/biz/ - Business & Finance

What a load of bullshit. You should always try to beat the market if you think you can.

FUD was never an issue for me. In my opinion FOMO is the biggest issue new traders have to watch out for. Once I got over FOMO I was able to see things more clearly and make better judgements. My initial investments/bags are a reminder to not succumb to FOMO. Now I do much better by containing my greed and ignoring my fear.

it's not like there isn't going to be another coin boom, just chill out and be patient

>>2833868
>used to trade on wall st.
>now trade crypto
>live innawoods
>smoke weed while trade
>watch alex jones
>achieve momentary nirvana
>zero sense of urgency, zero fear of missing out, zero fear of losses because it's all worthless anyway
>the market tells you it is time to buy
>you buy
>the market tells you it is time to sell
>you sell
>you tell the market you want to buy
>the market dips
>you tell the market you want to sell
>the market rises

>Buy at X
>Sell at X+Y
>Wait for it to go back down to X
>Buy at X
>Repeat several times

It's too easy!

>>2833920

nice. do you use really granular TA when deciding when to buy or just eyeball it?

>>2833868
are you the same guys that sit at roullette tables, and tell the losers "you should've put it on [insert color or number here]?"

Finding the bottom is not easy. Thanks for point out such an EASY as fuck strategy though. That's why we're all millionaires here. DUH? SO EASY!

>>2833928
>Buy at X

still waiting on bitcoin to drop to X (i.e. $999)

>>2833868
This guy is fucking retarded.

Sorry but buying a companies stock does not mean you a are a "partner" with that company. WTF does that even mean.

If you buy a stock, you hold a worthless piece of paper that other people are willing to buy for X dollars. A company can do a number of things to manipulate their pieces of paper, look at the way IBM has been losing revenue for multiple quarters in a row, but through "creative" taxing, as come out with better EPS.

If you think stocks are really "shares" of a company like you own some of the business, you're an idiot. You own pieces of paper and if you arn't aggressively trying to maximize your gains from understanding market psychology, well then you're dumb.

>>2833971
>24/12/4 hour charts for trend
>primarily trading 1 hour chart
>use 15 min & 5 min chart for best entry/exit points
>just follow trends on 1 hour chart
>ez monies
>still will never have gf

>>2833988
>Sorry but buying a companies stock does not mean you a are a "partner" with that company
That's literally what "buying a stock" is. Holy shit are you like 16?

Your "partnership" is insignificant if you own only a small part of the company in stock, but if you buy a big chunk of it, yes, you are a partner and get a say in the direction of the company.

>>2833988
you're right, bogleheads community are fucking idiots.

And more to your point, they should have done a better job at explaining EVERY fucking nuance in regards to the valuation of shares and the factors that dictate price/worth for every company and every unique situation in their 5 minute beginner video.

a+ on critical thinking, anon

>>2833988
4chan is 18+ faggot

>>2833998
I used to think TA was complete BS until I watched a few of the chart guys videos. Now I'm impressed by people who can actually do this shit.

also, ditch alex jones and anime and you'll probably get a gf

>>2834045
>ditch alex jones and anime and ...
Fuck that noise.

>>2834045
TA is only useful if you know what you're looking for already, sort of like how a map is only useful if you have a destination in mind.

>ditch alex jones
>ditch anime
I'd rather stay single

>>2834067
>ditch alex jones
no
>ditch anime
yes

Well today I actually held overnight for once and turned a loss into a profit. How often does that happen though? Sometimes surely it will just never rise again.

>>2833928
y is a negative number

honestly the biggest problem is you're a huge pussy who can't hodl

>>2833998

cool, interesting. do you trade primarily like btc/eth or any coin? does this work on all of them?

>>2834045

nobody listen to this guy, he fell for the gf meme.

>>2834045
you mean ditch bill hicks, alex jones is a shill working for CIA biz. pretty obvoius

>>2834127
i only trade BTCUSD; there's not enough liquidity or stability in the other markets for me. LTC and ETH maybe, but I've never tried it.

>>2834277

oh, okay, cool...

i'm kind of in a similar position as you:

>live innawoods
>watch alex jones
>not poor
>also no gf

but

>not smoke weed while trade
>not rich but trying
>didnt used to trade on wall st.

after you buy, do you hold and then sell at a predetermined target, or do you just sell when you're confident it's going down?

