/biz/ - Business & Finance

because we're too poor.

>>52770730
I haven't heard of it because im dumb

>>52770746
>>52770764
OK that's reasonable.

>>52770746
this
whats the point? even with a 30% correction we will only be at like 2019 prices
still too unaffordable for me to care about

>>52770730
Because I bought my house in 2018 and have a fixed rate mortgage that I can easily afford. Most home owners arent speculators and can stay at their current house

>>52770730
I am too busy laughing.
hehehehrhehahahahahahahaHAhahaHahahahHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGAHAHAHAHAHAGAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHÁAAAAAAAAASHHHHAÁAAAASSAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHSHSHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>52770730
Can't wait. I'm not a burger so if we go to 2017 levels I will have enough to directly buy in with a parking space too

>>52770730
now that companies are starting to lay off en masse, the real fun begins next year when people start defaulting on their mortgages. wait like 2-3 years and then go to foreclosure auctions. if it gets as bad as the last crisis, you can find a house that goes for 25-30 cents on the dollar relative to the top

>>52770730
>blowout
the what?

Because it doesn't exist in the UK, housing only go up

>>52770730
I don't have a wife or kids so I don't even really want to get into housing shitshow

>>52771848
this is US btw, behold OP's "epic" blowout

>>52770834
This

I don't know who to believe. Some say we're dumping -50% or more, but the mega crisis of 2008 only resulted in like -25% at its trough.

The moment Powell pivots the entire context switches again and the whole market gets an insta boost. This game of musical chairs is crazy.

>>52771868
they're objectively lying, see
>>52771863
>>52771848

Because that’s unironically a good thing.

>>52771868
>2008 only resulted in like -25% at its trough
most areas lost 30-35%. the areas that got hit hardest lost 40-50%. an avalanche of foreclosures meant that houses were often being sold off at auctions below market value. the further into the recession you go, the bigger discount you get because everyone at foreclosure auctions blew their capital early on.

t. bought house for 170k at foreclosure auction in 2012. valued at 480k in 2007. only 1 other bidder because everybody else was strapped for cash

>>52771885

It has been on a downtrend, the question is will this be a small slump or an actual crash. If 30 yr rates stayed above 7% I would be inclined to say we're full on dumping in 2023 but markets seem to think the Fed is about to turn dovish.

>>52770834
>even with a 30% correction we will only be at like 2019 prices

Why did this only just hit me until now?

>>52772224
We were all saying it lmao. Most people can afford their mortgage since lenders are more strict and the rates are fixed.

>>52772244
>companies begin laying off employees in anticipation of hard times
>high unemployment leads to even lower growth
>lower growth leads to even more layoffs
>unemployed people cant afford their mortgages. forced to sell or foreclosed on

it's the same story every time. people dont sell their home because they want to swing trade themselves into a better home. they sell their home because they can't afford to pay their bills

>>52771828
this

>>52772224
>>52772244
>>52770834
That should tell you it's going further than 30% but no one wants to believe it just like no one believed BTC could go below $40k, then $30k, then a previous ATH.
No one wants to sell currently because they don't really need to.
What would change all of that is if layoffs became so widespread that people couldn't make their mortgage anymore.
Suddenly a lot of people need to sell and there's no one left to buy because so many other people in the same position or they are just too poor to afford a home anyway. Eventually home prices will find a floor, the Fed will cut rates, jobs will come back and we restart the debt cycle again.

TLDR; the only way home prices will come down in any meaningful (~50%) is if there is a deep and painful recession with many people losing their jobs.

>>52772496
it's what I'm hoping for, residential/mortgage REITs would become so cheap, with cheap houses being the side benefit.

>>52772598
why do you want REITs? They don't have any of the benefits of actually owning real estate which would be the tax benefits and the fact you have someone else paying your mortgage.
That would just be a good time to buy a primary residence because at that point it would actually be cheaper to own than rent.

