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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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19206029 No.19206029 [Reply] [Original]

Kraken edition

>Highlighted links
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4343722-talking-tanker-trade-podcast
[YouTube] Is The Oil Tanker Trade Over? Weekly Market update 5-16-20 (embed) (Overview of tanker thesis)

> Tanker education
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012316/crude-tankers-business-transporting-oil.asp
https://lawexplores.com/the-tanker-market-current-structure-and-economic-analysis/
https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/tanker/
https://www.euro-maritime.com/index.php/navigator?id=3080

>Tanker rates
http://www.crweber.com/ (no https)
https://twitter.com/TankersInt

>Maritime news
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/2013/02/tanker-track.html
https://www.freightwaves.com/american-shipper
https://shipbrief.com/

>Companies
https://pastebin.com/TnN1aeQz

>Oil news
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php (look at that V, lol)
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/commodities/oil
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/
https://nhentai.net/tag/squid-girl/

>Past earnings reports (alphabetical)
ASC: EST EPS $0.14, actual $0.20.
DHT: EST EPS $0.54, actual is $0.44 (divvy of $0.35).
EURN: EST EPS $0.86, actual $1.05 (divvy of $1.10).
INSW: EST EPS $1.45, actual $1.49.
NAT: EST EPS $0.26, actual $0.27.
NNA: EST EPS $0.00, actual $0.94.
OSG: EST EPS N/A (Q4, 2019 was $0.12)., actual $0.28.
STNG: EST EPS $0.49, actual $0.82.

> Earnings report(s) expected today
None. If I’m wrong, enlighten me.

> Upcoming earnings reports calendar
FRO on 5/20, pre-market
TNK on 5/21, pre-market
SFL on 5/29, pre-market
TNP on 6/4, pre-market

>Oil futures rollover date
Today (next is June 22, 2020)

Previous thread:
>>19199680

>> No.19206144
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19206144

Thank you brandon for saving me from the tanker buttpirates

>> No.19206149
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19206149

>buying tankers
>not buying oil
ngmi bros

>> No.19206174

Which oil we buying? WTI?

>> No.19206205
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19206205

Comfy divvies and good returns will come to you, but only if you reply "HOLD ON SEA CAT" in this thread

>> No.19206253
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19206253

>>19206029
>>19206149
Squid last thread made me diamonds. Love these things.

But no, seriously, so June is over now. Wtf is the aftermath? This was so jewed up, we need oilanon or someone qualified to dissect it. I cannot make sense of what I witnessed, and glad I only lost 200 dollars for it on my SCO. Ah well, DHT divvy will pay off that debt.

>>19206205
HOLD ON SEA CAT

>> No.19206254
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19206254

Well, anons, i'm in the green but barely. INSW is an anchor pulling down my portfolio despite beating earnings and by all accounts having a killer Q2, what a meme market we currently reside in.

As has been said countless times before by other anons, i'm long af. When the bear raids end and the shills fuck off to new pastures, the kikery will end.

>> No.19206285
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19206285

>>19206205
HOTEL ON SEACATTERS

>> No.19206399

this was never supposed to be a 2 fucking year trade. it was pitched as relying on short term storage
OI being completely resolved as we speak
saying shit like you always planned to be holding this shit for 2 years is bagholder cope
fucking stop

>> No.19206444

>>19206144
Lmfao

>> No.19206474
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19206474

>>19206254
Same, I am green too. I wish I had my SCO money back, but tankers seem to be doing alright, and if anything, some are trading positively with oil price. Weird. But EURN is taking a gigantic crap. Strongest fleet, worst dump. I am very much enjoying FRO pump though.

>>19206399
We transitioned from "we x10 from super contango!" to "we x2-3 on value and MAYBE x10 from bullshit!"

With the start of supercycle looming and rates still like x3 at minimum of what is needed and supply of tankers going down soon with potential buybacks on the table now, why sell? Still good value, and value eventually comes. I just don't HAVE a reason to sell if I am not in need of profits right this instant.

>> No.19206482

>>19206144
>>19206444
CHECKED

Tankcels seething

>> No.19206501

>>19206399
if it was short term then why did I buy shares in early April, retard? I'm averaging down right now as we speak.

>> No.19206508

>>19206399
YOU MUST BE A SHILL, HODL HODL HODL

GREAT DIVVY THAT WON'T BE REDUCED DUE TO REVENUE CUTS

JUST WAIT FOR CONTACT DATES, OH WAIT

WE SO RAD BECAUSE WE'RE TANKERCHADS!!!!!!!!!

US SEACATS GOT 9 LIVES

>> No.19206534

>>19206254
What an absolute shitshow of a company. Making 22M on 1.6B of invested capital.

>> No.19206538

>>19206501
first it was short term for earnings
earnings came and we tanked
and then it was short term for negative oil caused by storage issues
THEY JUST FUCKING CLEARED 100% OF OI IN 20 MINUTES

>> No.19206539

So if the trend continues, FRO reports earnings tomorrow. They see a huge spike in revenue and basically automatically guarantee huge earnings for the remainder of the year.

-5% drop in stock price, right?

>> No.19206555

>>19206029
>oil surges on more volume than the entire day combined
H O N K
O
N
K

>> No.19206566
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19206566

>>19206399
>this was never supposed to be a 2 fucking year trade
for many, but the long term position has been around for a while.

>> No.19206582

>>19206539
-50% minimum my friend.

>> No.19206601

>>19206538
Pretty sure that's gonna be at least 5 million barrels of oil delivered to Cushing? Regardless of the Trump tanker blockade it's going to smack storage. Too bad this won't reflect in the EIA reports until June.

>> No.19206616

>>19206539
it'll pump in pre-market then IMMEDIATELY tank and i wouldn't be a single bit surprised if this is the tanker companies themselves

>> No.19206620

>>19206538
>THEY JUST FUCKING CLEARED 100% OF OI IN 20 MINUTES
source?

>> No.19206642

>>19206601
you think that fucking market manipulating piece of shit doesn't have a plan for that?
you fucking WATCH tariffs get announced to stave off the next wave of reality and by the time it comes around again demand will have picked up enough to ACTUALLY take care of enough of the backlog

>> No.19206646
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19206646

>>19206538
>>19206555
oy fuckin' vey

>> No.19206679

>>19206538
What? Your tellin me they just got rid of 10 million barrel in 20 mins?

>> No.19206703
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19206703

>>19206620
tell me what you think this was

>> No.19206734

>>19206474
I was expecting a far bloodier reaction to the "moon mission" not taking off, I suspect EURN shedding the day's gains is just a modest selloff of some people wanting out. Seems like most of the people still in the trade are /longpilled/.

>>19206534
Yep, I fucked up on INSW, no getting away from it.

>> No.19206748

>>19206679
>>19206620
Yup, massive volume surge until 14:29, 0 volume since then. Someone better contact sec.

>> No.19206777
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19206777

>>19206501
Based. I was very minorly in, like 25 shares total between companies. Compared to now like....1400.

>>19206508
This was one of the lamest shilling attempts yet. I don't normally respond to shill/trolls, but that was just....sad.

>>19206538
We didn't clear all the OI, looking at the volume and making the most generous assumptions possible. It is honestly a total mystery how this is going to play out and unprecedented. Not really a cause to brag, because even if you are for oil this is concerning due to never happening before and apparent volatility so high you go from super contango to backwardation into, looking ahead in contract, apparently contango within a month's time. That isn't a healthy industry to put money in, friend. Especially with outside factors like possible China sanctions, wuflu 2, etc. looming.

>>19206539
Unironically expecting this and ready for it. I just want to hear the magic word "buybacks" during their conference and I will be running up the walls in joy. If I don't...still holding due to good earnings and a literal 100% record of beating expectations, but ah well.

>>19206566
I need to amass a collection of these celphalosluts.

>>19206734
The fact there isn't a bloody reaction and the fact some tankerchads said they are selling now has made me feel more bullish desu. Not happier, but increased sentiment.

>> No.19206877

>>19206777
>We didn't clear all the OI
checked. but you fucking watch. you have never seen jewry like what happened during those 20 minutes
OI is going to be down to some miraculously low level

>> No.19206923
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19206923

>>19206703
Ok, I appreciate your information. Why do you think this was the entirety of open interest? These only look like large spikes because the volume has been dead all day.

>>19206399
No, it wasn't.
This was a trade with the possibility of windfall in the short term. There are a billion of these trades, many with a much larger upside. The whole issue with trading is that it's impossible to pick the winners and losers.

