/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>168204
>forex trading strategy

>>168230

>not understanding corporate needs to hedge currency risk and cash flow due to taxation and geopolitical fighting

OP here
I also use bollinger bands when the market is ranging, as a general rule, the price will always return to the middle band

>>168633
I thought the rule was that if the price follows the lower band and stops, you should buy?

>>168204
i have some money to invest. how much can realistically make if i do this?

>>169263
Assuming you put zero effort? Maybe between 5% to 10% a year, depending on the shares. If you put a LOT of effort in, you could make something closer to 20% a year.

>>169276
ehh, no, if you put A LOT of effort in, you can realistically aim for 5-8% a month

>>169190
maybe, but when the market is ranging this is how i use them

Ok this is a very noobish question and not completely what OP is asking in this thread but;

Do pending orders still go ahead in MT4 even though you close the program and turn your computer off???

>>169497
yes, and TPs and SLs are triggered too.

>>169503
Ahh I see, makes sense.

Also want to ask you, are you trading live or demo and how long for??? Also what is your experience with slippage and re-quotes, as you're only looking to take 3-5pips(scalping?) I would think this would be a concern for you, no?

>>169349
>ehh, no, if you put A LOT of effort in, you can realistically aim for 5-8% a month
>5-8% a month
>Effective annual rate of return of over 80%

Jesus christ, you fucking retards need to leave this board forever. Just fuck right off.

>>169542
Do you trade forex???

>>169596

Do you make 80% ROI consistently? No?

Of course you don't, you fucking idiot. I'd be surprised if anyone here make 1/4 of that.

>>169621
No I don't, I never claimed to??? I'm new to forex and am still learning...have done stocks in the past though.

>>169621
But is 80% really that crazy???

Doing some math here:

Trade standard lot (100,000) all the time over the course of the year, average out 5% profit over the year. That's 5000 profit while trading with 100,000 on a 1:10 leveraged account.

So you just turned you 10,000 to 15,000 in one year. A 50% profit.

I am in bed and dozing off to sleep, so I hope I got that right....

>Majors
>H1
>Secret <:^)

R8 it m8s, I risk up to 1-2% of my balance before I SL the position

>pic related, a week of trading (10% profit per active day of trading)

>>169636
It's not that crazy, but you have to remember that it only works with small account sizes. At some point liquidity will become an issue. Ie buying/selling too much would move price.

>>170402
Ya I was gonna mention that, you can't keep it up as once you start playing with very large numbers I'm sure it'll impact price more and I'd even bet brokers would start taking notice and hedge against you. I guess the trick is to not rock the boat too much.

>>169875
Come on buddy, sharing is caring, what's yo secret eh mister???

>>171565

hot potato trading
look it up

>>172182

>>170402
The forex market moves the equivalent of 5 trillion USD a day. From us small time traders to national banks no one can corner the forex market. Unlike the stock market, yet people seem to think it's forex that is the rigged game.

>>172570
But isn't the real problem the brokers? I mean especially if they are market makers, with super large orders I'd wager they'd have problems effectively hedging against you. And it's hard to tell which brokers are MM or no dealing desks, even though say they might be one or the other, you don't really know how much shenanigans is going on behind the scenes.

Also, I guess it depends how well a broker is backed with good liquidity providers if they are no dealing desks.

But yes, agree. To effect the overall price of one currency, isn't gonna really happen with a few million dollar worth of trades.

>>172720
True, best you can do is use a reputable, certified broker.

Guys pls tell me scalping strategy that really makes money

I've been trading for a while but can't make money consistently and always ragequit uninstall MT4 and end up on /b/

If you give me good strategy I have no problem trading 10+ hours a day with good psychology

pls help me find strategy so I can make money before the end of the week or my parents kick me out

>>168237
None of which OP is doing.

>>169276
>>169349
This is so ridiculously wrong. If it were that easy we'd have so many FOREX billionaires.

>>169875

pls tell or give clue

>>172760

>>172803
the trend is your friend, don't fight the tape

>>172887
But how do you know the trend?

