/biz/ - Business & Finance

Is there any public sources of data on corporate bond valuations that update regularly?

>>49571836
Its doing the opposite of rugging though. Its mooning :D

>>49571977

yield mooning=existing bonds rugging

>>49571977
yield up -> prices down

>>49571836
YIELD CURVE CONTROL

BTC 300K EOY 2023
ETH 20K EOY 2023
LTC 2K EOY 2023
XMR 7K EOY 2023
LINK 1000 EOY 2023

We are all gonna make it.

>>49572000
>>49572003
no fun nerds

>>49571836
What is a recession/depression going to look like now with a greater wealth disparity and increased inflation… when you’ve got every other boomer owning multiple properties, driving a Tesla/Mustang, going on cruises, and having specialist medical care subsides. While young people struggle to find work and have to decide between eating anything other than g0ysl0p or defaulting on mortgages. There are greater disparities in other groups yes, but this will be a very visible one. I think there will be advertising campaigns telling young people to work harder and shoulder responsibility (accept tough times) like the last generation did.

Housing is going to nuke harder than 2008 and no one expects it

>>49571836
>Treasures might preform better than realestate investing soon

My body is not ready.

>>49572104

BUT THEY SAID HOUSING NEVER GOES DOWN AND TO BUY NOW OR BE LOCKED OUT FOREVER AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>49572104
lol, no, rents are going up so yield on houses is going up plus inventory is at an all time low.

This is why keynsians are seething unlike 2008 inflation is now happening on things that would get them guillotined if it becomes too long.

Only real solution will be a controlled wage spiral / ycc, but those depending on us foood outside of burgerland will probably suffer a lot.

>>49572145
>inventory is at an all time low.
Old news

>>49572118
I bought in summer 2019, am I safe? It was probably a few months after I bought I started noticing " holy shit house prices are going up"

>>49572104
Have a quarter million in dollars ready for a house. Stop it, anon, I can only get so erect.

>>49572174
If you live in it you're fine. If you're Blackstone you'll probably dump RE for treasures. It just means to an investor RE is a less attractive investment vs Treasures.

it's really funny that stocks and treasury bond funds have both declined hard in 2022. funny because they were inversely correlated for 39 years, causing 3x stock-bond rebalanced quarterly portfolios like 55/45 UPRO/TMF to become hugely popular in 2019, only for those portfolios to fail 2 years later.

a strategy would have beaten the index for 39 years, people finally start using it, and it fails 2 years after they start. dont chase past winners if they involved either leverage (upro/tmf) or hype (arkk)

>>49572145

I think a lot of inventory will open up when no one has jobs and all the heloc and flipper assholes start having to pay lots of money to hold their investment properties

>>49572174

As long as your income is stable and you're not already house poor you're fine. Inflation is going to fucking hurt and you may have to tighten your belt and you may have to have a few years of your house underwater...buuuut as long as you have stable income and you're not already stretched thin now you should make it.

>>49571836
>inflation at 8%
>3.2% yield
Isn't that a guaranteed loss? Why would anyone buy such a bond?

>>49572477
a housing crash would be so weird because of the number of people waiting with cash on the sidelines. idk what it would even look like

>>49572145
>rents are going up so houses are going up and inventory is at an all time low
>all while people can barely afford costs of living and hires are starting to freeze
WHERE HAVE I HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE

>>49572534
That cash is going to start drying up with the cost of everything amd lay offs.

>>49571836
>Us is collapsing
>buy usd

>>49572526
people dont buy bonds for moonshots at getting rich. theyre already financially secure and want to protect their retirement money.

and it's better to be at +3% in nominal terms than -64%. especially if its your retirement fund and youre in your 50s or 60s. you wouldnt be able to sleep watching it go up or down by 60%

>>49572582
The great depression had overproduction retard, not scarcity, it was the opposite of what currently is going on.

The us had massive housing construction and massive industrial overproduction before the 1929 crash, the crash happened because there were so much houses, cars, electrodomestics and other stuff that factories had to close due to lack of demand which caused a negative loop.

