/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49542830
eli5?

>>49542870
No one wants to buy people's mortgages, mortgage offers and rates will be fucked.

>>49542870
Housing go pooppoo peepee

post a scantily clad women next time and maybe I will bother reading your post

>CASSANDRA B.C.
>MICHAEL BURRY!!!!!!!!

>>49542830

>>49542870
>eli5
Mommy and Daddy are going to go live in a trailer down by the river, you get tongo to your forever home in the country

>>49542830
Why is everybody shitting their pants over the CPI. It was mainly scewed by energy and food products which everybody already knew went up massively and the war in Ukraine won't last forever. Everybody acts like this came out of nowhere.

>>49542830
fuck this nigger

>>49542946
>war in Ukraine won't last forever.
It could last like 5-10 years though.

>>49542990
nah

>>49542946
>War of Ukraine won't last forever
It probably will
At least until next year

America can't capitulate and call it a lost cause because it would mean failure of force projection which upholds the American Dollar
Russia won't capitulate because it knows if it backs off, they'll turn into yugioslavia with infighting

This will last until the last hohol, simple as.
And it will only get worse
Russia typically begins to project force and make moves when the winds are cold

>>49542908

That potato does have an endearing smile.

>>49542946
>war in Ukraine won't last forever
>>49543050
Wrong
This (((war))) has nothing to do with power. It’s a fucking casino for (((them))) to make money. Check out the oil price and the war stocks. Also, war ntfs were pretty good sheckle swiping scheme

>>49542830

What the fuck does mean anons?

>>49542830
This is why you buy what you can afford. They call it a mortgage but a loan is a loan.

>>49543888
New housing loans just went way up, and now no one can buy houses at these price, so housing market goes way down.

>>49544021

wtf. housing market can't crash. it can't.

>>49543888
Inflation won't be stopped by rate hikes. The FED will keep increasing though, resulting in a world where all assets drop in USD terms, but the basic costs of living keep rising indefinitively.
In short, you will own nothing, but you won't be happy.

>>49542946
Ride the Bus! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdr8OBQns3g

>>49544042
Keep dreaming the dream!

>cassandra
is this faggot a trannie or just larping as one to draw attention

>>49542830
Get ready for Monday morning.

>>49544121
It's a larp as someone blessed to see the future but cursed to have nobody believe their premonitions. Funny considering he's predicted 20 of the last 2 crashes

How bad are things going to get over the next year or two?

>>49544121
What a lowwit! Never read Song of Ilium!

>>49544341
take your worst expectations and double it

>>49542830
so their plan to dump 9 trillion dollars worth of morgage back securities, totally 20% of the value of all real estate in the united states
failed?

>>49542830
How will the Fed unwind it's MBS bags to tighten if there is no buyer?

>>49544739
Tax payer will alway be force to buy, the fed bags!

>>49542870
it's over...

Every time you think things are going to get better, remember the 2024 election is just over the horizon, and no matter if Trump runs or not, Democrats will do literally anything to win, including keeping the useless war narrative and funding running play top gear while gaslighting everyone on how it's necessary pain for the west

>>49544922
kicking the can down the road has now resulted in the highest inflation in 40 years
theres nothing left that can be done, they can't print their way out anymore

>>49544606
wow manmade horrors beyond imagining!

>>49542946
No nigger its now moving to shelter and services, aka wages and rent
That shit doesn’t go down easily
You don’t negotiate your lease every month
Or your wages every two weeks

If it was just goods, it would have been fine. But services inflation is sticky

>>49545021
>You don’t negotiate your lease every month
>Or your wages every two weeks
but you're about to!

>>49543050
Typical take of russian bot, only they use in their narrative, the phrase "until last hohol" tell your curator that no one knows the word "khokhol" outside of the rusian garbage dump, and this tag doesn't work very well

>>49542889
As in rates will skyrocket?

>>49544999
The digits!

Housing market is about to rugpull like a BSC shitcoin. There will be NO exit liquidity for hoomers.

>>49544999
Time to BRRRR up a little infrastructure before it's over lol

>>49544999
This. There’s no where left to run now.

>>49545106
yeah

>>49543059
yeah, imagine the little spud whinnying like a horse as you ride her.

>>49545363
They will rocket until fed buys out the entire treasury market.

>>49544212
Yes but he became a billionaire predicting one of those crashes.

RIP to boomer HELOCs that went directly into the market (or perhaps were even rehypothecated into more home loans to form their little Boomer real estate empires)

>>49545404
I'm sure he lost it all shorting the bottom of the covid crash though

>>49545452
actually he bought a shit ton of google and fb calls at the bottom of the covid crash as well as gme at $4 and bed bath and beyond at $3, both of which 10x'd within a year

>>49544606
is that real

>>49542830
Reminder this nigger is always too early. You've got 1 year+ before shit really goes down.

>>49545211
>Housing market is about to rugpull like a BSC shitcoin. There will be NO exit liquidity for hoomers.

You wish. Housing market won't crash again.

>>49542870
Bobo still got a job to do

>>49542870
Housing market bubble all over again despite top buyers being absolutely sure that things really would go up forever this time

>>49542830
The blackpill is literally everything is going to shit and there is no way to win, you can only make bets that you will lose less then others. Even shorts won’t save you as hyper inflation will btfo your fiat gains

>>49542870
>ID M00
mumu goes to the slaughter house

Has there ever been a time when housing has gone down but equities or something else like crypto has went up?

My impression is just that everything goes down at the same time and I guess that's what's happening here

>>49542870
Housing market bubble all over again despite top buyers being absolutely sure that things really would go up forever this time

>>49544999
We going to kill Jews for real this time, that’s what can fkn be done

Post what you’ll be buying and when. Picrel when it goes to $120k

>>49546142
2009

Housing did not bottom until 2011

Holy fug is it really happening? 2008 2, No Escape edition?

>>49546147
You ain't gonna do shit anon. At most you're gonna shoot up some wagecucks at the local Chilis.

