/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18117739
all depends on how long lockdown lasts. if new york and california aren't up and running in 2-3 weeks, seems like this will be a huge problem.

It would be unprecedented for an event like this to happen and the markets make a v-shaped recovery.

We could be in a bear market for another year and a half, but I agree, no depression.

>>18117841
>huge problem
it's already a huge problem, but I do have to agree with OP on this one. So much would have to go wrong in order for their to be a complete depression.

>>18117739
Its not about the flu.

>>18117841
the virus could disappear and everyone could go back to work tomorrow and we are still one month into the greatest depression the US has ever seen.

all financial markets are in a massive bubble since the 90s.
we were due for extremely high unemployment rates any second now and the virus merely set of the dominos.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

>>18117841
A depression has an L shaped recovery, coronavirus will not have an L shaped recovery, we don't have a problem with not enough jobs or a war or anything like that. It's literally a virus, the W shaped recovery will happen, the amount of autistic fear mongering in this board is retarded. Gilead sciences are already in their 3rd stage clinical trial, results are coming out for the drug next month in April.

Secondly the spanish flu had lasted years and infected 27% of the world population with a 1.7% death rate, much worse than corona and they had a W shaped recovery.

Basically there is no depression, there will be no depression. Expect a W shaped recovery curve.

>>18117929
you need to look at a few more charts kid.

>>18117891
Like an oil pricing war? Like over-leveraged companies that are on the verge of defaulting? The ones that don't default get derated to junk credit? Like a massive injection of high-velocity consumer side currency to mitigate the substantial economic distress that the CoV response has eked out? How about the precedent set by the Fed's buyup or cutting the cash backing required by the Fed? How about crumbling consumer credit that pushes us to pop another bubble like housing or automotive loans? Just gonna have a repo continuum? Gonna have Jerome pump lifejuice into the ass of every rightfully failing company for the rest of eternity?

>>18117739
based retard

>>18117739

>>18117929
>we don't have a problem with not enough jobs
i appreciate your response. very informative, but didn't 3.8 million people just file for unemployment?

>>18117739
There was a gigant debt bubble back in 1918 also?

>>18117739
why haven't we had a recession in 12 years
why haven't we had a recession in 12 years
why haven't we had a recession in 12 years

>>18117918
https://necsi.edu/the-stock-market-has-grown-unstable-since-february-2018?rq=stock%20market

>>18118020
They filed for unemployment due to the fucking virus, if they filed for unemployment because of something like a company going broke or whatever then that would mean something else.

A virus is a complete different ballgame

>>18118020
yes which is 2.375% of the workforce. if you refer to my chart i posted earlier, youll see that we are right on track for a huge spike in unemployment. Best case scenario the virus goes away and some people get back to work, while the velocity of money is slowing way down and employers are now to broke to pay for all their employees so layoffs start happening like crazy.

>>18118048
W.A.K.E U.P!

>>18117929
Nigga, if this shutdown lasts for more than few weeks, people are going to be foreclosed, almost all small businesses are going to be shut down, and the economy is going to be completely fucked when you add several million more permanently unemployed people. Bailouts to corporations are not going to fix that, and really, nothing will.

>>18117999
Checked.
This isn't about a virus. This crash has been coming at us, no matter what we did. We will try to print ourselves out of this, and the Federal Reserve will end up owning a lot of assets after this is all said and done. This is an unprecedented move, and to assume this is just another crash is retarded.
We never solved the 2008 Crash, we just artificially pumped the economy to life by pumping credit to every sector of the economy. We will try to do the same, and we'll see how much longer we can kick the can down the road before we get hyperinflation.

>>18117841
Cuckifornians dying sounds like a miracle.

>>18117739
Imagine thinking this crash was caused by the Coronavirus, not the $275 Trillion debt bubble. We've entered into prolonged depression which either a revolution or world war will stabilize.

>>18117739
the economy was already starting to crack before the virus showed up. this is the pin that popped the bubble. they haven't fixed a damn thing since 2008 and the problem is so massive that the only way out is a massive reset which will destroy everything to make way for a new financial order.

