/biz/ - Business & Finance

It won't lol. People keep coming into the country. Demand for housing will only increase as people keep living longer. Either buy soon or get priced out forever.

For those waiting for a "crash" to buy, do you really think you can outspend Blackrock, the Chinese, and every other soul sucking bank in the world? You're going to rent until you die.

>>49909748
lol
lmao

>>49909808
The thing is Blackrock and the Chinese will just dump the houses when there is something better going on. If your investment stagnates, you dump it and chase the new trend. Why would they keep holding bags?

Pretty soon

Inflation is still high and rising, interest rates are going to at least 5% this year and we're bound for what looks like a pretty severe recession. It's not sustainable that the median wage is 8x less than the cost of a median house. Somethings eventually gonna give

>>49909748
Two more weeks and retards will be forced to slash their asking price by half since the new home inventory is now ath.

>>49909892
Because you can't make more land.

>>49909748
It won't. Higher rates, inflation, and layoffs will shift aggregate demand left, but the housing market will defy economic law. Prices will not drop.

>>49909748
Dunno. People have their mortgages locked in from the ridiculous low it was set to. However people who bought houses to sell them for 300k to 500k more a year later will be rightfully burned.

I'm buying a house over the next month or so. There will not be a crash. Think about it. Everyone has the same attitude as you and me. They want houses to drop so that they can buy a house but they also value houses enough that they want the lifestyle change and are tired of waiting. As soon as prices fall people swoop in because the demand is there. I expect falls in prices a bit but I don't expect large sweeping market failures.

Two more weeks

>>49910094
Since mortgage rates are going up less and less people will actually qualify considering wages are still stagnate. The only thing holding up the bubble is the fact that people are refusing to sell since they can't afford to find another place

>>49909808
This.
Even if immigrants can't afford to buy, the rich here can, and will rent to the immigrants who will probably get some kind of subsidy soon to 'tackle inflation' or whatever.
It's pretty terrifying stuff.

>>49910094
Can someone sort of reply or pick at my thinking. I have about 500k and I make about 8k per month, no house yet and I want to start buying as an investment to rent to poorfags a year from now. It would be wise to do this later than now I'm assuming

>>49910182
I sincerely hope you die in a car accident.

I am a bitch, and a cock sucker.
>>49909748
Benis.

>>49909748
It like magic. Line just goes up forever. Buy now or be priced out forever.

>>49910182
The answer is it depends anon.
Something people are forgetting is that as the economy slows, the construction slows, so future housing supply even more constrained. Interest rates aren't just fucking mortgages, they are by far more impactful on corporate debt in 2022, and it's clear that we are going to experience a pretty substantial corporate debt crisis if they keep these rates high for too long. They aren't going to beat inflation as easily as the talking heads say they will, that means pressure on everything upwards, not downwards.
We need to disconnect this idea that the S&P, housing prices, crypto, art etc is all connected.
It is in fact possible for some assets to go sideways or even up as the S&P500 shits the bed like it did in the 70's.

>>49909748
>When will this shit crash?
It just won't.

>>49909748
maybe if there's a serious recession with very high unemployment. but will YOU buy a house then? have you saved enough cash for your imagined crash where you're the only one ready to scoop up from us 'dummies' who bought in after the 2008 crash. remember when many in your camp said it would go crash again in 2015 because of the bullshit 7 year cycle? lol

>>49910570
That's the thing, ultimately why would somebody that isn't distressed by debt sell and rent?
honestly housing becoming an investment is a fucking disgrace, it's literally critical to any kind of family life.

>>49910384
Interesting take my man.

>>49910594
It should have been addressed decades ago. I just hope our parallel universe equivalents made the right choice. We're in the bad timeline.

>>49910603
>>49910616
Anons, own the fucking land. Don't fucking sell it, don't let your kids sell it, don't let their kids sell it.
The rich are getting richer and they are obsessed with rent-seeking. If for some reason there isn't a massive uprising/revolution to fix this shit, it's gunna be dystopic.
Just own real shit in the real world as well. The rise of digital assets is making me worry that people throw the only money they have (in the face of huge prices for real things/experiences) at crypto/etc.

>>49909899
It's already over 6

>>49910684
Oh for sure. I already have my house/land but my sister doesn't and I'm truly worried her only option at this point is inheriting our parents house once they pass. Shit is grim.

