/biz/ - Business & Finance

Obviously yes the US Dollar won't go away, it just won't be the world's reserve currency i.e. it will be "just another currency" like the pound, the euro or the yen
The world's reserve currency will be one created by a currency union, like the euro or the BRICS currency

>>54493267
I disagree. Considering the amount of absolute political entrenchment that's going on, I don't really see a truly "global" reserve ever happening again. That was a feature of the Industrial Age, and we are now in the digital one. One where money moves at the speed of light, and across borders through the internet.

>>54493298
>That was a feature of the Industrial Age
No it wasn't

>>54493308
also it's important to note that it has nothing to do with politics, during the main war between britain and spain the brits funded their army with the spanish currency and during the war of 1812 the americans used the british currency.
The world's reserve currency has always been tied to the largest economy at any given time

>>54493308
Perhaps industrial age was the wrong word.
>"Then, in the final decade of the fifteenth century, there was yet another turning point. It was then that Europe emerged from the demographic deficit caused by the Black Death and almost immediately began to assert dominion over the rest of the globe."
>"The 'Gunpowder Revolution', the 'Renaissance', and the 'Reformation' are names given to different aspects of this transition that ushered in the Modern Age. It was announced with a bang when Charles VIII invaded Italy with new bronze cannon. It involved an opening to the world, epitomized by Columbus sailing to America in 1492."
>"This opening to the New World launched a push toward the most dramatic economic growth in the experience of humanity. It involved a transformation of physics and astronomy that led to the creation of modern science. And its ideas were disseminated widely with the new technology of the printing press."
What I'm saying is the idea of a global reserve currency perfectly fit an era that could not imagine digital technology and its effects on the economy. That era is coming to a close, and I think "reserve currencies" won't ever really be global again. We live in a new paradigm.

>>54493390
So what do you think will happen?
How will we denominate the prices of things like oil or gold?

>>54493411
I think there's two possible outcomes.
>Largely trade will not be free between the two blocks. Muh national security, our heckin democracy, and such arguments will be used to validate it on the western side.
>People who trade internationally now constantly deal with an instantaneous exchange rate and keep in mind two prices for commodities. Arbitrage becomes a huge thing
The second seems outlandish, but the first would be very painful.

>>54493470
Yeah I actually agree with you, I think the first outcome will happen (it already is starting imo)

>>54493233
Yes the dollar will Collapse, and I will be watching it all burn from my country home on 300 acres, sipping a cool can of Bussy Light.

if only there was a fairly distributed, digital coin with a immutable ledger which could act as a reserve currency....

>>54493233
I am skeptical of that there is any appealing alternative to "Liberalism" and Western Culture. I have been to Russia, China, Gulf States, India, South East Asia, and younger generations want to be a part of the Western Liberal world, "Globohomo" as it is called. This is also largely the case in Iran and increasingly many muslims countries.

I think that we are seeing the last vestiges of the Second and Third World Boomer hold-on. Slightly sort of similar to Trumpism in America etc.

>>54493233
The USN still maintains a shitton of global trade routes and keeps pirate niggers from trying to plunder ships as well as maintain general stability, so in that regard anyone who thinks the US is going to disappear from the world stage is an actual retard. That said I think we’re going to go through the financial version of the 70’s oil crisis, that is get some growing pains we’re gonna move through and change from for a bit that came from a mountain of bad habits behind us. BRICS countries are far too unstable to actually be a significant thing, Brazil and South Africa are Brazil and South Africa, Russia is turning into a more alcoholic and drug riddled North Korea thats playing so much ball with China since they have no choice but to, and China and India hate each other and can’t stop grug clubbing over border conflicts in the mountains, and all of them are dubiously stable at best. The Dementia Patient in Chief and his masters may be fucking things up, but I for one don’t see it lasting much longer, at least in its current form. This anon >>54493661 brings up a good point too.