>>18118020
>>18118060
thanks. decent takes here

>>18118100
not when your marvel movies stop getting made

>>18118048
When a third of the country's one pay check from insolvency it doesn't matter what reason they lost their job

>>18118091
How old and/or stupid are you?

Every bank im aware of is cutting deals with debtors who are expericing financial difficulties due to the economic shutdown. People arent getting foreclosed on because they lost income due to CoronaAids.

The economy will pick up where it left off after this is over and there will be trillions of additional dollars in circulation.

Bull markets impending...

>>18117929
Spanish flu is incomparable, it's a dogshit model. It's like comparing an Atari to a modern computer.

Planes, trains, automobiles, have all advanced tenfold since then. In 1918 they had a little blue book with written directions to drive cross country in Model T's with dogshit tires and range. Modern rail takes 3 days, imagine how long it took them to dump water into the tanks and hand shovel coal into the wagon. You can hop across two or three continents today in that amount of time.

Population was also about 25% and you can imagine it was far more dispersed than it is today, everywhere, too.

Also WWI.

>>18117739
It won't necessarily lead to a depression. But of course it COULD. I agree that the map you posted will be similar to our situation with COVID-19, though, in all likelihood.

>>18117841
Only a complete idiot would think that it takes only 2-3 weeks for this to be over (not you, I hope?). This will last monthS. People who are working from home - most of them won’t have anything to work for very soon. What are you selling/promoting/fixing when EVERYONE’s at home and out of money? This shit is going to start a major revolution, 100%. We enjoyed a very good time in economy for the past 3-4-5 years but this was all smoke and mirrors. There was a huge bubble about to bust and this virus made things 10x worse. The end is literally near. This will undoubtedly be bigger than 2008. If you don’t have a gun, I advise you to get one NOW.

>>18117929
This. Also, it's not 1918 anymore. We have way better water systems and sanitation. This was the main factor behind the sharp reduction of deadly diseases in the 20th century. This is what will prevent coronavirus from coming back again like the Spanish Flu did.

>>18118199
>>>/pol/

>>18118210
But (((CNN))) told me it will mutate

>>18118171
>>18118210

The spread of Spanish flu was worsened by the war, people were constantly travelling and living in cramped conditions and the poor nutrition of soldiers lead to weaker immune systems.

For corona we already have a drug in phase 3 clinical trials, only reason corona is dangerous is due to no human having immunity to it previously.

>>18118244

>>18118343
Cope, you're just a faggot bear.

>>18117739
Gregory Mannarino disagrees.
https://youtu.be/FPdtjhEyroU?t=527

TL;DW: The fundamentals are not sound and we still have Obama's bubble to unwind.

>>18118248
Yeah disagree, but you can push your narrative.

>>18118548
There was no bs there, I literally study biology at university, you're delusional if you think corona was anywhere near as spanish flu.

>>18118593
There’s no need for Spanish Flu 2.0 for today’s economy to crash, dummy.

>>18118374
I fucking hope so, I wanna wipe boomers of all their money and snag cheapies

>>18117739
>Currently we are at the phase of the deadcat bounce, expect there to be a drop. But not a fucking depression.

lmao you're already rationalizing the imminent losses
if trillions can't shoot DOW back to 30k that's a very bad sign, this plane is crashing

>>18118619
Agreed to an extent, yes the economy was going to get fucked over eventually due to the corporate bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, but the recent losses we had were mainly due to corona. These recent losses will have a W shaped recovery, in the future yes there will be a crash and POSSIBLY a depression.

But our current now problems are corona ones

>>18118698
Ignorance truly is, bliss.