>>172915
by not fighting the tape, duh

>>172936
Not helping

I will be homeless soon guys it's all your fault

>>172986
Forex really isn't a place to make your sole income if a month or two of losses can leave you out on the street.

>>172986
Here's the secret. There is no secret to free internet money. It doesn't exist, go get a job.

>>172986
Have you even read Babypips?

>>173005
It's not like that. I only have to show my parents I'm making something so they stop thinking I'm a lazy fuck who's playing videogames all day (which is true) and I'll be cool for a few more years.

>>173008
Yes, I read everything, I studied all the books: Trading in the Zone, Alexander Elder, fundamental shit and macroeconomics... but it doesn't quite "click" for some reason

>>173032
ichi clouds coupled with something else, on pic related

That's all you're getting from me

As for it not quite "clicking", it's because you are trying to copy the trading style of someone else.
Just do whatever the fuck you want and keep doing whatever the fuck you want until you learn how to do it effectively. Go make a demo account and start from there

>>173052
Your picture has failed.

I like Ichimoku, but it's only suited for longer time frames really, and I like to daytrade/swing (although I guess it can somewhat be used for swinging?).

>>173071
I'm mostly daytrading with the clouds, but the most profitable ones stay two or three days up

Pic isn't broken, it's just too small in height

>>173032
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/19721-amazing-crossover-system-100-pips-per-day.html

Nice simple mechanical trading system.

>>173052
Okay, thanks.

What I want to do is scalp all day for 5-10 pips or something like that, but I never managed to do it for an extended period of time and move much above break even.

>>173148
IMO, being as inexperienced as you are, I'd stay away from scalping. Switch up to day/swing trading, you might do better.

>>173085
So you are just showing your TF and the pairs you trade??? I thought you were trying to show something more...

Do you use the H1 as your main TF to identify potential trades? What TF do you use to zoom into for a better entry???

>>173148
5-10 pips a day? Go for 10-20 pips a day with twice smaller lot size
Don't forget that tight SLs hurt more than having no SLs at all, and the same goes for TPs, so give them just a bit of a room, 20 pips each side should be enough (maybe +1/4 for the SL)

>>173148
Unless you have very very very thin spreads with your broker you can't make any money that way. Mange your risk, two bad trades should be canceled out by one good trade at least.

>>173170
Yeah that could be the solution but it will take months to see results, I hate that...

>>173178
I do everything on the H1 chart, but sometimes when I'm not sure enough I open an extra M5 of that pair and put in several other indicators to confirm the trend
In addition to that, I have an indicator that shows the resistance levels of all the timeframes (which is amazingly correct), so I really don't have to switch between TFs at all

Here's a pic of a M5 experimental chart that I use to combine with the H1

Going to get some sleep now, fucking 3AM already and I'm tired of looking at colorful charts
If you got any questions, ask and I might answer them tomorrow if I feel like it

>>173179
I meant 5-10 pips per scalp, but okay will try to see what I can do with this TP/SL combination.

>>173186
I dunno. With MBT you have spreads under 1 pip (+ commission), but you don't pay commission if you close the trade with TP limit order, so you actually make profit even with 1 pip TP.

>>173233
Are those...are those all moving averages on that graph?! damn that's a lot.

What is this indicator you use for resistance levels??? Or is it your own custom indicator? Pivot points? Channels? Fibs? Or using the ichi clouds???

>>173233
If it's 3am, you must be European, Italy? Germany? France, swiz? From UK myself.

So guys whats the catch with forex?

Ive been trading with a small micro account and started trading 0.02 lot with a very simple strategy. I just wait for significant support and resistance points to form on the 15m and buy/short immedietely when they break and close the trade for 10-20 pips usually within a half hour.

In the past couple months its been profitable and ive made enough to trade 0.2 lots now. So whats the catch? Am I going to hit a volume wall where I wont be able to get fills at 1 lot or something?

It cant be this easy to make significant money what am I missing?