>>49542946
Have they actually psyopped you faggots into thinking this shit actually has anything to do with the Ukraine?

>>49546171
What money are you going to use to buy it?

Everyone begging for a housing crash are delusional. Houses won’t become affordable for you in the event of a housing crash because like most of the country you will likely end up unemployed in mass layoffs, your portfolio is going to dump to hell, your money will be spent covering all of the increased expenses like energy and food lol

>>49546142
Not really. There are very few times housing went down in a significant way. The great depression and the 08 crisis were the only times. There have been many times during recessions when housing went down a little but only a little. Housing used to be just housing and not an investment like now.

>>49546446
houses are going to infinity
bonne chance

>>49546446
Housing IS going to crash massively. It’s a fucking retarded investment. Especially if you live in the United States - when the economic pain truly sets in, Americas crime rate is going to absolutely skyrocket and all of these foreigners propping up US housing are going to try to get the hell out

>>49546510
The choice is inflationary or deflationary depression lol. They always choose inflationary.

>>49545363
what about real stores of value like bitcoin?

>>49546446
The difference is that housing has never been as highly leveraged as now.

>>49546544
Yeah and it will be inflation of fuel and food and raw materials. Overvalued real estate (Practically all real estate) and stocks will not be inflating as peoples priorities turn to feeding themselves and keeping warm.

Really the only exception is likely rural property as the rich try to mass exodus the chaos of chaos of urban America.

>>49545903
The thing that matters is that things will fall apart very quickly without intervention, and without intervention the democrats are instantly losing the midterms and in 24. Markets are having near record poor performance, consumer sentiment is lowest in generations, inflation highest in generations. The only card the fed can play is destroying the economy so less people want to spend money, that is it.

So the question is whether or not you think the Dems will eat the shit cake and let the economy collapse for years and correct at the cost of probably a republican super majority. Obviously they are selfish so they will start relief programs to get votes, which means the fed will have to buy bonds again which means QE which means money printing. It is just a matter of waiting for it.

>>49546592
Credit expansion fuels the housing however, the future value of the interest is going to be shit, they will force banks to lend. Biden already lowered standards again a few months ago.

>>49546599
See you on the other side anon!
Remember both parties spent a fuckton as well, no saviour coming!

>>49542946
>Everybody acts like this came out of nowhere.
The normie news has been all hopium and cope for the past year. The official narrative is in fact that this came out of nowhere. How many people actually believed it? Unclear. But many at least *acted* like the official narrative was true, because they wanted it to be.

>housing will never crash just like bitcoin will go to $100,000

Housing may not crash like in 2008 but the bubble is magnitudes worse than it was then.

>>49546621
> Credit expansion fuels the housing however

You are operating under an assumption that this is always true. Like I said, when people can barely afford to buy fuel, they are going to borrow money for a house. If they are going to enslave themselves to lenders, they are going to do it for food. It’s fucking over. There is no strategy for what is coming. You are fucked if you own a home (Unless your home is out in the middle of the bluegrass mountains far away from mainstream society), you are fucked if you don’t.

>>49546715

Yeah there's a large percentage of people that were barely making it before record gas costs and further pain is going to create a cascade of bankruptcies and foreclosures.

Does anyone seriously think that someone that just bought at the top in early 2022 isn't house poor?

>>49546636
I'm not saying it to be partisan, if Trump was still president the same thing would happen, in fact it did happen when they resumed QE after trying to taper under Trump. Whoever is in power never selflessly relinquishes power, especially not now in a period of hyper partisan and divided politics.

>>49546700
It isn't really a bubble like in 08, 08 caught everyone off guard, and they saved it by reinflating the economy by having the fed swap toxic bonds at fair value. It is their imperative that there aren't any housing shocks since the housing market is a foundational element of the economy. If the housing market actually crashes, then banks start to crash, if banks actually crash, society crashes.

>>49546715
I understand, but people will re-allocate capital because housing is still real.
Own gold and silver, but understand that the houses go vertical too every single time.
When the society itself becomes a nightmare, the houses go down to reality but nobody ever believes that their people, neighbours, tribe.. can ever devolve like that. They will use the credit to buy a hard asset.

>>49546763
Living is expensive lol, it always has been. We're using debt to make it seem like it's affordable but inflation is forcing the payment regardless. Most americans dont fucking do anything useful.

>>49546599
Not terrible analysis anon but Dems are already fucked on midterms regardless of what's going on with the economy.

>>49546810
You’re right, housing is real. But that doesn’t change the fact that housing is absolutely overpriced and inflated. The housing is real, the current price of a house is not real.

>>49546763
A lot of people buying the top reallocated resources from the stock market which was extremely frothy, which is why the market seemed fine with prices skyrocketing month over month.

All the money from the stimulus checks went to companies, which then went into the market, which then got cashed out and converted into real estate.

>>49546846
They still have 6 months and a lot can change, say Biden starts forgiving student loans, or starts price controls for food and gas, then suddenly people stop caring about the economy and start caring about roe v wade or whatever identity politics to bring it back to parity.

>>49546899
It’s pure cope to think investing in securities and real estate is going to protect you from what’s coming. If anything I think assets are going to become a bigger liability. The federal government is going to try to protect itself from the hungry poor, and the way they’re going to do that is buy fleecing anyone who owns assets. Jacking up taxes on capital gains, jacking up property taxes.

>>49546809

I'm not so sure though. Because if they just print money to bail out the banks the already steep inflation will just be off to the fucking races and society will crash that way as well.

We have to take at least part of this on the chin and suffer a recession/depression. I'm not some wishy washy retard hoping that I can slurp cheap real estate I'm just describing what I see.

>>49546846
>>49546923
>2022
>still pretending political theater matters even in the slightest
How fucking retarded can you possibly be?

>>49546899
yes but they still have credit necessary to suppress gold and silver and the credit expansion to finance home price increase. The price of home in gold ounces may rise, one final time, before somebody on this fuckign planet starts repricing the gold.

