/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18235163
>investing in oil, when RU and KSA are flooding the market, while commuters are under house arrest.
>investing in anything while capitalism is in free fall.
good luck

>>18235731
When world economies start opening up the demand for oil will skyrocket. You cant store as much as you can produce within these months, so expect a major deficit and skyrocketing oil prices.
>capitalism in freefall
You’re a moron

>>18235163
Oil ftw

>>18236157
what surgeries did he get?

>implying that the bottom won't fall right the fuck out of the market before oil companies sell back your $20 stonks for 10 cents and privatise

What's the best way to invest in oil. I've got 3k to burn in robinhood.

>>18234307
tBH

>>18236428
GUSH

>>18236694
oh man, I really miss Thomas Wictor

>>18235880
>When world economies start opening up the demand for oil will skyrocket.
after tanking for MONTH AFTER MONTH AFTER MONTH!!!!
Why not wait until May or June?

>>18236388
Just a hair transplant I think

>>18236428
You buy all the oil

>shoots gas you fragile tank

>>18235163

I'm in CVX DHT EPD PAA EURN

shit is straight cash

>>18236428
tankers

>>18236428
RDS.A or B and XOM

>>18235163
Tesla is going bankrupt, cap this.

>>18235163
how tf do u invest in oil

that shit has only 40 days of expiry date

>>18240074
>

>>18240074
> What are futures contracts?

>>18240561
How many bullets do you currently have? I buy some every month. Or did until this pandemic, bullet sales are in the same boat as silver at the moment

>>18235731
Have you ever heard the term Buy when theres Blood in the streets?

>>18240560

Fuck China
It's unbelievable how much their virus and their attempt at cover up has BTFO of the world.

Saudi's/Russia are flooding the market to fuck with US shale. Both countries need oil at a higher price to balance their budgets. It's a war of attrition. At some point they have to turn the tap off, and oil will moon. The question is when, and how much damage will be done to US companies before then.

Oil futures are a good bet if you can predict the pump. Stay away from oil etfs like USO or GUSH, they rely on month to month futures and get bogged by contango when oil goes up.

>>18240574
ever hear the term everybody is a communist in a crisis?

It's the memevirus. Defenestration is the only known cure.

>>18236767
It will be priced in by then.

>>18240600
>contango
literally every future contract is fucked by contango right now

>>18236157
He looks better bald

>>18240672
Oil ETFs are notorious for it when oil is rising. Compare USO to WTI from 2016 to 2018.

>>18239325
I havent had insurance in a few years. I've done at least 40,000 uninsured and counting

Just invested into
>Carriage and Hitch Bull
This shits too cheap. LMAOing at you faggots buying F, no one wants to deal with an automobile, when they could use a simple horse drawn wagon for much cheaper.

>>18235880
>>18240574
Judging by ETFs like FENY, GUSH, USO, VDE, and XLE blood appears to be running in the streets. What are we probably looking at for ROI though?

I'm guessing that investing in oil and the energy sector is all about the dividends.

>>18240624
I hope you have the camping skills to survive homelessness.

Oil is absolutely bearish. Bottom at around 10.

>>18239903
Right, even when we all drive electric we're still gonna need oil to power our flamethrowers

>>18240672
>>18240719

>contango
quick run down on contango?

>>18235163
Doesn't this dude support ARPA?

>>18235163
Portfolio
>clr
>Mur
>Rdsb (had this one at a 22 wish I just went all in )
>Xom
>pbf
Please tell me it's gon be 500% by next year. This is my last Hope to make up for all my fucked up shit gambling and drinking. I just want to tell my dad he Can retire by 2025

>>18244063
Yeah

>>18244212
at least three years

>>18236428
>>18240064
COP
is a good one. Strongest dividends too

>>18235163
>XOP up 16% right now
Feels good oil bros

Do you guys think that the Russians and Saudis are going to come to an agreement soon or is this a Trump pump and dump before his friday meeting? If I am up should I take profit and wait for the price to go back down?

>>18238196
And a jaw augmentation

>>18247073

I AM THE ALPHA OF THIS THREAD. BEWARE

Oil Anon here back from previous thread, good morning faggots:
This is a dead cat bounce due to Trump meeting with oil CEO's giving false hope that we can prevent the inevitable.
Demand destruction continues to intensify.
Supply glut worsens.
Storage is disappearing.
At this rate even if we manage to end the escalation in oil production by OPEC it won't matter.
Trump might be able to save the internal US market through some tariffs and threats of force. But that won't spare global markets from the demand disaster.
Lets talk numbers:
IHS Markit who believed we will reach Armageddon in storage by July at the latest June at earliest predicted for those numbers that supply glut and demand destruction Q1 would equal ~7.4 mbpd and Q2 ~12.4 million.
Under their models we have time to fix this if everyone agrees to cut supply now.
I should mention I will be using Rystead for this as they are the only ones not only giving good numbers with solid models they are the only ones consistently updating their models(once a week) to reflect the newfound information.
>3 months in a quarter
>Demand destruction in January was ~1.5mbpd in February ~8.5 million
>Demand destruction for March was first predicted to be only 9.5-10mbpd depending on scenario, April 10-11mbpd depending on how we mitigated the virus
>Vitol comes out mid-March with a bombshell 15-20mpd is possible for April demand destruction, Goldman thinks it'll average to 18.4mbpd
>Rystead keeps updating their numbers to reflect changing circumstance
>We actually now have the numbers for March
>March was actually ~14.5 mbpd on demand side
>Q1 was ~8.2mbpd on demand side alone
>Supply side started in march in one month Saudi's increased production by 2mbpd out of an initially promised 3 mbpd that was later raised to 3.6 mbdp
1/?

lmao

>>18247747
nice post fag so wen to buy, what companies and what price

>>18247900
checked, so tell us >>18247747 pls

>>18247999
checkered

>>18247999
check em 999 eoy confirmed

>>18247747
I put 20,000 in UWT this morning, did I do good?

>>18247747
Hmm. I never fuck with oil tho

Continued from:
>>18247747
>UAE increased production by about 1mbpd although at a slower rate
>Other smaller OPEC followed suit
>Specific other companies such as INEOS likewise increased production
Lets say for simplicity supply glut was 1 mbpd over March.
That brings Q1 demand to an average of 8.5mbpd. That means IHS Markit underpredicted Q1 storage crisis ~1.1mbpd over the quarter.
First quarter is a length of 91 days this year. That is ~100.1million barrels.
Total supply filled in Q1 ~773.5 million barrels.
For reference total storage space worldwide is estimated 5.7 billion.
We already had over half the storage filled when the crisis began and remember much of that storage is either government(as in strategic petrol reserves) including US states. Which is to say how much storage do we realistically have to play with when the crisis started? Karryos thought we had 2 billion IHS 1.6 billion both numbers from the start of this crisis. That means we have ~830-1230 in storage left Q2.
Lets talk second quarter predictions now:
Also three months as time frame.
>Most recent prediction by Rystead is now ~22.3 mbpd from pre-crisis levels in April
>They think rebound in May will be to ~16mbpd, ~12mbpd in June.
Demand side alone our current best estimates for Q2 are for simplicity 22+16+12=50/3=~16.66667mbpd demand side alone that is already 4 mbpd more then the IHS model.
Supply side is also increasing at a faster rate:
Saudi oil increase by April first was ~2mbpd, UAE by ~1mbpd, Sauidis still have another 1.6million to go by June.
Meanwhile other players have increased production including INEOS and minor OPEC.
Lets just be really conservative here and say 3 million barrels for April, 4 for May 5 for June.
That is Q2 supply demand difference of ~20 + 2/3 mbpd, lets round down to ~20.5mbpd for simplicity.
2/?

I bought xom yesterday, am I gonna make it?

Continued from:
>>18247747
>>18248366
Going back to IHS that means they under predicted the severity of this thing by ~8.1 mbpd over the quarter(not blaming them these were early estimates most industry people didn't realize it would be this bad).
91 days in Q2.
They under predicted the damage Q2 by ~737million barrels.
Total capacity need for Q2 glut w/supply increase:
~1.8655 billion.
Assuming we magically subtract get supply increase to 2 million over the quarter somehow.
~1.6835 billion
Assuming we magically balance out supply increase to net 0 over Q2(Mathematically hilariously improbable unless we bomb wells):
~1.5 billion
Capacity in the model from IHS left from Q1:
830 million.
Capacity from Karryos model:
1.23 billion
Both hit in Q2 EVEN IF SUPPLY INCREASE DID NOT EXIST.
But wait there is more:
Remember:
1) Most of the demand destruction slowdown in last two months relied on China slowing down the scale of the damage.
2) Most of the rebound predicted to net start net month and the basically turn around the demand destruction some time this month is supposed to come from China.
3) China lies.
Lets be nicer in todays model and assume they magically are not lying about their oil consumption rn and giving the world bad data sets(lets assume instead of storing that oil they are buying they just burn that which is greater then what they are capable of using rn[something they have done] to fake productivity)
4) Every single model thusfar has under predicted the damage.
5) None of the models take into account a 2nd wave in China forcing a shutdown.
6) The Rystad model for example see's basically returning to pre-crisis oil usage by October November assuming effective prevention as they call it. Assuming we Manage the virus they see demand destruction not being as bad in April ~15.5mbpd but May being ~14.5 and June being ~13 with Demand total Q2 ~14 + 1/3
Plugging that back in assuming supply glut of 4 million:
3/?

