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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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16222146 No.16222146 [Reply] [Original]

My money's on the housing market again.

>> No.16222158

failure of the EU, Euro , and Deutsche Bank.

>> No.16222160

Lol roll the dice, everything's a bubble

>> No.16222183

The move away from oil will cause a big crash if the US is still on the petrodollar system.

Unless the US moves back to the gold standard or moves to a digital currency.

>> No.16222191

>>16222146
It's going to start with economic stagnation as central banks exhaust all instruments to no avail
then:
student debt
housing market
index funds
european bank failure resulting in worldwide bank runs
currency failure

we are probably returning to an agrarian society

>> No.16222193

>>16222183
This. the erosion of the USD reserve currency status is causing the US to need to fund its own deficits. You are seeing this now in repo markets. The fed is currently printing the deficit.

>> No.16222196

looks like the most likely candidate rn is Deutsche Bank, but it could be:

defualt of one of the PIGS (portugal italy greece spain)

Chinese bank failure (lots are happening right now)

Corporate Debt market implosion in the US

municipal debt market implosion in america

Mass student loan debt defaults in America

Federal reserve not cutting rates when the market expects it to, or stopping their easing

>>16222160

this, once anything happens, all the other above dominos will fall and more

>> No.16222210

>>16222146
My fat dick.

>> No.16222221

>>16222146

The US will be the last man standing. Global capital flight will all end up in US markets. US Treasuries will be safe for another two years. Stay away from all other bonds. An inflationary cycle will begin in January.

Stocks and gold are both going to rise simultaneously.

Don't get out of the market until the DOW is at least at 33,000. Bitcoin might also begin another climb as global capital flight intensifies next year. Expect further deflation and volatility until the end of this year. It is a buying opportunity.

OP is right...the wheels are going to come off the bus, but it is going to be a sovereign debt and bond crisis centered in Europe...expect another emergency bretton woods type meeting in the next 4 years.

Europe's failure to have a common debt (as opposed to the current situation in which each country has it's own debt) coupled with a strong dollar is going to be the death knell of the Euro.

>> No.16222223
File: 135 KB, 1200x675, ted_kaczynski_harvard_g-594372140.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16222223

>>16222191
>we are probably returning to an agrarian society
we /kaczynski/ now

>> No.16222228

doomers truly are the stupidest people. Absolutely none of you know what your talking about

>> No.16222233

>>16222228
No one ITT claimed this as an inevitability this is all just speculation.

>> No.16222246

>>16222146
is the end point of capitalism just bubbles? it seems like capitalism tends to force people into "make your money while you can" mentality on ever shorter/faster time-frames. if you look at the economy today, I think very few people actually still believe in "corporate vision", "sustainability", "long-term projects" etc. whether it's the CEO or the janitor. Everyone has seemingly assumed that cynical "how can I turn this given situation into my maximum profit or else someone else who is doing that will screw me" position. It's quite impossible to build a sustainable economy when all economic agents have that mentality.

>> No.16222267

>>16222146
Housing market will cause American market collapse (incidentally this will unironically be because of incels and the burgeoning divorce rate / problems between men and women) at the same time the second wave of cryptocurrency begins to show value as its integrated on zoomer products trying to edge out the ridiculously crowded entertainment markets. Flight to alternative markets will drive the first true real depression since 1929, most of America will become desperate for basic necessities.

This is also because China will make aggressive moves during this time to trigger further collapse, even at its own expense, in the first ever massive economic act of warfare (of course it will only be called this in retrospect.)

A new class of citizens will emerge in the decimated western world who held crypto, forming some kind of loose corporate alliance against an emergent east.

Go ahead and call me retarded, I hope you look back on this post and cry.

>> No.16222279

>>16222222

>> No.16222280

>>16222228
The wise response is to always be prepared just in case shit hits the fan. Always have something ready to go for all scenarios whether a financial crisis strikes or the roof comes off your house.

>> No.16222285

>>16222246
>Everyone has seemingly assumed that cynical "how can I turn this given situation into my maximum profit or else someone else who is doing that will screw me" position.
Hasn't always been this way tho?