>>49546942
>I'm not some wishy washy retard hoping that I can slurp cheap real estate
I am. Last year was the first opportunity for me to jump in and own a home. Now prices and rates are pushing that opportunity away.

>>49542946
>the war
You mean the sanctions against a very important supplier? Yeah those won't last for long
The war will probably drag for years

>>49543050
>it would mean failure of force projection which upholds the American Dollar
Most retarded thing ever said on these boards.

>>49546388
The war has caused oil and gas to go up in price which affects gasoline prices, heat and even electricity prices.
In Europe, all these have risen somewhere between 50% and 100% as a direct correlation. These costs triggle down to every other aspect of the economy.
What big event do you think happened simultaneously with the war which caused it instead?

>>49544606
my worst expectations are that i make a million buckarinos. Double that bitch nigga

>>49546945
We are literally in this position because of politicians prioritized politics over policy, I don't know what you are talking about.

>>49546942
It is the best of 2 bad choices for them, because otherwise the economy just collapses and that's it. It is the same decision they made in the 80s with savings and loans, 08 gfc and every time they tried tapering off QE since then. This is how hyperinflation and debasement happens, just like how it has happened in every other reserve currency in the past. Given financial and political ruin or inflation, governments will always choose the latter.

>>49546923
I think that's their plan. I'm sure around August they'll make an official announcement about 10-20k means-tested student loan forgiveness. Price controls for food and gas are harder to predict but are on the table. And you're absolutely right that the Dems want to focus on Roe vs Wade. However, I think they're going to lose specifically because I don't see that strategy working. Too many people are still too checked out and demoralized (even groups that Dems rely on activating for their ground game) for them not to lose one if not both of the houses.

>>49546945
You're right. I'm not sure why you believed I was suggesting otherwise.

>>49547121
You understand that investing in the military was literally for the sake of maintaining world dollar status right?
The fuck is the matter with you wake the fuck up nothing else is backing the currency, the world had to wait for these assholes to go bankrupt to get their gold back lmfao 52 years in the making.

>>49547148
No, we're literally in this position because this position was what was the intended result of their actions. They do not need anybody's approval, or even to have the faintest veneer of legitimacy, do you seriously think they design their actions around the opinions of the unwashed masses, or for something as flagrantly false as the red team blue team dichotomy?

>>49547126
Oil and electricity prices were already skyrocketing before the war as a result of high inflation, dimwit. The war just exacerbated the effects

>>49544999
c-ch-checked

>>49547156
I think stimulus via price controls will be more likely because the only people that care about loan forgiveness are people who got expensive, useless liberal arts degrees which are probably voting democrat anyways.

>>49547195
So they printed money to instigate an economic crisis so they could lose power? This isn't about partisanship this is about power.

>>49546446
19th century US had very vicious localized housing crashes. (My chart doesn't cover them)

>>49547311
>lose power
How, exactly? By enacting biosecurity laws that five years ago you would have been called schizo for describing? By completely obliterating what little independence the middle class had via shuttering small businesses? By getting an even larger percentage of the public completely reliant on the government for their continued survival?

>>49545866
Those fucks were infuriating. ''this time it's different'' ''the government learned it's lesson'' ''there are too many safety nets in place now''

My faggot colleagues mocked me for not buying in this climate. I can't wait for them to seethe after I snap up a nicer house for half the cost in cosy white neighbourhood.

From what I can tell the fed will break something by doing QT and raising rates. Causing the dow to drop over 50%. The fed will then come in with QE but only for government bonds. Meaning interest rates still remain high and the normies are fucked.

Real Estate will probably continue to crash. However I can see a scenario where it doesn't either.

It's really a 50/50 coin toss right now. Would love people more educated to chime in.

>>49546446
Man to missed the 79 crash and the 91 crash

>>49542896
This very good, this painting on bright cave wall grug understand,

>>49544606
that's fucking fake

>>49547374

It won't crash. Ask any boomer. They said it won't So it won't.

>>49547148
We've never had a really truly global reserve currency before, so when the dollar rugs the whole planet will rug with it. The question is whether it rugs before or after the US.

>>49546599
>still thinking in terms of political parties
Like the Republicans can do anything to fix any of this? We're fucked big guy, and if you think muh left or muh right is what this is really all about then you have been propagandized beyond hope.

>>49542830

>>49547467

Housing market hasn't rugged. So economy is safe.

>>49547485
>yet

>>49547317
1800s? Why not send this further back! Let's look at renaissance and medieval housing markets too!

>>49547485
That's the silver lining: If housing looks like it is going to rug, that gets Boomers into play. Which means Biden will shove his arm up Jerome Powell's ass and manipulate him like a grotesque meat puppet to turn the printers back on.

>>49547374
Dollars must be borrowed into existence, which is why they cut the fed funds rate before major treasury moves.

>>49547502

lmao do you think biden even knows what day it is? His handlers may put that pressure on but he's a Weekend At Bernie's situation.

>>49547492
>1800s? Why not send this further back! Let's look at renaissance and medieval housing markets too!
Because back then you had honest money!
Can't use housing prices from a fake and gay fiat system That has existed since WW2. The data is just very biased in these systems.

>>49547530
For our purposes it's the same thing. You can read "Biden" as shorthand for "the deep state power structure currently animating his rapidly cooling flesh" if it makes you feel smarter. You're not, tho.

>>49547530
Biden has moments of clarity in between his fugue states. Doesn't matter though, Powell won't need any convincing once unemployment starts going up. He's not going to crash all his buddies' assets in any serious way, he's not going to allow a second depression. This is just the deflation before the hyperinflation. This is where the wealthy get just a bit richer by buying the last bottom.

>>49547553

I bet you make lots of friends. Do a lot of people like to hang around hearing about how smart you think you are?

>>49547587
They do, because I say it so well. You?

>>49547374
housing at the least has peaked. stock market might dip another 20% simply because of momentum.
but government deficit spending is through the roof, and every month of that is millions of boomers getting huge paychecks from the government to spend on entertainment and restaurants.
There will be lots of pressure on young people to support this but rather than a depression where there are no jobs, they're just low-paying jobs.

