/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>50133920
you guys should really give it a rest. housing prices always crash to "above" the price they "used to be" so its always going up. there's gonna be no firesale unless you're a coding dorkus faggot that makes 140k a year.

>>50133935
the point is, nobody can afford 7% mortgages, but we cryptolads will just oull out cash when cryptos moon, nit requiring mortgages. Instead of 2 mill, we can find a packaged deal of wife, kids, house, dog and car for 800k.

>>50133920
>Housing prices are about to crash as refinancing dry up
Remember there is a lot less speculation in the market, a lot more homeowners and cash buyers. Unleveraged cash buyers can just hold a property and collect rents, and no homeowner is going to sell unless they can afford a new place to move into, which means prices aren't going down even if the demand side slows down.

>>50133967
>wife and kids
why do people with money not realize that they could endlessly fuck the most beautiful, porcelian skinned, east-asian hookers for the rest of their lives, probably in the thousands of qts, with their money, instead of some deteriorating whore wife and parasite, spoiled children?

its so gross and sad that people just default to this faggot picket fence vision of life. i wanna be a cosmpolitan baller slouched in the back of some superclub in bangkok with neon lights everywhere and giggling teen qts in my arms.

you guys are SUCH fucking faggots.

>>50134005
based and teenagerpilled

>>50133935
>dorkus.
140k is still living in poverty.
You're going to be late for your construction shift wagie.

>>50134005
>i wanna be a cosmpolitan baller slouched in the back of some superclub in bangkok with neon lights everywhere and giggling teen qts in my arms.
this is the gayest thing I've ever read in my life

>>50134005
> realize that they could endlessly fuck the most beautiful, porcelian skinned, east-asian hookers for the rest of their lives, probably in the thousands of qts, with their money, instead of some deteriorating whore wife and parasite, spoiled children?

Because nobody cares about sex? I want to go sledding with the kids, build a snowman and come home to a loving wife making turkey roast.

>>50134005
I bet that you think that kissing is also gross

>>50133920
PLS CRASH

>>50133920
prices arent going back down, not by much, if at all. and if you think they will, riddle me this. when was the last time the price of anything dropped by much?

the "value" of houses hasnt increased at all in last 100 years. only the price. and like so many people, the majority of people on this board are confused by basic terms and knowledge. How many of you can correctly define "currency" and "money" and tell me the difference. the price of homes did not increase because the value went up. the price of homes has increased because the fed decided to print a gazillion bux. those dollars are now part of the money supply, and the price of houses (and gas, and groceries, and hydro, and even water and beans) went up to reflect this influx of fiat into the economy. yes increasing mortage rates will "cool" the market, (now it will take a month to sell your home instead of a weekend), but the actual prices arent going to decline much.

you know whats going to go up .... rents. the rents have been controlled for years. but the current rents dont reflect the cost of the house, or the new supply of a gazillion bux. as renters die, move on, leases end etc etc ...and landlords can re-evaulate the rent, rents are going to climb dramatically to reflect the new house prices.

In canada, 38% of people rent, 32% of people own thier house with no mortage, and the remaining 30% have a mortage. many mortages are locked in for years. 32% of people are completely uneffected by mortage rates, and couldnt care less what the "price" of housing is. rent is cheap, and rent is rising, and its gonna go way up.

>>50133992
ASKING prices are already going down.
>>50133935
>>50133992
but perhaps not an incoming crash.
6-8% mortgage will slow the price appreciation.
Or ARMs will increase and a crash could result
years down the line. If the Fed stops buying
MBS then all the MBS laced with an increased
number of ARMs will hit the market and the yield will be much higher( risk premium) further
raising loan rates.
?

>>50133920
Housing prices really don't crash they correct. A 5% decrease is not a crash.

Everyone here is too young to remember 2008.

>>50134335
>ASKING prices are already going down.
going down to what? thats the real question. Going down by 10%. thats fuck all. going down to last winter's prices. I live on vancouver island for instance. housing prices are astronomical. you cannot buy, even a run down shack, for less then 800k .... not even one. not a fuckign cabin. Its no joke.look on realtor(dot)ca. there is not a single house for under 700k on southern vancouver island. the average sell time, even at these ridiculous rates is still two weeks. many properties (ordinary houses on tiny lots) are 800k to 1m.

>>50134288
> the "value" of houses hasnt increased at all in last 100 years. only the price.

