/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18436852
Calculate fib numbers

>>18436852
Post LINK memes

get a job

Share post 4IR business ideas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HA27TFfP_4U

>>18436852
>moving aggressive ostriches
This triggers the roofuckers

>>18436852
oh man I'm getting hard just thinking about how many tendies you would get out of that

>>18436859
Saved. This guy fucks.

>>18436859

Found his grave https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/13471305/george-tritch

Apparently this BASED sir has beaten the S&P! Thank you anon ! This is why /biz/ is still relevant once you cut the mouth breathers off


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/you-dont-want-make-money-continue-reading-olli-niemikorpi (Haven’t run the numbers to check his claims yet tho. Might be fake. If any autists here are willing to check his math lemme know)

>>18437418
Here's another version, posted yesterday by some anon.
Seems 'Fib retracements' rabbit hole is deep.

>>18437856
Yea this seems legit

Ressonates with what Ray Dalio’s been saying about short and long debt cycles too.

Eerie how he got dot com bubble, corona chan, 2nd world war to name a few. The 29’ bust he called on 27 tho.

The question is: is he accurate or we’re applying sharpshooter’s fallacy on hindsight ?

That guy I posted claimed to have run the numbers. Check it out

>>18437992

Ray Dalio: Well, I'm at a stage in my life that I want to pass along the principles that helped me. This was really research that was done before the 2008 financial crisis. And it lays out a template of how these things happened over and over again. In other words, I believe that the same things happen over and over again, and if you study the patterns of them, you understand the cause-effect relationships, and then, can write down principles for dealing with them well. We dealt with them very well in that financial crisis and in other debt crises, and I wanted to pass that template along. It's actually only in the first 60 pages of the book, so it's not a big read if people want to —

http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-bridgewater-debt-crisis-downturn-coming-about-two-years-2018

>>18437856
>https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/13471305/george-tritch
>>18436859
So the recession will last until 2023?

>>18438221
More on Dalio’s recent statements:

What is happening now would have been unimaginable not long ago. It was only unimaginable because it had never happened in our lifetimes. However, if one studied history one would have seen that it happened so regularly in the past that one would have considered it inevitable.


Before I get into the examination of what is happening now, I’d like to explain why I’m looking into such long-ago history to gain my perspective. While it might seem that long-ago cases are of little use, I learned the hard way that the opposite is true. I have found that the biggest and most painful mistakes that I made in the markets came because I didn’t study time periods that happened before my lifetime.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/mechanics-war-economy-ray-dalio?articleId=6649997813201543168#comments-6649997813201543168&trk=public_profile_article_view

>>18437992
Checking, this is interesting:
'Two farmers Samuel Benner and George Tritch
were responsible for what we now refer to as ‘The Benner Cycle’ and ‘Mr Tritch’s Chart’. Both lived in the United States of America and published their findings in the 1870s.'
Will check this book also:
https://archive.org/details/bennersprophecie01benn/page/n11/mode/2up

>>18438483
Awesome!

Read the “panic” chapter, I feel like reading same as Dalio’s saying

>>18436859
So buy in 2023?

>>18438607

>>18438483

Also this:

Bennet’s panic cycle

>>18438642

Both’ve appointed the same panic years
1837
1857
1873
1891

>>18438617
Well, only with money i'm willing to lose. Accuracy is astonishing so far...
>>18438642
Woah, and now hundreds years later anonymous frog posters are checking numbers @ /biz

>>18438483
According to the link you’ve sent bennet’s book was published in 1876 and Tritch’s chart date’s from 1872

>>18438761
True, trying to find more, but seems less info is available on Mr. George Tritch

>>18438761
That would mean that 1873 needed to be a panic year, since Tritch predicted in on his 1872 chart and Bennet inserted it in his book 4 years latter. Right ?

So I went for a quick google search and BAM!

DescriptionThe Panic of 1873 was a financial crisis that triggered an economic depression in Europe and North America that lasted from 1873 until 1877, and even longer in France and Britain

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

It's great that we found the secret boys, now we will be rich beyond our wildest dreams

>>18439247

I’m not convinced yet

This “investing in interest during the bear market” could be a bit dodgy. As per his calculations pure Tritch method did not beat the S&P. I’m thinking about how to run these numbers

>>18436859
Very interesting

I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.