>>54493661
Globohomo like to start young and build from there. Where I'm from, the chud parents are lazy retards who let their kids watch shows like Tranny Universe and other rainbow pozz cartoons.

>>54493691
>that is get some growing pains we’re gonna move through and change from for a bit that came from a mountain of bad habits behind us
The question is whether these bad habits can really be put behind us, or if they're in fact the foundation of a fiscal house of cards that will simply fall as soon as correction finally can't be put off any longer. Can you really kick a can down the road *indefinitely* without the consequences growing more and more severe until eventually the consequences are total? We might find out.

>>54494588
Its definitely the question of the times, but I for one think something will give sooner or later. The less money people make, the more they get pissed. Even Blackrock has been on a bit of the retreat for a bit, and now their offices in Paris are getting attacked.

>>54494651
Something will very obviously give. But if we had let it give 25 or even 15 years ago it's probably that the consequences would have been bearable. They taped it back together and piled more weight on it instead.

>>54494556
You have the wrong end of the stick. In China and Chinese sphere you have quite an authoritarian system, it is not the greatest to live under within China let alone much of the practises with go on in the region with slavery, torture, killings, crackdowns on protestors etc. We are talking about the likes of the fishing industry in Indochina where you have enslavement and notorious stuff like the videos of Chinese slavers tying slaves to two boats and tearing them in half etc. In Russia there is this regime with its war and much death and injury, in much of the islamic world there appears to be the beginnings of cracks forming in religion, similar to what happened to Christianity in Europe around WW1, of that they see a lot of destruction and death over religious conflicts and they become disillusioned. And meanwhile these people not only see Western culture and want to be a part of it as it is the cool thing, which is not brainwashing kids with tranny stuff just cool western people and cool western culture, but they see nicer countries to live in with better living standards etc.

I am not a "liberal" etc, I am not a proponent of very socially liberal stuff, but generally liberty *does* naturally appeal to individuals while authoritarian regimes do not. You are missing the point of that it is the boomers in these places who had been started on young with strong Russian and Chinese propaganda and they are the hold over, such as in Russia it is the older generation who are all pro-Kremlin and pro-war, the younger generation are not.

In much of the developing world younger generations want to be like the West, have societies like the West, lifestyles and liberty and wealth like the west, and it is not a product of western propaganda but just their own references. This also applies to the ruling classes, such as talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran is on a communtiy like this seen through a lens of unity against the west, but the drastic change is ...

>>54493233
Pretty sure China has more USD denominated debt then Yuan.

>>54494556
>>54494713
..the big change is the death of the old generation. The previous ruling classes of Saudi Arabia and Iran would not have such talks because of legacy. It can be a big misreading to think these increases in cooperation are a fragmented world if relaly it is increasingly liberal individuals in the ruling classes gaining power who are interested in a more globalised world. U.S can actually be seen to be the power which is driving towards a fragmented world as it has less interests abroad.

What I am skeptical of is whether the U.S has any interest in an increasingly unified and peaceful world. I am skeptical whether U.S wants a peaceful Russia; I do not so easily believe that the U.S does not want a hostile Russia on the doorstep of Europe. I do not easily believe that the U.S sees China as a rival or cares what China does in the region. The American elite perspective can be that a fragmented world is good for the interests of America.

>>54494700
Problem is that people were still too cozy around then, especially boomers. Nowadays everyone is getting equally fucked. Life always reverts back to a certain median after some time, this is far from being the first time in history when society became a clown show and economics followed. Maybe I’m being more optimistic than what the typical /biz/ or 4chan user would be, but I for one think in due time shit is going to calm down after a while. Its just that the road to that calm is, as always, going to be pretty damn bumpy and require a little bit of brain and balls on your part to not get fucked up from.

>>54493233
>low gdp
remove derivatives market and imaginary inflated funny money trades and compare size of industry and other real things

>>54493233
That would be the logical thing to assume. But only if EU continues on their suicidal crusade and they may choose not to. I suspect they'll try to play both sides until US snaps at them and then who knows what happens.

