/biz/ - Business & Finance

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>>49637558
yes
however, the entire world economy is about to shit its pants, majorly - so no one knows how bad things will get this time around. Be careful.

>>49637590
Whenever the weekly RSI goes oversold it's always a cycle bottom

>>49637558
>>49637639
why july 4th though?

>>49637639
Ty!

>>49637670
just a random guess two weeks out. Not perfect, just looking at the big picture

>>49637628
>entire world economy
when will the burgers learn bros...

>>49637639
if you believe btc is going to come back buying now is probably not big of mistake but we are about to face biggest recession in recent history, nobody knows what will happen and if its end of crypto as we know it.

>>49637804
>>49637628
I have to wonder though... seems like every man woman and child is bearish on the economy right now. How much is still left to be priced in? Everything seems pretty oversold...

Here's the S&P500 w/ weekly RSI

>>49637558
NO DONT BUY ITS DONE

You would think that btc should by skyrocketing in these times due to fiat devaluation and inflation,

I dont understand how the price of literally everything is going up except gold and btc, meat, video games, used cars, fucking everything.

There is an old theory that btc is not even going up that its just basically the dollar thats going down, btc is a measure against the dollars strength

>>49637995
I was around 00 and 08
this time around its 1929, 00 and 08 all rolled into one, sprinkled with crypto and an energy/food crisis.

To calm down the markets the fed and every other central bank need to push a 2/3/4% hike immediately or else we'll enter stagflation and deflation. Both are the death of a modern economy.

Hiking that much will crush crypto and equities, pushing bitcoin into Michael Saylors magin call range from which all hell will break loose.

>>49639371
Michael Saylor doesn't have a margin call range

>>49639371
You know I also heard that shit around March 2020 when Bitcoin went to $4k but in fact all the rich people on the teevee were lying to me! Crazy I know

>>49638335
Not exactly, you can't explain the 100x from 2014 bottom to 2017 high against the dollar at tops devaluing 10% during this period.

>>49637558
based, can't wait to slurp at 7k

>>49637995
look at 2008 it went below threshold then to hell. i'd trust the halvening and december top/bottom meme more

>>49639442
My poor naive child.

>>49639871
richfags always think the world is a simulation because their world is a rigged video game while everyone else is a slave

>>49639491
Last time the government bailed evryone out, prologing the fate that we're facing today. It's either going to be kicked down the street further or the band aid will be ripped off

>>49639901
they'll just put more collateral lowering the margin call, one thing for sure is BTC will recover in 5+ years time and this is what Microstrategy is banking on but no idea why they didn't at least sell some BTC at the top

>>49640180
well whenever they figured out they can just get infinite gibs for reasons of "job security" or "muh economy" there's no more organic game anymore. it started in the 80s and 2008 was just the first one that people all got to watch.
yes bottoms are formed when down momentum is at a max. but muh 2008 literally did a bull divergence after things went down another 40%. dont know if this time is different but feel like inflation is more real this time so they will have to break things for another 3-6mo -- which makes me less likely to trust the current low week RSI on US equities

>>49637558
If you identified the levels right and get a confluence of indicator signals, it's not guaranteed obviously, but it's just telling you to pay attention and see if you can make a play. As opposed to nothing at all.

>>49639371
>this time around its 1929, 00 and 08 all rolled into one, sprinkled with crypto and an energy/food crisis.
ngl this reads like bobo euphoria.

00 was tech/web companies with no revenue and ungodly speculative valuations, in contrast to today where the biggest tech companies also have the world's highest revenue streams and PE's are high but nowhere near 00-level ridiculous.
08 was subprime mortgages defaulting and essentially fraudulent activity by the biggest banks that pulled down the entire economy.

I'm just not seeing the same level of catalysts for a collapse. Right now we have elevated PEs from covid-era money printing, and QT + rising rates will absolutely bring that down... but that's just a bear market, not a full on collapse. Am I missing something?

>>49640678

>>49640823
if you are rational about it the real headwind is the reversal of 40 years of globalization and the adjustment process is unknown.
i agree with you i dont think it's that bad comparing to the catalysts from the previous 2 major recession, especially the central banks are keep willing to play with the numbers to keep nominal growth up. but yes I think real growth will be negative for the next decade or two because demographics and such

>>49640678
maybe AI and the great reset will make the game much harder

>>49639871
true. But even buying at any oversold point late 2008 - early 2009 was still very profitable a year later.

>>49641005
only invest in something you believe in
>believing in the US
trailing stop loss when you're in profit
hold/dca when you aren't

>>49641005
yes for sure from a medium-longer investment horizon. hell buying now is starting to look like a good entry. although with some mind gears churning i'd willing to be on a lower price. just trying to find a better entry overall

>>49641262
this is my schizo chart
the bitcoin cycle is just too perfect in a way. always resolutions in Q4, if not Dec

>>49641394
explain to semi-brainlet that doesn't fuck with TA, we'll be back to 30k around Dec?