The reason tankers were so attractive is because it's a low risk bet with an extremely high upside. You can take a huge position in tankers, hope that you make bank, but know that you can rely on fundamentals to carry you to a reasonable return regardless of whether contango plays pan out. Otherwise just throw your money at a shitcoin and pray for the best.

>> No.19206932

>>19206777
What shilling? I'm all in for you all to keep DCA into tankers and not actual oil companies. I'll need to buy a telescope to see you tankerchads up on the moon. Not today though, so just hodl on chad bro. Tankers are great because they are a good constant source of dips to buy. Nice try shilling against tankers, shill.

>> No.19206957

heh... so this is the power of the US oil industry
Im not even mad, actually impressed they pulled this off. At least now we know how things really work

>> No.19206976

>>19206777
Check'd, buying ATM/OTM puts for July/June on FRO to cover my ass if we've been scammed and the whole industry is a ponzi scheme. I'll have to take a 10% loss but it might be worth if it Brandon has had insider info all along.

>> No.19206979

>>19206923
>Why do you think this was the entirety of open interest?
because they stopped

>> No.19207067

>>19206976
Brandon pointed out that many of these stocks are down 99% in the last 20 years destroying billions in capital. but your brandonphobia went unchecked and now your money, your hopes and dreams are gone

>> No.19207106

I fell for the meme and bought DHT and FRO on the day before DHT earnings. I am red now. What do?

>> No.19207125

>>19206149
Tankers with oil inside?

>> No.19207126

>>19207067
>your money, is gone

You're retarded. I literally just said I am buying insurance on my shares so if I lose money it's insignificant.

>> No.19207171

So what happened? Did they somehow clear all the remaining oil they had on the contract? How on earth

>> No.19207192

>>19207106
just GTFO unless you love holding tanker stocks until you're ready to retire
this shit is going to take forever to go up and the industry is scummy as fuck so live the next few years HOPING they don't just fucking steal it

i should've sold everything the second i heard that dude from STNG was selling calls on his own company

>> No.19207220

>>19207171
they had to have. or they've got a gun to the head of everyone else holding june contracts
because nobody's traded SHIT since that half hour where they cleared f.u.c.k.i.n.g. e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g.

>> No.19207222

>>19207106
Not much use for tankers in the next 5 years so definitely buy more tanker stocks ride them to zero and then make some funny pictures of cartoon people crying with red faces and declare victory

>> No.19207228

>>19207192
Bugbee sold calls because of the Saudi guy getting shot. Stop being retarded. He promised to never do them again.

>> No.19207256

>>19207171
There was no oil you big dummy you believed some dumb story and got burned because you want what the boomers have but you aren't willing to work for it

>> No.19207262

>>19206642
>you fucking WATCH tariffs get announced to stave off the next wave of reality and by the time it comes around again demand will have picked up enough to ACTUALLY take care of enough of the backlog
I'm actually doubtful of this working, but we'll have to watch CA.

>> No.19207305
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19207305

>>19206566
revisionist history

>> No.19207325

>>19207192
STNG that's the company that lost billions of investor $$$ and never made a profit but somehow now that no one needs tankers anymore is going to moon

>> No.19207337

>>19207305
>Cherry picking
>only 1.5 more hours

>> No.19207392

Who my NATty beta boys getting their daily slaughter

>> No.19207403

So this is it. We lost? Is there anyway to find out who bought all that oil? Might as well sell our calls them since they pulled this thing out of their butt.

How the heck does the SEC not do something about this. Obviously someone big made the call for them to take the oil off the market.

>> No.19207419

>>19207106
Get out at the first opportunity

>> No.19207432

>>19207403
if your calls are worth anything, get rid of them
mine are zero and as long as i'm forced to stare at that red shit in my portfolio i'm going to be here

>> No.19207459

>>19207403
You still think there was some oil. Hahahahaha

>> No.19207474

>>19207403
it seems we were never allowed to win from the beginning

>> No.19207500

>>19207403
>So this is it. We lost?
absolutely not, unless you were only doing short term options or a swing. If you intended on a pre-expiry dump to negative, then yes it's over.
>>19207432 is probably right.

>> No.19207502
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19207502

Where my DHT moreeeens?

>> No.19207516
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19207516

>>19207171
after a morning of pathetic volume and a giant red dildo trading halted for an hour and a half
when it resumed it was nothing but high volume for the 30 minutes

>> No.19207527

>>19207228
>Bugbee sold calls because of the Saudi guy getting shot.

Can i get the story on this? I'm not actually holding STNG but this sounds interesting

>> No.19207531

>>19207502
I hate myself for buying DHT but it’s a good lesson learned I guess.

>> No.19207547

>>19206923
>These only look like large spikes because the volume has been dead all day.

Volume hasn't been dead. It's been a bit more than 6k in this hour so far and about 18k since 3 AM. Now keep jacking of to dudes from 80s shows you gay nigger.

>>19207403
>big guys exit their remaining positions upon expiry
>MUST BE A CONSPIRACY

>> No.19207550
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19207550

>>19207474
Why didn't you listen to brandon your dad would have been so proud?

>> No.19207557

>>19207547
>big guys exit their remaining positions upon expiry
who bought?

>> No.19207567

>>19207531
What did you learn?

>> No.19207598

>>19207567
oil is scummy as hell as well as every industry attached to it. don't put in one penny you don't want taken from you

>> No.19207619

>>19207567
Don’t listen to people with anime pictures in every post about sectors that have no historical growth and are coming off a bounce from a black swan event.

>> No.19207682

>>19207598
Or don't buy into a specific sector that has been shitting the bed because you believed retard spammers in /smg/ during may contacts about tankers when you couldn't parked that cash into oil companies during that came crash and come out fine, but go ahead, it's oils fault.

>> No.19207691
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19207691

>>19206877
I guess we will probably know for sure soon enough.

>>19206976
If we are somehow scammed I will commandeer a tanker personally.

>>19207305
Not gonna lie, I will own this one, I was wrong on oil. But at what cost?

>>19206923
What do you think actually happened today with oil, anon? How does this play out in the future?

>> No.19207719

>/tsg/ still a thing
Kek are you brainlets ever right?

>> No.19207720

>>19207682
>what happened from 2pm to 2:30pm where insiders cleared out 100% of OI is perfectly fine
>this is fine

>> No.19207727

>>19207557
At this point, most of the buyers are those who previously had sold futures and are now offsetting their positions with purchases.

Not that any of you guys knows about the basics of futures trading, you'd rather be determined that the FED/Jews/Algos/xxx be behind it when things you don't understand don't pan out as expected.

>> No.19207747

>>19207516
this is next level kikery at its best.
the game was rigged from the start -.- should have known these kikes wont let oil drop again even if the fundamentals scream for it to do so. that was pretty much the point where i say fuck this shit.
tomorrow: long dji and ride till next year. im sure the kikes make it work

>> No.19207803

>>19207719
I predicted comfy divvies. I'm still comfy.

>> No.19207887

>>19207803
If you bought today those divvies would be a lot more comfy than the high premium you likely paid weeks ago.

>> No.19207995

>>19207727
>those who previously had sold futures and are now offsetting their positions with purchases
The action seems anomalous, but i won't pretend to know what's going on with them. I'm only concerned about supply cap and if US Shale can make a profit with the longer term prices. I'd already be in XOM, RDS.B, or OXY if the storage situation wasn't so bad globally.

>> No.19208000
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19208000

>>19207887
Honestly, this is the only REAL thing that upsets me. I am fine biding my time, but I ran out of powder I can spare and had to eat a bit too much without complete DCA, though DCA'ed enough. Honestly this can all be fixed and everyone invest in the tanker space at once if a company just did buybacks.

>> No.19208005

>>19207720
Guess I'll be straining my neck looking up at you on the moon.

>> No.19208026

>>19208005
wtf are you talking about this tanker bullshit took all of my money and sent it to oil jews

>> No.19208043

>>19207527
can i get the story on this please?

>> No.19208110

Here are my new positions:
- TK: sold everything, loss of about 10%. Small position, all good.
- OSG: not sure if I want to sell calls or just sell outright. I lost too much on it and I'd like to scrape some back but option volume is really bad.
- STNG, TNP: strangles. These are guaranteed to turn profits regardless of where they go.
- FRO: diagonal spread. As above.
- EURN, DHT: holding for now.
Awful, but nowhere near as bad as I expected after checking option plays I could do. I might even be green at the end.