>>52772787
they're good if you need extra income, house comes first, but REITs can provide income to fund your mortgage payment(s).

>>52772496
Obviously not going to happen, the mutt debt ponzi is over if they let it collapse

>>52772889
you're thinking of the US gov't debt

>>52772911
Yes

>>52770834
this –what are we looking at? a 10% correction at most? believe me as a rentoid i wish it would all crumble but im not holding my breath

>>52770730
Because it's barely started and hoomers are in denial. I want you to set a reminder. Make this exact same thread, same image and everything, on December 7th 2023 and see what kind of replies you get. Either you will be mocked because by that point everyone will be talking about it or there will be massive cope.

>>52772859
Give me some good high yield dividend reits

>>52772889
Why

>>52773025
CITY CONDOS WILL NOT GO DOWN IN VALUE IN THE NEXT YEAR
>CITY CONDOS WILL NOT GO DOWN IN VALUE IN THE NEXT YEAR
CITY CONDOS WILL NOT GO DOWN IN VALUE IN THE NEXT YEAR
>CITY CONDOS WILL NOT GO DOWN IN VALUE IN THE NEXT YEAR

>>52773263
Literally getting hit the hardest

>>52773263
IMAGINE THINKING THIS

The only certainty is that the fed keeps raising the reserve rate every month. And they keep doing that because their metrics they are using don't account for businesses or people who were already prepared for the downturn. Everyone capitulated for the dip, but they make the dip keep on dippin.

Planning to buy house soon. Literally every house in my market is being cut $10k per week for last 5 weeks

>>52773025
Is bay area California going to be ok?

>>52773197
PSA (public storage) exploded (could be over valued) but probably has room to grow.

>>52771863
what web site is this

>>52773661
Truflation. A decentralized dashboard of aggregated inflation data powered by chainlink (ticker: link).

NOT MY ZESTIMATE
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>52773197
define good my favorites are STWD, ARR, RITM that offer above 5%

I just put my house up for sale bros
don't do me like this, send me some energy

>>52773777
>>52773197
ABR not ARR

>>52773765
RIP BECKY

>>52772787

Tax benefits and leverage. Financing properties is exceedingly easy in the United States. It gives the average Joe a chance to actually accumulate capital with a wagie income. If you're wise about it, it's the most straightforward path to decent wealth coming from nothing.

>>52773791

Not a great time lad. You can't wait a year?

>>52770730
how bad is it? i read a couple of weeks ago all the finance buys are getting fucked but cash buyers are still buying at the same rate. sales dropped overall.

>>52770730
Because despite this "blowout", prices are still way too high and inflated for me to really care or even entertain the idea of buying one.

>>52770730
What's going on?

>>52773968

The avg monthly payment was effectively raised by 40% in a matter of months, meaning, "pretty bad" for people on budgets financing homes. At the same time, the stock market got deflated, which is the capital that finances a lot of RE firm purchases. This housing recession has just started, the only question is how long it goes. It really could be a while if the 30 yr rate stays above 6%. Highest it's been in a decade.

>>52773661
Boomer scam site. See the other thread up right now.

>>52773777
At least 6% yield with a history of raising dividends, not interested in anything holding malls, more interested in senior assisted living facilities and anything in healthcare or apartments, generally

>>52774080
MPW

>>52774080
>more interested in senior assisted living facilities
I saw that REIT on the list too.

>>52772889
It happed in 2008

>>52773998
so when will there be meaningful price reductions?
pr rather when would be the best time to buy?
April/May 2023?

>>52773998
ah yes i forgot about the variable rate mortgages. of course. that sucks lol

>>52774171

2024. 2023 is going be a crashing year for the housing market.

>>52773845
this too, I only have 50k currently enough to get rid of mortgage insurance or at least close to it if home values drop enough. But it's not enough to buy a house outright, or even close to doing that.

>>52770730

I already blew out my asshole with my dairy dooky farts. It's stinky OP. Stinky Dinky.

