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19223643 No.19223643 [Reply] [Original]

>Highlighted links
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4343722-talking-tanker-trade-podcast
[YouTube] Is The Oil Tanker Trade Over? Weekly Market update 5-16-20 (embed) (Overview of tanker thesis)

> Tanker education
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012316/crude-tankers-business-transporting-oil.asp
https://lawexplores.com/the-tanker-market-current-structure-and-economic-analysis/
https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/tanker/
https://www.euro-maritime.com/index.php/navigator?id=3080

>Tanker rates
http://www.crweber.com/ (no https)
https://twitter.com/TankersInt

>Maritime news
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/2013/02/tanker-track.html
https://www.freightwaves.com/american-shipper
https://shipbrief.com/

>Companies
https://pastebin.com/TnN1aeQz

>Oil news
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php (look at that V, lol)
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/commodities/oil
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/
https://nhentai.net/tag/squid-girl/

>Past earnings reports (alphabetical)
ASC: EST EPS $0.14, actual $0.20.
DHT: EST EPS $0.54, actual is $0.44 (divvy of $0.35).
EURN: EST EPS $0.86, actual $1.05 (divvy of $1.10).
INSW: EST EPS $1.45, actual $1.49.
NAT: EST EPS $0.26, actual $0.27.
NNA: EST EPS $0.00, actual $0.94.
OSG: EST EPS N/A (Q4, 2019 was $0.12)., actual $0.28.
STNG: EST EPS $0.49, actual $0.82.

> Earnings report(s) expected today
FRO: EPS $0.84, divvy $0.70

> Upcoming earnings reports calendar
TNK on 5/21, pre-market
SFL on 5/29, pre-market
TNP on 6/4, pre-market

>Oil futures rollover date
June 22, 2020

Previous thread:
>>19206029

>> No.19223690

>>19223643
>[YouTube] Is The Oil Tanker Trade Over? Weekly Market update 5-16-20 (embed) (Overview of tanker thesis)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I82iGHr3Xg

>> No.19223714
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19223714

a doubloon for your troubles.

>> No.19223724

Haha they have 6 girrilluan barrels of oil they are panicked. They are shook. Where will they put all the oil. Haha hff aha we rich we rich butch

Today is the day oil goes to minus 6 gorrillian $$$ because where are they going to put the oil. Duh. Where will they put it haha easy money hahahahaha

>> No.19223730

>>19223690
tl;dr is that short term gains will help offset long term spot rates declining but not enough to affect share prices in positive upward movement

>> No.19223739
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19223739

[HATE TANKERS]

>> No.19223753
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19223753

Wow, he admits this economy is a rollercoaster ride kek. I like him, he should do all the talking instead of the woman.

>> No.19223769
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19223769

>>19223724
hello shill, there are about 200 million. thanks.

>> No.19223771
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19223771

kek how coked up are these analysts

>RANDY SAYS "HOWDY"

>> No.19223778

>>19223753
>he admits this economy is a rollercoaster ride kek.
haha wow so smart! thats a fucking woman level analysis

>> No.19223827

"THERE'S AN ELEPHANT IN THIS ROOM"

>> No.19223869
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19223869

ROLLING DOWN, TO OLD MAUI, ME BOYS
ROLLING DOWN, TO OLD MAUI
WE'RE HOMEWARD BOUND
FROM THE ARTIC GROUND
ROLLING DOWN, TO OLD MAUI

>> No.19223893

>DEMAND DESTRUCTION WAS NOT AS DEEP AS PREDICTED

>> No.19223894
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19223894

>>Another important date
>May 19th, 2020 (you know why)

Why was this taken out of the OP?

>> No.19223902

>>19223771
>dat tie

>> No.19223909

>the US data is normally more, uhh, accurate

>> No.19223923
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19223923

HAHAHA THIS FUCKING GUY

>JUST DRINK SOME TEA GUYS

>> No.19223935

>>19223894
No one ever cared about that date, I dont know what you're talking about. Just focus on comfy divvies and falling knives. Big gains soon in Q3 of 2022

>> No.19223939

Sore throat from seeding and feeding your way to the top.

>> No.19223940

now for the dump

>> No.19223950

>>19223909
kek. I guess we're all watching texas and california.

>> No.19223957
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19223957

>>19223894
because it's now may 20th?

>> No.19223959

>>19223769
Close to peak! That's bullish right when they dont need tankers anymore tankers will moon. Moon I tell you. All stocks moon as they bleed money go bankruptcy

Bankruptcy =Lambos

Not Lamborghini but jambox we rich nao

>> No.19223969
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19223969

>Looks like we have to figure out how to transport oil in the cloud.

Kek. Valuations really are pure joke level at this point. I REALLY like that he wasn't shy in suggesting potential consolidation.

>>19223778
Rare for a company to admit it though.

>>19223894
Because it is May 20th.

>> No.19223976

It's fucking over

>> No.19223982

Haha Brandon was wrong we only lost 65% of our investments brandon so dumb

>> No.19223989

>>19223969
>Rare for a company to admit it though.
not really, I've heard the same from many earnings calls in the last month trying to explain away volatility to nervous bagholders

>> No.19223997
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19223997

>great divvies
>great conference
>stock goes down
Guess it's time to kill myself

>> No.19224022

>>19223982
why is brandon always right? i hate him hes a fucking idiot! but hes always right! im so frustrated and angry that oil didn't go triple digit negative! he's a fucking JP Morgan insider trying to get me to sell my 45 shares of DHT!

>> No.19224026

We may have lost our $$$$ but think of the fun times we had knowing that oil goes negative every month, helps us lose faster!!! Yay!

>> No.19224052

>200 million floating
>API reports a 4.8mb draw
anyone got a sense for the numbers implications other than muh gorillions?

>> No.19224060

>>19224022
>he's a fucking JP Morgan insider trying to get me to sell my 45 shares of DHT!

We are so smart we figured this out we deserve our huge profits when oil goes negative yesterday

>> No.19224082
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19224082

>>19223957
But nothing happened on May 19th

According to this retard >>19223969 it was supposed to be the "days of prophecy"

>> No.19224091
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19224091

>>19224026
>>19224022
just stop guys i know i fucked up buying DHT, you don’t need to rub it in

i admit you were right now go away please

>> No.19224121
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19224121

Brandon was actually right and I feel awful knowing it

I dumped my holdings. Some were down 30% in a fucking month.

The fucking RTX I bought at $52 is back up to almost $60. 12% in a fucking week.

Such wasted money

>> No.19224133
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19224133

More like LastInLine

>> No.19224161

>>19224121
You really want to feel bad for somebody? I was swing trading NAIL a month ago when I put 80% of my total portfolio into this horse shit.

>> No.19224185
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19224185

>>19224091
>>19224121
hehehehehe, you guys are cute - keep trying

>> No.19224190

>>19224082
It was supposed to have rollover due to high open interest and no space to store oil, instead it was manipulated to prevent another crash like last time. People who have more experience in oil would have known that, but we're just poor tankertards and not oilchads so we thought oil prices would reflect the actual situation and the contango would end near the date rather than be algorithm'd away.

>> No.19224191

>>19224082
that anime fag is easily the single dumbest person in these threads you could screencap any random post that faggot makes and it becomes instant cringe porn

>> No.19224224

>>19224121
>è sold?

>> No.19224235
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19224235

>>19224190
>>19224191
This footfag was convinced that oil was "going to the abyss of hell" on the 19th, the funniest part is that other people actually listened to him

>> No.19224271

>>19224235
It was always a long play! We were always going to buy high and hold for 3 years waiting for returns! It was part of the plan you fucking JP Morgan shill! I will never sell my $150 worth of tankertrash!

