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1,000,000 for me

>>18093832
they need to convince the low IQ investors that 1-5 million deaths are guaranteed if we do nothing.

then you don't have to justify shit based on actual deaths.

unfortunately people are stupid, so that will require 1-5 million deaths to convince a certain segment of the population. Luckily that segment will suffer most of those deaths. So it'll probably even out around 1-5 hundred thousand.

>>18093873
this pretty much
I'm actually happy for the brainlets who think confinement is appropriate once you start stepping over bodies in the street
The first wave of economic losses was priced in two weeks ago, the current refusal to adress form th US is compounding the problem. Based tardos are building us a second entry point.

ITS JUST A NOTHING BURGER GOD EMPEROR TRUMP SAI-*coughs up blood*

>>18093832
>How many deaths do justify confinement?

When bodies start piling up in the streets.

this disease only kills the poor, fat, sick, retarded, or old
so its no surprise that Americans are terrified

>>18093920
I see it as cynical boomer propaganda

they have the most money in stocks so they play on the contrarian nature of brainlet wagies saying it's just a flu. Use current stats to back it up. They're sending their own kids and grandkids to die for their retirement.

luckily for them their offspring are just stupid enough to fall for it.

US pop is 340 million
1000 deaths is FUCKING NOTHING
3000 people died on 9/11 and yet we were all told to stop being racist and continue letting muslims in.

>>18093873
Global economic collapse would kill a lot more than 5 million people in the ensuing starvation and conflict, especially with how unstable global politics already are. Remember it took a world war to end the last depression. Even if that doesn't happen, is 5 million boomers losing their literal lives (which would last for less than another decade anyway) worse than entire generations losing their economic lives and futures? As bad as the disease is, and it shouldn't be understated how bad it is, the current cure might still be worse.

0.2% of 330million

if we shut down the entire economy, more will die from the chaos, the lack of food, the crime wave. they're already letting criminals out of prison early. total chaos as in no food, no water, and ex-cons breaking into your house to kill you. a lot of unprepared boomers are already going without toilet paper.

>>18094097
>the current cure might still be worse
I don't disagree, but I see the collapse as inevitable if we allow the disease to run its course

americans are pretty fucking stupid but when we see bodies piling up we will stay home.

>>18093832

Every 1 % unemployment rises causes 40 000 people to die

>Muh corona

>>18094120
>I see the collapse as inevitable if we allow the disease to run its course
How so? 5 million deaths is unspeakably tragic, but in a nation of 300+ million, where those 5 million are mostly economically unproductive elderly whose assets will be inherited by younger generations to reinvest, I don't see a complete collapse coming from that. Plenty of nations have faced worse in wartime and survived. Wheras what we're currently facing, with unemployment numbers worse than the great depression and rising, and the implication of such a collapse on a global economy, is a genuine existential threat. We are in the awful situation of having to choose between the death of millions and society entirely collapsing.

#FinNexus will connect settlement services, trading platforms, brokerage, and a wide range of other service providers.

>>18094166
the smart American isn't going to bet the life of his family on the idea that only old people die. Other countries have shown that's false. Even if the odds are lower the smart money stays home.

also our economy is largely funded and populated by boomers, so unless the next generations are trained and experienced and invested it's just going to funnel boomer estates to hospitals and boomer jobs to the ~85% of boomers that survive.

sorry.

>>18094166
>We are in the awful situation of having to choose between the death of millions and society entirely collapsing.

The collapse was inevitable. Their deaths were inevitable. Better to get it over with. I'm sure you'd love to make it to old age then hand the collapse over to the next generation, like the boomers did, but that's where we're at. Someone had to live through the bad times and it looks like it'll be us.

>>18094166
>We are in the awful situation of having to choose between the death of millions and society entirely collapsing.
not at all

trump has the right idea with mixed and targeted lockdowns. Tone the economic impact to the risk.

if that fails then letting boomers and the disabled won't save the economy because
1. everyone has boomers and sick people in their family they'll need time off to care for or bury
2. even healthy adults that survive this are going to take enough time off of work to crash the economy.

I’m not keeping up with all the numbers but once it was said the death rate is actually dropping well under 1% that was enough to get half the people not caring about it.

America is highly dumb and until they see bodies in the street it’s all fake news now. But the way trump is so brazenly saying get back to work I’m forced to assume they had the cure this whole time and will release it soon before it gets to a breaking point

>>18093832
61,000 Americans died of regular flu in the 2017-2018 winter season.

And then 38k Americans died of the same regular flu the next season.

That's a seasonal variance of 23k death variance for regular flu.
Corona is a blip on the radar compared to the annual VARIANCE of regular flu deaths, let alone total annual flu deaths.

Perspective, it matters.

(also, Obama waited to instate a national emergency until 1.2k deaths back in 2009. Trump did it at a few dozen deaths)

>>18094325
1% is still ten times deadlier than the flu

actual rate is about 4% right now, but that might be because people aren't being tested. But even 1% means almost a million dead americans. People aren't going to stand for that just to save an economy they don't see as benefiting them anyways.

>>18094352
>actual rate is about 4% right now
No it isn't.
The majority of corona cases are never tested.

>>18094348
>Perspective, it matters.

>current numbers are low so future can't be high

this is exactly what OP asked about, at what point does an idiot like yourself decide it's enough?

>>18094358
>The majority of corona cases are never tested.
>>18094352
>but that might be because people aren't being tested.

learn to read, moron

>>18094097
> Global economic collapse would kill a lot more than 5 million people in the ensuing starvation and conflict
And this is a bad thing why exactly?

>>18094363
China, Korea, Japan, Italy, ... already peaked.

In Italy for instance, 25k people died of regular flu in the 2013-2014 flu season.

>>18094376
There's nothing to read.
The majority of cases are never tested for corona, and simply get better on their own.
So any mortality rate for corona right now is absolutely useless.

>>18094097
Why not restructure the economy in a way where supply lines could be seized by local governments and key industries nationalized?