>>49572587
i agree but i still see daily threads about having 250k ready for the impeding housing crash.

you're right that its really tricky to hold that in cash for more than a year. maybe people will start buying short term bonds with their planned down payment money

>>49572534
Blackrock going bankrupt and millions of foreclosures from ARM loans is what it would look like… while banks foreclose and those “cash buyers” get to wait for their FDIC to pay their money back… except they didn’t read the fine print that says the insurance company has 100 years to pay back their lost accounts

>>49572526
Soon only losing 4.8% a year will be an attractive investment

>>49572604
Why not buy TIPS then? Isn't the yield roughly equal to inflation?

was shitbond anon right?

>>49572587
>That cash is going to start drying up
the jew fears the DEEN hoarder

>>49572015

lol the crypto market is crashing.

>>49572631
There was one piece of supply that got fucked.. the dust bowl caused millions of farms to go bust over night

>>49572086
Poor and hungry tyrone gonna murder boomers and forcibly take over their house.

It will be awesome.

>>49572534

They will make you only accept digital crypto soon to buy a house. XRP.

The great reset is here.

>>49572145
and who's gonna be able to afford those rents, anon?

>tyrone, carlos and billybob decides to just not pay and force you 6months + eviction
>they destroy your place out of anger at the end
>repeat a few million times due to economy being down the shitter

ayyy

>>49572694
Based archivist

>>49572641

They will probably force people to digital currency (XRP). Great reset is here. Cash will be gone soon. Klaus: You will own nothing and be happy.

>>49572793

It will also make homelessness and vagrancy skyrocket. If rent is so high you can't afford it why work full time to be homeless when you can be homeless for free?

>>49572145
>inventory is at an all time low
Huh, really activates the almonds.
Seeing as you're full of shit, I can't wait to buy boomer property bags for pennies on the dollar.

>>49572793
>and who's gonna be able to afford those rents, anon?

Nobody

>tyrone, carlos and billybob decides to just not pay and force you 6months + eviction
>they destroy your place out of anger at the end
>repeat a few million times due to economy being down the shitter

You miss the point there is more demand for housing than housing, it does not matter of people pay up or not price goes up as someone will always bid a little higher.

This ends in a few different ways

1_Commie revolution

2_Wage spiral (long term this will need a return to roosveltianism or peronism style social order to cope with class conflict due to wage spirals not being equal in every industry)

3_Deflationary collapse


Both 1 & 3 are very bad and will end up with at least 2 or 3 billion people dead from the usa inflating the usd and destroying international trade routes due to cost.

2 is also pretty bad but with asia getting old the usa will need to reindustrialize anyway so going back to a pre 1971 mode of operation is not that bad it's just that the switch to that mode of social order is conflictive and inflationary as hell at first.

>>49572534
How much of that "cash" is actually cash sitting in a savings account vs. how much of that cash is HELOCs or stocks waiting to be cashed out? The former is real and will be there to buy the dip, that latter will not.

>>49572912
>new housing

Not relevant, what matter is existing stock, publications of housing have been going down with no survivors

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS

The USA will longer exist by the end of the year at this rate

>>49571836
Savings accounts bros... we are healing

>>49572134
General investing rule. If normies are panic buying something then you avoid buying it.

>>49572670
I bonds are based

>>49572534
People said the exact same thing in 2007. Everyone was waiting with cash to buy in, but once people started losing their jobs and homes were being foreclosed on, peoples priorities changed

>>49572145
im going to remember this retard in a couple months

for non retards theyre trying to dumb 9 trillion in MBS (20% of all US housing value) and nobody is buying

>>49573122

This. lol lmao.

>>49572015
yeah, make it to the grocery store to buy a $1,000 loaf of bread.

>>49572631
>raise taxes for the sole purpose of balancing the budget even though debt to gdp is extremely low
What the fuck were they thinking?

