/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>16711734
>always do the opposite of biz

>>16711734
Unlikely, the newly elected president (Trump) will not allow for a crash in his/her legislation

>wow its fucking nothing
Central banks are always meddling with nations' economies faggot.
Go to khan academy. theres beginner Econ lessons there

>>16711750
It will crash sometime after his re-election if he wins again. The economy is already overcapacitated, they are just holding back the fall.

Australian reserve bank will go into nagtive interest rates this year. Will be interesting to see how well the property market is propped up. Will be more interesting to see how hard it falls.

All these fucking zoomers with chicken little syndrome and MAJOR recency bias

Recession doesn’t mean collapse, and there’s a good chance we just went through a little recession. In energy and manufacturing at least.

>>16711787
Or is it?

>>16711734
BUMP

>>16711734
SAUCE

>>16711912
Sorry can't remember the sauce. Just one of the thots I had in my folder. Probably an instagram model.

>>16711831
There was people jumping out of windows in 2008. People were calling for the end of capitalism. In the en the Fed just band-aided a solution together and now we're going for round 2 which will very likely be worse.

>China manipulates their currency
>Implying the US Fed hasn’t been doing it since the beginning
Also source OP? Oh wait you’re bullshitting

>>16711734
chainlink is a scam

>>16711831
Right, what matters is Fed policy. Nearly 2 bp to cut and ongoing "not QE" repo mean 2020's going to be a banner year.

Unless Trump doesn't carry out Israel's war against Iran, then the economy will need to crash around September/October.

>>16712129
“No”

2008 WAS round two

>>16712877

>>16711859
yes retard. it is fundamentally fucked.

2022 is where the data says where did people get this 2020 oh listening to the media dumb faggots

>>16711734
>With so much fiat being created and financial sector probably secretly fucked up and waiting to crash how do you think crypto prices will ne next year?
Crypto will go to the moon. People will look for shelter in hard assets. China and russia are already buying gold like mad to get away from the u.s. dollar.

Btc will go to 100k. Less to do with speculation and more to do with real demand for a safe haven so basically gold 2.0.

>>16711786
ya and the money the fed pronts doesnt even circulate into the economy, dipshit. Central banks are what is causing this shit storm. Even worse due to negative interest rates. Fiat is fucking dead

>>16713214
Nice dream

>>16711831
>a little recession
>little
kek this is going to be the worst crash ever

>>16712129

As a 30 year old boomer, I believe this is somewhat true; we are about to (near future) enter into round two of the fallout associated with imperfect monetary policy (loopholes abound) and greed (banks, jews, actual boomers).

I'm seeing all of this unfold in front of me, for the second time in two decades, and I really just don't know what to do, and I don't know how to respond.

I'm not even sure I have any idea what the world will look like afterwards, so I have absolutely no idea how to prepare.

>>16713226
Shit response

>>16713214
>hard assets
>muh math

I do not want to sound like a bearfag but avoid descriptions such as 'hard assets' please. most of crypto is not even fixed supply and software bugs can break this whole thing in a blink. just take care.

Basically we are propping our economy up like china is doing but it does scare me

>>16713275
>software bugs can break the whole thing

You do realize btc has only been down for like 30 minutes in these 10 years, right?

>>16713228
30 year olds aremt boomers

>>16713342
what about all the centralized shitcoins and iota coordinator and all the cryptography algos (even in decentralized coins). in software nothing is safu m8. remember truecrypt?

point is, its good until its not.
dont compare it to hard assets like commodities.

>>16713275
A major bug could definitely fuck the Crypto market in a blink but luckily things can get rolled back with forks and stuff. So bugs are definitely a concern but things can get back to normal easily enough. This is also why 51% attacks are hard to pull off. They can just roll shit back if everyone agrees to.

>>16713429
Dont bother with alts. Simple

>>16713565
trade them and leave them

>>16713424

>>16711745
Don't fuck your father

The thing is, we've known that the Fed has been directly intervening since 2009 but asset valuations are through the fucking roof.

People don't give a shit as long as asset prices increase. That's the bottom line.

Now you say there will be consequences: there needs to be a major trigger for there to be consequences.

1. A major trading partner rejecting the dollar system in a big way (China or the EU).

2. Tightening monetary conditions. Remember, Powell said publically that his cuts in 2019 were mid cycle cuts similar to 1998.

In September to November 1998, they cut rates three times at .25% a piece from 5.5% to 4.75%.

By June 1999, they were raising rates again and continued basically raising rates every FOMC meeting until it reached 6.5% in May, 2000. The Nasdaq 100 reached it's dot com peak in March 2000. The S&P 500 had a double top in March 2000 followed by a higher high in August 2000.

Remember, this was all in the context of the 2000 Presidential race too.

