/biz/ - Business & Finance

For people buying Microsoft: historically the largest company by market cap has subsequently underperformed the index by 5% a year.

Will Tesla go down after the weekend?
Because of "sell the news".

to this guy >>16038075
you buy options dumb-dumb, don't hold the stock lol

>>16038171
I've found selling covered calls to be consistently profitable.

>>16038278
What about married puts?

>>16038084
Damn, so this is the top? Got a source for that stat?

>>16038753

Think about it logically. If a company is the largest in the index, where can it go from there? All things being equal, it's probably close to peak expectation, earnings and so on. Mean reversion.

Studies have been done on this phenomenon.

>>16038818
Fair enough, but there is another effect that leads to the continued rise of the highest cap stock in a weighted index where the stock absorbs the greater percentage of capital as it is invested into the index. Msft has the greatest weight in the NASDAQ.

>>16038888

< Owning the largest S&P 500 stock is usually a losing proposition

>>16038727
Haven't tried it

How do I git gud at doing my taxes? Yes, I know this is not /smg/, but the rest of /biz/ is shit.

I wish to give the Feds as little of my money as I can get away with; I am not opposed to doing zany things like opening dog kennels or starting squid farms, like the giga-rich do.

>>16038910
If I started investing in 1995 (because I just turned 18 and got a sweet job) and bought MSFT because it was the largest market cap company at that moment and held on to it I would be up roughly 3600% now. If I bought SP500 in 1995 when I first started investing I would be up roughly 560% now.
So.. it's all about timing and picking the right stock, it's not like people switches from the largest market cap company every 5 years, they hold onto their investments if they still see the company as growing and profitable. We and nobody else knows if this is the roof for current tech stocks or if the roof is 100 years from now. Exxon was in the top 5 for 90 years or something

I'm not saying you're wrong, companies has a chance of vanishing after a recession/crisis. There's companies out there that were beasts before the 2008 financial crisis and is now garbage because they never recovered, meanwhile the SP500 kept on growing because one company is not what it's built on.
So what if it's more profitable for us to hold onto MSFT during our lifetime? Not to mention dividends.

>Microsoft Beats Amazon For $10B Pentagon JEDI Contract

>https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/10/25/microsoft-beats-amazon-for-10b-pentagon-jedi-contract/#767b78372e95

HAHAHAHAHA. 160$/share by Christmas confirmed.

>>16039481
Dont leave a paper trail. If there is a paper trail pay your fucking taxes

>>16039899
>JEDI contract

Soon

how's the week-end? i got some greasy mcdonalds food, shame on me

>>16040286
I've worked about half of the waking hours of the past 10 days
8-12 hours per day since last Thursday, only one day off
I'm technically not supposed to work again until Monday but we'll see

I need to just drink water and take it easy on my liver and my brain (whichever part of the brain gets fried from too much chemicals, I forget if it's the serotonin system or something else)

>>16039481
hire a tax person
give them all your information
pay your taxes

>>16038910
Suddenly I have to question NDR’s analyses. The only loser I see on that list is GE.

What I’d want to see Is the returns from buying and holding every stock once it becomes the largest in the S&P, including dividend returns or DRiP. I suspect you’d be a very rich man.

I'll start by dumping some unused cash into ETFs soon but intend to also start investing once I have a nice job.
Could anybody recommend some good ressources/tutorials for technical analysis so I don't fuck myself too hard?

>>16040735
>what if I fuck myself?
Never going to make it desu

>>16040703

Equal-weight & inverse-weight indexes outperform market cap indexes so I doubt you're correct

>>16040914
But we’re not talking about the top 10 market cap or whatever, we’re talking about the single largest.

>>16038818
>Studies have been done
Nice argument bro

>>16038910
Pretty sure that the outperformance here is due to survival bias. If you pick the largest companies now, and invested only in those 30 years ago with that future info in mind, of course you would outperform.

>>16038727
>What about married puts?
Never marry your puts. They will get bored and divorce rape you.

>>16040286
mgdonals chan thanks you for your patronage

>>16041135
Holy shit...
The Wendy’s VN girls thighs are much juicier though.

>>16040825
Yolo everything at once in options, is that what you suggest?

>>16038818
>studies have been done
[citation needed]

>>16041135
yes yes..., now that i think of maybe is should have requested a discount for that greasy junk(if not carbage) food meal, after all im a co-owner of the international mega-chain or co-co-owner thru index fund that holds nyse:mcd accordingly. so when you see a guy pulling in to drive thru, he is basically handing money to you! ha!

>>16038091
bump

>>16041612
It depends on whether there is more value in squeezing the remaining short sellers. Eventually there will be a quick 50%+ retrace of this spike up, then things will settle in to a holding pattern for a bit before probably resuming rising trend due to the fundamental strength implied by the earnings beat.

God damn it /smg/, why didn’t you tell me there was an ATVI leak of Diablo 4?!

That will get some hype...

Here's a redpill for you folks. AT&T used to have the idiotic, redundant name American Telephone and Telephone. T to $0 EOY.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/mark-phelan/2019/10/26/smart-glass-windows-film-spd/4091585002/

Buy REFR

>>16041842
This fact is so embarassing to AT&T that they've tried to scrub all memory of it. This name is not even mentioned on their Wikipedia article. Nevertheless, they cannot change the past, and their chickens will come home to roost.

>>16041794
the origiinal rumor was diablo2 remastered and diablo4 at blizzcon, that was already 2 weeks ago so early buyers rushed in

diablo franchise is still bigger than warcraft and related games, it's blizzard number one hit by far people go crazy anything related to diablo

>>16041869
>>16041842
telegraph
(I have old Southwestern Bell corporate propaganda hanging on my walls right now)

www.ccn.com/u-s-housing-market-crash-officially-here/
More and more cracks are starting to show...are you ready?