In 1945, this guy could afford a large house, 4 kids and a stay at home mum, on a small local branch office bank manager clerk job… no college education even.

>>50134428
Man, the average house price in Munich is 2.5 million euros

>>50134408
i remember. i bought in 2011 a foreclosed property. but see my post above. in the 2008 crash, RENT increased by 22.8% nationally! yeah i know, its counterintuative, when housing crashes, rent rises. what many people dont understand is that when housing crashes because its overinflated, then rents are ussually undervalued, because renting, like housing, has a time buffer, only its a reverse buffer. rents are artificially low when prices are artificially high, and the correction will see housing prices drop, and rent increase ... then the market re-stabilizes.

in fact its low rents that are part in cause of the crash, because its not worth it to carry a high mortage on a rental unit, making landlords want to shed debt. so they offer the rental uits for sale (something Im currently doing). when you cant get at least 4% return on capital for a rental unit, it makes sense to sell the unit.

>>50134288
>many mortages are locked in for years.
most are 5 year so every year 20% have to refinance
> you know whats going to go up .... rents.
rents are set by what the market can support, not by the cost of the landlord's mortgage. This is not how prices are set, at all.

>>50134067
your family only disintegrates if you're a low-will parasite yourself.

>>50134005
Shalom

>>50134530
look man im not saying the world is a fair place, its not. I despise most boomers too. they fucked up everything. they FUBAR'ed the economy, the moral high trust functioning societies we had. my boomer dad left over a million to his fourth wife ( a stupid roastie whore with two bastard children, by different fathers!), and he left me his old work truck and some tools ... thanks dad!
>>50134542
get out of Europe while you still can my friend. your politicians are batshit crazy (not that trudope is better)
>>50134563
>rents are set by what the market can support
yeah. and a market where real estate is artificially high is a market where rent is artificially low. read my post above yours. rent is still catching up to the fact that the fed just printed another gazillion bux last year. commodities like oil and beans almost instantly take on the new price. stocks and bonds take a few months. housing takes a year. rents take a few years.
>>50134563
>most are 5 year so every year 20% have to refinance
the same is true in ways of rent. some renters have been renting for 20 years! and rent increases are controlled by law. as they die, move, or retire, or buy, the landlords re-evaluate the rents (they NEVER go down). like I said above, between 2008 and 2012, while the housing price crashed, rent increased 22.8%.

>>50134742
Chad Dad unironically
pussy is one helluva drug

>>50134742
>yeah. and a market where real estate is artificially high is a market where rent is artificially low.
nope it was high because rates were low.
rates are now higher.
how do you square that equation? house prices fall.
thanks for coming to my Ted talk

>>50133935
>housing prices always crash to "above" the price they "used to be"
Like Bitcoin?

>>50133992
>Unleveraged cash buyers can just hold a property and collect rents
"Cash buyers". That's if they're not leveraged in some other way. One-time cash infusions can save actually productive ventures. So the home goes on the market.

>>50134408
They keep looking at average prices and don't remember that affluent cities kept things afloat with stupid high valuations while suburbs and small towns cratered 50% or more.

>>50133935
smart people say "historically", not "always"

>>50134553
The rent increase already happened. Monetary/fiscal meddling fucked the order of events, some thing proceeded on course (rent increases) while other things got can-kicked (housing crash). If you try to increase rent 20% next year on top of the 20% that happened this year, people just simply won't pay, because they won't be able to. And when crashes get bad enough that people can't recoup the initial price, they'll rent it out and chip in on the mortgage rather than be underwater 6 figures. Both housing and rental prices are about to dive.

>>50134987
rent = wages - (food + energy costs)
guess what has gone up more than wages?
the market cannot support big rent raises.
guess what landlords? it wasn't a one way bet.

>>50134553
Rent increases already happened and at an extreme rate as well. Look at Manhattan/Miami/Vegas. All way over value especially for median income.

>>50134987
>And when crashes get bad enough that people can't recoup the initial price, they'll rent it out and chip in on the mortgage
or if they themselves also lose their job they become a forced seller or are foreclosed on.
At scale this crashes the market.
> oh but blackrock will come in and bail me out
wake the fuck up

>>50134408
No, I remember Call of Duty World at War. National Socialist zombies were revolutionary at the time.

>>50134827
I already squared in above posts, but Ill try to dumb it down for you.

