/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>23156795
Can I bet on election results? I think the gap will close a lot before nov and biden wins with 2-3 points, how do I make a bet like this

>buying high

Typical /biz/. Get dumped on.

>>23156795
You know very few Republicans answer polls right? They're utterly meaningless.

>>23156838
Some shady brit site, I guess might have your choice.
>>23156863
Nobody cares about your cope, retard

>>23156795
>>23156863
>Even Rasmussen has biden up
holy shiy trumpnis so fucked its unironicly over for him.

>>23156920
>>23156974

Lmao who's coping now? What are you going to do when the polls magically tighten down the stretch again to make it look like they were remotely close? You lying fags

Imagine even pretending Biden has a double digit lead, in that event he'd be taking 400+ EC votes and fighting for Indiana and Kansas, do you see him campaigning there? Lmfao. He's playing defense in "deep blue" states like Nevada and Minnesota.

But as I said, please buy! Buy buy buy. All in Biden!!

>>23157015
Are you a retard? Thats not how it works at all. Most of these states are like 49% biden 45% trump and its winner takes all. Flip a unfair coin that lands heads 49% of the time and tails 45% of the time, thats what the odds look like. A 400ec win would be a huge anomaly even with a double digit lead in the general. Not to mention the general election polls are counting the popular vote instead of the EC.

Take a fucking statistics class dipshit

>>23157103
And obviously in this scenario the remaining % of the coin lands on its side which would be 3rd party

>>23157103

What in the absolute motherfuck are you trying to say here? I'm saying any poll that tries to push out a Biden +12 result with a straight fucking face is lying. They call 500k people to come up with their 1k sample and have to accurately formulate a weighting to crunch those numbers.

So yes, in that event the responsibility for putting together such a fucking terrible and patently deceitful result is on them. And look at that chart right now, multiple pollsters pushing out double digit Biden leads. They are lying to you and you're buying it.

>Flip a coin!!! Durrr

No. It's entirely determined by who decides to turn out in greater force on election day.

>>23157205
you have absolutely zero understanding of stats 101 or how surveys are conducted, embarrassing.

>>23157288

Look at the brainlet, exposed by his own timid reasoning. These are national level polling numbers. When Reagan blew Carter out in 1980 he won by 9%. Any polling result that claims Biden has a +10, +11, +12 or more lead is basically saying that he has ALL of the battlegrounds locked down, and is now playing offense in places like Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, and South Carolina.

How do you not understand what I'm saying. We put absolute faith in the formula pollsters create and use to generate their final result and if their result is obviously off by that much it puts their entire poll into doubt.

Just like 2016, when multiple pollsters, WHO ARE STILL OVERPOLLING THE FUCK OUT OF BIDEN, spotted Clinton 10+ points in October. I wish I could be terrible at my job and still not get fired!

Economic depression, social unrest, natural disasters, plague, 96k businesses bankrupt, eviction crisis

You tell me what's going on.

>>23156909
the polls adjust for this and are weighed accordingly. in the aggregate they are generally accurate. the internet has somehow contorted nate silver giving trump the non-zero chance of 30% into him "writing trump off" because people do not have a good grasp on how polls or probability work.

>>23158184
> the internet has somehow contorted nate silver giving trump the non-zero chance of 30%
It wasn't just Nate Silver. I was there and watched all the polls hand it to Clinton.
Only absolute retards think the polls were somehow "correct" when they are so obviously victims of political bias.

>>23156795
>you get berated in public if you say you're republican
>your employer and coworkers will ostracize and possibly even fire you
>relatives will disown you and friends will leave you
>the entire media machine has openly labeled you as a racist/bigot/nazi and is coercing parts of the democratic electorate to chimp out and burn down cities
And after all this, you get asked: "So, who are you voting for?" Do people really think polls are reliable under these circumstances. Atleast 20% of people polled among the undecided/Biden voters will pencil in Trump once they're alone in that booth. Fucking aye.

>>23158184
>>23157288
you are going to get creampied

>>23158302
chance of winning isn't a poll dumbass

>>23158354
The chance of winning is based on the polls dumbass, but by all means continue to rewrite history and pretend this election will be different.