>>16041871
Of course. I’d be tempted to buy both and I don’t even really play vidya.

But yeah, looks like the rumor has already been bought.

>>16041842
It was American Telephone & Telegraph.

Fun fact: Telegrams are still in use.

>>16041897
How many years have you been fussing and praying for collapse?

How many more years will you continue?

>>16041890
In the 20th century after the death of the telegraph, it was indeed called "American Telephone & Telephone." You've been brainwashed.

>>16041902
Another brainwashed T zombie.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q="american+telephone+and+telephone"

>>16041862
What are some other companies in the smart glass business?
Why now?
This company is age old and didn't make it. What's different this time?
What's refr`s financial situation?
What's the thesis behind the 13% short?

>>16041638
i kinda hope it doesn't skyrocket further next week because i'm still beating myself up over not buying more when it dropped below 200 earlier this year. and i was thinking about buying more tesla this past monday due to watching a positive youtube video, had no idea the quarterly report was being released just a couple days later. i mean, skyrocketing would be a good thing for me, just that it's so typical that i decided to not buy just a few days before the increase

>>16039899
i bought amazon stocks earlier this year. still think they will do well in the future but i didn't need these news

>>16041921
a housing crash =/= stock market crash =/= recession
you can anticipate one of them without necessarily calling for another

I certainly anticipate a pull-back in housing prices in some of the most expensive boomer areas. But in a lot of other real estate markets, prices will be stable.
You have to look at who is buying and who is selling. Many boomers in the peak demographics are about done buying new houses. Many young people in peak millennial ages are starting to look at buying their first homes. So there should be a slowdown at the top end of the market, and a constant churn for cheaper properties.

>>16039611
Wow. Then again, MSFT was not the top weighted of the index during those years

>tfw gonna baghodling MCD's until it finds a bottom
Now that the market has decided the recession is cancelled, I'm worried we're going to get a recession.

Can't wait to buy vix calls at the opening on Monday! The bloodbath will be glorious ror!

>>16042470
The market is dumping Amazon, McDs, Apple, Boeing, Caterpi, etc.

That seems a compelling Bobo Bear signal to me

Put another way: if cost of living rises at 8-10% per year, if the stawks are only up 3-6% — you’re losing it just isn’t a “crash” or a “Great Depression” or a “GFC”

>>16042527
>The market is dumping Amazon, McDs, Apple, Boeing, Caterpi, etc.
Have you looked at the charts for those? And Apple is not dumping, Boeing and Caterpillar should be dumping and the market actually seems like it's done selling them off.

And amazon is in spend mode, they might as well have said "this is an investment year for us" which scares off investors, who care more about short-medium term profitablility. And then forgave them almost completely, they ended the day almost back in the black.

>Put another way: if cost of living rises at 8-10% per year, if the stawks are only up 3-6% — you’re losing
what? what does this have to do with the other statements?

>>16042527
>cost of living rises at 8-10% per year
that seems high to me
what methodology is used?

I agree with your overall idea, that bears who expect a sudden massive drop are foolish (kindest way to put it)

stock market is predictable

>>16042643
Strange attractor
>chaos
Definitely strange attractor
What do I see here?

>>16042643
>>16042666
Delivering since Anon is a faggot
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/trading-close-v-intraday/
Looks like garbage.

>>16038910
Yeah I don’t know about this. I think timing is fuckkng with the data.

Who was the largest market cap every time the market bottomed? Every time it topped? What if you bought those company and held it?

>>16042643
>merchant.jpg

>>16042514
And why is that anon

whats an alternative to degiro for europeans
fuck the no insurance shit

Can anyone explain to me what determines the share price of a stock, especially after a catalyst? I mean obviously I understand "the drug passed this phase so they go up a bunch" but i mean like, why 14.3% vs. 20.17% vs. 5.86%? How does the specific amount get determined in the pre-market shit that usually happens after some news event? How can you figure out the risk/reward of betting on some event ("okay the earnings are coming out tomorrow, or the results from the clinical trial are coming out tomorrow, etc, if it's bad news it'll go down 10% but if it's good news it should go up 20%")? Is there some sorta fundamental analysis stuff going on from the tutes that allows them to figure out how much the SP should be depending on whether the news is good or bad and by how much good/bad?

Honestly I feel like that shit is a trap and I just day trade before and after events instead of playing the events themselves (the hype and then what happens after we know the news), but I'm still curious.

>>16043327
why not go with ibkr pro? costs you 120$ per year but you can trade all global markets.

>>16043420
would rather 0 fees, £120 is a fair bit to me

>>16043433
>120 a year
>a fair bit to me

oof. here i am with $30k in biotechs dealing with what used to be $6.95 per trade and i thought *I* was poor.

>>16043449
was there any need for that?

>>16043433
120$ include the trade fees. It's just that you need to spend at least 10$ per month of fees. If you do 0 trade they charge you 10, if you do 5 trades at 1$ they charge you 5 so you have a minimum of 10$ per month.
The 0 fee are only for us stocks and usually for americans.

>>16038070
For those interested in crowdfunding - lighthouse.cash, KickIco and Pledgecamp

>>16043455
mostly that i don't understand why you're even here when you're apparently severely undercapitalized, so yes.

>>16043462
$0 fees on AMTD are pretty fucking sweet not gonna lie, suddenly scalping strategies have become extremely lucrative for me. i usually scale out 1/2 of my position at a certain point so i basically had to always be factoring in around $20 for every trade when considering my risk, so much easier without that now.

>>16043501
"me flexing my cringe biotech portfolio is a way of showing you how undercapitalised you are"
get some fresh air sunshine

>>16043509
lmao

>>16043501
btw dont dream, market makers wont let you scalp on low time frames. they will turn the market against you as soon as you place an order. it's "free" because you're the product.