>>54493233
Why are you telling us.
(This is not a hypothetical question I'd like to know why.)

>>54493298
well isnt it like bleeding 1% of trade a week right now? where's the breaking point? and if sandman is real holy shit we are indeed fucked........

China pegs RMB to USD, what's the argument for it replacing USD here?

>Gold Yuan
>India is going to adopt Chinese currency as their reserve
>as is all of Southeast Asia
>The entire Middle East is going to just give up the petrodollar for the Yuan
>The Chinese economy isn't about to collapse like a house of cards in the next decade or so

Do they they even pay half of these people to shill or are they just fucking dumb?

>Gold Yuan reserve
>Gold
>Yuan
>BRICS
>Currency
lmao, you missed the right thread, lad
>>>>>54488838

>>54495352
propaganda department sent new guidelines
don't you know how the internet works
it is relatively inexpensive to employ government shills in the third world
pay attention to the words they use, sentence structure and the overall feel

>>54493233
Very interesting, anon. I think that a Chinese Yuan is less likely than a BRICS currency similar to the European Currency Unit from 1979-1998.

I would recommend the following for red/purple:
>Bolivia
>Nicaragua
>Haiti
>Serbia

I would recommend the following for blue/purple:
>Egypt
>Oman
>Jordan
>Tunisia
>Georgia
>Thailand
>Indonesia
>Timor L'este
>Singapore

I would recommend the following for blue:
>French Guiana

>>54493308
Saved

>>54495417
you re cute. want to go for a drive ?

>>54493233
>depends on how the war goes
>maldova
??????

>>54494713
You raise an interesting point, and a POV that not a lot of people are factoring in

>>54493298
The clear answer is Bitcoin. A BRICS currency won't work as it will have the same problems the euro does, and the euro is going away as soon as the EU collapses.

>>54494754
Best poster ITT and that's a very good reading of the KSA and Iran cooperation.

While everyone wants some degree of liberalism, I don't think the younger generations are so enchanted with the post-2015 vision of liberalism the West has had as it slowly became more deranged and demented ever since the moment Trump announced his candidacy. People just want to live with peace and entertainment without any real conflict like it was from 1980-2000 in the USA and Europe. That kind of tranquility is the ideal of human life and what the youth in 2nd/3rd world want.

The LGBT/BLM and militant liberalism that formed after Trump makes everyone uncomfortable and uneasy, none of the youth want that. This makes a significant portion of them cling to the semblance of what their parents believe in because they don't want to be swallowed up by globohomo. The path for the future is unclear because nobody knows where their real loyalties lie.

Sorry if I'm not coherent because I'm very tired but I hope you understand what I'm trying to convey. The youth are confused and cornered and don't know who has their best interests in mind. They don't want to go back to the old ways but the new ways seem like a trap.

>>54498731
This is an interesting take.

>>54493233
Nothing is happening. Of course chudcels hate America so they want us to lose, but nobody is going to buy manipulated yuan or worthless Rubels. The only reason China is even allowed to exist is because their wages laces are cheaper so we can do the simple slave work there. Without foreign investment china is NOTHING, why would anyone ever to use their currency for anything?

>>54495195
I agree 100%.

>>54498855
Everything is "Made in China", so it would be natural that we would be purchasing their goods with their currency in a free market.

Also this would be awful for China, the yuan is purposefully underpriced. When their currency appreciates, they will no longer be competitive.

>>54499181
And China, does not exactly want the yuan to replace the dollar, because this brings it's own set of problems. Being permission-less, decentralized and neutral makes Bitcoin the perfect instrument for exchange.

>>54494713
>I am not a "liberal" etc, I am not a proponent of very socially liberal stuff, but generally liberty *does* naturally appeal to individuals while authoritarian regimes do not.
You're missing the point that the US does behave in an authoritarian fashion on the world stage and increasingly behaves that way domestically as well. Keep parroting your temperature-cooling deep state bullshit about how the entire world is just jealous of us and wants to import our freedom you massive stupid faggot.