>> No.16222296

>>16222146
unironically Miami real estate has gone no bid and it usually leads the overall real estate collapse by a few months

>> No.16222298

>>16222246
But ultimately it is this kind of mentality that gets rewarded by capitalism/our society. Why would huge institutions care about gambling all their money when they know they will be bailed out by taxpayer money if it fails? If they don't gamble someone else will make more money than them and they'll start losing market share. Why would a rating agency give a low rating to shitty instruments when a different agency will give it a higher ranking and gain more clients? Why would a CEO care about the long-term sustainability of a business when he can do something in the short-term to maximize his bonus (he probably won't be at the company in 10 years anyways). Why would the banks allow the economy to fail when they can just print more money into it and everyone keeps their jobs and politicians are happy. Everybody takes a short-cut until the short-cuts are exhausted and the whole thing collapses.

>> No.16222305

>>16222267
kek china is going to be hurt the most in collapse. They are leveraged up to obscene levels. This will cascade through australia and canadas housing markets.

>> No.16222316

>>16222305
Difference is China can afford to kick back their progress 50 years and go back to 90% peasant farming, if anything it would benefit their loose control over certain provinces.

>> No.16222333

>>16222146
Magic the gathering cards.

>> No.16222343

>>16222316
Wrong, the reason the chinese tolerate the CCP is because the CCP has made them rich(compared to where they were) and lifted them out of agrarian society. If china has to go back to that the CCP will be crushed in a violent revolution.

>> No.16222349

im going to say equities, specifically index funds

the stock market has become a meme with everybody from 16 year olds to 85 year olds dumping money into the infinite money machine. Doesn't matter how high or low they buy, everybody believes they'll be rich through it. Im not saying some doomsday stocks will hit zero shit, but if you pull up the chart we haven't had a real correction akin 2002 or 2009 in over 10 years now. We're due for it

meanwhile the fed has begun QE87 again and is pumping the market like there is no tomorrow. I don't really blame them, but now we are starting to see huge divergence between individual stocks and index funds. The big names are carrying us forward, while 80% of the rest of stocks are dead in the water. This isn't sustainable. The feds money is the only thing keeping this pump show going. Wait for the interest rate cut euphoria to wear off. This market will be like a junkie waiting for the next hit from daddy Powell

I still think we are already in a recession, next months manufacturing PMI should confirm it. Consumer confidence won't be affected until after the new year, unemployment lags by like 6 months so it should be disregarded. The short VIX trade is reaching record proportions, with everybody and their mom shorting volatility, and the smart money to dumb money ratio is reaching an extreme. We know earnings are guiding lower next Q and we already saw horrendous manufacturing numbers last month

Put two and two together and you're about to see retail get the rug swept from under them

I say we rally until 2020, that's where it'll really begin. Trump has been busting his ass off to ensure the spoo gets high as possible, he is even willing to go back on his tariff talks. He knows shit will hit the fan next year and just wants to get re-elected

Anyway, im putting my money where my mouth is. I think the spoo tops at 315 this year and I have already begun to build my short, I am playing with 110kish total, + margin

>> No.16222352

>>16222343
The game has changed, the technology is different than it was in 1917. We're ready for Hegemony and China knows it. You should be more afraid than you are.

>> No.16222360

>>16222349
based and burrypilled

>> No.16222367

>>16222349
You are going to lose a lot of money.

>> No.16222369

>>16222349
Check out this real vision video where they address the scam that is ETFs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpk3triMLZQ

>> No.16222376

>>16222352
Who is we?

>> No.16222378

There will never be another "crash".

>> No.16222393

>>16222349
good post.

>> No.16222395
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16222395

>>16222378
I hope you're wrong.. if they can keep this going.. damn.

>inb4 The wojack name tag is spelled backwards, and thus faces forwards in the reflection.

>> No.16222399

>>16222285
to an extent. I would argue that this was not always the situation based on two premises:

1. the further you go into history, the more different factors come into play. for example, I am sure that the majority of population was not always cynical in the past, but this is cleary the case today. the further you go back, the more strongly things like religion, personal faith, superstition, old interpersonal systems based on reciprocity rather than miniscule details of a bloated judicial system and law play a part. of course there were a number of pragmatists throughout history who were cynical and machiavellian, but largely the cost to be so, especially if you were not already coming from high social standing was much higher. basically in the past I think society did a better job of ostracizing sociopathic pursuers of personal gain and made it much more costly to do that kind of thing. instead, then while this might have been reserved to scheming dynastic monarchs, parts of the religious elite (who at least on paper still promoted solid, socially constructive values to plebs), local warlords etc., today we all know silenty that one is expected to be a sociopathic seeker of personal gain. this is the basic function our society expects, not just of its elite but even of the common plebs. that's the main difference.