>> No.19208151

>>19208043
Stng stopped doing buybacks because daily rates were crashing and they are worried about bankruptcy given that there is a 50% oversupply of tankers

>> No.19208158

>>19208110
Oops, collars on STNG, TNP. Brainfart.

>> No.19208181
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19208181

>>19208000
kek you admit you want other retards to buy in to pump your bags. You would be right at home in /psg/. Instead of DCA you could always invest in actual growth stocks that have divvy, but no, sail on.

>>19208026
Are you talking shit about tankers!?!?!??!?!?! You MUST be a shill.

>> No.19208196

>>19208110
>These are guaranteed to turn profits regardless o

Haha that's what you thought about these tankerturds, face it everything you "know" is a lie some other shill dumber than you made up

>> No.19208202

>>19208151
no i mean the story about the saudi guy getting shot

>> No.19208208

>>19208196
Please go be retarded elsewhere. You clearly don't understand how options work.

>> No.19208232

>>19208202
Why do you believe every dumb thing posted here but disbelieve all the facts

>> No.19208243

Hold tankers or sell for marginal loss?

>> No.19208260

>>19208208
How much have you lost on these sure thing investments in tankerturds?

>> No.19208265

>>19208243
Collars and spreads.

>> No.19208274

>everything you "know" is a lie some other shill dumber than you made up
there's been a total of like three times options strategies have been discussed on tankers.

>>19208243
I'm holding unless CA reopening is S-tier success and India goes full herd immunity strategy.

>> No.19208276

>>19208158
I haven't even considered collars on STNG. I've been buying protective puts to protect against downside risk but this might be a really good strategy.

Do you plan on closing a leg or moving the position around?

>> No.19208288

>>19208243
Why did you buy them?

>> No.19208314

>>19208232

so nobody got shot? damn...

>> No.19208330
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19208330

>>19208181
More like I rather have a return that is small while I hold. Called investor confidence. I am staying in the game regardless, but consider it "a nice token." Considering they got the cash to do it now.

>>19208243
>FRO earnings tomorrow
If you don't hold another day idk what to say, least see the guidance and results.

>> No.19208333

>>19208243
just GTFO unless you love tankers and want to stare at a rollercoaster for the next 5 years to possibly make money
seriously. this sector is only for people who love tankers and the feeling of never knowing whether or not you're about to get fucked in the ass

>> No.19208352

>>19208274
So you buy some shares and lose $thousands and make a few hundred on options and declare victory as you cant pay rent

>> No.19208353

>>19206029
i want to fuck that squid

>> No.19208356

>>19208243
depends on what you have at what price

>> No.19208369

>>19208243
sell tankers, buy airlines

>> No.19208396

>>19208288
I am brainlet and listened to an anime poster who promised we will all be rich.

>> No.19208406

>>19208276
If shit tanks I close the call and either roll or cash in depending on the situation. If it goes up I think I'll let it be called away unless we get some really substantial evidence it's going to run, in which case I'll buy the call. Got a bad taste in my mouth now, hence the defensive posture.

>> No.19208425

>>19207547
>It's been a bit more than 6k in this hour so far and about 18k since 3 AM
Ok, so let's say we closed 18k of open interest just so you can have that point and we don't get sidetracked. Prior day was ~23k OI. That's the definition of a low trading day, particularly on a day like today. That's also 5k contract gap, or around 5 million barrels.

I'm not saying anything is going to happen. I'm just saying you're reading too much into what you just saw, and that falling open interest with this many positions liquidating during an uptrend is sketchy.
>>19207727
>At this point, most of the buyers are those who previously had sold futures and are now offsetting their positions with purchases.
This looks like what happened. People clearing obligations before the end of the day.

>>19207691
>What do you think actually happened today with oil, anon?
Today isn't over.

>> No.19208477

>>19208425
it's all gone, dude
do you think just nobody has felt like buying or selling in the past hour and a half? because that's how long it's been since that massive volume came in, lasted exactly one half hour, then went to ZERO
the only people left holding contracts are people who actually want and have room for the oil
we got fucked

>> No.19208495

>>19206029
Its over. We were wrong

>> No.19208498

got a bunch of calls in FRO will tomorrow be surprise buttsex?

>> No.19208539
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19208539

>>19208425
>Today isn't over.
Yes, it is.
And what's worse is they didn't wait for the EOD dump, they did it just in time to only have to deal with the minimum amount of OI and early enough that the EOD dump didn't crush the price first.
We. Got. Fucked.
>inb4 hurr oil futures trade 24-hours
Not these. Because they're fucking DONE.

>> No.19208617
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19208617

>>19208425
>Today isn't over
Not for oil, but it is for June futures. And I am slightly upset that I sold my SCO and it looks like oil is still going down. What I am concerned for is the API report incoming.

>> No.19208647
File: 379 KB, 1896x2638, Screen Shot 2020-05-19 at 4.11.43 PM.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19208647

>>19208539
Wrong screenshot. That one was from right before we got dick up the ass.

Here's after.

>> No.19208671

>>19208617
API is irrelevant because EIA will come out the morning after and say whatever they've been told to say.

>> No.19208683

>>19206205
HOLD ON SEA CAT

>> No.19208687

Trump literally tweeted that oil is back last night. Never bet against Trump.

>> No.19208726

>>19208671
every day the tankers are floating, the rates go up, and revenue comes in. A good report regarding storage... I think that would be bullish. let's see how big of a discrepancy exists this time.

>>19208687
yeah, in tankers. on the shores.

>> No.19208745

>>19208687
In conclusion: sentiment analysis > technical analysis > clown analysis > astrological analysis > fundamental analysis

>> No.19208766

>>19208726
You can THINK all you want but how much more do you need to SEE before you agree that you're getting fucked.

>> No.19208777

>>19208766
This.

>> No.19208788

>>19208726
Have fun with your buggy whips

>> No.19208846

>>19208766
>>19208777
>>19208788
Checked

>> No.19208865
File: 242 KB, 860x681, 1589680609928.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19208865

>>19208766
The more we get fucked in the short term, the more upside on price. The earnings reports will speak for themselves. Tankers being a strict contango play is silly. US oil is on the chopping block, and I don't know what else to say. The supply issue isn't just about hitting max storage. It's also about downward pressure on prices for the foreseeable future. Sell already. I'll probably buy it happily.

>>19208788
I'm waiting to buy WFC.

>> No.19208876

>>19207887
There's always a better day. I'm fine with a 20% annual return.
>>19208243
Cold dead hands

>> No.19208894
File: 567 KB, 562x474, 1578819157058.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19208894

>>19208671
According to last week, we have 13 million left in Cushing to fill. We currently have like a minimum at most gracious estimate 5 unaccounted for. We have untold millions offshore. I hate this data manipulation. And if tankers are just....sitting forever in storage, then wtf, isn't that bullish?

>> No.19208912
File: 1.14 MB, 1194x1500, 1589594697248.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19208912

>>19208894
>if tankers are just....sitting forever in storage, then wtf, isn't that bullish?
yes. incredibly.

>> No.19208923

>>19208865
the tanker companies are going to make damn sure you get as little of the money coming in from this as possible
i would not be surprised AT ALL if the shills are from the tanker companies themselves

>>19208894
>>19208912
Yes. And it's been for the past month and a half. And where are we?

>> No.19208951

>>19208923
You might be right about that. I'll be happier in tankers and getting robbed than holding shale while it goes bankrupt/gets bailed out.

>> No.19208993

>>19208951
You don't HAVE to be in the oil pit at all.
If I had just stuck to swing trading NAIL I'd be up 30%.

>> No.19209047

>>19208993
I would literally skip on almost every sector right now. Consumer Staples, Miners, and Telecom are the exclusions.

>> No.19209107
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19209107

>>19208923
>not wanting to treat shareholders well so more invest
>more investment means more money
>more money in company means more money for you
>not wanting more money

Just dumb at this point to not want to prevent fucking over. And I am super unsure right now of why things are down, yet institutions keep buying more too. It is very confusing.

>> No.19209116
File: 215 KB, 1080x1350, 2311032302878329523_1589716540.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19209116

>There is no actual correlation between crude oil and tanker stocks.

>> No.19209169

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-1

WTI Extends Gains After Large Surprise Crude Draw

Hahaha tankertards are so dumb as they repeat bbbbbbbut where are we gonna put all the extra oil

>> No.19209184

>>19209107
>yet institutions keep buying more too.