>>54498731
Wrong as always poltard.

>>54498480
>You raise an interesting point, and a POV that not a lot of people are factoring in
He is going with an anachronistic "Shining Beacon on the Hill" argument like it's 1955 and we're winning hearts and minds. It's completely laughable. Not even Americans believe in America anymore. Much less any one else.

>>54498855
Your opinions are worthless.
>allowed to exist
Geostrategic relations and geopolitical matters are determined by ability, not by intentions or desires.

>>54499252
Except all those countries don't want anything neutral or decentralized. They want something they control 100%.

>>54499181
Exactly but I still believe that China is genuine in seeking this. Xi has been talking about China having enough material wealth. He is willing to suffere reduced economic growth from an rising yuan so that he can reduce his vulnerability to the dollar. Doing so helps him avoid the problems putin faced when all his dollar assets were seized at the beginning of the Ukraine war. Xi is preparing to take taiwan.

>>54499181
Just because some of the manufacturing is done in china it gets the “made in china” label. Why would anyone pay for an iPhone in yuan? You would pay for an iPhone either in dollars since Apple is an American company or in local currency with the price converted from usd.

>>54499534
If Xi allows the yuan to rise he is effectively destroying the sole reason his country rose to power. Cheap labor. Practically slave labor. Why else would anybody go through the pains of working with them in the first place? They can't afford to not micromanage the yuan. It's their one and only meal ticket.

>>54499426
Do low iq retards always just write incongruent babble or is that just a (you) problem?
What are you even trying to say? That you hate the US?

>>54493233
you have a toddlers view of the world

>>54493411
An ounce of gold is worth an ounce of gold.

Wow look at all the shitholes in red. BRICShitcoin is sure to be a smash hit.

>>54493233
Orwell saw it all coming. The pre-block formation 1984 is so real now.

>>54493233
it will be the yuan. china is playing both sides on ukraine to make it happen. a multipolar financial system will last a very short time. currency power consolidates quickly.

>>54499953
>it will be the yuan.
Which would drive out business in China a la Japan's strengthening Yen style.

>>54499963
they can buy energy for cheap from russia in yuan, it will hurt less than you think

>>54500008
That's not the problem with a strengthening Yuan.

>>54493233
>Chinks make their undervalued shit currency the third world's reserve currency
>suddenly no longer competitive, as they are a middle income trap shithole propped up by building cities where nobody lives and highways to nowhere
>become the Brazil of the East, with an aging but still poor population, while the West automates all formerly outsourced industries
>third world remains poor and dies from demographic collapse and climate change 50 years later
This is actually bullish for the dollar

>>54493491
based

>>54501054
Turn off the legacy media. The formerly empty cities and highways to those nowhere cities are no longer empty. If the British Empire and American Empire were able to survive centuries with their money as the world's reserve currency than so can China. In reality, we are going to live in a world where there is no longer a single reserve currency for decades or even a century. The problems China has with demographics also includes America, Japan, Canada and all of Western Europe. Everyone in the G7 has the demographic hole in their boat, so it is not that much of a problem for China.

XRP the standard, the neutral bridge currency between entrenched east-west. Bitcoin has huge energy/scaling problems and won't be used

>>54496874
Thanks anon. I'll be sure to read that book.
Also I appreciate the reccomendations. The only reason I didn't put French Guiana as blue is because of proximity to Brazil (BRICS) and Suriname (Maj. Muslim). Idk how actually dependent they are on trade from either nation.
I put all Muslim nations as red/purple because I think they'll move as a unified bloc towards this new BRICS currency.

>>54501054
Interesting take. This would explain recent economic actions by the government, as if we're trying to gently persuade BRICS into separating. With the rise of advanced AI, chinese manufacturing trade is a liability now.