>>52774080
ABR does deal with senior living and has a history of increasing dividends, STWD is multi family untis and malls, RITM does mortgage servicing.

>>52773898
doesn't make sense for me to wait, I already moved and the house has just been sitting there vacant, plus I bought in 2013 so am not under huge pressure to get tippy top dollar

>>52772053
Unlike 2008, foreclosures aren't going to be sold like they were, banks are keeping them to rent, or selling them off in lots to Blackrock owned property management companies. No cheap foreclosures for single family buyers this time.

>>52774359
Based banks staying rich.

>>52770730
>checks Zestimate

FAKE NEWS

>>52772496
>TLDR;
stopped reading there

>>52770834
Rare, a lucid rentoïd

>>52774096
LMAO I hope you're joking. MPW is a complete fraud and going to ZERO.

>>52770730
Because the housing market won't blow out (in the US). Europoors are fucked though, God have mercy on you

>>52774604
Uhhh thanks?

>>52770730

its not a blowout if you own property and your property value has almost doubled in a year.
My first house I got Feb 2021 went from $155k to currently $242k.
Every 30 days my value goes up approx +2.5% or $5800. I'm paying $800 a month mortgage and making almost $6000 a month in resale value when I do sell. Purchase real estate poors.

>>52774958
you conveniently leave out your insurance and tax from that ammount lmao, wonder why? also if your house was 155k to begin with its in a shithole and will probably be worth LESS than 155k when all is said and done.

>>52774979
except I included insurance and tax amount, and intentionally bought a 155k shithole knowing the value would nearly 2x in a few years, which I was correct on. I'm going to flip this place in like 2025 and sell for about $300k or more and you're still going to be doing whatever it is you do :)

>>52774359
This is cope

>>52774958
You sound exactly like everyone who bought crypto after the peak in 2017 right now lol

>I’m still up

Around me prices have only dropped by like 5% from ATH, which isn't even remotely close enough to offset the current interest rates

>>52775137
>only 5 percent. Can’t go any lower. Still above my buy in. Just keep hodling marines

>>52775004
>2025
OH NONONONONONO HE'S GOING TO SELL FOR A LOSS HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>>52770730
its not that low yet, It went up 50-100% in 2 years time. its probably down 12% from the top so its still too high. No deals yet in housing.

it will also take two or 3 years of grinding lower until we hit a bottom moves fuckin slow

>>52770730

Because hoomers will cope harder than anyone else and literally give themselves mental illness to keep denying that they bought the top of the bubble.

Remember all the guys calling you rentoid and how prices only go up? Where are they now? Oh that's right they're chained to a 30 year debt that is underwater.

>>52775255
In my area shitty one bedroom mobile homes did an actual 300 percent pump since 2016 and they’ve been on the market for 3 months. It’s obvious to me that this shit is going way lower. All of the REIT companies aren’t as smart as any of you think they are.

Real estate hit a bubble that has never been seen before in human history. We have a few years to get back to the mean.

>>52771807
Just about all homes have a fun ton of equity. They will just sell. And on top of that 90%~95% of home owners have interest rates under 4%. They could almost work fast food and their mortgage every month.

>>52776006
Take note kids, this is not how you English. Mushmouth mumbo jumbro. Either pajeet, racist ai or pure American retard right here.

>>52774604
You just read the long way then, retard.

>>52770730
There is no housing blowout.

yeah the housing market prices are just going to skyrocket

>>52772496
Too bad for you, no recession is happening. SOFT LANDING.

>>52770730
because this is a crypto board
>>52771851
seriously I don't want to pay property tax or maintenance, or upkeep I rather have the ability to move on a dime too

That £500k flat today
Will be mine for £200k tomorrow.

>>52772496
>Suddenly a lot of people need to sell and there's no one left to buy
You are mistaken.
Firms will swoop in and buy these homes for pennies on the dollar.They'll keep the prices artificially high and rent them to you.
Prepare to get anally fucked.