>>49572286
do you know what an unbelievable important sentence you have in your post?

Isn't this what heckin' mannarino warned us about?

The slurp window is rapidly closing as dollars available to slurp up all the assets gradually get pried from retail retards’ hands in three basic forms:

1. Job losses (hasn’t happened yet, only really starting in tech sector)
2. Rising inflation on basic goods and services necessary for survival
3. Crashing equity markets

All three pry away at the potential for retail retards to stack cash. Someone might have 100k in cash stowed away today, but suddenly they lose their job and their “retirement” portfolio is down 40%, or also costs them 15% more per month to meet basic ends meet. Their rent goes up, their “stock options” go to zero, they don’t get a yearly bonus. They start digging into the cash fund to feed, shelter, clothe, and provide for their family and suddenly they’ve been priced out of the great slurping event.

If you can stay cash solvent long enough to slurp the bottom you will make it. My strategy is to live at home and get two separate jobs in distinct enough industries that the odds of both going under in a recession is low. You just have to stay cash solvent, it’s extremely difficult to do with all of this inflation, but you have to go above and beyond the normalfaggots if you want to be richer than them.

THEY FUCKING TOLD ME THAT US TREASURIES ARE THE SAFEST FORM OF INVESTMENT. THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE MY SAFE PORTFOLIO NOT A HIGH VOL SHIT SHOW. AAAAAHHHHHHHHH

>>49573989
If you haven't realized that market crashes are intentional yet then you belong over at reddit.

>>49574212
midwit

>>49572641
>i still see daily threads about having 250k ready for the impeding housing crash
that's either simple demoralization or 200iq bulls fudding the housing bears
assume that someone with a lot of money looking to spend it on an asset won't be trying to pump that asset on 4chan before buying

>>49572931
These theories are exactly what is happening today.

>>49574289
You don't know what that word means, midwit.

>>49572534
Nobody was in cash you retard. It was all paper value in assets which have been dropping like mad. People were selling their home and buying another one because jobs were open everywhere and boomers were taking early retirements, and investors were degen leverage stringing rental properties together. All of that is stopping on a dime. Suddenly retired boomers have less as even low risk retirement funds have dropped several percent, jobs are already becoming scarcer, and falling home values are forcing investors to be more cautious and cover margin. The inflation was all caused by zero percent interest and now the tap is shut off because the fed has realized it was a dumb fuck idea.

>>49572534
We're talking about a situation where 35%+ of currently employed Americans lose their jobs practically overnight.
All the potential homebuyers with their funds in stocks/bonds/indexes/ETF's/Mutuals/401k's get wiped the fuck out.

Anyone who isn't cash in hand doesnt get a home, except for the VA loan eligible (me) provided the whole country hasnt collapsed - they get to pay 15% mortgage rates but at least the 400k shithouse months ago plummeted down to 120K.

Boomers get wiped out as well, retirement/401k/pension/SS checks stop coming and they are the first to get laid off in any working environment.

>>49572534
he says big money is still buying
https://youtu.be/DmK0UZjCWgM

>>49572534
most of them are reliant on access to other peoples capital which will dry up fast when the shit hits the fan

>>49573799

>>49571977

Retard.

>>49573989
Mate, you might wanna over to /pol/, they'll tell you a thing or two about this tiny little group of highly influential people that, since at least 1913, have been doing this on purpose in the USA and now most of the world.

>>49572015
God i wish

>>49572104
Wrong.
Everybody is preparing for 2008
We're really going to get the japanese lost decades

>>49574901
well not wrong actually re-reading what you said

>>49574653
That's a pretty juvenile take though. Money spent on land & property goes from flexible to inflexible - liquid to illiquid.
Even if alot of their accounts tank or even go bye bye, the valuation of their land and property stays the same, esp considering tax (value) assessments being reflected on the books would take years and accumulated depreciation on physical property can be totally ommitted -- from GAAP and SEC/IRS accepted alternates - and they can overestimate their land value practically scot free before a major assessment hits. Even better rent can be reflected as pure profit and get cooked.

