in case the 0.01% hes wrong
kys its the only way

>>55732172
Your decision happens after he decides, retard

>>55732335
so? hes a fucking genius who knows what you gonna do before you do.

Tell him OP is a fag

>>55730315
>yes you do, the image tells us.
Please quote where in the image it tells what the prediction was.

>>55727178
>but he could be lying!
it doesn't say that in the problem, you fucking midwit dumbass

>>55727719
How is it a paradox? There's four outcomes
>aylmao is wrong, you get $1001000
>aylmao is wrong, you get $0
>aylmao is right, you get $1000
>aylmao is right, you get $1000000
So it would only be right to pick both by ignoring the premise that it already knows your answer or isn't lying to you

If he knows which one I'd choose of my own will, then I can at least get 50/50 odds on him by taking it out of my own hands. I will flip a coin and choose based on that.

>>55732512
if he's lying, youre not getting $1000, youre getting an anal probe

>>55727130
fuck me, that went places i did not expect. i can't get enough of reading Langan's thoughts. i can't say i truly understand them, but they make a kind of sense that i can recognize but can't recreate. that very article discusses the strange human ability to know something we can't actually know.

>>55728254
Ping pong but only if the weight of the ball and string isn't negligible

>>55726978
A guaranteed $1000 is worth more than a 50% chance of going bust. Finance is about risk management.

>>55726978
even if he guesses wrong on his prediction for me his prediction accuracy is 999/1000. So I have a 99.9% chance he will predict accurately for me. In which case I am taking only the closed box. Since his prediction is 99.9% accurate, then I have a 99.9% chance he left the million dollars in

I take box A, easy money with no shenanigans
I wonder if it's taxable

I leave the game theory optimal play to autistics. I pick box B because I like the idea of a cool million. If I lose or win it's ok because easy come easy go. I also like the plain number of 1 million over 1 million plus a 'thousand dollar bill'

Im not sure why I'm being presented this option and I'm also highly scared in this imagined scenario

you guys need to watch this movie

>>55733109

>>55730515
>>55730626
>>55730998

This guy is right. The alien is just fucking with you, playing against your competitive instincts thinking you can "beat" him in order to choose the objectively worse choice.

The correct answer is do not communicate with demons or aliens.

>>55726978
Imagine you're the alien. The Interplanetary Fairness in Finances Act has forced you to offer compensation to the Earthgoys for centuries of slave labor/dumping of waste on their planet. You need to give them $1000, but they can "willingly" choose to accept an "alternative" compensation and give up the $1000.

You have two boxes in your space ship. Ah, here's an earthling now!

You know that earth people are naturally childish and petty, always looking to feel superior to whoever they're talking to. What do you say to him to accept the empty box instead of the $1000?

>>55733164
based

I take both because a thousand dollars is free money and it's better than not having any

>>55726978
I take box B. There's a million dollars in it because the alien knew I was going to do that. What's the conflict here? I don't even get it. Am I supposed to be sad that I don't have free will? Bitch I have a million dollars.

>>55729810
It's mathematically possible to be possessed. Not guaranteeing that happens but it's possible. The alien wins by possessing you.

>>55728026
2/3. Having picked the third box isn't the only possibility that gets ruled out by the assumptions in the setup - the possibility of picking box 2 and drawing silver first is also ruled out.
Gold ball in hand, you know that you've either:
>Picked box 1 and drawn the first ball,
>Picked box 1 and drawn the second ball, or,
>Picked box 2 and drawn the first ball
Two of those three scenarios are ones in which the other ball is gold.

Ok, assuming no communication with demons and that neither box is covered in microscopic terms and conditions that are agreed to by opening the box, why not take both boxes?
>Get $1,000
>Possibly get $1,000,000
>Get 2 free boxes

This is a retarded way to teach a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.

>>55726978
take the B box alone understanding its some kind of trick if I would take two I would definately only get the $1000 and $1000 is nothing to me. so i'll take B alone and a chance at $1M

I'm assuming the higher being with a 100% success rate so far has some method of time travel or seeing the future. So that means what I pick influences his prediction. Since I want him to predict that I will pick only b, I have to pick only b.

If this was a regular human I would obviously pick both boxes because it is either empty or has the million in it no matter what I do.