"QT" + high deficit spending = mostly neutral money supply. but it takes more months to stabilize

>>49547574

My question has been the same though-hyperinflation is just as dangerous and destabilizing as a depression and can quickly get wildly out of control. If the dollar hyperinflates and the world dumps it as a reserve currency you kiss goodbye to the current ZOG world hegemony and all kinds of crazy shit opens up.

There's no easy way out of this but I totally get why you believe that they won't choose austerity because it's political suicide to do so.

>>49547595

I'm sure they line up to hear it.

>>49547595
Stop talking like a fag

>>49545828
Yes it will, this will end in a bubble for sure, just mass psychology, it's always the same. It will take at least 4-5 years. The time frame is uncertain but it's just like bitcoin from $4k to $8k, it's just the beginning. For example in 05 the market was already fucked and it took 2 years to crash. You got to be patient. In the meantime it's good to invest but I already know what the next trade is going to be after this period

>>49542946
you dumb nigger. All the "economists" predicted it would be much lower based on previous data. Then it came in much higher (0.3% YoY) and it was across all sectors, not just food and energy. So not only is it not contained to a few things like before, it's also increasing at a faster rate that predicted. Hence the dumps on Thursday & Friday.

>>49544640
Surprisingly, no one wanted to buy the toxic assets the fed bought up to "save the economy" while the fed is currently in the process of imploding the economy.

>>49547726
Boomers will be shocked when they find out they basically did nothing for 40 years lol

>>49547663
There's no way out of it, easy or hard. Either the US rugs the planet - endangering their world order - or they rug themselves, endangering the thing the world order is nominally set up to protect.

>>49547726

Well something I've always wanted to know is how much of the housing bubble is built on HELOC and other speculative bullshit that is going to explode like a fucking bomb the second the "housing only goes up" meme stops being true?

>>49547780
The world was rightly terrified of the US military industrial complex. That's what the dollar is backed by.
If they can't afford a war, or people don't fight for the system.... then as Putin said in 2007 we get a multipolar world.

>>49542830

>>49547694
The market been fucked since the last quarter of 2019, the fed had to give just 3 bank 4.5 trillion, this was why they releaseed covid.

>>49547780
At the tippy to of fed funds when they announce we Ching Chong will sell their us bonds at ath and send yields out of control. And though they all fuck(gay) behind closed doors usgay will "muh china" just like they "muh Russia" the poo tin joo. Then muh fortified portfolio reverse repo bankfags with their bonds will panic aaaaaah fucking sell having bought fucking 20yrs on a dismal 1.5% yield. Banks go insolvent as 10yo girls without shoes on margin call them "low yielding bonds? waddelse U got mr" FUCKING NOTHING YOU BASTARD BITCH. "Muh interest rate doin somethin'" Honey our Zillow estimate worldwide saturnalia repo like in 1930s. They always go the inflationary root until it's not profitable to do otherwise. Verification not required. Pic very related

>>49547892
Qe* fucking qui is in charge of autocorrect

>>49547840

Multipolar yes, looking at all like what Putin (or you (or I) envisioned? absolutely fucking not. The US isn't going to collapse that far, not because I believe in America but because I believe that if the chips are down globally the US still having the guns on a global scale means that it can extort or grant protection to get what it wants, which is an option almost nobody else has, especially not the states that most people perceive of as America's rivals.

>>49547212
The inflation is only part of it, the panic is the real problem.
During the pandemic, prices were extremely low as a lot of people didn't drive as much. I bought diesel at less than half the price it is today during that time and was loving it. For the prices to return to normal wasn't a big surprise as the pandemic was over and everything was back to normal. Obviously, I have seen the prices go up, I feel like I am the only one who realizes how much prices have gone up in every sector. The government claims 7% inflation, which is technically true if you look at a specific set of items.
The problem is, when you always buy the cheapest option in each category, you see a bigger difference.
Let's say I want "an item" prices went up 10% and then the cheap option sold out and now I have to buy the expensive one which is also up 10%. Effectively, I needed to pay 100 last year, and now I have to pay 250.
That is the reality in a lot of products.
We no longer have things on sale, we no longer have the cheap line of products. It seems to be far worse than 2008 once people start to lose their jobs.

>>49547803
it's just an outdated doomer meme. helocs are harder to get after the 2000s, right now there's a total of $320 Billion in HELOC, as of Q3 2021.
another figure I saw was that it was 5% of people use it compared to 10% awhile back.

They may increase in popularity as people try to maintain lifestyles as money get tighter. Same with ARMS, no one has ARMs because they all locked in static rates at 3%. Everyone's hyper-sensitive about 2008 but it's not going to play out exactly the same way. If anything we're closer to 2005.

>>49547925
I think the term you're looking for is "demand destruction"

>>49547931

Was it only blackrock buying up the houses or was it just vast reserves of previously unheard of boomer money dropping all those "cash" offers.

There has never been a period in living memory of such irrational exuberance where people were making cash offers 40% over asking with no inspection.

>>49547925
Thats cuz of supply chain failures everywhere. Its why JPow is wrong to turn the printers off: this inflation isnt gonna go away, its the new normal. China is an unstable trading partner again because they'll close an entire city over a dozen cases of the coof. Adding to that is a war in Europe, and all international trade carries risk premiums from those realities. And they will continue to carry those premiums until everybody restructures their supply chain to not need any of China and any parts of Europe that Russia could overrun.

This will take years.

Was this anon right

>>49546388
no. the war was created to cover their fuck ups. not gonna stop stacking monero and silver/gold.

>>49548014
>>49547892
Yes see my post. It will correlate with Chinese sale of us treasuries and they will "muh china"

>>49547990
the fed was buying any MBS it could to save us from covid. so the banks took advantage of that and increased sub-prime lending, knowing the fed would buy them. They even made up a new word for it in their earnings reports.
it wasn't just blackrock, the banks were approving more loans than ever because they were no risk to them. Now as the fed tries to sell those back to the market no one will put up bids anywhere near these prices. that's the real risk. is no one steps up to buy the MBS as they get sold off.
and the lack of liquidity causes everything else to dump hard too.

