/biz/ - Business & Finance

up or down before august?

>>50251363
will we see a drop after CPI number release?

>>50251380

CPI is this week, forecast is 1.1% MoM which is pretty heavy. Might see a drop then, a rally during the next FOMC meeting and generally keeping the downtrend for the near future.

Remember, there hasn't been a single recession/black swan event without a heavy flushout and panic selling. We haven't seen that yet.

>>50251363
do you & your colleagues expect the market to give back most of the QE-based gains with fed QT?

>>50251386

With the CPI forecast at 1.1% it will be very interesting.

If we see a print at 0.9% the markets might take this positively. "Hey the inflation is slowing down, buy the dip fegits" even though 0.9 is still a nosebleed level.

If we see a spot-on print of 1.1% I expect selling to continue, anything above that and I'll be making a lot of money on my short positions.

>>50251363
>I did an AMA about 10 days ago
Post the thread id anon

>>50251363
14 years of MMT and QE
Are you afraid that this is just the beginning of a dollar wrecking ball paving the way for a global/partly global CBDC.
If so, what are the implications if this happens for crypto?

>>50251406

The markets have proven time and time again, especially during late 2021, that they are neither efficient, nor in line with fundamentals.

It's all about a narrative that's being pushed by mainstream media and the likes that's making someone money.

In theory, all of my colleagues expect the market to give back all QE gains and go back to pre-covid levels and even further down due to the huge leverage that everyone has been using.

Free money doesn't stay free forever, there are a lot of funds who are overleveraged and can get major league fucked.

>>50251363
tell us about forbidden algos strats that are being used

>>50251363>>50251380
Precious metals/rare earth mineral mines; are we at an ideal entry point for this sector?

>>50251416

I don't use 4chan that often, mainly come for the shits and giggles, so have no idea how to get the thread ID.

>>50251433

You're asking me a question which will require a wall of text to fully answer.

The short version is- the US has been in big shit with all the QE, 0% interest rates etc, pretty much from 2009 onwards. This in itself creates problems that are swept under the rug rather than solved. But these same problems will need to be faced eventually one way or another.

The US government and the FED have been delaying an economic catastrophe for quite a while, let's see if they can kick the can down the road another decade. My bet is on no.

Regarding crypto- it's very interesting that after the 2017 blowout a lot of institutions and funds began accumulating crypto. The very same algorithms and market makers that have controlled the markets for decades, have been placed and working within crypto.

The plan is simple- make sure everyone sees and understands that bitcoin and crypto are NOT safe havens for economic turbulence. So far, price action-wise, they have succeeded in doing so.

Is bitcoin a safe haven theoretically? Absolutely. But when funds and institutions are in the mix and have so much capital they can pretty much do whatever they want, the scenario changes.

Ask yourself this- why is the dollar gaining strength when inflation is hitting 40-year highs? Isn't it counterintuitive given that a huge percentage of all dollars were minted in 2020?

>I’m uhhhhh a prop trader ACK
Us operations chads are actually the man behind the curtain btw, might sound impressive to a normie but I know that you don’t even know what a Swift is. Where’s your money at big man? Oh you need to ask operations where your money is? Funny that.

>>50251488
Do regulations make it hard for market makers to participate in crypto via centralized exchanges?

What about participating in on-chain markets, AMMs, L2 order books rather than centralized exchanges?

>>50251450

This is a nice one. There are a ton of algo starts that are used for different purposes, depending on the outcome that is needed.

There are algos that run on retail sentiment. For example, a market maker knows an increase in retail orders are coming in. The market maker creates a perfect double bottom intraday, swings the market for a triple bottom. Every retail trader is looking at the stock, placing a buy order on the bottom and a stop loss below that. The market maker pushes the stock further down, retail is buying and a minute later stop losses are triggered. Market maker takes your money and continues with the next price structure.

>>50251471

I'm not big on mines and metal trading. Mines are just like any other business- they're either making a lot of money or they're not.

>>50251533
How upside down is big money on insane short plays like GME/BBBY/KOSS/AMC and everything else in that swaps basket? Or am I asking the wrong guy and need to wait until someone that deals with swaps or works for the CFTC decides to make a random /biz/ thread to ask that question to?