2. technology. in the past whatever bubble might exist would implode on vastly smaller scales, simply due to available technology. the world was much more localized.

>> No.16222412

>>16222146
I expect the central banks of the world to try to do what the bank of Japan did and increase their balance sheets to greater than GDP thereby causing insane amounts of inflation and stagnation. Of course once Japan fails then that is going to cause a worldwide domino effect of sovereign nation states failing left and right. At that point its back to the barbaric metal as Keynes called it as there will be simply no other alternatives left than to go back to some semblance of a standard.

>> No.16222424

>>16222376
The human race, same reason I capitalized hegemony. The ability to exert force at range is one of the few technologies in constant R&D and it will hit a point where further development is functionally pointless.

>> No.16222444

>>16222378
possible if automation either provides sufficient excess or is subsidized by UBI soon enough. and if anything close to generalized AI is on the horizon, we could be mooning as a species as we speak, these are exciting times.

>> No.16222449
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16222449

>>16222399
>basically in the past I think society did a better job of ostracizing sociopathic pursuers of personal gain
lol what? I guess it depends how far back in history you're talking but the cutthroats and sociopaths have been rising to the top of the food chain in western society as early as the 18th century.

>> No.16222455
File: 94 KB, 2321x1233, Screenshot_2019-11-12 DKB Interactive Stock Chart DKB Stock - Yahoo Finance.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16222455

>>16222146
>>16222158
To all /biz/lets saying Deutsche Bank:
Just a friendly reminder that Deutsche Bank is fine
picrelated (1/2)

>> No.16222468
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16222468

>>16222455
picrelated (2/2)

>> No.16222497
File: 69 KB, 654x528, dkt.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16222497

>>16222455
>>16222468
fucking kek
Obviously you have no fucking clue what that ticker is, brainlet

>> No.16222529

>>16222497
Explain, and also explain how you cope with the fact that time proves you wrong again and again?

>> No.16222542

>>16222449
sociopaths have always been rising to the top of society. the point I'm making is that never has sociopathy and cynicism been so openly and widely promoted and even expected from common population as today.

>> No.16222626

Argentina

>> No.16222633
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16222633

>>16222349

I don't want to look dumb when/if the market decides to tank from this post, but according to my thesis the only way to have a "santa rally" (I think we do have one this year) is for us to pull back first, which I expect to happen. I think we see the 292-294 area, possibly testing the daily 200 and then melting up through the holidays. Some VIX calls, long miners, short crude, and some strategic stock shorts are my courses of action while we get a decent pull back. At that point i'll buy hand over fist until the new year

>> No.16222654

>>16222424
>The human race
Think you have species confused with race m8.

>> No.16222677

A housing crash and consumer spending crash, based upon a generation of people who can barely afford to keep a roof over their head.

> everyone under 35

>> No.16222750

>>16222146
it's gonna stem from America

>> No.16222799

>>16222750
you mean the continent?

>> No.16222839

>>16222799
yeah, obviously. What else would I mean?

>> No.16222858
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16222858

Just tell me where the inflation has gone and there it is.

>> No.16222876

>>16222222

>> No.16222878
File: 26 KB, 713x616, 1570417493750.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16222878

>>16222146

What should I do to protect myself from this? Serious question. I'm already seeing a downturn in a lot of things and places right now.

>> No.16222880

>>16222146
everything is a bubble right now including link

>> No.16223010

>>16222878
non-correlated assets

>> No.16223028

>>16222468
>>16222455
The U.S taxpayers bailed out the Euro banks during the last recession. Do they not teach you this in school?

>> No.16223083

>>16223028
kek this meme
>muh taxpayers bailout
money is created ex nihilo, numbers on a digital screen

>> No.16223238
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16223238

>>16222455
>>16222468
Pic related

>> No.16223288

>>16222298
>Government bails out failing businesses
>We want MORE government!

Much brain power. The problem is the state, stupid.

>> No.16223335
File: 13 KB, 943x138, Screenshot_2019-10-30 Pending Home Sales Surprise, Biggest Annual Gain Since 2015.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16223335

>>16223238
>Zerohedge
I screenshotted the most truthful and honest Zerohedge comment ever.
Pic so very related.