>>49547126
>What big event do you think happened simultaneously with the war which caused it instead?
meme flu

>>49546147
no, anon. even if you managed to do that they have communities all over the world so it's basically impossible at this point. the best you could do is convince people that jewry is bad for them and they should forbid anyone from exercising it (basically kicking them out).

>>49543050
>yugioslavia

kek

>>49548059

Ok that makes sense. I saw that the difference between median income and median house price is the widest it has ever been in recorded history and I could not figure out where the fuck that money was coming from.

>>49545211
i saw a post on Reddit yesterday of a guy bragging he invested in real estate rather than crypto...

so it's unironically over?

>>49548256
possibly

>>49547694
>but I already know what the next trade is going to be after this period
what trade is that anon?
>water

>>49548256

whats over? Real estate isn't crashing.

>>49548238

how is that a bad thing? Real estate is too strong and powerful to crash.

>>49548357
>Real estate is too strong and powerful to crash.

>>49546446
Housing in California is going to crash to Detroit levels in someplaces. The era of code monkeys being paid 300k a year to make buttons on a web page just ended, tech companies will have layoffs for the first time since 2001 and the salaries will be downscaled by a lot.
This will be accelerated by Web3 and crypto services.

>>49548357
Soon over.

>>49542908
Sauce for JOI?

>>49546147
It woud take a global revolution to kill them all or hold them to account. A coordinated, global revolution across languages and cultures with a mutual understanding for one another between the haves and have-nots. The capitalist class that sold the futures of younger generations for their own comforts and egos in the now.

If shit craters, they'll all flee the country for South America, EU countries, Africa, Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, Oceania. A public demonstration and well circulated narrative is most important, but while the military might schism into various ethno-social factions, you can bet they'll wield the police union like a cudgel to safeguard Wall Street's infrastructure even if those same officers are getting screwed in their personal lives with the rest of the civvies.

>>49548493
Pivoting to the web 3 distributed meme before it's too late. Thanks

>>49547663
One thing no one talks about is as much as US shits up the world being the world’s police, we do keep the seas relatively stable. Imagine the level of piracy and chaos that will go up when the world order falls apart, you thought the supply chain was bad now…you might see countries like Lebanon took completely over by Hezbollah or Mexico the cartels, total medieval boss-tier shit.

so...hold cash and blow your stacks on stocks in 2023 during the recession?

>>49543224
(((They))) want global power, and taking over Russia and next China are their objectives neccesary towards it. Russia loses Ukraine, next it has war on their own territory, the same with China next. Sooner we see chinese army troops helping russians in Ukraine or even nukes flying, than them losing the Ukraine war.

>>49547134
A million dollars will be more like $100 after inflation by 2024.

>>49548569
Good thing with the internet there is no place for them to hide.

>>49547892
Based drunk poster.

>>49548683

I was going to say hypothetically, if shit hits the fan and infrastructure is captured/shut down/destroyed, it's important to safeguard power generators, telecomms towers, municipal routers, and mesh nodes. I would hope enough people see the importance of maintaining internet access just to maintain general use but I get the feeling most are too stupid or too lazy. Either way, it's a quagmire of shit I don't want to think about. As necessary as it could be for a healthier society longterm, if people think life is shit now, this is nothing. They probably can't comprehend how shit it would be in any semblance of an actual class war in the US or if poverty gets too extreme or the bottom falls out and the dollar winds up worthless. The fed and the treasury will weasel their way out of this somehow.

>>49548493
There's that nice 32 hour Blockchain solidity JavaScript course on YouTube. Thanks for the info. Going balls deep into web3.

Also the ISP and cloud services data centers scattered about. There is a shitload of infrastructure to look out for, each one its own bottleneck, and if any one of them in the ladder fails, there's limited fail-over. Most likely you just lose civilian communications completely. No more Fortnite.

>>49542946
yeah the war in ukraine is causing all the problems, yeah

>>49547311
They printed money because they are beholden to the interests that ended up with it. How clueless are you?

>>49542946
Fuck you stupid nigger

>>49548553
Cheerleader Gauge.

>>49548014
Has the bond market collapsed?

>nobody is buying MBS
Is this true? If so isn't this the largest red flag in all history for shit is about to all come crashing down? The housing market was being kept up by tens of billions of dollars of printed money being shoveled in through firms like Blackrock, if they're not even buying at that volume any more does it not mean the whole housing market is going to implode within 2 years?

>>49542870
10 year was pricing 3%. Meaning fed wouldn't reach more than that on rates and probably below it a bit. After cpi the 2 year went to 3% and started climbing. Meaning bond traders are selling the 2 year with 3% rate. Meaning they see the fed rates higher than 3% within 2 year period.

>>49549233
>Burry says no MBS buyers
>Bond market red
>Bonds usually nuked by rate increases anyway
>rates also increasing and will increase more in future
I would say we're pointing that way

>>49542990
No way dude. That's more outrageous than "BTC to 100K by August." It'll be over early fall, late summer. Where the market will be then, who knows.

>>49549317
There isn't going to be much of a market left come summer.

>>49542946
>Why is everybody shitting their pants over the CPI. It was mainly scewed by energy and food products which everybody already knew went up massively and the war in Ukraine won't
Retard we had inflation at 8% already before putin even put troops on the border. Ukraine isn't a significant part of our economy to get an increase in inflation.

>>49542830
Post a anime girl with exposed thighs next time and maybe I might respond to your post. Maybe

>>49549307
Why would the 10 year stay relatively flat?

>>49549363
Why wouldn't it ? Explain like I am a retard.

>>49548357

>>49549363
Because Interest rates wouldn't be high for a decade.

>>49546809
>If the housing market actually crashes, then banks start to crash, if banks actually crash, society crashes.
Then I pray it does. Society is so wicked and broken I'd rather see all my ports burn to see it go too.