>>16038070
>bought facebook puts
please don't let me down

>>16043547
>people on this very thread actually believe this

yeah im sure it's a conspiracy anon not that you're bad or anything, sure. not like i haven't already been doing this successfully or anything, yeah dont dream, you keep that up my dude.

>>16043607
>I made some profitable scalping trades
no shit. I want to see you scalp and be consistently profitable.

Would it be better then to do long leaps on spy or something?

>>16043693
the hard part is figuring out the system that you trade by in the first place, took me months of effort up-front with a ton of backtesting and forwardtesting with paper trading, then finally real trading. once you have it though it's pretty easy to make 1% a day on average. trust me MM's don't give a shit about your 200 shares in ROKU or whatever when over 100k shares are being traded every minute.

clearly im not going to tell you my system though, im just telling you that it's very possible. you also need a way to find the stocks that will actually move on any given day. we're not talking like being a millionaire overnight or something, we're just talking about making like $200 a day to start.

>>16043607
>my dude

>>16042643
wut

>>16043802
>clearly im not going to tell you my system though
I know traders that have been trading for 30 years, they have all said scalping is retarded. The fact that you think we will believe you have a system is ridiculous in itself. Don't take me the wrong way, this guy >>16043547 is retarded himself if he thinks the market makers will spend billions to stop him out of a $1000 trade or however much he trades with.
Get to know a person that actually trades for a living and you'll realize that trading using levels and understanding certain setups works perfectly fine, but even with the good setup you will lose a majority of your trades.. which is why risk management is one of the most important things about trading

>>16043385
>How does the specific amount get determined in the pre-market shit that usually happens after some news event?
Here:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openingprice.asp

Now as for the general question of why a stock trades where it does, that is determined in most basic terms by the amount anyone is willing to sell it for and the amount anyone is willing to buy it for. There is book value and "fair value" but you will notice really quick that stocks can trade well above and well below these prices. Consult investopedia for definitions of book value, fair value, p/b ratio, p/e ratio, and earnings per share (eps).

>>16042643

I remember reading about the stock market being chaotic in James Gleick's book about chaos. Never really looked into it beyond that, though. Still, neat to see.

Shit, looks like the normies figured it out and I sold tooooooo much MO toooooooo damn low.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/10/25/cdc-most-people-who-died-vaping-linked-disease-used-products-containing-thc/

Fuck LCI guy for making me think I could ever get MO at $30. (Really though, fuck me for my self-doubt. The yield was nice though.)

>>16044553
LCIguy said he thought that because very soon their loan payments are gonna be huge

>>16044905
We'll see. I may still buy put protection if it runs up into earnings.

>>16044926
If we can get pod panic from deaths and loan payments hit at the same time cheapies will be INSANE. Hopefully hysteria can go crazy around the time people panic over loans. If no overlap very sad

>>16045059
Nah, that was the dip, and instead of backing up the truck all the way down, I unloaded most of my position. Very sad.

Unless of course they drop a bombshell during ER.

Based Boeing security features

Some dude here said AMRN will hit 30$ the 15th of november. What do you make of that, /biz/?

uh, guys? Guys? Guys what the fuck is this?

GUYS HELP WHAT THE FUG IS THIS?

>>16045699
Baghdadi is dead, or that’s peobably the news. Who knows..something in west Iraq happened. Did Trump find Saddams nukes??

>>16045699
AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH I NEED TO KNOW IF IT HAS TO DO WITH TRADE NEGOTIATIONS AND I NEED TO KNOW NAOW

>>16045726
No I don't care about this. I want market moon.

>>16045699
pretty sure he just wants attention...
most of his tweets are garbage, this was just cryptic garbage. I keked when it happened though.

>>16045699
>BNO News: BREAKING: U.S. President Donald Trump will address the nation at 9 a.m. ET

Uuuuh?

>>16045757
$5 says it's nothing, and he's going to make bullshit claims about the witch hunt and shit.

It's not going to be about a trade deal or anything we care about.

>>16045772
We killed ISIS leader. Its all it is

>>16045757
I want market moon (China deal). Or Bill n' Hillary Clinton being charged for treason. That would be okay too.

>>16045825
that news is already out though? Why would he hype an announcement about something the press has already reported? Alright fine. Maybe you're right. I will temper my expectations.

>>16045825
They announced his death like 10 times already and Russia like 5 times on-top of that, how would that be a "big announcement"? Kek'd

>>16045837
Trump probably wants to have an Osama level press conference on destroying ISIS once and for all. Not much western media is confirming it right now propbably cause they were told not to

>>16045837
He does so much stupid shit all the time that we just ignore. I'm always getting his garbage tweets where he shills some foxnews asshole's book or whatever, I'm sick of it. Unironically shut the fuck up boomer, get something done or let us pay attention to someone else for five goddamn minutes. Eat your damn borger.

>>16045868
>fuck lci guy
>bash trump
You really have no business here

>>16045929
it's got nothing to do with politics, I'm sick of social media.

Actually fuck you, are you that same retard from last thread? I'm too angry for that bullshit today.

BUY THE FUCKING VIX

DOWNSIDE IS ABOUT 30%, THE UPSIDE IS HUGE

FORGET THE STOCKS

BUY THE VIX

Anytime the VIX trades under 13, it's on borrowed time before a volatility spike ensues.

movie night...

>>16046089
Augh I was eating dinner with sunmommy and just got home! I'll have it up shortly!

>>16046096

What's the room on cytube again?

I never remember it.

>>16046106
Movie night movie night! Get in here! Tonight's feature is I don't Know Yet, I'm frantically googling for free copies of some good spookies

>>16046082
Under 12. I usually get jerked around by contango if it's in the 13-14 range.

>>16046120
Tonight's feature is The Blair Witch Project (1996)!

>>16045999

I just realized I had options exercised on me. I am now the owner of 1k Groupon stock. In at 3.15 (including premium) current is 3.05. Any predictions/thoughts on this?