>> No.16223387

>>16222222
this get will spark the economic collapse

>> No.16223407

>>16222146
Blacked.com

>> No.16223505
File: 673 KB, 1280x851, Little Lamb.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16223505

>>16222228
Nah brah shits gon' be biblical

>> No.16223535

Auto loans then student debt and housing tanks big time 60%+ boomers are so fucked

>> No.16223720

>>16222228
Why ignore the glaring problems of the economy?

>> No.16223735

>>16222146
People discovering that the flat earth theory is actually true

>> No.16223755

>>16223535
>Auto loans
total debt incresing, nothing happened so far
auto loan delinquincies increasing, still nothing happened so far
>student loans
total debt incresing, nothing happened so far
>housing market
regional, regional, regional
overall still increasing y/y

the (((system))) just keeps on running along

>> No.16223770

>>16223755
>inb4 typo
english isn't my first language

>> No.16223792
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16223792

>>16222455
>>16222468
>DB shills not even using the DB ticker
Absolute state of you damage controllers

>> No.16223802
File: 39 KB, 443x692, good things increasing.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16223802

>>16222228
It's true, they don't know the facts>>16222280
This poster in particular is merely succumbing to the human inbuilt negativity bias.
Not thinking; feeling. Its fact-free fearfulness.
Instead: Aim for the TRUTH, backed by facts, logic, and evidence.

>> No.16223807

index funds overinvesting in trash equities. they'll be so interconnected that once a few bite the curb, it'll drag the rest down the shitter.

Like CMOs in the sub prime crisis; history repeats itself.

>> No.16223828

>>16222858
hold the fuck on, what is this bs in 2008-10

Did the US government fucking PRINT money to bail those fuckers out? And then got addicted to printing???

>> No.16223859
File: 65 KB, 215x300, 1569580917529.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16223859

>>16223792
What damage? Where is it?
DXB and DKT are indicative for
>the markets trust in Deutsche Bank to be able to service their debt
>the ability of Deutsche Bank to pay out dividends to their shareholders from their operating business
Now if DXB and DKT would suddenly plummet, then we can talk.

>> No.16224348

>>16222146
corporate debt/bonds...a lot of companies survived on cheap debt the last 10 years. As interest rates continue to go up companies will be refinancing into rates 100-300% higher. https://twitter.com/TaviCosta
This guy has a lot of good ideas too

>> No.16224379

Dailies reminder, there will be no crash

>> No.16224421

>>16224348
Bookmarked, thanks.

>> No.16224903

>>16223859
The point is Germany will try to save DB, you can see it’s not a health bank, but I don’t think Germans and especially Germans from the former GDR will just accept blindly that the government takes their money to bail out a bank in a horrible state.You can already see how disenfranchised the citizens of the former GDR are by looking at the election results. So when Deutsche Bank is in need of saving and the German goverment of course does so I except civil unrest in Germany. People are not going to take this for granted.

>> No.16224906

>>16222146
Mass corruption

>> No.16224944

>>16222146
I'm guessing Housing market due to failing foreign banks so foreign owners need to try to sell their properties into USD/stocks which will be seen by smart money which will hold off on selling stocks low/buying houses high causing foreigners to compete against themselves in a seller's market

>> No.16225015

>>16222196
Mass student loan defaults in America aren't a thing my man.
The debt burden would be passed to the government in the case of bankruptcy (which is tough) and, most likely, wage garnishments.

Municipal debt, maybe. Not Corporate debt, most likely.
China is actually the most plausible of all of them. Now THAT might cause a chain reaction that would lead to US corporate default.
As a westerner, you should be considering Chinese bonds as junk bonds anyway.

>> No.16225055

>i watched "the big short"
the thread

>> No.16225074

>>16223828
good evening, zoomer.

>> No.16225088

>>16222146
unfunded local government liabilities (boomer pensions)

>> No.16225094

>>16222246
Not exactly, i agree mostly with marx's claim that capitalism eventually turns itself into socialism.
Whats "bubble like" is the financial arms race. Since theres basically no stops on financialisation the world has devolved into a spiral of lowest common denominator just to stay afloat in the short run. However thia state of affairs is another extension of the nation state arms race. In 1900 it was battleships, in 1950 it was nukes and now its banks.