Continued from:
>>18247747
>>18248366
>>18249025
~1.668 billion over Q2.
Assuming 2 million supply glut:
~1.486 billion
Assuming no supply glut:
~1.3 billion
IHS leftover room:
830.
Karryos:
1.23 billion
Meaning this quarter regardless of how we deal with the virus or deal with supply issue SHTF.
To recap thus far best case scenario we fill just over 2 billion of the worlds 5.7 billion total storage in the first half 2020.
Worst case 2.6 billion.
We had more then 50% of the worlds capacity filled already before the crisis.
Quick note before I continue the reason why the control or manage the virus distinction does not matter for Q1 is that Q1 has ended we have its data now. This is only a Q2, Q3, Q4 distinction.
Rysteads current model is Q3 ~4mbpd demand destruction(~6.5 in July ~4 in August ~1.5 in September) if we basically defeat the virus with strict harsh V-Shaped measures that is ~368 million barrel excess in demand destruction alone(assume supply is fixed by that point).
Assuming a management approach takes hold then 11 million July 10 million August ~8 million September.
Average Q3 assuming we manage is lets ~9.5 for simplicity that is 874 million barrels.
Updating that we V-Shape model(we just assume regardless all glut in supply dissapears in Q3):
Assuming Q2 4 mbpd glut:
~3 billion barrels excess from Q1-Q3 2020.
Assuming Q2 2mbpd glut:
~2.8 billion barrels same period.
No glut Q2:
~2.6 billion barrels same period.
Under the management model for the virus:
Glut Q2 4mbpd:
~3.25 billion barrels by end Q3.
Glut Q2 2mbpd:
~3.1 billion barrels.
Glut Q2 0mbpd:
~2.95 billion barrels.
Lets talk 2nd wave and speculation:
4/?

Continued from:
>>18247747
>>18248366
>>18249025
>>18249221
So far:
Storage will be maxed best case scenario assuming everything is literally minmaxed to give us the most time to prepare at end of Q2 so end of June(assuming Karryos, no supply glut Q2, and we do mitigating V-Shape stomping) to end of May(probably midlate due to spread not being linear and supposedly peaking April and May, assuming IHS).
That is best case scenario for oil markets(again unless we start bombing wells).
Under that scenario Oil is still fucked by demand destruction for the entirety of 2020 continuing into 2021.
If its the V-Shaped model best case scenario is:
Karryos end of May, IHS beginning of May.
Under this scenario Oil markets are still fucked demand wise until Q3.
Again this is all our best case.
We assume we won't get a nightmare in between case where either 1) V-shape measures are extended to end of May or 2) 2nd Wave literally anywhere causes increased measures to return in said country 3) Our V-shape measures end up being enforced sufficient to destroy the curve(which is a faulty assumption what if we get a nightmare scenario where due to failure to enforce V-shaped measures are not as effective as we modeled b/c our models assumed higher efficiency).
That is your update on my current model gents.
I'll now start answering questions addressed to me in the order they arrived.
If anyone needs sources on these numbers I'd be happy to send, anyone have something they'd like to correct or add to my admittedly napkin math feel free. If anyone thinks I missed something in my assessment or have not considered some factor kindly bring it up(I'd prefer to have a more accurate model then an autistic flex).
5/5

>>18249799
TLDR, team bull or team bear????

>>18247900
>>18247999
>>18248079
>>18248113
Outside of Tankers(which I would buy before their earnings call during some dip and everyone figures out the obvious that this storage crisis will make them a killing and they are currently massively undervalued), not much until SHTF.
Shale if Trump tariffs, SuperMajors if no tariffs.
HESS is a good pick and a rather safe one.
OXY is a riskier pick(bankruptcy potential) but if it pays of will be one of the best flips in the industry(I think the crisis will force them down to ~$5 underlying stock price).
Shell and Chevron have the biggest tanker fleets of the majors so they will probably outperform the other majors during this crisis.
Refineries are getting fucked right now but they are a safe pick longterm wait for things to get worse and for them to more closely near bottom. Crude pumpers who own their own refineries(XOM comes to mind) will do better then both crude pumpers and refinery independents due to being able to minimize losses(less mouths to feed). All majors survive this regardless due to massive cash reserves. The question is 1) Will shale survive(in which case majors might be in trouble longterm) 2) How will the majors contract during the crisis duration(mostly a function of pre-existing assets[and whether they can mitigate losses] and what they will do during the crisis, Shale business is a simple up or down push in opposite direction of where shale itself goes).
How the industry recovers largely depends on the shale question. If the shale companies are wiped out the survivors(10 or so companies of the 74) will be weakened and crippled for at least a year more likely 2 or three after the crisis end(Damage was still done these countries need to recover before they can start expanding again). Majors will outperform as a result.
1/2

>>18250220
Bear.

> ...best case scenario for oil markets(again unless we start bombing wells).
>Under that scenario Oil is still fucked by demand destruction for the entirety of 2020 continuing into 2021.
Best case we're fucked rest of year, worst case who fucking knows.

>>18247900
>>18247999
>>18248079
>>18248113
Part two of response:
If shale is saved, once we leave the crisis Shale rebuilds faster in that scenario and restarts expansion sooner conquering more market share(As say Nigerians decrease production due to cash issues shale fills that gap in faster then the majors and OPEC under this scenario). There will likely be global production cuts to try and rebuild wiggle room in capacity(also we probably end up building more capacity). The Russians have been warning about this for years(which is why they are so pissy about OPEC production cuts). When production cuts are needed, longterm when demand returns the American shale companies beat everyone else to market. Ergo bankrupt them or else they slowly peel out your market share every time demand goes up.
Plus side for refineries(especially the American) is we will probably have a push for drug manufacturing to return to the USA, they will benefit greatly from that as and when that happens(petrochems production).
Pipeline companies will get fucked shortrun due to overflow rn(maintenance will be a bitch when this is over and currently they are being forced to lower their cut due to crisis), due to their fundamentals even if they go bust(unlikely, I don't know of a pipeline with big debt problems a buyout scenario is more likely) the infrastructure they own is valuable such that at the correct price(they have not bottomed yet but depending on the company even at current price) you still walk away with a profit.
2/2

>>18240699
You sound better retarded

>>18248135
I'm presuming you mean on the ETN itself not a long put option for UWT(no clue if that even exists I've never checked, but you said put so first thing that came to mind).
I'm assuming you mean you bought ETN itself.
I think we are all aware at this point that 3 times velocity means buying the correct dip matters most.
Crude is going to keep going down due to 1) negotiations internationally being insufficient even if they work to prevent the cliff 2) Trump seems less and less likely to tariff 3) When storage capacity is finally reached global oil prices fall off a fucking cliff.
I would try and get out rn(with minimal/acceptable losses) there will probably be a rally tomorrow as further hype grows for the Trump meeting possibly another rally after he speaks depending on what he says. All of that would be a dead cat bounce. Even if there are two rallies you are safer selling on the first one. That all assumes we even get one and that said news(which broke yesterday) is not already priced in.
As a side note as someone who does not follow ETN's I heard that UWT is being delisted. If this is true then it is likely you end up fucked with your current position at least.
There might exist some position when we reach ~bottom in terms of glut is almost gone where UWT still has a month or two before delisting(I don't know the date for that so I can't tell you) and skyrockets as a result. This position is not it.

>>18235163
> investing
> in a commodity
That's speculating, not investing.

>>18250517
Quality post anon, I appreciate it

>>18247047
Take out your profit fren'.
Supply only makes the problem worse, it is demand destruction that kills us.
This rally is false hope.
>>18248407
Depends how longterm you hold.
Unless we find some magical cure to the demand issue we have not even smelled bottom.
>>18250220
Crab until we reach bear moment then super bear the greatest bear, a bear like you've never before seen in the history of this industry and probably the history of commodities.
The industry will not disapear, but how it contracts and the timetable for eventual bounce back(and what that looks like for specific companies) is contingent on what happens between now and running out of storage.

>>18250517
FRO $10 call for August 21 yes or no? Earlier or later date? Higher strike price? It’s currently trading at $8.21

>>18250811>>18250675

Or maybe MMP? Lay an options call on me wise Oil Anon and I will follow blindly

>>18250517
Thanks Oilanon for the analysis. Keep it up.

>>18236443
should I buy Gush now and HODL,even if it's a leveraged ETF?

>>18249799
thanks oil anon

ave maria

Are you guys all NEETs, or do some of you trade and have a job?

How the hell do you watch the market and make trading decisions whilst working full time???