>>16046260
Sell when groupon hits $2000/share, and then name your Yacht after Groupon

>>16045825

Yes, but how do I make money off of this? Can I short ISIS?

>>16046608
Buy calls on syrias currency? Idk

>>16046608
look back and see what stocks and commodities did when WE GOT HIM! osama MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

>>16045155
keked and checked

>>16046729
Bin Laden raid was beginning of May 2011. Having a look at S&P chart... May was mildly bearish that year. June and July nothing until BLAM -18% plunge in last week of July to first week of August. Fakeout bounce, then eventual low of the big dip came first week of October to a final low of -20%.

So it wasn't very gud. There was a near uninterrupted bull run for almost four years after that though. Around late 2014 snibby appeared on the field.

>>16046729
The average american has no clue who al-Baghdadi is (or was) lol. How many times has he already been reported dead, both by Russia, the US, SAA, etc? At this point in the war killing al-Jolani would probably be a bigger blow to jihadism too.

>>16046805
I don't really care myself, which supports my initial "it's nothing" remark about trump's cryptic tweet. He's never stopped campaigning, this is all part of the campaign.

Some interesting reading on the blair witch, definitely mike staring at the corner in the end.

>>16046802
Interesting, good work. I doubt that all had much to do with osama though

>>16046820
>I doubt that all had much to do with osama though
it was some other bullshit the market had a temper tantrum over

>>16046820
I'm reading now he was likely hiding in a HTS controlled area near the Turkish border. I wonder if that's what Erdogan's phone call to Trump was about, giving him Baghdadi in exchange for letting peace spring start?
It's funny to me how these things seem to happen the year before an incumbent president goes up for election. Baghdadi spending all those years at Abu Ghraib get my noggin joggin...
wtf happened to Josh then? He really did return to the land!

>>16046839
Josh is dead, or is the one who forces mike to stare at the corner while he kills heather. A lot depends on whether the witch kills directly or needs to influence/possess someone to do the killing.

Is that why they let osama escape before, for timing?

It's crazy that they supposedly killed Bin Laden and dumped his body in the ocean.
no pictures, nothing
then all the guys who were supposedly involved with it all die in a helicopter crash a month later.
spooky

>>16046858
I've always assumed they just knew where he was and let him keep doing his thing until it was time to uncork the story, like a fine Brut to ring in the 2012 election. How much was bin Laden actually coordinating from his Pakistan shithole, not a lot I'd bet. He was old and crippled, the mainline Saudi salafists and Muslim Brotherhood guys could accomplish a lot more with their intelligence networks than him, he was just a wealthy, charismatic figurehead who'd already served them well against Russia and the Great Satan.

>>16046878
hmmm... seems like the gov't could easily arrange a fake death and new ID for them. Otherwise, they're a liability. If they say or do anything islamaphobic or whatever, could really cause a kerfuffle.

>>16046884
Well sure, he was just living out his end of days. I don't think anyone thought it was much of a tactical victory, everyone thought it was symbolic. Justice finally delivered, hot lead from the USA.

>>16046878
I'm as much of a conspiracy guy as they come but I buy that he was either killed during neptune spear or maybe just died of kidney problems. The extortion 17 thing doesn't hold water, they were mostly baseline seals killed. One DEVGRU guy from gold squadron was killed, but neptune spear was largely carried out by red squadron. It was still a horrible fuckup and predictably terribly handled by the higher-ups.
I'm relatively sure the accounts of the bin laden raid guys all being silenced in extortion 17 are a kind of tragic cope from their parents and friends. If you listen to interviews from people involved it seems like they want their kids (who died for no reason due to incompetence) to have been secret heroes who took out the evil terrorist leader.

>>16046931
https://publicdomainreview.org/collections/the-key-of-hell-an-18th-century-manual-on-black-magic/

the book the filmmakers took the markings on the wall from

>>16046993
My niggas (just like everyone) plagiarizing Agrippa! I got ta see an original 'grippa signed in blood last year!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/26/trump-will-address-nation-sunday-morning-after-tweeting-something-very-big-happened.html

What will Trump announce? Will it dump or raise markets?

>>16047070
he's gonna do a Kanye West Sunday Service (SS) livestream

>>16047070

He's releasing a new crypto, Trumpcoin.

October 30th is my day of destiny.
Etsy earnings are that day after the bell. I have most of everything I have invested in it.
>Sometimes you need to roll a hard six!
That's my theme for these earnings. Also on the verge of quitting my job. I only have 4 work days to find a new one. Never found one that quick ever, but I'm going to do it, because there is no try!

>>16047279
>Pic unrelated but I wish it was

>>16047293
Those are some low hanging boobies.

Godspeed but no I don’t want to buy back into Etsy. Enjoy your lambo

>>16039611
Best thing to do now is to create a long/short portfolio of mostly tech stocks. Vanguard predicts that the next decade or two the S&P500 will only yield something like 3-5%.

>>16038070

>>16047470
>Not circling stocks you KNOW are important to /smg/
C’mon. Circle that Merck, AT&T, Etsy, and Kraft Heinz.

>>16047493
I don't really know enough about those companies to make an informed decision. Right now I'm pretty much only doing maybe 2-3 techs: AAPL, FB, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA and hedging with SPY/QQQ.

>>16038070
Theoretically, if I have enough for money for either or, should I pay off my student debt or my car loan?

Silent generation billionaire gold pill (must see advice)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8s7pNuiINM

>>16045497
>10b mcap for fishoil pills
ahahahahahahah

>>16046082
vix would be an absolute based moneymaker if it wasn't for contangp

>>16046132
I miss those comfy low effort horror movies.
The world was a better place just 10 years ago.
I could really sit down in the middle of the day and enjoy some shit flicks. I've completely lost my comfyness and can't do this anymore. I have become Fresco.

Someone redpill me on why this won't work.