>>18094398
>There's nothing to read.
holy shit you're retarded

you're disagreeing with me for agreeing with you. Pleas go lick a doorknob on a public bathroom

>>18093832
>How many deaths do justify confinement?
327.2 million

>>18094401
So... communism?

>>18094417
You used the words "actual rate".
In English "actual" means "in reality". Maybe you meant to say "current".

You also said "that MIGHT be because people aren't being tested". There's no question about that.

>>18094401
Because socialism has no means of determining market price to provide efficient distribution. Read Mises.

>>18094452
this

>>18094437
actual refers to real statistics. Whether those statistics are representative or not is a different question.

>>18094476
>actual refers to real statistics
But that's the point: the statistics aren't real.

A better word would've been "reported".

>>18094437
>There's no question about that.
there is, because areas with extensive testing are doing as bad or worse than areas without it.

this could be a sampling bias where the worst areas test more, but it would negate the inaccuracy of the sampling bias where only people with symptoms get tested.

Sorry. Look at Italy numbers. Look at Spain numbers. Fuck it. Lets take the average deaths per million population for every country with over 1,000 total cases. That average is 11.36. You've what? 328 million in the US? So once deaths go over 3,800 you are officially in the 'doing worse than average' group. Look at the strategies employed by most countries 'enjoying' this average or less and then look at your own. American is going to be fucked. You currently enjoy about 1.5x the death rate each day ... sooooo end of the week?

Europe isn't locking shit down because it is fun or easy. It is because of the horrible power of numbers and statistics. America has that crazy freedoms thing so I can't imagine how loot and shoot you guys are going to get when you have to listen to the government for 90 days.

>>18094490
>the statistics aren't real.
of course they're real

they may be wrong, but they're still real

>>18094097
>Global economic collapse would kill a lot more than 5 million people in the ensuing starvation and conflict
In shitholes that don't matter

>>18094087
If this crisis has taught me anything is that the fear over right wing terrorism is just another spook.

Also while we can talk economy and how it isn't abstract and how it is vital to everything for the vast majority of people it is about heath, family and life. A lot of people here have realised they don't actually need the rat race as much as they thought. It only takes a few weeks to change habits.

Of course right now it is peak comfy. Stay at home. Nice weather. Cupboards are stocked with a variety of tasty food. Part of me is concerned with what 3 months or even 6 looks like. I see it as analogous to war time. People come through.

>>18094378
If you think it's a good thing, perhaps you should starve yourself to death and help it along.

>>18094505
>there is, because areas with extensive testing are doing as bad or worse than areas without it.
Okay well let's talk about that.
Germany is known for doing extensive testing, and their mortality rate is 0.5%; but even Germany aren't testing nearly enough to get something that even remotely resembles real numbers.

>>18094518
They're not real in the sense that they are absolutely unusable.

>>18094528
other way around. The fear over Islamic terrorism is a spook

the fear over white terrorism is real and makes sense. There's 103 million potential white terrorists, and like 1 million potential Islamic ones.

>>18094398
They peaked because of their quarantines you imbecile

1000 people in 2 months, some virus. Freeze the economy into a depression.

>>18094584
>The fear over Islamic terrorism is a spook
lol, tell that to Western Europe which is about 6-10% Islamic.

>There's 103 million potential white terrorists, and like 1 million potential Islamic ones.
Now compare their mortality rates.

>>18093832
Remember, the US stats are fake, people avoid the hospital b/c no insurance. Real stats are at least 2x what's listed.

also Bush did 9/11

and Trump will have done 9 9/11s :)

>>18094509
>Italy >Spain

Old and smokers. That’s what you’ll hear telling that to anybody

>>18094609
It isn't going to take 2 months to get 2000.

>>18094629
>Europe
what's that?

>>18094602
Quarantines only flatten the curve, they do not actually reduce anything.

>>18093832
>>>/pol/catalog

>>18094563
>They're not real in the sense that they are absolutely unusable.
they're perfectly usable because while we don't know how many have it vs how many die we DO know how many critical cases get tested vs how many die.

and we can track this over time to see how the influence spreads in populations and how quickly it kills.

we won't know the top end of the death rate but we already know it's at least 10 times deadlier than the current flu strains, and that it hospitalizes and kills far more people far more rapidly.

How many it will hospitalize and/or kill is open to question, but the tracking of spread- while incomplete- is enough to scare the shit out of politicians and boomers.

>>18094644
No but in two months its almost June when global warming is going to save us all from bad flu season.
Happening canceled, everyone go home.

>>18094664
The current statistics give a real number of corona deaths (exaggerated even, since Italy counts all corona-correlated deaths as corona-caused deaths), but a completely incorrect number of corona infections.
This MASSIVELY inflates the mortality rate.

The mortality rate is absolutely unusable.

Germany is known for doing extensive testing, and their mortality rate is 0.5%; but even Germany aren't testing nearly enough to get something that even remotely resembles real infection numbers.

>>18093832
Bullish for Suterusu and the Asian recovery.

Also want to say that there is a fair chance a lot of people have already had CV19. I can imagine that before the first confirmed case was laid up tested in hospital for the statistics there were people asymptomatic out there spreading it, people coming down with what they thought was just the flu 3-5 days later, second, third and forth generation even before the some of the first cases were failing to recover and becoming the first round of hospital admissions.

A lack of testing in the general population skews the numbers because for every confirmed death they'll be a 1,000 cases who don't know they've had it and never see the inside of a hospital let alone a test. If your policy is to tell everybody to treat at home unless serious and then when serious treat as a generic viral respiratory condition until death then test and boom 100% death rate.

That is why I prefer to use recorded deaths per 1m general population. It is about as objective as it is possible to get with all the different possible configurations of testing protocol out there in the world.

Average of 11 per million WITH a functional health system = 0.000011%. 85,800 dead? It is enough to make me a conspiracy nut with the reaction to this. Climate change. Insect death. Geopolitical restructuring and 'correction' of markets. We all knew a happening was coming march 2020 because of the asset bubble, just not what form it would take.