>>49910770
What we need more than anything is means of production.
We need a way for labor to provide value, and we need the system to need the people.
This gross fucking parody of capitalism where the people are completely dependent on the government and are now so confident in their politicians buying their votes that there's talk of expropriation so openly...
Grim for sure.

>>49909748
Never. You should've been born rich.

>>49909748
Inflation, immigrants, less productive people, population increase, all livable areas pretty much settled in around the world.
>good luck

>>49909748
it is crashing, it just takes time
first slow then fast. And remember illiquid assets crash the hardest!

>>49909748
Sorry OP. Its too late.The buy in phase is past. You missed it. Unfortunately if you haven't bought yet you are priced out. Sucks its like this but home ownership is a luxury now.

>>49910094
>As soon as prices fall people swoop in because the demand is there
You are right but this cycle ends when unemployment skyrockets. I too am sitting on a mountain of cash waiting to buy a house once they drop 50%, but I sure as fuck won't spend my savings if I'm unemployed.

>>49909917
Blackrock, State Street nor do any IBs care. First thing is leverage, IBs and funds levered the fuck up to buy RE, when the value of the home goes down, the notional value, there is a point where blackrock will have to sell to avoid a collapse of the financial markets, IBs have gotten themselves into a cash negative position due to low rates and high inflation, it's asking you to use debt.

When I say Blackrock, I mean them, StateStreet, JPM etc. but the other is game theory, Right now RE is accumulating 15-20-30% y/y depends on market, but real estate has vastly outperformed equity and even C bonds for the past year. This will not happen forever, equities will eventually come back, and their expense ratios are much lower than RE, lots of RE will be sold on the open market, essentially selling it down.

>>49909748
It will dump hard when layoffs start. They will begin with it layoffs in California and continue to the rest of the country. By the next year you will see a 20% price decrease.

>>49911073
>By the next year you will see a 20% price decrease.
What you forgot to mention is that from here till next year prices are going to shoot up unabated.

>>49911141
Cope and seethe baggie.

>>49911196
>Cope and seethe baggie.

>it's GoNNa CrAsH

>>49911218
>>49911252
You forget the part when everything changed with covid. We live in a planned economy where the markets are heavily manipulated by the corporate world order.

>>49911417
>You forget the part when everything changed with covid.
>We live in a planned economy where the markets are heavily manipulated by the corporate world order.
This is our collective reality.
What are you going to do about it?

Listen to the professionals sweetie, it's never going down.

>>49909748
Houses are like NFTs, illiquid dumpsters that require $$$ to maintain much like it takes gas to mint NFTs. It'll dump with everything else.

>>49911475
I can't do anything. But they can dump the market just like they pumped it. All I can do is wait for the right time to buy the dip.

>>49910093
You can’t just say that you will never need to move or sell your house cause you locked in that killer interest rate. Things change in life. As time goes on those people with 2% mortgages may have to sell because they are living pay check to pay check and can’t move where they need to without the equity in their current home.

>>49910384
+1 for well thought-out reply

>>49909892
They're never going to dump them. It isn't even about making money, it's about making sure the average person will never own anything ever again.

>>49910684
>If for some reason there isn't a massive uprising/revolution to fix this shit
Sadly, there won’t be. Right-wing media has pitted white trash and niggers/spics against one another, when they should be working together. Classic divide and conquer technique. The entire Murdoch family should be burned alive.

>>49911141
How so? I've been seeing the same shit being advertised to me since January. There's been price drops already and these same shits have been up for months.

>>49912468
>>49912617
We need to go back to a world where people are valuable because they own the means to produce something valuable to their neighbours, and the world.
This monster we've created is horrifying...
Imagine the houses come down, but credit is impossible to get... the rich are going to end up being everybody's landlord.
Houses aren't 'bags'.. they are houses lmfao.
Imagine saying this about the canned food section at the grocery store when they food goes on sale.
We need to stop looking for number to go up, it's destroying society, and if we don't have a revolution to fix this (quiet or violent idc at this point) I fear for humanity.
I mean seriously you want deb-slavery backed by digital infrastructure for your fellow man?

>>49912719
I’m agree 100%. I’m just pessimistic about the prospects of a revolution. And I think that certain individuals among the hyper-wealthy saw early on that the only threat to their immense wealth/power was poorer people coming together, so they sought to divide us. This conversation really belongs on another board, but yes when we see a dissolution of the middle class to the point where regular working-class people can’t afford houses (or housing, period) that is a major problem

>>49911715
Comparing houses to useless NFTs with fuckall function lmao. Absolutel sub room temp IQ take, holy fucking shit. Keep at it bub, ur gonna get far with that brain of urs

>>49909892
>Chinese sells houses
>Biden says "wait a minute jack you aren't funding russia with that money"
>confiscates all the money to use for citizens

>>49912895
Pretty fucking based.

