/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54674914
Listen kid, I'm not selling for less than a million.
I know what I got.

DR Horton stocked up like 7%. Interests rates have already topped and home prices have already bottomed. You're too late.

>>54674914
You faggots have been telling me not to buy since 2017 because the crash was only 2 weeks away. Bought in before covid as soon as I got 3% APR. Not selling, not paying rising rent. Seethe.

>>54674914
Uh huh, 2 more weeks.

>>54675582
>$240k
poor """people"""

>>54675654
Post your house.

>>54674914
Down 1% YoY. Up 3.4% MoM. With interest near double what it used to be last year.

>>54675582
Fellow rust belt chad? I could buy a house here in cash, but that's not worth tying up so much of my capital I think

>>54675565
We didnt tell you to pay rent in the meantime, we told you to find a zero cost housing solution and wait for a favorable assets to real estate curve

>>54674914
Imagine living in that shithole

CAPTCHA: SSYP0D

>>54674914
the housing market is more fucked than most people realize, it's actually worse than the mid-2000's in many ways, at least from the perspective of the typical person
something like 95-99% of home "owners" with a mortgage have a rate lower than what they can get right now
this means that if they sell their house with a 3-4% mortgage rate, they're moving into a house with a mortgage rate that's double
so there's very little incentive to sell, even if they have home equity from the run up

the incentives are simple, and the math is simple
home volumes will continue to drop
home prices will continue to drop
other home costs (property taxes, insurance, hoa fees, maintenance costs, etc.) are all going up
even if the fed starts to cut rates tomorrow, i think housing falls 20-25% from here
if the fed keeps doing these quarter point hikes or pauses and stays at these levels, we could see a 40% drop

remember, it's not just the cost of the house, it's the cost of everything in a persons budget, regardless of whether it's related to the house (like taxes, insurance, etc.) or not (food prices, etc.)

>>54676280
There is no chance the fed keeps the rates here this year
The debt ceiling clownshow will result in printer go brrr again, just look at the receipts thanks to powell the us gov is running a 50-60% budget deficit, thats greece at its worst tier
So that leaves you with an interesting situation, regular people are priced out of homebuying, but the big boys can swoop in with zero cost printed monies to buy it all up soon, so you might not see a drop in what would he the max pain situation

>>54674914
>asset price crashes
>debt value stays the same
>mortgage literally means death pledge

Thanks for playing kid, now pay up

>>54676280
My friend bought a $400k house in Texas and his property tax is as much as my rent jej

>>54676280
>something like 95-99% of home "owners" with a mortgage have a rate lower than what they can get right now
You know fixed term is usually only like 5-10 years in most places and pretty much everyone except smart people who bought the lowest of low rates have variable rates? Theoretically if rates went up to 10-20% a lot of people could be forced to sell whether they want to or not, but most likely this won't happen and it's a poorfags dream scenario that they'll finally afford to buy, but they won't.

>>54676332
the fed/banks don't care about accumulating homes, but i believe they do care about getting people out of 3-4% mortgages when inflation is and will stay much higher than that
higher rates leading to job losses, combined with higher home ownership costs, are two big factors that will contribute to this

>>54676393
not in the u.s., which is the only market i'm talking about
but yes, places like canada are fucked even worse

>>54674914
>tfw low fixed monthly payment at 2.4% interest
Not my problem rentcuck. Cope harder.

>>54676086
>we told you to stick a thumb in your ass and get priced out sitting on the sidelines with the rest of us
Stay poor rentcuck.

>>54676332
>>54676335
>>54676280
*AHEM*
STAY SEETHING RENTOIDS
YOU WILL ALWAYS BE PRICED OUT

>>54676482
i'm not suggesting renting
i'm suggesting the only dwellers (of any residence) in a good position are home owners with a low mortgage rate and no intention of moving anytime soon, like at least 10 years
house prices will come down, but i don't think monthly payments will come down nearly as much, which is why it's the 3% rate that has value, not the house

>>54676280
>>54676332
Currently looking to buy in Southern California (yes i know cali sucks. but work is here)
When do you suggest waiting til buying? Been to a few open houses in the past month and its mostly dogshit. And by that I mean one of the houses actually had dogshit in the hallway while giving an open house. Motherfuckers were asking 700k for a 800 square ft. shack with dogshit in it.

