/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18418525
only miner bills react immediately
than it tends to fill the gap cause miners ain't selling, so there is less sell pressure both from halving and miners

because they want to shake out weak hands

There seems to be some confusion regarding whether or not the halving will cause BTC to appreciate. I believe the biggest argument against a price appreciation of BTC is the “priced in” meme, which postulates that because the halving is already known, it must already be reflected in the BTC price. This reasoning is based on the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which describes the market as a sentient entity that “prices in” all known information into the value of the underlying asset or security. Well, what BTC has demonstrated over the last decade is that the EMH does not apply to it. This is because BTC is still treated as a highly speculative asset, and as such, the market tends to exaggerate and “price in” RISK as opposed to opportunity. What does this mean? Simply put, all of BTC’s potential risks (miner capitulation, software bugs, government intervention) remain constantly priced in UNTIL the risks are deemed improbable and the OPPORTUNITY can finally be priced in. So this means that the halving effect (opportunity) on price is delayed until the market gets over its RISK fear, i.e., BTC halves and then DOES NOT experience the aforementioned risks. Once this happens the price trends up again as the market adjust to the OPPORTUNITY (decreased supply). So in other words, buy fucking BTC you faggots.

>>18418597
Why don't they price in the emh fear Vs risk index in?

>>18418525
Reward halves
Inefficient miners get fucked, slowly
They usually will have energy contracts and lag time between they go bust, usually 3 months
If BTC stays as it is, miners will capitulate by August.
These inefficient miners couldn’t save any BTC as they had to cover costs, so sell pressure is high (although halved, which is positive for price action by itself)
Once they capitulate the efficient miners with more buffer, get MORE bitcoin per 10 mins.
As they’re efficient, they save more bitcoin and sell pressure eases
This allows a less volatile accumulate period with a slow rise.

Thus, begins the bullmarket, a year later is when things get interesting.

>>18418525
Miners have shitloads of BTC they sell cheaper than they could by holding, and that supresses price. As they run out, the price moves up

>>18418525
halfnig is priced in

>>18418622
They sell for usdt
Mark my words
Usdt will collapse a few days before the halvening and fuck us all

>>18418525
Because it's just whale manipulation, and the higher the price the harder it is to pump

> why isn't the entire future of everything already priced in, why does time even exist

>>18418525
That model is dow defunct because money printer go brrrr. BTC will hit at least 250k this cycle. Probably upwards of 1 million.

>>18418525

Everybody keeps forgetting that

1) Oil is cheap as fuck
2) China that controls 70% of Bitcoin has locked it in very cheaply
3) Along with Russia, China has been hoarding gold.

They will take advantage of the corona they created, make oil even cheaper, create a gold backed cryptocurrency, use BTC to destroy the dollar before this and the world will officially change forever.

Screenshot this, frame it. This is what is happening in the next 2 years.

>>18419235
im all in btc so i dont care about the dollar

>>18418525
less BTC incoming
+ same amount of BTC wallets lost
=> deflation

>>18419235
china is going to get assraped by the immense decrease in demand for useless goods in europe and america

>>18419235
China might establish a silk road type of thing. US gets rekt long-term unless you strengthen your industry.

>>18418525
for the next 10 years crypto will a world asset. Beyond 2030 itll get destroyed. Pax americana will end. Israel will be the new world power. They are gonna implement Gold and Silver again.

>>18418597
this better not be a copy pasta because it is based and screencapped

>>18418525
this chart is old

>>18419552
>>18419235
It's amazing that I'll be living through this. A complete upending of the system. Wondering if anyone can argue the opposite - that nothing will change with all these factors on the table.

>no jobs. continued structural unemployment and depressed workers since the 2000s
>at least 12 central banks going brrr plus emerging UBI
>boomer hedge fund guy saying silver is the play of the decade
>JPM's silver hoard
>younger guys in finance hedging their bets in btc

The other crazy thing is Arthur Hayes predicting debt jubilee.. fucking amazing if the current system we have just plods along unscathed.