So bullrun soon since you guys are retarded, right?

>>18439780
Idk, but picrelated is interesting too.

>>18438387
sounds about right to me. i didn't need a stupid chart to tell you that.

>>18439957
>didn't need a stupid chart.
Stupid chart from year 1872

Anyone has more info?
Found an interesting comment here:
>econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/08/161820.html
>'This chart undoubtedly has some very close similarities to the monk's chart that has been in use since Medival times in Nepal...
It has a link, but seems it does not work.
>http://www.rubbernet.com.sg/monk's_chart.htm
Any anon knows about some Medieval Nepal Monk's chart?

>>18436859
>>18436859
So if you sold your stocks in 2016, you'd have missed +25% in '17, -5% in '18, and +25% in '19. Granted, you would have then missed this -30% move in '20, but I'm still well up from my 2016 levels.

>>18440199
Sell

>>18436859
delete this

>>18436852
Accumulate

>>18440199

As I’ve shown here >>18439405
He allegedly beat the market (plus interest on the bear phase) from 1911 to 2017.
That’s an impressive long track record of consistency (ir accurate tho, as if I’ve not ran the numbers and the article where this was posted was very short about explaining it’s methodology)

>>18440568
there used to be communist tripfag in /smg/ that always talked about how you should buy bonds when the yields inverted (bear market signal). He talked alot back in the 2018/2019 winter, but cant remember if he mentioned benner.

Moreover you have to realize that interest papers are a meme these days, literally the only thing creating demand is central banks and blind pension funds.

Some more alt-charts:
>www.davidmcminn.com/p2/jmfunk.htm
Still can't find anything Monk's Chart, only mentions as in picrelated.

>>18440792
>>18438731
also you have to go back

>>18440792
>>18440940
Okay, autism has no bounds.
All web sources lead here:
>www.rubbernet.com.sg/monk's_chart.htm
It does not work, but some blogs have picrelated.
Source:
>http://beleggenopdegolven.blogspot.com/2010/08/de-benner-cyclus-van-56-jaar.html
>http://haramoto.blogspot.com/2010/02/
Perhaps Golf Rumours...

>>18440792
That’s an interesting lead Anon. I’ll do some diggin’ too

>>18440974
It’s the same one

https://sys.4channel.org/derefer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fharamoto.blogspot.com%2F2010%2F02%2F This one’s in Portuguese but there’s hardly anything relevant on the post

>>18441021
Yea, from same page. Monk's chart rumored to be ~1800. Leaving translated legend text here.
>RED BALL:
Years when panics occurred and when they are likely to occur again: Their cycles are 16, 18 and 20 years.
>ORANGE SQUARE:
Years of good times, prices are high .... good time to sell the shares: Their cycles are 8, 9 and 10 years
>BLUE TRIANGLE:
Years of difficult times, prices are low ... good time to buy stocks and commodities to await the boom that arrives in the years of good times: Its cycles are 7, 11 and 9 years.

>>18441126

Have you seen this one ? Also claims the returns on the chart perform above average
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/08/more-on-161820.html?m=1

>>18441126
http://silvanfrank.com/prophets-of-wall-street/

This one’s interesting too but he confused ourboy Tritch for Benner

>>18441253
Cool
Found some more: probably Monk's chart is just some falsifiers take on Benner&Tritch.
Earliest mention is 2003 and only 1 link: >www.rubbernet.com.sg/monk's_chart.htm
Used wayback machine to get picrelated.

>>18441516

Yeah. Benner’s book posted here >>18438483 and the table >>18438642
coinciding with Tritch’s kinda proves the legitimacy. But finding and entry from 2003 is cool. Earliest I had found so far was 2010

>>18441516

Have you seen this one ? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 Dalio’s been studying past economic cycles (and writing about them) a lot lately. Is good to see it ressonanting to what both Benner and Tritcht predicted. I think they’re all describing the same phenomena (debt cycle)

Seeing how they were able to witness these things happening and understand it’s cyclical traits just gives me more clarity about this market cycle dynamic

>>18441686
Thanks for the vid, have to rewatch several times here
t. brainlet.

>>18441516

shut it down