>>173449

You might have a problem when you experience higher volatility and larger size losses. Nothing really prepares you for those.

Sounds like you're doing well, though. I say go for it.

>>173449
Are you demo or live with this strategy?

>>173499

Live after a lot of demo time.

>>173334
I'm from Europe too, Spain.

>>173449
No catch. Eventually yeah, you'd have liquidity problems at high levels, but if your broker is a major player even with 10 or 50 lots you won't see a difference.

Also sometimes the market conditions favor a certain kind of strategy. You can backtest your strategy over historical charts to see what you find and how would your strategy do on the long run.

Besides that as long as you're making money just keep doing what you're doing and don't mess up and you'll get rich, also share the details of your strategy.

>>173533
What are us eurofags doing up so late lel?

Whats the best way to backtest? Does MT4 have some sort of back testing function??? And are there any backtesting systems that also pinpoint or plot on the graph and historical news or data releases? It would be nice to know why that sudden spike on my graph is there and why my technical strategy just went to shit. Otherwise you might end up thinking your technical startegy is shit but in reality that uptrend started on some sort of news release.

>>173528
How long did you demo that strategy for?

>>173568
Being NEET.

If you code your system in an EA you can backtest automatically.

Elsewhere you can do it manually with a simulator for MT4 you can find online, either that or just go anywhere in the chart and press F12 to advance the chart 1 bar at a time.

Pinpoiting news on the chart would be interesting, that's a big problem when backtesting, that you cannot account for those. There's some indicators for news, but I don't think any of them work on historical charts.

>>173533

Theres not much more details to give its pretty simple. Almost too simple. I use RSI and a few MA's to get an idea of where to take profits or which breakouts/downs might be better to trade on. Wait for a currency pair to hit off a specific spot 3+ times and then when it finally breaks I buy and it usually immedietely spikes and typically closed within 10 minutes.

Just seems to require the markets to be moving some when they are dead I usually cant find a trade but most days I can usually find at least 1 sometimes 2 or 3.

>>173595

3 months or so then went live after some hiccups of getting used to real money trading its done good.

>>173619
Ahh bollocks to no news indicator.

I tried the F12 thing on MT4, the only issue I had was that if you go back on one TF the ohters don't follow, so if you're emulating backtesting and looking for trades I would generally go into a smaller TF for entry, but when using the F12 backtest on MT4 the TFs don't go together and it's annoying.

>>173637
What is your trigger that lets you think it has broken? When it moves X pips over the level or something like that?

>>173637
What were the hiccups? Was it just psychological that you're now using real monies? Or was it that you found the brokers acted differently on live in regards to spreads, volatility, liquidity, etc???

>>173663

Yeah I just place orders a few pips past the supports/resistances and wait for them to trigger.

>>173667

Purely psychological tried trading too much money for my account size and was letting emotions get the best of me but after going to such a small amount and building back up thats went away.

>>173684
Oh I see. Can I ask what amount you trade with? What leverage(if any) do you use? How much do you keep in the "usable margin" balance???

Sorry about all the questions...

>>173749

I trade with about 1500 on 200 leverage. Never paid attention to the last question so not sure.

>>173825
Holy shit, 200 leverage. Don't you ever get margin called??? Don't you need a certain amount of "usable margin" in your account to weather moves against you?? I mean even a 0.5% price change against you will wipe out your 1500.

>>173923

lol sorry im retarded I should have been more clear.

I can have up to 200 leverage but I dont use that much at any one times. I only trade 0.2 lots (20000) right now. So whats that like 1:15 leverage? It would take a lot of trades in a row to wipe my account out so I dont worry about that i rarely have more than 1 trade open at the same time.

>>174003
Ahhh yes that makes much more sense lol, otherwise you surviving for over two months using 200 leverage on 1500 would've one hell of a lucky streak!

>>169621
Someone in one of the previous forex threads supposedly consistently made 40% a month with just naked graphs.