>>18117739
Good thing there was nothing else going on in 1918

There's literally nothing bad happening right now. You're all delusional

>>18117929
So the question is will the W recovery be a higher low on the second V that is formed or a lower low. Its hard to believe a lower one after Black Thursday was savage as fuck

>>18117739
look faggot it’s obvious your not even 13 yrs old and it’s babies 1st crash
80% of the global economy has been frozen .
what do you think is going to happen
you stupid fucking faggot
Mommy says she needs her PC back and it’s bedside bye times

>>18118048
Companies ARE going broke. Wake the fuck up!

Crash started before anything happened in the US significant Coronavirus wise.

The depression isn't coronavirus caused, it's been a longtime coming.

>>18117841
Good luck it's gonna be months

The vultures circle around the carcass, arguing over who's going to pick away at the last bones.
Shameful to the very end.

>>18117739
The very little tiny difference is that we already were up to a recession because this whole system was blown up to ridicolous levels, and the meme bat virus is just the catalyst to start this shitshow.

>>18117929
Thanks anon, this board is just pure fear spreading for the moment and just relaying article from CNN and buzzfeed without thinking about it. For a second I saw this board glowing, could be just me.

>>18118109

I'm thinking both. Capitalistfags will try to keep the old system alive. The millions of unemployed will demand something new. I was 1099, barely scraping by and about to do something new. Now I'm voting for socialism because no job, no unemployment bennies. Am I just supposed to die? nah senpai.

>>18117739
A literal hundred-year-old example. Yeah absolutely nothing has changed since then, you dumb motherfucker

>>18118166
don't reproduce

>>18118109

>Imagine thinking this crash was caused by the Coronavirus, not the $275 Trillion debt bubble

The bubble was pricked by coronavirus. Something else would have eventually pricked it. OP is naive, we're fucked.

>>18119563
It's the closest thing we have to a pandemic similar to this you fucktard, people have been using examples of the US great depression and that's near 100 years old and you had no trouble accepting it. Admit you're a filthy short selling bear trader who is regretting his decision.

Just like cucks get fucked over by the bull. Let the bulls here handle everything faggot

>>18117910
This. Flu is a red herring

Tachyon is actually capable of transmitting faster in all network areas both centralized and complexed network environment

>>18119475
Companies are going broke because no one is working you fuck.

Here's what's going to happen.

The virus shit will end, stocks will go up firstly, then the employment rate will go up - not to pre-corona levels, but you get the gist. Employment rate is a lagging indicator of recovery, ok now that the jobs are back the stocks are getting strong. More investments, the employment rate will raise steadily.

A few small SHIT businesses will go broke, but that'll leave a gap in the market which is going to be filled by with new businesses.

There is going to be no fucking great depression, you're forgetting that some of the causes of the great depression were from the public buying shit on credit all the time as well as construction work and automobile production slowing down, we're seeing this shit right now because of corona.

Secondly excessive speculation was a cause of the great depression. Get your fear mongering head out of your ass.

>>18120080
Companies are going broke because they are over-leveraged in order to buy back stocks. They didn't set aside cash for a rainy day now they can't afford rent and to service their debt.

>>18120080
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fallen-angel-avalanche-arrives-sp-downgrading-companies-fastest-pace-record

Don't ignore the debt bubble.

>>18120126
Well yes I'm aware of the debt bubble which we had, but needless to say we will not be going through a retarded depression phase. The great depression had people using credit to buy everything as well as a fuck tonne of other factors.

Corona has for sure worsened the economy and weakened it, but not to the extent of a depression and again. Stocks should be back up as soon as this ends.

Guaranteed op is a teenager and Jewish

>>18120194
>The great depression had people using credit to buy everything

Consumers have been buying up TV's, mattresses, computers, fucking HEADPHONES etc on credit because of artificially low interest rates and stagnant wages. The economy has been SHITE for the last 10 years because instead of allowing the recession to clean up the economy in 2008 the Fed re-blew the bubble. The problems are a whole lot bigger now than they were in 2008.

>>18118031
the world its growing too fast. this dip WAS the recession. expect HUGE numbers when the cash starts getting handed out.