>> No.19224311
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19224311

>>19224185
i wish i was larping, i really do hate this garbage

those shitposters are right, if I sold 2 weeks ago I wouldn’t be down 30%

>> No.19224330
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19224330

>>19224311

>> No.19224339

>>19224235
The only reason to believe otherwise was if you had informed yourself about oil to know how manipulated it is. On fundamentals it should absolutely have gone to shit, logically. The situation in every single respect was worse than last month.
It's our fault for believing in the free market.
On the other hand, including the divvies and the calls I sold, I'm in the green for tankers overall so I can't complain. After fro and eurn ex-div I get the fuck out and see what else I can play. Maybe uranium can be cool.

>> No.19224388

brandon was right...

>> No.19224394

>>19224339
>The situation in every single respect was worse than last month.
It's not though, theres so much data showing demand increase, production decrease and storage capacity increase. You chose to ignore it then and continue to do so now so that you can cope by blaming some outside manipulating force. It's much easier than taking the ego hit like this brave anon >>19224311 and trying to improve.

>> No.19224475

>>19224311
If it makes you feel better I had over twice that much in DHT before I liquidated

I feel liberated being out of it now. These things were going nowhere but down.

I still feel stupid for listening to random internet people who are so emotionally attached to stocks and have confirmation bias on everything. It's all clear to me now, but it's still really embarrassing I was on that train for over a month. It's a REALLY bad investment strategy. My stocks I picked with a mix of fundamentals and my gut have been doing so, so much better.

>> No.19224497
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19224497

this whole thing was bullshit from the beginning and we all got scammed
pretending that it's always been about a 2 fucking year turnaround is bagholder cope

>> No.19224519
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19224519

>>19224311
We tried to warn you

>REMEMBER REMEMBER THE 19TH OF MAYVEMBER

Retards actually thought we'd see repeat of last month after it was saturated on the news. Then they became enthralled with a class of stock because of muh ships. You guys bought the news, you bought the top

>>19224475
It's okay, as long as you never posted HODL SEA CAT

>> No.19224555

Sold all of my tanker shit today bros. I feel free for the first time in a month. Now everyday at market open it won't be the same red shit everyday.

>> No.19224560

>>19224519
At least I can say I never started posting sea shanties and worshipping pictures of boomers and cats.

>> No.19224577

>>19224339
>On fundamentals it should absolutely have gone to shit, logically.
Isn't it fundamental to know that the market is jewish and that jews don't benefit from Orange Casino Jew losing his precious economy?

>> No.19224606
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19224606

>>19224082
>>19224191
You guys can shill, but no reason to bully.

>> No.19224612

>>19224394
>theres so much data showing demand increase
Official data showed 30% LESS demand than projected for this period, india delaying reopening, production higher than expected (iraq not cutting, pbr who said they had cut production actually revealed they were lying and stroke a deal with some unnamed tanker).
The only good news for supply was china importing more oil than in the same period in 2019 but that doesn't at all outdo the rest. Moreover, the china numbers are merely estimated by satellite imagery, and all estimates widely differed (by over 20%). The API numbers were specific about the fact they were not counting the saudis on shore when saying there's a drawdown, so that figure was a lie; other organizations included the saudis to conclude there was significant buildup. Even despite this, API confirms much higher buildup than expected for all non-crude (up to 100% higher).
Not only that but I can't find a way to interpret the price action yesterday except by the thesis that we were completely correct. Do you have another hypothesis? As a reminder: there was over 10k OI (3x more than last month) until 2:00pm, at which point, starting at precisely 2:00pm on the dot and ending at precisely 2:29:59pm on the dot, the entire open interest vanished by trade volume 10x higher than the entire day, and also similarly higher than the previous day.

>> No.19224641

Love these negative threads - Perfect time to buy bags

>> No.19224668

>>19224606
by definition you're the one who has been shilling non stop for weeks no matter how ugly the situation got

>> No.19224711

>>19224612
>for this period
We go over this everyday, you keep comparing numbers to pre-lockdown rather than peak lockdown. Things are improving and you ignored the data. You were wrong, accept it like a man and move on, not gonna bother reading the rest of your cope.

>> No.19224730

>>19224641
Goldman and Fidelity think the same probably

>> No.19224754
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19224754

>>19224606
>no reason
You lost some people thousands of dollars you fucking asshole and you call others shills?

>OILMAGEDDON

>>19224641
Post your new positions right now. I want to see those receipts of all the new tanker stocks you just bought today

>> No.19224757

>>19224711
No, I'm comparing projected numbers by OPEC, rystadt, API, EIA, etc. post-lockdown for post-lockdown estimates. Nobody except you is talking about pre-lockdown numbers. I understand that, being completely defeated on that front, you have no choice but to build strawmen since you have no arguments, but you could at least try a little harder, couldn't you?

>> No.19224772

>>19224730
No one gives a shit about 15 retail gamblers. If you look at the numbers all robinhood retail retards are still holding their bags from peak. Its the big players that cashed out.

>> No.19224871
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19224871

>> No.19224875

>>19224754
not like you guys ever post your positions

>> No.19224886

>retardstock general

>> No.19224912
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19224912

>>19223771
>mfw I have the same tie as RowdyRandy

HOWDY PARDNERS

>> No.19225030
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19225030

>>19224641
That's what I'm thinking FRO is looking good right now might pick up a few thousand shares

>> No.19225075

>>19224560
>worshipping pictures of boomers and cats

Someone post that boomer pic from yesterday

>> No.19225144
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19225144

>>19225075
May St. Lawrence Carroll have mercy. They know not what they say. They know not what they FUD.

>> No.19225154
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19225154

>>19223724
>>19223778
>>19223894
>>19223935
>>19223959
>>19223982
>>19224060
>>19224082
>>19224091
>>19224121
>>19224133
>>19224191
>>19224235
>>19224271
>>19224311
>>19224330
>>19224388
>>19224394
>>19224475
>>19224497
>>19224519
>>19224560
>>19224577
>>19224668
>>19224711
>>19224754
>>19224772
>>19224871
>>19224886
>>19225030
>>19225075
Kek. You faggots have nothing better to do?

>> No.19225171

>>19225154
as long as it takes me to claw back the $2g i lost to this bullshit scam, i'll be here

>> No.19225189

>>19225144
based!

>> No.19225241

>>19225030
>FRO is looking good right now
Oh! It wasn't looking good last week when it was 7.50$??
Last week it was an insane proposition.

>> No.19225276

>>19225154
I'd rather warn other people to get out of this shit

>> No.19225287
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19225287

>>19224668
What can I say, fundamentals are great, outlook stronger, cash flow higher. Investor sentiment is what is holding things back, and I never heard of a scenario of a company going to 0 when making fist fulls of money so long enough the investment is secure, divvies in meanwhile. Look at it this way, it is a helluva better value and fundamental play than airlines.
>>19224754
To be fair, I never told anyone to short oil. Tankers went up yesterday, so no one lost money on May 19th plays if they were only tankers.

>>19225144
Blessed be St. Lawrence Carroll. Anoint thine stocks to yield us many profits.

>>19225030
Based.

>> No.19225294

We should turn these into weekly threads every Friday. It looks like anons just want to shit on rock solid investments because (((((???)))))

Most of this has become noise anyways.

>> No.19225297

>>19225241
It was at 7.20 some time before that.

>> No.19225331

>>19225287
>well, TECHNICALLY...
are you a jew? because you're starting to sound like a jew and i am gradually beginning to hate you

>> No.19225349

>>19225294
I'm still hoping for a response on >>19224052

>> No.19225352

>>19225287
If you actually cared about value and fundamentals you’d be telling people to stay in cash rather than catch falling knives during a black swan event.

>> No.19225416

>>19225349
I don't play tankers for the contango, so I don't really care? OilAnon is most qualified to answer your question, but I haven't seen much of him recently.

>> No.19225426

>>19225294
>rock solid investments
Rock solid investments don’t drop 30% in a month and have years of stagnation in debt that only a once in a lifetime contango can pay off.