>>52773981
My wife doesn't seem to understand any of this, she still want to force us to buy a house in Cyprus from Kensington a few weeks back stating it must be specifically close to the beach, I'm fucked

>>52777535
The firms are losing even more money than retail dumbass.

>>52777869
>please feel bad for the multi-billion dollar corporations that have million-dollar bailouts and all types of capital, handouts, and loans which frequently have little to no interest!
nah, i dont think so chief.

>>52771868
As with all real property, depends on location. Vegas dropped like 75% over three years. 2009 to jan 2012. Median house in 2012 was like 120k.

Who the fuck knows how hard this is gonna be

>>52777654
I know Kensignton accepts crypto as payment, Faggot your wife is smart, Just get the 1.5% cashback on payment plus real estate is an asset.

>>52778104
Nobody said anything about feeling bad for them, just that they're losing money hooooodling their housebags

>>52770730
Anyone that uses housing as an asset deserves public execution by having their entrails slowly ripped out while all the other citizens are mandated by law to watch. If they turn away, they get shot.

>>52770834
This. These "oh the housing market has imploded" propaganda pieces never fail to mention the trend is eternally upward at astronomical rates.

>>52778562
*always fail

>>52773791
you're about a year late. r.i.p anon

>>52778533
extremely based

>>52770730
>housing market blowout
Prices have hardly dipped you wanker

>>52774958
>Im making 6k a month when I do sell
So youre making zero fucking dollars lmao business and finance.

>>52774359
True we dont have banks issuing (as many) subprime loans, but we do have a bunch of really big investment companies that bought homes 10% over listing, and who are now drowning in debt. Once they go bankrupt, they will have to liquidate their inventory, and the dominos will fall

>>52779950
>we do have a bunch of really big investment companies that bought homes 10% over listing, and who are now drowning in debt
I love seeing businesses who do stupid shit get punished.

>>52770730
The only reason housing prices are currently falling is because rates have gone up so the sellers need to compensate by lowering their asking prices. They have yet to really fall

>>52774080
>At least 6% yield with a history of raising dividends

6% yield you literally make nothing considering you would still have to spend a reasonable sum on maintenance not looking at housing at this point focused on buying every ALBT available on this dip.

>>52770834
>even with a 30% correction we will only be at like 2019 prices
Correct for inflation and calculate for associated cost of owning your house. Then realize the fed just shadow taxed your property.

>>52772053
I know a guy that got absolutely BTFO with his house in Detroit during the GFC.

>>52772496
Don't forget that when a lot of dems start banning remote work it'll toss up a ton of domestic-immigrant workers i.e. transplants. Recession layoffs + government backed layoffs means that $2k mortgage will burn quick, and when that $450k 2/1 starter home is $350k after 2 years then people will start hurting.
To say nothing of ARMS making a comeback
>but anon, they're more secure now!
Then I am wrong and line shall only go up as Father Dave says.

New conatruction in my area is still increasing prices by 2-3k a month. WTF is wrong with them, small suburb of Chicago, cookie cutter home by major burden 2300sq feet for 500k. It's fucking insane.

>>52773756
>the future is here
>random shit is now literally powered by chainlink like in the memes of old
>$6
>tfw
picrel is my bank account, also my hopes and dreams
what was i even thinking...

>>52772496
You realize how much of a stink mass foreclosure causes? First person in line to hear about it would be the government and they would be more than happy to have another excuse to "help" fix a crisis and expand the debt (yet again, who woulda thought!). In short: nothing ever happens.

>>52774604
So you read everything else?

>>52781796
>start banning remote work
Dream on wagie. This won't be happening.