America's economic system is based on "fuck you, got mine" and the have-nots will never unite because they've been brainwashed to hate each other.

Just look at all of the most upvoted shit on plebbit and shitter, it's all meant to demean lower-class right-leaning people.

>>49909899
Why would people sell their houses

>>49912617
>Right-wing media
Imagine being so much of a brainwashed leftist that you think a tiny amount of right wing media is the problem when the majority of media is left wing.

>>49913118
I am a leftist but my friends growing up are almost all right-leaning. I don’t understand why so many leftists can’t stand being challenged on their ideas. That’s why it’s refreshing to come here, even as a basedboy leftist Californian, just to poke the bear and see how the other side thinks.

>>49913118
>>49913270
>>49912895
its the jews. end of

>>49910055
let's take the advice of a boomer who doesn't have the self discipline to stop eating when he's full.

>>49913257
Conservatives have this problem as well, anon. Anyone who disagrees with their team automatically works for the other team. No one can have an opinion without playing for a team anymore. It's sad.

>>49913257
Lefties foment division too. I wouldn’t say it’s the same though… Id say that instead of pitting poor people against one another like right-wing media, the left-wing media guilt-trips left-leaning people into leaning further left, and denouncing any common ground they might have with more-conservative folks.

>>49909892
>housing
>being a trend
The fuck? This isn't your flavor of the month shitcoin. People live and have lived in houses since forever. The demand for that will never stop.

>>49913190
because they can't afford the interest payment or the property tax after losing their job

>>49913298
Kek true and based

>>49913118
if a country full of "fuck you, got mine" people are enslaved and live like dogs, who actually cares?
what is lost?

>>49910270
that screencap is true, but it's not the main reason. the main reason is because of the present value of money. like with bonds, if you raise the interest rate the final value of the home just became a lot more expensive, so the purchasing price today lowers to compensate for that.

>>49913402

>>49913631
0.75 last time, then again next time, then more after that as inflation won't lie down

>>49911073
But who will actually buy a house in that scenario? Potential buyers will be scrambling to find jobs and avoid starvation while living off whatever assets they had saved up to buy a home. Prices vill not go down

>>49913371
Most new homes are locked into 3% interest loans and the unemployment rate would never reach higher enough to cause mass sell offs or last long enough for people to get underwater on their mortgage. Y’all keep saying a crash is coming but the housing supply is too low for that.

>>49912401
Holy cope. You know that a 2% mortgage is probably cheaper than renting the equivalent size apartment right? Lol get fucked rentoid

>>49913726
this happened in 2008, the USA is even less competent now and if possible less moral, why not again? because "regulations"? hah.

Just buy a cheap house in Ukraine

>>49913726
>move because new job/shift of office/need less space
>have to put up on market
>rates are double than when you started
>house goes for 50k less
>you now have to pocket that loss

>>49913791
This isn’t 2008 and in 2008 homes weren't off the market within 5 days of listing or getting bids over 50k on asking. In 2008 anyone could get a mortgage even taxi but now it’s over qualified people and companies with deep pockets getting mortgages.

>>49913906
let's see, before 2008 every fucker like you was telling us it was all genuine demand.

>>49913983
There are literal lines for an open house in my shitty ass city for a strandard single family homes. The supply isn’t there for a crash all of this is cope from millennials.

>>49914043
anecdotes don't mean shit

>>49913906
>last year in september the median listing price was 360k
>this month its 250k-260k

>>49913863
retail always gets fucked. ALWAYS.

>>49914043
In Seattle, the lines are gone - so I'm watching more intently now. Year and two ago, there were huuuuuuuge lines and the realtors wouldn't chat with me at all.

now they size me up, ask how I'm doing and such.

Depressing.

>>49914191
Fenny riots also made the northwest a shithole.
>>49914154
Yep. They lack the resources and time to get good deals.

>>49913790
>rentoid
so.. you WANT us to live in the pod now? im confused

>>49910094
no one is going to have money a year from now to buy houses dude. you're underestimating the sheer drop this economy is going to experience.

prices have come down a good 10% in my area and its taking longer for houses to sell. im also seeing more new listings. this wasn't the case even three months ago. people were getting cash offers 50% above value in my neighborhood.