Haha yall retards believe every lying shill

>> No.19209213

>>19209116
Oil goes up tankerturds go down
Oil goes down tankerturds go down

You just dont get it no one needs tankers anymore

>> No.19209227

>>19208617
>>19208477
>>19208647
I'm seeing what you're seeing, believe me. Looks like 19kish/23kish are accounted for as of the last info I'm looking at. June contracts are more than likely going to be fine, but it didn't take much volume to send May off the rails. We're in uncharted waters so I reserve judgment on everything until everything is done.

I'm not predicting anything will happen today, I'm just saying that what's happening is a bit fucky and weird and will be reconciled at some point.

>> No.19209233

You faggots who bought options are greedy retards. Same goes for anyone who thought they’d make a 10x off some oil super contango play. Greedy idiots. This entire general is shit tier because of you faggots complaining about oil futures. Why don’t we have a discussion about actual tanker companies, which ones have robust balance sheets, what other factors might trigger a bull cycle for this sector over the next 1-2 years, what different fleets look like, and other shit that’s actually relevant to tanker company performance in the next few years. Nope just a bunch of anime faggots and morons spouting on about oil manipulation. Fuck you guys and fuck this general there’s absolutely no good information being discussed here just a bunch of greedy moronic faggots. You deserve your calls expiring worthless.

>> No.19209262

>>19209233
>You faggots who bought options are greedy retards.

jokes on you i'm not approved for options, fag

>> No.19209281
File: 2.38 MB, 5024x3552, 9CA07119-3220-4BC0-958D-39D8EEFB4CC3.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19209281

Looks like crude at $35 is the level to watch for oilfags. I guess the volatility is attracting a lot of you folks.

>>19208894
I wish that were my peepee.

>>19206029
Nice tits
Gross face

>> No.19209289

KYS you scammer fucks, I lost so fuckin much money on this shit. And I was lucky I guess, I haven't bought at the very top, when the hype was the biggest. Those who did already thinking about the rope as an exit plan I guess.

>> No.19209304

>>19209233
>Why don’t we have a discussion about actual tanker companies
Because they all have record-breaking revenue and profit and almost all the picks we chose have as robust a balance sheet as possible yet none of that even remotely matters, nor has it ever mattered historically. However, oil supply has, at every point in history except now, had massive impact on tanker valuation. The only retard here is you desu famalam.

>> No.19209320

>>19208894
Some anon said demurage is good, but my research said demurage rates are a fraction of spot rates and so it's very very bearish.

>> No.19209331

>>19209233
We have been discussing the companies in previous days. It's just today was about the oil contracts. I'm invested long term based on company strength so if you are interested I can go deeper. My main picks lohave been eurn, fro, and stng. Some guys here are just quick money dolts, but not all.

>> No.19209352

>>19209184
they think because some bank has a small stake in a diversified portfolio that it means it will moon

>> No.19209366

>>19209233
>Why don’t we have a discussion about actual tanker companies, which ones have robust balance sheets, what other factors might trigger a bull cycle for this sector over the next 1-2 years, what different fleets look like, and other shit that’s actually relevant to tanker company performance in the next few years

Good question, probably because they know nothing except how to lose money

>> No.19209437

>>19209233
there's concern shilling, desu - that brandon fellow was replaced with people with higher rates. There's a few anons that are long on oil showing up as well, so take the posts and info with a tablespoon of salt. I'm following game theory, money, and supply/demand. I can't speak for individual companies very well, but have taken info from the generals to rest on EURN, FRO, and DHT. The trigger has already been pulled for a bull cycle. The only things that could get in the way of the hammer seem to be war/attacks or somehow having a strong reopening everywhere.

>> No.19209519

>>19209437
Demand for oil is down 40% . you are so dumb you think that's bullish

>> No.19209539

>>19209519
It would seriously pay for you to know game theory, shill.

>> No.19209549

>>19209331
I really like EURN, TK, FRO, and LPG. Not sold on STNG. I listened to the CEO interview posted here yesterday and he didn’t say anything that compelled me to buy shares. Maybe you can explain why your keen on them.

>> No.19209638
File: 213 KB, 1448x2048, 1588051453813.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19209638

Ahem. NEWS REPORT, API REPORTS 4.8 MILLION BARREL DRAW.

I do not know if this counts offshore tankers or not, but I am betting not. Because if they are....oh god are we in for the production re-kick of a lifetime. Volatility is beyond fuckey now.

>>19209184
...When JP Morgan picks up 2 million shares, it isn't a joke.

>>19209227
I think it should be reconciled too. Backwardation? One month from the biggest contango ever into a reversal? I don't believe it. And I don't believe we got room in cushing neither. We have a "draw" by forcing tankers to park....and this may last months even. Uncharted waters is right, no one knows anymore what is actually happening. API report just said now we have a draw of 4.8 million barrels. not insignificant in the least. And also extremely confusing because it could only of gone down on the supply side (no way demand has strengthened) which means...how are we going to start producing again? This is beyond fuckey. And of course....millions and more piling up on the coast. Wait, are we perhaps only drawing STILL due to not letting tankers in? Wtf is going to happen with the backlog?!

>>19209281
Same.

>>19209320
demurage rates can both be good comparative to the average and less than spot rates.

>> No.19209674

>>19209549
stng ceo got his mother to buy 100k shares

>> No.19209712

>>19209674
>stng ceo got his mother to buy 100k shares

word on the street is she always buys at the right time

>> No.19209725

>>19209638
$10,000,000 in a multi billion $ industry is literally nothing especially since someone else sold those shares. Everything you know is a lie

>> No.19209753

>>19209674
The CEOs mom got free shares and sold them?

>> No.19209792

>>19209725
they’re still in the bargaining stage of grief

>> No.19209793

>>19209674
I’m sold

>> No.19209858
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19209858

>>19209793
>mommy! mommy!
>buy some of my company mommy!
>ok honey, but only because you've been so good.
>anon: holy fuck, bullish
kek.

>> No.19209889

>>19209858
It’s a joke faggot. Go jerk off to your anime porn.

>> No.19209905

>>19209549
STNG dominates the product tanker industry and has an extremely modern fleet that's compliant to imo 2020. Tankers specialized in either crude, product, natural gas, chemical, or shuttles and I wanted to have a bit in each category but because of their dominance in product and how I think the demand for product tankers will spike once the economy restores it made sense. TK is also a good diversified choice (tnk, tgp and too are although strong) choice that I have a bit in (overall I did eurn, nna, dht, tnp, stng, fro and tk).

>> No.19209909

>>19209889
it's actually might be a good reason to buy. If I'm not retarded and remembering right, she manages a child company of STNG.

>> No.19209956
File: 1.98 MB, 1195x1801, 1587054603091.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19209956

>>19206029
huh.. is this an edit or the original

>> No.19210056

>>19209956
looks like it's a set, see >>19206566

>> No.19210086
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19210086

>>19209725
I invite you to check other companies. Like Disney. Relatively lower shares and money even being spent on buying Disney overall than, say, FRO. But you bet their ass they are selling it while no one is selling tankers. I invite you, check it out. https://fintel.io/sos/us/dis Look up all kinds of stocks on there.

>>19209858
I need to watch this anime. It excites me too much.

>> No.19210168

>>19210056
oh fuck my dic

>> No.19210691

Looks like the bears are still being gay so im going to say this once and never again, wonderful screen cap for Brandon:

We dislike risk and hate losing money. There's nothing wrong with that, except that we confuse past fiascoes with future dissapointments. Stocks that have declined in price are "tainted," even though the lower price at which we can buy them covers a multitude of old sins. So we let our analysis be colored by an emotional taint that hinders our effort at producing an unbiased picture of a company's prospects and security's value. We love winners more than we should, and we avoid losers so that we don't notice when situations improve and yesterday's failure is tomorrow's comeback of the year.

>> No.19210814
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19210814

So who is gonna be here tomorrow morning for FRO earnings and then conference call at 9 a.m.? Are you all really bummed out about oil prices and API this much? Let's look for the future, many of us are long-pilled, but even those that aren't should be eagerly looking forward to earnings and the continuing tanker parking shock which might force them all into storage anyways while countries have draws trying to bring down their own storage, thus increase rates anyways or least maintaining them.

>>19210691
Honestly, I semi-think everything might be priced in now in terms of what can go wrong like oil recovery now. Look, we barely went down any more after June expired positive, stocks gave no fucks. Neither was a fuck given now that API reported a 4.8 million barrel draw. We simply have not been plummeting on an overall negative trend recently, wish index anon was here but I feel the opinion would be supported. The curve has flattened essentially.