>>55726978
I flip a coin

>>55730704
>>55727050
Large bills existed before computers for banks to conduct large transactions.

>>55726978
The alien knows I'm a degen and $1k is not that much so I'm gonna gamba and see what's under box B, and it will be $1Mil.

>>55726978
Obvious answer is obvious. B.

>>55734311

Two alien boxes would probably sell for more than $1,000,000.

Easy. Since ET has magical powers and predicts right I choose to take only B. Since he is right in his prediction that I will take B i will get 1million dollars.
ty et

>>55734581
Alien's response: fuck, I thought you'd pick both

To the next guy: So I've been right 999/1000... yes 1 fucking retard actually picked B

>>55726978
>https://megasociety.org/noesis/44/newcomb.html
Box B, easy million.

>>55726978
Box b, without hesitation.

$1000 isn't a life-changing amount of money. If box b contained nothing, then my financial situation will ostensibly stay the same, thus the higher risk would be foregoing the possibility that $1 million is in the box.

If the calculus was $1,000,000 in box a and $100,000,000/nothing in box b, then this hypothetical would be more interesting.

TL;DR Fuck your $1,000 space nigger, let me see what's in the fucking box.

>>55726978
I'd only take B since it's stated in the OP he only leaves it empty if you take both. Duh nigga

but if he's been right 999 times in a row, it's because he's full of shit and there's no money in box b regardless, so it's really a choice between $1000 or nothing. I've revised my answer to box a since the alien is a lying nigger

>>55728254
Depends which string is longer and if the ping pong ball doesn't cave due to pressure.

>>55732400
you don't know WHAT he predicted (unless you are smart and think like i do), but you do know that he is making one. you have knowledge of the prediction.
>>55732335
he can see into the future. he isn't just making a bunch of guesses. it doesn't matter when the decision happens, because it doesn't in a way. people WILL do whatever they will do, which the alien always predicts correctly, because he is very clearly and demonstrably able to see the results beforehand

Just pick box B and sell the choice to a gambler. I'm sure someone will pay at least $250k-$500k to have a chance at 2x-4x their money.
I can also add a few conditions to it and televise the event and fill it with ads. Will make a decent amount off that too. Overall can exceed that $1 million and give the risk away to a gambler.
Risk free money is the best money

>>55734860
>hes lying
>therefore i still get $1000
slight flaw in your argument

>>55734003
Nah. It's predetermined that you pick a gold ball with 100% certainty. Picking a gold ball from box a and b is thus the same, aka 100%. That makes the odds 50/50

Take box B, either sell it for 500k to someone, or take out a loan on the box unopened, or start a side show attraction in a high traffic area and charge people to see unopened box.

If a banker, rehypothecate the unopened box multiple time at a valuation of 1 million and create derivative packages to sell to other banks using leverage, do this until the problem is so big central banks are forced to bail you out.

>>55734885
>you don't know WHAT he predicted (unless you are smart and think like i do), but you do know that he is making one. you have knowledge of the prediction.
useless knowledge of the fact he's making a prediction. his prediction could be either outcome, you have no control over that. the fact every retard here is so confident that taking the single box over both suggests even more strongly that the alien predicted you'd do that, so you get nothing.

>>55734897
So is the $1000 bill you can see with your own eyes monopoly money?

>>55726978
>A highly su[erior being from another planet of the galaxy..

That you problem right there numbnuts! if there are any other being from another planet in the galaxy, and that a big if. They are just as stupid as you are, which is petty fucking stupid!

>>55727160
What if the being made the wrong prediction? There's no claim that guarantees that. He has a perfect batting average with the previous 999 others but he might troll you this time.

>>55734893

>>55734940
hes a nigger lying ayy lmao. it could be fucking anything. it could bite your hand off then probe your rectum

>>55734978
It'd be even more valuable than $1000 in that case. You need to learn to hustle baby.

>>55734934
it is helpful to know that there is a prediction and that he will be correct about it.
if he predicted i'd take box b instead of both, i'd get a million, not nothing. that's my point. the problem boils down to "take both boxes for one thousand" OR " take just box b for one million." there are no other outcomes, and we can be as sure of this as we can that the alien always predicts correctly. maybe you just aren't as smart as you think you are.