>>170402
>buying/selling too much would move price
>in forex

I have been trading forex for almost a year now so here's a few tips

trade as little money as possible each trade until you achieve consistent profits

never trade without SL but don't put very tight SL either

combine both technicals and fundamentals, there are way more chances for a move to be correct if both coincide

don't place trades during high risk and unpredictable events (Fed, Central banker speeches)

trendlines are the oldest and most used form of indicator. the larger timeframe trendline, the harder it is to break.

don't use too many indicators, it will only confuse you more

you need to learn the fundamentals and long term trends of each currency and their relation to other currencies and global events (yen, usd appreciation during risky periods, aud depreciation from bad China data etc)

Does /biz/ have a recommended simulator?

>>175498
A demo account with whatever broker seems good.

>>174842
Have a good calendar for those high risk moments? using forexfactory right now.

>>175792
I use the one on fxstreet.com

it shows the countries flags and has sound notification

>>175799
Ooh thanks!

Right now I'm kind of playing it simple with this mechanical system: http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/19721-amazing-crossover-system-100-pips-per-day.html and have had a moderate success in my whopping 2 days of trading. Also did you have any idea about that 200+ pip move across the board of JPY at around 1 am EST?

>>173449

the catch is that one time you get reckless and deviate from your plan and wipe your shit

>>169263
Buddy this isn't an "insert money = make profit" industry (Trading forex and/or stocks). Like anything in life, expect to dedicate time to learn what the fuck you are doing and then become a professional.
Dont believe all the marketing bullshit. Pro's only become pro's through hours and hours of beating on a craft.
Not because they followed someones strategy or read a single book.
Don't use anyone's strategy unless they show you a proven track record of wins/losses over a long period.

Took me years to learn and I lost thousands to get consistently profitable.

>>169263

10 percent per year if you learn the basics and have the stomach for it.

ive made like 120% over the last 4 years but thats only because I got in at a good time.

>>177428
Don't listen to this guy
The "best" traders in the world do so little only because they are limited by their enormous volumes that they have to trade, and their profitability is compared to the total money they have for investment, and you guessed it, they will never manage to fully invest their capital, so most of it stays in useless reserves

If you are trading with less than a million it's perfectly acceptable to receive 10% per month, not year

>>177582
Didn't you say 10% a day before?

>>177742
Yes, but I really don't recommend risking that much with more than $50k
Making 5k per month is more than enough for sitting behind a monitor, agree?
Not that you will lose the money if you have a good strategy and go 10% per day, but still, it's a lot of money and greed is bad.

>>177796
Yes master sama sensei!
I want learn!
Please tell me what to do!
TSUYOKU NARITAI!

>>177892
>I want learn!

Then do it, no one is stopping you

Wake up, read forex stuff, go to sleep, repeat

>>177908
But Master, there is so many information out there. How can I know which things are worth learning and which ones are bullshit?

forex is a zero sum game, but slightly better than gambling because of reduced house fees.

>>177934
>How can I know which things are worth learning and which ones are bullshit?

You don't, you'll have to filter the bullshit AFTER you have learned it and realized it's bullshit. Such is life

>>177940
Wipe pls go

>>177952
Not wipe.

Retail forex is gambling, not investing. Bad to tell the naive otherwise.

>>177934
Go read babypips, by the time your out of kindergarten you'll be able to laugh at how wrong the trolls are and even explain to them why they're wrong in nice simple words if you feel like it. They keep things open in terms of interpretation, for example fibs seem to work, but they mention repeatedly that it is likely because they're popular and it could be self fulfilling.

Watching USDJPY crawl it's way up right now and kinda wondering if my sell on EURUSD is gonna recover. Bought in USDCAD at 1.11067 and hoping it's just testing the RSI. So many "strong" signals scaring me here. But that what you get with 24 hours hands on experience lol.

>>178001
>Watching USDJPY crawl it's way up right now
>up
>implying it's not at resistance and is going to reverse

>>177940
If your using a typical strategy yes your win/loss ratio will be about 50/50. But if your not retarded and manage your risk when you win you get a substantially higher payout than when you loose. this is why everyone says "Be sure to set your stop losses". Fees only become an issue when your profits are in the low single digits as they're taken as a slight difference in buy and sell values. 3 pips gets wiped out by 100 but at 10 pips it's seriously going to eat your bottom line.