>>23156838

Plenty of sites. Just avoid Paddy Power. If you are not Irish they will steal your money. Cunts still owe me 10k because I bet on Trump winning. They kept my initial too! Scumbag thieves.

They declared that Hillary won because she "got more votes", bunch of Leftist cunts

>>23158400
except they were correct dumbass. polls before the vote had Clinton winning by 3% and she won by 2%. the polls were measuring the popular vote and they were correct

>>23158452
>except they were correct
Except they weren't. Donald Trump is president, I'm sorry your polls that were incorrect were wrong. They will be wrong again this election.

>>23158476
are you really this dumb that you can't understand the difference between polls and chance of winning? the polls were measuring the popular vote and they were correct

>>23158502
Are you this dumb and still believing incorrect polls? Holy fuck you are a dumbass, please bet on Biden so I can take your money again.

>>23158502
why does the popular vote matter when it doesn't determine who wins? It's not even indicative of who will win

See: the 2016 election

>>23158515
>>23158517
go back to your fucking holes you trump faggots.

>>23158517
Don't bother with Leftist Shills, they literally believe in polls that were shown to be incorrect.

>>23158549
Don't bring up stats when you don't know what you're talking about. Polls have been repeatedly shown to be wrong. They will be again this go around.

Imagine putting Biden at +10 lmao

>>23158515
how can the poll be incorrect if it was correct? the poll measured the popular vote. Clinton won the popular vote. imagine being so dumb you cant understand something simple as that

>>23158517
when did I say that it matters? I simply said the poll was accurate since what it measured was accurate

>>23158580
whoa bro these polls that measure popular vote sound pretty useless, why don’t they measure who will win instead

>>23158502
are you really so dumb that you think the polls said she was winning by 3%? They said she had over a 90% chance to win several times.

With that said I wouldnt be surpised if Joe wins and crypto will crash along with the markets and then BTC will go parabolic in 2-3 years after the election

>>23158616
I don't think you understand the definition of a poll. a poll simply counts votes, calculating a chance to win would require complex speculation

>>23158669
are you honestly so dumb that you STILL can't understand the difference between a poll and chance to win? please keep trying brainlet

>>23158517
>>23158580
The fact that both of you are little sophistic niggers arguing over semantics and unable to understand each others points or willfully ignoring others points makes you both nigger faggots.

>>23156838
PredictIt

>>23156795
Look into Trafalgar Group’s polling from 2016 and this year

>>23158688
I understand his point, he is either ignorantly or purposefully confusing polls with chance of winning. polls are more scientific and fact based, chance of winning numbers are widely speculative and usually wrong.

he is trying to make polls look wrong by showing that chance of winning, something completely different from polls, was wrong. its basically like saying ethereum is shit because tron is shit

>>23156795
Lol voting on joe Biden hhahahahahbahaabahahaahhH land slide for trump check em

>>23158742
>confusing polls with chance of winning
Guess what the chance of winning is based on dumbass?

>>23159035
>coca cola is based on water
>therefore coca cola is water
nice logic retard

>>23159072
>unable to grasp that the chance of winning the election is based on the polls
Please put your faith in the polls again and bet money on Joe Biden. Literally easier than taking candy from a baby.

>>23156795
Why is this not on /pol/ ffs gtfo here

>>23159105
>unable to grasp that just because chance of winning is based on polls that doesn't make it as accurate as polls
imagine being so dumb you can't understand such a simple concept

>>23159072
>>23158742
>>23158682
what I’m getting from this is that polls have no value whatsoever

>>23159152
I never said polls had any value, I simply said the polls were mostly correct. something can be correct and still have no value

>>23159182
>I never said polls had any value
The absolutely cope lmao

>>23159195
>retard with 1st grade comprehension
imagine living life with below 40 IQ

>>23159214
>waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

>>23157447
>but my GME stonks

>>23159230
>can't make arguments, can only post pictures
classic 40 IQ brainlet

>"im voting for trump but wont tell you"
>"i like biden but also wont actually go vote"
are options every poll needs to be considered accurate

>>23158421
Did you accidentally bet on "popular vote"? Or perhaps they had an asterisk(*) next to the word "wins" and had a bunch of bullshit rules about how winner is determined. It's dodgy but technically your own fault for not paying attention.