New to stocks, have only a little bit of money to start trading, and I've been looking into strategies, theories, and vocab. What's an optimal stock (mostly penny stocks) for now?

>>16048141
Knee pad (KNE)

I could make more money than 90% of people in this thread

10 mins a year

60% UPRO 3xS&P 500
40% EDV

rebalance once a month

>>16048141
start by eating only mcd and drink only coca-cola :) that is the most important lesson you'll need

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0AZQS3mQvs

https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/warren+buffett/profile

>>16047763
Stranger things have happened

>see BYND

AAAAAARGH $8K until I don't have to pay maintenance fee on my account.

>>16049699
It will go to where it belongs. Same for amrn.
I wouldn't make a bet which is based on hope that the market will be irrational. It might work for a fake meat ipo in the current time of absolute faggotry, but fishoil doesn't have that pull.

Guys, do I need level 2 quotes for day/short-term trading? It's like $62 dollars a month WTF

>>16050098
It's spoofed af.
Just try it for a month and see for yourself.

>>16050098
You want to day trade and you think $62 a month is a lot? How much did you even plan to trade with? $200? Kek'd

>>16049875
I bought some calls....if the AMRN shill is right I'll make a killing, if not I'm out a little bit of $

>>16049699
Please explain

>>16050369
It should be fairly self-explanatory given the context of the discussion. I'm not sure how I could make it nay clearer.

>>16049699
>>16050369
Because its apple and oranges. 10B or more for AMRN is quite wtf I’ll give you that, but BYND has a good product and soon will to become a recognized brand. There sure will a large demand for their produce (if they dont f-it up with bad ingredients), sure the stock is pricey, but its not fish oil goddamit.

>>16050405
>BYND has a good pro
Have you tasted their "burgers"?

Anyone here trade oil/energy? If so, what resources do you use for research?

>>16050098
Nope

>>16050369
Valued at several billions when they ran their business from a shed, projected by expert "analysts" (absolutely not insiders that already owned a massive amount of the stock) that the stock would go to 800-900 short term, etc etc. Just your typical pump and dump hype stock

>>16050417
Not yet but heard/read that they’re quite good. Of course there’ll be naysayers but maybe they are not the target market - you can’t be loved by everyone. Also I have a feeling that developing such products is not that easy.

How is nakd, snss, Goro go do long term?

>>16050444
Man I’m not arguing that the valuation was/is ridiculous, just saying that they have long term potential and its just one of those companies that are currently taken advantage of by the greedy. On the other hand AMRN is just pure wizardry and you should consider shorting any dumbass co. who’ll buy them.

>>16050514
>On the other hand AMRN is just pure wizardry and you should consider shorting any dumbass co. who’ll buy them.

It's my understanding we should sell the pump from the acquisition, which is what I am planning to do. I have no intention of touching whoever buys them.

My wife gets cooking magazines and shit, I saw an ad for Amarins product, looks pretty well done. I could see it being bought out.

>>16046260
>Any predictions/thoughts on this?
sell at the money calls to collect premium and lower your basis.

>>16040735
>Could anybody recommend some good ressources/tutorials for technical analysis
If your going to learn to trade listen to this.

Chat with traders is good interview series with legends and people who day trade for a living. You can learn what style matches your personality.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdnzT5Tl6pAkATOiDsPhqcg

If you want I can give you my whole learn to trade copy pasta
>so I don't fuck myself too hard?
not fucking your self is about money management not technical analysis. make small bets to learn is the tldr

>>16041902
>Fun fact: Telegrams are still in use.
how and why?

>>16042865
you don't like armstrong's work?
the best hate thread on armstrong is on bitcointalk.
I've found he has a better than chance calls on multi month/year swings.

>>16042643
>stock market is predictable
do you use socrates?
I do it's not the best on the daily prediction but the month stuff appears to be good.

>>16050672
can you give me any info on swing trading crypto? If I learn and follow certain strategies is it possible to make money this way or is it all just a gamble

>>16048371
>60% UPRO 3xS&P 500
>40% EDV
Modern portfolio theory stock/bonds isn't based on actual data.
https://youtu.be/ywelSxtcrKE?t=1984

how much is this compounding at per year for you?

>>16050672
>chat with traders
Yup, I highly suggest it too, so much insightful information about the psychology in the biz
>learn to trade copy
A drop would be highly appreciated

>>16050723
>can you give me any info on swing trading crypto?
I only swing trade option.
We have a discord with anons who do crypto. You want the discord?
>or is it all just a gamble
It's a gamble but unlike the casino there is less edge against you. It really comes down to your style and personality. I'd say try will a small amount of money and learn the skill.

>>16050098
No. I mean, yes, if you're day trading it can be helpful to squeeze the absolute best possible price you can manage before market close. But mostly no. Oh that 200,000 share bid just disappeared? Lol now there's a massive wall on the ask but now not but now it's back or wait no we're going up and now it vanished? See, fucking around with the spread is algo bread and butter. There is rarely any truth to be had when you have bots changing things on split second time frames.

I get level 2 for free and no longer pay any attention to it. The top bid/ask spread is the only thing i need and that's free always for everybody. One tip though, if you have a few minutes to make sure your order gies through, you can place a limit order in the middle of the current bid/ask and usually get that to go through. Slightly better price than market buy/sell.

>>16039611
>Not to mention dividends.
Their dividends are below inflation tho.

>>16050786
>A drop would be highly appreciated
I prefer swing trading options
Learn to trade options form ex floor traders
https://www.youtube.com/user/tastytrade1/videos

Why selling options has profits
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/actual-vs-implied-moves-07-16-2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amao0pJE1XI
I would start by selling a put on cheap stock you would own anyway.