>> No.19225450

>>19225416
he conveniently announced he'd be gone for the week to "prepare for exams" or some shit like that, a couple days before his bullshit was due to start happening and that has APPARENTLY kept him off the internet for 100% of that time

>> No.19225471
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19225471

>>19225416
>but I haven't seen much of him recently.
wonder why

>> No.19225482

Why is tk up 7%

>> No.19225488

>>19225416
yeah, he's off studying. I'm not really interested in the contango. DESU, leave futures and spot prices high while there's low demand. It will end up making an even more dire situation for US Shale, i think.

>>19225450
lol, posting on 4chan isn't a job, you stu-.... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

>> No.19225507

>>19225241
I just dont want yall selling yet you need to bleed a few more weeks

>> No.19225508
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19225508

>>19223643
>DHT down another 2%
Every fucking day I wake up to see it bleed another 5% I can't take it anymore lads. It's already lost its entire dividend payment and MORE in just three days.

>> No.19225549

>>19225508
but the divvies are so comfy!!!

>> No.19225566

>>19225508
Yeah, fucking hell. But I am not selling yet. Another 50 cents down? I don't give a shit anymore.

>> No.19225616

>>19225508
I got out of it.

I feel better

>> No.19225649

>>19225508
when the shoeshiners get out it might be time to buy in imo.

>> No.19225666

>>19225426
You don't understand the long term value of tankers. I'm willing to hold on for at least 3 years. They dropped off 30% in one month because the super contango created an influx of retail investors, then the institutional guys dumped it. Right around now would be a good time to start averaging down, considering we're teetering towards 52 week lows. The Net Asset Value of a lot of these companies is expected to double within a year. A $1,000 increase in time charter rates represents $50 million dollars worth of surplus income for a company like Scorpio Tankers.

Some other factors that contribute to bullish sentiment is the historically low orderbook and (eventually) the increasing spread between bunker fuel as a result of IMO2020.

The stagnation in debt won't be payed off by a once in a lifetime contango, but most of these companies have extremely low break evens and with enough time will rid themselves of their debt. If you listen to the conference calls, they talk about their previous mistakes like buying new ships every time they get a significant cashflow increase.

We dislike risk and hate losing money. There's nothing wrong with that, except that we confuse past fiascoes with future disappointments. STocks that have declined in price are tainted, even though the lower price at which we can buy them covers a multitude of old sins (50% book value in this case.) So we let our analysis be colored by an emotional taint that hinders our efforts at producing an unbiased picture of a company's prospects and a security's value. We love winners more than we should, and we avoid losers so that we don't notice when situations improve and yesterday's failure is tomorrow's comeback of the year.

I know that most of the people in this thread are deadset on being correct about their thesis, and that's correct from a historical standpoint. But if you shift your view from the past and present to the future, you might find yourself re evaluating your position.

1/2

>> No.19225698

>>19225549
You fucking faggot a 35 cent divvy doesn't do shit against a $2 loss per share

>> No.19225719

>>19225649
You are the shoeshiner

>> No.19225724

>>19225666

I don't really want to argue anymore about the current value of this sector because there's no point. Obviously the entire industry is going to be in the tank right after a historically large run up. Most of you guys just need to stop buying options and relax, go drink some tea.

This is classic value investing 101, I know most of you zoomers must take your ADHD medication to hold onto a stock for more than 3 months, but try and view the bigger picture here.

(2/2)

>> No.19225747

>>19225649
good luck waiting for that http://robintrack.net/symbol/DHT

>> No.19225786

>>19225724
if honesty had been used up front, you could've had your comfy general free of any negativity for the next 2 years while you wait for something to pay off, and the rest of us could've stayed where we were making money swing trading a volatile market

>> No.19225811

>>19224754
>You lost some people thousands of dollars you fucking asshole and you call others shills?

Tbf, he always posted with anime avatars so it was obvious to anyone that he was just a kid that doesn't know shit. Anyone who based his investment decisions on anime fags has only himself to blame.

I think more people lost money because of that OilAnon, that guy who styled himself as some sort of expert just because he copy+pasted some reports from Rystad and GoldmanSachs.

>> No.19225835
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19225835

Tankergang

>> No.19225836

>>19225724
>This is classic value investing 101
since /smg/ is such a shitfest, do you have anything else in your eyes? I'm struggling to find anything worthwhile right now. I'm good at financials and telecom, but that's about it. Anything i should try prospecting? Miners and metals look like they're getting pretty heated, not sure where it stops. Industrials might be a good place, but I'm not confident in buying yet.

>> No.19225840

>>19225747
wew lad

>> No.19225848
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19225848

>>19225724
This.

>> No.19225853

>>19225507
>you need to bleed a few more weeks

One second later
>>19225508
>Every fucking day I wake up to see it bleed another 5%

>> No.19225861

>>19225724
This is a non growth sector and attention was brought to it from contango. This is not a value play for anyone posting here who most if not all bought in at or after the peak. What a massive cope, there are a dozen other sectors that will grow more in half the time and with better dividends for the boomers here that rely on them to supplement their social security.

>> No.19225907
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19225907

>>19225171
>as long as it takes me to claw back the $2g I lost to this bullshit scam, I'll be here
bro you can literally make $2g working at McDonald's for a few weeks... let it go

>> No.19225943

>>19225907
i hope you smug cocksuckers lose everything

>> No.19225992

>>19225943
>>19225943
You stupid zoomer I didn’t buy tankers to make money I bought tankers for the divvies and fun times in this general.

>> No.19226018

whoa, what just happened to TNP

>> No.19226041

TNP up 5% today is this a good tanker stock to buy? they have fleet of 64 for 2.60 a share

>> No.19226063

>>19224612
Overproduction decreased to the point that there was no imminent danger of running out of storage within a couple of weeks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/oil-s-nightmare-scenario-of-storage-exhaustion-starts-to-fade

Plus, you're ignoring the fact that what happened last month was connected to (retail) speculation with oil funds. Those funds aren't invested in the front month anymore, so the conditions were not the same.

>As a reminder: there was over 10k OI

So what? Each day OI decreased by several 10k as players were offsetting their positions. Most had already done it in the previous days and one larger player apparently cleared the rest of his positions on the last day.

>> No.19226101

>>19226063
fuck off shill no one will believe your fake news links here, we can see through your bs

>> No.19226109

>>19225836
Why do you want advice from a loser?

>> No.19226156

>>19226109
>buffet is retarded and a true /biz/nessman
>soros is old and dumb
keep slingin em

>> No.19226190
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19226190

>>19226156
>buffet owns tankers

>> No.19226245

>>19226190
I'd have a kek if it were true. It's the attitude toward value investing.
A real case, that movie guy owns gamestop.

>> No.19226326

>>19225836
I'm not really sure, but I wouldn't advise investing in silver miners. I've been in the game long enough to understand that silver is not an effective substitute for gold. Every time we see a skyrocket in the price of silver, it just gets produced more and more, leaving a huge oversupply. Not to mention that a shit ton of mineral miners run super sketchy practices. If I had to give a hot tip, there is some interesting twitter discussions surrounding helium.

I think one of the golden rule of investing is to concentrate a larger portion of your portfolio into a sector that you specialize in. For example, I am studying computer science so I'm heavily invested in cloud flare, since (IMO) they have great room for growth.

I don't really like to give investing advice because then it turns into shit threads like these, full of garbage posts criticizing a quality thesis due to a not so great outcome.

I mean just imagine if the tanker hypothesis was correct and everyone made a bazillion dollars? It was equally possible since nobody can accurately predict the ultimate result. My point is that all the tanker shitposting bears need to stop talking. If anyone invested and lost money, then it's their fault full stop; Not some anime foot fags.

>> No.19226327

>>19226041
One of the only tankers I making money on right now

>> No.19226402

>>19226041
Share price doesn't matter, get that shit out of your head. You need to compare their value to the shares outstanding and other stocks in the sector. Do the research, all of their 10Ks are on their website.