See what I mean about baby pips?

>>178029
It is still gambling even if your win/loss ratio are above 50/50 in the same way how being a pro at poker can increase your odds above 50/50.

Any zero sum game where the house always win (in this case, the forex/brokers) is gambling.

>>178050
>investing in stocks is gambling because there are fees
>owning a shop is gambling because the house (government) always taxes you
>living life is gambling because death always wins
>the universe has zero-sum energy, therefor it's pointless to exist

And today kids, we have learned that
1) everything in this universe is gambling
2) stockbabbies are retarded

>>177940
>>177940
>zero sum game
not its not. a big amount of forex movement is done for commerical purposes and stock investing flows. it might look like gambling for new traders because its very hard to understand how it works but its not. if you are stupid or want something easy to do just go back trading permabull stocks

>>178074
Difference between stocks and forex is that stocks are not zero sum, same with starting a business and economy as a whole.

But I'm not here to debate with the deluded. Just don't want you to fool a bunch of naives

>>178091
>>zero sum game
>>not its not. a big amount of forex movement is done for commerical purposes and stock investing flows

my sides

>>178100
nice argument there buddy

>>178050
Obviously you don't understand expected value in statistics/game theory. Leme crunch the math for you:

On a coin flip if i win I make 3 dollars, if I loose I pay 1
The expected value of winning is $3 x 50% = $1.5
The expected value of loosing is -$1 x 50% = -$.50
So the overall expected value is 1 dollar. Out side of the terrible luck of loosing every single one of my flips I'll be able to keep playing and make a profit.

Next you'll say "How can that be?! Not everyone can be a winner!" and your right. Some of the money you make comes from other traders losses, but the majority of it comes from the necessity of currency trade in the global market. When you visit another country and convert your money for the local currency you've participated in forex, you just aren't caring about winning. Likewise if Apple wants to pay foxconn for all those IPads they make they'll have to buy Chinese yuan to pay them. So not everyone can win, but not everyone is playing to win either.

Seriously read baby pips people.

>>178118
You just described (professional) poker, except poker is still gambling.

And there are professional poker players that make can consistently make a ton of money. It is, however, still gambling.

>ome of the money you make comes from other traders losses, but the majority of it comes from the necessity of currency trade in the global market. When you visit another country and convert your money for the local currency you've participated in forex

This is not retail Forex.

>>178011
Almost forgot about you, USDJPY has been down recently yes but currently there are bullish indicators holding and we are well below the monthly resistance level.

>>178094
>starting a business is not zero sum
>the "economy as a whole" is not zero sum
>>you magically shit out money without causing inflation or taking away from other countries/currencies/people and harming them instead

This is what stockbabbies actually believe
Literally everything around us is zero-sum. You can not create money without any side effects, so you EXCHANGE it in a ZERO SUM game of politics and globalized economy. What you profit today is bound to be lost some time in the future, no matter who or which country you are. The same goes for the stocks (and everything around us).

Being successful in the stock market is equal to being successful in the Forex market, because if you zoom out enough, you will realize that everything is zero-sum.

As for what's gambling and what's not, anything that makes you more profit than the safest investment in the world is gambling.
If it's not the least risky investment on the planet, it's automatically gambling, because that's the definition of it, all you are changing is the percentages.

>>178197
>This is what stockbabbies actually believe
>Literally everything around us is zero-sum

Lol. Compare US in 2000s to 1800s, and you can try telling me everything is zero sum.

I'm done talking with you

>>169542
80% per year is way high but accomplishable if you are really good. My trading partner is making around 40% profits a year on his capital trading forex and options. He has an instinct for it though.

>>178164
>This is not retail Forex.
Can you give me some kind of source for that? I'd hate to be spreading misinformation.

