/biz/ - Business & Finance

nobody has a fucking clue what's going on with anything any more

It's nowhere in sight. The consumer is strong. And that's a bad thing

>>55470030
we're proud of you, Op

Whether or not we are in a recession depends entirely on whether you sold or bought or not.
Well op? Have you sold or bought?

>>55470030
It’s been like 2 weeks since people started talking about recession just give it time impatient little zoomer

it's because nothing broke yet

>>55470030
Too many conflicting messages. I don't think anyone knows what's going on.

All I know is that I'm saving in silver.

>>55470030
Nah lmfao
We, Vita Inu enjoyers are literally making it this month

>>55470030
we're technically in a recession already. some people say we aren't. those who say we aren't, is because people are generally still working and making money. In the next couple of months though, 1. 13% of the USA will have to make student loan payments again in October. 2. people's savings accumulated over the past few years are going to dry up even further.

I think we will see lots of people default or fall behind on various loans, e.g. cars, houses, personal loans, CC debt, buy-now-pay-later plans, etc. in the next several months or even 1 year. That will be bad for the economy since people will then put off purchases as long as possible and buy things for as cheap as possible. And not only that, but also those businesses that did lend money like this are going to have trouble getting paid back.

>>55470030
>>55470041
The "US Consumer" is dealing with higher prices and is running out of cash and available credit. Credit card debt is at a record high right now. This recession is the most anticipated recession in history. I've been waiting for it since 2019. Something happened then, in September 2019, where a fuck-ton of money was quietly issued to top banks and nobody reported on it in financial media but we know from Canadian M0, US Fed M1(discontinued in early 2020) and M2. Retired financial reporters have said that they are not at liberty to discuss it and active reporters refuse to discuss or respond to it. Coronavirus may have been released as a political cover to explain the financial hiccups in the system. We simply have no way of knowing for sure but according to a recent Wealthion video I watched on YouTube we are looking at a large slow-moving recession that started in 2019 and concludes after about four years. We are looking at the 4th and final stage being the 2nd half of 2023, comprising high unemployment and panic in the markets. Some other commentators have said that we will be out of the worst patch by early summer of 2014. The decline in the stock market is anticipated to be at least -20% with a high end of -95% at the height of the panic. Also mentioned is that recovery to ore-panic valuation may take up to a decade. Now is the time to position your portfolio for maximum safety.

Until the average company has to refinance at current rates we won't see the effect of the rate hikes in the broader economy. Everyone can see that it will probably be bad but can only guess as to how bad. In the mean time people are psychologically flip flopping because stocks dump and have bear market rallys where everyone is fluctuating between "it's over recession is imminent" and "were back kek bear tards two more weeks"

>>55470030
muh interest rates going up was too obvious, so we'll pump

>>55470288
Checked, anecdotal evidence: car mechanic shops are heavily booked in my area, supposedly because people can't afford to trade-in and buy new so more people than ever are using their local fix-it garage shops.

>>55470324
The chart looks like the nose of a merchant.rrwx

>>55470324
Inflation is back to normal, my man.

>>55470355
oh FUCK checked. my anecdotal evidence is personal experience save for the student loans and most debt

Biden canceled recession like he canceled Trump. Hahaha Republicans can't stop losing. You're next chuds enjoy prison

>>55470373
Buddy, we bailed out the banks in 2019 with $4.5 trillion which is over 5x more than the $700 billion we used in 2018. Look up the Q4 2019 Repo Program.
Normal?
Inflation? Since January 2020, the United States has printed almost 80% percent of all U.S. dollars
and we still got it.

>>55470415
The inflation rate is back down to the 100 year average. All of that extra money is out of circulation now. Sorry you didn't get your le epic depression. Capitalism won.

Apparently the job market is total fucking garbage. No idea if that's a recession indicator or not. But if people can't get afford a roof over their heads or reliable transportation, I don't know what's going to happen.

>>55470499
The unemployment rate is under 4 percent, and the participation rate is 83. This is all normal.

>>55470030
everyone is throwing in the towel on their recession bets because everyone came into the year positioned bearish as fuck and have been btfo. Professionals need to chase performance now to save their year so everyone is scrambling. The best part is that people are giving up on the recession trade at exactly the time you want to be putting it on. Shit takes fucking time to play out.

>>55470030

Patience.

>>55470528
Stop being anti-American, at least for one fucking day. Pick yourself up by your bootstraps, and get to work, you fucking pathetic doomer stuck in adolescence faggot. America is still the best.

>>55470288
>13% of the USA will have to make student loan payments again in October. 2
bullish. finally the banking crisis will end

>>55470528
yep, this is real schizoposter hours

>>55470540
America is still the tallest midget, everywhere else is fucked too

>>55470563
I guess everywhere else, should have followed America's suit on how to deal with the covid shut down.

>>55470030
Went out to an expensive restaurant on a Tuesday night. The place was completely packed. Everyone buying steak, oysters, wine, etc.

The recession is a psyop.