>> No.16225104

>>16222183
>The move away from oil will cause a big crash if the US is still on the petrodollar system.
>Unless the US moves back to the gold standard or moves to a digital currency.
why will this cause a big crash?
What if they won't ever move from petrodollar?
>>16222191
timeframe for all thisto happen?
Why you say index fund bubble?
everybody's gonna leave their funds on index funds cause they are diversified and can yeild money and they's gonna hold
>>16222191
>student debt
why bubble here?
>>16222191
>european bank failure resulting in worldwide bank runs
USA banks and EU banks are 2 separate things
>>16222191
>currency failure
why? QE can go on forever. They could print forever money
>>16222191
>we are probably returning to an agrarian society
this is when you know that you are memeing

>>16222196
>Corporate Debt market implosion in the US
already happened in 2008
>>16222196
>Mass student loan debt defaults in America
it's not big enough to cause recession

>> No.16225112

>>16222146
Index funds. Those things are so inflated.

>> No.16225146

>>16222221
>Stocks and gold are both going to rise simultaneously.
why?
>>16222221
>Europe's failure to have a common debt (as opposed to the current situation in which each country has it's own debt) coupled with a strong dollar is going to be the death knell of the Euro.
who cares about Euro?
>>16222349
>meanwhile the fed has begun QE87 again and is pumping the market like there is no tomorrow
this is good for stocks because we're gonna pump with all that printed money

>> No.16225209

>>16222349
There is literally nothing wrong with index ETF investing from an individual investor standpoint willing to weather economic downturn.
That's almost like saying Mutual Funds are not good.

What isn't good, is the amount of index funds chasing the biggest companies artificially inflating their value. That's the only bad thing that I can really think of.

>> No.16225244

>>16225112
This is only true if you are using index funds for short to mid-term profit, which is stupid anyway.

>> No.16225250

>>16225146
Europeans? Maybe because with buy our food with Euro’s

>> No.16225270

>>16223807
>investing in trash equities
That's not true.
They are artificially inflating the value of GOOD equities. That's it. And it's really not that big of a problem

>> No.16225336

overall debt is at unprecedented levels, everywhere. countries, corporate debt, household debt, everything is leveraged

ETFs hold four trillion dollars

interest rates at historic lows, central banks have very few options if a recession actually starts

since the last time it all started in the US housing market, this time it is going to be something in emerging markets.probably some ETF with emerging market assets will go under and it starts from there

>> No.16225348

>>16225270
gonna be fun when 100 ETFs all try to sell the same stock because of redemptions

>> No.16225409

>>16225348
OK, but how is that going to effect the long-term investor who has no knowledge of the market, doesn't care and is willing to weather, or both?

>> No.16225448

>>16223802
>Good things increasing
>Women's right to vote
Hypergamy on a massive scale collapses social order
>Science: Scholarly articles published per year
Of which more than ever are non replicable and basically pure propaganda to get more funding
>New Music
Twerking nigger trash
>Democracy
A scheme and basically just rule of mass media. We were better of under Monarchies.

>> No.16225462

zombiefication of the whole european economy. it's estimated that about 12% of all companies only survive because of low interest rates and economic growth.

take away one thing and it will start to snowball. interest rates wont increase that's why they try everything to stimulate the economy further. any enduring recession will become a depression very fast.

we are in a situation where if one thing fails it will drag everything with it.
kicking the can further wont work forever and i can even tell you when it's definitly over.

germany will vote in 2021, italy will vote in 2022, france in 2023. if it doesnt end economically it will end politically.

all far right parties promote an euro exit. all three countries will get very strong far right parties (and governments). not just because of immigration but because of exploding costs of living.

>> No.16225494

>>16222191
>we are probably returning to an agrarian society
feels bad to be a city slicker
I'm probably going to starve to death

>> No.16225513

>>16222146
WeWork and SoftBank are going to bring down the world economy. Screenshot this.