>>49544042
>it’s just a new paradigm bro!

>>49547311
>so they could lose power? This isn't about partisanship this is about power.
Exactly, ruin the economy and system so much the sheep are begging for an answer from the same people who caused the problem. Hegelian Dialectic and the beauty of having two controlled parties. One can always take the fall and the other can always pose to be the savior. Pure theater that we pay for.

>>49546424
what expenses do you even have if you dont have children
honestly dont get retards like you

>>49542946
>It was mainly screwed by the two most fundamental market-attached things to human life consumed and produced.
Are you being for real?

>>49548357
>Real estate is too strong and powerful to crash.
10/10

>>49542946
>Inflation isn't caused by inflating the money supply
>It's just Putin's price hike!
I can't wait for retards like you to be in a fucking soup line in the next couple years

Do you also think Jan 6 was the worst thing to happen to America?

>>49549850
It is too late for them, we need to focus on figuring out security for after this society fucking collapses.

>>49542946
>the war in Ukraine won't last forever

The Kikes in the State Department want it to go on as long as possible. Could be 2 or more years.

They want to bring Russia to her knees to give their Jewish corporations access to the Ukraine and Russian markets. Your suffering and shitcoin valuations mean nothing to these people.

>>49542870
MBS = mortgage backed securities. No buyers/bids = banks no longer want to buy mortgages from primary lenders = they don’t want mortgages on their books = mortgages are about to become much harder to get = demand for housing is about to drop off a cliff = housing prices about to plummet.

But wait, there’s more: for the last 2-3 years, mutual funds, hedge funds, and other large investment firms have begun buying up large amounts of residential real estate as revenue generators. Soooo, unlike in 2008, large chunks of the housing market are now directly connected to the stock market. Housing market crashes = stock market crashes.

>>49545083
Get back to /k/ you illiterate, blue collar piece of ZOG bootlicking shit.

>>49547780
>Rugs world
>Largest military
>Largest force projection
>Largest economy

Guess who needs the good ole USA to restore order again?

>>49549986
I was in the army. You need to pay us something to do that job, unless you convince us there's a super good reason to go fight and die.

>>49542830
Boomer here

who is Michelle burry?
what's a black pill?
what even is this website here?
why is it on my computer?
I want to talk to tech support please

regards,
Rodney Artman of Topeka, Kansas

>>49550000
checked

>>49544341

It’s over November 2021 was the last chance to cash out everything

>>49550003
kek

>>49549317
2 weeks

>>49546388
>(((risk premium))) doesn't exist, simply, because I don't like it

>>49546388
>Real-life commodities don't matter

If you cant handle 3-5% interest rates on your house, you cant afford owning a house. No shit that housing will crater. And by crater I mean return to pre Covid levels. 20-30% drop-off is all you can hope for.

>>49549956
This sounds like a good buying opportunity, for stocks that is as I already own a home.

>>49549956
we're about to go back to interest rates on mortgages being double digits

>>49547121
>Most retarded thing ever said on these boards.
I think you get the crown for that. Why do you think Ghadafi hat to die?

>>49545390
There's a cashier at the gas station I work at and she's a tiny little philly I wanna ride.

>>49550364

Not gonna happen.

>>49548569
nigga, do you know how powerful the US military is?

>>49548357
Holy shit, I see that we are literally at the top

>>49546147
109 countries.
>>49546345
>>49546345
>At most you're gonna shoot up some wagecucks at the local Chilis.
We're not all American mutts, my Jewish footstool.
109 countries.

>>49546388
>WHAT DO YOU MEAN WAR EFFORT REQUIRES GASOLINE!
Lowest IQ site. Right there with reddit.

>>49542870
boomer kike niggers tongued boomer's anuses now boomers go boom and gone are the boomers

crypto is a confirmed hedge to this mess
choose wisely tho, because the shitty projects are about to nose dive
loading my api3 bags as we speak

Wtf are you talking out here? If you wanna try smth interesting, join Streeth.

>Street Art NFTs by world renowned street artists.
>Team of eight with 50+ years of joint experience
>Complete safe personal Vault

>>49542830
If this is true i wonder how will it translate to the Mexican real state market.

I mean if indeed USA goes tits up in real state prices it has to affecf mexico, right?

>>49550003
this, boomers are oblivious they listen to tv and most of them dont even know what twitter is

>>49548357
>>49550508
on the way down anon

>>49545211
>There will be NO exit liquidity for hoomers
their children will inherit the houses

How long will the housing crash take to bottom out?
2-3 years roughly?

>>49550779
Rough estimate should be around a timeframe of 2 weeks.

>>49550779
if 2008 is any indication, it'll take a couple months to bottom out. Maybe a year. You won't be getting homes at a discount. What actually happened is foreclosures went up and if you had cash you could get your choice of a wide variety of distressed and abandoned houses for half price. Otherwise no luck. People weren't selling the bottom unless they had to.

>>49550779
prob 1 year

>>49547374
There also was a post by some anon about cbms crashing will make our real estate crash worse than 2008

>>49547317
>you had to wait until X to see any appreciation
as it should be. imagine thinking it's normal for a house to appreciate over time.

>>49546446
You’re a dumb nigger if you don’t think the housing market is on the verge of major collapse

>>49542830
SPY will go sub 1k
It’s over

>>49546809
> 08 caught everyone off guard,

My god you’re so fucking stupid. No one was caught off guard except kids and fools

>>49543050

>a Russian civil war would mean failure of force projection which upholds the American Dollar

absolute retard take. the truth is Russia has already lost by even having the war,

>>49546942
Exactly. The money printing came way too early. That should tell you something. When the housing market crashes the citizens won’t be getting bailed out this time. Hoping there’s a way where I get to finagle my house out from under the Jews tho

>>49550898
If no one was caught off guard then how come big banks got dicked?
I mean lehman did go tits up

>>49547156
$10k-20k loan forgiveness

If they do that I’ll be pissed. Unless they give everyone 10-20k. If you have a loan, the money goes right to their lender. Else it goes right to your bank account

>>49547373
Short attention spans like this are a huge reason why crypto cycles will repeat.
There is a never-ending supply of new blood to sucker in who have no real recollection of the past.