We're talking about an asset class that maintains its theoritical value for very long periods of time. Hedge funds rushing into property = greater safety net through a market crash - because at the end of the day it's all about AUM and getting enough suckers to trust them with their money

>>49573082
No you are't! The bank will do, what Celsius just did, they have done it before!

>>49574938
TO further reinforce the point, they buy an 87 home parcel, within a certain time window after a crash they can sell 86 of the homes, reflect that they own 87 homes on their 10-K or equivalent - esp if they still own the sidewalks/streets, to include the acreage.....

For YEARS

>>49571836
/biz/bros help me to understand

yields going up mean that bonds that were already created are worth less because their yield is lower,right?

>>49574938
yeah, he says that too that Blackrock etc. aren't gonna sell, not seeing the contradiction here

>>49574901
>>49575027
Japan used YCC to stop deflation and allow them to lower interest rates.
IE what it's supposed to be used for.

The Fed using it in a high inflationary environment with low interest rates means they are literally out of options and its the last can they can kick. It's either going to cause a total economic and governmental collapse, or its going to cause the greatest deflationary surge in history - which will result in unemployment over 50% (of the currently employed) anyway and the collapse could still probably happen

>>49575027
Yields going up means the value and cost of long term bonds goes through the roof.

YCC means a central bank buys up (and sells) long term bond instruments constantly to control the yield. It has the effect of raising the rate of short term bonds however.

>>49572180
so does raj, the 22 year old working at a tech company that got 50k sign on bonus and was making 50/hr on internships since he was 18.

>>49575143
They can sell 99 homes out of 100.

Retain 1 home and the sidewalk/streets

And keep 100 homes on their books all they have to do is time sales around quarterly (really yearly) SEC/IRS report deadlines.

And even when the books finally reflect 1 home owned (more than 1 calendar year) they can retain the entire acreage of the entire development because they own the publicly accessible streets/sidewalks/parks for a much longer period of time.

It's not about selling, it's all about legal loopholes to cook their books and cook their AUM, and ultimately survive a crash/recession/depression

Rent is even crazier in terms of how far you can cook which is why they are all hot for apt complexes, and maintenance costs can be cooked as well. We're talking about financial institutions will millions of line items here.

>>49575206
Are you saying it's unironically over? What do we do? Prepare for Mad Max?

>>49572015
>xmr 7k
im cumming just thinking about it

>>49575027
> bonds that were already created are worth less because their yield is lower,right?
just because newly issued bonds yield higher does not mean that already existing bonds decrease in value, it still has the same $ value with the yield according to its issue date
at least this makes sense to me

>>49575143
>>49575341
It gets even more insiduous when you realize that tax assessors from local/county/city governments are going to be in no rush whatsoever to reflect a 50% drop in home/land value because that would mean less taxes.
The house could be 550k today, 120k after the crash/housing collapse - but still getting assessed at over 400k - For YEARS. And its even easier because it's trivial and practically legal to bribe low tier public officials nowadays

>>49575364
Look at it like this
Fed is blindfolded and dropped in a room with 10 doors out.

2 of them mean mad max or balkanization

2 of them are 3-5 year recessions

6 of them are 10yr or more full blown depressions - the greatest bear market in a century tier - which carry the risk of mad max anyway

>>49573025
> What is a lagging indicator?
The FED is raising interest rates and implementing QT so that Core CPI stops growing. What do you think is going to happen to housing stock when people no longer qualify for mortgages and people start getting laid off?

>>49575497
So long $FOOD and $WATER?

>>49575526
$AMMO

>>49575539
What's your timeline, fren? How long've we got and how long will it last?

>>49575517
>QT + YCC

Just fuck my shit up senpai

>>49575575
10 years

A depression and wide scale default is preferable to the chaos of realized and actualized hyperinflation (ie don't open any doors I'm dying in this goddamned room tier)

>>49575652
10yrs it will last.