>> No.19211145

What happened to WTI after 2:30?

>> No.19211242
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19211242

>>19211145
June expired. Now July is the front month and what everyone is looking at. And July is falling atm.

And spoiler, July is setting up another contango. Right now. The tanker play is far from over for short-termers and long-termers.

>> No.19211311

>>19211242
When July oil goes to minus $6,000,000 we gunna be rich just hold till then plus we get comfy divvys we be set we be riding lambos I'm buying more right nao!

>> No.19211318

I forget where but I saw that wti is tied to on shore oil. The blockade doesn't effect the price since it is off shore.

Any of y'all know about this?

>> No.19211577

>>19209753
No, she bought them, aka it was basically a buyback.

>> No.19211588
File: 29 KB, 128x128, 1581985595160.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19211588

>>19211311
Doesn't have to go to minus. overall market is essentially in a giant contango still, being half the price of normal oil. "crashed" rates are 3 times the norm, 6 month and year long contracts are all more expensive than spot (meaning that oil producers/storers think that times ahead will be worse than now), tankers can reduce boat supply at any time they need, and demmurage/storage may become the new memo if California is setting an example. We don't need negative oil, not in the slightest. The hype is fun, but if you remove ALL speculative hype the stocks are still hype kek. As we speak, API reported that we are drawing from inventory, June closed up beyond 30 in backwardation, and AH tankers stocks been going up for some and others simply haven't gotten worse. Literally the worst possible news came in everywhere today for the "hype," and nothing fell much more than prior and overall we are on a flat or slightly up trajectory past few days. I am kicking myself for saying this, but I think bad news might be actually priced in now and this could be a bottom which might of been an institutional test of lows as well. But hey, all of that is speculative. All I do know is they are making money, have good market conditions, and are below NAV with good divvies and that is enough for me. I know you troll a bit, but I am responding for others as well because I feel like a few had the winds taken out of their sails despite prices not even falling on our stocks today from all this.

>>19211318
Nothing is counting off shore oil. WTI is American produced and does not count offshore. It does count our shale, with many reserves now forever broken and the vast majority shutting down. WTI may potentially shoot up, while Brent and other oils drive lower. We mainly look at WTI but it is not the whole story. The blockade does in fact increase the price despite being another kind of oil because it prevents storage filling. Less supply, higher price.

>> No.19211610

>>19209858
>>anon: holy fuck, bullish
Just wait until daddy wakes up.

>> No.19211750
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19211750

>>19211318
Basically, WTI is American, price is accounted for by its own production and the country's supply and demand. Off shore oil isn't in our supply, so it isn't counted for inventory nor price. Basically, we were jewed out of our apocalypse but now they have to pay our tankers for storage as we halt accepting exports while everyone keeps exporting. Seems like we will make tankers halt indefinitely until our supply goes down enough, meaning less supply of tankers to take on more export oil, which means more tankers filled, which means better rates. This seems to be how the market is currently taking this. Combined with the fact that we are still in a greater contango and sentiment is poor for overall oil recovery, and we are actually possibly in business specifically because they are avoiding oilmageddon. Things look good, and all it takes is one negative event like China re-shutdown or another India extension or demand refusing to pick up and the killing will commence again.

My opinions/interpretation of this situation. I think people took on June contracts today because they specifically knew that tankers weren't going to be let into here for a month at minimum, probably more, thus with our low demand and lower production allow them to effectively store oil. Again, my interpretation, take it or leave it. Which essentially means we were jewed...but maybe in a good way for us.

>> No.19211798

>>19211750
"people" didn't take shit. The contracts were purchased in a specifically controlled way so as to ensure the price of them during an exactly 30 minutes period starting exactly on the hour, not a single minute before or after.

>> No.19211882
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19211882

>>19211798
I mean in the sense oil gotta be delivered in general to those who got obligations, not the "magic buyers." Whatever has already been contractually gobbled up regardless of price manipulation, it has somewhere to go. That is what I am saying. Not all open interest has been settled which is its own sentiment, but for those that are I think we might be in a tanker-storage situation in the meanwhile in order to balance domestic production.

>> No.19211891

>>19211750
>we will make tankers halt indefinitely until our supply goes down enough
Odds are that they will be halted until Shale can pick back up which will be done via tariffs or subsidy. I personally think it will be subsidy to US Shale, but I'm no expert.
>maybe in a good way for us.
It's very likely a good way.
>it's after 5 pm in the midwest.
>tsg is calm and comfy
fucking hell.

>> No.19211916

>>19211750
That still leaves questions regarding the OI that got gobbled in that half hour. Who would intentionally take such a massive loss just so a bunch of finbros could roll their shit to July? The draw downs are starting to make a little bit of sense /if/ you take into account that the economy is *barely* starting to bootstrap itself again AS WELL AS we're blockading foreign oil, but who would take such a loss? Or am I misinterpreting this whole thing and the speculators were long since out and the only ones left were people with unaccounted for tanks to stand for delivery?

>> No.19211976

>>19211916
>am I misinterpreting this whole thing
I think >>19207727 >>19211882 and >>19208425 got it

>> No.19212153
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19212153

>>19211916
Well, as one anon suggests it could of been existing contracts/obligations manipulating the market to fix the price. Not necessarily new buyers. In fact we still don't actually know the final OI, we just been assuming under "the most generous possible assumption" that all volume was settling a contract. This does NOT have to be the case. We could very well have 10k OI left, who knows. Keep in mind as well, we have 700k draw last week, 4.8 million this week, Cushing had 13.8 million storage left last week meaning now it should have 9 million....and we have almost 50 million sitting offshore blockaded. In other words, we cannot physically accept the oil offshore and every day even more gets parked out there. The oil situation is A LOT worse than the media and analysts are letting on. In truth, whether by prudent buyers of backwardation or obligations, those buying today did not lose much money so far as the tankers remain offshore with their oil. We had no big buyers or real buyers today, just those who have to take some and made sure it was at a fixed price for them. We got room now at Cushing, and they know that....but we are oversupplied heavily regardless.

>>19211891
>Until Shale can get picked back up
Minimum of six months just to restart the wells. Storage tanker dream might happen for real if your theory is true.

>> No.19212246

>>19212153
>Minimum of six months just to restart the wells.
they actually shut profitable ones? I remember a Texas report saying otherwise. US Shale getting choked or the rest of the world's demand not picking up fast enough is enough for this play.

>> No.19212606
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19212606

>>19212153
>>19212246
I am an idiot mathematician, correction, ac cording to API Cushing this week should have 18,6 million capacity left. Still WAY off from letting tankers in.

But well, some profitable ones yes. And keep in mind a ton of wells are permanently destroyed now too by shutting down. Oil is FUCKED.

>> No.19212746

>>19212606
so that means we should expect oil majors to hit ATH next week?

>> No.19212779

This whole general has got me thinking. Would there be enough interest in a commodities and commodity futures general? I get that it might draw a lot of people away from /smg/ but they feel like different beast, and maybe we could have similar links and helpful info in the OP

>> No.19212787
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19212787

>>19206399
this. it was hyped up right after oil went negative, that brought in the normie boat load. Now they are stuck holding a while

>> No.19212819
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19212819

>>19206508

>> No.19212827

>>19212779
That would make a lot more sense than braindead retards worshiping a class of stock because of poorly made reddit memes

>> No.19212897
File: 36 KB, 170x162, 1587404167251.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19212897

>>19212746
Kek. Under clown market logic, yes. For sure.

>>19212779
I wish I had enough money to actually trade commodities. Not sure how popular it would be considering the vast majority of us cannot trade them, only pull them up to speculate. /smg/ included. But who knows. Could be cool, honestly I much rather see more market information and involvement on /biz/ in general than shitcoins.

>>19212787
No, even better. It is causing normies to dump in loads. And lots of big proponents in general. Which is bullish af, retail is legitimately clearing away even harder now and won't jump in until it is too late. The jews won. And I don't care because I intend to ride this son of a bitch until the end since, call me crazy, I think we are gonna crash hard like every billionaire has said and by the end of it I rather be holding profitable assets going into it than literal paper with nothing behind it like 90%+ of stocks right now. Plus lockdown potential still again for places.

>> No.19212927
File: 1.61 MB, 336x167, 1414272830981.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19212927

>>19207392
i know one

>> No.19213194

>>19212897

Normies are buying more. Check robintrack.net and number of open calls.