>>54676581
i think the only home buyers who will do well this decade are ones prepared to pay cash (and bypass a mortgage) in the event of rates going north of 10%
not assigning a probability to this happening, simply stating that cash buyers will find good deals in that situation

but for the here and now, it depends on your financial situation, family situation, and space requirements
if you're single and making less than 250k in socal, i wouldn't rule out a roommate to built a large amount of savings as quickly as possible

>>54676332

>money printer go brrrrrr
>hyperinflation
>failed state status
>balkanization of america

I wish a nigga would.

The amount of coping I see in these thread confirms how 2008. Niggas really do bend reality in their minds to deny what is actually happening.

Housing is on a record downturn. The economy is shitting the bed. It's really joever and you niggas are still checking your zestimate every day.

>>54676770
So are you saying it will soon be a good time to buy a house?

>>54676650
Paying cash would be the optimal choice no matter the situation, but I'm... just a guy.
Right now trying to figure out when would be the best time to get a home rather than settle for the comically overpriced dogshit that's available currently

>>54676444
>>54676451
>>54676482
holy shit you are afraid

>>54676787
>So are you saying it will soon be a good time to buy a house?

Takes in average 5 years for the housing market to bottom AFTER rate cuts start

>>54676812
well fuck. there's no way i can wait that long. Currently in volatile rental situation. Gotta find something in the next few months. Hoping there was going to be some happening that put more houses on the market in the next few weeks... i mean there has to be something :)

>>54676787
no, when rates were 3% or even less, paying cash was a bad decision, at least relative other places you could park your money
how long it takes for housing to bottom is hard to say, but historical evidence suggests it's years away
but, the big difference with the housing bubble of the mid-2000's is that in 2008, all the costs surrounding home ownership (and just in general) came down for a while
we'll have a crash, but the costs surrounding home ownership will continue to rise

>>54675506
>Interests rates have already topped and home prices have already bottomed

lol. he doesn't know.

>summer time coming

>hey goys interest rates are coming down

>poirfect time to sell and lock in a great new low rate

The real crash is coming for the election in 2024, retards. The plan is so obvious that they trumpet it on Bloomberg Radio all day. Gotta announce those evil plans so God doesn't get mad and smite (((them))). Dems are ready to destroy America. They know this is their last chance.

>>54676826
That's not going to happen. Sellers will hold out for as long as possible and the house is the absolute last sacrifice they'll make (or the bank will make it for them).

The name of the game now is patience. People who bought the top will get rekt but many who buy too early will also get rekt.

>>54674914
>clock out of work
>browse /biz/
>RE doomers on the front page
>oh boy maybe now I can buy a home in my target neighborhood!
>check on redfin
>inventory is down and prices are up
anon pls

>>54676874
When exactly would you say the absolute top was/is/will be?
I need to find a home but I also want to buy as far from the top as possible lol

>>54674914
housing is getting cheaper huh?

>>54676898
top already passed nigger are you blind? look around you homes are sitting at unrealistic prices (that means a correction is here)

>>54674914
Good thing I don't live in March.

>>54676898
Top already happened

Bottom will be around 2026, maybe later if this is a real depression

>>54676912

>>54676898

The top was June 2022. This is the case shiller index that measures the relation between home prices and housing prices. Remember that a house is considered affordable when it is two to four times yearly income.

As you can see in this housing bubble housing was eight to nine times income. What does that mean? Lots of people that are house poor that are just getting eaten up by inflation.

>>54676770
Houses are still going up doe

>>54676939

>>54676966
Ah! Thank you, this is helpful info

>>54676966

Continuing with the data. Household debt is spiking.

>>54676986

Forgot the picture. Debt is going up as we go into layoffs and recessions. These aren't people with money in their pocket buying luxury items these are people using credit cards to buy groceries and pay bills.

They have entered the bankruptcy spiral that can take a year or two to play out.

>>54676991

People can't make their car payments. So the order that they do it is:

>max out credit card
>stop paying auto loans
>stop paying mortgage

The house is the last to go because hoomers don't give up the houses easily.