>>52771848
I fucking hate conservacucks and their constant propping up of the housing market. LET IT FUCKING DIE SO I CAN BUY AHHHHH

>>52779950
Holy fuck I havent looked at this since the start of the year. Absolutely pricing for bankruptcy lol, although there are paths where they don't have to liquidate assets to cover liabilities (i.e. bailout merger)

>>52782724
It'll happen in NYC then SF.

>>52770730
https://youtu.be/f4M9HmHk58o
Tldr. If you want the house to crash, then don't buy or rent a house or more for the next 2 years

>>52774958
>My first house I got Feb 2021 went from $155k to currently $242k.
this is a comparatively poor investment compared to all the markets mooning last year.
>>52775004
>dealing with taxes, tenants, maintenance cgt all for a measly 2x after 4 years
i dont even get out of bed in crypto for anything less than a 30x now. what kind of levels of cope are you smoking.
>>52783232
i dont think housing will crash however more likely stagnate for the next several years meanwhile crypto goes on several bull runs because all the people who are priced out of home ownership will be finding other places to invest their capital

>>52783754
66IQ charlatan. Keep pretending you matter. You lose

>>52783754
>invest $6k down payment
>$90k equity gain within 12 months
“Wow bro those gains suck I only go for 1000x safemoon inu dog shots bro. And you didn’t make no money because your taxes and maintenance my guy. Don’t forget the taxes and maintenance”

>>52779950
slurpbro, we're all gonna make it.

>>52783754
>stagnate for the next several years
perhaps
> people who are priced out of home ownership will be finding other places to invest their capital
Meaning less demand on finding homes. It will make demands for home low. And since most home owners are boomers, and old people are paranoid, they will lower their price so someone will buy their bags (home bags kek).

The key is to kite these paranoid boomers lower the price even more, by not buying

>>52778533
Czeched. maybe a system with higher taxes on consecutive homes would work. also barring LLCs and other companies from buying.

How do you verify the state of the housing market? What info or sources should I be looking at? I have no clue but I'm interested

>>52772598
Using reit income to pay mortgage payments is not smart. If you have a debt on a real estate asset you shouldn't be depending on cash flows from other real estate assets to pay that debt down. If both your debt asset and your cash flowing asset are tied to the same market, if that market ever goes down you lose both.

Just an itsy bitsy little gully

>>52772496
Houses will absolutely not crash by 50%. Never going to happen. I say this as a renter. The MAX is a 30% drop and even that is very unlikely. A $550k home right now with a 30% drop is $385k. Very unlikely.

>>52783754
>this is a comparatively poor investment compared to all the markets mooning last year
uh m8... I know you've never signed a closing document for a mortgage, but you do realize how much embedded leverage there is in real estate... right? That $155k home probably cost him $10k up front and another $15k since (keep in mind 1/2 of the initial $10k goes straight into equity and 1/3 of the $15k as well). That's a 6x. It absolutely shits on BTC, ETH and stocks through the same period. And rents are so sky high now that if he were to rent it out, he is guaranteed to cashflow. It's literally free real estate if he so chooses.

>>52786308
IMO total drop gonna be around 10%

>tfw Miamifag

Real estate is never crashing here. I'll never own property here, bros. It hurts.

>>52786372
>counting negative gearing as an asset
You are so fucked lmao. everybody and their dog is buying into this theory that housing prices only go up without realising the only reason it went up the past 40+ years was because of a) immigrants b) population c) retarded boomers who had no idea how the stock market worked buying rental property to supplement their income while they had their 'career'.
All three of those things are just simply not going to be enough anymore. housing is going to stagnate and stay down while interest rates stay at these levels or rise higher. Dont you understand? Investing now is a race against inflation people will need to find other asset classes to maximize their gains because real estate will simply not cut it anymore. enjoy bagholding the boomers legacy to us. you are caught in a huge net with a whole lot of other fish and you dont even realise. goodluck

>>52787621
Not that anon but I just want a house to live in and raise children. I don't care about the investment aspect. The fact that homes are speculative investments at all is extreme cancer to society.