Guy makes a million a year on 5 million consistently selling options
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCg6XBPhtVqntGhtAblXxybg/videos

Learn from actual money managers
https://www.youtube.com/user/OpalesqueTV/videos


If you’re good people give you money based on performance
Jack Schwager who wrote the Market wizards book series created a platform to give traders money
https://fundseeder.com/traderplatform
https://youtu.be/IpQK3Oo1zSI

Martin Armstrong has a super computer that makes price predictions and it's really accurate. He has 6,000 years of economic data in there. I highly recommend you read his stuff. That's where I got a trade idea that went up 44X
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/
http://ask-socrates.com

Value investing
Mohnish Pabrai is friends with Buffet and compounds at 26% and runs his value investing funds himself
https://www.youtube.com/user/mohnishpabrai

Learn how buffet uses reinsurance to lever his returns and compound tax deferred. It's a structural thing.
https://youtu.be/cNQ4UBhj5X4

>>16050789
sure i have discord

>>16050795
I'm using the adaptive algo on IB and you can combine it with LMT order and it will try to give you the best price.

Even if the S&P 500 drops to like 3- 5% a year in gains that's still fucking better than most banks pay out. Keeping some green handy for shit happens deals is smart, keeping all of it in there is just dumb. Your letting your green grow moldy while the cost of shit keeps going up.

Buy silver

>>16050825
>sure i have discord
here's my discord
VWRlc2g#4757
when I post the invite link it gets blocked by 4chan

AMRN is not like most startup bio companies. Most go before the FDA with one product and a hope that it passes. (and get bought out for a fat wad not long after). AMRN already has a product out that is FDA approved. This is raking in loads of money for them. All this new process is for is to expand on that first product's use. So this is a double win for them. As they say, there's no such thing as bad publicity, once they kick the FDA's ass with this expanded use they'll get bought. The profit generated by both products will be insane, the heart attack is the biggest killer now, anything that can prevent/reduce that with low or no side effects is worth loads of money. Big Pharma knows this. Do you really think they'd just sit back and let a small company (400 people) keep it all?

>>16050824
Damn, thanks a lot!

>>16051117
What about competition? And what about the product (cost intensive to develop)?

>>16051130
>Damn, thanks a lot!
Glad to help fren

>>16047520
But Etsy is the key to everything!

>>16051167
There is no competition. Lipotor comes to mind but it's bargain binned (less profit for big pharma) and it has more side effects. Also the risk reduction is not as high as with AMRN. AMRN has the shit patented, 10 years only they can make this drug. Any attempts to create anything like it would be swatted down in court.

>>16051269
>patented
>fishoil
>patented
How can you patent fishoil?
It's e-epa they're selling, right?
According to wiki eepa gets metabolized to epa.
What's the point?
How it this better than normal epa+dha?
>already has a product
Which would be?

>>16051468
I'm not a biofag but wiki also says that most fishoil is sold as eepa. It seems to me that amrn were just the first one to show in a study that omega 3 has an effect.

What does /smg/ think of binary options trading?

>>16051542
so you're telling me that AMRN has patented fish oil, and now will be selling it super marked-up as a pharmaceutical with doctors writing prescriptions?
we'll see how that goes for them....

>>16052155
I only trade quantum options

What is discounted cash flow? My brother says its the most important metric when evaluating a stock. I already understand cash discount rates though.

>>16052388
I got you bruh

https://www.google.com/search?q=What+is+discounted+cash+flow%3F

>>16052401
nigger

>>16052452
:^)

>>16052369
Sounds a lot like it but I doubt that they patented it.

>>16052491
Just look it up. They process the fish oil for just the part that helps. Its fda approved. Doctors needs shit they can prescribe that is reliable. Getting over the counter fish oil is often bullshit because supplements have no oversight. I know doctors telling patients to use high quality stuff and their results go way up from the normal stuff at Walmart or wherever. So they patent getting the good shit out of it, just like what marinol did.

>>16047771
This is why I’m thinking I’ll buy puts soon. I bought some vxx but contango is a motherfucker and I’m not sure how to use it to my advantage. Also the futures contracts based ETFs have enough leverage to fuck my shit up.

I need to figure out what the hell jane street does to make all that money on puts, and if I need a lot more money to be able to even try that game.

>>16050672
>>16050762
>>16050824
Thanks for the links. I need to stop being a retard if I want to win at the market game, and these seem more useful than my typical economic podcasts.

I need to get disciplined and git gud.

>>16052981
Why is becks not making an ahegao face here? She could learn a lot from Belle.

>>16052981
Grandpa'd

Shorted Spotify and longed AT&T into earnings btw /smg/. I think it's solid

>>16047763
You won’t be laughing in January, fren. I’ll be the one laughing- on the way to the bank baby!

>>16053298
I should make a collage where I put all the amrn shills.

Almost there...

>>16053319
Great idea!

>>16053189
Daily reminder that AT&T used to be called American Telephone and Telephone.

>>16053601
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/1973/03/03/archives/interest-rates-pressing-higher-shortterm-levels-climbatt-outlines.html

I can't wait for the next big stock market crash so I can buy in on my long-term, highly diversified investment portfolio!

>>16053601
Cool.. and stuff

>>16053641
I think all of us here can't wait for another financial crisis, BUT you should still invest while you wait. Just average in during the drop when it's happening and you'll be better off than 90% of investors

>>16053788
This. Keep investing when shit tanks, a lot of guys end up panicking and pulling everything out and refuse to invest until it blows over.

>>16053470
You really think that being 2,368th on their waiting list offers such an advantage over being 3,175th that it was worth spending as much of your time and connective tissue as required to tap your screen 807 times? To get 2.05% interest per year? If so, I hate to say this, but have sex, incel. Yikes.

>>16053857
I leave my phone under my girl so that my balls hit the screen every stroke. I can generate all kinds of clicks without any extra effort on my part.
needless to say, my card is already secured. your advice to "have sex" is actually good and genuine advice in this case.