But all the data is there.

>>54677005
don’t forget most home owners are dying age boomers.

>>54677005

So why hasn't housing crashed? There's low inventory. As other anons have pointed out no one is going to leave a 2% rate to go to a 7% rate unless they absolutely have to. If they broke even on the sale they would still have double the payment they had before.

When will there be inventory? When all the people that can't make their payments start defaulting. Another place to look is the ibuyers that re looking at bankruptcy in a dead/declining market for the foreseeable future.

So the "optimum" time to buy will be in a year or two when the house poor start tapping out and the ibuyers close up shop.

>>54677024
it will be even better time to buy in 15 years when all the boomers are dead lol

>>54676581
Simply dont
California is not a long term play, its in final stages of socialism or better known as running out of other peoples money to spend
Keep track of the smartest companies already leaving
And that is excluding the whole water disaster that is happening there

>daily HOOMER cope thread

You’re paying a mortgage for 20 years. I’m in Thailand paying a 20 year old ladyboy to suck my cock

We’re not the same

>>54677056
You’re a faggot and you have AIDS

>>54677100
Neither but keep coping, virgin faggot

Verification not required.

>>54674914
Don't lose hope I believe in you t.spic

>>54677115
>h..hey guys
>i pay men to suck my peepee
>s..stop coping faggot virgin

lol. anon, you're still a virgin if you pay men to put your penis in their mouth. Nothing you say or do will ever change that fact. You're literally a faggot.

>>54677115
Reminder that “sex” is when a man puts his penis in a woman’s vagina.

>>54677148
>>54677155
>I get to COOM balls deep inside cute Thai chicks daily
>can literally do whatever I want at a moments notice
>backpacking in Vietnam next month

mortgoys SEETHING

>>54677048
Not disagreeing with you but I gotta stay in cali. i know it sucks but that's what's in the cards right now. Buying a home in southern california......
fuck man, give me some ACTUAL HOPE

>>54677191
>mortgoys

fucking kek

>>54677191
>>I get to COOM balls deep inside cute Thai chicks daily
>>can literally do whatever I want at a moments notice
>>backpacking in Vietnam next month
>mortgoys SEETHING

>>54677048
>other peoples money
Weird considering Californias GDP is higher than most European countries alone, and we pay for all the shit in your bumfuck flyover red states

>>54677191
>mortgoys

Lmao zestimate Stacies on suicide watch

>>54677224
I didnt say leave if the getting is still good, i said dont tie your life for the next 20 years to that place, cause yes you can get trapped in a mortgage if the market turns against you
There are moments where renting is really the best choice, having a job in socal is without question one of those
For who thinks that things will go rosy there for the next 2 decades

>>54677224
lol at this dumb coastie slave. doesn't even realize how good life can be.

>>54676482
You will never be a landlord.

>>54677251
Where do you get most of your water from? Where do you get most of your oil?

>>54677251
Most european countries are the size of Delaware, because quality > quantity. Don't be a retard and stop using bullshit arguments.
Actually, stop talking about Europe alltogether, you mutts never get it right.

>>54676581
I've been looking to buy a house in LA for a year now and even though prices have dropped it's still way overpriced. My budget is 890k in cash but I'm not going to get my money's worth if I buy now. Prices have to go down another 100k so I don't feel like I got ripped off.

It's still a sellers market but I've seen some houses sell for asking or below asking price in the past few months. A lot more price cuts too but it just went from super overpriced to just overpriced. It's been slowing down but there's still strong competition for decent houses. I lost on a house yesterday because someone offered 80k above asking price lol.

>>54675428
The day of the fluffy pillows is nigh

>>54677056
Huh? I'm not paying my mortgage, someone else is. Other people pay the mortgage of both the apartment they live in and my own house.

Is this really the power of /biz/? Can't even net green digits on their bank account without moving to a third world country?

>>54676332
>There is no chance the fed keeps the rates here this year
oh boy you're in for a ride

>>54676518
Can't people w/ shit rates refi down to 3%, defeating you?

TO THE MOON !!!