>>18093832
Death of human race is priced in

>>18094690
>The mortality rate is absolutely unusable.
I'm speaking only of the US. Like most americans I don't give a fuck what happens in germany.

in the US we've seen and tracked infections as they've arrived various places and we've watched death rates in those places against infection rates where everyone that feels slightly ill has gotten tested.

we're running higher than 4% and that's less than a week in for most places. That number is going above 8% and may go over 15% because people aren't being tested.

1% is a very low estimate here. And even that's 10 times worse than our flu stats. And it doesn't negate flu stats, it's ON TOP OF what we already expect the flu to kill.

>>18094747
>we've watched death rates in those places against infection rates
Impossible, since only a fraction of the infected are even tested.

>>18094768
>Impossible, since only a fraction of the infected are even tested.
we know from places that test how many don't show symptoms. It's not that high. If we test everyone with symptoms we're catching most of the cases. Time progressions of reported cases indicate this is true by increasing at a rate predicted by most cases being known.

we've stopped testing now because everyone is getting it. From that point we go to estimates. And estimates indicate 1-5 million americans will die.

>>18094768
>>18094804
>estimates indicate 1-5 million americans will die.
btw this is a range of .3%-1.5% mortality. Much lower than the 4% we appear to have. But still 3-15 times deadlier than the flu.

>>18094654
they reduce the number of deaths caused by triage. the actual mortality is quite low but of course higher if you can't give patients respirators

>>18094398
Anon, I feel it's important for you to know that you're very, very dumb, and that you should take that into consideration before making any big moves.

>>18094401
Trump explained that in his speech. Because the government has no clue who might have some experience building ventilators. Under capitalism, the ones that can, do.

>>18094804
>we know from places that test how many don't show symptoms. It's not that high
Yeah, about 10% in my area.
But then there are tons of people who do have symptoms, but never get tested either because they aren't severe. This is the majority.

>>18094849
>estimates indicate 1-5 million americans will die.
That's 10x more deaths per capita than Italy currently.
That's fucking retarded.

>>18094851
>they reduce the number of deaths caused by triage.
I was talking about the peak in (severe) cases, not deaths.

>>18094878
seething

>>18094941
>That's fucking retarded.
no, that's assuming we do nothing.

it's actually pretty low.

but we're comparing crashing the economy vs. not. So doing everything we can (Italy) vs doing nothing. In that case Italy is a best case scenario. Or germany.

>>18094849
>estimates indicate 1-5 million americans will die.
>>18094941
>>18094977

Excuse me, that's 73x more deaths per capita than Italy currently.
Stop reading trash.

And "doing nothing" will not reduce the death toll by much at all, it only extends the curve.

>>18095000
>Excuse me, that's 73x more deaths per capita than Italy currently.
Italy has been locked down for weeks, they've already crashed their economy.

>it only extends the curve.
in which case we're in for years of this.

>>18095000
In case you haven't noticed Italy is in quarantine.

>>18094650
like your mom, 350 million people were inside her

>>18095015
>>18095014
Lockdown and quarantine only extends (flattens) the curve, it doesn't reduce it.

>in which case we're in for years of this.
Italy peaked already.
Jesus christ what the fuck is wrong with you?

>>18095037
>Italy peaked already.
because they quarantined the entire country. That's what we're saying. IF WE DO NOTHING THE NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER.
>Jesus christ what the fuck is wrong with you?
I argue with idiots and children on 4chan I guess?

>>18093832

>>18094635
>Old and smokers. That’s what you’ll hear telling that to anybody
Being a smoker is still better than being such a hamplanet that you can't move around without a mobility scooter.

>>18095099
>*snort*
>70-80 years old and likely to die soon anyway ..
>inhabiting form unlikely to push 55.

>>18095058
>because they quarantined the entire country.
The quarantine only caused the peak to come later.
If it weren't for the quarantine, Italy would've peaked sooner.

I tried explaining this to you many times, but it's just not getting through, is it?
Here's a handy pic, again.

>>18094031
There was a corpse in my now empty downtown near work yesterday but he looked younger so I'm guess heroin. He did 65,000 a year in heroin, two Vietnams, and it wasn't worth upsetting trade with China to block fentanyl and it took us a decade just to stop US firms from doing it.

So really, it will be real in NYC in a week, and places like NOLA. Until it starts community spread in more rural areas, Trump fags won't care.

Good luck winning Texas if 15% of 80+ and 5% of 60+ die though. Corna is going to do White Genocide.

>>18095130
The point is pic related dude.

>>18093832
No amount is high enough for dumbass "it's a nothingburger" boomers. When comparing the coronavirus to the flu no longer is tenable, they'll start comparing it to annual heart disease deaths

>>18095196
We were talking about the timing of the peak.

He was saying the peak came early because of the quarantine measures, but the reality is exactly the opposite.

>>18094060
>renbts free

>>18094114
>unprepared boomers are already going without toilet paper.
horrendous

>>18095148
>Good luck winning Texas if 15% of 80+ and 5% of 60+ die though. Corna is going to do White Genocide.
I love China so fucking much, holy shit.
Based Xi and based bats :--DDDD

>>18094087
3000 people died and we changed the world. Imagine if every 3000 deaths from corona we went to war or started another TSA

>>18095290
Oh I get it. That thing where you clearly know what the other person is trying to say but argue semantics because you like having found an opportunity to feel smart.

I guess we agree that a lower peak developing over a longer duration is less traumatic and potentially destabilising than a higher one over a short duration. Though I'd see it more like this ...

Without quarantine and with health care capacity overwhelmed any containment/quarantine falls apart and infection continues to delay the decline in cases. Without lockdown you peak hard, you've a fuck ton of infected people out there spreading it so you decline slow, the rapid fall off is an assumption.

With lockdown you peak lower, you decline faster. Less people are infected overall and out potentially spreading it.

Of course afterwards is up for debate. We either have assumed immunity in which case the more infected the better (ignoring extra deaths) or we have seasonal variation like with the regular flu in which case you just don't want to catch it and roll any dice at all.

>>18094739
*Bullish

>>18094804
>indicate 1-5 million americans will die.
simply intolerable. surely god wouldn't allow this.