>>49549956
It's so confusing, because of the covid supply issues and now same shit with war, the building costs have skyrocketed.
So even if a recession absolutely destroys household income, and rising rates crush demand, will houses actually become cheaper if the building costs are still going up?
Until chinks finally give up on covid measures, the war stops, and supply bottlenecks are sorted out, then we can expect things to finally settle down.

>>49548014
Pretty much, yes.
>>49550831
I found it >>49543837

>>49551008
Chink is doing on purpose and the war will continue until the west is decimated

>>49542901
Basado. Coomers around the world unite

>>49547694
Stupid fuck. The market was NOT fucked in 05. It was still rising and really just taking off. Shut the fuck up dude. You’re an idiot

>>49544606
Blue beans.

>>49548014
so you're telling me the bond are dog shit wrapped in catshit?

>>49550811
Why compare it to 2008 and not say the jap property bubble which hasn't come close to recovering 32 years later?

>>49551095
i unironically suspect MSM flue paranoia was there just to cover up real reason everything is going to shit, trade war between china and USA

>>49542870
Kill yourself

>>49542830
Boomers will get rekt by stocks, millennials by crypto and zoomers by jpgs. In the end you will all eat bugs, rent out your assholes and have nothing.

>>49542830
>>49542889
>>49542896
so burry saying US housing will pop again?

is there any stats somewhere i can compare with UK? surely is similar situation right?

>>49550947
Looooooool ok boomer

>>49546510
sounds amazing

>>49542830
does this mean housing prices will go up or down?

Buy land and house in rural area or mountains. At minimum 10 acres (preferably as much as possible). Make sure you have water rights. Buy guns, ammo, seeds, gold, silver, crypto, cash. Hope for the best. Good luck anons.

>americans start waking up
>thread starts going to shit

>>49544021
Rates are rising wednesday as well correct? Either 50 or 75bp but either way that will effect new mortgage rates, adjustable rate mortgages, HELOCs (which I believe are either adjustable rate or adjustable after a certain time period) and I believe credit cards with adjustable rates because the cost of borrowing money is going up aswell.

>captcha "HAG Y0"

>>49549301
It just means interest rates will get double digits.

>>49551293

It means huge inflation rates coming.

Pensions will disappear, debt holders will be minted. House prices and assets will skyrocket, but retirees will be forced to sell in order to survive.

The current bear conditions is like a rubber band being stretched.

Mass printing money is the only solution available, there is not enough value for the economy to rely on.

>>49551246
Inflation is worse in the UK compared to the US. The pound is also fucked beyond repair.

Um, sweetie, don't think you're being a bit alarmist about the housing market? After all, my realtor told me it's going to keep going up. Pic rel.

>>49551419
White women need to be genocided for the good of the world.

>>49551384
In the Great Depression houses became pretty worthless. My family sold 7 of their 8 houses to survive. It feels like wet headed for that again, plus hyperinflation.

>>49542830
HOUSING WILL NEVER CRASH BECAUSE...WELL IT JUST WONT, OKAY??

>>49551485
Uhh… anon
>tfw I should’ve bought more calls on leveraged short ETFs

>>49548493
>Housing in California is going to crash to Detroit levels in someplaces. The era of code monkeys being paid 300k a year to make buttons on a web page just ended
Sure it is, anon....
Not like some of the most used services humanity has ever seen are built in that sector or anything

>>49551187
We won't get the Japanese real estate market for another two decades. In two decades we will have major population decline and so will everywhere except India and a few others.

>>49542946
Most anons have low time preference, and they don't understand that high interest rates will destroy demand resulting in deflation.

I will say you will see deflation despite the war in Ukraine.

>>49551625
Interest rates are still rock bottom though

>>49548781
Link? I'm a sysadmin with scripting experience and considering going into DevOps. But I'm also seriously considering going into web3 to leverage myself for what comes in a few years after the downturn

>>49551408
so housing wont crash as hard in UK (since in £ terms gone up)

>>49551625
Define high

>>49550779
>>49550784
50x 2 weeks

>>49548238
Real estate will recover after a bubble. Bitcoin will not.

>>49551676
15-20%+ for 5yrs min

>>49551716
It is nowhere near that right now and there is currently no Paul Volcker working at the FED right now, they are all cowards.

>>49546345
why not the biggest bank in the largest city of my state, snuffing out the life of bank tellers and retail bankers, sending a message

>>49542830
Just stop paying taxes until the government unfucks itself.

>>49548256
For the next 10-15 years, probably. We had an insane generational bullrun where the peak had jpegs of monkeys going from $0 to $600k each in less than 1 year. More than half a million dollars for a monkey jpeg. It really can't get any more frothy than that

>>49551735
exactly buy land in mountains or rural flyovers. homestead and wait it out. learn some real skills.

>>49551771
yeah good point. now take this absurdity and triple it before this is really over.

>>49546592
Rural America is just as fucked crime wise with roving bands of meth heads and heroin junkies that rob and pillage to get their next fix.

>>49551821
guns solve this

>>49551440
no just disciplined

>>49548781
>>49548493
UX designer here. How do I profit from web3?

>>49551848
Meth heads are the gun owners in rural America.

>>49551293
interest rates go up so the house payment
goes up. if a seller wants to sell then they may
have to lower their asking price because not
all buyers can afford the payment on the house
at the same price with a higher interest rate.

these moves don't happen overnight
12-18 months perhaps, to start getting a clear
picture ?

>>49543050
>t. low level understanding of geopolitics

>>49545083
All of this is biden, incompetent dems, and incompetent diplomats fault btw.

>>49550062
I did it in january 2022 but I still have a bunch d0b0 and RVP shitcoins I just left to rot

>>49545083
All of this is biden, incompetent dems, and incompetent diplomats' fault btw.