>> No.19226522
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19226522

>>19226326
>>19226402
>the outcome doesn’t matter the point is that I can make a word salad and successfully conflate it with value investing even though historically the sector is a growth dead end

>> No.19226535

>>19226326
Thanks, that's more than enough for me.
I'm kind of weary of tech in general at the moment. I like cloud flare, but like some other anons say, "rising tides..." "falling tides..."
Anyway, generally financials generally look pretty bad to me, telecom is pretty boring, but i think VZ and T mobile will do fantastic compared to the rest who are weighted down with media. CMCSA is nice if it dips enough. I wouldn't be too tempted to touch T, but it will probably do fine. My sectors are kinda bearish, generally or hardly dipped, so I'm looking to spread out more than usual.

>> No.19226668

>>19226522
okay

>> No.19226683

>>19226535
ah, additionally, if T is doing well, it might be a good sentiment proxy for this debt based buyback bubble.

>> No.19226725
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19226725

>>19225331
Oy vey!
No though.

>>19225352
A falling knife is something that is dying. This isn't.

>>19225416
He said he wouldn't be around for a while due to work I think

>>19225835
Green day with feet, my favorite kind of day. Nice to see you again you lewd anon.

>> No.19226727

>>19225861
Such as? Could you give me some examples please?

>> No.19226764

>>19226668
Look we all make mistakes, it’s human. Sometimes you need to admit it and make peace. Tankers are not a value investment otherwise you’d have guys like Buffet holding a long term stake in them. I’m not going to go company by company and spoonfeed you balance sheets from normal years without black swan events inflating their budgets, nor am I going to spoonfeed you on ship costs and regulations and costs of upcoming regulations. If you actually did DD outside of echo chambers you’d see reality for what it is.

>> No.19226792

WHY IS FRO GOING UP?!?

>> No.19226809

>>19226764
Kek. You're a moron. Keep trying to act smart.

>> No.19226811

>>19226792
because you sold at the botom

>> No.19226824

>>19226402
holy shit just went up .15 when i was reading wtf haha

>> No.19226837

>>19226792
I told you I was buying a few thousand shares

>> No.19226887
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19226887

>tfw put everything into TNP when it was at $2.55

>> No.19226914

>>19226811
>>19226837
I didn't but sold some now.
Got to keep DCAing

>> No.19226920

>>19226792
Shakeout's over, the retailers who were going to dump their bags after FRO's morning performance have dumped them, should hopefully see a correction towards NAV in the coming days/weeks.

>tankerfolio currently up 8%, fucking mad shit

>> No.19226933
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19226933

>>19226792
Because it should. No, because since yesterday and today a ton of us have capitulated. Called it quits. Got burned out. Don't you know the Goldman by now? THAT is when you buy. When everyone quits.

>>19226837
You are very based. Thank you for your patronage, I hope to become as rich as you one day to be able to drop that much.

>> No.19226968

>>19226764
You don't need to spoonfeed me on anything because I've done my own research. I don't care if you disagree with me, but don't pretend like I'm inherently incorrect. I'm not going to apologize for having a theory, that's ridiculous. Why are you so intent on telling me that I'm incorrect? We've obviously had access to the same information, we just interpreted it differently, so I don't know why you need to impose your thoughts and opinions as an objective truth.

Also, scrubber instillation for product tankers are being delayed until the spread of bunker fuel begins to widen again. The inflated budget sheets will help to offset long term debt and cover scrubber instillation.

This market is cyclical in nature, don't try and disagree with me on that. I have a rather bullish sentiment, you have a bearish sentiment, but don't try and tell me that you're objectively correct again because you look like a stuck up arrogant moron.

>> No.19226969

>they started dancing
DOOMP IT

>> No.19226974

>>19225030
Buy order @ 7.82

>> No.19226979

Morning, ya'll. Fuck the shills, never selling. Cold dead hands.

>> No.19227026

>>19226792
Same with DHT. Getting some hopium in my vains.

>> No.19227053
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19227053

>>19226725
Just a reminder that it's both corporate policy and good manners that if you make a mess, you clean it up.

>> No.19227135

>>19226933
>because since yesterday and today a ton of us have capitulated.
Weak hands.
Always have contingency plans for when your idea fails.
And those contingency plans should revolve around selling at the bottom from fear of going down.

Tanker stock are volatile enough to DCA effectively.

>> No.19227207
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19227207

>>19227053
You sly little...I will definitely keep that in mind and be fully compliant to all contractual agreements, appearing formally at my best to fix any incidents even if I have nothing but my body and mouth at my disposal. I consider good manners to be a virtue and will go on my hands and knees to show them.

>>19227135
shouldn't revolve you mean. But 100% agree. Even if my "contingency" plan was literally waiting for divs and reinvesting them, kek. Which is possible with how high they are.

>> No.19227214

tankers going up!! is this it

>> No.19227215

>>19226063
>Overproduction decreased to the point that there was no imminent danger of running out of storage within a couple of weeks.
No.
I pointed this out last thread. The more significant factor was a ~70million barrel increase in US land storage in Texas.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/05/texas-eases-underground-oil-storage-rules-raising-concerns/111665326/
Cushing reported a draw down, yes, but I don't think you can attribute that to oil supply/demand, as we don't know how this storage was used. Notably, the Texas oil commission soundly rejected supply quotas, which would suggest that WTI producers have no intention of shuttering wells unless absolutely necessary. However, the WTI crisis has been averted for the foreseeable future until addt'l storage fills; if demand recovers globally in the next few months we won't see it crash dramatically.

Globally we are building up oil stockpiles, even according to EIA estimates - the same organization that decided not to take stranded imports into account:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/


Brent has not yet been addressed, which is the biggest influence of time charter rates, and supplies are not being drawn down as of yet. It is also trading way above EIA estimates in the low $20s. OPEC expected greater demand issues than previously anticipated and hasn't assessed compliance with promised production cuts:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051320-opec-revises-down-global-oil-demand-forecast-again-with-production-cuts-in-focus

Meanwhile China says its demand is back up to 13m (which is also cited in FRO's earnings report), but notably that information came from Chinese officials, and is contradicted by Saudi shipping activity.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Cuts-June-Oil-Exports-To-Asia.html
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/china-oil-demand-almost-back-coronavirus-levels-2020-5-1029214304

Shit is still up in the air.

>> No.19227319

Lol my tankies are up 5% across the board except tnp which is 10%. No wonder the shills are out.

>> No.19227383

>>19227215
>Meanwhile China says its demand is back up to 13m (which is also cited in FRO's earnings report), but notably that information came from Chinese officials, and is contradicted by Saudi shipping activity.
still having a lil chuckle at this one >>19223909

>> No.19227421
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19227421

>>19227319
Up 7% personally. Wow. Good day suddenly. Not gonna lie, starting to think all of our falling back there was just pricing in worst-case oil scenarios that wouldn't profit tankers. If this keeps up I am just going to tell shills "Priced in" when they say something negative.

>> No.19227433

>>19227215
>No.
Yes. Production has considerably fallen since March. This is unedeniable. Demand has also picked up since the lows. This is also undeniable.

>> No.19227435

ONWARD AND UPWARD LADS

https://youtu.be/Fk3Wu5GPSaY

>> No.19227458
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19227458

>>19227215
>The more significant factor was a ~70million barrel increase in US land storage in Texas.
they're putting the oil in balloons now
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wanted-somewhere-anywhere-to-store-lots-of-cheap-oil-11589207580

>> No.19227471

>>19227433
what is magnitude?

>> No.19227506

>>19227471
Have any arguments?

>> No.19227596

>>19226968
Theres decent evidence theres legit shills on here fudding for some reason. Either to be contrarian or to discourage interest. They dont understand board culture so they from reddit or elsewhere

>> No.19227613

>>19223959
Serious question, why do simps think that oiltankers only serve as floating storage?