- covid happens, fed prints gazillion bux
-instantly prices of commodities start to rise (oil, beans etc)
-3 months - prices of stocks, bonds rise ... artificial value
- 6 months to a year -- house prices rising dramatically

all these price changes occur, not because a gallon of gas gained "value", but simply because there are more dollars in circulation, "paper dollars" lost value! a house is still a house. a gallon of gas is still a gallon of gas.

when the money printer goes "brrrrrr" ... prices rise (inflation).

but during this time, not only did the government freeze rents, but in many jurisdictions, they said "you dont even have to pay your rent, you cant be evicted" (and landlords absorbed huge losses, buts thats a different discussion.

now renting is a business. the price is set to reflect a certain value. its a numbers game. these costs are set against the rents. one of the costs is the mortage (if any). but the main component is the capital cost. ie a 300k rental unit should rent at approx 1200$ month, otherwise the landlord might as well buy a nice blue chip stock and get his 4% return that way.

so thats brings us to sunny point number two: while housing made gains in capital over last two years, rents were kept down. now the unit that was worth 150k and renting for 700$a month in 2020 is now worth 300k. the landlord is no longer getting his 4% return on capital. he can simply sell the unit, collect his 300k, invest in bank stock, and get his 4%. when he sells of course, this creates one more home owner, and one less renter.
other landlords, when a renter moves out, will simply increase the rent to reflect this appoximate 4% return. so the 300k unit (that was 150k, renting for 700$ in 2020) is now put on rental market for its 4% return, 1200 month. as rents increase, it causes incentives for renters to buy (those that can)

>>50135068
> thinks rents are set by input costs
are you canadian? I live here and I've never met one in ten years who wasn't a retard when it comes to economics.
I don't have time to make you none stupid, if it can even be done.

>>50134066
>3x median household income is poverty
Ok.

>>50134005
Your nose is showing rabbi

>>50134005
t. broken family

>>50134987
>>50135003
wrong. read my post.

its a numbers game. landlords will start dumping rental units that cant return 4% minimum on capital. they will dump until market stabilizes. as housing goes down, rents go up. 2008-2012 is exactly that. 76-82 it happened. 90-93 it happened. its a part of the cycle.

add to that mixture unemployment downpressure, and inflation up pressure. the inflation causing a feedback loop of higher interest rates, meaning less people can afford to buy, and more homeowners forced into foreclosure (so inflation causes a dual pressure system, down and up).

somewhere in the middle of housing prices dropping and rents increasing, the market stabilizes.

>>50135002
geuss what rentoid, you and three of your pals can share a batchelor pad and eat ze bugs ....
no but seriously man. rents will rise, pay will rise, immigration will be checked, unemployment will rise

>>50134005
Israel has no right to exist

>>50133920
>Crypto lads, we can be home owners, just wait a few years.
are you dumb? The price of the house might drop slightly, but with the higher interest rate you're going to pay more.

lol, lmao

>>50135220
>geuss what rentoid,
> rents will rise, less immigration, more unemployment
it must be awful being this stupid, you are like an animal, unaware.

>>50135244
after they fall you refinance it at a lower rate

>>50135141
kek
yeah your right. landowners are absolutely not concerned with money. they just toss a dart at the wall to determine whether they should rent or sell the unit.

>>50135220

>>50135244
not if you're all cash
also at higher rates if wages also rise a bit your debt is eroded more quickly vs stagnant inflation of the past two decades

>>50133920
TWO MORE WEEKS!

>>50135068
No offense but you're a fucking idiot and your effort posts read a whole lot like cope. Rents literally cannot rise beyond what people can afford to pay. 20% yoy increase is not sustainable. It's just not. People can't afford to pay that. They can barely afford to pay rents now. You keep typing these essay length posts to try to reason your way through the cold reality of the situation and it's pathetic.

Rents and home values both are coming down - if not in absolute terms certainly inflation adjusted.

>>50135258
if I have a rental and the roof needs repairing, increasing my total cost of ownership, do I just "put up the rent"?
why wasn't I renting at the max the market could support before?
prices are set by what the market can bear.
I won't continue as educating 4chin is pointless, most people on here are just NPC.

>>50135244
You can refinance an interest rate.

You cannot un-negotiate the 300% markup you paid for a wooden shitstack.

>>50135270
>Rents literally cannot rise beyond what people can afford to pay

This was solved a long time ago. You know what can go up beyond what people can afford? Cost per square ft. There is a reason why apartment have been getting progressively smaller and smaller, especially in large and densely populated cities. If you want to have an idea for just how bad things can get, just look at Hong Kong "cages".