With poker and all other casino gambling the house sets the payout, in Forex you do. The house underpays on the expected value of wins and overcharges on the expected value of losses. Likewise you do the same in Forex to keep safe. As long as a casino has money to keep paying out wins they're in business, and given there are more losers than winners in every casino game, they're in good business. Fortunately the market doesn't complain when we traders say payouts absurdly in out favor lol.

>>178225
Lol. Compare the Roman Empire in 2000s to 100s

I'm done talking with you

>>178197
10/10 most retarded thing I've read all week.

>>178311

>>175539

>>178197
>Construct a portfolio of global equity index ETF's
>some will rise, some will fall
>but long term most would expect this strategy to be profitable

Forex Equivalent
>go long every major currency
>does not compute

The thing you forget is that the stock market is a forward looking mechanism. An equity's present value is the sum of future cash flows. Estimations of future cash flows are always in flux.

When investors are optimistic, valuation multiples and growth rates increase, stock prices go up, and wealth is created. The opposite occurs on the way way down.

Forex is more like commodity markets which are indeed zero sum. Contango kills long only in the futures market

>>178197
That is not really what zero sum means. zero sum is a game theory terms where the degree to which one player wins is exactly equal to to how much the other player(s) loose. Ultimately only one side can benefit. The stockholders and the company selling them can both gain money in the stock market. In Forex it's more like your selling the service of liquidity in the international market. Money has to be converted somehow and if there aren't people willing to buy and sell it then it's not going to happen. Assuming I'm not wrong about Forex being the exchange market for business trade like I believe >>178164 says.

>>178352
Zero sum is also used to describe a process of exchange without any additional creation (hence the zero-sum energy hypothesis)
That's exactly what happens in the Forex, I admit it, but that's also what happens with everything else in the world. You don't create money when you open a shop, you exchange it so you can exchange it for something else and so on. The government doesn't create money when they print more dollars, they create an inflated currency. All they do with the money is exchange it, and since not every country in the world can have a healthy, growing economy without causing inflation of their currency, they profit on the backs of the countries that have a declining economy.

I'll say it again, when you trade stocks, you are not creating money but profiting on the back of someone who isn't, else you wouldn't be profiting at all. You are transferring money in a zero-sum game.
Stop pretending to be retarded and think before you post because I'm sure all of you know this perfectly but just have that urge to shitpost in a forex thread.

>>169542
>>Effective annual rate of return of over 80%
man please lrn2math
8 percent monthly =/= even close to 80% EAR
you should just take your own advise and kill yourself

>>178421
If there is a speculative bubble and you decide to ride it, the stock then dips 5% and you sell everything helping to trigger a crash, you are bursting the bubble, you are putting an end to the farce before it gets any bigger.


taking money from stupid people is an economically productive activity, you are doing the economy a favor, it is called "capital allocation", making sure the nation's resources go towards things that are actually economically productive, taking money away from Tesla and 3d printing fanboys and putting it towards the company which provides machinery for the oil industry that is making innovative use of new technology and will do a lot of good for the economy but which is in sore need of capital and few people are willing to invest in it because it is difficult to understand and so few middle class dads going through a midlife crisis have heard of it.

Jesus christ what's all this shitposting about zero sum this and zero sum that??? Truly, who gives a fuck if it is or not, the only thing that matters is can someone persistently make money in the game. And the answer to that is yes. That's all I fucking care about.

Also, how to pivot points in MT4??? I can't seem to find it anywhere?

>>178620
You have to download indicator for pivots.
Also this.

Anyone know fo a broker that uses meta-trader and lets you specify your demo account size? I want to see if I can double 1000 instead of assuming I have 50k to burn.

>>178759
All of them?

I personally use Instaforex

>>178452
You're retarded bud.
5% per month is almost exactly 80% per year.
8% per month is over 150% per year.

>>178661
Where do I download these indicators from???

>>178954
Forex Factory or google.

>>178915
lrn2 composed interest

>>168204
short twitter stock

>>179078
Oh I use forex factory, I'll have a look around, thanks.