>> No.19227614

>>19227215
[cont]
VLCC rates are still fucking $65,000, which is absurd. In order for you to actually believe that these rates are falling you would need to:
>Believe the oil drawdown in Cushing is real
>Believe the tankers with millions of barrels hanging out on the CA coast are going to unwind their stores soon
>Believe the figures from the Chinese government, the same government that lied to the WHO about Covid-19 and got us into this mess in the first place
>Believe that all OPEC+ countries will do what they promised
>Believe Russia will do what it promised
>Believe that oil demand will return rapidly
>Believe that there will be no second wave of demand destruction
>>19227433
>Production has considerably fallen since March.
No fucking duh. The issue is whether demand outstrips supply, otherwise stores build.
see:>>19227458
Necessity is the mother of invention, and we're coming up with new and inventive ways to store the shit. But to say that "hurr oil price up cuz demand" is the peak of ignorance.

Whether the oil storage issues will ever reach a place where tanker equities "moon" the way they have three times this year is speculation. Reserve builds are a fact. That latter fact makes the former speculation as reasonable a bet as any. As far as tanker investment goes, many of these stocks are trading below NAV in a market that by all measures set to be bullish for them in the long term, again, making them as reasonable a bet as any particularly with this shit going on in the background.

>> No.19227676

>>19227506
already above, your refutation is not sufficient. It's documented throughout the threads today and the last weeks. There's a "peaking" 200 million floating around. There's no competitive advantage to shutting down wells. No one has an incentive to shut their wells, especially when the price is up at $30+ a barrel. There's not enough of a production cut. there's not enough of a demand increase.

>> No.19227721

>>19227676
Hasn't peaked. Was merely resting
https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1262880772903534592?s=19

>> No.19227762

>>19227613
Most probably didn't even know tankers existed before this oil glut. One shill claimed tankers would go bankrupt as the oil supply chain started moving again, being too stupid to understand that tankers are an integral part of that supply chain.

>> No.19227811

>>19227721
kek, i'm being as conservative as reasonably acceptable. the only thing that would fuck this up is if CA forcibly makes people go to their offices or if it's an A or S tier reopening for CA and TX.

>>19227762
>https://www.wsj.com/articles/wanted-somewhere-anywhere-to-store-lots-of-cheap-oil-11589207580
I'd believe that if you could stop a freight train on a dime and move it again like a tesla.

>> No.19227814

>>19227614
>No fucking duh. The issue is whether demand outstrips supply, otherwise stores build.

Look. The statement was that overproduction was falling. I didn't say there was no overproduction.

I was saying that overproduction is lower, which means there's still going oil into storage but the pace is significantly reduced. As a result, there is no danger of running out of storage in the immediate future as there was in April. Add addional storage capacity into the equation and your proposition

>The situation in every single respect was worse than last month.

is clearly wrong.

>> No.19227838

>>19227811
whoops.
>tankers would go bankrupt as the oil supply chain started moving again
>tfw need to invest more money into my typistry instead of tankers

>> No.19227875

>>19227676
>There's no competitive advantage to shutting down wells.

That's what has been done though and is one of the reason why things are looking better for oil right now.

>> No.19227988

>>19227875
For the underlying product, but certainly not for the companies that shut their wells down.

>> No.19228000

>>19227814
I'm not actually the guy that said that but:
>I was saying that overproduction is lower, which means there's still going oil into storage but the pace is significantly reduced. As a result, there is no danger of running out of storage in the immediate future as there was in April
So we actually agree then! Well fuck you and your opinion that is the exact same opinion as mine.

>> No.19228078

Why are all the tankers suddenly shooting up?

>> No.19228118

>>19227875
> looking better for oil right now
Maybe spot oil prices, but that's not good for the oil industry, short or long term. It means it's in a dire strait. No one wanted to shut those wells down and they'll want to open them back up, or drill new ones, as soon as possible. Unless there's an international oil covenant that mediates the reopening of oil wells there will be a rush to recapture lost market share. In fact, OPEC countries through all this have tried to maintain exports while only cutting oil that would be used for domestic purposes.

>> No.19228125

>>19228078
homosexuality. I'd keep eyes on https://fintel.io/sob/us/fro
https://fintel.io/sob/us/dht

>> No.19228151
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19228151

>>19228078
If you read their Q1 reports and compared to what they had before it made no sense why it was tanking.

>> No.19228161

>>19228125
This one too, maybe https://fintel.io/sos/us/oxy
They stand to benefit the most from tariffs.

>> No.19228168

>>19227988
Companies have shut down wells. See US oil production and rig count.

>>19228000
Well, in my opinion lower overproduction is good news so to me it's not surprising that the market reacted the way it did. I don't have to resort to market manipulations as an explanation to what happened.

I think it's possible that the situation could worsen in the next weeks if demand grows too slowly. Wouldn't bet on that though.

>> No.19228171

>>19228151
I know, but given that oil is going up and demand is in fact more likely than ever to come back, why are they suddenly pumping NOW as opposed to in the last few weeks or upon earnings?

>> No.19228187

>>19228168
>Companies have shut down wells.
I know, my point is that this will help the price of oil, but whoever shut down the least wells will see the highest windfall from this, whereas those who have shut down the most might even go so far as to end up bankrupt simply due to competition pressure.

>> No.19228229
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19228229

Brandon help. Why are tankers on the rise now? It was supposed to be a continuous spiral in to the deep dark depths of AAAAAAAA. You promised!

>> No.19228234

>>19228187
Yeah

>> No.19228425

if you retards justify your losses by "b-b-but muh high divvy" just buy REITs while they are on firesale because even that fucked market sector is going to drop less than tanker shitcoins

>> No.19228437
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19228437

FUCK YEAH LETS GO

>> No.19228463
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19228463

>>19228078
Because we are setting sail, landlubber. Have to have strong hands to man the wheel.

>>19228229
Realistically, Brandon probably invested more into this than all of us and just wanted to keep buying cheapies.

>> No.19228580
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19228580

>>19228463
Thank you comfy feet fetish anon. While I don’t share your affinity to anime mango feet pics, I appreciate your conversation in these threads. While I gave up on short term profits on these tanker stocks long ago, I’m still hopeful and holding strong for the long term. Hold on sea cat, we’re gonna make it one day. Til then, I’ll keep coming to these generals. Here’s to comfier seas in the future

>> No.19228588
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19228588

Well lads, it was a wild ride, but the real returns were the friends we made along the way. I want to go long my boi shell, but brent worries me with the blockades at the US. When's this global oil crisis supposed to clear?

>> No.19228631
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19228631

>>19228171
If i knew exact reason i would be rich.
Could be algos got the earning info punched in and recalculated?.
Really good dividends per share, and
04.06.2020 Dividend record date. So we might see some increase until then?
Could be that having business that brings money and is not negatively affected by corona is not what markets want. If it's not hype of magic cure or you don't loose 5Bil quarter market looses stock stay the same or tank?

>> No.19228658

>>19228171
zoom out

>> No.19228693
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19228693

ALL HAIL, THE MIGHTY. HE'S ARISING FROM THE DEEP
WITH TATTERED SAILS AND INCREDIBLE TALES WE'RE CAUGHT IN ENDLESS SEAS

>> No.19228705
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19228705

>>19228580
HOLD ON SEA CAT!

But thanks anon, sorry if I do post too much or am annoying at times. I gave up on short term too, but if I get it...nice. I think we have a strong long hold, and I have 0 worries about margin since divvies will literally clear it up on their own. Very comfy position. Here's to drinkin rum on a cloudless sunny day to the gentle sea breeze. We are gonna make it, or at least return nice profits eventually. Just when.

>>19228588
Global crisis isn't clearing for 1-2 years by the most conservative estimates. So likely longer. No reason to quit longs yet unless ludicrous profit, the blockades are very good for us. Less active shipping supply, higher rates, more storage. Global supply seems up again too paradoxically to the cuts as a previous anon suggested, so....