>> No.19213223

>>19212897
You are retail

>> No.19214182

>>19213194
http://robintrack.net/symbol/DHT
holy shit and you niggers said that reatail left the tanker sector, I think the only thing holding it from complete capitulation are robinhoodlums

>> No.19214392

>>19214182

Check out the calls too. Way more than last month.
http://www.maximum-pain.com/options/dht

>> No.19214397
File: 2.79 MB, 540x304, 1551291886566.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19214397

>>19213194
>>19214182
WHY. God dammit. Well, in all due respect it actually isn't proportionally too much compared to other stocks. Type in almost any other ticker and you got way more investors. Actually, retail is extremely small here. Bigger than before, but small overall. It isn't too bad.

BUT NAT IS IRREDEEMABLE, HOLY FUCK. That is hopelessly retail.

>>19213223
I am, but best not to try and be part of the flock.

>> No.19214433

>>19214397
>Posts pedo, buys tankerturds

Yeah you are sheeple

>> No.19214502
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19214502

>>19214433
Not if I was the first anime poster talking about it on here.

>> No.19214513
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19214513

So when are y'all going to apologize to Brandon??????

Brandon tried to educate you on stocks and such!

This is the future you chose

>> No.19214520

>>19214433
What did you have for dinner tonight Brandon?

>> No.19214542

>>19214502
Why do you like stocks that only go down?

>> No.19214577
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19214577

>>19214542
Because if I liked a stock at 8 dollars, then I love it at 6 dollars. The lower you go, the better deal you give me.

>> No.19214664

>>19214577
Riding a stock to zero is your dream

>> No.19214696

>>19214664
>>19214520
Please answer

>> No.19214701

y'all need to google what a sunk cost fallacy is and cut your losses

>> No.19214742

>>19214701
I'm comfy leave me alone

>> No.19214760

fucking retards, the lot of you

>> No.19215646
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19215646

Tomorrow is my birthday and I have 100+ shares of FRO
I'm hoping for the best but not getting my hopes up too high
Either way it's cold dead hands all over

>> No.19215675

>>19214701
>sunk cost fallacy
https://fintel.io/sob/us/dht
yeah, at least half of these guys need to google the sunk cost fallacy and cut their losses.

>>19214760
slap us with some facts and logic, senpai

>>19215646
happy birthday. stay frosty.

>> No.19215714
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19215714

>>19215646
Wait, that is cute, yesterday was my birthday! We both had birthdays when a tanker released earnings within 2 days of each other! Happy birthday anon! I wish you the best. I got 500 shares of FRO, so I am hoping right with you.

>> No.19215780

>For example, individuals sometimes order too much food and then over-eat just to “get their money’s worth”. Similarly, a person may have a $20 ticket to a concert and then drive for hours through a blizzard, just because she feels that she has to attend due to having made the initial investment. If the costs outweigh the benefits, the extra costs incurred (inconvenience, time or even money) are held in a different mental account than the one associated with the ticket transaction (Thaler, 1999).

>> No.19215844
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19215844

>>19215675
>>19215714
Thanks boys
Happy late birthday anon

>> No.19215962
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19215962

>>19215844
Thank you! Great waifu taste. Conference call at 9, earnings probs sooner, maybe 9, idk. Just morning.

>> No.19215981

I sold ITM calls for all my tankers
FUCK TANKERS

>> No.19216195

Sell your fucking bags. If you believe in tankers reinvest. I sold dht at 6 and rebought at 5.80. Originally bought the middle at 6.60 do your own DD and stop depending on these cherry picked articles. A lot of tankers are being redirected to extend their voyage which doesn’t break their back because they get to avoid paying the money to get through certain channels. The foot fetishist is lieing. Restart don’t just blindly sink.

>> No.19216335
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19216335

>>19216195
>foot fetishist
>not footfag
Way to show you aren't from 4chan. But yes, sure, restart you say. While we are already at 5.80 for DHT and 9.60 for EURN and such, prices you yourself are buying at. DD will give a consensus analysis of valuing all these stocks (except NAT) higher than their current value. Not sure what I said that doesn't suggest tankers being redirected (what, offshore parking? They certainly are, and this makes money by tying up supply. Redirection extends which makes money too and cuts costs on channels as you said so I am not sure where your criticism is). I always voiced to DCA down, and of course it is fine to sell and rebuy during a day or a swing if you can capitalize off it. That isn't selling your bags, that is playing your positions and the only time someone can't do such a thing well is if they are sitting on margin and losing (which will lower future margin borrowing capability down even if you "make a better rebuy," hence isn't worth it).

You are doing a very good job sending mixed signals to people telling them to sell while also buy at literally the price they are at now. Just say DCA down and swing trade to avoid the hassle if that's what you think, your post was a giant petri dish of different ideas meshed together.

>> No.19216517

>>19216195
>I sold dht at 6 and rebought at 5.80
how much lower do you expect? I'm not entirely sold on it being worthwhile to swing, unless it's between holds.

>> No.19216518

>>19214513
If you weren't retarded you'd have got alone fine here Brandon. You've posted something like 1000 times in these threads over the past two weeks. On one thread it was nearly half the posts, and approximately every 5 minutes. Either you have legit autism and decided this is your life now, or you're a paid shill. When these threads finally end, what exactly are you going to have left?
Tankers were one play out of a lifetime of plays to come. Yeah it would have been nice if it worked out as expected; but it is what it is. You know retail hardly even sold, right? You can go look at the RobinTrack data yourself.
Tell you what, tell your boys to move the price up enough that I can rent a beach house for a month, and I'll sell everything; OK? I'm tired of corona and being in the middle of nowhere. I just want to go surfing.
>>19216195
You know, I noticed this lately; what is up with the site getting flooded with footfags? Not even really mad at them, it's just *everywhere* suddenly, in the past few months.
>>19212897
It's entirely possible we're just early, and screwed up our market timing. Even the latest numbers still had storage issues as a problem going into August, so who knows what will happen with oil.

>> No.19216637

I finally capitulated on NAT in the morning. Good thing too because it continued to dump all day... I still have some FRO I can't wait to get rid of, they have earnings tomorrow so either way it'll be outta my hands by the end of the week for better or worse. I just want off this ride I miss my monies

>> No.19216638

>>19216517
I believe its floor is in the mid 4's where it languished for years before the china tariff situation and contango. So as long as you price that into your decision you should be fine.

>> No.19216670

>>19216638
sounds good to me, but I would assume that the oil developments needed to get to $4.50 will damn the play, unless it moves there in the next few weeks before we get more data out of california and the rest of the world.

>> No.19216733

>>19216670
Its a gamble for sure, but the market sentiment is highly slanted against tankers right now. No one cares about their earnings they see it as past its prime.

>> No.19216795
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19216795

>>19216518
I always been a footfag in general. Not always posting feet, but not shy about it. I noticed it too though for what it is worth, and I am not displeased about the development.

But yea, you are right about being early. Which sucks. Well, we will really probably know tomorrow with FRO. Oil is screwed up for many, many months. Who knows.

>>19216637
>NAT
You got what you deserved.

>> No.19217380
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19217380

>>19209638
The WTI mystery isn't hard to solve, nor are the reports of a draw-down in Cushing (if of course both are true). WTI typically relies on land based storage. Texas opened another 70million barrels of storage this month, hippies, animals, and water supplies be damned.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2020/05/05/rejecting-oil-production-cuts-texas-regulators.html
That being said, $32/bl WTI is not going to result in the kind of well stutdowns previously predicted, as the low/high breakevens to continue operating new wells is around a range of $24-40/bl. Hell, some companies can open new wells at $32/bl WTI. So the underlying problem remains, it's just delayed, and I would imagine the hope is that demand recovers within that time because supply is not going to - we're not commies and we can't command them to turn off the pumps. That's a lot of storage, but we're still producing maybe 11m bl/day of WTI, and oil demand is still depressed about 20%, so who knows.

Brent is another beast and relies more heavily on maritime storage and Asian consumption. Bigtime contango is still a possibility, particularly if the US is refusing to let tankers unload and if China/India demand lags. It's not going to be insane like WTI was because the storage concerns are different (the possibility of needing to use tankers for a significant portion of WTI production is literal panic mode whereas it's just a cyclical thing for Brent), but the setup is consistently bullish for tankers.

Crude goes to refineries. Refineries create crude products. Thus, if the production of Brent continues to exceed what refiners are taking, time charter rates will rise (and spot rates via supply constriction.) Again, you never know, but the outlook seems good for the year.