>>55735107
the "metaphysics" angle is about as stupid as saying an improbably event, like being right a certain number of times, means we're in a simulation or boltzmann brain type universe where the laws of physics may as well just be changing continuously and the entire concept of whether its even preferable to having more or less money would be debatable.

You have to take the question at face value, arguing the laws of physicals is on the same level of arguing about the meaning of "right" is and whether it means correctness, morality, orientation, or just stupid answers like "I would shoot the alien and take the million."

For example, if a question said a fair coin was flipped 999 and it was heads every single time, what is the % chance that the next flip is heads. Its 50%, not "ACTUALLY, THAT PROVES THAT GOD EXISTS AND IS INFLUENCING THE COIN BLAH BLAH BLAH.

This question can be reduced to, you have two boxes, do you want 1 or both? The answer is both because you the decision has no causal relationship to anything else said.

>>55735651
The ayy knows that you're that kinda guy. He might even read this thread. He isn't gonna put the million under your box.
The ayy also knows that I'm built different and that I believe what that other anon said, so I'm going to get a million.

>>55735967
And you'd get the million whether you picked both too, the alien just would be wrong. I would never get the million, sure. In a game of giving millions to retards, I would lose.

>>55733882
lol. my exact thought... Hes always right... What else am i supposed to think? Nothing anymore cause i'm fucking rich biiitch.

>>55729810
okay, litttle tip, because this is what i do for papers i don't understand. CHATGPT, copy and paste a section, and tell it to explain it simply. BOOM, you're now a fucking 200IQ chad with the ability to define and summarize any number of complex theories.

anyone who doesn't immediately grasp that B is the only answer should be branded like cattle so i know when i'm interacting with a mental midget. actual fucking morons

>>55735651
numbnuts, the question is clearly a reframing of the observer effect in relation to quantum physics. what you are arguing is so stupid it's hard to believe.

you actually have to believe that the alien is lying or wrong about its ability to accurately predict your choice if you take both boxes. if you assume for the premises of the question that the alien isn't mistaken or cannot lie, for example, then your decision making process is retarded.

but if you don't take its words at face value then everything it's telling you could be suspect, maybe there is no money in either box or just a scrap of paper with the word NIGGER on it

>>55735651
You are literally a midwit. You are too stupid to understand but you still think you understand. That's why it's funny. The more you open your mouth the more you dig yourself into the midwit hole. Just admit that you aren't that intelligent and stop being such a faggot.

>>55736359
You observe box B whether you take B or both, retard. What you choose as no impact on the factors that lead to whether there is or is not $1mil in there. Has nothing to do with quantum mechanics. A superposition of box B is not dependent on your choice.

The question says the alien was right 999 times, not that the alien told you that, its assumed to be true. But that is far more likely to occur from a biased sampling of people rather than the alien having a method of violating causality. He may of just asked 999 super rational people or even asked this question on 4chan and then tracked users down having known how they said they'd answer. This is far more likely than a violation of causation.

>>55736462
>no argument
I'll take that as a concession that I'm right

>>55736486
>What you choose as no impact on the factors that lead to whether there is or is not $1mil in there.
"What you choose" is literally the entire premise and the sole determining factor of whether something is or isn't inside the box, you brain dead ESL curry poo man.

>>55736090
>In a game of giving millions to retards, I would lose.
That makes you the retard.

>>55727130
Take box b. Who gives a fuck about a grand when there’s a mil to hand?

>>55736598
Read the question again, retard. The alien puts the money in the box or not, before you choose. What you actually choose has absolutely no impact on that.

>>55736617
If someone gives $1mil to people with less than 80 IQ, who's the retard, the guy who got the money or the guy that didn't?

>>55726978
Its just English comprehension, you take box B. The fact it may be empty is the distraction

>>55728254
Ping Pong ball side tips the scale cuz that side is heavier. Steel Ball is only displacing the water in the beaker but not adding to its volume. Ping Pong Ball (plus the string) is adding volume to the overall contents of the beaker, making it heavier than the steel ball beaker since that one technically only contain water, thus making it heavier and tipping the scale.

Ok, I got this literally by just looking at at it, when XRP gonna go to $1000 like they promised?

CAPCHA: XR2 YTD Hmmmmm...