>>19228631
Obscure but good taste.

>> No.19228719

Are tankerchads, dare I say it, back?

>> No.19228734

>>19228168
>I don't have to resort to market manipulations as an explanation to what happened
If you're talking about oil and pretending the market isn't highly manipulated, you're in the wrong sector. Supplies are quite literally determined by cartels and international politics

>> No.19228758

>>19228719
We never left, scallywag

>> No.19228761

>>19228168
>I don't have to resort to market manipulations as an explanation to what happened.
explain 95% of OI being cleared in 29 obviously-coordinated, perfectly even volume immediately preceded and followed by absolute silence

>> No.19228797

I like the tanker sector. Might buy some oil later this year when the real dip happens and keep this as a long term hold with some divvies on top. I am too deep into the industry now and selling shares would mean I lose my mental investment in the industry. My faith in long term prosperity are still there.

>> No.19228812

>>19228719
Remains to be seen, but its nice to see a little correction to at least stop the shitposting for a bit.

>> No.19228816

>>19228758
Based

>> No.19228837

>>19228580
>>19228705
It's kind of funny: I actually bought these shitty tanker companies as a long term hold, but these threads gave me some hopium for a possible short term boom. Oh well, back to the old plan.

>> No.19228841

>>19228734
TOP KEK

>>19228693
>>19228758
based

>> No.19228936

>>19228734
Well yes obviously the supply is heavily influenced by OPEC but that anon was arguing that the current price was wrong and must have been manipulated given the current supply and demand.

>>19228761
Someone with many open contracts offset their positions at once.

>> No.19228972

>>19228936
ohhhhhhhhh I see
by "i don't have to resort to market manipulations as an explanation to what happened" you meant "i'm a fucking retard who wears a mask when i'm alone in the car"

>> No.19228998
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19228998

>>19228693
We gonna make it!

>>19228837
It's okay. Just sit patiently instead I guess. Would of been exciting to see skyrockets dollars a day, but it is fine if we don't. profit is profit. Now another day or 2 like this and all of us at the start who didn't DCA really really low will be turning a total positive return.

>> No.19229933

Have we floored then?

>> No.19229959

redpill me on tankers

>> No.19229982

>>19229959
GTFO
RUN

>> No.19230062
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19230062

>>19229933
Perhaps. Dunno. All I know is oil went up yesterday, oil up today, tankers up. No more trading on inverse oil. Perhaps it means all bad results are priced in now, maybe not. But it is something to note for sure.

>>19229959
We are pirates.

>> No.19230406
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19230406

ATTENTION LANDLUBBERS, BRANDONS, DUSTINS, AND OTHER ASSORTED FAGGOTS:

FUCK YOU, NOT SELLING. IN FACT, BUYING MORE. I’LL SEND YOU A POSTCARD MONTHS FROM NOW WHEN IM SAILING AWAY TO THE MOON ON THESE SHARES.
THE SEA BE NO PLACE FOR SCALLYWAGS.
TANKERGANG RISE UP AND NEVER BE SWAYED. REMEMBER.
COLD
DEAD
HANDS

>> No.19230409

>>19229959
yarrrrrr

>> No.19230430
File: 43 KB, 550x365, Lawrence_Carroll_2.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19230430

>>19229959
>comfy
>divvies
>the open sea
>lawrence
>supercycle in the next 1-2 years
All the reasons you need

>> No.19230739

>>19230406
>>19230430
Incredibly based.

It seems all the Brandons and Dustins that were shitting up our thread have left. I am very pleased.

>> No.19230794
File: 387 KB, 1000x750, 1588782585898.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19230794

>>19230739
I know. They are all gone right now, it is...shockingly quiet. Way too quiet. Unnaturally so. They all disappeared the moment we got that green spike earlier. And even though we came down a bit off it, they haven't returned. It is strange. But much more comfy.

>> No.19230895

I miss the comfy threads from a few weeks ago. It's just been stressful the past few days

>> No.19230927

>>19230895
Meh, watching /biz/tards lose money is always comfy

>> No.19230950

Are you fags really in the red? I went green today on TNP and TK alone

>> No.19231001

>>19230950
Green, but TNK is lagging behind TK, not sure why.

>> No.19231009
File: 281 KB, 1339x1024, 1556657860381.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19231009

>>19230895
Same. If things continue picking up, we probably won't have shills anymore and can remain comfy.

>>19230950
I don't think anyone is. I am bright green myself.

>> No.19231016

>>19231001
It always does, which is why I was into tk instead of tnk. I told you guys about that early on as well.

>> No.19231088

Dht is a buy. Keep on fudding and dumping so I can buy some more for cheap

>> No.19231184

>>19231001
>>19231009
the faggot fudders want to pretend we're dumb money that buys the top but at the bottom of this dip I was at my buy in.

Dumb to hold so long I admit but how could we know the market would beat the fuck out of a thriving sector so hard?

>> No.19231283

>>19231088
The convertible notes are pretty good fud on DHT. There's $125 MM out there with a conversation price of $5.347.

If all were to convert that's a potential share dilution of 23MM shares on top of outstanding shares. And they'd be in profit even today

>> No.19231484

>>19231283
yeah owning primarily DHT is depressing, I don’t see much hope

>> No.19231554
File: 586 KB, 1000x1425, 1588626028882.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19231554

>>19231088
Based

>>19231184
>>19231283
Well, as you said, who could of guessed. I didn't wanna sell and re-enter since logically it should pick up at any moment. Too risky I thought.

Also the senior note thing is a good fud when said like that, however they thought earlier it was fudding saying the conversion went down. DHT reduced their potential share dilution, kek.

>> No.19231906

so can i use robinhood for this and how is oil being fucked affecting said tankers?

>> No.19232048

>>19231554
>The Conversion Price was adjusted from $5.6468 per share to $5.3470 per share
It was adjusted down which is very bad.

>> No.19232125

>>19232048
How. It means you get lower returns for buying senior notes. Which means it is a lower interest bond. Which is the sign of a healthy company. Explain how this is bad.

>> No.19232264

>>19232125
No it means you get it at a cheaper share price that you can flip for greater profits immediately which will drive down the overall share price immediately.

>> No.19232272

ANTWERP, Belgium, 20 May 2020 – Euronav NV (NYSE: EURN & Euronext: EURN) (“Euronav” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that today the general meetings of shareholders have approved the annual accounts for the year ended 31 December 2019, as well as the full year gross dividend of USD 0.35 per share. Taking into account the gross dividend of USD 0.06 per share already paid in October 2019, a balance of a gross amount of USD 0.29 per share shall be payable as of 9 June 2020. The shares will trade ex-dividend as from 28 May 2020 (record date 29 May 2020).

The dividend to holders of Euronext shares will be paid in EUR at the USD/EUR exchange rate of the record date. In view of this dividend payment, investors are reminded that shareholders cannot reposition their shares between the Belgian share register and the U.S. share register from Thursday 28 May 2020 9 a.m. CET until Tuesday 2 June 2020 9 a.m. CET.

Furthermore, the shareholders granted the authorization to the Supervisory Board to acquire a maximum of 10% of the existing shares or profit shares during a period of five years as from the publication of this decision in the Annexes to the Belgian Official Gazette.

>> No.19232361
File: 10 KB, 225x225, 1561148512769.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19232361

>>19231484
didnt know about limit orders when I got DHT
sitting at avg of 7.00 right now bros

>> No.19232430
File: 94 KB, 500x281, 1586440913861.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19232430

>>19232264
Hmm. DHT is making great profits and can support it though. Still not quite sure why it would be long-term bad, or why it would be done if it was a negative effect.

>>19232272
Furthermore, the shareholders granted the authorization to the Supervisory Board to acquire a maximum of 10% of the existing shares or profit shares during a period of five years as from the publication of this decision in the Annexes to the Belgian Official Gazette.