I bought XOM calls a few weeks ago, but they expire in July. Do you think that's way too soon?

Go for sheer capital gains or go for dividends?

>>18252247
theoretically gains should outweigh dividends. Are you planning to hodl for a long time or just short term?

>>18243856
-Rothschilds bow to Bogdanoffs -In contact with aliens -Possess psychic-like abilities -Control France with an iron but fair fist -Own castles & banks globally -Direct descendants of the ancient royal blood line -Will bankroll the first cities on Mars (Bogdangrad will be be the first city) -Own 99% of DNA editing research facilities on Earth -First designer babies will in all likelihood be Bogdanoff babies -both brothers said to have 215+ IQ, such intelligence on Earth has only existed deep in Tibetan monasteries & Area 51 -Ancient Indian scriptures tell of two angels who will descend upon Earth and will bring an era of enlightenment and unprecedented technological progress with them -They own Nanobot R&D labs around the world -You likely have Bogdabots inside you right now -The Bogdanoffs are in regular communication with the Archangels Michael and Gabriel, forwarding the word of God to the Orthodox Church. Who do you think set up the meeting between the pope & the Orthodox high command (First meeting between the two organisations in over 1000 years) and arranged the Orthodox leader's first trip to Antarctica in history literally a few days later to the Bogdanoff bunker in Wilkes land? -They learned fluent French in under a week -Nation states entrust their gold reserves with the twins. There's no gold in Ft. Knox, only Ft. Bogdanoff -The twins are about 7 decades old, from the space-time reference point of the base human currently accepted by our society -In reality, they are timeless beings existing in all points of time and space from the big bang to the end of the universe. We don't know their ultimate plans yet. We hope they're benevolent beings.

>>18252260
Preferably long term hodl.

The funny thing about contango is inverse commodity ETFs can do really well even after the bottom happens

>>18235163
based

>>18235731
>>18240614
cringe

>>18250675
Not anyone you were replying to but appreciate the info.

>>18252339
no reason not to go dividend stocks then. you might make more short term with gain stonks, but over long term that will be offset by gains from dividends. How long depends on the dividend.

>>18252390
Thinking I will invest in both to a degree. Enough in dividends to matter in the long run and enough in the stuff that will moon to matter when I gradually sell them off to buy more for dividends. Now to figure out an asset allocation plan...

>>18252427
XOM, RDS/B, and USOI were shilled here a few threads back.

>>18252454
Gotcha. Thank you.

>>18250811
Call as in long Call option?
If so they then by August they should be above $10 how much I don't know but FRO own VLCC right, those store what average 2 million barrels(if I recall correctly). They also have some other ships but the VLCC are their main assets.
I don't think the market itself has caught on to just how good tankers will do yet and in this current clown market there is always the chance they go lower.
Question is what is the ask price for the option itself.
They are also likely to go back down further at some point before earnings.
>>18251087
They do pipes don't they?
If that is all they do I wouldn't risk an option on them. Oil will tank more and Tankers will rise more as a %.
I think tankers are the safer bet right now for options simply because that is guranteed at this point to skyrocket.
Zerohedge related:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Market-Chaos-Has-Created-The-Greatest-Trade-In-Decades.html
The key to a good options pick is not just predicting direction and correct timeframe and strike price, its also buying at a good price and with current volatility there a chance of more optimal prices if it goes back to say 7(the risk inherent to that is that it doesn't and instead rallies in the between making you entering the position much more painful).
As a secondary note on Tankers Q2 earnings will be insane for them so depending on when the earnings report arrives August seems like a good date for them.

>>18247747

What happens when storage is filled up? I figure they have to shut the fields down, but what does that practically mean?

>>18252597
What does it mean? You can see this in natural gas. Gas and crude are both extracted in the shale process. Gas can be so cheap that the costs of storing, carrying, and processing it would be greater than the spot price. They burn the gas.

>>18252194
I'm a college student rn and online learning happens to be something I'm great at so all of a sudden due to quarantine my free time has increased by a rather large factor. Also I was watching this specific market on and off for a few years now.
>>18252235
Way to soon.
July we have no storage, XOM will be bleeding money, even if they are one of the guaranteed survivors the market is likely to reflect that they are bleeding money in their valuation.
>>18252247
Depends on the dividend.
Majors are likely to restore dividends and some(XOM) might not even cancel dividends. Longterm I prefer the other majors as a more responsible response to the current crisis better positions them to rebuild after it relative to where they started but, you can never underestimate XOM. Still the other majors have a real shot here to kick the king for his arrogance(and they all have a case for why they could outperform XOM in this crisis).
As for non-major picks:
OXY is a great dividend play if they survive and turn around(that is an if there but its a distinct possibility given the current soap opera in progress).
Depending on the price so are some of the majors. If shale survives longterm once that market stabilizes dividends will start arriving more consistently so if Shale wins that might be the better dividend pick if you are thinking 30 years(although a slightly riskier bit b/c you need to pick the right company).
The issue is this will all rebound by five years from now so unless the dividend is incredible you might be better off dumping it at that point to free up the money for another investment.

>>18252628
Isn't that bad for the environment?

>>18252675
I've heard VLCC rates have gone up 300-500% this month. Why wouldn't this be priced into companies that profit from tankers?

>>18252597
No where to store means they need to either find a buyer or find a way to get rid of the oil(since they have no where to put the damn thing) while minimizing loss.
The issue with shutting down fields is its not so simple, oilfields take years to build and to ramp up production likewise takes time. Shale ramps up faster and can be ramped down faster but to say we can simply production out of this crisis is optimistic to say the least. Not in the timetables we currently have.
Practical endpoint is price collapse.
They do anything to minimize loss. If no seller as >>18252628
points out they burn it.
>>18252776
Tanker companies are still below their 52 week highs.
It should be priced in, it will be either when everyone figures it out at once or one of these companies has an earnings call and the information is made official. It hasn't been priced in yet(provable again with the fact that valuation is lower then it was before the crisis) for well I don't honestly know why, if I had to guess:
1) No earnings report yet to prove this to Wall Street
2) Clown market distorting signals.

>>18249799
first question.
what are stable stocks and companies to buy into for long term investment. Im looking for put 10,000 into this and want at a good 4 companies that arent going to go bankrupt.

question 2. when to buy? what time to buy and what are you doing?

btw i really appreciate all the effort youre putting into this. Its hard for me to understand all the lingo but I reread your thread like 3 times and i appreciate it immensely.

>>18250262
When is shtf? at what price point?

>>18252853
>Tanker companies are still below their 52 week highs.

What if the tankers are holding oil for a company that goes belly up?

>>18235163
I made 20 bucks off of oil and cashed out again
we invest day by day now

>>18252982
>When is shtf? at what price point?

When storage is filled up, from what I gathered reading OP's posts. It seems it could be as early as May, as late as June. That's when storage for oil around the world gets maxed out and any new production is no longer needed, so the price for almost everything goes practically to zero.

>>18252971
insane brapper on that one

>>18253064
so is that when you buy? isnt there an off chance some companies can fail?
WHAT COMPANIES TO BUY WHEN SHTF THAT WONT FAIL.
PLEEEEEEEEASE

>>18252853
oil anon
im a major basic bitch
just make it super simple
what is the safest companies to buy
and when can you buy them?
are you saying HESS SHELL and CHEVRON will realistically never go bye bye?

>>18252853
braaaaaaaaaaaaaaaap

Update:
Apparently Trump tweeted today about a potential OPEC + Russia production cut between 10-15 million barrels.
Which is retarded.
Total OPEC + Russia production is at most 50 million(an overestimate to prove a point) with their production increases. They would not cut 20-30% of all operations.
Nor would the Russians ever agree to this(any cut), nor would the Saudi's(to a cut this large).
>>18252971
XOM is not going bust but has the biggest spreadsheet problem of all the majors(most cash to play with but they are not doing so hot somethings gotta give).
All the other majors have announced cuts to lower the bleeding(which is healthy)
CVX is probably the better play.
RDS is a great company that will survive this.
COP issue is that while they are solid they only do crude production so they will be bleeding worse then the other companies.
Of the mid-tiers HESS is the safe play.
Of the Shale companies:
EOG, PXD, FANG, CXO, CLR, COG, XEC(maybe) that is not in order of preference I would have to compare their balance sheets to give that answer. Shale is a better bet if we get tariffs otherwise majors and midtiers are just safer.
As to what I'm personally doing, I got screwed by the clown market on a different bet outside the oil market. Currently trying to play a little bit here a little bit there to see how much I have by the time I'm ready to buy in which will be after storage capacity breaks.
I have a few non-oil stocks I'm looking to buy at other prices but that's another topic for another day.
I'll base my strategy(what specifically to buy) on whether shale beats the majors or XOM crushes the little guy.
You welcome fren'.

>>18253348
ok so oilanon
what do you think about PLASTICS? some anon on pol who predicted this entire crash in jan, said to invest into 1. biomeds and 2. plastics.
so wont investing in oil also technically be investing into plastics.
THOUGHTS ON PLASTICS

With the reduction in the cost of oil, are there things that can be made with oil, that are normally not profitable, but this opens a window to produce those materials?