>>54677924
You're gonna find a better one, anon. Cheers to your journey and I hope you end up with the best fucking house you can find in LA.
God bless you dude

>>54677323
lol i'm not even gonna argue how dumb it is to stay here. here's a fuck you but also a hearty kek

>>54674914
I fucking hope a nuclear world war happens and fiat-backed real estate hard plunges to zero.

>>54674914
Those aren't houses. Those a spaces in a building.

>>54674914
>biden just past a law that charges people with good credit (white people and asians) $40 a month to subsidize people with bad credit (blacks and hispanics) to subsidize their ability to pay for a mortgage since its "unfair" because bad credit is racist
why would I ever fucking buy a home again

>>54676581
All the dumb mexicans making 30k a year cleaning toliets can live there. Figure it out. Move into a bean infested area, buy a cheap house and begin the gentrification with your white presence. The houses are only expensive because of white flight and whites competing with each other for houses in the "good neighborhoods" which is a dog whislte for non-spic areas.

>>54679062
>begin the gentrification with your white presence.

fucking kek
Just the fact that you are 100% certain that I'm white and also 100% correct. Lol

>>54677344
You will never be a real Lord. You have no demesne, you have no vassals, you have no peasants. You are a common man twisted by capitalism and progress into a crude mockery of good breeding.

All the “rent” you get is two-faced and half-hearted. Behind your back people mock you. Your parents are disgusted and ashamed of you, your “friends” laugh at your pathetic acreage behind closed doors.

Noblemen are utterly repulsed by you. Thousands of years of feudalism have allowed noblemen to sniff out commoners with incredible efficiency. Even commoners who “pass” look poor and ill bred to a nobleman. Your bone structure is a dead giveaway. And even if you manage to get a drunk nobleman to swear fealty to you, he’ll turn tail and bolt the second he gets a whiff of your tiny freehold.

You will never be happy. You wrench out a fake smile every single morning and tell yourself it’s going to be ok, but deep inside you feel the depression creeping up like a weed, ready to crush you under the unbearable weight.

Eventually it’ll be too much to bear - you’ll buy a rope, tie a noose, put it around your neck, and plunge into the cold abyss. Your parents will find you, heartbroken but relieved that they no longer have to live with the unbearable shame and disappointment. They’ll bury you with a headstone marked with your birth class, and every passerby for the rest of eternity will know a commoner is buried there. Your body will decay and go back to the dust, and all that will remain of your legacy is a skeleton that is unmistakably common.

This is your fate. This is what you chose. There is no turning back.

>>54676812
All cycles are accelerated as the "economy" becomes more financialized

>>54676874
Many on variable rates in Canada, longest typical fixed 5years, 20% renewing per year.
Oh Canada.

>>54676966
Oh Canada

>>54676966
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kguaGI7aZg

>IT AAAAAAAAALLLLLLL REURNS TO NOTHING

House chads are fucked. If you cannot see your "new paradigm" optimism/ stupid complacency is exactly the same as every fucking crypto bullrun I don't know what to say.
Biden is so desperate that he's trying to offload property onto niggers and make the White man pay for this.
It's Joever. The property market is already dead.

>>54679174
>just need to cool off for the next rally

>>54676412
>places like canada are fucked even worse
Australia is by far the worst by any measure. They decided to fight off a recession caused by trying to get inflation under control by having super high immigration which has ironically caused inflation to go higher and the house prices to increase despite rising rates reducing people's borrowing capacity.

the entire country is running the san francisco real estate model

It's obvious housing is dropping and will only continue to drop. The only anons who disagree are very clearly anons who bought houses recently and are married to their investment, just like shitcoin holders.

>>54679278
Canada also doubled immigration

>>54679242
As someone who thought this in 2008 my advice is be willing to pivot.
They can either let housing drop, which is deflationary, or inflate.
Neither are "easy" options. The system can't cope with deflation. But inflation will roast the boomers alive.
Either way we get a reckoning and boomers finally get hit. Good.

>>54676697
>balkanization of america
Into what? Nigger do you even know what balkanization means?

>>54676803
You sound poor, stop it. It embarrassing kek

Hoomers are fucked.