>>50251531

Regulations have never made anything hard for anyone besides your average Joe.

I see spoofing being made on a single stock 5 times an hour, you think anyone cares? SEC might throw a measly fine of like 10K while the market maker made a million $ profit doing this.

Crypto is still the wild west, I have yet to hear of any fund or institution being actively regulated in crypto.

>>50251524

I don't work for a prop house but if you're some hot shot at one kudos man, you do you I guess. Hope the pay is decent.

>>50251566

Big money that are shorting GME are taking a hit, nothing major yet although the January runup sure made them more cautious. Short positions in GME are astronomical and may take several years to cover. They are already covering though, just in cycles rather than continuously.

The funds that are on the other side of the swap trade though, those guys are having a really nice payday.

Remember- when you have a sheep you shear it, you don't kill it and eat it.

Funds that are short AMC are making good money though, you can thank the CEO and the multiple dillutions for that.

>>50251488
Thank you kind Anon, sorry for asking the "real questions"
Here have a cookie

>>50251616
Based. You think the split issued as a dividend has any real power to end the game, or would that require the nuclear option of all shares being withdrawn to their own exchange on blockchain which the board has already stated they'll do if people get fucked around on share issuance from the dividend after a period of 90 days from issuance?

>>50251488
>ask yourself this- why is the dollar gaining strength when inflation is hitting 40-year highs?

I would think it's because the US has kept rates low and created a world where most debts the past 14 years is dollar denominated. Which means that when the FED raises rates emerging markets especially will have a hard time to pay the interest on that loan or the entire loan (in dollars).

For instance, if I have 100bn in us denominated debt and the fed raises rates I need to come up with huge sums of cash to pay that back or even pay the interest. What do I do? If I'm a nation state I'll print money and convert that newly printed fiat into dollars (creating inflation in my own currency) to pay back the loan and or interest on said loan.

Correct?

>>50251363
Cryptos up or down? And please keep it simple for the us the homeschooled people.

>>50251665

The dividend issued in the form of stock is actually a very interesting scenario, and I am sure it will be written in textbooks in the future.

If you're short a stock and the company announces a cash dividend, the company begins trading div-adjusted on the ex-date. If the stock is trading at 50$ and the div is 1$, tomorrow is ex-date, and the day after the stock should open at 49$. The short is paying the dividend out of his pocket. I've paid dividends on short positions and although it's a pain in the ass having to pay additional money for keeping the short, if the position is correct you'll still make money.

What happens with a stock dividend though? If it's a split, the price will be adjusted automatically on the ex-date. But the way GME has done it, we could see one of three things:

1. Either GME opens flat or close to flat on ex-div.

2. Shorts drop the price down, taking in a bigger short position in doing so.

3. Institutions and retail that's holding sell their additional shares on the ex-date.

A dividend in the form of stock is basically a dilution that's given to the hands of the shareholders. If everyone is selling, we can see a drop.

But if apes are truly as diamond hands as they claim they are, then who's going to "adjust" the price on the ex-date? Food for thought.

>>50251678

This is actually a very good answer and I'm impressed, anon.

Where do you see copper going?

>>50251488
That's fine anon, I'll just read the replies here instead since I don't really know what to ask

>>50251708

There is not a single person on this planet, dead or alive, that can say with 100% certainty what a stock/crypto/security will do tomorrow. If there was such a person, Warren Buffet would shine his shoes every day.

I can speculate that BTC can go lower than 20K if there are more catalysts like LUNA. Also, the algos that control the market are also in crypto- expect a sharp drop in BTC if the market tanks next week on CPI data.

>>50251785
Thanks anon

>>50251750
>This is actually a very good answer and I'm impressed, anon.
Thank you :)

What can we do to protect ourselves in a world where everything is fake.
Should we follow Peters advice to spend everything into inflation on goods and serviced that we need 5-10 years from now aka toothpaste, toilet paper, canned food, you know, things we need that can last for years? If the FED is dead set on crushing inflation, that will definitely wreck a lot of things. Or should we just keep dollars and ride out the storm?
I'm not asking from a financial perspective but more of "end of the world" perspective.

What do you do, and how do you protect yourself and your loved ones.

>>50251770

I see copper being a solid buy around the 3-3.15 area. Economic uncertainty and the war on Ukriane (and by definition tensions around Taiwan with China and US) will continue hammering the price down.