>>18118382
im so confused by this shilling. 2.0 trillion debt in just studen loans. Bigger than any fucking bubbe in the past. 90% of the loans are backed the Treasury, central banks are knocking on the door asking for thier money cause faggot liberal art degrees are just defaulting on thier loan. this bubble is going to pop and when it fucking does, you are going to wish the virus got you.

>this truly is the beginning of the end.

>>18118171
>Modern rail

America has none of that, retard. Long distance travel choices in the States are passenger air or driving.

>>18117739
Damn I knew buying more CKB was a good move

>>18117739
Good graph, pretty much mirroring wat's happening now

>>18117739
>thinking the world economy is in any way comparable to what it was when the spanish flu hit.

Fuck off you burger retards. Go eat a tub of sugar and die of cancer already

Some good dooming popping off in here.

>quarantine ends
>quarantined normans panic buy the nearest consumable goods en masse
>money velocity spikes, businesses and individuals get low interest rate loans so that they can panic buy more
>dow 30k by election

Fuck the virus, that's a non issue.
The economy has been in the shitter for ages and all of the "temporary emergency" measures have been the only reason for the climb since 08.
If the money printing and low rates went away for a month the whole thing would have tanked in a heartbeat.
Companies aren't profitable and people don't have any real purchasing power, it's all debt and this game of musical chairs is coming to an end because it's simply not sustainable.
US is a corpse that has been propped up artificially for decades.

>>18117739
>he doesn't know about the depression of 1920

>>18121714
Literal retard.

The Spanish Flu happened in fucking WW 1. During a fucking World War. The data you posted will NEVER be an analogy to the current situation.

Everyone in this thread forgets that Trump is literally meeting with Wallstreet and deciding on market moves.

Yes. The gov and Wallstreet are pumping and dumping you. Check their positions after their last meeting

>>18120371
REEEEEE stop shilling Nervos I haven't bought in yet

>thinks Spanish flu deaths were from a virus
>doesn’t know about aspirin overdose
>doesn’t know about the vaccine tests
>also thinks the Taliban did 911, the Great Depression happened because world war, and believes USA is free market

>You dumbshits seriously need to stop posting pics of fucking trannies.

BUY BUY BUY

lmao when the quarantine will be over small retailers will be DEAD and amazog will rule the USA©

>>18117739
The U.S. is fucked and so if everyone else now except China. This is why I'm all in Asian shit like ARPA.

>>18118641
>He thinks boomers haven't already withdrawn their savings from stocks
How can you take their money if it's not invested in anything

>>18118158
Should have faced up for a pair of boot straps, kiddo instead of fucking down kike cum lattes from starfucks.

>>18117739
>the months spell out JASON
Now hold the fuck on.

>>18119551
no its glowing all right

>>18122209
If the US is fucked China is fucked, everyone's fucked.

Who's gonna buy Chinese manufacturing products if the 1st world is in a deep depression?

>>18117739
No. This isn’t because of some virus. This is the accumulation of 40 years of bad monetary policy and the collapse of the west as a whole economic base. It might just be the end of the petrodollar considering saudis are going full retard

>>18118060
That’s not 2.3% of the workforce kid.

>>18117739
unemployment ath, bailouts.jpg
>nothing to worry about boys.

>>18117841

who will make our anti white propaganda?

>>18118109
This

>>18117739
The gig is up, nobody is buying the garbage products anymore and also propaganda is failing. The fake economy has come to an end.

>>18123221
>>>/pol/
stay there shizo

>>18118199
>If you don’t have a gun, I advise you to get one NOW.
most ammunition has already been going out of stock and whatittle remains has skyrocketed in price. it's already too late for that

>>18119578
Go back to watching tranny porn you fucking degenerate who cant even properly read a market.

>>18118199
Please leave this board anon

>>18117739
NOOO WHY IS NO ONE BUYING MY ECOMERCE BULLSHIT STOLEN GRAPHIC TSHIRTS

>>18122209
>>18122683
serious, and how does swiss historical strength not been factored?