>>54676280
As much as the retards on tiktok may say “I’ll die before I sell my house with a 2.75% interest rate”, it’s not the case. The consoomer bug will bite them and they’ll sell in a decade or two to buy a nicer house with a 7% rate they can barely afford. People don’t sell starter homes to make money. They do it to have a nicer home, or out of the necessity for more space for children. They will bitch about the new interest rate, but they’ll pay up.

>>54679915
many will lose their jobs in the upcoming recession and be forced to sell into a steep decline

Historically it takes about 4 years for the housing prices to bottom after the market has bottomed out.
This is going to be a really long collapse once it starts going.
For the moment markets are still good enough for companies to stay afloat and employ people. Once the markets take a shit and the jobs go, that's when the real fireworks start popping off.

>>54679435
>stop it. It embarrassing
You sound like a pajeet

>>54680019
This is true as well.
>inflation continues at its current rate
>local governments increase property taxes
>your house also value “goes up” due to inflation
>more property taxes
>sorry goy… I mean guys. You owe an extra 50% on top of last years taxes
>wages only rise 4% yearly for most people
>barely surviving
>layoffs begin
>suddenly many people can’t afford their homes with a 2.75% rate

Bought in 2016 @ 3% interest with no points. House has almost doubled and will stay this way even if the world burns. Why?

>live on a private air strip with a hangar attached (I fly but car fags love hangars)
>neighborhood is 98% white. The other 2% you ask? Retired local professional athlete with white wife so I have to factor in the mulatto children. Kids are legit successful students and well raised.
>Schools are top tier and mostly white. Public schools so you don't have to budget private schooling which DOES affect home values greatly in the USA.
>Cops and firefighter station are less than 1 minute away. My wife had a PE after our last child and when I called 911 the firefighters were there in 1 minute. No exagerration.
>Big leafy trees
>No lack of rainfall or fresh water long term
>Taxes are high (Illinois) but mine are low compared to the city

Feels good man. I ain't ever selling or leaving. Letting Bidenflation inflate my debt servicing costs to less than zero. Paying off early is for suckers.

>>54677005
>>54676991
How to profit off of millions of 20-50 year olds failing to make their car payments? I feel like the banks don't really "profit" in a situation where the buyer stops making payments, right? I know the bank takes the car but they have to turn around and resell it and such right? Seems like a zero-winner game unless you're just savvy about sniping good used cars at great prices, outside of that I'm having a hard time figuring out where to make money on all this unless you consider it to be just a part of an even larger "American middle class bubble" and in that case you could just short the US stonk martket I guess

>>54679062
A shithole in San Bernardino on the edge of the freeway is $500k. The fucking GHETTO is twice as much as a mc mansion in a crimeless white flyover.
>>54679106
See above. Unless you're making millions, you should stay where you are. No amount of money is worth 45 minute drive times to leave the city on a good day, gas that often reaches $7, and insurance can be several thousand if you have a non-poverty line income and a family. You will deal with drugged up homeless and crime rates comparable to Brazil's neighbors. The rate of rape is twice as much as Puerto Rico. Your neighborhood will be littered in needles and feces. I am not making this up.

>>54680265

scummy used car lots already do that by getting the downpayment and charging insane interest that the buyer never pays. They repossess the car and resell it to another nigger.

They sell the same car 10 times getting a down payment every time.

>>54675582
And then what are you going to buy at 6.5% interest that is going to have a price correction within the next 2 years?

>>54676332
You can look at the United States Fed Interest Rate YoY graph and see that they will either keep rates at this level for several years, or continue to raise it where it will stay at another point for several years. Powell is not causing the government to spend money. Politicians are that want to be re-elected so they can keep getting paid by lobbyists and keep their prestige/perks.
It is quite bad now. My funyuns have increased by about 2 dollars since 2020 :^(

>>54679915
>The consoomer bug will bite them and they’ll sell in a decade or two to buy a nicer house with a 7% rate they can barely afford.
Why wouldn't I just spend my money to improve my starter home instead?

>>54680836

Yeah I don't really understand the endless cope of everyone assuming we're going back to 2% rates in two more weeks when the fed has signaled they are doing anything except that.

>>54674914
Prices are up again in my town, faggot. Location, location, location.

