/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>21633092
Why is it going to crash? I know lumber futures are way way up but that's about it

>>21633092
>i know how to make easy money
>expects answers to be handed to him without even giving a clue in exchange
try reddit

>>21633092
lumber prices are increasing. not sure how higher profits make for a crash.
t. builder

>>21634816
Only thing I can think of is that we're potentially headed for a big mortgage crisis, which could end up with a huge drop in construction demand.

>>21634104
>>21634816
Right now lumber futures are artificially high because mills slowed down production because they were anticipating a slowdown due to COVID-19. They're now ramping production back up, but it takes a while to replenish supplies.
That combined with the housing market is going to crash at the end of the year or the beginning of next year means those prices are going to take a massive nose dive.
>source: don't worry about it

>>21633092
>I know about when it's going to crash
go on...

>>21634907
That's just part of it. They're going to go back down regardless. This was artificial/intentional

>>21635064
end of the year / early next year
Alright, I've given you info, now help me out a little

>>21634907
Go short lumber futures by using a calendar spread on the options so you earn theta while you wait for the price to crash. Implied volatility is high right now, so you wanna avoid paying for theta.

>>21635065
>>21635108
I don't know to be honest, but you do get some knowledgeable anons here who'll hopefully help you out.
>artificial/intentional
You mean on top of them cutting supply in anticipation for COVID?

>>21635108
Your only option is lumber futures or related companies

>>21635108
ok so like this anon said
>>21635333
but be careful with raw materials futures because for obvious reasons those are heavily manipulated

I'd put my money moreso on what fortune 500 companies require a constant supply from the lumber industry but I've no knowledge of that

>>21635023
>source: don't worry about it
An economist without much if an education.
That guy's pretty decent.

>>21635225
Can you write your theoretical trade? Selling a front month put and buying a longer term put at the same strike correct? He’s going to cap his gains a lot in a calendar spread if the event happens before the front leg has expired and isn’t it likely the broker would close out the trade at or before expiration if the front month put he sold was deeply ITM?

>>21633092
>How do I short the lumber industry
buy an axe?

Sell Lumber (Globex) (CME) contracts

>>21635269
>You mean on top of them cutting supply in anticipation for COVID?
Nah, just that part

>>21635579
gonna make it

>>21635023
>housing market is going to crash at the end of the year or the beginning of next year

You're offsetting your short of the lumber industry by your prediction that the housing market is going to crash... why not just directly short the housing market instead?

>>21635579
>An economist without much if an education.
respect

>>21636207
Lumber will crash more and it will happen even if the fed prints enough money to keep housing alive.

Short lumber by buying steel. Its the new wood. Steel stud outside sales fag here.

>>21636962
Steel studs fucking suck.
t. commercial electrician

>>21637156
Bro, you no like the punches 2 ft on center? Or cause it tears your wire without the rubber guards?

>>21637634
I guess I don't have to drill holes through it, so I'm not used to actually working with pulling romex through wood. I just hate how flimsy they are. If I had them in my house, I would feel cheated. They feel like cheap pieces of shit.

>>21637796
haha well I've got some 16 gauge (054 mil) for ya if you want to spend the money. No one will be driving through your house anytime soon.