>>16052155
01001001 00100000 01110100 01101000 01101001 01101110 01101011 00100000 01100010 01101001 01101110 01100001 01110010 01111001 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01110000 01110010 01100101 01110100 01110100 01111001 00100000 01100011 01101111 01101111 01101100

>>16052369
>so you're telling me that AMRN has patented fish oil, and now will be selling it super marked-up as a pharmaceutical with doctors writing prescriptions?
>we'll see how that goes for them....

Think like a normie.

Natural=good
Prescription=safe and effective

Natural prescription=shut up and take my insurers money!

>>16046132
i actually wanted to watch that movie for a long time, you should have played next weekend

>>16053989
they could probably come up with studies that showed better quality control, less spoilage, less contamination (mercury and shit) than regular OTC fish oil.

The supplement industry is unregulated to such an absurd degree, it's a joke.

I've got a $38 T call, better not get it in the ass

>>16053961
01001101 01101001 01100111 01101000 01110100 00100000 01100001 01110011 00100000 01110111 01100101 01101100 01101100 00100000 01110011 01101000 01101111 01101111 01110100 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 01110010 01110011 01100101 01101100 01100110

>>16053961
mods this man said the n word

>>16053996
you should have come to movie night

we should watch REC or A Tale of Two Sisters next week~

>>16053989
I'm thinking that it's about to be election year, and something like "a drug company is charging $100/bottle for fish oil pills" is going to get liz warren elected president....

>>16053470
>>16053933

where are you viewing your place in line?

>>16054102
what manga is this?

>>16053857
You’re either first or last

>>16053933
>Giving yourself testicular cancer for (maybe, not guaranteed) slightly earlier access to 2.05% interest per annum

Again, that's going to get a capital YIKES from me, incel.

>>16050672
>>16050824

Thank you very much for the dump, guess I'll be quite busy tomorrow

>>16054150

I dunno but this is the only manga that matters

Let's see what happens, 2 minutes and we are so close to new ATH's

>>16054552
NEW ATH ON NQ

DONG DONG DONG DONG DONG

Futures open. Starting in mild green territory.,

>>16054592
HEY HEY HO HO 3025 WALL MUST GO

FUTURES

>>16054150
道産子ギャルはなまらめんこい

desu what you should do is read all mangas instead of just certain ones

>>16054610
>道産子ギャルはなまらめんこい
thanks
I'd never be able to remember what's going on in any of them if I read all of them

HOW WOULD U PLAY THE STOCK MARKET WITH 150K?

BLOOD GREEN FUTURES. ATH tomorrow 100% confirmed.

>>16054630
Carefully with a fairly large emphasis on dividends.

>>16054655
can you lay out your plan pls?

>>16054625
>remember
the whole point of investing is to get rich enough to put your brain in a tank hooked up to a supercomputer, and to read and re-read all cute romance mangas, forever

>>16054630
BUY A MOTORCYCLE AND SOME INDEX FUNDS

ATH on the NQ will make people buy like crazy tomorrow. My target of 8200 looks fucking good right now

>>16054630
>>16054655
>>16054676
DON'T FORGET TO BUY BONDS

>>16054665
I'm just talking and weighting your portfolio mainly towards blue chip companies with good dividend growth history. 150k is enough money that you don't need to be making a bunch of risky moves on volatile stocks.

>>16054677
you think the crab can be defeated so easily...
heh

>>16054698
ok thanks

>>16054700
New ATH usually leads to a 100-200 point pump though which history shows AND we just broke the ceiling with force. 8200 seems perfect before a retracement. I have a massive position in it right now

Trading noob here: the best way to make big cash is by trading options, right?

>>16050762
>how much is this compounding at per year for you?

Over 26%

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=4&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=UPRO&allocation1_1=60&symbol2=EDV&allocation2_1=40&total1=100&total2=0&total3=0

It's a hypothetical idea that would fail in a bond bear market

>>16040735
>Could anybody recommend some good ressources/tutorials for technical analysis so I don't fuck myself too hard?

Technical analysis is being fooled by random patterns

>>16054698
>I'm just talking and weighting your portfolio mainly towards blue chip companies with good dividend growth history. 150k is enough money that you don't need to be making a bunch of risky moves on volatile stocks.

What's the point? Just buy USMV or SPY. These are already blue chip companies.

>>16054958
This works too. However, with current instability it may be better to select blue chips in sectors minimally affected by economic slump.

>>16054923
>the best way to [lose] big cash is by trading.
fixed

>>16054958
it just seems like spy keeps going up and up, it has to correct right ?

>bought spy puts

weekend is over soon... will be interesting to see which direction tesla goes

>>16054989
THIS MARKET WANTS HIGHER

>>16054976
>This works too. However, with current instability it may be better to select blue chips in sectors minimally affected by economic slump.

USMV will decline less than any group of companies bought by Joe Smith in his basement

I buy stocks only for fun and they're a small part of my money, it seems dumb to be stock picking when there's an ETF for every investment style

>>16054630
150k worth of April Vix calls

>sold 90% of my nikkei fund
not feeling terribly smart...

>>16055320
How do you even buy calls on an index?

Short $PAM right now if you can, it will tank.

>>16054958
>putting all your money into just a couple stocks

>>16054630

Go to a casino, head to the roulette table, and put it all on black. If I win, buy $300k in SPY.

>>16038091
308 after hours, closed at 299 following day. There's your "sell the news".

>>16055569
Now you're talking.

The dance begins.

>>16055569
Casinos have maximum bets

Astolfo, what do we call people who failed to buy SNSS?

>>16055469
Or short the argentinian peso if you can rn. Dead serious. I expect PAM to fall by 50% and the peso by 15%-20%.

>>16055962

No, they will accept huge bets like that.

>>16056080
Would love to see your forex trade history

If I came into about 100k that I don't want to use for anything right now, am I better off sticking it in a high yield savings account or one of the Vanguard retirement funds? The Vanguard funds haven't been doing too peachy YTD, though.