>>18419687
I have earned so much disdain just mentioning a possible debt jubilee, why are economics majors so cucked

>>18419687
It's gotten to the point where if I see hoard/horde used correctly, I still do a double take. Thank you for not being a faggot today.

>>18419717
is that essentially cancelling all debt? how could that ever happen?

>>18418525
>Then why the price don't immediately react to halving?
because the future price and the systemic risks and externalizes of regulatory and market behavior are all priced in at once.

>>18420103
it can't they will just make more debt forever instead and pay debt off with new debt.

>>18418597
You're right. I will buy BTC, a month from now. Buying it now would just be asking for it

>>18420194
i agree kinda... you probably won'tbe able to buy it this low a month (more like two) from now, but the risks are much more limited some time after the halving.

>>18418525
Halving is priced in, just like corona

>>18420194
alternatively you could just buy right now and short hedge on margin.
btc goes down you win the price difference, btc goes up significantly you lose your hedge margin and bought cheap, price doesn't change you lose nothing and gain nothing.

>>18418597
fucking retard telling people to buy bitcoin literally after saying it's because risks that may happen may not happen

>>18418525
the market isn't always logical, actually i've come to realize it's a lot stupider than you would ever imagine.

>>18420253
Welcome to crypto, newfag.

>>18418525
>top gullibility
i invested all my life savings because a jpeg told me to do so

>>18418525
because it's actually priced in, you can literally know when every single one is, its effects, and how it will effect miners
if there is anything that could ever be priced in it's conis halving
if people think there will be a sudden jump when it halves they're braindead retards

>>18419205
320k is the most realistic prediction.

Reminder that it´s only social perception and speculation that keeps the BTC price high, and that it could fall apart at any moment. All it takes is for people to not view it as valuable, and it will be worth less than the mud under your shoe

>>18419475

China has enough people to sustain its economy even if all western trade is cut

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-kemp/column-chinas-internal-not-export-market-matters-more-for-world-economy-john-kemp-idUSL8N2AW6LX

according to btc maximalist btc price will increase long term forever, lmao. It will never stabilized that´s for sure, so it will increase forever until it has a market cap of 10 gorillion dollars. You guys understand this is not substainable?

>>18421613

Nop. It will flatten out when the FED stops having the world on a FIAT basis. Then you will see a linear increase that matches mining.

>>18421721
Imagine believing this. Btc is slow, uselsss and will fall apart without block rewards. I suggest you read all the academic written papers by some of the brightest people in the world on why Bitcoin can´t work without block rewards. But it seems like the entire btc community just ignores it, and pretends the problem doesn´t exist.

>>18421816

>>18421578
remember reading that, too bad he couldnt predict the current clusterfuck
really interested in seeing how it will affect the halvening

>>18419235
>1) Oil is cheap as fuck
>2) China that controls 70% of Bitcoin has locked it in very cheaply
Only one can be true

>>18420233
Wait, it's not that easy is it? Where is the catch?

>>18418525

Holy fuck so many retards talking about something they don't understand.

The halving immediately halves the amount of new bitcoin being created and sold by miners. It means in the weeks and months after the halving, daily sell volume is lower, meaning BTC prices go up even if buy volume remains the same as it was before the halving.

There's a mathematical reason why the halving appreciates BTC price. It isn't just some random magic moment or change in sentiment that's possible to "price in".

>>18422089
the catch is if it fucks up liqs you and then crashes with no survivors you get completely fucked.
but right now (and especially baout a week before halving) that's not a likely scenario if it fucks up it won't be making new lows. if you size your positions well you can get out of an underwater short on the halving dump.

>>18422208
>It means in the weeks and months after the halving, daily sell volume is lower
i have it on good authority that gox trustee will pick up the slack for a while

>>18422208
While sell volume is slightly lower it really doesn't improve bitcoin's fundamentals at all.

>>18422234
Tbh I think I'm just gonna DCA over the next 2 months and do the good old buy and hold

>>18421909
The summer of 21' is gonna be really cash.