>>55730092
>>55732675
>>55734867
>>55737367
all wrong NGMI lol lmao

>>55728254
ping pong ball

both cups are at equal weight, but adding the ping poing ball makes the left side heavier. the steel ball is held in suspension in equilbrium. it is not contributing to the weight of the right side

>>55726978
Well he explained it to me so now I don't believe him and grab the 1 million dollar fake bill and burn it because it's not a crime to burn fake money

>>55737572
wrong wrong wrong!!!

>>55728254
Steel side because steel is heavier than plastic

>>55726978
Unironically cock those gains. 1 thousand dollar bills don't exist and aren't profitable anyway.
Most people won't ever be in this situation ever. And it's always better to gamble your tokens on something you at least have control over than something like this OP. The situation is riddled with contradictions.
Tl;Dr better chance on chikun lol

flip and coin and decide the outcome based on the results

that would ensure i have at least a 50% chance of getting 1mil, whereas if i choose myself i have a 0% chance

It literally says in the question that if you choose box b you get a million dollars and if you choose both boxes you get jack shit. What kind of fucking "paradox" is this?

>>55736639
You're not getting denied the million because you're smart. You're getting denied the million because you're greedy and cheeky and the ayylmao knows you're going to try to trick him.
It's not actually difficult - you're under scrutiny before the choosing. If you commit to going along with the deal and mean it you get a million. If you don't, you go fuck yourself.

>>55727340
>It makes sense to always pick both boxes
$1000 is nothing, not even a month of rent in most cases. it doesnt make any sense to bet against the 100% accuracy rate so far prediction.

>>55735014
>and we can be as sure of this as we can that the alien always predicts correctly
not exactly, but he's gotten 999 correct so far, so at worst you;re dealing with .1% odds he'd be wrong, which would be retarded to bet that he would be wrong this time

>>55737666
Ask the guy who is tossing out word salads about metaphysics and morality while trying to outsmart an imaginary alien on a Hungarian worm farming image board.

>>55727050
*moonwalks away from supreme being*

>>55727180
It would actually be a crime and the secret service would be all over their ass, in fact you'd be implicated for even having the counterfeit bill.

>>55726978
why the FUCK would I risk $1M for an extra $1,000? If his predictions are that good he would know I would never do that retarded shit

Guaranteed $1M all day

>>55726978
Both boxes. Supreme being can be smug all he wants, I still walk away with 1000 dollars

>>55738979
kek, didnt predict this could ya xeno?

>>55728254
if the pingpong ball is floating it's negative buoyancy so it's slightly reducing the weight felt by the scale
assuming both have exactly the same volume of water the steel one tips

>>55739063
wait buoyant not negative buoyancy
answer same just typed the wrong shit

>>55726978
Take box b am I also broke in this scenario??

>>55738872
yes, exactly. we can be exactly 99.9% sure that he always predicts correctly, and equally sure that there are no other outcomes.

>>55727259
this. my zoomer brain didn't make it past sentence 2

b

I take both boxes.
I sell the second box to a streamer who opens packs of cards on youtube for 1 million dollars, as he believes he could at least make some money from the publicity and views.
He makes a onions face thumbnail with an alien in it.

>>55737666
The kind you’re to stupid to understand.

>>55726978
Well obviously most human beings would take both boxes because guaranteed 1000 and possibly chance at million. given that the being most likely predicted we would take both boxes he left the closed box empty which means we should take the thousand so we dont walk away with nothing

>>55726978
I choose neither just to combo break

>>55726978
You take box B, what the fuck is this question. It should have been that if you pick both or B then the money is not inside. Then the optimal solution would be to flip a coin and let him read the result as your decision. It's no longer a human deciding.

>>55728026
2/3. Old bullshit.

>>55728254
Steel ball, but it has nothing to do with the material being steel. It could be anything denser than the ping pong ball and the scale would tip towards it.

>>55731337
This + something about conditional probability.
But I'd take B anyways. If this allmighty being wants to fuck exactly me, after giving a million to 999 other dudes, so be it.

>>55727289
>>55727349
Have you guys read crying of lot 49?

>>55726978
>alien can predict everything (or, at the very least, has an incredible track record)
>if he predicts you take box B, and you take it, you get a million dollars
>take box B
>he's (extremely probably) right
>get a million dollars
Am I misreading or misunderstanding something here? This seems incredibly straightforward.