>>18093832
>he doesn’t know
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jfx7PnMtCeY

>>18095387
There's no semantics you retard.

him:
>"flattening the curve" is going to make this thing last years

me:
>Italy is already at peak

him:
>Italy's peak came early because of the quarantine

reality:
>the exact opposite: quarantine delays the peak

>>18094097

basedpilled

>>18095387
thanks doc

>>18094556
I’m not poor or a wagie, I will survive. It’s the cucks like you who must die to make way for the new industrial revolution of automation. The only thing stopping it is plebs like you who demand muh jobs and muh gibs. The population should be culled to 1 billion.

>>18094166
The problem is that without a lockdown there will be massive disruption anyway, as many of those workers with enough savings or even food and water will desert their posts en masse to play it safe.

Even those deserting workers with rent to pay will bet on the landlord and police not having the resources to kick everyone out.

>>18095095
Wtf is wrong with you zoomer? The blood doesn't get there unless you deliver it through ritual sacrifice. You can't just take credit for people dying of disease thousands of miles away you little pussy.

>le ultra mega happening
>daily death rate stalled
>the death rate is even more pathetic for the USA only data

>>18093832
>Using Italy, France Spain as reference

Out of 141 countries you just took the worst case scenarios and extrapolate from there.

>>18093873
>1-5 million deaths

Likely 6 million deaths.

>>18093832
Neither France, Italy, or Spain have reached the peak. That's a major problem actually. It keeps getting worse. An Icelandic study now claims 50% of people ars asymptomatic, yet studies done on the cruises show only 17% remain aaymptomatic throughout the full duration of the disease. Doctors and nurses are getting hit bad which has lead some to believe that the greater the contact with the virus, the worse your symptoms. We might be dealing with half a population of typhoid marys, reinforcing the virus, until the whole thing implodes. It's already been proven the virus can survive days on stainless steel and cardboard. On the cruises they found traces of the virus up to 17 days after the last patient had left. 17 fucking days.

It's too early to predict anything.

>>18094087
3000 people died and you invaded the middle east killing millions, disrupting the lives of many more, toppling nations, and sending waves of refugees to the EU.

>>18095196

meanwhile, in reality

The more dead ameriburgers the better

>>18095940
Much more of the growth rate is exponential than not. Recently it remains bullish a lot more than bearish. R3 seems sensible, but higher will be very possible with large numbers of infected publicly circulating.

>>18095958
I use average per million population. But Italy, France and Spain show what is possible. They exist. Italy is especially worrying because of the deaths per million population which is much more valid figure. Note it is still only 0.0117%.

>>18095967
>>18096009
What exactly do you think is going down?

Also wanted to post this. I checked the archive and it was posted on the dates it says.

>>18093832
370 million

>>18093832
More like 1000 elderly people may or may not have died from complications of a virus we know little about.

>>18094452
>>18094466
Why would I read something written by someone who couldn't hack it in private industry?

>>18093832
~35 million americans

>>18095339
>thinks USA isn’t starting another “tsa” from corona


Where’s your vaccination papers, comrade? It’s for your safety.

A handy formula that I use to calculate deaths, very conservatively, is a mortality rate of 1%, and an infection rate of 50-70% (going of of 50) before herd immunity has a chance to kick in. This puts global deaths at ~35m and the US at just above 1,5m dead. Trust me, my dad works at WHO

>>18094702
Unironically true. So fucking bullish on SUTER right now.

You can bet on how many people will die with $nCoV coronacoin.

>>18096004
Thank you america

Meanwhile here we stopped the quarantine because it only kill boomers.
We just told the old people to stay home, THEY are at risk, so THEY should star home.

>>18093832
There is no cost-benefit analysis here, its a false debate. The economy goes to shit if people start dropping dead and the hospitals implode

>>18094114
Adjusted for population growth, annual suicides during the Great Depression would be under 50k. For frame of reference, that's less than a bad flu season.

>It's just a flu, bro.

>>18093832
The US loses 30,000 people annually to flu
The world loses 500,000
We currently have 1000 US deaths from corona
And 21,000 globally

China had peak incidence and recovery within three months
New cases and deaths in Italy are already declining
Washington state and New York are already declining in their rate of rise and most states are nearly unaffected

If we don't start seeing at least 50x the daily incident disease rate and death rate we're currently seeing it's not even as important an illness as the flu

The normal, seasonal, non-pandemic flu
That nobody even thinks about

>>18096785
Deaths will be 15M+

20% require ICU care, 5% require ventilation.

>>18094654
>Quarantines only flatten the curve, they do not actually reduce anything.
There's a critical point where "flatten the curve" becomes "kills off the disease". That's a rate of spread of 1.

Say a quarantine reduces spread by 1/2. If the rate of spread is 2.5, then yeah, it just flattens the curve. If it's 1.5 then the disease is killed off.

>>18097609
You're a fucking idiot if you think we're going to be anything near China or Italy. Americans are dumbfucks refusing to social distance. Half the country isn't even quarantined and there's already calls to relax restrictions in the next few weeks.

Best case scenario is over 200k dead and we're not in a best case scenario.

This is the cure humanity desperately needed. No more mutts, no more anglosphere. Praise be!

>>18097766
HAIL TO THAT!

>>18097645
Whatever the spread rate is, it's merely extended with a quarantine. Unless the virus mutates or a cure comes in the meantime.

>>18097740
In that case, the US will simply hit its peak earlier and harder, see pic in >>18095130

>>18097740
there isn't a single person following social distancing or wearing a mask where i am at. everyone thinks Trump is doing a great job.

>>18093837
Stop trying to fit in so hard

>>18097609
china is STILL lying.

>>18093832
Good, the world is overpopulated and boomers that doesn't work might as well die. I can only see economical benefits.

>>18094401
FUCK OFF BACK TO PLEBBIT COMMIE FAGGOT

>>18093873
>luckily that segment will suffer most of the deaths
No it won't. Young, healthy people don't take the virus seriously. The elderly are terrified to leave home.