You only have until Q4
You know the months

>>49574958
They changed the regulatory requirements since 2008 and the banking sector has to hold a metric shitton of HQLA

I think it is around 5 trillion USD liquid assets. So when something breaks this time the banks will probably hold. And that is what is interesting to me. We have had 6 months of a vicious downturn and wealth destruction and no big hedge fund or institution has gone bust. That seems almost impossible.

>>49575577
YCC is not coming anytime soon, its going to arrive when we're at the depths of a great deppression and all retail has been wiped out. The financial markets needs to freeze up before that happens, we're a long way from that.

>>49575681
Why Q4? I thought OP would mean debt market collapse and the beginning of the end as we speak. Was crashing the economy part of their plan?

>>49575712
>food shortages/massive price hikes on the way due to fertilizer shortage
>energy will keep skyrocketing
yeah, we're heading to ycc land sooner than you think

>>49575712
>...He said, as the yields just spiked, contrary to his cookie cutter understanding of economics...

What is a yield spike leading to a uncontrolled yield surge in a high inflation low rate environment? for $200 Alex

>>49575761
What if the Ukraine war is settled soon? Wind is beginning the blow in that direction from what I can tell.

>>49572104
why do you think so?

>>49572000
>>49572003

r/iamverysmart

>>49575867
go back, seriously go fucking back right now. fuck you.

>>49575822
planting season is all fucked up, and even if there's a peace deal it's not a linear return to normal

>>49575718
Beginning? Sure

Actual market crash/implosion? Q4
It's always Q4 and it's always in the 2 month window.

The fiscal year ends

Shit is submitted to the SEC & IRS

Yearlies get published

Losses exceed profits

Investors panic

And markets fall

>>49575395
>it still has the same $ value with the yield according to its issue date

but wouldn't people sell those bonds in order to buy newly issued ones with higher yields,which would dump the value of those older bonds?

>>49575867
I wish I could beat you to death with my bare hands until you gargle on the blood dripping from my knuckles wearing thin across your stupid face

All you had to do was not inject yourself with SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan variant spike protein

>>49575395
You're retarded

>>49575822
I think Russia is beginning to realize the West is writing checks that its ass can't cash and is crashing the Petrodollar, with no survivors.
Slow and steady wins the war

>>49575709
Yep, work for a bank. He was not even worried and trying to speed up planning out possible acquisitions.

YCC is doomer talk. Rock boomers who think their rocks are going to go up in value. Shinny rocks are going to crash along with everything else in the coming deflationary event. YCC will not come.

>>49575761
CORE CPI is growth is slowing, we're far from YCC. Energy will crash along with everything else.

>>49575806
That is not YCC retard

>>49575932
No

Higher yields = the value of the bonds they hold skyrockets. The effect multiplies the longer the instrument. If yields surge on long term instruments a single 30 year note is going to be millionaire tier

>>49573236
what happens when the MBS goes bidless? what goes bust?

>>49576205
Nothing you have said explains the recent yield spike in 2yr T-rate

Or 1yr, 30yr and 20yr going from sub 1% in Jan 22 to over 3% on such a small increase in interest rates. We're not even at 2% yet FFS

Something is deeply fucking wrong with the bond market, and a lot of it probably has something to do with the extreme bias towards reverse repo market activity over the repo market

I never understood putting money into bonds, when real interest rates have been negative for years. It's a guaranteed loss.
I guess it's just big corps and institutional investors who have so much cash that's all they can do.

>>49576257
Envison a shitcoin. What happens when noone buys 20% of the supply of all U.S. housing? Not a single person.

>>49576495
Nothing is wrong with the treasury yield. Its pricing in interest rate increases like it has always done.

>>49576205
>YCC is doomer talk. Rock boomers who think their rocks are going to go up in value. Shinny rocks are going to crash along with everything else in the coming deflationary event. YCC will not come.

actually true. people haven't been paying attention. FED policy is biased.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/fed-trump-right-all-along

>>49572145
>plus inventory is at an all time low.