>>52786308

>I say this as a renter

how's this qualify you to postulate on RE trends? Lol

>just got in contract for a formerly $271k new build that the homebuilder is basically dumping in retreat
>new price is $209k plus a lot of bonuses towards closing costs
>mortgage rates just dumped a bit the past month from their high so I'm getting a 6% rate for a 30 yr

What do you think /biz/, good deal or am I too early? I'm planning on living there for 5 years anyway

>>52787681
A renter would more likely be bias into claiming there will be a huge crash, likely because of cope. A home owner, especially a recent one, would be more likely to deny there will be a crash.

>>52787731

Well, I already have one property and I think there is crash potential if the Fed doesn't reverse course soon. The air has entirely been taken out of the housing market.

We basically had 13 years of historically super low interest rates causing a permabull, then the crazy run up with almost no interest in 2021, and suddenly got rugpulled, rates up to 15 year highs and the effective monthly payment going up by 40% in a matter of 3 months

>>52787731
>>52787762

cont. My friend works in lending and this is their proxy for mortgage rates. It's basically directly tied to the 10 year yield. Look at that stretch we've had for the past 12 years or so. Crazy low vs. history. Then suddenly we spike well above that level. It's a bona fide rugpulling. All of the free money created out of thin air has just disappeared. This may not be anywhere close to the true value of homes in the US, just an artificially credit pumped market.

>>52787731
If you talk to most normal homeowners. They bought years ago when prices were half of what they are now and refinanced at or below 3%. My one boomer coworker is paying $800 a month for a 3bd 2ba house. I can't find a studio apartment for that price. She could work in fast-food and pay off her house. Why would she ever sell?
The housing market is broken because current owns have the world's best deal on housing.

>>52787661
>I just want a house to live in and raise children.
i know bro. But if you have parents that have not been able to pay off at least one house by now then by its too late to get your foot in the property door. I have a chad friend who has the typical finance job in the city making close to 6 figures who bought just a small apartment last year and is now getting rinsed by these interest rate rises. He had to do this all on his own, why? because he comes from a single parent household where his chad father fucked his stacy mother and ran off leaving her to raise the children and not build any wealth. This time around the path to succeed is going to be a heck of alot smaller i believe, an only people that cut against the grain are actually going to make it (bitcoin, crypto)

>>52775172
I'm looking to buy, friend, not sell. I've got $150k ready for a down payment, and even that's not enough to offset the ridiculous mortgage rates

>>52788097
It wouldn't be stupid to get an ARM loan now. In 3 to 5 years rates will be lower and you can refinance with a 30 year fix.

>>52787803
>This may not be anywhere close to the true value of homes in the US, just an artificially credit pumped market
Sure, for houses selling on the margin i.e. in today's market conditions. But for houses which have sold pre 2022, with interest rates locked in sub 3.5%, many sub 3%... the payments are so low compared to rental rates, or the rates on new mortgages, why would they ever sell? All these higher mortgage rates do is incentive people not to take on new mortgages, which means less new buyers, but also less people able to sell their current residence to buy a new one. Ironically, higher interest rates also constrain housing supply along with demand. It just sucks liquidity from the margins of the market and makes it more volatile.

>>52778533
Give me free beer to watch and I'm in.

>>52782707
>>52777136
>dat’s da joke

>>52778523
Good.

>>52787713
How much are you gonna put down? If you’re gonna have a down payment of 5% I would not move forward. If you have 20% then go for it. You need to have the flexibility to refinance down the road, should your plan change.

>>52786913
Come to Palm Beach County white man.

>>52772889
I have never once heard a white person use the word “mutt”.

>>52788435
>But for houses which have sold pre 2022, with interest rates locked in sub 3.5%, many sub 3%... the payments are so low compared to rental rates, or the rates on new mortgages, why would they ever sell?
Only if they literally had to.

>>52792760
The problem is the payment has been inflated to the point they could work fast-food and still make the payment.