>>2834432
On crypto I do two kinds of trades mostly; depending on time of day & what's driving the market
>low volume no news daytrading
identify buy/sell signal; check whether matching or against longer term trend, flip coin on whether to take trade or not, take trade and immediately at 2% profit or reversal signal close trade
>2% / day is phenomenal so if i get 2% i won't enter any new positions that day, i almost never take trades against the longer term trend unless signal seems really strong
>high volume news driven markets (today)
identify trend, look for good entry point into trend, let trade run until reversal signal
>these trades can last days-weeks and i often "pyramid"; as the trade moves in my direction and free margin is created, i'll invest the new free margin in the same direction as the original trade if another good entry point comes up (these are the trades that make you huge money, e.g. the daily MA crossover in late June made me sell at ~2500, then i sold more at 2300, then more at 2100, and finally close position at 1950 because the RSI showed selling pressure was decreasing. Now I am waiting for another good short entry point because the daily chart still has MA crossover pointing to bearish, if that reverses then I will consider entering into a long position at a good entry point

>>2833868
FOMO on top of emotional investing if these "larpers" are really using their savings to trade crypto.

>>2833920
This guy is on the right track. "Buy low sell high" is a classic principle, but it applied to when stocks were moving by fucking telegram. The market behaves way more fast and chaotically, especially with bots. Set a reasonable expected cash out, and a reasonable stop loss.
It's literally that easy but most fuckers on here want to be fucking Gordon Gekko or something in a seriously volatile market and are surprised they get punished.

>>2834432
best advice I can give you for successful trading is entry/exit should not be your main focus; your main focus should be learning to size positions correctly (don't ever go all-in, don't ever get margin called, don't put more than 10% of your trading capital into one order EVER) and tracking your trades to see if your system has positive expectation (sum of trade P&L / # trades > 0). Once you have both of those you're making money with your capital with limited risk, and you're in the top 10% of traders.

>>2833988
so if stocks are worthless how come you can make board decisions if you own <50% of them you fucking maroon. They're literally the backbone of supporting a company, which is why you own a share. Yes we apply the values ourselves, but the same principle goes for money and we still use that shit don't we?

>>2834641
You have no idea how this shit works. I will teach you.
>The Board of Directors is elected by shareholders to oversee management
>management runs the fucking company
>shareholders only vote for board members and major decisions e.g. merger
>shares have nothing to do with supporting companies, they are a one-off way to raise capital by selling part or all of the company to the public
>once the initial share offering is done, the company makes no more money off stock except through buying and selling it like everybody else
>the value of a share is the claim on future earnings of that share of the company
>like loaning a friend a dollar for two dollars tomorrow, a share is like loaning a company a dollar in exchange for the money it makes on that dollar forever
>stock markets are where people can exchange their "loans" to other people, so they can get the money they invested back in a lump sum rather than getting little payments periodically
>depending on how the company does, the future earnings of the company change, which changes the value of the share

>>2834584
>Set a reasonable expected cash out, and a reasonable stop loss
I like the saying "sell when you can". I've taken to trading only BTC/ETH, never entirely liquidating either position just buying when eth is lower, selling when eth is higher everyday when I wake up.
I don't check the market at all during the day. I make that one trade in the morning and that's only if the market moved in either direction, and if it stayed the same or I bought/sold too much eth and need to dig further into my BTC if I want to buy I just don't buy more eth.
>>2834747
Thanks, that was interesting.

>>2834585
>>2834527

Great, thank you, I'm gonna re-read this until I get it all. One other thing though to make sure I'm understanding these figures:

>let's say your portfolio is $10k
>you never put more than 10% into an order (so $1000 at a time)
>you exit at 2% profit (2% of the traded amount right?) which would only be +$20? and then that would be +$600/month? is this right?
>unless it's 2% profit of the total portfolio?

if it's 2% of the total, I've read (not on biz) that stop-losses should be set to lose no more than 2% of your total portfolio, is that what you'd recommend? but if i were to do that, every failed trade would negate a winning trade, so i'd have to be correct a great majority of the time. what is a reasonable success rate? or is it less about focusing on success rate and more about allotting a proper amount to the trade depending on how confident it looks? this is all seemingly so simple until you sit down to do it and realize how many factors there are...

>>2833971
>granular TA
explain please

>>2834840
>$10k NAV (net asset value / portfolio)
>spotadaytrade.jpg
>$1000 max total order (if i think its now or never, i will use all $1000 at once, if i am wishy-washy about the entry point, I might start with $200-500 and scale in as I gain confidence)
>2% gain applied to total portfolio, so I want my trade to go from $1000 to $1200. (I trade with 5x leverage, if you don't use leverage you can use a larger % of your portfolio in a trade (still don't go above 40%)
>daily progress: 10000, 10200, 10200*1.02, etc.
>compounding 2% daily gives annual return of 1377.41 times your principal.

