[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance

View post   
File: 1.82 MB, 1080x2280, Screenshot_20200125-221334.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16981943 No.16981943 [Reply] [Original]

But deep down you'd really like to be in his position by 45
https://youtu.be/8yNsKxbq0Ak

>> No.16981954

39*

>> No.16981975

Why does he look so old and so young at the same time?

>> No.16981999

Yes I would like to be retired. May kek bless you.

>> No.16982540
File: 850 KB, 938x585, moose knows what he needs to do.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16982540

Dumbass in the video only has $645k with a $395k (but paid off so good for him) house. Even with an optimistic projection anything above $25,800/yr is going to screw him next time the market dumps.

I can appreciate the sentiment of, but what a mediocre example of "making it".

>> No.16982559

>>16982540

$25k/year is fine if you have no rent / mortgage, car payment, etc. That's literally equivalent to making like $100k but paying rent, car, 401k, savings, etc.

>> No.16982567

>>16982559

Forgot to mention taxes too.

>> No.16982579

>>16982559
Cars aren't forever

>> No.16982594
File: 115 KB, 750x757, 1561664876370.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16982594

>>16981943
>t. nopants

>> No.16982606

>>16982579
No but your V card is

>> No.16982620
File: 153 KB, 720x960, IMG_20200118_013006.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16982620

>Skrimp and save for half your life so you can spend the second half living a lower middle class lifestyle.

Fuck that I'd rather wage cuck doing a job I somewhat like that pays well while passive investing while enjoying some luxuries. These people aren't actually living but existing.

>> No.16982633

>>16981943
45 lmao, at this rate if link doesnt moon i be slaving until 80s

>> No.16982651

>>16982620

This guy's book will probably make him more money than he would have made wagecucking.

>> No.16982684
File: 88 KB, 720x720, 1578975134233.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16982684

>>16982559
Okay, I'mma sperg out so lets just get this out of the way that I know this is a wall of text.

Maybe in Canada, but I'm an autistic sucker at best so I went over to the blog. In 2012 he was planning on $25,800/yr (canadian-dream-free-at-45 ... 2012/11/26/2012-retirement-calculations-part-i/) so +1 autist points for me pulling the 25,810.4/yr number at 4% of his December 2019 net worth.

That means that between 2012 and 2019, he was nominally on plan, but fell short after inflation. He would have needed $731,247.5 to pull the inflation adjusted $29k/yr. The Shiller CAPE for December 2019 was 30.91 which cribbing from the Early Retirement Now Part 3 blog post gives him an absolute best change of not running out of money of ~85%.

That's not terrible, but unfortunately he seems to be at about a 93% equity position which drops his predicted success rate down to about 50%. On the other hand, he's Canadian so if we set healthcare costs at an average of $10k/yr and credit that as virtual net worth by living in Canada, then his NW updates to approximately $895k, drops his withdrawal rate to 3.2%, and pushes his success rate back up close to 100%.

So, he is *maybe* set as long as there are no unexpected healthcare costs or other costs of similar size. He was an engineer though. My opinion is that he should have toughed it out for a few more years and given himself more of a margin of safety.