/biz/ - Business & Finance

yawn, priced in
wake me up at 3% increase and actual decrease in their MBS and treasury assets

Priced in.

Priced in, this is actually bullish because it means the Fed will be able to point to even the slightest hint of an easing in CPI over the next few months to say, that's a wrap, our tough action has whipped inflation, now back to accommodative monetary policy and free dollerinos for everyone $$$

>>50372618
>entire country getting 1-2% poorer per month
>oy vey it's time to take drastic measures and raise rates from 1.58% to 2.58%
>(in reality probably a last minute cope and it ends up being a 75 bps hike to 2.33%.)

>>50372755
>>50372755
Also this kinda, but desu I think a 100bp hike would be more bullish

slowly squeezing the whole world, choking the liquidity
what a chad

>>50372755
>inflation is 9%
>let's set interest rates at 3% instead of 2%
>banks still getting paid to borrow money
surely this will lower inflation

>>50372725
So no balance sheet unload then?

>>50372911
doing so would either crash the housing and piss off the boomers (mbs) or surge 10y yield and piss off the government (treasuries)

>>50372618
1% lmao wont happen

>>50372629
your father's pussy is priced in faggot

>>50372618
>Trying to soften the 75 by anchoring to 100
Mumus are PATHETIC

Unironically priced in

>>50372911
>balance sheet
No they're shrinking it. See how fast they're shrinking it? It's PLUMMETING

Jerome Powell is the fall goy

Um actually sweaty this is bullish. See the more they raise rates the more they can lower them and lowering them will pump my meme stonks and layer 2 bags that reddit told me to buy so I'm feeling super fucking bullish right now ooohhh so bullish hmmm yeah

>>50373255
This, but unironically. The Fed pivot is at most three months away, and when it happens, all our bags are getting pumped. Stocks, crypto, real estate, and yes even PMs are going to ride back up to the top once Uncle Powell shifts back to a position that's more friendly to investors

>>50372618
This is just retards guessing. It'll be 75.

>>50372725
No the Feds going to have to keep increasing rates 25 and 50 bps at a time to get inflation to go down. One 100 bps hike isn’t bringing it down to 2%

>>50372863
You don't, and never would, raise rates to parity with inflation in order to combat inflation.

100% priced in

>>50373320
>One 100 bps hike isn’t bringing it down to 2%

2% inflation is never, ever coming back.

>>50373357
we never had 2% inflation to begin with. they'll just do what they usually do: make jewish lies.

This is priced in
Even with 200 bps in July, the markets would move like -1% max or even pump

>>50373287
>friendly to investors
They don't give a shit about "investors" aka redditors with investing apps and coinbase accounts. They people they actually answer to want decade long cycles of boom and bust cycles so they can buy low sell high until they own everything. Just like the last 100 years.

>>50373331
YOU FUCKING RETARD

>>50373287
There will be no pivot until the vix is over 50 and there are a seeies of high volume large spread capitulation candles on the chart.
Until then we are in an ongoing bear market and all rallies are being sold by smart money.

>>50372755
you are thinking about it wrong anon
its nothing domestic, they are trying to export inflation globally and since almost all trade internationally settles in usd they have been very successful in this
this shit with sri lanka is all because of the rate hikes and its about to get worse
you can already see inflation in commodities roll over as third and second world demand is killed

however it isn't flawless victory for the us yet they are playing with the most dangerous of all fires
this whole thing can backfire spectacularly if the second and third world united and reject the dollar as a trade instrument and default on all first world dollar denominated debt
when that happens 50 years of exported dollar inflation comes crashing on us shores in short order
look at which countries are joining brics soon and which government leaders aren't even picking up brandons phone calls anymore
world is shifting on its fulcrum right now

>>50373331
No dumbass you actually do if you're serious. The problem is the federal government can't AFFORD to do so.

>>50374645
it's the speed with which the swap from single reserve world currency to a multipolar basket of currencies + commodities + crypto that really interests me

how soon?
how many switch to gold/russian oil backed BRICS currencies?
how many stay with the new 'western' currencies?

the sovereign individual will have many pitfalls and opportunities

>>50375873
>how soon?
dangerous question right now, the prudent move is to front run the whole thing right now since the exponential increases in system failure are piling on
do you really want to hold out usd's on a centralized exchange or worse bank to get that last maybe capitulation or just pile into crypto in own wallet right the fuck now
as i live in the euro zone i take my accumulation right here giving exactly zero fucks about short term price action because any moment they can start up capital controls and then you are fucked

in any case if you've been here longer than last year your stack should be big enough to be sovereign right now
only maybe need to pool together to acquire censorship resistant transport (aka private sailing yacht)

need a simple concise statement of what will be happening and how to profit. something tells me it's within the spirit of sovereign individual+fourth turning but that's my bias

nothing ever happens
in all fields

Only 25% chance of 100bps right now. It's dropped from around 80% yesterday. Not happening (most likely).