>>55470030
we were never in recession, it was all a big lie for the really persistent to take advantage of the pump, I came here 3 years ago and never left, now I even have nfts from OBAYC that I don't even know where I got it from

>>55470030
What are those things that cops put on your wheels when you don't pay tickets? I'm seeing tons of those, so ya it's a recession alright.

>>55470030
I'm already seeing signs of it.
>hear ppl in grocery store discussing budget and whether they can afford food item or not
>see ppl in grocery store writing prices down
>made small talk with walmart theft prevention boomer and he told me ppl often get caught stealing meat or food
>increase advertisements for loans
>some places inventory online doesn't match what's in store so I assume ppl must be stealing them
>also see obvious shop lifters walking around with no items in hand and leave whenever I go grocery shopping

>>55471522
>increase advertisements for loans
i've seen ads for donating plasma on gas station pumps. it's that bad.

>>55471450
>>55471522
>>55471527
It must suck, being a Europoor.

>>55470030
>Everyone forget about it already
Everyone I know won't shut up about how prices have gone up on everything, what is this retarded bot OP on about?

>>55471522
>>55471527
these are one offs and not part of the bigger picture
>>55470324
had me up until you mentioned wealthion
>>55470288
>>55470355 (checked)
>>55470528
No one has mentioned that we are not in a recession, but in a stagflationary environment:

Signs of stagflation:
>GDP is sluggish
>Economic growth overall does not go up nor does it go down
>High inflation
>Business profitability declines
>Wage's don't match inflation
>People aren't spending
>Policy changes are harder to make work because raising rates or cutting rates affects everything differently than before

A recession has all of theses but it comes with deflation and weak demand. If there's high inflation, strong demand and "supply chain issues" seems to me that this is stagflation.

>>55471603
Almost none of that is true.

>>55470172
Except for those 3 banks that went under

>>55470030
>>55470036
>>55470041
>>55470118
>>55470126
>>55470130
>>55470172
>>55470183
>>55470243
>>55470288
>>55470324
>>55470335

We are currently in a "Dead Cat Bounce"

(Google it)

Yes we are in a recession, bitcoin will go to sub $1k

>>55471895
You mean, more Chinese industrial sabotage.

>>55470030
priced in then never showed up

>>55472079
>>55471650
>>55471572
Kill niggers and spics and then the US will be back baby

>>55472379
You forgot the jews.

>>55470489
>The inflation rate is back down to the 100 year average.
unless inflation goes into defaltion then prices will still be high and all it means is the prices aren't going as fast as before. The fundamentals haven't changed. people are still be poorer and using their savings to pay for bills, etc

>>55470030
bro are you blind? everythings double the price of what it used to be two years ago. maybe stop fucking dead chickens? retard

>>55470030
COVID gibs induced savings have been exhausted. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/accumulated-savings-during-the-pandemic-an-international-comparison-with-historical-perspective-20230623.html

job board postings are down or are inundated with fake jobs. monthly job add propaganda are temp job or gig economy nonsense.

manufacturing indices are down. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-sector-contracts-sixth-straight-month-april-ism-2023-05-01/

we're at 9/11 "don't leave the building goy, the safest place to be is INSIDE the building" levels of delusion.

>>55472398
Why do you think that is? You actually need them.

>>55470030
They won't say it's a recession until Biden loses the election next year.

>>55473473
For what?

>>55471906
>6 month long dead cat bounce

I see the signs. Last year people were job hopping every few months if they didn't like their employer. Now I see so many people not being able to get any work. Submitting applications to everything and getting to response. The small biz I manage has seen a nosedive in revenue. I don't think student loans in the US are going to help the normie retail economy recover. Unironically two more weeks.

>>55473473
>>55473504
Put them in a closed room and turn em into human calculators.

>>55470030
From what i gathered, we already saw the worst effects of a recession, but the government never said it out loud. And the smart money front runs every news by several months. And this series of events wasn't as terrible as previous recessions. And it didn't really scare anybody.

>>55470036
Feels good man.

>>55473554
>>55475229


yield curve is still inverting, so a massive recession is coming, simple as

>>55472784
No one told you or millions others to be doomers sitting on your fatass waiting for the world to collapse, because you don't like the little letter next to the president's name. In other words: get a fucking job. I just heard someone complain about utilities continually going up, and his income staying the same; the mother fucker doesn't even work 2 hours a day. Stop complaining you dumb republicuck, and work a measly 20 hours a week, if you're so fucking desperately in need of money, cause you'll get no tears from me, junior.

>>55470324
It's not a mystery what happened in Sept 2019 you dumbfuck, the fed tried to raise rates, the overnight lending market seized because the banks were drunk on cheap credit, and the fed pussied out and supported them. Not this time, we've got three failed banks to prove it

>>55470030
>Aren't we supposed to be in a recession? Was it all fake? Everyone forget about it already
Govts the world over doubled the money supply (or more). Recession fearmongering was an excuse for many to fire excess headcount and avoid any tough conversations about scaling employee pay to par with inflation.

>>55470415
Money printer doesn’t matter anymore buddy. R star is around 1% in the US. As the boomers die off and nobody has kids then we’ll head to negative interest rates like in Japan