Always astounding to see how retarded such a high percentage of the human population is.

It doesn't matter that the alien's decision has already been made, you hopeless midwits acting that you changing your mind after his prediction is made isn't included in his prediction need to seriously stop typing on the internet because it's embarrassing.

You take Box B everytime.

>>55726978
I'll just take the open box. He wouldn't see that one coming

>>55726978
I don't need charity.
Especially from some shitskin alien cunt.
Enjoy your first broken nose, E.T.

>>55727130
Langan is the king of pseuds. He claims to have a mathematical model of existence yet proved exactly nothing mathematically.

>>55737649
If he can predict the inner workings of your brain I'm pretty sure he could predict how you would toss a coin or the outcome of any other random event you would choose to observe. Taking both boxes is the only way to make any money from this.

>>55734812
this. idgaf about the $1,000

>>55726978
If you do a 360, and walk away from the boxes, then Jesus will give you eternal life.

>>55726978
So, there's only money on B if I only take B and the alien got it right, he claims to have gotten it right 99.9% of times.
I'll take B and call the alien a nigger if there's nothing on it.
Either way I win, I either got $1M or I got the rare chance of calling a superior alien being a nigger. I come out of the experience feeling fulfilled.

>>55738872
>>55739559
holy shit /biz/ is stupid. being right 999 doesn't mean you have a 99.9% chance of being right, what the fuck math is that lol? Its more like the alien simply rigged the game. He could have asked this question on 4chan, and then track down who answers and "predict" correctly. Or did this a bunch of times with slightly different variations until he got a good track recrod.

If I claim I can predict coin flips, and I call it right 999 times in a row. what is more likely, that I literally can see the future, or that the coin has two heads and the game is otherwise rigged?

>>55740265
Except the alien can be wrong, retard. He can predict you can change your mind, doesn't mean he'd be right. But in order to get to 999 times right he's probably asking dipshits like you who he'd know will pick B, or super rational people who he'd know will pick both. If the alien is asking someone who truly is on the fence then the alien fucked up, its like me flipping the double headed coin and switching to flipping a normal coin. I would only have a 50% chance of being right despite having been correct 999 times in a row.

>>55740849
Kill yourself subhuman retard

>>55740849
>But in order to get to 999 times right he's probably asking dipshits like you who he'd know will pick B, or super rational people who he'd know will pick both
well you answered it, he is smart and you are a predictable dimwit

>>55740978
Yes I'm predictable b/c I'm not retarded and know the money is either in there or not and I get it whether I pick B or both, so I pick both and get the $100. The alien would never put $1mil in there for me, because I'd pick both, get the million, and he'd be wrong. I'm an easy +1 for his record there. Its pretty much proof that it wouldn't be that hard for the alien to get 999 times right if he just asked people like me. This is far more likely then the alien have some time travel ability and basing his decision on something in the future.

>>55741025
You're deciding whether or not the money will be there before it gets there and you're doing so by deciding what kind of person you'll be - and whether you'll stick to it - before you get there. You can choose to make the million dollars appear or not, but you do so across time and you have to be genuinely committed to it.
Real life works the same way and you're ngmi until you realize that.

>>55741826
I'm not deciding whether the money is in there, the alien does. I can only impact what the alien chooses before the alien puts the money in there, but the question is posed after than point so my decisions from that point forward have zero impact on whether the money is there or not. btw I already made it from crypto, by investing in things I understand and with calculated risks, not by buying lottery tickets, praying to god that I deserve it, or kissing a rabbit's foot or w/e BS superstitious retardation that makes you believe that if you only believe enough and are genuine or committed enough you can change the past. WTF are you smoking lol?

>>55728254
It will tip to the right if the buoyancy of the steel ball is more than the weight of the ping pong ball. Which it is.

>>55738872
You're dealing with 0.5^1000 odds that he's wrong. It is so infinitesimally small that it takes a 120IQ midwit faggot to think that it's still a matter of chance.

>>55739063
You got the right answer in the wrong way.

>>55726978
the correct answer is both. what a ridiculous question, you obviously have no influence over whether the money is in B, so it does not matter that you get both.