>> No.16225546

>>16222349
>but now we are starting to see huge divergence between individual stocks and index funds. The big names are carrying us forward, while 80% of the rest of stocks are dead in the water
this is the Pareto law and it applies to everything in life nigga. It's not a ''muh bubble'' nigga

>> No.16225568

>>16223807
>index funds overinvesting in trash equities
beside this
If the stock's market collapses then also the index funds will collapse

>> No.16225600

>>16222146
Never forget the golden rule: if the general population thinks that we're about to have the second depression, we're very likely reaching an ATH soon enough. And vice versa, if the general population capitulates after seeing the new ATH and claims that crashes are a thing of the past, we're definitely crashing soon enough.
As of right now, everyone is bracing for the depression and every media outlet is blasting about it coming in 2020/21, so draw your own conclusions

>> No.16225625

>>16225600
lol general population was thinking that for all of 2 seconds last month and now its back to muh drumpf hating. Listen boomer, your generation had a good run, you might not have been smart enough to make any money off the market but some of your peers made a fuckton, but the partys over boomie. its gonna crash, nobody wants to pay out your pension dumbfuck. at least not with usd worth anything

>> No.16225735

>>16225462
>germany will vote in 2021, [...] all far right parties promote an euro exit. all three countries will get very strong far right parties (and governments).
Not going to happen in this election cycle. We will get a CDU/SPD/FDP/Grüne/Linke coalition before anyone works with the AfD.
Then this government will collapse (2022-2023) and maybe then afd will have a majority.
My bet is on Italy.

>> No.16225821

>>16224348
>corporate debt/bonds...a lot of companies survived on cheap debt the last 10 years
what are these stocks?

>> No.16225835

ecological problems and food scarcity

not even memeing. strap in boys, the next one is going to actually be civilization ending.

>> No.16225842

>>16225625
>partys over boomie. its gonna crash
>>16225600
>if the general population thinks that we're about to have the second depression, we're very likely reaching an ATH soon enough.
why does this happen? Every single time?

>> No.16225843

>>16222146
Car market because people don't have houses after the last crash

>> No.16225875

>>16225842
Because this time also happens to coincide with the largest retirement cash out ever. retirement across the spectrum is up hundreds of percents the past couple years and wont slow back down until 2023. You really think the boomers can cash out just like that? Sapping fucking trillions from the markets without cratering prices? this time is different because its the end for the generation of retards who were able to say "yep its just gonna go back up sippppp", now it actually crashes and everyone knows it. Japan still is like 40% down from NIKKIE all time highs and aging population has most certainly played a part.

>> No.16225934

>>16222267
>A new class of citizens will emerge in the decimated western world who held crypto, forming some kind of loose corporate alliance against an emergent east.
Based post. Where will this loose alliance actually live? Something like a Citadel?

>> No.16225955

>>16222146
crashes on their own usually dont cause much problems unless they are financed with leverage aka. debt. so without doing any proper research my guess would be
>us student loan market (too many students taking up loans for studies that will never yield a return)
>us or eu stock market which is fueled by interest rate cuts instead of actual economic performance

also my bet is that china will be the big winner in all this and might overtake the us as world power in a few decades

>inb4 just guesses
>inb4 nobody knows what will happen
>inb4 everything priced in already

>> No.16226023
File: 125 KB, 750x823, 1572330315884.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16226023

>>16222455
>>16222468
>muh utterly nonsense

>> No.16226025

>>16225955
>in a few decades

Try within a couple of years, even India will be overtaking the US within the next 10 years.

>> No.16226035

>>16226025
i dont think such power distributions can change that fast desu. but what do i know

>> No.16226146

>>16223755
>t. Retard

>> No.16226363

>>16225104
How old are you ? 15 ?

First point:
Look at the amount of money created since its creation and then between 2008 and 2016....

Second point:
Timeframe - until 2022

Third point: Student Debt
Impossible to pay back with that kind of inflation

Fourth Point:
US banks and EU banks are heavily interconnected

Fifth Point:
QE can't continue, look at the fall of the Udssr, at one point money is worthless, recent example: Venezuela

Sixt point:
A bank crash will stop all economey for at least 1-2 quaters, without supply, electricity or else. agriculture is the only thing which saves us

Seventh Point:
Debt is now a multitude of 2008

8th Point
Thats why they call it the everything bubble....

>> No.16226398

>>16222183
Wtf are you even blabbering? Is you economic knowledge memetic-only?

>> No.16226420

>>16222146
Tech

>> No.16226467

>>16226025
If Trump wins 2020 the US will stay on top longer than 10 years. Not because Trump himself is a genius but because he is opposed to central planning, has a base that actually goes out and does things (cleaning Baltimore and LA instead of rioting for example), and actually stands up to trading partners like China and NATO instead of rolling over.