IS THIS CONFIRMATION FOR BUYBACKS?! CAN ANY ANON WHO UNDERSTANDS THIS LANGUAGE TELL ME IF BUYBACKS CONFIRMED?!

>> No.19232465

>>19232430
>why it would be done if it was a negative effect.
Because the jews that own the notes get major profit from this.
>Still not quite sure why it would be long-term bad,
Because it permanently increase the supply of outstanding shares, thus permanently reduce the worth of any single share without compensating you correspondingly as would be the case in a split.

>> No.19232533

>>19231906
If it has the companies, ya. Surplus oil leads to tankers getting paid a shit ton to just hold it each day. Many are in contract for up to 6 figures a day just to hold this oil.

>> No.19232696

>>19232430
The 3 main stages of convertible bond behaviour are:

In-the-money: Conversion Price is < Equity Price.
At-the-money: Conversion Price is = Equity Price.
Out-the-money: Conversion Price is > Equity Price.

Right now they’re in the money and will be in the money as long as the share price stays above the conversion price. Which means more dilution opportunity. For people like :>>19232361
Who bought at $7 it means his shares will be worth exponentially less as more bond holders convert to an in the money profit at lower and lower prices.

>> No.19232758

>>19232430
Negative affect for current shareholders but very positive for previous bond holders who wish to convert for big profits now before share price slides under 5.34

Basically the company is trying to attract more bondholders at the expense of shareholders.

>> No.19233049
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19233049

>>19232465
>>19232696
>>19232758
Okay, I see the play here then. DHT is one of those rapidly deleveraging, so they figure they will hand out shares I guess in exchange for deleveraging faster. Kind of a shitty move, I too need it to go to about 7 to break even. All my other tankers are DCA'ed much better. Nothing can be done though, fuck selling it at a loss while others are soaring. Still no answer on what EURN's statement meant though.

>> No.19233192

>>19233049
EURN is authorized to do a buyback equivalent to 10% of their shares within 5 years. When and how they apply it is not clear.

>> No.19233205

>>19233192
>market buy
ha

>> No.19233210

>>19233049
Luckily I’m only at 6.30 but I don’t expect it to be back above 6 this year.

>> No.19233309

>>19233049
To reiterate, par value of each note is $1k.

Conversions:
1000/5.6468= 177.186 shares per bond
1000/5.3470= 187.021 shares per bond
$125MM in issue

125000 bonds*177.186=
22,148,250 shares

125000 bonds*187.020=
23,377,595 shares

The reduction in share price increases max dilution by 1,229,345 shares. And since the new conversion price is below current market price, they have incentive to convert and dump. It's like a sword dangling above the shareholders head.

>> No.19233429
File: 65 KB, 433x482, 1584021519152.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19233429

>>19233192
YAY! EURN BUYBACKS CONFIRMED! This is extremely good news. Sure, 5 years, but that is the limit and the allowable buyback portion is enormous. Either way it is pretty good imo, extreme bullish news for EURN.

>>19233210
Meanwhile not so for DHT. eh. Well, can't sell at this juncture, and they are still making money hand over fist and going for deleverage approach which may raise NAV and value of the company and future divvies/buybacks. Eh. I wouldn't say it won't go above 6, that is ludicrous considering everything should be double at least on average what they are (on average. shit like EURN and STNG admittingly pull this average up). I fully expect to see it back above 7 at some point. Plus, there is no guarantee all the senior notes would exchange at once, many (most) logically would like to hold on for share price to go up. I wouldn't write it up as too bearish.

>>19233309
>>19233309
They already existed low though, realistically they had "incentive" this whole time until the last 2 dumps. I still don't see DHT doing too badly from this considering other market factors at play. It is just jewish and a means to more quickly finance debt, but if it was a huge problem to exist then big stable companies wouldn't be doing it neither....which they are doing them.

>> No.19233513

>>19233429
>I wouldn't say it won't go above 6, that is ludicrous
It likely won’t reach a floor until the share price is less than the conversion price. Couple that with market and sector negative sentiment and worldwide demand adjustments and there’s really no path to $6 barring acts of God and that’s not something I like betting on.

>> No.19233534

>>19233513
Don’t forget rates are dropping for VLCC so that won’t help Q3 at all.

>> No.19233871

>>19233429
Well the notes mature on 08/15/2021, semi annual coupons, next coupon payment at 08/15/2020, so most will probably wait for that second to last coupon before conversion.

Might see share dilution come august

>> No.19233891

>>19233871
Third to last coupon payment I mean

>> No.19233927
File: 30 KB, 600x441, 1582558706678.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19233927

>>19233513
STNG has a path to 30, FRO has a path to 10, EURN has a path now to only god knows where, TNP has a path to 4....I don't see DHT being left out, it isn't a NAT. Not to mention this mystical rule of the floor being senior notes simply is not applying to any other stock out there. I don't buy that and will a hold.

>>19233534
Shut up shill, they actually aren't recently and the "drop" is 3 times as much as needed to make ordinary profit.

>>19233871
>>19233891
This makes more sense than a tsunami of a million pump and dump schemers. I will watch out for that.

>> No.19234007

>>19233927
>shut up shill
>shill /SHil/ an accomplice of a hawker, gambler, or swindler who acts as an enthusiastic customer to entice or encourage others.
Stop projecting, I'm merely stating the facts, if rates continue to drop it doesn't signal long term stability and profitability.

>> No.19234366

>>19232533
oh ok dope dope dope dope. how fast would one usually trade those stocks?

>> No.19234371

>>19234007
Sorry, what'd you say?

https://twitter.com/TankersInt/status/1263099272612007936
https://twitter.com/TankersInt/status/1263035850478235648

>> No.19234459

>>19234371
>demurrage
>long term profit trends
pick one dipshit

>> No.19234609

>>19233927
TNP hit $4.8 on the previous rally. They do have $400MM high yield preferred debt but they are also sitting on $200MM cash since end of Q4 2019. Now we have 2 quarters of exceptional cash builds over Q1-Q2 on top of that and earnings is on 06/04/2020. At $2.55/share their price to book ratio was 0.16, at this point it's going to be even more skewed.

So their marketcap currently is $260MM, and at this point I think it's safe to say their cash holdings are more than or equal to that.

It's my largest holding so I'm biased but I'm expecting good things from TNP come earnings.

>> No.19234684

>>19234459
Those demurrage rates are higher than most standard tanker rates the past 3 years

>> No.19234727
File: 1.01 MB, 1903x757, 1564071025312.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19234727

>>19234684
but they're not long term profit indicators, they're a short term bonus, VLCC rates continue to fall and since markets are forward looking that hurts DHT which are all VLCC

>> No.19234816

>>19234727
I think we need to see how quickly those tankers can pass their holdings to land before we can judge how long those rates will last. I'm skeptical of the numbers coming out recently.

Like that those jet fuel tankers off the coast of europe

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-europe-tanker/tankers-pile-up-off-europes-coast-as-onshore-storage-sites-hit-limit-idUSL5N2C32X0

Stuff like that I can see sitting for a long time unless demand for air travel actually picks up.

>> No.19234837

>>19234366
They are heavily cyclical long term and volatile short term. The strong dividends and the cyclical nature lends it to longer investment rather than short term.

>> No.19234888

why is this a general?
absolute delusion and obsession about the most boring thing to exist
this is not a way out and you will not retire in a few years with this shit
just stop

>> No.19234969

>>19234888
They would make a lot more money if they just dumped everything into SPY. It's pretty mind boggling the mental hoops they jump through to keep holding.

>> No.19235087

>>19234969
ye or 50% s&p, 50% 3x nasdaq and just go to sleep

>> No.19235130

>>19228588
>but the real returns were the friends we made along the way.
Undoubtedly

>> No.19235151

>>19228588
Undoubtedly true
>>19234888
Because we enjoy it and make money.

>> No.19235163

>>19235151
yea... show your gains?

>> No.19235197

>>19235163
Haven't received my divvies yet, my friend.