>>49640967
>1875
not bad, candles turned to lines because the data makes them looked fucked up in the 20's. imagine jumping out of a window back then because you didn't have a computer

>>49641464
no idea im just filling in the future blank with the price action from 2019. crypto/btc price just jerks up and down a lot for (((them))) to extract max amount of money.
my belief is at least:
we wont find the generational bottom right now, will probably relief up to 30k this summer
bottom probably low 10k's, for another traditional ~-85% down
if long term recession world goes to hell then obviously these can just become useless schizo lines
in the end this is based on the very regular 3-3.5y bull/1y bear cycle from 2011 to today. something something bitcoin halvening might drive this but no empirical proof

>>49641464
oh i think you saw the 30k horizontal line. no definitely not that for this december.
i'm predicting a november/dec bottom around 10-13k
no im not a blind TA fag this contributes to just 1 out of a few things i think about. but it's good to be aware of trends because the whales use schizo TA too

>>49641394
the plebbit /economics admin who wrote the smart screed against tether claims it will collapse around 20k. seems like they're making a play for usdc to come out on top to me (usdt/usd, usdc/usdt). but i'm no expert. wondering if they'll test 12k

Everything is a nothingburger. The fed was just retarded and kept the interest rate to 0% (zero) for more than it should.

Whoever says "it's worse than 1929" just opened a short and tried to not be liquidated in the next few hours.

>>49641878
might be a good bottom indicator when tether gets too off. but i dont know in my experience over the years tether just got stronger and stronger. it seems to be a tool of the inner inner core of crypto so if it goes the whole thing goes
i think the difference now is just usdt = asia/island money vs usdc "clean" US/bank money. there's a fake biggie vs. 2pac thing here but in the end it's the same circle one level up

i see you have the log channels up. i have another screen open that shows the same thing. over the years i switched to just log straight lines because the whales reverse big bottoms in straight line aesthetics (on log scaled chart ofc)

>>49642040
seems like as a new sma length is drawn (increment ~100, 1440 aint just a river in egypt) they almost always test it, although sometimes if the bull lasts long enough they test new lines further down

>>49642050
maybe. i read jp morgan wants to tokenize a trillion dollars of assets with blackrock (see ie lofty.ai) i think in order to do that first the funny money needs to be reigned in. you could be right though

>>49641730
>>49641819
based, thank you fren. i have been here since late 2019 and seems like i'm just now figuring it out. both in the green from buys back then yet in the red from buying this year, at the moment. i agree with your overall market assessment as well

>>49637764
>only the American economy is shitting the bed
what are you even trying to say

>>49642040
check out Fisher for a better MACD. my OTC dealer uses it so they go on a slightly different pace as the plebs
i was calling 200wma all this time but we got here too quickly so naturally 300/400 is in play

>>49642165
gl anon i think people are too bipolar about TA on this board. it's just a tool and using some is better than no tool at all

>>49642235
>fisher
>am/fm analysis
based. now we're getting somewhere, dr ehlers

heres my snowflake macd i been experimenting with

>>49642411
i use this ukranian autist's suite i found on twatter. i think the divergence dots functions similarly to your more granulated macd
for real bottom sniping i think you need more flow data. i cant share all my secret juices on a basket weaving forum ;)

>>49637558
unfortunately I think we have a little further to go, given macro conditions. The bears here are unnecessarily assholes and delusional in many ways, but one thing they're right about is that BTC has closely followed a very predictable upward trend ONLY during a legendary wider-market bull run of the past decade where the Federal Reserve was printing trillions in QE (which went straight into the markets) and keeping interest rates near zero. This is the first time BTC has been tested in a bear market with brutal tightening measures, and it's liable to break out of the trend from the past 12 years and into a new one.

Stepn 6

>>49642601
this fabled extreme bear market of the ages, hasn't proved that it will even continue, it has already flash dumped a lot of securities without considerable panic.
the only real problem that was proven to exist is the fed being retarded and keeping the interest rate to 0 for more than it should.
that's objectively a technicality even if it's painful for a while (meaning: the actual businesses aren't long-term affected).

>>49640678
>3months
>September
What a coincidence that would be.

>>49643268
imagine right before midterm elections

>>49643456
>>49643268
>>49642793
>>49642609
>>49642601
https://pastebin.com/pgUDWYQL

>>49640272
>It's either going to be kicked down the street further or the band aid will be ripped off
Gee, I wonder which one they will pick. All this bear market shit is such obvious fud. The funny thing is I knew this would happen before we went into the real parabola of this cycle. Between the covid crash in 2020, GME, the Ukraine, etc. It was clear they were pulling out all the stops to mindfuck retail every step of the way. Anyone who's even remotely redpilled could've predicted some serious fireworks going into this, and now here we are.

>>49637628
The markets have already priced in the next couple years, considering they've shit the bed while we were still in brrrr mode.

>>49643795
>Markets are efficient because they JUST are, OKAY? OKAY?