>stop losses
>2% stop loss w/ 2% target means you need to be right more than 50% of the time. 4% stop loss w/ 2% target means you need to be right 66% of the time. % based stop losses work better on longer term trades, and you should use trailing % stop loss, e.g. if the position loses 20% of it's profits, close it
>objective-based stop losses
>suppose you think 2000 is a strong support point and you want to go long at 2010. Set stop below strong support point, e.g. 1990, meaning you have maximum loss of $20 per unit on this trade. Suppose you want to risk $1000, that means you trade 50 units. Investopedia and Babypips have very good articles on the relationship between stop losses, position sizing, and what win-loss ratio you should target.

>win-loss ratio
Doesn't matter. Know a guy who was right maybe 1% of the time but he swung for the fences and made up his 99% losses, other guys will go for super small gains 99% of the time and suffer catastrophic losses 1% of the time.

>>2835008

it's not like a designated term, i just was wondering if he drew a bunch of lines and triangles and fibonacci waves and a zillion other things, or if he just went by like moving average or candles and closes or whatever

I usually sell in a 3x downward flag and buy in a 2x upward flag

It works about 70% of the time which is better than hodling I guess

>>2835042
I hate chart clutter. Fibonacci is a meme that is self-fulfilling. Moving averages and bollinger bands are most useful, RSI/StochRSI are somewhat useful in their capacity to confirm and alert better signals from MA/BB indicators but not good by themselves. Best indicator of all is price action and being able to read the candlesticks themselves.

>>2835079
Yeah the book Naked Forex book does a good job explaining how to trade price action alone. I got mine off libgen.

>>2833920
>>watch alex jones
muh brown ppl

>>2833868
if trading across a day/week averages at a loss, then trading across a year/5 years also averages at a loss.

if you don't understand the actual differences between day trading and making long positions, you deserve all the suffering you get out of this.

>>2833920
>smoke weed while trade
You should never trade high
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksGzn5bRFzQ

>>2835303
I can't control my emotions while trading unless I am stoned out of my mind; been that way since I was a little pupper with my paper money account practicing how to trade and I ain't gonna change it now.

>>2834067
wtf is TA

>>2835327
technical analysis (reading tea leaves)

Here's the best advice I can give to you newbie emotional traders:
Pick a coin that you LIKE. You don't even have to believe in it. Why? Because you trade on emotions and FUD is your biggest enemy. When you actually like the coin (either do to the project itself, or the team behind it or just the cutesy logo) you have that much more incentive to hold. The only time to sell is during a market crash like last week, however you don't have to predict it because a crash doesn't happen in a minute, it usually goes for a few days so you have time to properly speculate and sell, than after it's over buy back in.

>>2835340
Oh drawing lines on the chart? That's such BS, you can't predict the future. Do people think drawing a line will tell you that ETH will get hacked tomorrow or they will announce a partnership with Mastercard?

BITCOIN WARP DIGIVOLVE TO......

>>2835370
>can't predict the future
There will be a major recession + stock market crash before the election cycle of 2018. Screenshot this, or better yet prepare accordingly.

>>2835370
I think now you should learn what fundamental analysis is.

>>2835430
I don't have time for that, just gonna buy low and sell high.

>>2835445
What if I told you you can bet on the market moving and not moving, not just up and down?

>>2835462
Moving... sideways? I don't understand

>>2835370
>he doesn't know about 6d TA

Sad

>>2835506
It's called writing options. Let's say I make a deal with you: you give me $ now, and I agree to sell you BTC later at today's price. Then I make a deal with another guy to buy BTC from him at today's price for $ now. If the price doesn't move, then I made money. If I make the same deals in reverse, either way the market moves, I make money.

>>2835543
Attached wrong pic.

>>2835554
Not the right picture either.

>>2835543
Isn't that just shorting, and it only works if the price goes down

>>2834527
that call "averaging/martingale", and it converges to bankruptcy with probability 1, unless you have infinite money, which is not the case. Math 101, dude.

>>2835569
No; it's different from shorting. It's called a butterfly spread made from derivative options.
>Person A collects $10 from Person B in exchange for Person B being able to force Person A to buy his bitbean in a week at today's price (so Person B knows if bitbean goes down, he won't lose any money)
>Person A also collects $10 from Person C in exchange for a similar contract, except now Person C can force Person A to sell bitbeans at today's price (so if bitbean goes up, person C doesn't lose anything)
>The price doesn't change because bitbean is a shitcoin
>Person A now has $10 from both parties, but neither party will execute the contract, so Person A made $20 for free

>>2835592
So it only works if people are both stupid and have their money in a shitcoin (aka stupid)

Gotcha.

>>2835592
Hi I'm actuary. Why are you explaining options hedging strategies to idiots?

I obviously didn't read the thread lol but I see you correcting someone who thinks a butterfly strategy is anything like shorting.

Why are you putting yourself through this pain?