>> No.19235233

>>19235197
meanwhile i'm up over 1000% on wti futures contracts.
this really is a waste of time.

>> No.19235268

>>19235233
Good for you. Won't stop my investments into the maritime industry.

>> No.19235327

>>19235233
This IS a waste of time.

But you're a liar.

>> No.19235495
File: 944 KB, 821x1500, 1588769152846.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19235495

>>19234007
>>19234371
>Currently 80k when 20k is considered great
>"B-but it fell! This is unhealthy and bad!"

>>19234609
I just could not hype myself on TNP honestly, though I get your preaching. Feel similarly with STNG. All boats rise with the tide, I think you will do great anon and we all will too. Except NAT holders.

>>19235233
Demand proof. And if you show it, I can't wait for yet another blind ignorant bull to eventually get slaughtered and wonder "why? I thought the crisis was over! But little Jonny's college funds, no!!!!!"

>>19234816
Friendly reminder clean product tanker rates are sharply increasing lately (after decreasing earlier). You are right to feel skeptical on how short stays will be.

>> No.19235580

>>19235495
>This is unhealthy and bad
Just because a retard from a trailer park wins the lottery it doesn't mean his prospects for profit in the future are a good outlook.
Rates are dropping as shown here >>19234727
Demurrage is not something that is bullish for long term returns.

>> No.19235768
File: 1.93 MB, 1075x1518, d53bac1fadc75ae6c9ac735c4e569b62.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19235768

>>19235580
Because it's sooooo bad to be, hell, even be x2 normal rates! But I will level with you because you bring the future up and that graph up.

You were dishonest with your graph because you aren't mentioning the numbers and timescale. I got the same charts too (and it is more readable since it doesn't throw all sized ships onto it at once, making confusing lines that seem low but aren't), and the full context to this is that tankers were recovering and had an already great Q4 last year, the start of the chart is also "high" hanging around 40k-50k rates at the flatline for VLCC. When again, anything above 20k is profitable for VLCC. In other words, they were simply already doing good at the start of the chart before the year started.

This means they are in fact healthy and in tandem with good health prior, not "sinking into low levels." The future of potential production loss creating demand destruction is unknown how it will balance with storage issues and demurrage, however it is still bullish considering export production for oil isn't necessarily slowing down and that due to blockades more ships will be tied into storage which offsets lower potential exports. It is wonky, no one knows, no one even knows if production WILL ACTUALLY FALL still, especially if price stays up for oil which de-incentivizes people from complying with cuts.

Furthermore, supposing for some reason they fall below Q4 rates or the crisis ends and there isn't enough oil production to transport, many ships are due for scrap which will lower ship supply, up rates yet again, and lower operating costs.

Long term is extremely bullish considering oil crisis may last up to 2 years under current estimates, and on top of that the "low" rates are Q4 rates which are "high" as well, and they can lower their own supply to offset low demand at any moment to keep rates up. The profit for these businesses is secure long term so far considering no new ships are being produced.

>> No.19235850

>>19235768
I was writing the same paragraph but you posted before I could.

Thought I'd add that the super contango allowed for tankers to have VLCC rates of $0/day and still cover the entire year.

A 1k increase in clean product tanker rates contributes $50 million dollars to net income for Scorpio tankers.

Overall, based.

>>19235580

>> No.19235940
File: 4 KB, 575x125, 1563717098509.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19235940

>>19235768
>oil crisis may last up to 2 years under current estimates
Are you implying demurrage will last two years? Coming from the same person that was convinced of -$100 oil? Your estimates are shit and so is your flawed logic about short term profits. Are you insane or a literal shill for a tanker company? The only thing that non retail investors care about are pic related. Contango is ending and profitability from it will continue to decline. How you can continue to bank profits from the past crisis which is abating has got to be pure cope.

Considering you already admitted to buying into DHT at $7 dollars that alone should be enough to discredit everything you say from now on.

>> No.19236068

>>19235940
You can download a VLCC app. They have fixed some incredibly attractive rates and still are on their ships.

>> No.19236094

>>19235940
For example:

DHT bronco 80k 58 days for an actual TCE x58 days. Its on subs so it might fall through but we shall see.

>> No.19236129

>>19235940
>Breakeven 18k
>24k rates
>80% of profits to investors

Stocks trading 50% below book value.

argument dismantled. you lose.

>> No.19236152
File: 383 KB, 536x736, 1581867824885.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19236152

>>19235850
Sorry anon, but thanks. And yea, you mentioned the scorpio point earlier but the cost-coverage thing is truly great. You made good posts earlier. At this point, I am willing to just hold and let my divvies get rid of margin and then give me funds to start trading, hopefully timed with the second market crash. I really, really think we are gonna crash again. June dividend payments I personally find might be excellent timing to free cash up without having to sell stock.

>>19235940
>Are you implying demurrage will last two years?
No, and I refuse to believe you were stupid enough to assume that sincerely. You got a cute chart there, would love to know source or metrics considering we had higher rates at 40+ dollars a barrel...or hell, higher when breaching 32 and 33.

I know you are shilling hard at this point, but I just wanted to post info for onlookers. The fact you don't bother refusing figures and facts mentioned before and go towards ad hominum while pulling an isolated excel spreadsheet crop tells me quite well that there isn't an actual response to tanker's profitability. Take the other anon's suggestion and download the app and track from there, it is much more accurate than this mystical "inferred" Excel page.

Also for the record, I averaged STNG at 16.8 and EURN at 9.8, so can't always DCA every stock perfectly.

Also this>>19236129 ,
supposing it were true by an absolute miracle (your sheet isn't), it is still profitable kek.

>> No.19236668

>>19235233
Nice larp faggot. Time to get off the 4chinz, don’t want to be late for your shift at Wendy’s

>> No.19236798

POSEIDON - MIGHTY SEA KING, RULER OF THE TEMPEST

BLESSED BE THY NAME

ACCEPT OUR OFFERINGS OF ANIME FEET AND DELIVER US UNTO THE SHORES OF THE PROMISED LAND

>> No.19236869

Not saying I have any faith in dht at this point but whats up with all these institutions loading up on dht recently?

>> No.19236976
File: 56 KB, 790x350, cuckoos_nest.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19236976

I like big boats too. Good luck fellas.

>> No.19237172

>>19236869
Confirmed great profits for the rest of the year and good dividends

>> No.19237287

Is this bagholder general?

>> No.19237376

>>19237287
Couldn't hear you over my 30% return in divvies.

>> No.19237392

>>19237287
Yep, retards brag about losing 65% to get a 5 % dividend

>> No.19237402

>>19237392
Based comment

>> No.19237484
File: 2.53 MB, 300x219, 1395518911607.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19237484

>>19224475
paw is that you?

>> No.19237522
File: 122 KB, 841x1200, 1586724845676.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19237522

>>19236798
GUIDE US THROUGH THE TEMPESTUOUS SEA OH POSEIDON, BRING US FAIR WINDS AND CALM WAVES!

>> No.19237595

>>19237376
30 + -50 is negative.

>> No.19237615

>>19225154
faggots like you that add everyone in are total losers. on top of that you have an anime pic and didn't even name the file. you're a complete and utter Loser.

>> No.19237625

>>19237392
>>19237595
You only lose if you sell fagtrons.

>> No.19237652

>>19225698
FAKE s-s-shillllll hodl sea cats!!!!!!!!!!!

>> No.19237833

>>19225698
It just means it's a better time to buy more shares

>> No.19238147

>>19235087
Do you want to know how I know you're retarded?

Holding a leveraged ETF for a long period of time WHILE we're on the brink of recession is probably the dumbest shit I've heard in my life time.

Just goes to show how dumb as fuck the Brandon and Dustins are.

>> No.19238616

>>19238147
99% of the time that's true, except now is a special condition.

>> No.19238677

>>19238147
I'm pretty sure Brandon has been gone for at least the past 2 days, btw