Hispanics rent out $3000 apartments, but share 4 to a room, where each rent a bed in expensive cities where they work.

>>50135338
>bugmen been treated like the insects they truly are
sounds base to me

>>50135338
this is also stupid.
HK has very constrained land available.
the supply we have in North America is far in excess.

>>50135338
That's fucking retarded. Building costs are down y/y and America has way more room to grow than fucking Hong Kong.

>>50135378
Its just a function of when you have a progressively increasing population on a fixed area of land. It is already like that in major metropolitan areas. Where the underclass live in literal cages. While the wealthy can afford the luxury of large open living quarters.

>>50135286
the cost of maintenance is already factored in. 4% return on capital is the goalpost.
>>50135265
>>50135270
>>50135246
really. how many rental units do you own?
>>50135270
>People can't afford to pay that.
thats cope.
>>50135270
>They can barely afford to pay rents now
>>50135270
>your effort posts read a whole lot like cope.


>>50135270
>Rents and home values both are coming down
Tell me about the time "rents went down"

>>50135338
this

I tried to explain it you retards. And as usual some get it, some dont. housing prices will fall, rents will increase, somewhere in the middle it will stabilize. I got other shit to do today besides argue with 80IQ crypto fags on fourfucks. good luck gentlemen.

>>50135429
>>50135420

I'm telling you. This is already the living situation in the major metropolitan area. In areas where lands are abundant, jobs are not. People put up with these living condition, because they hope to make more money.

>>50135456
HK is an extreme example, as usual in 4chin

>>50135469
It is an extreme example. But it illustrate just what people are willing to put up with.

>>50135448
>really. how many rental units do you own?
not enough to make me as desperate as you are to cope

>>50135448
>Mass replying 8pbtid seething landlord telling everyone in the thread people can totally afford another 20% col increase JUST...JUST BECAUSE I SAID SO OK???
Who you trying to convince here tex?

>>50135478
it's weak thinking, lose some weight

>>50135478
>People

>>50133935
Its different this time. People are running out of spending power. This time it's an affordability problem.

>>50135448
>really. how many rental units do you own?
0 because I'm not a retard who bought into the "passive income" grift

>>50134288

Honestly what i've been hoping for is a cooling, I'm just not willing to buy properties that I have to waive inspections and things like that on, which is what you have to do in my area now. Most buyers just accept the risks.

>>50135520
Don't get too salty in the other direction - landlords have been riding high the last decade and a half and it was unironically a great investment. Still is in a lot of ways. But acting like rentoids can sustain constant 10-20% yoy increases is absolutely retarded. We are in the beginning phase of a major recession, interest rates are rising, consumer debt is exploding. Things are going to get tough, very tough for tenants whose landlords think they can infinitely fleece them especially, which will trickle up.

>>50135500

You don't need to rely solely on Hong Kong as an example. Just look at how the lower class live in LA, NYC, SF, etc... and how things are changing in growing cities like Austin as more and more people move there.

>>50134005
I want to be stereotyped. I want to be classified.

The mortgage in my shithole is 10% hello

im long SRS since 15

>>50135733
yeah i'm looking into this, i should hurry up

>>50135148
Welcome to the new debt slave based economy.
Median household income can't afford half the median price of a house.

>>50134005
Degenerates lik you will go on a cross when the revolution comes.

This graph should put it in better perspective of just how significant the housing "crash" of 2008 was on affordability. As long as the US has a national policy of chasing after infinite growth through whatever means possible, I doubt this will change.

Employment drives real estate values: for sale and rent.
Joe Biden is crashing the US economy with no survivors.
Insurance and property taxes are going nowhere but up.
Real estate is going to get smacked hard in 6-12 months if not sooner.
I own 5 properties. All paid for in cash.

>>50134288
T E L E V I S I O N S
computers
automobiles

prices go down for stuff, your are just ignoring things

>>50137236
elastic goods
land: inelastic

>>50133967
>nobody can afford 7% interest
Practically everyone can afford 7% interest rates. It’s still a low rate of interest for a mortgage.
The prices of homes will decline because now when you sell you can only command so much because the money isn’t there easily to justify financing 200k for a house that would have cost much much less before. The demand side is driven by access to credit, if that credit becomes more expensive prices go down. This shit started in the mid 90s it needs to stop.