>>55741978
>believe me i already made it by being smart and playing the odds irl
>but a hypothetical genius alien who can play the odds on a superhuman level is not to be believed

>>55742970
Except everyone who picks B gets $1 million and everyone who picks both gets $1,000,000 and midwit faggots like yourself still think there's no way that something deeper could be at play.

This is why you always lose at the game of life. You're so superficial and thick that you still don't get it even after being proven wrong time and time again.

>>55742740
>>55743097
Its not 0.5 per call, retards. see >>55740849, its far more likely the alien's track record is from a bias sampling than from them being able to violate causality.

>>55743152
nope, you're a gullible idiot for taking the alien at his word, go join a cult or pray to god to win the lottery or something retarded like that.

>>55743183
>The future can't cause the past, silly. It just can't because I said so! Take both boxes! There is nothing in Box B because there wasn't when I took both and I can't be wrong!!!

>>55743183
>nope, you're a gullible idiot for taking the alien at his word
The wording of the scenario presented in OP is bad. In the original presentation of the paradox, the alien actually has confirmed perfect predictive powers.

>>55743183
people are evenly split on the answer, not in this thread but in general

>>55743183
>I was the smartest kid in 2nd grade and I had a 3.8 GPA in high school so I'm the smartest person in the world!!! Reality has to work the way I think it does!!!

>>55743234
No he doesn't, he CLAIMS to be able to predict, that information is near worthless, only his track record of 999 correct answers is a given, in which case the far more likely cause is that he rigged the sampling like I said, not that he can violate causality.

>>55743221
>>55743249
You are probably so gullible anyone can easily fool you with rigged statistics and make you believe they are some sort of genius. Like I flipped a coin in front of you and got 999 heads you would probably worship me as a god even though I just had a doubled headed coin lol

>>55743277
>he CLAIMS to be able to predict, that information is near worthless
I agree, which is why I am saying the wording in the OP is bad and misrepresentative of the actual scenario. The image in the OP is based off of an old thought experiment called "Newcomb's paradox"; pic related is the beginning of the original presentation of that paradox. There is no reason to doubt the alien's predictive power in the original/actual scenario.

>do you take the ayy at his word or not
nice datamining post i guess

>>55743277
He didn't violate causality. He's a demon. You're just too thick to understand how causality works.

>>55743277
im surprised you havent said you dont believe in aliens, therefore he isnt real

>>55743397
OHHH, i get it know, hes a DEMON! Wow that is some big brain shit thanks for explaining.

>>55743430
There is no point in explaining anything to you. You're a know-it-all faggot who is completely close-minded to anything that makes you think about reality in a way that challenges the biases you developed as a 12 year old.

>>55726978
If the being is so superior that he came to me already with his box planned and tells me he knows what I'll take, then I have to assume that this being is here not out of benevolence but in a truly godlike way of screwing with me.

So, I tell the being that I don't care what he knows nor do I care about his powers. The being is here to offer me the illusion of certainty. I will choose the box B exclusively because I trick myself into thinking that that was what I was going to do in the first place.

Nay. I operate on the normal basis, and select both boxes.

>>55743353
yeah that wording is much more vague and debatable. "Almost certain" is a lot stronger than being right 999 times.

>>55727130
one of the all time biggest pseuds

>>55743728
It's amazing. No matter how many times you have been proven wrong and someone else is incontrovertibly smarter than you, you STILL think you are smarter than the genius.

Having a 120-140 IQ is a fucking mental illness

>>55743762
>Newcomb's, Demon - call him ND for short - is a paragon of intelligence, a genius's genius whose acuity transcends the temporal boundaries of merely ephemeral human beings.
If you're saying the guy is literally a fucking time traveler than yeah, pick b, but that's a completely different question. Its a simple circular dependency. The "demon" is making his prediction based on what you will pick, which is based on what he picks. So pick B. Its like going back in time and fucking your mom to become your own dad. But affirming he can "transcend temporal boundaries" is completely different thing than saying "he was right 999 times!!!!1"

>>55743807
>I lack the ability to think abstractly enough to understand how retrocausality allows a paranormal event like Newcomb's demon to occur so I just make shit up

>>55743840
You're the one who made that up, because its different from OP's question which is basically some unbelievable track record is presented, and its far more likely its form some sort of rigged game than it is from time travel, retard. If you say the guy 100% confirmed can time travel that's different, you made that up or are thinking of a completely different scenario.