>>2835648
>butterly strategy
I meant to say "spread" not "strategy". I'm tired.

>>2835576
There's no martingale in either of those strategies...
A martingale betting strategy is basically to double up your bet size when you lose. Cost-averaging your position is based on how much more risk you can take on in exchange for giving you a better trade set up. It's not a martingale to sell half your BTC at $2500 and then sell the rest at $3000 for an average entry price on your sell trade of $2750. It's also not a martingale to sell your BTC at $3000, make $500 on the way down to $2500, close your trade, and then short $3500 worth of BTC from $2500, which is essentially what the type of pyramiding I described is.

>>2835648
>teaching the noobs
It's a nice breather between drinking myself to death and watching anime reruns. Not like any of them will make anything of it, anyway.

>pain
ITS THE ONLY FEELING I HAVE LEFT, ANON

>>2835648
I appreciate this thread, I may be an idiot, but I'm becoming less of an idiot. Everyone has to start somewhere...

>>2835690
>Not like any of them will make anything of it, anyway.

I'm saving this thread Lol. excellent posts my friend

>>2835704
I can also explain the traditional hong kong style of manipulating markets which is what the crypto whales use if anybody wants to know that

>>2835724
go for it

You "don't try to time the market" plebs are truly the dumbest fucking goys on the face of the Earth. That is a retarded boomer adage, if you bought into it you are retarded.

>>2835564
dumb aliceposter

>>2835724
Yes I'll take all the redpills I can

>>2835750
If the adage isn't correct than what is?

>>2835753
Fuck you alice is my waifu

>>2835700
Honestly, I remember learning about spreads back when I studied for the SOA exam FM. If you want to get a basic, basic foundation in that stuff, an SOA Exam FM study manual is probably a great place to start. I used the Actex brand but it's probably free online.

>>2835778
>>2835734
>>/biz/thread/S2099437

>>2835830
It's long but here is the beginning:
he first signal of whale activity is a sharp increase in the traded volume, typically volumes will spike as much as 10x the normally traded amounts as the whale rapidly floods the market with orders to push the price in a certain direction. Typically this begins by removing a "wall", a large amount of BTC placed as orders at a certain price, which seemingly resists price movement in a direction. The whale often owns the majority of these orders, and by cancelling them causes regular traders to observe that there is suddenly much less resistance to price movement in a certain direction, and this in conjuction with the whale rapidly filling those orders which were not his causes the price to rapidly jump or fall, which in turn triggers "panic buying/selling" on the part of traders watching the price movement and the removal of this wall, which compounds the rapid price movement and causes the market to enter a state of hysteria.

>>2833928

>goes to X -[Y(4)]

>>2835592
are there any crypto exchanges that make contracts like this possible?

>>2833887
how many bags do you hve? just curious

>>2835953
Not yet that I know of; but I'm pretty sure it exists for bitcoin already. There are also stocks denominated in bitcoin and bitcoin stock exchanges, but nothing that's reputable enough to be available to US traders.

>>2835880
Noted down all your posts here and the link. Will study it more throughoutly. Thanks mate.

>>2836001
No prob but if you get a lambo your vanity plate has to also say "lambo".

>>2835750
oh hai perfect trader.
can't wait to see you post this chart next summer.
you are really wise.
teach us

mfw there was literally a zhencang 10 minutes after I linked the thread about how whales manipulate BTC. Price will be back to ~2900 in an hour or so or i've been full of shit this whole thread

>>2835690

>>Why are you putting yourself through this pain?
>>teaching the noobs
>It's a nice breather between drinking myself to death and watching anime reruns.

A few of us really appreciate this. I've been studying other things obviously, but there's a lot to know, and getting insight from somebody who's doing it can be a lot better than just getting answers to questions.

>Not like any of them will make anything of it, anyway.

T____T;

If I DO make anything of it, you're invited to my house for a barbecue, in your honor.


>mfw everyone else is also invited including le skeptical trolls

>>2836001
>>>/biz/thread/S2099437
Everything he just said gets posted here like three times a week but ok.

>>2835953
Do you have any idea how easy it would be to make money if we could buy straddles like options for altcoins in crypto?

It would be like free money.

Straddles make you money whether the price goes up or down, as long as it moves. The only way to lose money is if the price stays the same, which is almost fucking unheard of with the volatility in crypto.

but remember someone is selling it to you if you're buying, so it's still tricky to make money because someone believes the opposite will happen from you and he/she might have good reason for thinking so.

>>2834079
This anon gets it

>>2836366
But I say it with style. And what I said literally happened 30 minutes later, so there's that.

See? Zhencang - from the right hand, to the left hand; from the weak hands, to the strong hands.

I love being right.