>>18253424
>>18253348
sooo PLASTICS
TELL US ABOUT PLASTICS

>>18240064
dont buy rds.a , only rds.b , or enjoy paying cuck tax to the dutch government on the dividends, otherwise i just bought calls on XOM myself

>>18252982
SHTF depends on your model.
Mathematically speaking I don't see a possibility in hell of it not happening by June(latest assuming the pull literal unicorns out of their ass and I got some numbers off somewhere enough to buy more time).
Where I think its probably going to happen is first becoming a possibility midlatish this month. Most realistic date is probably May. There will probably be news about the price collapsing totally when it happens(and also of 0 storage left). By that point the mainstream(or at least the business mainstream) should notice its about to/just happened.
Short answer: This quarter(who knows when because the big boys models all keep under-predicting and I'm using publicly available numbers for my modeling).
Pricepoint is on a per company basis. E.J. I think $5 is a good price for OXY if they survive/recover(but they are a higher risk play).

>>18253007
When a company goes bust usually debtors and/or shareholders sieze/liquidate assets to try and get their money back. Most of the Tankers storage will be paid for by oil traders(See companies like VITOL).
>>18253064
I'm not OP fren'.
>>18253064
Pretty much this(although there is always a chance if 2nd wave lockdowns of end of April).
>>18253191
Look at cash flow before the crisis look at cash on hand and assets look at breakevens and cuts announced and look at debt(expect higher debt for shale).
The majors should all be fine.

>>18253191
>>18253264
Some shit will fail this is inevitable, mostly in shale possibly OXY.
Other companies will underperform relative to previous performance(I'm hoping but there are numbers to back this, XOM, still will make you money though).
Some will do better.
As to exactly how this plays out I want to see what is agreed to tomorrow.
If you don't come across me again after that:
If tariff, the more aggro the tariff: Shale(pick the healthier companies).
If no tariff majors.
HESS, Shell and Chevron are all very safe picks. I don't know what the actual bottom is here I can only predict roughly when we reach it/start to really see it.
You should probably DCA regardless but so long as you take a safe pick you should make a nice profit.

>>18253593
so what are the majors
TOP 5 SAFEST ONES
also
please keep making these threads bro
DONT LEAVE US

>>18253457
This thumbnail is so much better than the bigger version.

>>18253593
Based oil anon- I followed your post from last night and emptied all of my positions with a profit except PSX I was too slow. Do you think Trump is pulling this out of his ass? Did I mess up selling all of my positions for a profit of 300?

>>18235163
>Oil war still going
>No OPEC deal
>Saudis are desperate but they say they will only drop if all others drop
>Russia not dropping shit
>Trump tweet was pure wishful thinking

If there was a deal, they'd know exactly how much they are going to cut.

>>18235163
>it can't possibly go lower

>>18253399
>Plastics
Plastics longterm due to consumer trends are on the downswing(which is retarded their price point is superior and if you recycle them their carbon footprint is minimal in some cases[plastic bags] superior to the "green alternative"). I don't see any increase in plastic demand but I do see a decrease in the cost of inputs for plastics(but those were already dirt cheap).
Petrochems are the far more interesting play for my money as that is a larger industry.

As for BioMeds for full disclosure: (((JEW))) here, lots of doctors in the family. Generics will do great. TEVA is undervalued rn due to poor previous leadership(that was replaced but new leadership who is excellent btw hasn't had enough time for cleanup).
Pfizer and JNJ are always a safe pick with good dividends and a solid pricepoint.
LLY is a great company with solid management and an impressive portfolio of solid drugs(along with more coming down the pipe). Only problem for them is 1) Large price point 2) no dividend 3) If they get bad management or bad luck on a major bet. That said I like them and both my father and grandfather(both doctors) have money in them(well dad did I told him to cash out before the crash he's planning to buy back in later on).
Of the biotech stocks its really a question of finding those with 1) a good product/product set coming down the pipeline 2) actually able to deliver in both building an effective drug and getting FDA approval and so on.
Biotech are unless you know how to read it or have someone who does a huge risk for a huge potential reward down the line if all goes well. I wouldn't recommend biotech if you don't understand pharmaceuticals well.
Chemical companies specifically those in America will do well due to the public and policy maker sentiment of get our critical supply chains outside of China. PetroChems especially.
>>18253424
>>18253457
Plastics are already profitable as far as I'm aware.
>>18253554
This is very true for Shell investors.

>>18253959
Would you recommend to buy any oil tanker stocks during this period?

>>18253959
so lets say i buy oil stonks at 5 dollars or shit after the crash.
realistically how long do i wait before i sell them? whatt price point do i sell and what time frame are we looking at? years?

>>18253959
More accurately on LLY, no dividend worth jack when compared to Pfizer and JNJ.
>>18253718
The majors are:
XOM
CVX
COP
RDS
BP
TOT

All of the majors outside COP(who spun of their refineries into PSX) have refinery assets. They all have tankers in some quantity but CVX and RDS are the leaders in that regard.

XOM was king for the longest time but there past few years have not been the best and they refuse to make cuts rn(they have enough assets and a high enough grade bonds + cash reserves to survive regardless).
CVX is like XOM but better rn.
RDS is a great dividends and I'm more bullish on them then XOM.
COP while a great dividend stock I worry about their relative overreliance on drilling.
Don't know much(have not looked at the specific balance sheets of) about TOT or BP if I'm being honest but I know enough to know neither is going bust.


As for breakeven, depends on the company I found a Mckinsey report(at least I think it was Mckinsey) a few days ago that went into great detail on this, I'll try to dig it up and post it.
That being said many companies(everyone but XOM) have lowered breakeven through cuts since the crisis began.

>>18254163
So I should diversify with the majors? and that will be safe? or all in one one company? what you figure?

>>18252675
damn son.

wish i traded in my spare time at college instead of playing minecraft and meditating

>>18253797
First of all nice to you again fren'.
>profit of 300
You might kick yourself that you could've gotten a higher profit.
But a profit is better then no profit and this is a dead cat bounce. Regret is silly what is there to regret, you made $300 in one day doing near nothing with (relatively) low risk.
>10-15 million barrels of Oil production cut
He is pulling this out of his ass:
Total worldwide crude production pre-crisis was just under 100 million.
About ~44% of that came from OPEC.
About ~10% from Russia.
About ~15% from America.
He might be able to convince some of the Shale companies to cut be he won't ever convince XOM or the Russians.
I'm not sure how they would even organize that logistically much less convince OPEC to play along to cuts of that large. We are talking double digit percent cuts across the board.
>>18253718
I don't make these threads I just show up in them.
>>18253817
This
>>18254080
Yes probably during the next dip if not now. As a short term play they are great. As a longterm thing Tanker companies don't usually have that impressive returns. So it would be a play to exit when we have demand meeting supply again or probably an even safer is to exit when we approach demand meeting supply by 2-3 million barrels(which really depends on Corona).

>>18254119
>5 dolllars
Realistic for OXY(higher risk but potentially incredible returns). Unrealistic for other companies.
Also depends are you making a dividend play or a pure capital gain play. Dividends on OXY specifically are great that was what got me interested in looking into them(pre-crisis they were about ~$3.20 a year).
You would have to hold at minimum a year best case scenario(but hey that means lower capital gains tax so not the end of the world) more likely two-three or at most five.
Most of the majors will recover to around their precrisis value at some point some slightly higher(thinking CVX) some lower(XOM comes to mind).
OXY has the potential to go back to its pre-Anadarko days(possibly growing even further then that) in valuation possibly higher due to shareholder revolts and better management being kinda inevitable at this point. But they would be a longer hold to recovery due to debt.
HES would be basically an until stabilization + 1-2 earnings report(at most 4 worst case for them) hold to recover most if not all of their value(if I had to guess).
Of the shale if Trump saves shale they will basically be growth stocks with dividends. Cuts to production by weaker OPEC countries and by majors is inevitable. Shale has the fastest boot up time for increasing production. That means they plug any holes created in the market and slowly bleed market share out of OPEC and traditional oil assets(which is how we got to America producing ~15 million barrels in the first place).
But yes we are looking at years and depending on the stock either a dividend hold or a sell for capital gains or a capital gains hold.

>>18235163
>the city of OP

Get rent faggot

>>18253959
ok oilanon, may i ask for a telegram as i am in shipping ( dry bulk ) and also day trade on commodity to get my pension funds?

>>18254390
I'd imagine that there is also an enforceability issue in how are you making sure that all the players aren't under reporting the amount of oil extracted especially given the shady nature of OPEC and Russia.

>>18254677
i for one see no reason why would saudis give such discounts and pump the shit out of oil just to back off and let prices go up while decreasing output

>>18252675
Make an account on seekingalpha and make newsletters

>>18236443
Is this a meme? They have been in freefall basically since they opened.