>>49909808
>It won't
famous last words.

I live in Canada. Our bubble is much worse than US. Up there as the worst in the world alongside Australia.

Prices have already dropped ~15% from ATH. Still well above pre-pandemic levels though and utterly unaffordable. I make 100k and best I can afford is a single bedroom and thats with some big leverage.

However, I know many investors are now in negative equity, negative cashflow situation. This is what leads to bubble bursting.

Contrary to popular belief, typical bubble pop happens when houses get foreclosed on.

This happens not because people lose jobs and can't pay mortgages on their primary residences. People will go to extreme extents to save the house they live in. Instead foreclosures are more common when Investors are losing money every month and are about to get wrecked. They just give up on thier negative equity properties and stop paying mortgages.

Bank of Canada is estimating that Mortgages can jump 40-50%. Overleveraged cucks are about to be wrecked.

>>49909748
If you are waiting for a massive crash it won't happen moron, those whales are already preparing to catch the last dip around 18K and we're heading back again to 30K... I guess EQ sale will be continued after that fucking moment.

>>49909748
Don't wait for this shit to crash because it ain't gonna happen pleb. I've seen lots of micro influencers getting ready for future initial marketing offerings that will be launched by KOLnet before the end of Q2 where bull run can take place like a chad.

Syscon's Network Enhanced Virtual Machine can offer smart contracts that are secured by bitcoin as opposed to a questionable Proof of Stake model.

>>49911715
It is much better to buy some NFTs on metaverse than to buy a house if that's just for an investment, most plebs that are lurking here don't know about it. Even putting some funds for Honeyland's upcoming land minting, will be like owning your own farm too.

>jeez they are crap

Never

>>49909748
soon

get your stacks of cash ready

>>49909748
when you ban chinks

>>49913350
Housing has always gone through normal market cycles, but since it's been made into a typical speculative asset by investors these cycles have become more dramatic. Expect a blow off top.

>>49909899
Just two more weeks

>>49909748
>>49909808
>>49915773
>>49914910
>people can't afford to drive
>people can't afford to eat
>new mortgages already cost more
>economy nose diving
>mass layoffs from pointless jobs
>double digit yearly inflation
>ww3 actually starting

Yeah that definitely sounds like a situation where people are going to be buying houses or even able to afford their mortgage payments regardless of what their rate is.

>>49909748
why don't you just do like eagles or spiders and create a nest in a high place?
>don't pay rent
>have a view of the whole city
>you can eat free food (insects)
or you can be smarter about food and hunt small animals like dogs, qom sometimes has good ideas

>>49909748
It's not going to crash billionaires and corporate investors are parking their cash there

>>49919318
No their not.

>>49913081
how is he supposed to confiscate money from china

The biggest thing is places like Florida where remote workers flocked during covid. If these places aren't careful, which they aren't, they'll face a bubble as WFH ends with stranded workers locked into a mortgage. Good if you're a native and want a house though (and work in an actual labor market).

>>49910182
>>49909808
>>49910055
>all this boomer cope
Kek the mortgage internet defense force is here again.
Guess JPM needed to give you guys some sort of job before permanent layoffs begin.

>>49914727
I hope every Canadian who sat back smugly as home prices rose gets utterly wrecked.
The response to the rise in prices has made me distrust Canadians, fuck them.

>>49914910
just like the whales waiting to buy the Bitcoin dip.
There's someone like you every 5 fucking minutes.

>>49913081
Based biden

Unironically who will own houses once they put us all in pods?

>>49909748
I'm actually convinced they do want the housing market to cool off and will continue to raise interest rates until that happens. I expect the SPX to be in the 2400-2500 level as well.

>>49909748
As long as rental prices keep increasing there's no reason to think the housing market will crash

It's gonna slow down/decline a bit, but the prices are still going to be fucked. Here's the thing no one is willing to accept or talk about in this conversation. The middle class is gone and has been gone for a long time now. The extremes between those who are wealthy and those who are poor as shit continues to get wider and wider. You either make it, or you don't. That's how it is now. I don't like it, but that's how the world has developed with globalization and the central planners of the world.

>>49923815
>As long as rental prices keep increasing
cost of living going up faster than wages

>>49909748
He doesn't know...

>>49923933
As long as people keep paying the higher rent the house prices will be supported

>>49924284
sorry didn't realise you were innumerate.