3. War involving the United States in a big way, similar to an Iraq or Afghanistan War.

>>16711734
'Year End' is normally when the repo market needs bailing out the most to try and pretend it is doing fine.

Though by offering $500b more the banks will see the writing on the wall and begin to use that up quickly in a desperate attempt to try and fix things which will quicken the crash.

By year end 2020 they will need more money and it's up to the feds if they want to drag the financial crash into 2021 or simply let it happen around December 2020.

>>16713228
> so I have absolutely no idea how to prepare

> Stock Supplies;
Ensure you have enough food, drinks, supplies, etc... to last you roughly 3-6 months. If capitalism starts to collapse then expect prices to increase faster than you'll be able to afford and widespread lack of stock due to production decreasing due to workers rage quitting the failing industry.

If it's a nothing burger and you have just got 3-6 months spare shopping at a price that would be cheaper than if you brought it later in the year.

> Invest
Ensure any money you do have is not stored in banks, but stored in an asset that is possible for you to gain from - Stock and Crpyto work assuming the payment methods are not connected to the banking industry.

You are unlikely to beat the hyper inflation rate though, so be advised this is not a solution but an attempt to limit the impact if they essentially do the same thing they did last time and/or simply 'erase' the debt behind the scenes as a method of keeping capitalism going.

> Keep up moral
It's important to not let yourself get depressed, a financial collapse is an opportunity the same way a 'dip' or 'low' is in stocks or crypto. It's a system that was destined to fail and we all know that, so being aware that it will fail is a good thing - you are already several steps past normies who are in denial that it cannot happen twice and you have experienced this before.

TLDR;
A financial crash will happen, it is just a question of when. So begin preparing immediately.

>>16714848
Continuing on from this, chances are the next financial crash would be in December - January.

The winter months are ideal for a variety of reasons;

1) These are normally the most consoomer driven months and regardless of income, expenditure is always higher this time of year with bills, shopping and gift giving.
2) The winter months, with hyperinflation, would result in the deaths of elderly and poor allowing the banks to sieze the assets and finances they have in an attempt to stay afloat.
3) 'Year End' occurs

>>16714848
>>16714868

I really don't see hyper inflation of prices being possible now unless China or the Middle East repudiates the US dollar.

The last inflationary period for the dollar was the 1970s, and that was due to the OPEC embargo, which itself was due to the West's support for Israel in the 1973 war.

The monetary expansion isn't itself inflationary for living costs. Certainly for assets, but not living costs.

>>16713214
lol you dumb mutt even gold crashes in a financial breakdown.

>>16711831
The recession is still happening. FED is desperate for inflation. Low wages and high costs of living are keeping inflation down. Don't believe the media or jobs reports. The poor are being kept silent.

>>16715067

Holding physical gold is the opt-out of the monetary system

In deflation, you actually want to be in the monetary system because the national currency appreciates in value relative to prices.

Gold is really only worthwhile if you think inflation is on the way, which is why someone like Peter Schiff thumps his fist on the table about it.

>>16715078

>Low wages and high costs of living are keeping inflation down.

Low wages, sure.

High cost of living? Retarded. If there was high costs of living, it would be in the inflation numbers.

Sure, those numbers are rigged, but even then they still track actual prices of electronics, food, etc etc. The prices of those are cheaper than they've ever been.

What are keeping prices down is;

1. Offshoring jobs, allowing for services and products to be imported into the USA cheaper than what could be produced domestically.
2. Massive supply of illegal and legal labour in the USA mean that what can't be imported is now done domestically by their "American" cousins.
3. Technology advances and automation.
4. Energy prices are historically below average. Especially oil.

i'm so tired of our banking system constantly being manipulated to cushion the consequences of people being retards or greedy bastards
why can't it just work normal for the people who actually save and spend what they have and tell everyone else "tough shit"

>>16715106
because of socialism

>>16711734
Recession starts by July 2020
Digits confirm

>>16715213

>>16714784
Thanks, son.

>>16712281
you are so naive lmao

>>16713424
>are going into the
found the newfag
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/30-year-old-boomer

>>16711734
>>16711750
>>16711786
>>16711787
>>16713214

>>16713214
Crypto will go to the moon

yeah, no. Crypto is not a hard asset, stop deluding yourself. buy physical gold if you're true to your intentions.

>>16714955

>unless China or the Middle East repudiates the US dollar.

it's happening right now anon. both bugmen and russians have been hoarding gold like never before and trying to leave dollars out of international transactions.

>>16715078
this

imho, things will keep going like this (stocks going up, repo market being bailed overnight by the fed) for at least two more years. If we have a crash, they'll put it on trump's hands, but only near the end of his second term.