>>50372618
I wish they'd just say fuck it, 8% hike. No survivors. The global economy needs to lose more dead weight. Humans need to be pushed to be productive again.

>>50376499
the fact that those odds swing that badly tells you how clowned this clown world is

>>50376959
Not that it makes a lot of difference, but 80% was actually Wednesday. Yesterday was 50/50. They've had a lot of fed speakers since the cpi report, so they tempered expectations.

July 27th they announce the rate hike. July 28th Q2 GDP comes out, confirming the recession.

>>50377063

>>50377063
confirmation of recession is somewhat important
so hiking interest rate is reducing liquidity from creditors side, but just because creditors willing to pay higher rates doesn't mean that banks are willing to lend and take the risk
official recession means banks now have an excuse not to lend any further, this will be devastating to liquidity, cascading bankruptcies will ensues, everyone will sell their assets because they need liquidity, THIS will be the real crash
after july, market might still go up since that's what always happen, then we pump until september which is the end of shmita
2008 lehman and market crash happened in september at the end of shmita, end of shmita is the beginning of the crash and not the end

>>50372618
Need a 1000bp hike to fix this mess

>>50377410
Ok, stalin

>>50376499
Commodities are crashing since beginning of July. CPI is obsolete.

>>50372767
yes, because there will be only one more raise before end of year to get the 3-4% planned rate for 2022.

>>50373020
>>50372948
>>50372911
Why won't they reduce it bros? It's a core part of the policy they are supposed to take here.

what's the requirement for recession? 2 quarters of shrinking GDP
they got that, now they can lower commodity price
crash and market devastation is already locked-in

>>50372911
Lending companies have been going bankrupt. They are most defiantly not buying more MBS right now.

loan application status: rejected
margin debt: called back

>>50377676
they can shrink it, its impossible unless the do stealth qe through the backdoor
the us gov has sky high debt, a budget deficit, a shrinking base tax due to recession and rising rates
they have to print more money to fill up the hole or they have to cut gov spending to a balanced budget
as the latter would imply an end to gibs and the looting and pillaging of urban areas that implies they will print
ignore all the bullshit their speakers say

>>50377676
They tried but we had that mega crash in mid june and they had to buy back.
They're still down 70 Billion since april but they claimed they'd be selling $90 billion per month after June. So it should be about $130 Billion already.
The whales don't seem to care what the fed does, they can just let everything collapse and then buy at 50% off.

>>50372618
75 point did jack shit what’s 100 going to do?

>>50379762
never go full retard.

>>50379248
does boomer retirement also decrease the tax base?

>>50377662
They will declare victory even with a 5% CPI

>Hey guys inflation was slashed in half! We did it

>>50376626
>July 26, FOMC meeting begins
> Jerome Powell rips off his mask- it’s been Paul Volcker the whole time
> “In light of recent core CPI data, the decision has been made to increase the federal funds rate by 750 basis points”
> Whoopsie an intern must have forgotten a zero while giving our previous guidance
> The everything bubble collapses
> The Fed’s next audit reveals $2 trillion in put options (bought at $20 billion)
> The whole bus claps

>>50377454
20% interest worked in the 80s after another Democrat broke the economy, why not now?

>>50377327
why bank should not lend if it is in their interest?

>>50377454
Hes not joking. CPI data is 9.1%, that means the Fed should be raising rates up to a minimum of 900 basis points, not necessarily all at once, but a few hundred basis points per month, like former Fed chair Paul Volcker. Get a job and stop gorging yourself on cheap debt, you degenerate consumer.

>>50377676
Because Jerome Powell is bought by Wall Street and is obsessed with stock market. He doesn't give two fucks about the actual economy, just stock market candles, because thats what his handlers force him to focus on.

>>50373520
>coinbase accounts.
Cry about it you fucking faggot.

>>50372651
Bulltards have been saying that right before every rate hike since december last year and they have been wrong every time

>>50374734
why? because they keep spending?

>>50374645
where did this sri lanka shitty lie came from?
It was killed by greens

>>50382986
>>50374645

>>50374734
>We can’t raise rates without greatly flooding more government debt onto the Fed balance sheet
Maybe the USA can get an IMF loan and some accompanying austerity measures.

>>50377605
they are "crashing"because large investors are moving their money to make margin calls in other derivative markets. the commodities will come back very strong when the price of oil and food doesnt come down with everything else

>>50382926
Yes, the US government racked up a ton of national debt through various retarded policies so interest rate hikes makes the debt unpayable.

>>50383275
that's being predicted, they will have to turn on the printing back in autumn which will pump the markets for a short time and then it will crush again letting inflation running wild.

>>50373395
This is the thing kek. 2% inflation was always complete bullshit. The official CPI right now is complete bullshit. They’ll just cook the numbers when they’re done and say we’re back to 2% even though it’ll be much higher than that.