>>18422208
lamo, there's currently 1800btc mined each day so 900 coin less after the halvening
that's less than the volume of 50$ 1min dump on the scale of this market
the miners selling pressure being cut in half is completely meaningless now

> There's a mathematical reason why the halving appreciates BTC price.
no, the price pump after the halvening because whale use that excuse to pump the price, and make retail fomo the top then dump on them

>>18422286
you can do that not at these price most likely but it will probably still be under $10k for a short while.

>>18422208
but demand for bitcoin only decreases, therefore you theory falls apart. Demand for bitcoin will drop in the next few years, just wait and see

>>18422343
most of that is MMs, wash trading, or scam trading from Asia. Money in Vs money out is all that matters, so that supply of additional BTC matters. Capitulation of inefficient miners allowing the efficient miners to mine and HOLD some rather than being forced to sell, further reduces the supply.

>>18422343

Imagine being retarded enough to think that even half the reported BTC trading volume is actually real.

In reputable BTC/fiat markets, where miners typically dump their mined BTC, it takes a huge chunk out of the selling volume which is combating against fiat/BTC buying volume (i.e. new money entering the market).

Add that difference up in the numerous months after the halving, and it makes a big difference.

>>18422438
Even if the sell volume from miner's were 0 it wouldn't mean bitcoin would rocket to $100k. Stop being delusional.

what some phags don´t get is that the big players are accumalting dollars, the btc is only a means to getting more dollars, so the big whales will dump their entire stack on you at some point

>>18422438
what this guy said,


Can all the retards who don't understand the halving or miners please read this, then talk, its tiring educating idiots.

https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/2020-halving-analysis

>>18418597
So much filler and so many two dollar words to say absolutely nothing of value. Read a book

>>18422431

I'm sure people said the same thing after the first and second halvings too. All the post-halving needs for another bull run is this:

1). Existing BTC sell pressure to remain static in the short/medium term.
2). Halving to cut new BTC sell pressure in half.
3). Price appreciation caused by 1 + 2 to improve bullish sentiment, further increasing buying while restricting selling.

Steps 1 and 2 could just be the first 20% of the run and trigger the sentiment required to carry the other 80% up to wherever it will peak.

>>18422293
You have got a Cristal ball? Would you please tell to my grandma I am sorry for putting my fingers in a jug with jam, I just couldn't resist She know it is my favorite , but I didn't mind to be my brother punished for ...
No one knows the future <-- can you put that data in your software?, wishful thinking is a mall wear in your head, get rid of it .

>>18422510
There's no evidence of increased demand/interest in bitcoin. There's no bullish sentiment. I would say beyond the moonboy maxi circlejerk most people are apathetic or bearish toward bitcoin.

>>18422431
>but demand for bitcoin only decreases
rofl of course.. source: your ass i bet.

>>18422526
>There's no evidence of increased demand/interest in bitcoin
we are not in that market cycle. we are not even in the stealth phase before the rally even where fart for brains like you usually declare btc dead.

>>18418597
Another thing is BTC price is a reflection of the value of the overall network. After a halvening, mining is worth less and the network slows after difficulty in increases and so the entire market is incentivised to bring mining to a profitable level. If mining does cease then it's only use is for pet digital rock trading on an exchange. So either BTC increases in value or it ceases to exist. I guess in that case you either are betting on decentralization or you're not.

>>18422574
>market cycle

I really feel bad for you. I can't imagine thinking of the world in essentially what amounts to Prophesy.

>Dude, it's the fourth cycle of the 3rd bollinger band Fibonacci line, that means bitcoin will go to 100k!


What the fuck is this, Horoscopes? Bitcoin doesn't follow whatever magical plan you've concocted in your brain, nigger. Wake up. 7 transactions per second. Lightning hasn't grown at all. Tether printing 100 million per week and bitcoin barely moves.

>>18422574
>we are not even in the stealth phase
LAMO that level of delusion,
bitcoin is 11 fucking years old and every normie on earth saw it crash from 20k to 6k in 3 weeks

>>18422658
we had a few stealth phases and bubbles but the next one is gonna start after post halving dip.
learn to market cycles m8 to avoid embarrassing yourself...

