[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 55 KB, 830x738, 12.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
49857727 No.49857727 [Reply] [Original]

THIS. IS. NO. WHERE. NEAR. THE. 08. CRISIS.

"Hellish winter" - this is the kind of sensationalism that Reddit laps up, based on what? It's just parroting other Doomsday posts and MSM coverage.

Home equity is way above where it was, and even a 20% correction in housing won't put the majority of people into negative equity territory.

Consumer balance sheets are way stronger than that time.

There is no risk of a credit crunch. There's no shortage of liquidity in the banking system (see reverse repo: there's $2tn not being used being stored by the banks overnight)

Household cash reserves significantly higher

Unemployment is 3.6%, it ticked up ever so slightly but is still close to maximum employment. Even a move to 4-5% unemployment is strong by historical standards. It reached 10% at the height of the previous recession.

The financial system is robust, it is not going to collapse. There is not going to be an 08 style banking crisis.

Everyone screaming out the top of their lungs DEPRESSION COMING!!! When the reading was -0.1% lmfaoooo. Yeah next reading might also be slightly negative which would put us in a technical recession

This leads me to what is actually the concerning part: inflation.

However, no sign of wage price spiral. This is good.

A mild recession will be good for inflation. Add that on top of the fact supply chain issues are easing, inventory levels are at record levels, and commodity prices/used vehicles are dropping across the board, there's a reasonable chance of tempering inflation by EOY early next. Especially when comparing to this year's levels, it may even show up as deflation

Consumer sentiment is super low which will self fulfill a decrease in demand, which again, is good for inflation.

However, the fundamentals of the economy are strong.

As soon as inflation tempers and the FED u-turns towards accommodation, the same doomsday prophets coming out the woodworks now will be FOMOing back into the markets at highs.

WAGMI

>> No.49857902

>>49857727
>Supply chain issues easing

Says who?

>Household cash reserves higher

So is debt, and cash reserves do nothing but decrease in value during inflation. Savings and CDs not keeping up w inflation

>Home equity

You are ignoring everyone who bought recently, aka at the top.

>Financial systems robust

Sure, but this isn't a financial crisis like in 08. This is an entirely different crisis and will be compounded by civil unrest.

>> No.49858775

>>49857902
>>49857727
the truth is somewhere in between

now go take your seats, thanks for playing.

>> No.49858893
File: 45 KB, 1167x556, psavert.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
49858893

>>49857727
>Household cash reserves significantly higher
about to destroy roughly 35-50% of this faggot ass post from OP
let's start here

>> No.49858966

>>49857727
>Everyone screaming out the top of their lungs DEPRESSION COMING!!!
recession. the call is for recession. no one has said this, this is a strawman argument. 22Q1 GDP = negative. 22Q2 forecast to be a big fat zero. both will be revised downward.
the most dovish calls, from jeff gundlach and others, still call for recession but not until 2023.

>> No.49859037
File: 71 KB, 1335x799, real-money.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
49859037

>>49857727
>Doomsday posts and MSM coverage.
which is it, chump? the mainstream thinks everything is fine.
>A mild recession will be good for inflation.
they are not mutually exclusive. that's why the 70s stagflation was so painful.
most likely, we are in for a repeat of the 90's into 00's, where a bull run of unprecedented length got people's ideas all bent sideways about reality. and then they ate shit for 3 years.

>> No.49859064
File: 1.15 MB, 1080x1955, ajtfbrrhst491.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
49859064

Great minds think alike!

>> No.49859128
File: 1.36 MB, 984x830, bee.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
49859128

>>49857727
>There is not going to be an 08 style banking crisis.
yep, that's right. now it's an everything bubble. now that we have a 75 basis point policy error, the rate on the short-duration US public debt will trigger austerity, govt shutdowns, and probably QE. there will be no more stimulus payments, though. in fact, taxes may go up, instead. they may have no choice.
in which case, trump 2024, confirmed.

>> No.49859201

Couple of potential bullish catalysts for the next few years:

>China ending Zero Covid policy and getting back to work
>Oil normalizing back to $70
>US electing a Republican congress in 2022 and president in 2024
>Russia either leaving the Ukraine or ending the war through other means

>> No.49859649

>>49857727
>Home equity
Home equity was through the roof before 08
>Consumer balance sheets
Then why is credit card debt rising at historic rates?
>There is no risk of a credit crunch
We had a mini credit crunch last week. Central banks had to step in last week to prevent a crisis.
>Unemployment is 3.6%
Labor force participation still hasn't recovered from the pandemic.
>wage price spiral
Wages are skyrocketing and prices are skyrocketing. That's a pretty good sign.
>supply chain issues are easing
Supply chain was never the reason for inflation. Eggheads thought it was back when they thought inflation was "transitory". Their assement of the cause and duration of inflation have proven to be false. Inflation will worsen, the debt market will collapse, and all other assets along with it.

>> No.49859681

>>49857727
>STOP NOTICING
The post

>> No.49859708

>>49857727
>THIS. IS. NO. WHERE. NEAR. THE. 08. CRISIS.
Indeed, it's many times worse.

>> No.49859871

Sadly there is much pain ahead, dig in boys, and stay safe with your market moves

>> No.49860103

>>49857727
You see, but do not observe.

>> No.49860129

>>49857727
The pain begins tomorrow. Prepare your anus.

>> No.49860177

>>49860129
W-what’s gonna happen anon?

>> No.49860212

>>49860177
nothing. nothing ever happens. haven't you learned that by now?

>> No.49860313

>>49860212
The last two years have arguably broken that trend anon. Things happened.

>> No.49860315
File: 8 KB, 232x217, 16334496213.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
49860315

>>49860129
>>49860177
Reminder that ryoshi also told people to prepare their anuses for tomorrow and be wary of the potential dumps, it's not an oversight to say that the market will be entering the first step towards a recovery, and that always, always starts with a dump.
Whatever you do, do not dump your QOM, BTC or ETH, you can even buy more, because that's just the beginning of the golden bullrun

>> No.49860332

>>49860315
where are people hearing about ryoshi?? is he active on anywhere else?

>> No.49860365

>>49857727
You're right, it's nowhere near 2008. It's not even near 1929

>> No.49860496

>>49857727
Oil reached its peak, if things go back to pre-covid it will rise to 200+ a barrel.
They are trying everything to reduce consumption and delay the inevitable.
You will all die.

>> No.49860996

>>49859064
Sell everything

>> No.49861170

>>49857727
That's a lot of words to say watch for the fed pivot. Which, by the way, every faggot has been saying for weeks.

>> No.49861298

>>49858775
You’re too smart to post on this board, get out.