>>49542908
Is it only pedos who actually listen to this kid?

>>49546338
it is indeed
your money is safe nowhere but in your mattress
oh the irony

>>49542946
Fuck does a war in uktranny means anything for the USA

>>49551192
Things were looking apocalyptic for the market at the end of 2019 before anyone even heard about covid, so I don’t doubt that they exaggerated covid in order to slow down money velocity so they could have some more time to figure things out

>>49549956
by plummet you mean stop going up quite as fast,
after 2008 banks kept their toxic houses at full price and waited years to sell them rather than lowering prices to a fair value

>>49551996
People have a shirt attention span. They really don't remember how bad shit was. We were over due for a correction 3 years ago and then covid hit and everything went absolutely insane.

>>49552123
>2008 banks kept their toxic houses at full price
But they are basically zombi banks right now, I don't they can do this now again

>>49550335
> And by crater I mean return to pre Covid levels. 20-30% drop-off is all you can hope for.
That’s all I want. The pre-Covid prices were justifiable. The housing rally since COVID has been entirely fake and gay.

buy treasury bonds

>>49552161
>I don't they can do this now again

>>49542889
They won't be laughing at millenials and their avocado toast now. You kept your kids generations so poor they can't buy your rotting properties.

>>49551596
How do you know this?

>>49543967
Mortgage in Latin means a “Death Note” or “Death Obligation”.

>>49544341
Civil War bad.

>>49551889
Its incredible how distorted peoples view of rural America is. Not everywhere is Appalachia. I live in the boonies, all of my neighbors are either retired and have a billion toys (side by sides, heavy equipment, constant home renovations that they do themselves), or work as pilots or for the DoD, etc. etc. There are always run down trailers when you live in unregulated areas, but there aren't bands of junkies and high crime in these areas because everyone knows everyone and the bad weeds get plucked. Plus everyone has an arsenal and gun shots are heard daily as people shoot for fun in their own ranges.

whats the best way to short the housing market?

>>49544819
Your Pic Rel is the Truth and the Way.

>>49552123
If they own a significant portion of the housing stock, people will squat.

In fact, it would behoove us to start a Le Dark Web listing of corporate-owned housing so that people can avoid squatting in houses owned by small-time individual investors.

>>49549479
high iq post

>>49552485
Move back in with your parents and jack it to the Big Short.

This guy was right once. He’s been wrong since then. The housing market will literally never crash. Foreign investors and REITs will just keep buying.

>>49546171
Are you seriously expecting a -97% real-estate correction for the Alaska luxury market?

>>49547374
nigger nigger niggers

>>49552538
What the full makes you think people won't dump reits with the dogshit returns they're about to have? Anything that gets between investors and the decision of what they invest in is bubble fuel, ETFs included. Reits are about to crash and burn hard because they are captured investment capital, they have to buy even when it's funding stupid, but other parties can sell, and then one reit after the other will start to fall, and have to liquidate assets leading to a cascade of home prices. Reits are the ninja loans of this bubble.

>>49552474
Appalachia is peaceful, it's everywhere else rural that's a clusterfuck. You don't hear about the large amount of crime because everything is spread out and things get handled informally or are swept under the rug. You're an idiot if you think all those guns are held legally, that kids aren't driving and drinking and taking drugs well before they're supposed to be, that domestic violence rates aren't high, that people aren't shoplifting religiously at Wal-Mart, that sketchy deaths aren't ruled suicides all the time, actual suicides (thank you, o gun ownership's ripest fruits) etc. That's before you get to all the white collar crime that's paying for those toys. Embezzlement, fraud, federal and state funding getting passed around under the table, money laundering, etc. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Cities are rich because of the critical mass of people and industry; rural wealth is either city slickers bringing their money with them or rural folk "extracting" it by less-than-savory means.

Anyway, in a collapse, rural areas that don't revert to stone-age circumstances are always shelled-out, mined-up hellholes. The safest places are heavily-guarded suburban enclaves, places that are close enough to the city to send the help out to get supplies but far enough away that unless you knew where you were going you probably wouldn't even know it existed. This is how it worked in places like Afghanistan, and you can find evidence of such dynamics dating back to Rome. If you have means, the last place you want to be during civil distress is in Bumfuck, Flyover, about equal to the inner city.

>be globohomo
>make celebrity
>celebrity fud
>sheepel slel
>profit

>>49551008
We have natural resources, too.

>>49552709
White collar crime doesn't count

>>49552709
>heavily guarded suburban enclaves with no food production are safer than rural farmland where you are allowed to feed yourself without an HOA breathing down your neck

>he thinks he's going to be in the walking dead where he can just freely walk into cities and "grab supplies" as if there won't be roving enclaves of gangs and hunters in the cities

>he's comparing suburbs to places like Afghanistan

>he thinks rural neighbors aren't already a functioning community of bartering and assistance that suburb dwellers larp about being just because they bake each other brownies once a month

>>49552778
White collar crime is why we're in this mess.
>>49552883
>heavily guarded suburban enclaves with no food production are safer than rural farmland where you are allowed to feed yourself without an HOA breathing down your neck
Unironically yes. See: every Warring States period drama ever. Farmers get fucked and people who can hire soldiers survive.
>he thinks he's going to be in the walking dead where he can just freely walk into cities and "grab supplies" as if there won't be roving enclaves of gangs and hunters in the cities
Unless there's a full collapse, at which point roving gangs will absolutely buttfuck anyone without a walled compound, ports and trading posts will always be accessible. You don't fuck with the supply line except during war or total collapse.
>he's comparing suburbs to places like Afghanistan
Please go read.
>he thinks rural neighbors aren't already a functioning community of bartering and assistance that suburb dwellers larp about being just because they bake each other brownies once a month
You rely on imported supplies as much as anyone so.
The only exception might be Alaskans and that's just because being absolutely cut off from everyone without a fucking airplane ride to the next town over is the norm. If you can reach your community by car you're part of the network and rely on it.