/biz/ - Business & Finance

Have to wait for unemployment to go up and boomers to panic sell

>>53008504
Sellers are holding out but inventory is building up and sooner or later prices will rug.

They're already down 20-30% where I live and still falling. This was one of the bubbliest markets though.

>>53008504

not a year ago, but almost. There is a 100% chance a crash will happen, although it won't happen as quick as you may expect it to.

Just around my area (in Australia) I've seen almost 15-20 for sale signs when driving through one postcode. That's insane when you think about it. Only a year ago houses were sold before they even hit the market.

As the old saying goes - times be a changin'

After 2008 prices didn't bottom for 3 years.

>>53008562
>we will never see 90s housing costs ever again

>>53008504
Because most people can afford their 3% fixed rate mortgage and bought to actually live in their house

>>53008504

Increase unemployment rate. Keep increasing then the housing market will dump. Automate more jobs and eliminate them and don't create any jobs.

>>53008538
>>53008623
This.

>>53008543
And more importantly I want to add on to this point. The housing market will most likely crash but the kicker is when it does, you and all your little zoomer friends wont be able to buy. Unemployment will be massive, you won't have a steady income and not a single person is going to lend you money to get a home. By the time you get a job and get back on your feet, a new bull/inflation narrative will be back at it again and the same thing will happen as is going on right now

The blackwater/rock or whatever company has a link to the US treasury aka they can buy up houses directly with the money so it will not collapse.
This all goes to rent them out and create money for themselves.
It will collapse when someone starts a real war like china soldiers taking over seattle.

>>53008504
Because rich people see it as free money. Its the thing they want most, their taxes need to be raised for multi home owners

>>53008675
It will never happen. The first municipality that does it will lose population, because people will just flock to the next municipality over and buy homes that aren't taxed. Housing is a Ponzi scheme and people aren't going to vote for policies that deter people from coming into their community and lower their property values.

You know when Tom chases Jerry off a cliff and stays running in the air for a minute?

>>53008574

We won't but we may see a return of the historical average of case shiller which would be fine.

>>53008661
Blackstone are limiting withdrawals after they shit the bed

>>53008504
there won't be a crash like you think. housing supply isn't there to support a major recession. 2020 was a joke. the next time things get 2008-level bad, there will be a major call for government intervention in the form of nationalization of housing as an emergency measure. foreclosed homes will be bought by the government at a discount and leased to renters. private homes will only increase in value.

>>53009011
> Public housing increases with reasonable rents
> Private housing goes up
Pick one

You'd be surprised how stupid the average person is if being swayed by someone out creating votes for a said bill/piece of legislation.

>Unlimited immigration
>Zoning restrictions

Pretty much these two. For about $100k you could gather all your buddies, do heavy research, and build each other homes that sell for $1m in a modern suburb. The government will never let you do this though unless you hamstring yourself with fees, licensing, and permits.

Without the gov, housing would -98% within 24hrs

>>53008504
>Why wont the market crash?
its crashing here.
granted this home should sell pretty fast.
it sold for a million back in 2012.

within the next two or three decades, boomers will die of old age and their properties will either be given to the younger generation (to be sold) or collected by the government. At this time, I suspect there will be a race to the bottom in housing prices. It's my belief that boomers are hoarding property and have an unspoken agreement to keep their property values propped up

>>53008997
Blackstone is not Black Rock for fucks sake.
>>53009927
>to be sold
No, a lot of 30 year olds can't even afford a house right now so it's more like siblings will be fighting over who gets to live there.
It's also closer to 10-20 years. You must have Gen X parents because you don't seem to understand that boomers are all old now.

>>53009927
>just two more decades.

who the hell is buying homes at this point? with all inflated priced and inflated interests rates?

why arent home sales at 0 right now or close to it?

>>53008504
Markets don't just go from overbought to oversold in one day.
Look how long it took for the majority of people to accept that BTC was in a bear market.
A few months ago many weren't even willing to accept that real estate prices were coming down.
It takes time and as you already pointed out yourself the market has gone from listings selling the next day @ over asking w/ waived contingencies to 10%+ price drops and sitting for months.
The biggest reason why nothing is selling is because there is no forced selling.
If people were to start losing their jobs in large enough numbers it would release a lot of supply on to the market.
It really all comes down to if we hit a recession and how bad that recession will be if so.
The other thing to keep in mind which seems so obvious yet people still forget all the time for some reason, is that if people are forced to sell because they are losing their jobs that also means the potential buyers are losing their jobs as well. If sellers are desperate and buyers are insolvent that's a big liquidity issue and it would lead to very inefficient selling.

>>53008504
>My lease is up for renewal in 2 months and there's nothing on the market except overpriced crap and lenders have high rates. What the hell am I supposed to do?
you should have been thinking about that 3-5 years ago
>>53008538
>boomers
this is your guys problem right here, you don't even recognize reality. most boomers are dead and in nursing homes, the population hasn't rolled over its peak but their HOUSING has, they have largely moved on and are transferring their wealth to generation x now
and we don't have any reason to sell we're already situated. wait your turn :)
rates moving like that only punished poors/blacks in ARMs who should never have been homeowners, as i've said before, there's no crash coming, it's not 2007

>>53010539
because all housing is local. there is no national housing market. a price can fall far enough somewhere that the borrower does not have to care if the rate is 6% or even 12%.
the only thing common to the entire country is the fed setting rates and manipulating currency, which has an immediate effect on all borrowing, one which is more urgent for floating-rate issues and less urgent for fixed-rate, but immediate nonetheless as it is still able to re-price new vs. old issues.

>>53010539
Probably all the nurses, software salespeople, devs, various engineers, and everyone else making $100k and up per year.
They are being told by real estate agents, memelords, and boomers alike that the fed is going to pivot any day now and real estate is the best investment ever because IT'S HECKIN REAL AND YOU CAN LIVE IN IT.
For instance, I could buy a place right now. I can afford the down payment, I can afford the monthly payment, it just is retarded to do so because I would effectively be house poor and if I ever lost my job I'd be shitting myself.
Most people don't see it that way. Most people don't like looking at charts and taking trades even on high time frames. Most people, especially women, would rather just buy a house and be done with it. That is the capstone achievement for normies and so it's where all their efforts are directed. I've heard of normies going over asking by $100k on like a $600 or $700k house just because there was another offer on it and they'd been sick of looking for a year or however long and just wanted to be done.
Didn't you learn anything from covid? The normie values security above all else. They don't look at a house as a liability that kills them on opportunity cost and forces them to remain at a job they hate. They look at it as 'not throwing money away on rent', and 'everyone needs a place to live'.

>>53008504

Sure, if 30% of house purchases were not institutions and 20% foreign investments.

There's less wagecucks holding property that are going to panic sell with rate increases than you might think.

And who do you think is going to be buying the properties that these goobers sell for cheap to get out of their contract?

You guessed it.

Have fun living in ze pod.

>>53008504
>But the market is only down 10%.
yeah but without the rate hikes it would probably be up 30% by now just let that sink in

anyway everyone is on fixed mortgages so we have to wait a few years for them to get fired and exhaust their savings so that the bank can reposess and dump the houses. nobody on 30 yr fixed rate is going to voluntarily sell for lower prices

>>53008504
>Why wont the market crash?
>On top of that there's no inventory because nobody who bought/refinanced with low rates is listing their home for sale at this point.
looks like you answered your own question

had a guy bragging last night about his new house he got a before rates started going back up. he was oblivious to the fact that he cant sell it anywhere near what he paid for it because rates are back up

>>53008504
>this thread again
You've posted this thread daily the past few weeks. You have already been told the answer. Fuck off already.