>>18254213
Diversification is always the safer strategy. I would avoid diversifying into all of them since I think despite historically doing well from these crisis XOM traditional strategy of carrying on and maintaining production(and dividends) so as to be first one to retake market share when demand balances while effective in the past will put them in serious debt considering the scale of the crisis. Grandpa loves them as a dividend stock and anyways he's a long term plays kind of guy.
I would take a few picks in majors and some shale companies if tariff.
HES is a safe pick for the mid-tiers.
>>18254250
Something something I have weird hobbies. I honestly wish I had gotten in sooner, I predicted the crash date correctly but my father didn't listen(he got out when the dow was 27k) and I didn't have his approval to get into trading with my money yet. Also my historic long term picks as a kid succeeded this in hindsight gave me overconfidence(since while my theory was generally right it doesn't teach you best practice/tactics for trading).
Thus one gets cocky:
I didn't predict the intensity/length of the clown rally and how sideways we became last two weeks I underestimated the fed and lost big on that in options. If I had taken my long term picks as a kid and flipped them I would have made a small fortune but no sense crying over spilled milk I'm still young, I've got time to figure it out and learn(and safe enough life situation to play around with the small amount I have in the market for experience which I think is more valuable then what I have in there rn).
No sense dwelling in what ifs only improving over time with acceptable(as per ones situation) losses. Point is even if one gets the theory right or understands the fundamentals its a skill, one needs to take time to figure it out and to improve with acceptable losses given ones circumstance(given mine those are rather large % wise which is why options).

>>18255199
Continued personal anecdotes:
Which is why again for anyone interested(if you have the time) I invite you to please check my math. I think I've calculated it correctly but well I'm still just one person and this is not even my major just a weird hobby.
But that is enough about my personal situation
>>18254602
As in a telegram account?
B/c I have no social media.
>>18254677
This is part of why its a literal cartel they have ways of punishing one another and enforcement but this is obviously a problem inherent to a oligopoly. It's even worse if you were to add the Shale companies(what Trump implied in his tweet) as OPEC + Russia are basically state-run or state-backed companies which means different incentives to free market private shale companies who have greater incentive to cheat.
>>18254694
They are trying to modernize such a cut would be a disastrous setback to their national security goals which is the main purpose of Aramco.
Always remember these state-backed and state run companies are to be understood through the lenses of said states perceived interests.
>>18254804
>Seeking alpha account for newsletter
How does that work(asking as someone who has only ever read articles there)?
Would I have to apply or is this an anyone can write thing?

>>18236443
GUSH just screwed investors with a reverse split

Fuck off, shitskin scammer

What are your thoughts on SLB and BORR? I know BORR is heavily in debt after starting up a bunch of new drilling rigs, but I am unaware of what potential SLB has outside of the long term charts.

>>18255343
get a reddit or something faggot i will summon you with booty in other threads

>>18255343
Just register somewhere so we can have a daily discussion forum or smth similar about the markets

>>18239903
>runs over IED and detonates battery.

sure thing bub...

>>18255343
based anon. one of the best threads i've seen on biz for a whole

>>18255444
BORR has been losing money in probably one of the best markets for their product in my lifetime. I wouldn't touch them, I'm not even sure they survive.
With these types of companies its partially a function of their bonds desu. The healthier their bonds the less chance the companies go bust(simply because they can issue more debt and the market will buy them). BTW the reason XOM can afford to make absurd we won't cut spending plans for this crisis is b/c their bonds are so highly rated by credit agencies.
Oilfield service companies will obviously suffer shortterm due to customers suffering.
That being said SLB is a good company they are much more likely to survive although their cash flow and 2019 Q3 performance I'd have to look into more simply because its so strange. But they are unlikely to go bust even if times will be tough.
In terms of picking winners what I look for is what is this companies advantages over the competition and what are its disadvantages.
Classic example same industry(oil servicing) is HAL who also do refining. They are tanking right now and the bloggers seem bearish on them but they do have the advantage of 1) govt + military contacts 2) Military contracts which makes them interesting. Granted those contracts shrink greatly during the Obama and now Trump presidencies(mostly because both tried to pull us out/scale back our Iraq Afghanistan presence where they made the majority of said contracts).
That being said with Corona, if the military needs someone to fill in the gaps for a large scale deployment to fight the virus it will(at least speaking to family friends in the USMC) most likely be them if for no other reasons then connections. I don't believe they are a longterm hold due to foreign policy and political trends but thats another story.
The bloggers are bullish on Baker Hughes due to more cash reserves but both Baker Hughes and SLB will recover from this and are low risk for bankruptcy.

>>18235163
I mean, you have to be a moron if your'e not buying oil producers right now. Always long oil after a crisis.

>>18255444
>>18255809
As a personal note on oil servicing companies what I think is the X factor here for which service company will perform best is who can best integrate tech innovations into their product to help improve customer bottom line. Simply because efficiency enhancing tools is an attractive prospect in such a competitive space as oil((exploration is a risky business, any efficiency boost at any step of the process is a welcome one by drillers pipers and refiners). The problem is most tech lingo is kinda memey PR nonsense even when there exists a there there. I'd have to look at these companies specific products properly.

>>18250262
What tankers

WHAT TANKERS

>>18255938
this please

>>18235163
>trump says Google has a website to give information about Coronavirus
>they say they actually don’t
>people laugh at Trump 24 hours
>google comes back and says they’ll make the site ASAP

>Trump says Saudi speaking to Russia
>oil goes up on “lies”
>24 hours of Trump being made fun of
>you are here
>Saudis say on Friday or Saturday they decided to reduce production by amount Trump said
>Russians decided to agree on Monday so they can “win”
>oil 40 a barrel by Tuesday

This is how Trump wins baby

>>18256192
Based. Watch /leftypol/ seethe

>>18255473
I dislike reddit vehemently both as a website but also its management. Also I'm not an ass guy and if I'm being honest I don't appreciate brap posts(I know where we are so I'm not going to make a big deal out of it but it doesn't do anything for me).
>>18255519
Got a rundown for me of the options(as you sound more familiar with this then I).
>>18255938
As in Tanker companies or companies that own large tanker assets.
Specifically Tanker companies will do well in the short run(long run none of them are a hold when we reach stabilization).
Tanker companies will do better then Oil companies that own/operate/lease tankers(see Shell and Chevron) in this period simply because their only product will be killing it whereas Shell and Chevron merely get to use this to mitigate loss.
Think of it like this, anyone who is longing a futures contract for oil will need to store it somewhere, these companies are having an unprecedentedly amazing market from their perspective rn with extreme prices. They can always find someone to take the bet on oil. They will make their profits storing oil during this period zerohedge related:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Market-Chaos-Has-Created-The-Greatest-Trade-In-Decades.html
As for specific companies I'd have to look more into who owns what but FRO and TK would be some of the picks. Just remember to dump them before the crisis ends.

>>18256192
He’s a meme wizard.

>>18256192
cope

>>18256192
The type of cut we are talking about is the sort you'd have to start a war over.
Russia has a no-cuts policy, Saudi would agree to OPEC talks cuts that Russia walked form but those are nowhere near the right quantity for this shit.
I would've voted for Trump if I could legally in 2016, I voted republican in 2018(even if some parts of my ballot had no republican I wrote in), I will vote for him 2020 and try to convince those family members on the fence.
That said he can't get this concession out Putin or MBS. Neither can afford a cut that deep and Putin is opposed to cuts to begin with.

>>18252597

>What happens when storage is filled up?

I'm investing in tanker companies. Oil producers will pay a premium for tanker volume.

>>18235163
please, someone tell me if i'm right with that:

> oil prices dump so low only al sauds are still making money
> pressure on u.s. companies but more on russia, vuvuzela and iran
> china as one of the greatest net importers asks for less oil
> supply chains broken all over the world due to corona-chan so nobody currently needs more oil
> prices are fucked, opec/opec+ nonfunctioning currently, enormous decline in demand and saudis still selling and producing more and more to compensate the low prices
> huthis (aliases) started to fire rockets on the saudis' oil pumps and pipelines
the day will come iran has to stop the saudis from supressing the prices. iran cannot survive without exporting oil. and for the next months the demand will be low globally but at the time saudis need to sell more barrels for less dollar per barrel and now comes the fed and inflates the dollar. do you see the pressure points here? iran cannot wait. they lost. this weakens russia and china.

Tankers, eh?

Like... Out on the ocean?

Isn't hurricane season about to start?

>>18250811
Lol I bought some today.