>>19216733
>they see it as past its prime
A silly thought, but it makes sense if your only objective is a contango dildo. Unwinding of maritime storage means that stranded vessels get out of demurrage

>> No.19217385

>>19216335
>Just day DCA down and avoid the hassle.
You are right with that. A little bubbly. I do believe in the fundamentals of tankers esp with current markets. At the end of the day someone’s gotta ship the oil and most companies took their windfall profits from contango and used it on their debt. They truly are hedged against any real turbulence till early 2021. HOLD ON SEACAT just don’t lose your shirt.

>>19216518
This is just brandon

>> No.19217596

Im out tomorrow

>> No.19217779

>>19217596
better late than never

>> No.19217803

>>19217596
Eh, I'm gonna dump my calls after June1 if nothing happens on the contango side, but I'll hold on to these tankers for divs and a hedge against oil going south in a second wave, still confident we'll see some positive movement regardless of what happens.

>> No.19218023
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19218023

time to dump
-10% incoming

>> No.19218977

So, did anything happen on the 19th of May?

>> No.19219245
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19219245

>>19217380
Wow. Informative. Really....hmm. So if price goes up, less shutdowns and more restarts which will make another supply issue. If price down, well, production is destroyed and it gets fucky. Exports like Brent can make enormous contango due to potential US supply policy of blockades. WTI should be discounted due to...obvious fuckeyness like Texas and internal management with storage.

Alright, so the ideal setup short term would be for demand to stay low or lower while price goes up. In order to back up refineries and choke supply on up the chain, meanwhile depending on export production to maintain because everyone is out for profit. Current situation is suggestive of continual blockade. India may extend lockdowns again. China might have issues again. In other words, tankers aren't even close to over contango play. Thank you anon, I will re-read in the morning to digest more, but that is a good breakdown, thank you.

>>19217385
Oh, not a shill, sorry. But yea, definitely DCA and swing trade if not on margin. I never said to do otherwise. Only thing is I can't personally DCA anymore, powder dry kek.

>>19218023
Well. We will probably increase. There is more to the report, and I like it overall. FRO missed earnings estimate....if they use diluted earnings per share like DHT, otherwise adjusted hit it. But I see a lot of good shit. .70 quarterly dividend is max comfy. Issuing new shares is actually good in my view (they want to sell more at the market) because most of it is held by insiders. That doesn't encourage much trading up, they all just hold, need buyers. I also like they want to see share price rise before they do it, meaning they expect it to. I also like how they earned more in one quarter than their entire earnings last year.

Really, this is bullish af. So it will probably dump knowing market logic. Or, it will be reported as "miss" and bought a lot like we been seeing every day. I will sleep after pre-open.

>> No.19219304

>>19219245
>DHT results
dump
>EURN results
dump
>STNG results
dump
>NAT results
dump
>FRO results
?

>> No.19219325
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19219325

>>19219304
I know, you're right, doesn't matter how bullish the news is. But hey. 70 cent divvy. More shares being issued with expectation of things going up being bought.

Too bad I didn't hear the magic word buyback. That was all I wanted. To hear "buyback." Ah well, time to pray to the market gods. But hey, 70 cent divvy on June 3rd! It's something.

>> No.19219370
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19219370

>>19219304
Well, wait, there is also stuff like joint ventures and mergers, honestly....idk. Just be bullish ffs, how is this not.

>> No.19219479
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19219479

Well. So far the pre market opening is bullish. Time to go to bed. I hope anons aren't burned by the oil today, we got a bunch of good news from FRO in the report. I hope to giggle like a schoolgirl with anons later with the conference.

>> No.19219561

I read the report. FRO is making good money, but not insanely good money. 70 cents per share dividend is nice, but this will not be a moon mission, or anything close to it.

Crabbing will continue, Volatility will remain high. I´m personally also worried about no buybacks and no significant de-leveraging. On the other hand, Frontline seems to have ample loan money available at aprox 2% intrest rate, so maybe de-leveraging would not be prudent at this time.

This Trafigura merger and aquisition of 10 Suezmax tankers seems improtant, but I cant say if it is a good, bad or great deal.

The joint venture with a scrubber manuacturer is probably a good thing, but the amount of money involved is peanuts.

>> No.19219733

>>19219245
>the ideal setup short term would be for demand to stay low or lower while price goes up. In order to back up refineries and choke supply on up the chain
Correct.
Demand for oil is largely inelastic, meaning people don't really give a shit about the price, if they need it they buy it. That's why supply dynamics are so important.

Quality oil producing nations throttled production to the world's demand threshold via cartel agreements. US innovations in shale messed with those quotas before all this happened. There was some blah blah about hurting US shale, but the US Govt has made it very clear that it's going to support shale through a price war, so that has been back burnered.

Now the demand threshold has been reduced by Covid-19, throwing cartel quotas in disarray. In order to maintain prices, oil producing nations must coordinate cuts. Even so, with oil trading in the $30s, cartel countries have an incentive to cut as little as possible since their break even points are even lower than ours. Furthermore, their economies depend on oil exports, so they face significant political pressure to maximize profits. Thus, cartel countries are watching demand estimates like hawks and throttling just enough to avoid a shitshow.

All it takes is for those demand recovery estimates to be wrong, or enough people to cheat, and boom, tankers are needed for storage. Might happen, may not, but it's not off the table - WTI just didn't kick it off today. Again, none of this has to do with the actual tanker trade, just the time-charter speculation portion that might yield a windfall profit.

Long term stable outlook goes like this: profit temporarily from existing time charters -> reduce debt -> wind down floating storage freeing up newer vessels -> reduce fleet size by scrapping older vessels that aren't compliant with new environmental regulations -> enjoy higher spot rates from reduced tanker supply (nobody is building them) with smaller overhead -> profit.

>> No.19219750

>>19219561
Based on their expectations for Q2 i wouldn't be surprised if we see 1$ per share in Q2.

>> No.19220234

>>19219479
As predicted oil is negative $66 a barrel and tanker stocks are mooning. Brandon btfo

>> No.19220332

>>19219750
Maybe. These are very nice divies, and FRO has a cheap breakeven daily cost of about 20k/ship so money should be flowing in, but why doesn't the market see any value in tankers

>> No.19220459

>>19220332
Why aren't tankers mooning when oil demand is permanently down 40%?

Just buy more tankers it might be five years but eventually they might go back to even and if they keep going down think of how much street cred and reddit gold you will have

>> No.19220533

Sure we have lost 60%
Sure we have been wrong about everything
Sure we get mocked daily as tankers tank again and again

But just because we are stupid losers doesn't mean we are stupid and losers. We have street cred from our losses.

Our losses make us richer
Every time the stocks crater we can buy more

If we never sell we become billionaires even if we are broke

Thank you Ms. Market

>> No.19220681
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19220681

They cleared it all in 29 minutes.

The US government WILL NOT allow oil to fall and that means they WILL NOT allow even the appearance of oil doing badly to manifest.

Tankers doing well manifests oil doing badly. So they simply won't allow it.

We got fucked. You are getting fucked RIGHT NOW.

>> No.19220750

>>19220681
Don't be a crybaby we knew these stocks were going down when we bought them....that's why we bought them to spite Brandon

>> No.19220968
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19220968

From FRO's Q1 report:

"The lack of growth in the global tanker fleet is one of the most critical drivers of long-term earnings and is ultimately
more important than near-term dynamics. The order book is at a level not seen since 1997 and various factors
support our expectation that order books will remain very low over the next 24 months. Also, about a fourth of the
VLCC fleet will be 15 years+ in 2021. We also expect vessel off hire to continue to have a material impact on fleet
capacity over the next 12 months as a large number of vessels are due to periodic dry dockings, many of which were
delayed due to the pandemic."

>> No.19220973

Fro gonna announce a .70 divy. Floating storage dipped but continues to increase. Hell lr2 rates are going back up

>> No.19221028

>>19220973
>>19220968
FRO stock is down 98% so it's too late to capture those kisses but if you invest now you can catch the next 98% loss

>> No.19221077
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19221077

>Declared a cash dividend of $0.70 per share for the first quarter of 2020.

>> No.19221210

>>19221028
Fuck you Brandon. Frontline is trading way below book value, and making money for the foreseeable future.

>> No.19221274

>>19221210
Book value of FRO used to be $325 per share now it's less than $9 and then management destroyed all that capital.. billions and billions of capital destruction. Bankruptcy is great. Stock price goes to zero. PROFIT!