This whole corona hoax was planned to implement a bunch of agendas and provide an excuse for the impending economic collapse. Research event 201. See how covid-19 deaths are easily faked. The covid-19 test has false positives and negatives, highly inaccurate. Anyone who dies while "positive" for covid-19 is counted in the statistics. Quarantine has nothing to do with keeping you safe.

http://theinfectiousmyth.com/book/CoronavirusPanic.pdf

https://www.corbettreport.com/medical-martial-law-2020/

People don't understand risk.

It's much better to overreact early and be wrong, than underreact and be wrong.

All western societies that didn't lock it down early are now paying the price.

>>18094685
global warming is cancelled, no more co2 in the air retard humanity is over because we didn't burn enough coal

>>18098366
>Whatever the spread rate is, it's merely extended with a quarantine.
This is false. If you lower the spread rate below 1, the number of new infected every day starts dropping regardless of the total, eventually stopping. If you don't, then it can infect nearly the entire population.

>>18101056
>If you lower the spread rate below 1, the number of new infected every day starts dropping regardless of the total
Yes.

>eventually stopping
No.
This is only possible if you quarantine people until the number of infected is absolutely 0, which is obviously impossible.

So long as even a single person is still infectious at the end of the quarantine, the curve simply resumes with a different shape.

>>18101187
>This is only possible if you quarantine people until the number of infected is absolutely 0, which is obviously impossible.
Except it's not, because what you don't realize is that it also matters what stage of the disease that last infected is in. Yes, a person may still be infectious by that point; so long as they are also effectively quarantined (which they will, since it's likely they'll be on the tail end of their infection, either dying or recovering) the number will eventually reach zero.

>>18100907
>It's much better to overreact early and be wrong, than underreact and be wrong.
The societal cost of shutting down the economy will be worse than allowing some of the most burdensome, least productive people to continue to live.

>>18101272
>The societal cost of shutting down the economy will be worse than allowing some of the most burdensome, least productive people to continue to live.
>He thinks having hundreds of thousands of boomers die, our entire healthcare systems falling apart, and the preventable deaths that occur in younger people because hospitals are in shambles won't negatively impact the economy in the long-run

>>18101240
>so long as they are also effectively quarantined
Which is why I said "This is only possible if you quarantine people until the number of infected is absolutely 0".
Which is never going to happen.

You can bet on how many people will die from Coronavirus with coronacoin $nCoV

90% of this is in New York. Quarantine the state and let the rest of us go back to living

>>18098400
>Stop trying to fit in so hard

>>18101272
Reacting early costs far less than reacting late. You shut down early and deal with the problem compared to what is going on now, you're just prolonging the problem, increasing the damage done and in the end you end up having to shut down anyways.

It's about flattening the curve of infected, many more people than "the most burdensome, least productive" will die when healthcare collapses.

>>18101332
This is patently false. Eventually the number WILL be zero. This isn't AIDS, it doesn't remain until you die, as long as there's no new infections any remaining infections will resolve in a finite time.

>>18101744
>Eventually the number WILL be zero.
Yes, through the effects of immunity.

But so long as a single person is still infectious after quarantine ends, the spread will resume its spread with no difference other than the curve shape
All else (mutation, cure, ...) being equal of course.

>>18101827
You continue to stretch it. Yes, if you end the quarantine early, there will be further infections and growth, but there's a finite time interval after which there will be no more infectious people under a quarantine, and far fewer people in total will have been infected..

>>18102002
>if you end the quarantine early
This isn't about ending early, it's about ending so long as even a single person is still infectious.

>>18093832

>be USA
>let (((them))) do 9/11
>push out PATRIOT act
>20 years later PATRIOT act is still there
>(((corona))) happens
>push out freedom-limiting laws
>200 years later those laws are still there

Oy, vey!

>>18102002
You can't quarantine 100% of a population, or there's nobody to verify the quarantine is being upheld. Also people will die from lack of food.

You can slow the spread by quarantining a large fraction of the population, but you'll still have infectious people among those not quarantined. And then when you lift the quarantine, it will spread again at full force.

The only way to stop it is to achieve herd immunity, by slowly infecting everyone in a controlled fashion that doesn't overwhelm the healthcare system (as we're doing now), or vaccines, which will be ready some time in 2021 at the earliest.

>>18102307
You don't need to quarantine the entire population. You only need to reduce the number of interactions to the point where the disease is not self sustaining, that is, when its reproductive number r0 is below 1. At that point the number of cases will decline.

What's so hard about this to understand that makes copetards spam about herd immunity?

>>18102343
All you're doing is temporarily restricting the virus.
So long as no cure is available, the virus will simply start spreading again once the quarantine is over, until immunity stops it.

>>18097609
How are you this retarded enough to be saying these things?

>>18102343
Declining cases does not mean there are zero infectious people remaining. As long as one person remains infectious and there is no herd immunity, the whole thing will start again and the whole quarantine was useless.

Your proposition might work in cases where someone without symptoms isn't infectious, like the previous SARS pandemic. But with this one you'd have to test 100% of the population every two days for several weeks to be sure the virus is gone. And keep the borders and airports closed that whole time.

It's just not going to work. It won't stop before herd immunity is achieved.

>>18093832
The shanghai sniffles epidemic is a nothingburger. If people die so be it

>>18102477
>>18102501

This isn't how viruses or diseases work. No, you don't need a cure, SARS-Cov-1 didn't need a cure. In the case of SARS-Cov-1, the base reproductive was a fair bit lower, and as soon as any sort of quarantining measures were implemented, the reproductive rate tanked under zero and the disease was eradicated. There hasn't been a single SARS-Cov-1 infection since 2004. According to you we should've seen 1 billion infected with SARS-Cov-1 as soon as the countries affected with it stopped preventative measures.

And before you claim "but this disease is SARS-Cov-1", even ignoring the major genetic differences, it means that quarantining gave us 15 years with no global pandemic, while what you're proposing is going to make this a seasonal disease.

>>18102599
>reproductive rate tanked under zero
meant under one*

>>18102599
>No, you don't need a cure, SARS-Cov-1 didn't need a cure
It mutated.
Mutation is another variable which I covered in earlier posts.