>>18256338
You are correct with the Iran thing(as it relates to internal pressures) they are in desperate trouble as is Iraq rn.
They could also leverage the Saudi Shiite population, this could all escalate into war.
If this continues long enough this is all a possibility. The secondary factor is the odds Iran puts on America defending Saudi or Israel defending Saudi.
The Chinese actually benefit cheap oil and struggling industry is a great time for them to invest with their unlimited assets in expanding a foothold.
They've been trying to figure out how to pump fire ice natural gas from the South China sea for example(and oil drilling in the conventional sense has been a long term goal of the party to secure its position, or at least some form of securing the oil supply) and anyways equipment + expertise will be on discount for the forseeable future.
Also due to Corona infections the two US carrier groups have had to withdraw from the South China sea temporarily.
That is a huge win for Beijing they now have a free hand there for the first time ever.
Russia has the money to survive this and comes out fine even stronger depending on who gets destroyed by this crisis.
The Dollar is actually doing fine rn due to other countries needing it so desperately due to the crisis.
If we get full on mid-east escalation and America chooses to either stay out or try and cause an Iran Iraq type stalemate for profit China is most fucked by that.
Thusfar as a relative matter China has actually manage to use this crisis to improve its position if any of this holds long term depends on how America reacts post crisis.
If Biden wins btw he is a China shill.
Just another reason to vote Trump 2020 desu.
He will bring down the hammer 2nd term.

Ill chime in my fear with this. I bought a ton of FRO this week, calls and stock. My only problem is our country has to know this. Is this where we say, f it and go to war with Iran? If we are realisticly out of options and we know we are going to really screw up our oils, what else can be done? I can't think Saudi didn't clue us in somewhat on them pumping. This could not have just come from no where. Again, I'm fully loaded because the writing has been on the wall for awhile but usually that means I'm missing something

>>18256578
I bought a long call on xom after hours, should I wait for the open or just let it queue?

>>18255917
>>18255809
Hmm, thanks for your outlook. I sold all of my BORR today on the trump news spike, and will consider other companies since they cant seem to run a profit, and prior to this they weren't expected to run a profit until 2022.
Yeah makes sense. In the coming times the companies that can make the most from the least will have the best position when things rebound.

>>18256643
Iran doesn't produce enough crude to make up the demand destruction.
USMC specifically navy currently has a Corona problem we would not risk our assets.
Bombing them is a possibility always.
War is not happening.
We could easily save our oil buy tariffing oil produced outside America(all of it) or outside NA(all of it) to a floor price.

My personal 2 cents is I think the Saudi's actually colluded with the Russians here to take advantage of the demand destruction to drive out their competition.
Washington would not have approved this oil war, oil geopolitics to aside for one moment the effect it had in wrecking US markets alone during the beginning of this crisis is enough to guarantee Trump wouldn't have approved this in advance(as everyone is aware that is a major risk to an already volatile market, and Trump does love his stock market). Mind you its trigger was supposedly Russia walking out of OPEC production rate talks(which triggers an immediate reaction that is how mafia works to use the popular meme).
I understand your unease but I think for this specific issue it is unwarranted. Iran is about the size of Iraq or Kuwait in terms of barrels a day, this still won't fix(unless general war breaks out) the supply demand issue.
>>18256789
Long call what expiration?
Also I think XOM even if the rally continues to Monday doesn't have much further up to go rn(outside of clowncar hype nonsense).
No tariff it will still suffer as oil prices collapse.
Yes tariff you gotta remember most of its production is outside the US and outside NA.

>tfw investing in both oil and cobalt/nickel mining

>>18256887
Jan of 2022. The longest call, from your other thread earlier

>>18256887
Oilanon if you could build a portfolio of oil assets for 4k what would place yours bets on?
Few super majors maybe 2 or 3, a refinery, a oil servicer or two, a natural gas company like OKE, and shale company?

Also any other mineral or other industry experts feel free to throw in their hat for a growth/dividend portfolio. Hopefully, trying to leave my masters program with some extra money from my 4.3k savings.

>>18256954
Depending on how much you paid for it and the strike price you probably make a lot of money. But the risk varies(and reward is less then it would be at a lower U/L) from that you could probably sell for profit now so that is important(worst comes to worst buy back in when XOM goes down again, considering the timeframe this is probably a good idea).
Its a question of opportunity cost.
What is your strike ask price paid(by you) and bid price of the position at time of market close today?
>>18256978
Depends give me timeframe give risk tolerance(options no options if options how much) give me roughly what percent you want to be long term holds for divis and what % you want to invest in for growth and what % you would be happy with a large flip within the 8 months to 3 years timeframe.
I'd add a tanker and maybe a pipeline company to that list with a caveat that super majors vs shale % of portfolio is a function of Trumps decision on whether to protect American oil or to let it die.
What are you studying fren'?

>>18235163
>buying oil after trumps pump n dump tweet

>>18256978
I made a killing off of OKE and PAA in 08'
I recently bought oke at $12 and sold at 21$ I'd love to get back in that low again

>>18256578
thank you for your reply. interesting too.

>>18257122
It was 2.55 a contract. Bid for 2.25 ask at 2.55

>>18257122
For the most part I intend to long most of the positions that I get (I'm 23) so I probably would do 45% divid, 30% growth, and the remaining 25% would be for a flip.

My risk tolerance I would say is normal too high for example if it looks OXY would survive I would throw money into. Also I've never done options before but wouldn't mind holding options probably 5-8% of the 20% if possible.

I am about to finish a Masters program in international relations with a focus on national security which hopefully means that I can find a job if Corona doesn't get me as I got to go back to LA by the end of july from the midwest.

Thanks for the responses and how about you? What are you trying to study?

>>18257160
Kek keep these coming always makes me laugh

>>18257272
Strike price is what?
Also:
>2.55
So it hasn't moved since you bought in?

>>18257473
Nah. Never traded the options before, figured I'd give it a whirl after fact checking. Your memetext is me irl. Its queued up to go through on market open but I can still cancel it overnight. Not really sure if I should or not though. Strike should just be 60 right?

>>18257160
I bought before that tweet though, checkmate retard.

>>18253674
march 18 wasn't the low?

>>18257473
Thinking about buying STNG, maybe buying calls that will expire in January of the next year. Thoughts on this?

>>18236428
KOS is really promising

>>18257323
45% divi:
CVX
RDS.B for majors.
OKE is also an attractive pick for dividends from natgas.
OXY is a longterm bet on them recovering if you go down this route vote Icahn come the shareholder revolution to oust Buffet influence. Turnaround assuming good management is at least 40 more longterm 60-80. There target price for going for me is $5 with a recently cut dividend(a good thing for the companies long term survival) that was historically 0.79 a quarter(now 0.11).
Growth would be for longterm a shale company or two if Trump saves shale. I like EOG as my safest shale pick but I think that PXD could also easily outperform(and are also safe for growth).

Flip is Tankers:
FRO and TKA seem like a good bet. TKA would be higher risk due to be in worse shape but also higher reward due to them having more growth potential when SHTF(wall street was not expecting them to make money pre-crisis).
KMI is a healthy pick PAA is getting some bad press from bloggers rn and I'd have to defer to >>18257164
if he's got more info on them(but they seem good to me).
As for refining I'd have to get back to you.
Options briefly:
1) getting the timeframe correctly
2) correct entrance price for strike price 3) Willingness to see big red numbers knowing they will go away. Your total risk in an option long position is your premium which you pay upfront, your potential payout is the price you pull out - the price you paid for 100 shares so all these numbers time 100.
You would be longing an option for this specifically a call for going up(put is going down).
Profit at expiration is U/L(underlying stock price) - strike price(if negative becomes worthless) if call strike price - U/L if put multiply both by 100 and subtract your premium.
>National Security
Foggy Bottom or the Pentagon?
Studying CS and Math in Israel(undergrad) but currently in home with my parents in the NorthEast.

>>18257562
Strike of 60 for XOM assumes they will recover to precrisis levels. Profit for it would be ((U/L-60)-premium)*100 shares * number of contracts.
Potential loss is your entire premium.
NOTE this would be longing a call option(not shorting).
Options only trade during 9:30-4:00(4:15 if on the DOW or S&P and also for NASDAQ but don't quote me on that).
I think there are better bets then XOM for two years at 2.55 premium.
Wait for storage apocalypse to buy your positions(as the further out of the money the cheaper they are to attain) on Crude producers.
Your breakeven would be 62.55 U/L at expiration.
>>18257812
We will have a bigger one when storage falls off a cliff rn we have a dead cat bounce.
>>18257821
I think that is a good Tanker flip.
>>18258092
Assuming they rebound and manage to return to current dividend by the time crisis ends that is a solid and respectable play.

>>18258133
A lot more pipelines would fail before Plains. PAA is on my list to own.

As for shippers, maybe someone has more info but I'd stay clear from DHT if ur gonna take the risk, go for it. DHT is safer because they hedged like half there ships at a lower price. My rule is you play shippers for complete risk on, don't hold back. Im sure if ur an old timer you remember DRYS in 07-08'

>>18258320
So I am thinking of buying STNG calls at the $30.00 strike price with an expiration date of January 21st of 2021. Any idea of where STNG could go?

>>18258133
Thanks for the tips. It depends I was planning on applying to both government and non government geospatial intelligence positions so that can get me in DC or possibly in Virginia.