>>55743762
>supposed genius
>literally worked as a bouncer
you're a sucker

>>55743869
Retrocausation is not time travel brainlet

>>55743993
Wow you're stupid. My nuts aren't time travel either. You can't use "retrocausation" to send information back in time, you need time travel.

>>55743277
the 999 in a row is a 1/1000 chance you get it right just like 1k is 1/1000th of 1M, to make the risk/reward seem equivalent

>>55744152
Midwits seriously need to put in camps. Holy shit they are unbearable.

>>55744289
lol no, 999 times does not mean 1/1000 why do retards think this? The only thing 999 means is most likely the alien only asked people he was sure he'd knew how they answer >>55740849

I think it's a litmus test for how broke the respondent is. Broke people will choose the sure $1k. People that have that much money already will choose the $1mil.

>>55744337
I didn't say it did but the dollar amounts and the times he's been correct aren't a coincidence, the question uses those values for the purpose I stated

>>55744337
The alien is never wrong! What don't you get?

>>55744337
You are so profoundly retarded that you don't even understand the problem after people have been beating you over the head for days now. Good God...

>>55744337
You're literally worse than Cardano holders

And that's saying a lot

>>55727082
nah, just X

>>55743869
Langan's post is all about how it actually IS a rigged game. he's saying the player is like a computer and ND is the programmer. the computer is unable to comprehend the tools at the programmer's disposal to get it to do what he wants, and the demon possesses analogous powers over our illusion of choice. i can't vouch for the math because he uses operators that I literally have never seen in my life, but his conclusion is also to choose box b, which I think is also your conclusion? idk, i haven't read more than a couple of your posts, i start to fall asleep if i try. i read all of langan's essay on the matter, though, and ignoring the math I found his reasoning more compelling than what i've seen of yours.

>>55744510
Based Twitter lover

>>55744520
allow me to clarify a bit: langan is asserting that he has discovered a logically consistent way to prove that our "free will" can theoretically be manipulated by a being with sufficient powers of control over the variables that go into our decision making process. he basically concludes that because ND was correct 999 straight times, it's extremely unlikely that he just got lucky and that he does, in fact, possess some modicum of control over those aforementioned variables, explaining his success rate. whether his math actually proves that or not, i cannot say. but the english portion of his argument i have to agree with -- it seems this demon possesses powers of observation that we cannot comprehend, and therefore resistance is futile. simply pick box b, assuming he knew you'd pick it anyway.

>>55744401
>>55744418
The OP's question never says that. You are confusing it for your retarded time traveling demon shit you read on that other site.

>>55744520
Yes, in the demon bullshit case I would say B because the demon's choice is literally dependent on my future choice because its 100% states the demon transcends time. Completely different than OP's question. The demon thing isn't even interesting. I pick B, which means the demon puts the $1 mil in there and i get it. Wow... so interesting... not.

The question is only interesting if there is some ambiguity to the
alien's prediction abilities that is on the level of your assumption that the laws of causality are true. Being able to present me a track record of 999 wins isn't convincing enough to make me question the laws of nature, it makes me think they rigged it. But telling me the they are a time traveling demon as a given, then entire paradox is broken.

this is a much better wording >>55743353

>>55744609
ignore the time thing in langan's essay, dude. it's a literary device to get you to understand ND is beyond our comprehension. langan's not actually saying he's time travelling -- or maybe he is, i can't follow his formal logic -- he's simply asserting that ND clearly has powers we don't/can't understand that allows him to uncannily predict human behavior.

i don't think there is any ambiguity to ND's ability to predict our choices. if it were real, it would blow the concept of free will out of the water. but since it isn't, it's still just up for debate.

>>55739639
>to stupid

the alien clearly has a very good prediction model so I pick the one million in the box

>>55744996
That a boy

>>55744699
not really interesting because 100% prediction, 1 is impossible under current understanding of physics, so you may as well say we're in the matrix or something, and 2 doesn't mean you have any control over some process, only that you can predict it. The demon has control only because he has a shitload of money to pay people, otherwise the player is choosing, whether through free will or because of some deterministic process, it doesn't matter.

>>55728254
this is supposed to be a trick question right? assuming both balls displace the same water and the strings negligible, the assumption is supposed to be there is an identical weight between them