SPX futures ATH soon

Just almost 3 weeks to go till AMRN kicks the FDA's ass during the Adcom meeting. As a reminder, 70% of drugs that make it past this point get the final Green light later, which comes on Dec 28th for AMRN. This window between Nov 15th and Dec 28th is the perfect time for a Holy Buyout to happen. Big Pharma will know the drug is a lock for approval but they also know that after Dec 28th the cost to buy AMRN will be much higher. So cheaper to buy before that date. Still lots of heavy green bags will be tossed out but that will be chump change compared to the Profit the drug will rake in over ten years before it's bargained binned. Also during that window the stock price will be flying high on the good news. So shareholders, board members will be very rewarded cause at minimum your looking at 30 per x 2 (buyout price) per share with the top end pegged at $50 per + the buyout at 2x that.

>>16056686
I'd split it, 50k in the high yield savings in case shit happens, the other 50k in the target fund or s&p 500 fund

Nintendo finally getting a Green Day from the japs... we’ll see

>>16056770
I already have about 50k emergency fund that's completely separate from this 100k. I also have a couple mortgages at 3.75% and 4.5% that I could potentially pay off.

>>16056140
Needs authorization. Potential liability. Cant just take random big bets from just anybody

>>16056311
See you tomorrow morning

https://youtu.be/8xyUaSY4ZMg

How to trade for a living (in a nutshell)

>>16052618

You are getting all wrong, if VXX is permabear at long term due contango just SHORT IT, same aplies to TVIX and even USO (OIL ETF with serious tracking error), JUST... etc that kind of ETFs are bearish due their nature

>>16057157
How worth it is shorting based on the tax penalty?

>>16055569

This is called the barbell strategy btw

>>16057157
>USO (OIL ETF with serious tracking error)
Go on please.

>>16057610
it's not actually that bad for a futures-based commodity index
looks like ~1.5% for year.

>>16057157
>shorting tvix
That could work but you could easily be annihilated. I guess if you use a tight stoploss and it triggers quickly enough. You never know though, trump, Powell, anything could spike it.

I’ve been buying vxx thinking it’s eventually free money because vix never goes to zero and eventually it spikes. I guess I’m a brainlet though. I thought I’d hodl through tomorrow, but going short isn’t such a crazy idea, except the vix is already soooo low, and traders might get it into their heads that Powell isn’t going to cut.

Can you expand on this strategy at all?

>>16057250
>tax penalty for shorting
Holy crap that’s news to me

>>16057157
Wasn't there some firm that got rekt doing exactly this?
Picking pennies in front of a steamroller kek

>>16057157
>SHORT IT
did you not notice what happened in 2018?

>>16057915
a bunch of individuals lost everything
the ETN had to shut down, but I don't think the company running the ETN lost any money

>>16057134
>The only thing about trading is, just don't lose money. When you lose money it changes everything.
So fucking true. I hate this game ever since I started losing monies. Changed everything.

Before, it was fun. Stocks go up, yay! Stocks go down, cheapies! Now... no this is serious.

college student here just bought 5 Microsoft stocks as my first investment. Did I do good?

>>16058032
what university are you going to?
what major?
how are you financing it?

>>16057915
A redditor lost ~4 million averaging down on XIV Feb. 2018.

>>16058287
>WA state
>crim J
>part time job while I'm still in school

>>16058288
that hurt so much to read at the time

>>16058318
you did good
better than most young zoomers out there lol

make sure to take out as many loans as possible and pay the minimum just in case one of the "forgiveness" democrats gets elected, then you basically get a bunch of "free" money courtesy of the taxpayers

>>16058339
>make sure to take out as many loans as possible and pay the minimum just in case one of the "forgiveness" democrats gets elected, then you basically get a bunch of "free" money courtesy of the taxpayers
God I've really been considering doing something like that... especially now that Trump's guy in charge of student loan crisis just left and called for debt forgiveness.

I need to read the plans to figure out if it could be worth it.

Fucking SPX500USD got within 20 cents of the ATH earlier this evening, backed off a quarter turn, and is now waiting...

Also natty gas broke bullish. +3.5% for now.

>>16058360
I really doubt student loan forgiveness will happen at all. I also doubt a Democrat will win 2020

>>16058772

>I also doubt a Democrat will win 2020

People said that about Trump winning in 2016. Prepare for all contingencies, no matter how remote.

>>16058772
Loan forgiveness doesn't even make sense.
Just make them eligible for bankruptcy, like other debt.

>>16057157
I doubt you will find any vxx to short and if then the fee will be too high

>>16058772
Doesn't need to be in 2020
who said anything about 2020?

>>16058845
If I can buy it why can't I short it? If I flip it the same day, are there still fees? I guess I need to read the fine print at schwab.

I got out of a short at near breakeven, maybe that means I lost some money.

Still... Shorting something like sqqq sounds interesting. Can I use that decay to my advantage...

>>16058830
Bankruptcy is easy for someone with no assets who still lives at home to do. Everyone would file for bankruptcy after graduation if that was the case.

>>16058830
Biden’s plan seems alright. I wish he were a little younger and sharper, so we didn’t have this warren thing going on.

>>16043485
I'm a Pledgecamp fan for long time! but what about the other two?

>>16058830
>>16059053

The US education system is bloated, if market discipline was introduced by allowing bankruptcy, the cost would drop by 50% or more

Hi all, I was hoping one of you guys here would be able to provide some advice for a total noob. How does one get started into stock market trading, what is the most basic 101 to start with?

And how does one choose a broker if I live outside of the USA. I'm based in UK.

Help a brother out..

>>16060052
>>16060052

>>16060052
>>16060052
>>16060052

new day
new week
new thread

>>16060052
>>16060052
>>16060052