I would honestly prefer investing in copper-related companies rather than copper itself.

>>50251750
I could see the first two of your three point plan occurring but not the latter, most of the people in on GME are diehard asshole contrarians like myself that would refuse to sell a single share for less than truly retarded prices. I see the truly retarded prices coming from brokers getting absolutely dicked when they don't receive the dividend-issued split shares since there's so many people that have direct registered with the transfer agent and will be getting those divvy issued split shares first just based solely on how it all operates. The DTCC gets given the remainder to distribute to brokers and when that ends up not being enough, who picks up the slack? If they try to create fakes to issue then it just creates a truly retarded amount of FTD's to have to resolve and borrowing has been at 100% utilization for 104 days straight at this point with insane fees. This isn't even getting into what happens when loaned out shares get recalled so that the owner receives the divvy issued shares rather than the borrower. It seems to me like it's all been carefully crafted in such a manner that the sheep that's been getting shorn for two years has managed to tie a noose around the neck of the ones doing the shearing, and the rope will be getting yanked soon freeing the sheep. Ultimately I guess we'll just wait and see what happens. I'm heavily invested in it myself, and it's funny you mentioned LUNA since I also have a sizeable position in that and can see it rugging all of crypto in a similar manner to how GME could rug the markets - in both cases, entirely through the hubris and folly and mistakes of the brokers for both respective asset classes and through no fault or criminal activity on the part of those that have invested.

>>50251889
Stack shit that keeps you alive and healthy with your debt-backed fiat currency before it devalues significantly. Maybe keep a small stack of cash or other fiat in the event the crisis ends up being deflationary rather than inflationary. I haven't gone full schizo prepper myself but I've got a healthy supply of lead and lead throwers along with dried goods/water/vitamins/basic medical supplies.

>>50251889

Well, there are 3 perspectives that you can take:

1. The "fake" world continues the way it is, the can is kicked down the road again and again, in which case holding on to cash instead of investing (even in bonds although the yields are garbage) is a really bad idea. Always invest in ETFs, funds or companies that fit your risk profile. There's no point in losing buying power at a rate of 8-9% per year.

2. If you think that the party will stop (I highly doubt we've come to that point yet) and there is a huge recession coming, bonds and even corporate debt are good safe havens for your savings. Although I could argue continuing to DCA into your current investments would yield better results in the long run.

3. If you believe we're heading for an apocalyptic-type economic event, I don't think toothpaste and toilet paper are going to be your biggest concern. Precious metals will be king in such a scenario, along with life-sustaining skills.

If you're into scenario number 3, I suggest hoarding some silver/gold and learning how to cook, provide first aid etc.

>>50251894
>3-3.15 area
That's quite a high bottom compared to previous crashes. Any reason you don't see it go lower?

>>50251363
I’m a poorfag with limited income but want to trade options that actually print. Tired of throwing my hard-earned money into the abyss, is there a mentor or a certain program you could recommend that gives consistent options strategies for people with limited capital?

>>50251363
Is there an individual employee at each market making firm assigned to each individual options trader who decides what and when orders get filled? Like am I playing 1 on 1 against a market maker in a daily basis?

>>50251488
>Ask yourself this- why is the dollar gaining strength when inflation is hitting 40-year highs? Isn't it counterintuitive given that a huge percentage of all dollars were minted in 2020?
such a cheap way to expose your larp as a niggerjew trader or whatever. it's not counterintuitive if you know shit about debt and how the dollar strength is calculated

>>50251921

To be honest the whole stock dividend is going to be a logistical nightmare with such abysmally high short positions for the DTCC, brokers and everyone down the line. We could see wild stuff happening like trading suspensions (as in suspended trading for multiple days), huge swings in volume etc.

I honestly have absolutely no idea how this is going to play out. I have a considerable long position in GME through my personal account that I've been holding since February 2021. In all honesty, I see the funds that are shorting this doing multiple market-breaking maneuvers to get out of their shorts if push comes to shove.