>>18102625
Mutation is another reason herd immunity is a braindead strategy.

How many soul deaths are we at this year?

My soul died in 2017 or 2018...

>>18102651
It's really not, but ok.

>>18102667
It really is. Mutation means that herd immunity goes down the drain just like it does with the common flu. Do I also need to remind you that with the Spanish Influenza it resulted in an even deadlier strain, particularly for young people?

>>18094358
>No it isn't.
Not all flu cases are tested either retard. Corona virus is obviously much deadlier than the flu. Exactly how much deadlier? We'll never know cause we will never know the exact amount of untested flu cases and untested corona cases.

>>18102705
Herd immunity means most people don't get sick from the flu.

And I never said herd immunity was the answer to everything, so don't put up that strawman.

>>18102720
>Not all flu cases are tested either retard.
The flu is a well-established seasonal illness, the statistics are very accurate.

>>18102760
>>Herd immunity means most people don't get sick from the flu.
No, a low r0 means most people don't get sick from the flu. Most flu strains have an r0 barely above one. Rarely they go near 2. Even then:

>In the United States between 5% and 20% of the population are infected with influenza every year [2], resulting in between 3,000 and 49,000 influenza-associated deaths [3].
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480

>>18102833
I have no idea why you are trying to discuss herd immunity with me.

>>18102898
Because you came into a discussion about herd immunity, and if you didn't intend to claim mutation as some counterargument in that, you should've been more explicit.

>>18102933
There are a number of elements that stop viruses from spreading, including immunity (and cures, and warmer weather, etc.).

Barring any of these factors, quarantines only delay virus spread (unless the quarantine is 100% airtight, and persists until absolutely 0 infectious persons remain, which will not happen).

>>18103008
>There are a number of elements that stop viruses from spreading, including immunity (and cures, and warmer weather, etc.).
... and mutations.

>>18103008
Again, this is bullshit. You only need to lower the reproductive number below 1 for long enough that all remaining cases are in individual quarantine. This is GUARANTEED to happen in a finite time. You don't need to be '100%' airtight, you only need to be '90%' airtight.

>>18103069
>for long enough that all remaining cases are in individual quarantine
In other words: the quarantine has to be 100% airtight, and persist until absolutely 0 infectious persons remain, like I just said.
This is impossible.

>>18094398
>In Italy for instance, 25k people died of regular flu in the 2013-2014 flu season.

I must have missed the army lorries carrying coffins out of cities that year

>>18103138
>I must have missed the army lorries carrying coffins out of cities that year
Yeah, isn’t that strange?

Oh no!! Not the boomers!! How will we live without them ;((

>Why contain it? Let it spill over to the schools and churches, let the bodies pile up in the streets. In the end, they'll beg us to save them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feY5KhdXsUQ

>>18103122
In other words, twist what quarantine and '100% airtight' mean until you can circularly come back to your original conclusion.

Have you considered voluntarily infecting yourself with COVID-19 for herd immunity purposes?

>>18103601
You're having cognitive dissonance.

So long as there are no immunities, mutations, cures, vaccines, ... then a quarantine that is not 100% airtight will only delay the spread, with virtually zero effect on the total spread.

>>18103657
What you are saying has no basis in history, mathematics, epidemiology or reality. You have presented zero valid evidence and only circular reasoning, and yet you have the gall to tell me I'm the one who has cognitive dissonance. You hide behind abusing terms like '100% airtight' in order to claim it's impossible because '100% airtightness is impossible'. What even is 100% airtight? You mean quarantining every infected person? This is absolutely possible. Aggressive testing and aggressive quarantine measures have worked, do work and will continue to work. By lowering the infectivity far enough, it becomes possible to move the number of infected cases down to the point where it is possible once more to test every last contact of a person, at which point this sort of '100% airtightness' is not only possible, it is in fact trivial.

However you are conflating this kind of '100% airtightness' with the complete cessation of human to human contact, in which case either you are strawmanning or you have no clue what you are talking about. As this is the case, my only conclusion is that you desperately want the 'it infecting everyone' conclusion to be true, either to relieve blame from incompetent organizations such as the CDC, WHO or local authorities, from whales that are disinterested in death tolls, or to appease your own doomer sense of collapse.

Putting forward a statement ad infinitum will not make it true.

>>18093832
Please people safe humanity its time to fuck like is no to morrow before we all extinct...
Trump signing check to solve non existing problem for over billion dollars.
Next thing we know Trump lets make it over we tax money grabbing have done. it happens before every election "virus" is old American tax grabbing tradition. Statistics ? there is no people who know any one get sick

>>18103843
You're going off the deep end.

If there's even one infectious person left after the quarantine ends, then the virus will simply start to spread again, infecting pretty much the exact same number of people it would've infected without the quarantine.

All of this is under the assumption that there are no mutations, cures, vaccines, etc. during this time of quarantine.

>>18103915
Again, you've stated this with no backing multiple times, and I've refuted it multiple times with an increasing number of reasons why, yet you keep replying.

Are you seriously that retarded? Did your meds run out amid the shortages?

>>18094031
They already are. Taking bodies out of NYC in semi’s

>>18103972
I will need proof of that sir, and not "proof" from media outlets

>>18103954
That's how viruses work.

They start with a single infected person and infect people until something stops the spread (mutation, cure, vaccine, etc.).

A quarantine does not stop it, it only slows it down.
And so long as a single infectious person remains, it starts all over again.

>>18104053
Again, I've explained to you that it is possible to lower the number of infected to manageable numbers through aggressive quarantine, and then achieve 100% effective quarantine on the remaining infected.

You keep ignoring it as though somehow people are infected forever, or as if locking a small number of people (1 to 100) in a negative pressure room until they either expire or recover fully to the point where they are no longer infected is an impossible task.

>>18094509
he he he it is a hoax, there is no dead people, only numbers on the screen, dummy.

>>18104091
>it is possible to lower the number of infected to manageable numbers through aggressive quarantine
Yes, temporarily.

> and then achieve 100% effective quarantine on the remaining infected.
You can never achieve a 100% airtight quarantine, and it's nearly impossible to quarantine people until literally 0 infectious remain.