1.6m house starts 2021 alone
1.3m house starts 2020 alone

1.7m house starts 2022 BY MAY

We are already OVER the 20 year peak in house start record set in 2005 of 2.07m house starts

Motherfuckers are building homes and everyone is priced out already

>>49576775
Probably how many suckers they could rake in with low rates while commoditizing the mortgage into MBS

>>49576729
starts != finished home ready to be bought on the market
the ONLY thing that matters is active inventory on the market, and we are still at all time lows
the crash is coming for real estate, but not until atleast 2026 when inventories recover

>>49576864
How long do you think it takes a big builder firm like D.R. Horton to finish a home?

I've seen whole cookie cutter apartment buildings finished in 3 months, the whole 100 rental unit complex (x10 apt bldg) finished in under a calendar year

>>49572145
We will sell them cheap food.

>>49576864
>>49577018

To elaborate there is carryover from previous fiscal years obv, but 2021 had 1.6m house starts and 1.2m completions.
We'll be over 2.1m in 2022 and be in the rough region of 1.8m completions

>>49572145
>plus inventory is at an all time low.
wasn't this literally last year? doesn't this mean that they're now at overcapacity since they rushed to oversupply market before building materials went through the roof? feels like it's a deadlock and the first one to give will collapse everything

>>49574127
>You just have to stay cash solvent,
This is why I'm staying at my current job and waiting for the payrises rather than chase salaries elsewhere. When the shit hits the fan, I don't want to be the new guy HR is looking to cut.

>>49576864
Low supply doesn't mean price won't go down, if anything it means the price is more volatile since there the price of a few houses will dictate the value of all the houses in an area. Job layoffs and harder mortgage is going to make demand fall of a cliff

>>49572694
Damn. I remember reading Blackrock was investing heavily in chinese real estate, and selling bonds to the FED, during the whole evergrande stuff

Syscon just hit Lunar Crush's number one of recent with more people curious about what is being built than ever before. The company has proven resilience in ALL market conditions over the years. It’s here to stay.

>>49578185
lmao marketing agencies are still being paid to shill memecoins like this one

>>49572015
Not a chance. The fed cant lower rates and get inflation under control. The fed has inflation written into its founding mandate. They have made it clear that inflation is their priority and everything else is secondary.

>>49579631
They will have to once unenemployment skyrockets.

>>49579631
Raising rates will only increase the cost of food and houses. Is the plan to make the country homeless and hungry? Things like energy is external and raising rates will do nothing to change it.

>>49579631
>He actually believes the FED cares about inflation
The FED cares about ONE thing, and that is to keep the economy afloat, or in other words, to avoid mass unemployment.
There are 2 options:
#1: 10% inflation for 2 years: People will be pissed for sure, but, if they remain employed, they will manage to survive fairly easy.
#2: No inflation, but the economy is absolutely JUSTed, resulting in a lot of people losing their jobs: People will be furious and serious civil unrest is very likely to occur
What do you think is more appealing to (((them)))?

>>49575539
I was believing your comments until this.
You are just a sub 80 IQ doomer. Did you buy toilet paper the other day?

>>49572015
Holy cope

>>49583163
YIELD
CURVE
CONTROL

>>49579631
They will have to buy bonds with brrrrrrr or default.

>Create massive bubble with low interest rates
>People don't want to have their savings evaporated by inflation
>Invest money in assets and some even took cheap debt to buy more assets
>Create extreme asset bubble via cheap money policy through an entire business cycle avoiding necessary recessions along the way
>Enter into a recession while inflation is sky high and raise rates throughout
>People already struggling because of the massive inflation are just living to work so they can pay extra to work
>massive rugpull when 95% of the population is at its most financially vulnerable

Problem, Reaction Solution. This is the Great Reset as others have put it. People will beg for daddy government (A global one now) to keep them afloat and will gladly exchange their liberties for such.

>>49572134
Still true