Push has not come to shove yet though. I don't know if the dividend will trigger a squeeze immediately, most probably not. Even if a squeeze is triggered, unfortunately, retail has always gotten the short end of the stick in the markets and this time will be no different. We might see the funds that are long shares and swaps "shake hands" with the shorts at say $1000 per share and call it a day. The longs will slam the offers on 1000$ the shorts will cover and the people who are waiting for the infinity squeeze will be left holding the bag.

>>50252030
>Holding gme for over 1 year
Imagine the smell

>>50252030
That does seem like the most likely scenario, although it'd absolutely get the people behind the company hounded to the ends of the earth by insane people forever which I think makes it unlikely. I guess at that point the only hope for the infinity squeeze would be removing all shares from the DTCC and moving them to blockchain, which would make prices skyrocket as everyone that did insane market-compromising shit to have multi trillion dollar short positions would get blown entirely the fuck out on having their bluff called. Personally I wouldn't be happy with 1k a share and would aim a bit higher than that in even the most cucked scenario you've described, but it'd still be life-changing money. I guess ultimately we'll just have to wait and see how it all shakes out - late august has some huge movements in the markets planned and September is obviously a big month too.

>>50251952

Types of conflict like Ukraine will get settled one way or another, supply bottlenecks will clear out soon enough. Copper doesn't move 20% in a direction per day and in general the 3$ area has been a historic good zone where supply and demand meet.

>>50251960

Get more money first, don't trade options with 5K capital. In fact, don't trade anything until you've read a few books on market principles if you want to be consistently profitable. If you want to get lucky, buy 0 DTE OTM SPY calls every week.

>>50251982

You're most probably "playing" against an algo unless you're trading some low-liquid shit stock.

>>50252003

I asked that question and an anon gave a great answer- what I meant was that there are bigger forces at play with a very particular agenda.

When does the currency war start for real? How powerful will the dollar get?

>>50252093
One last question - do you see ETH going to proof of stake being as big a deal as it seems it will be?

>>50252093
>3$ area has been a historic good zone where supply and demand meet
True, but this is a crash that isn't only fueled by the Ukraine crisis, and commodities have a tendency to draw down during crashes.

>>50252066

My dollar cost for a share of GME is around 50$ so I honestly don't care if it drops any lower, the current NAV of the company is around 40$ per share last time I checked. I've bought GME with money I have absolutely no problem in losing in any way so I'm mostly along for the ride.

>>50252106

The currency war has been going on for decades with only 1 winner and a lot of losers. The question is at the end of the line, what is the winner going to ask from the losers as a prize for winning?

>>50252118

ETH going to proof of stake is definitely a big deal, although I believe that in doing so only the "whales" will truly benefit in the long run. How proof of stake will affect price, I have no idea.

Why are p/e ratios still so high? The ones that I'm interested in still have 30 or 50 p/e's and barely dipped.

Shill us some tickers like this, from on your watchlist. Not that you'd do better than dartmonkey but I'm interested in what you see as valuable.

>>50251785
>Warren Buffet would shine his shoes every day.
said that in the last thread, can't believe i held the whole way down. I'm following the pro advice of "a pro trader takes a trade and doesn't worry about the outcome"

>>50252202

P/E ratios are still high because we're very far away from the fundamental "fair" value of the market. Will the market ever reach that level? We'll have to wait and see although the downward direction is definitely on the right track.

We might get a CPI print of 0.8, FED saying inflation has peaked, then JPow lowering interest rates again because why not, and then the bull market continues.

I won't be shilling anything here, although I'd take a good look at what Shkreli will be posting over at WSB.

I'll be logging off for now, thanks for joining the thread. Might do AMA part 3 next week. Cya.

>>50252254
Thanks for the insight, have a good one

>>50252180
also thanks for showing up anon, any sentiment on the defi space to comment on?

>>50252263

I like defi, a lot. Traditional banks don't like defi. I'm a fan of what banks hate. Because I don't like traditional banks.

Cya!

Hey guaise. I just came in to say, you might want to cool it with all this antisemitism, ok? Thanks.

>>50252285
Question for next thread if I don't manage to join it in time - what DeFi protocols are you interested in, what new defi primitives would you like to see?

>>50251363

> remember thread, was a good read.

Ever felt remorse about any of your trades?
Like, knowing that you ahve fucked up people's lives?
How do you deal with that? Honest question, no judgement.

>>50251948
>>50251941
Thank you