In principle, a quarantine on its own only flattens the curve, it does not reduce it.

Hence pic related.
Note that I did not produce the graph in this pic, this is standard epidemiology fare.
If you look up "flatten the curve" you will get a whole mess of similar pics with similarly proportioned graphs.
So please stop sperging at me.

>>18093832
6 million seems to be a popular number

>>18104251
HOW WILL MUH HOLOHOAX EVER COMPETE????

>>18093832
How many died from the flu this year?

>>18094087
oy vei it was da muslims goy

>>18094398
The Coronavirus is allready killing more people a day than the flu, and it's still an emerging virus. You have low IQ

>>18093832
>How many deaths do justify confinement?

something like 3% of the population, just think how unhealthy the bottom 3% of the population is, a fucking cold taking them out should not be anyone's concern.

>>18104581
No it’s not.
The flu kills many more per day at peak than corona.
Thing is the regular flu’s peak was weeks ago while corona’s peak is happening right now.

>>18094548
Trump isn't going to let people stay home for more than a month. Even if Coronavirus is ravaging boomers.

China is removing their lockdowns after 3-4 months of this shit also. I see more deaths in US because a generation has grown up on fast food with weak as shit immune systems and heart diseases which are prime kills for covid19. But there's no way US stays in complete lockdown for more than a month.

>>18093832
As a reminder, there were 12 deaths in Italy on Feb 26

>>18100867
do you have hi-res photos?

>>18094654
>Cant even read a chart
Holy, are americans actually that dumb?

>>18104945
Do tell what the problem is.

>>18097609
Hey I've seen some great China stocks, you better dump all of your trumpbux in them for the great returns! Trust me I'm your friend goy.

>>18103657
Cov mutated at least 10 times now from China to Europe to USA. Minor mutations, but you always start at near 0 with a vaccine.

>>18104656
>corona’s peak is happening right now.
Source? Coronavirus is still an emerging virus you fucking retard

>>18105635
The peak was reached a while ago in east Asia, and a bunch of European countries are forming plateaus right now, including Italy.

>>18094114
How the fuck will the hospitals manage you fucking nigger

>>18104657
Tell that to the overcrowded hospitals you dumb nigger

>>18105690
China is still in lockdown to this day, Trump would never do so for that long because it would tank the entire economy. Japan and Korea are afloat because they stepped in BEFORE it became a nationwide epidemic. We have no idea if the US, nor the other heavily infected EU countries are at a point of no return, which we most likely are. The influensa sycle follows a natural sycle, this has "peaked" because of human interventiononly and drastic halts to our economy. To keep it at this human made "peak", we'd have to go on like this indefinitely, which our government is never going to do

>>18093873

This right here.

Normalcy bias is strong, it's just nature. We're really bad as a species of being able to grasp exponential growth. No one accepts anything can happen until it lands on their doorstep, and even then most will still be in denial.

If we had the same health standards as in 1919, I'd bet this virus would turn out a lot worse.

>>18104725
>do you have hi-res photos?

It's called the Illuminati Card Game. First google result came up with this:

https://www.muslimsandtheworld.com/illuminati-card-game-all-the-cards-in-the-full-deck/

>>18093832
INTUBATE

>>18106135
The lockdown only delayed the peak in China.
If Trump doesn't lock down the US, the peak will come and go sooner (and more acutely).

>>18093832
I dunno exactly but it's a whole hell of a lot more than 1K

>>18094102
0.0006%

>>18094352
>but that might be because people aren't being tested.

Might be? Unless everyone on the planet has been tested, then yes, they might be.

The economy is everything. A society can't exist without a functioning economy. The US and global economy taking a major downturn can potentially kill far more than a theoretical 4%. I'm not saying the coronavirus isn't a major threat, but not being able to pay your rent, not having a job etc. are just as much a major threat.

>>18107225
For it to dissappear, it requires nearly 70 PERCENT of the entire chinese population to have been infected and grown immunity to the virus. Not even a quarter of 70% percent of the chinese population has been infected, claiming this is a natural "peak" to the virus is completely moronic as its only reached a few cities there. For China to completely starve the virus, it will take months more of complete solitude. If Trump wants to get reelected, hes not going to let the virus roam free without any form of intervention, it would lead to millions of deaths in a short span of time

>>18108270
>For China to completely starve the virus, it will take months more of complete solitude
lel better tell the Chinese.
They've been slowly getting back to work since mid-February.

>>18108359
They are because theyve effectively isolated the cities where the outbreak is rampant, and have tested enough people to have control on who has the virus. The cities, like Wuhan, are still going to remain in lockdown for months. Remember it went from 1 to 80 000 people, and they know it can easily happen again. Its going to have to be in lockdown for months if they are going for the virus "starvation" strategy, which few countries are going for.

Where
Are
The
Bodies

This is starting to sound like fake and gay bs to me.

>>18108616
>The cities, like Wuhan, are still going to remain in lockdown for months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52016139
whoopsie

>>18108650
Now please have an intelligent argument with me on how it wont go from 1 to 80 000 again, and then go to google and look at the wuhan live feeds to see that practically the entire city is still in lockdown

>>18108719
The virus spread all throughout China.
Quarantining certain cities would not make a difference, much like how it made no difference to Italy whether Wuhan was still in quarantine or not.

The virus peaked.

>>18108776
>The virus peaked.
why

>>18096004
It was a damn shitshow but damn if it didn't show the power of the US

>>18108810
My best guess for this short timeframe is herd immunity.
The duration corresponds with seasonal flu outbreaks.

>>18108776
are you still making this stupid argument?

no doctor in the world agrees with you.

yes it peaked, but only because of the quarantine. Without quarantine it would still be expanding. Holy shit you're retarded.

>>18108911
>yes it peaked, but only because of the quarantine
That makes no sense.
The more you quarantine, the later the peak.

>>18108924
>The more you quarantine, the later the peak.
yeah, this seems to be your prime mistake

do you also believe everyone in the world has been infected with SARS, MERS, Ebola, HIV and Zika, and that's why they've peaked and dropped?