>>16715218
smart anon
we are at the end of the market cycle anyway, there is almost no money left to be taken out there
even recession is still not imminent, it is safer to start exiting long positions
but once us unemployment starts growing, press the fucking sell button as fast as you can, cause we are heading for a 50/60% correction

>>16712688

based Fed pumping my stonks. Crypto fags continue to lose.

>>16715747
I agree with you. What are you doing with your cash then? I'm torn in between taking it out and buying asian stocks.

>>16715747
yeah wtf do I do with my savings sitting in a bank. Buy a farm? but it under my matress? or just shut my eyes and buy rice and beans.

>>16711734
source

>>16713214
crypto gets taxed, has virtually no adoption above the black marketplace, and has wildly fluctuating prices

it staggers the imagination to believe that money will be dumped into once an economic downturn hits

>>16716827
Once usa fails black market takes over

>>16715700
ok boomer

>>16711831
This is delicious boomerbull cope

Post your SPY put loss, you wastes of human space

>>16711734
the issue is that this money probably isn't going into US banks
the most likely systematic important bank on the verge of failure is deutsche bank, they got greedy and got neckdeep into interest rate swaps and they alone are now in the hole for around 10 times germanies gdp
the repo problems were occuring because US banks saw this failure ahead oftime and stopped lending to other banks to avoid exposure but most US banks are going to come out ahead of this crisis
when this blows the eu and the euro is finished and you are going to see massive capital flight out of the euro into the usd and what is the perfect vehicle to accomplish this capital flight
yep you guessed it bitcoin on a us exchange
the us authorities are fully incentivized to allow for unhindered crypto operations as this will suck europe dry and keep them in the game for a while longer, the eu doens't have the police state enforcement necessary to block crypto
for a few months everything in europe is going to be on firesale before the rest of the world is going into recession
gold will protect your purchasing power but it cannot be the trade vehicle like bitcoin can be

You all are a bunch of fucking idiots...

>Markets Crash Crypto going to 100k BTC
Let me move all my cash into internet funny money that already got tuliped... yes that’s where the smart money is going... in 1 day 2 or 3 whales could & would tank you faggots to cash out before you know what happens... Pyramid scheme (crypto)

>Read what the 2nd definition of recession is in the dictionary, not Wikipedia
A recession also when the debtor takes back from / calls their loans due... Why do you fucks think banks LOVE giving you max leverage on any equity on any assets you have? Because they know 75% of you will max it out when the good times roll and will be absolutely fucked when credit dries up in a recession(when they take back from you) so you can’t take debt for bridge/gap funding for debt service(good times) and they will scoop your shit back up for pennies on the dollar..

>Why do you dumbfucks think EVERY recession has been a “Oops banks fucked up again”

>>16717477
>Pyramid scheme (crypto)

>Thinking a recession isn't bullish for utility tokens

Every company will be looking for ways to trim the fat and DLT is about ready for commercial adoption. It's gonna be a hell of a ride.

>>16711831
>just a little recession

>>16711734
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FOywhOUZD04

>>16717576
Where do you think the value of shitcoins is??? What stability is in a “commodity” that goes from 18k two years ago down to 3k like a year ago back up to 10k six months ago back down to 6k like a month ago... how can you not see the Pyramid Scheme orchestrated? They keep taking profits & buying back yo-yo’in the price while they make buckets of cash while you wait to moon... they are playing you how investment banks & hedge funds do to the Dow daily...

Can you move markets with $100 million dollar buys? Maybe by a .5% but they can collude and move 20% any given day with trillions at their fingertips... That explains Crypto Pryamid my friend, they can wake up tomorrow & cash out whenever they feel like exit scamming this shit within a hour or less at maybe a 10% loss and they still take 90% of whatever the market share is while you post red wojaks

Is Quant a shitcoin?

/biz/ does not understand the concept of nominal gains versus real gains

This next depression is going to be hyperinflationary, we are on course to repeat what Venezuela did. This will create an illusion that stocks are going up, but in reality the value of the stocks will drop in equivalent purchasing power.The average retail investor and maybe a few wall street banks will think their portfolio is going up when in reality its losing several percentage points a year in value compared to inflation.

>>16715097
>High cost of living? Retarded. If there was high costs of living, it would be in the inflation numbers.

House prices(you know the place you need to live in) are all not included in the CPI or are understated. Also inflation factors in "hedonic adjustments", so if the product "improves" (by whatever subjective measurement economists uses) it causes inflation numbers to go down. So for example if your using LED lights instead of incandescent lights, the economist claims that's a "hedonic improvement" even though many people would argue incandescent light bulbs are better than LEDs.

The crux of the matter is inflation numbers are basically a sham.

The only thing not going up are wages for people below the director level in companies. If you're in a supervisory role your wages have gone up possibly faster than inflation. If your compensation is tied to stock options like most C-level executives/senior managers then you've made millions whereas in the past you might have made only 300k/year.

https://chapwoodindex.com