Trump uses capitalism, not socialism to MAGA.

>> No.16226475

>>16222146
Listen up you faggots: usd is wanted more and more, so the US monetary system is the most "stable". On the other hand the EU one is going to get rekt pretty bad. A sign is the selection of a politician as the next central banker instead of a banker. All the instruments used in EU don't work anymore. They have to lower interest rates even more, but this will be bad nonetheless, and the only option will be a political intervention, aka public spending. Public spending in countries hugely indebt and with a massive aging population and big welfare system, where the taxation is beyond sustainable. All this is the point of no return. For what concern DB, it can always be saved with public money, and this is the problem. That's why DB take shitty decisions, and that's why they lend money to people other reputable banks wouldn't touch even with a ten feet pole.

>> No.16226523

>>16222424
unless its traveling at the speed of light, there is room for improvement

>> No.16226540
File: 15 KB, 250x248, 1524868693336.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16226540

>>16226025
Lmfao fuck off Rakesh. Fucking faggot

>> No.16226621

>>16222146
dem programz

>> No.16226628

>>16225600
im not even sure how the stock markets are even correlated to the "general population" anymore. i cant even figure out who the "general population" is

>> No.16226849

>>16225735
yes germany is not the weakest link here, but still 2 years to go and erdogan could launch a new migration wave any time.

i bet ony italy too. salvini will be elected next.
le pen has very good chances to win in france, but not as certain as salvini

>> No.16227589

>>16226025
Poo in the Loo

>> No.16228030
File: 698 KB, 1200x900, cotd-missed-days.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16228030

>>16222349

t. market timing poormoid

>> No.16228046

>>16226363

inflation reduces the real value of debt you absolute brainlet

>> No.16228088

>>16225462
>all far right parties promote an euro exit.

no. the benefits of the EU have already reached even the densest of all far right minds and only ultra right parties like the Greek nationalists promote an euro exit. have a look at the manifestos.

>> No.16228365
File: 2.24 MB, 695x392, 1505999327994.gif [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16228365

>>16222146

There's a lot of different sectors fucking up at once.

Housing with it's luxury market fixation.

Auto with it's shitty loan fiasco.

Financial institutions like JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank.

Shipping import and export.

Big tech like FB and their ilk.

Manufacturing.

Shit when it snow balls even the healthcare industry and higher education debt could be affected.

Pensions and 401ks the Boomer retirement Apocalypse. It will get worse if the the dollar is devalued and inflation happens with SS.

Shit this could make 1929 look like a fucking joke.

>> No.16228819
File: 33 KB, 820x573, putin.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16228819

>>16222146
the collapse will happen when the next US civil war starts after Trump wins next year and the lefties get so triggered that they can't accept reality any more.
we're already seeing the beginnings since several months back. remember that civil war never starts will full out armed combat.

>> No.16229035

>>16222468
Anon I... I was going to leave it at that but you are so fucking stupid. Do further research on the Deutsche bank.

>> No.16229223
File: 20 KB, 720x533, 1543804792359.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
16229223

>>16226146
>>16226023

>> No.16229238

>>16222222

>> No.16229293

>>16229035
>Do further research on the Deutsche bank.
You too please explain how you cope with the fact that observable reality keeps on contradicting the imminent prediction of doom from your research.
So far the (((System))) has been chugging along nicely even with Deutsche Banks multi quadrillion derivatives book.
Care to explain that, without using "muh taxpayer bailout"?
The (((System))) will keep moving on until maybe one day when it simply doesn't. In the meantime, generations of doomsday prophets will have come and gone and repeatedly being proven wrong time and time again.

>> No.16229678

>>16228088
not talking about EU. euro currency

>> No.16230033

>>16222221
Based and Zeihanpilled.

>> No.16230039

majority of Corporate debt exceeding investment grade paper. This would cause a one way market due to the fact the institutional firms cannot hold non-investment grade paper. 60% or so of these loans are on the border of this.

>> No.16230120

Literally nothing is real at this point so could be anything.

>> No.16230313

>>16225600
Here in europe everyone is pushing to buy stock and ETFs because saving is uncool and is getting eaten by inflation and low interest rates.

>> No.16230335

>>16222146
trump's last day as prez = doom.

>> No.16230372

Watches - Richard Mille, Audemar Piguet etc