>>18422523
>>18422658
Don't buy bitcoin. It's going to crash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

>>18422658
also fucking newfags i swear... $20k to $6k? where were you when bitcoin went to 0.2 cents? you couldn't even sell to get out because there were literally no buyers.

>>18422628
so when i tell you after this summer will come fall and winter and a new spring i'm making a prophesy? okay newfag...

"it's priced in" is priced in. no one expects Bitcoin to moon. in fact the ta fags declared Bitcoin "officially" dead when it crashed through $7k. when everyone thinks it's dead is when it usually moons.

>>18422628
funny how the last print was 5 days ago and btc has stooped pumping since too
but you know there's just so much demand for this crap

>>18422711
>>18422703
>>18422690
>>18422686

don't worry faggot the whale will probably pump this trash again after the halvening and then crash it again

>>18422690
comedy gold

>>18422756
>will probably pump this trash again after the halvening and then crash it again
like the seasons so predictable, but the ath happens between halvings so around 2021-2022 you could expect the new parabolic rally. there will be a whole year of stealth phase crab where people will just scream "see? the halving was a nothingburger we never made it back to the ath it's going to zero waaaaa" that's when smart money dca in. not before the halving no not in the post halving dump that can potentially crash the market structure no. in the stealth phase after.
of course degenerate gamblers try to trade market sentiment. it's a fault of mine also can't resist playing bets on what i think will happen.

>>18418525
>why the price don't immediately react to halving?
Because it is NOT priced in

>>18422756
>don't worry faggot the whale will probably pump this trash again after the halvening and then crash it again.
I'm okay with this

Also want to point out that institutions are prepping the road for traditional finance to crypto. Crypto custodians are preparing biggest being Fidelity, crypto regulations are being developed, Mnuchin brought on a lieutenant from coinbase to oversee us banking operations, digital than and digital dollar in the works; institutes have barely gotten in on the action. Institutional custodians expand access to BTC for miles. And if you know anything about custodians, they like to sell from their own inventory

>>18422510
people are leaving bitcoin in droves, it has officialy failed as proven in the last crash. IT CANNOT WORK WIHOUT BLOCK REWARDS AND IS FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED. Why are btc maximalists ignoring this. BTC will fail one day its almost certain, and it´s gonna become more and more clear

>>18422953
The only time I was able to see bitcoin clearly was after I sold. Then, since I was no longer invested anymore, I could take an unbiased look at the state of the project and see it was a failure.

If you're invested, you invite bias from your desire to be rich and to be right.

>>18422953
our entire modern financial system is fundamentally flawed yet it will not stop working any time soon.
btc will survive or die but it will do one more insane bull run 100%.

>>18423175
nocoiner cope at it's finest. there is still nothign else on thiw world

>>18423175
nocoiner cope at it's finest.

there is still nothing on this world that can do what bitcoin can do. it's not perfect it's just the only real crypto we have.

>it takes $400 mil a day to keep btc at 7k
>after halving it only take $200 mil
>the extra $200 mil is now pumping your bags

If BTC ever gets mainstream enough that you will be able to allocate some of your 401k into BTC, without a fucking doubt BTC will reach an absolute minimum of $100k per coin as a conservative estimate.

>>18422343
Imagine not knowing that at least 99% of volume is faked.

>>18423997
won't be that easy, the gox trustee is waiting to unload without crashing the market again. he will match the missing miner supply.

>>18424053
you can do that already with gbtc.

>>18424079
Dunno what that is, but I have two 401ks from mainstream investment funds and neither have gbtc or any crypto as an option....it's not mainstream yet, just because a literal who 401k company offers it doesn't mean shit.

>>18418525
>Then why the price don't immediately react to halving?
>Notice how the 2nd halving happened in June 2016 but it wasn't until mid 2017 BTC price started to gain traction

This study shows there is a 12 month delay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z_YBO9l4Zg&ab_channel=ValueofBitcoin

>>18424107
dunno how it is i'm not a burger but tone vays talking about it constantly how he trades bitcoin tax free in his 401k

>>18424107
>Etrade
>Schwab
>literal who 401k companies