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3121430 No.3121430 [Reply] [Original]

Today I was paper trading the Emini Dow. I just trade with the stochastic studies which indicate overbought and oversold levels. I have been only scalping 3-4 points but have noticed on the 5 minute chart that the swings from Overbought or Oversold can be 25 points plus. Obviously since the market has been on a down trend I learned to trade with the trend. So far after each consolidation a new lower low would be formed by like 30+ points.

While viewing the stochastic on the 10 minute or even the 30min chart that gave me the best predictability outcome with an easy 20point trade( I followed this route today and made a fast 20 point trade and then an hour later another 14 points). I would like to hear your guys opinions or thoughts to my thoughts, should I add some more studies, ex fibonacci, or just keep observing?

>pic related, the blue lines are where I made my two trades. The first trade was at 688 and held till 668. The second trade was when the 30min chart was oversold and heading straight down. I made 14 points there, I forgot where I entered and exited...

I could have made more trades to practice but unfortunately I wasnt home.

So is it safe to trade the trend for 10-30 minutes when OB or OS?

>> No.3121456
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3121456

Futures?

>> No.3121462
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3121462

>> No.3121550
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>>3121456
>>3121462
please someone tell me that not everyone is brainwashed by the crypto

>> No.3121875

Anyone?

>> No.3121949

You need to build up a decent sample size so you can perform testing, figure out your +/-95% confidence interval with your strategy and prove that it generates alpha/is profitable over a large sample size. If I'm testing strats on the 15min I usually go for a 200 sample size min to perform inference. Further to this, the more complication you add the harder it will be to determine why the strat is working (if it is at all). My advice is to work up a sample size, make changes gradually, test these changes over a decent sample size to see if they increase strategy alpha and repeat.

Takes a fucking long time but you need the data if you ever want to take a strat live.

Or you can go all in on this Internet monopoly money stuff and make 250% in a week hahaha!

>> No.3122381

>>3121949
I appreciate it. Getting a sample is a great move, I have only a weeks worth of a sample but ill get on it for more. As for indicators would you say the stochastics and maybe add the Average Directional Movement index would be too much complications? I'm reading that the ADX should help identify if dow is in a trend or in a trade area.

>> No.3122716

I would say you need to optimize the parameters for your stochastics first with a decent sample size and then you should move on to testing other indicators if you want to add then. If you want to go real deep into the stats side you can perform walk forward testing on your stochastic params to see what settings have the highest level of predictive power. In terms if individual indicators I'm afraid I'm not too well versed, all I'll say is that by using walk forward testing for your indicator parameter optimization + gradually testing any additions to your model with a sufficient sample size you can create some pretty powerful shit.

>> No.3122748

>>3122716
Thank you again. I'm looking forward to monday now.

>> No.3122819

>>3122748
Why look forward to Monday when you can trade crypto NOW?????

>> No.3122948
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3122948

>>3122819
Dont start, guy