>>54680984
Because your wife will bitch that her friends all have nicer home than yours and your kids can’t share bedrooms past early adolescence. The price to expand your home will be comparable to the cost of buying a new one after yours is sold since materials and labor costs are sky high, and faced with the choice of getting cucked for half your net worth or biting the bullet and paying a higher interest rate, you’ll choose the latter.

Any home Chad's like me that know they'll never be underwater because their house is nearly paid off?

>>54676864
kek this
The entire point of the last 8 years has been to show a dichotomy so that Trump can bankrupt the USA and end the fed as some saviour.

>>54679122
imagine if you actually took this level of passion and applied it for the betterment your own life. i know people say this shit all the time as a joke, but you really need to have sex, my friend

>>54675582
>$226/sqft
>$237K zestimate
Jesus dude

>>54675919
>$237.5k / $226/sq foot = 1050 sq ft
my apartment is bigger than your "home." but i'll be sure to post a picture of my 2k square foot house when i buy it in cash next summer -- send me your email.

>>54681202
> No wife
> No kids
> Fertile forever as a male

>>54677024
Never again.
All houses will be left to descendants and will be constantly remodeled for hundreds of years.

>>54681415
We will see if that changes in a decade. Even if it doesn’t, that’s the situation millions of people will find themselves in. Most normies have no problem living one paycheck away from bankruptcy just to keep up with the Joneses

>>54681358
All I did was change a few words, anon, it took me 30 seconds.

>>54674914

Doubt it. It will never crash again. This is not 2006. This is not 2008. Housing market is going up forever. This is the new paradigm folks.

>>54681797

Yes. This time is truly different

>>54674914
low iq clickbait, good job failing the iq test

say with with me
>after a massive rally comes a massive correction. in every market, across all space and time

>>54681956

I would put us on the "return to normal" phase as there's endless copers saying we're not in a crash.

The real fear hasn't started yet.

>>54681988

Also keep in mind that this rally is something that is magnitudes bigger than anything we have ever seen in history.

>>54681797
Look back 100 years and there’s always a crash every 18 years or so. We’re due for another one in 2026. It won’t keep going up especially with boomers dying off.

>>54676482
>anon makes an astute observation
>sub 80 iq mouth breather spams the thread in all caps saying others are seething
Classic projection kek

>>54681415
>Fertile forever as a male
Is it the life goal of every conservative male to spread autism like the plague?

>>54676332
Werent people saying they would resume QE at least 6 months ago as well? You permabull retards have literally no idea how bad it is. They would rather have a fiscal crisis and slowly recover than have hyperinflation (this creates Nazis)

>>54682254

Correct. Hyperinflation is a failed state and a complete collapse of the government.

>>54681797
>>54681059
>>54678826
>>54676971
>>54675582
>>54675982
Good Luck,

Mike

>>54675582
Do you often see section 8 nigs?

hooomie...

why don't people protests about unaffordable housing ? Maybe it's not so bad in Us but 50% of germany rents. Obviously the percentage of older people renting is a lot less but nevertheless - when you have 2 options:

1) pay ~1/3 of your income to some other dude who owns a house
2) have a house and bank payments become less and less every year due to inflation(benefits the debtors).

The first one is so bad. The 2nd one is so much better. Why do people protest all kinds of crap but work full time and can't afford a roof over your head is - nobody is complaining about it.I don't get it.

>>54676393
>You know fixed term is usually only like 5-10 years in most places and pretty much everyone except smart people who bought the lowest of low rates have variable rates? Theoretically if rates went up to 10-20% a lot of people could be forced to sell whether they want to or not, but most likely this won't happen and it's a poorfags dream scenario that they'll finally afford to buy, but they won't.
American mortgages are fixed unless they are adjustable.
Sadly that means everyone else in the world gets fucked but America. It's literally a
> Not my problem

>>54676939
>maybe later if this is a real depression
No one waiting will be able to afford a house if a depression hits.
>Cheaper housing
>starving because unemployed
at least the immigrants get fucked too.

>>54674914
every day I start to see the housing market more and more as a jungle, I think I am already too comfortable with CHEQD to get involved with one of those animals selling houses at 900k