>>18108908
How the FUCK does 80 000 people in China imply herd immunity for the 1 000 000 000 people living there. Holy fuck youre retarded im not arguing with you anymore

>>18109001
>your prime mistake
When you say "your", you're talking about epidemiology as we know it.
I did not invent "flatten the curve".

>>18109010
Obviously way more than 80k people were actually infected.

What do you think happened?
Corona mutated locally while the quarantine was in effect?

>>18109095
>I did not invent "flatten the curve".
You did misunderstand it though.

flattening the curve does NOT imply the disease will infect everyone, nor does it mean the disease can't be stopped by quarantine.

>>18109095
>you're talking about epidemiology as we know it
true, since 'we' is you and me and you clearly don't understand it.

>>18109152
>>18109177
>flattening the curve does NOT imply the disease will infect everyone
I never once claimed it would infect "everyone".

>nor does it mean the disease can't be stopped by quarantine.
It can be slowed by quarantine. Not stopped.
Hence "flatten the curve".

>>18109211
>I never once claimed it would infect "everyone".
so you don't know what herd immunity is now even though you claimed it not 5 minutes ago?

>It can be slowed by quarantine. Not stopped.
yeah, again, this is your error.

the funny part is you've spent days on here saying stupid wrong stuff and still stick with it even after dozens of anons have told you that you're stupid and wrong.

have a great day, see you tomorrow.

>>18095941
>You can't just take credit for people dying of disease thousands of miles away you little pussy.

>>18109270
>so you don't know what herd immunity is now even though you claimed it not 5 minutes ago?
Herd immunity does not imply infecting EVERYONE you absolute moron.

>your error.
"My" error he says.

"In epidemiology, the idea of slowing a virus' spread so that fewer people need to seek treatment at any given time is known as "flattening the curve.""
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

>>18109353
just quote the part that says quarantine CAN'T stop disease spread.

that's the only part that matters, since it's the only thing that would prove you right.

cherry picking moron

>>18108883
>spent decades looking for one fucking guy
>couldn't find him so eventually just lied about him being dead
>the taliban still has a stronghold not only in Afghanistan but all over the middle east
>literally couldn't beat farmers with sticks

>>18109397
>just quote the part that says quarantine CAN'T stop disease spread.
It LITERALLY says earlier in the article that actual containment had failed, and that the plan is now to SLOW the virus spread in order to flatten the curve.

Start coping any time.

>>18093832
Americans are retarded. We're a unified nation of States for a reason - every State is very different and is affected by this virus in a different way. Therefore every State should be handling it in a different way. New York for example is fucked beyond relief - Montana and West Virginia don't need the same relief NY is going to need.

So I propose we close off New York, Chicago, DC, Boston, California. The liberal strongholds, the coastal cities. Don't let residents in or out. Shut those cities down. The citizens there are seemingly in favor of that anyways. Send in the army engineers, national guard, build makeshift hospitals from hotels/conference centers for them to recover/die in. Let their local government sort of take care of themselves, but DO NOT LET THEM TRAVEL. Ban them from moving, take away their freedom of movement. Do it for the good of the nation. Once again, they're seemingly in favor of this - it's akin to taking away 2nd Amendment rights. "Saving lives" and all that.

In the meantime, allow the quarantine to run its course in flyover states. Remaining ~2 weeks or whatever. Continue to enforce social distancing and provide federal aid to improve flyover state hospitals. Here's the meat of my proposal: make a serious attempt to move the workforce to flyover states. Create job sites in the flyover states. Create manual labor jobs for lost supply chains. Create remote tech jobs for everything else. Focus heavily on moving jobs to middle Americans.

Basically allow flyover America to carry the brunt of the economy while the coasts recover/dissolve. Deurbanization of America. This is how you could solve this problem - promote technology, remote work, health and safety in the heartland while the coasts run the course of the virus. As long as we can protect the bulk of our States, we'll be OK. We just can't allow the infected coastals to travel. They need to run the course of the virus and recover on their own.

>>18109664
Basically we would need a strong leader from middle America to balkanize the Country. Part of this is convincing someone like Cuomo that it's a good idea so he's on board with banning citizens from travel. Checkpoints along the coasts to monitor travel from cities. Move the Nation's Capital city to the heartland. Focus on deurbanization, agriculture, local/national supply chains and technology.

>>18094452
Why would I read a book written by a retarded person?

bump

>>18093832
One thousand deaths.
In a population of three hundred thirty million.
That's less then .0001% of the entire country.
There are more people that hurt themselves falling on a banana peel then that. Liberals are so stupid it's embarrassing. Muh death! Muh tragedy! Got more emotions then a pregnant teenager.

>>18109664
>>18109750
Pic related is a guy who's much smarter than me basically talking about the same idea.

Balkinize, de-urbanize. Save lives. Move the American economy away from major cities to locations where we can still work, but don't move the people. Once the virus blows over we can slowly start easing checkpoints.

>>18110833
Brilliant

>>18098375
>>18097740
>>18093832
AH I'M GONNA COOF BROS IT'S JUST A FLU

>>18093832
>Using Italy,
Failure right there. Italy is misreporting corona deaths, because they're lumping ANY deaths in that area that's even fringe connected to corona as a corona death.
They also fail to point out how many of the deaths are the elderly, and the high population of chinese workers in that area.

>>18110897
trizzump

>>18110833
>much smarter
>>18109664
>>18109750

You're copying what Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge tried to do in 1970s Cmabodia

>>18093832
according to the government we have more than 300 million people in the country. 1% if 3 million people and some change

not even 1% of chinas population has died from corona. they have 1.4 billion people. nobodies country has had a 1% drop due to corona

>>18111010
>because they're lumping ANY deaths in that area that's even fringe connected to corona as a corona death.
I mean like a, what if, let's imagine there was a country where diabetes and heart problems and of course respiratory afflictions were extremely common because of how fat and inactive everyone was

of course then the virus kills those people who were driving a mobility scooter towards death's door anyways, sure. But that's the problem.