The dow is going to four digits you fucking mouthbreathing retard this is the OBVIOUS BULL TRAP "return to normal" stay poor

>>18117891
like an oil price war?
like the household debt bubble bursting again because people lose their jobs?
like the mortgage bubble bursting again because people lose their jobs?
like big banks failing because they fail to generate profits because of the low interest rates?
like people losing trust in FIAT because they realise it comes out of the printer?
like physical PM decoupling from paper making the big bank price suppression scheme fall apart?

i think i mentioned everything possibly happening but feel free to add more.

>>18118048
t. brainlet who thinks companies wont go out of business soon because of the shutdown

>>18123599
forgot to mention the corporate debt bubble and stock buyback scheme.

thats probably the biggest problem imho

>>18123474
>>18123599
>>18123635

>>18117739
Bad comparison. Spanish flu happened during ww1 which changes everything about how the market behaves. It was also long before the bot-driven markets we have now and companies weren't as bubbly as they are now.

>>18117739
imagine thinking we live in the same world as 1918 was

>>18117999
Based trips of truth and sensibility

>>18117739
Aw yis

>>18117739
No I don't think you understand. We never recovered from 2008. Most companies in feb 2020 were never doing as great as 2008.
The labor force participation rate continues to decline. 1 in 3 didn't have a job, but were able to. Now it is going to become 2 in 3. That is unsustainable. There will absolutely be breadlines.

>>18117739
So what your saying is, the real depression, great depression 2.0, won't actually start until after we recover from corona.

>>18117739
coronavirus is a real pandemic and the socioeconomic situation is so bad that it's still being used as a distraction

this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression this isn't a great depression NOOOOOOOOO

>>18125956
seethe and cope failure.

>>18118092
based

>>18117739
>>18117929
>This is going to happen just like the Spanish Flu & we're already at the dead cat bounce of the W recovery. Nevermind the fact that the Spanish Flu dip lasted 6 months & we're only at 5 weeks

>>18117918
This right here

>>18118100
Until you realize California props up 2/3rds of conservative flyover states on its own.

>>18117739
>Nobody has jobs
>Nobody is fit to go to work
>Even if they did, nobody WANTS to due to this virus
>Nobody can afford to buy anything
>Reserve is pumping money into stocks like no tomorrow to protect investors who are scrambling to get back to a life where they can sit down and eat their rich juicy succulent lobster without having to move a finger
>Now people are saying it should all be fine to open up by easter

Remember when conservatives cared about the health of americans when obunga was involved? >muh swine flu!!! muh swine flu!! muh swine flu!!!

>muh obamacare bad! obamacare bad! obama care bad!! obamacare bad!! obamacare bad!

No one gave a shit about the Spanish flu because there was a goddamn war at the time. Literally 1% of the human population died but it didn't lead to a panic.
Corona chan isn't even that deadly but people are panicking and scared like never before.

>>18117739
>depression
good, i am already depressed since 4 years ago so, this will be a walk-in-the-park.

>>18117739
When Spanish flu happened stock market wasn’t at ATH bubble. Interest rates weren’t low either. Things are all fake now and it’s about to get ugly. Good luck.

>>18117739
>looking at the impact of Spanish Flu
Did you fucking forget there was a WORLD WAR going on at the same time?

OP DEAD ASLEEP KEK

Why would this lead to a depression?
People are out of work for a month and return to their jobs after..
Government keeps the lights on for the moment.

Consumer spending counts for 70% of gdp. Consumer's aren't spending.

>Don't worry guys! W shaped recovery is guaranteed!

>>18118343
shiiiieeeeet

>>18117739
yes its going to be great depression instead with deflation for the next 2 years

>>18117739
>citing 1917 LOL

>>18128236
Then why would anyone buy pms? Just hodl cash and buy up everything on the cheap.

>>18118092
anon how do i reduce exposure to hyperinflation?

>>18128861
Gold and silver. The problem with that is, there is almost nothing left to buy.
Most shops are out of stock and can't even say when they get new deliveries,most mines are also closed, as are most mints.