>>18258331
If you'd want the higher risk wouldn't it be TK(considering how they have under performed in the last few years but have such a massive fleet and enough money to get through the next few months, then again much of their fleet is LNG carriers).
I'm not an old timer only 19 turning 20 this year.
What would you think is the go big go home plays fren'? Would it be FRO or some Greek company like DRYS or would it be TK due to the reasons mentioned above?
>>18258444
They have a massive fleet of 126 ships.
Assuming they recognize this opportunity and take it shit I don't honestly know. They will easily top 30.00 in that time period after armaggedon if they start leasing storage space to oil traders(why wouldn't they its great profits for them).

>>18258133
>Studying CS and Math in Israel

>>18258713
Thanks lad. Hoping to buy some of these calls in the following two weeks. Now let me ask you one last thing. I want to buy either calls or puts on Exxon Mobil tomorrow. Do you think it will be more likely to fall or go up tomorrow? It would be just one day calls or puts; straight YOLO options

>>18258498
I mean in terms of whats your general foreign policy framework? To what end do you analyze(even if a good analyst borrows tools from all to that end)? Better question who are the two-three geopolitical firms/think thanks you think are probably the most solid?
>Geospatial intelligence
Based.
>>18258721
Accurate.

>>18258801
Expires tomorrow options I honestly can't tell with the clown market. It will be incumbent on the Trump summit and I don't know if I can predict that or how the market will read that in a one day timeframe(it might read a down signal as an up on the actual day of). You probs safest doing a straggle at open price round down for put(out of the money) and open price round up for call(out of the money).

>>18258886
Thanks for all the info Oilanon. I will see how the market is feeling at the open and do the exact opposite. I will be praying for your success in all future ventures.

>>18258836
My general foreign policy framework from the courses I've taken is based on national security against both conventional threats (Russia, China), hybrid threats (Iran) and irregular threats (aka muh terrrorism Al-Bigdadi and non-state actors like narco groups).

Despite it being a "IR" major there were barely any courses on diplomatic state craft rather it was all more geared towards IR theory and then how do we win a war or counter the new terrorsit threat.

>Depends on the position most seem to want you to have an ability to use open source data and data gathered from their own sources mostly like one of the myriads of alphabet soup organizations.
> For Geospatial intelligence usually its gonna be the NRO (Government) and MAXR (Private) that are the top dogs.
>For think tanks it also depends too usually RAND is viewed as the hallmark of greatness since it is the granddaddy of think tanks and to even apply for a research/policy position you have to have a graduate degree. Another one is Center for Strategic and International Studies for global security policy which takes undergrads and has a wide variety of centers.

>Personally I can't do academic research and journals because I find that line of work boring.
I previously interned with an embassy in my undergrad and was thinking about applying to the State department but from what I hear its a shitshow and living on a civil servants salary now is hard given the fact that we might be yeeting our selves into a great depression 2.0.

>I've also looked around but haven't applied anywhere yet because honestly I need a break as I am basically doing a 5 year program because I did my accelerated masters right after I graduated undegrad from last year and am feeling burnout which is further compound by the shitshow and lifetime opportunity that is this market.

>>18258886
Its funny because like you I was able to pull out of the market before the plunge because I realized something was amiss with China when I used open source weather monitoring data and saw a massive drop in their CO2 in the period when they were downplaying the virus.

The CCP's survival is tied to the economy and reclaiming Taiwan. If the economy goes they are going to have go all in on Taiwan which means a war with the US which the CCP wants to avoid. Thus they will do whatever it takes to prevent a chinese economic collapse and even when those measures didn't work they had to shutdown the economy.

>>18259061
Which meant that this was serious because the CCP in its history has never shutdown the economy. Its funny because I also warned my friends and family about this and they didn't believe me till the collapse and shutdown of the country which was something bittersweet. Bittersweet in the fact that I was right but also afraid to be right.

>>18259061
Why do you think the CCP needs Taiwan that badly? Does it warrant a war with the U.S.?

>>18259142
Three reason:
>First, Taiwan is the perfect staging ground for an invasion of china if you can knockout their coastal and air defense you can get on the shore of china within a day and avoid going to the more northern and mountainous terrain.
> Second, the CCP has deflected discontent and uprising by the Chinese people through 3 means: Violence, Silence, and nationalism. Often they use these three types of tools in unison and as a result it could have negative conesequences especially given how the CCP has consistently used nationalism for a rally around the flag effect.
>In fact it has almost caused their downfall as the Chinese people have been stroked into a fever in the past where they wanted to go to war against the US. It was releated to our fleet maneuvers in the south china sea when we crossed an area that the CCP claimed was theirs and that no foreign ship could enter without their permission. Our task force went through the area without any permission and no issues which was a big FU to Beijing. This outraged the Chinese public who called the admirals cowards and said that they should have attacked the US, it got so bad that the CCP had to shut down the internet and off people for calling them cowards.
> Third, as long as Taiwan is independent and is able to basically tell the CCP to fuck off, it will continue to inspire and enflame other Chinese secessionist movements as seen in Hong Kong and Xinjiang which directly threatens the hegemony of "CCP control".

>>18258975
>Academic research and journals are boring
Based
>Can't find a job
Not making any promises yet but I be hiring in a few years for IR people.
My basic plan with my degree was:
>Find some startup to try and help flip
>Use that money to have fuck you money to build what I actually want to build in the defense industry
>The two things I need for that are money and math
Thus CS was the fastest route to said goal.
Although my basic policy on the degree itself is it tells me nothing outside that the person minmaxed a uni path correctly.
>>18259061
I didn't have money in at the time dad did he only listened at DOW 27k but thats better then nothing.
The thing that tipped me off was when they started quarantining whole provinces.
>Taiwan China issue
First island chain is where we break them.
Their navy is still incapable of defending any of their interests sufficient that we can start making large demands after Trump gets reelected(and the British trade deal gets finalized).
>>18259079
Nation state version of Enron.overleveraged.
This reminds me of the Nazi's having to move up war plans because they kept running low on Gold and worrying their economy would collapse before they could make their play.
>>18259142
Imagine a massive unsinkable aircraft carrier that can hit any naval asset you deploy therefore boxing you in strategically on a permanent basis. That is Taiwan to China.
The navy is necessary to secure national commercial and imperial interest.
If China fails to take Taiwan they will never be a viable power able to genuinely challenge the US and its hegemony(which originates in total naval dominance).

>>18259271
>>18259277
Thanks for the info lads. Fuck China, I hope Taiwan stays strong and gets through all this ok. I wouldn't mind seeing China getting its ass handed to it, but I don't see that happening just yet.

>>18259271
China is an inherently unstable country.
It is only stable when times are good and the central government is powerful.
I think you are looking at this wrong, I don't think the CCP worries about the US invading the Chinese mainland Japan style(A resurgent Japan might consider it if China begins to fall apart again). I think they worry about the US going in like the Brits during the Opium wars and enforcing demands with their navy(which began the chain reaction that brought down the Qing might I remind).

The secessionist point and anti-CCP point is spot on as Taiwan is a symbol. The out of control nationalism is kinda overhyped(not because its not a problem and not because it doesn't effect the CCP) simply because this would be so overwhelmingly in the interest of China and the CCP even without the hyper-nationalism.
>>18259321
Taiwan has been doing rather well with this virus, they've actually done a better job containing it then the overwhelming majority of countries.

>>18250262
Good thread

>>18259277
Thats extremely smart especially if you work on a start up for cybersecurity because that shit will make money given how Russia, the USA, and China are fighting each other through this new domain of warfare.


Also your right with China there navy for now can't compete with the use thats why they developed the most sophisticated area denial systems that have begun to envelop taiwan. A big concern however, is that china doesn't want to military invade taiwan unless it has too because it will be a blood bath. But rather a concerning development is that they further spread out this area denial system through their artificial islands which in turn basically can result in an embargo of goods and supplies to taiwan like we did with cuba.

>>18259277
>>18259321
>>18259382
Also don't forget Taiwan is a key lynchpin in our security commitments to Japan and South Korea. None of these states are actually in a formal alliance as like good asians they hate each others guts, rather they trust the US to defend them in exchange for not building up their militaries to counter china and in exchange for some intercooperation. If the US fails to maintain Taiwan's independence, which we have in a formal treaty, that sends a message to South Korea and Japan that we are unreliable in our commitment meaning that in the face of an expanding China they would need to rearm and grow their forces which further destabilize the region, especially Japan. Because if Japan remilitarizes they will try to develop their own nuclear program, and trust me no one in Asia wants a remilitarized nuclear japan given the shit that they pulled during WW2 because that would guarantee an automatic pacific war.

>>18259382
In regards to the invasion point from a standard military perspective its the perfect place to launch an invasion if you dont have a land border. But i do agree with you and don't think its the fear of a US staging ground, I am just saying that strategically speaking if you wanted to invade china and didn't want to die in the cold Korean mountains taiwan is the place you want to be.