>> No.19221439

Halliburton just announced 50% reduced dividend and their stock is doing much better than tankers

>> No.19221671

>>19221439
lol sounds about right
ive already resigned to bagholding these stocks for a while. glad i didnt go all in. i'm confident theyll go up to where they should be but its looking like it will be more drawn out than anticipated

>> No.19221723
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19221723

Okay. Fuck this. I'm dumping at market open.

This shit has lost me money for too long while the rest of my portfolio has been mooning.

I feel gross saying it, but the Brandon shitposters were right. I don't see a future in this shit

>> No.19221773

>>19221439
Haliburton is a real company unlike these tankers that only exist to capture losses and enrich insiders. Basically a tax on the dumb the greedy and the naive

>> No.19221999

Reminder guys buying opportunity in 30days

>> No.19222361

Only five more weeks until this general disappears

>> No.19222434

>>19221723
>1 post by the id

https://mobile.twitter.com/TankersInt/status/1263035850478235648

Good job, you're dumping after rates for DHT have sustained above 60k for a 2month charter.

>> No.19222459

>>19222434
If you are so smart how come you have only lost 55% on your tankerturds?

>> No.19222474

Don't listen to the fud here. Dht is a buy

https://youtu.be/hbyi2HSm9-I

>> No.19222498

Doubting if I should get more DHT to average down or get into FRO when it dips again.

>> No.19222511

>>19222459
I'm not losing 55%, I've made an 200% gain.

>> No.19222535

When's the FRO meeting?

>> No.19222566

>>19206174
UCO. You can make up losses there, plus 5-10x gains.

>> No.19222581

>>19222535
15 minutes time
https://www.frontline.bm/calendar/

>> No.19222599

>>19222511
smart of you to short tankers

>> No.19222612

>>19221274
>What is a reverse split for $100
https://www.splithistory.com/fro/

>> No.19222613

Is WTI crude oil a good etf to biy right now?

>> No.19222641

>>19222613
they are willing to do anything, no matter how blatantly fraudulent or obviously manipulatory to prop it up, and zero governmental agencies are holding anybody accountable

you tell me if WTI is a good buy right now

>> No.19222652

>>19222612
FRO keeps losing $$$$billions so they keep doing reverse splits. Nothing wrong with FRO fleecing the sheeple

>> No.19222677

>>19222641
This means yes right?

>> No.19222705

>>19222613
You are subject to powers we can't see right now. Anybody in the market is at the moment. I for one don't want to play that way as the whole house of cards comes down when on algo or one politician relaxes.

>> No.19222723

>>19222677
Yes.

>> No.19222758

Today’s projected eod closing price for DHT is $5.50.
Sell early!

>> No.19222879

>>19222581
This music is kinda comfy

>> No.19222890

>>19222879
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIxY_Y9TGWI

>> No.19222909
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19222909

>>19222879
IT'S STARTING

MOTHER FUCKER WAS 8 MINUTES LATE

>> No.19222918

>>19222909
Lets gooooooo

>> No.19222921
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19222921

>>19219733
Perfect. I have strong feelings demand estimates are wrong, and will continue to be, and price isn't free falling. Nothing to do but sit and wait then, thanks for the breakdown.

>>19220234
kek, well, won't matter much but I was wrong fiiiiiine.

>>19222879
It was.

>>19222909
It is fine! We are a go!

>> No.19222947
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19222947

kek these guys forgot to advance the slides

>> No.19222999

Why the upturn every premarket for the past few days?

>> No.19223007

FRO's strategy appears to be to ensure they are impossible to understand

>> No.19223015

this pinoy CFO HAS THE CORONAV

>> No.19223027
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19223027

IS THEIR CFO DYING OF COVID

IS THIS A STRONG SELL SIGNAL

>> No.19223041

>>19222999
so it can dump 5% to eod

>> No.19223056

Shorting Callie
Longing Marie

>> No.19223068

I can't understand a word this bitch is saying
She is not suited to doing these things
back to the drawing board bitch

>> No.19223079
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19223079

>>19222947
Kek, I know.

>>19222999
Unsure, but it is slightly upsetting it usually dumps after.

>>19223007
Not wrong, I can barely understand. Q&A will be the highlight anyways.

>>19223015
>>19223027
Coof coof.

>> No.19223110
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19223110

Can someone give me a rundown on FRO's call when it's finished? Many thanks kind anons

>> No.19223132

>>19223110
my notes so far
>KAWAH KOH WIT MAH MIDDAH MACK
>WE WUNT TOO GEE MITT GAWA KIMMIKAMA

>> No.19223137

>>19223110
I went in but its a bit messy. Not as good as my main man Svein during the DHT call.

>> No.19223160

fuck this I'm pulling out of my FRO calls.

>> No.19223178

>200 million floating storage
o shid

>> No.19223181
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19223181

>FLOATING STORAGE PEAKED

OH NO NO NO

>> No.19223191

Tankers always dump on earnings.

>> No.19223199
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19223199

ALL TO PLAY FOR

>> No.19223202

oh god some /tsg/ fag is gonna get on and yell "WHY THE FUCK DO WE KEEP TANKING ON OPEN"

>> No.19223221

>>19223202
earning call questions are always rigged
they have a preselected list of people and the questions are vetted in advance

>> No.19223256

>>19221439

>their stock is doing much better than tankers

Look where Haliburton was in 2019 and early 2020.

FRO and the other tankers on the other hand are trading around 2019 values.

But yeah, if you got in during the last weeks obv. oil would have been the better choice.

>> No.19223266

First for desperate koreans

>> No.19223308
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19223308

>Randy
>"HOWDY"
DO AMERICANS ACTUALLY SPEAK LIKE THIS

>> No.19223324
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19223324

>>19223110
>impossible to understand lady
>killer earnings, killer divvy
>storage on water high, can remain high, can go down, likely down
>rates are down atm, expect volatility
>we set up for most profit and least Operating costs ever, and we can reduce supply any time no worries.

So far.

>> No.19223349
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19223349

>>19223324
meanwhile
it's not even waiting until after the call to tank

>> No.19223350

FRO is going to drop like a stone. :(

>> No.19223360

Women were a mistake

>> No.19223377

>>19223350
tankers drop like a stone everyday newfag, what did you expect? profits? this is a comfy loss thread

>> No.19223383
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19223383

>>19223308
Yes.

>> No.19223385

>>19208333
Doesn't this mostly depends on what you bough in if you got in at 10-12$ ye might be fuck?
But if you entered at 7-8$ just ride till q2 divies at least?

>> No.19223418
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19223418

>>19223349
Doesn't look like it so far. Mornings always are volatile, so we will just watch and wait.

>> No.19223431

>>19223377

>this is a comfy loss thread
>berate fellow anon

this is why your family doesn't love you

>> No.19223438

>>19223349
I'll buy under 7 - 7.50. When is ex-divvy?

>> No.19223440

It's over

>> No.19223465

>>19223431
fuck off for concern shilling, we hear enough about stock prices, focus on the comfy divvies and fun memes, if you wanted quick returns there were plenty of other things to buy

>> No.19223472

>>19223440
There it goes

>> No.19223516

>this is the FRO stock price during the earnings call
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd_zs8AwoTQ

>> No.19223531

>>19223199
Wtf does that slogan mean

>> No.19223537
File: 89 KB, 637x358, stormy sea.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19223537

AAAAND WE'LL ROOOLL, THE OLD

>> No.19223553

>>19223308
Kek the fucking rootinest tootinest, pardner

>> No.19223571
File: 1.94 MB, 3264x2448, 20200520_074008.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19223571

Make sure yall have a hearty breaky we have a long day of losing money ahead of us and its exhausting managing all my comfy divvys

>> No.19223580
File: 1.33 MB, 1320x1980, 67037af0a3ffec5ab49f74d553d63e52.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
19223580

>>19223537
lmao, this volatility is insane. Over fricken propeller speed, I love this meme market.

>> No.19223591

>>19223573
>>19223573
>>19223573

New thread

>> No.19223615

All of these callers have had the same exact voice

>> No.19223619

a non-shill make the new thread please

>> No.19223658

Today is the day oil goes to minus 6 gorrillian $$$ because where are they going to put the oil. Duh. Where will they put it haha easy money hahahahaha

>> No.19223662

>>19223619
ACTUAL NEW THREAD:
>>19223643
>>19223643
>>19223643
>>19223643

>> No.19223697

Haha they have 6 girrilluan barrels of oil they are panicked. They are shook. Where will they put all the oil. Haha hff aha we rich we rich butch