>>18259520
We need to get rid of those fucking islands and as a side note this corona shit has given them a free hand.
I actually have what I think is a pretty great idea for cyber(it would also include other defense assets) but I'm waiting again until after I make my money from startups to enter it begin building it.
I've come to the conclusion that shareholders are the problem for any company trying to address the China issue. Without them as a constraining force, well not the right place to discuss.
>>18259529
I am actually for a re militarized Japan my dude. They already have the best navy of any Pacific nation(outside the USA).
The global naval guarantee is outdated now that 1) There is no more USSR 2) We no longer need foreign oil.
We have no reason to help secure Chinese commercial interests/national security interests with our navy. That alone forces them to try and secure said interests with a navy to inadequate to meet said obligations across routes filled with their enemies who would have homefield or tech/specialty advantage. We need to draw them into a battlespace they have no chance of winning that means away from their area denial systems.

Granted that could only happen after we ensure our trade partners are secure to minimize the hit to us economically.(Muh trade war is also good for preparing companies)
>>18259587
This is relevant to Japan or a Nationalist attempt at reconquest. Japan would need a massive demographic turnaround first, Taiwan might manage if China descends into civil war again.

>>18259659
For cyber be careful who you talk to when you are back in Israel, keep your cards close to your heart because you don't want anyone from Unit 8200 catching wind of it and developing it before you can get your money and effort on it.

Also I agree with you on the Japan issue, one theory or rather discussion that I have had with the Program director who is a presidential policy expert is that basically path dependency has taken over US presidential foreign and civil policy meaning that the most practical or necessary policies could be effectively blocked out due to the previous actions of an institutions predecessors and organization which prevents them the flexibility to enact their own real policies hence why there was so much pushback by supposedly non-partisan civil servants when Trump tried to pivot full force early in his term.

As a side note being the quality of Chinese equipment failures during a live conflict would be hilarious given how crappy their production and quality control methods especially steel.

>>18259659
Also I agree with you on the point of shareholder addiction to china. Personally I believe it was stupid for people to still trust and continuously investing in a regime that seeks to dethrone the US and would have no issue confiscating their factories when push came to shove like what they did to our medical supplies during the crisis.

I hope that the US becomes more supportive of autarky at the very least in some certain crucial industries like medicine which if I remember correctly 93% of it was made in china directly while 80% of the raw ingredients were produced their as well.

>>18236388
He got a money implant and a hair implant

>>18259750
>Be careful who you talk to
Generally people are either China shills China skeptical/anti China or don't care just agree types. Although most of my peers at least vaguely know of my political positions being right wing.
I wouldn't actually mention my actual plans to anyone I didn't already think would be onboard and even then only if I thought I could recruit them. The less people know the better and the less details are known other then national security the better.
>Institutional path dependency
We have had this problem for decades but it really began to worsen when the cold war ended. To be fair we had no real foreign policy for the day after and Bush Sr. was voted out so we still have not gotten a real foreign policy update since the end of the Cold War for what we do not that the USSR is gone.
>Chinese quality
Depends for what they are really good at stealing deconstructing and reconstructing our tech. The steel quality thing makes me think of that one anon with the don't learn Mandarin stories.
>>18259772
The medicine issue is entirely one of Chinese subsidies we actually have a competitive advantage(if the Chinese didn't subsidize it so heavily) in petrochems(raw material) and knowhow and quality drug creation and also in generics(mostly due to raw materials).
No one ever learns the China lesson. My problem with TSLA is that regardless of how hard he sucks Xi's dick regardless of how many cars they sell in the next 5-10 years there eventually the Chinese throw them out of market through unfair practices so that the Chinese electric car companies(built of stolen TSLA tech of course) can start conquering the world.
Its short sighted as all hell we never learn.
Shareholders just get in the way.
As a side note that is my prediction for TSLA, I don't know if they become the worlds largest car company or whatever, but they likely keep the hype train do very well up until China forces them out of the China market and bankrupts them with their own tech.

>>18259883
Obviously when you do business with China its never for ever, like some of these business "entrepreneurs" think it is just till they can successfully copy and mass produce your technology. China's strength in not in "innovation" but its ability to reverse engineer a crappy and cheaper model that they can flood the market with till you are priced out. I'm worried now because in 2021 Chinese cars were supposed to start coming to the US markets supposedly.

Also the amount of china shills in the world amazes me, in part this is probably related to the soft power that they exert through our "Western" companies for example Epic games or Disney. Hell look at this whole corona debacle in which they are trying to portray themselves as the hero despite being the arsonist who lit the fire through their own egos and incompetence.

I did a bit of research into VLCCs. It seems that the sudden price spike was temporary, likely due to the Saudis leasing dozens of these tankers, and the contracts did not lock in these rates for the most part. Also VLCCs make profits based on volume * distance, so them being used as improvised storage is not as profitable as operating in an economy with high demand. The speculative bet on tankers would only pay off if both demand remains low and supply continues to glut for the next 3 months at least. And until then, there is still dry storage left that will be used up before the demand for these tankers go up if they do.
Not saying that isn't impossible, but it's not a guaranteed bet. That's why these companies' stocks have not really priced this in. Because it's not as lucrative as it is at first glance.

>>18260086
>Chinese cars
Not if Trump wins reelection.
Also the China shills is a function of elite capture, long term propaganda pushes and ideological subversion USSR style. Bezmonov was right about these damn reds.
In silicon valley specifically they don't really believe in much less understand Geopolitics they think their technology will solve everything somehow. The muh techno utopia meme annoys me to no end.
The western companies thing again doesn't suprise me, shareholders.

>>18258444
You buying tomorrow? Or when?

>>18260151
I agree with you that until we run out of dry land storage they won't be priced in but my thesis is bar bombing the oilfields there is no stopping us running out of dry land storage.
The math is inevitable here.
We won't get some miracle cure.
And the problem is the faster the market realizes the inevitability of it the more likely we are to see it be preemptively priced in.
Did you find anything about smaller ships? I've been trying to find if their prices are basically the same(for each unit of volume) or if one has a premium.

>>18260195
What do you think happened to Bezmonov? He is an interesting guy to watch and honestly its scary how true his statements were. Looks like the reds did win in the end.

>>18260247
What is your favorite oil storage stock ticker right now OilAnon

>>18260247
I focused on VLCCs, and this research was just autistic Googling + my old friends in the midstream and upstream O&G industry. Apparently, some hedge funds actually had this very idea a few weeks ago and helped drive up the price of VLCCs because they like to store the crude themselves and profit directly from contango. It's why I feel like there's something we are missing if these hedge funds see the opportunity but don't pursue it with equity. I'm not sure either way.

>>18260258
I think the pressure got to him.
Always a chance they killed him but I think we underestimate the slowburn of insanity and one mistake away from heart attack living that kind of life does to a man.
>>18260275
It depends I need to know more about the industry:
On one hand:
>TK is undervalued due to poor performance and if they realize the Charter opportunity they will skyrocket, would probs be TNK version specifically
>On the other hand they are split into three separate parts managing different assets most of their overall assets are LNG storage.
>FRO has a massive fleet of pure crude tankers so they are a seriously solid pick.
As the previous anon mention DHT is also soild for this.
>STNG has a lot of space with their massive fleet of medium sized only problem is confirming that storage price is by volume.
>Euronav is massive(largest player here) and a great safe bet
>ISNW is also really golden for this(2nd biggest after Euronav)
Part of me thinks pick a greek b/c of the DRYS debacle.(can the U/L go over $1 billion USD)
But then that is wishful thinking.
But then EuroNav(our greek friends) are an actually legitimate company led by people who are not frauds.
An interesting greek one would be the extremely tiny Pyxis(for retarded go big or go home price inflation) but then their fleet might be two small for super gainz.
I'm still mulling this over.
>>18260305
Long term these stock will all collapse meaning the goal is not to sell at a high we have no fucking clue what that is.
The goal is to bet see them go up and set a limit where we just get out with great margins.
Tanker companies stocks tend to be a poor long term investment. I'd imagine they go in with equity when they believe storage capacity overload is guranteed. RN they are just trying to profit of Contango.

>>18240600
XLE still good to bet on?

>>18235880

You sir are right.
Im also heavy into Shell.
I think the demand afterwards will skyrocket because right now healthy oil companies get separated from sick oil companies.
And in addition to that Production will get reduced because the demand today is shrinking. I think we will see oil prices plumbing in short term but if europe and america removes lockdown we will have the most prosperous time in history.
Also Dow at 50k in the next economical cycle.

>>18236767
You sir are a huge Pussy and should go to reddit and not stay in an early smart money level of investing.
Go to r/funny or something.


But i think tesla will stay for a long long time.
Imho oil will stay like another 100yrs before electricity or something else replace it.

im working in a shipping company myself, rates are dying, ports are closing, i honestly dont understand why are tanker companies tanking

>>18240064
FUUUUUUU
MY SHELL BAGS ARE DUMPING

>>18235163
You're buying a dead-cat. If you don't sell for Asian crypto projects like ARPA, you literally are never going to make it.

>>18262211
>shitcoin

>>18239903
Even this edit can’t make this look cool