/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>15042521
I am keeping an eye on Deutsche Bank. I think they are going to be the cause of the domino effect. Could be a lot of things, but I am watching them more closely.

>>15042521
italy will leave the euro zone, everything is going to start there

hard brexit
Deutsche Bank
car loans
student loans
property loans

>>15042521
I heard that the debt of developing countries is going to start it. How accurate is this?

eh just bail it
print more dollars

>>15042521
>Global debt is 300 times global GDP.
no it ain't

>>15042625
Will not work this time. They have already said if it happens this time around we are fucked as far as printing and monetary easing goes.

Buy silver, gold and bsv

Tick tock, tick tock...
https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

WWW3:

North Korea's nukes.

Iran hijacking oil tankers and blocking the Persian Gulf.

>>15042569
the ECB will print whatever it takes to bail them out, not a chance DB is going to bring this down

>>15042619
in % of gdp it is the highest in developed countries

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/01/02/new-data-on-global-debt/

>>15042619
not true. Most developing countries are better at debt servicing than developed

>>15042521
ALL THE BUBBLES OP

>>15042642
No, it will definitely work. The question becomes - at what cost?

The world's markets have been flirting with dangerous monetary policies for the last 30 years.

Take, for example, NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. Look at the ECB, look at the BoJ. They're so desperate to prop their systems up that they had to start PAYING PEOPLE TO BORROW MONEY. The whole system is so reliant on overleveraged credit that the policy wonks just overleverage it more to solve for any cyclical speedbumps.

Now that doesn't necessarily mean that the whole thing will explode now in this market cycle. The US Fed has never played with negative interest rates yet, but probably will in the event of a severe contraction. That alone implies to me that we have at least one more macro market cycle until the whole thing unravels.

>>15042772
This.

>>15042772
is it really worth trying to play this final cycle?
I'm black pilled and probably going to invest in land and pepper shit even if the collapse is a decade away
in the meantime I'm mostly in BTC hedged in gold/silver/some stocks

>>15042582
Actually true

Ok boys.

Im 50/50 in crypto and stocks with my entire fucking networth. I literally have only a few hundred bucks on my bank account.

I agree with you OP, i have a feeling that a financial crisis is coming. No - i know a financial crisis will come. I just dont know when. It could take years from now on.

Im on the edge of selling all my stocks and buy gold with it, im in huge profit with my stocks. I dont want to see all my gains vanish into thin air.

Pls frens, what should i do?
I almost sold all my stocks and bought more btc with it when it was at 4k$, but i was too cautious. Imo its now too risky to buy more BTC since we could easily drop 50% or more, but who knows? Maybe we moon to 100k$ or more. But i dont want to be 100% in crypto.

Thanks in advance for your advise boys.

passive investment (aka buying index funds) is going to blow everything up. the prevailing wisdom of this bubble cycle is " you can't lose if you buy the index", just like "you can't lose if you buy real estate" last time around. this line of thinking has created perverse incentives for all public companies, hence the buyback epidemic. additionally it's created a fragile environment for alpha because there's little to be gained by having to actually compete for investment when you have a never-ending stream of dumb money rolling in buying indexes indiscriminately. as it currently stands, most people who invest don't actually know how their holdings are allocated because everyone is buying everything in a roughly similar distribution. as soon as there's a rumble in the market, everyone is going to start selling these allocations en masse. what happens when everyone begins selling everything simultaneously? you do the math. all it takes for everything to come tumbling down is a change in sentiment.

>>15042521
For most people, the 2008 crisis not only hasn't ended, but things have gotten even worse.

>>15043216
>passive investment
NEET detected

Also, australian houses prices are in a huge bubble since 2000!!! Never crashed in 08 because the GFC wasnt affected here, debt is at its all time high and gold is $2000 per oz and our exchange rate is tanking !!! About time we have a crash

There are australian ecomiats saying gold will easy reach $20k USD per oz, when DB Goes down!!!

>>15043341
based I have like 18 or 19 oz of gold

although if it goes to 20k per ounce you can literally pan random river bed is the west and make several times minimum wage
gold's inflation percentage is dependent on price

>>15043352
im getting nervous. my grandma told me to buy gold today. even she knows something ain't right.

>>15043392
the market never recovered from 2008
fed interest rates are being cut tomorrow so it's official our economy is screwed and options to fix it are limited

but don't be too worried, even in total shitholes like Venezuela if you have money you have access to nice markets and food

when crisis will the crypto will grow up or down ?
i fear of dump '=\

>>15043471
people who are leveraged and lose their jobs and money in the stock market will sell crypto to pay off loans an debts
in 2008 gold went down initially then skyrocketed I can see something similar happening

>>15043504
no crash is like the other

>>15043236
someone didn't read my post

>>15042772
>>15042767
I just pulled out of the market and bought a cabin in the woods. I plan on growing food as well as hunting next year. My net worth is now nearly entirely crypto and real estate.

Was this a good or bad move in your opinion?

>>15043504
hm... you want to say need to sell before crisis and buy in crisis the crypto.
the crypto is my cash for black days aka crisis or cancer

>>15043554
real estate is the one thing the government will tax for sure once it needs money. and i dont mean the stuff you pay right now already.

>>15043597
sure that would be smart
I just see a lot of people getting taken and needing to sell but maybe not
crypto investors are pretty in tune to the failures of traditional markets
thankfully due to bitcoin's success I have no debts so I'll have no reason to sell unless I decide to diversify
we'll see

>>15043624
it hard to sell. you dont when it will pump or dumb, im not billionaire

>>15042569
>>15042582
>>15042596
you goys need too look at the upside: CHEAP VACATIONS IN EUROPE!!

I'd love to stop by Cyprus or Ibiza during full on Eurodepression.

Caitlyn Jenner transitions a second time

>>15042582
I could see this

>>15043216
>the prevailing wisdom of this bubble cycle is " you can't lose if you buy the index", just like "you can't lose if you buy real estate"

I have never thought of that before, and it's been in front of my face the whole time.. That's a pretty excellent insight anon.

So if that's the case, I'm betting regular purchases of out of the money index puts are going to be pretty profitable if done over the right timeframe.

>>15043216
it's like the same damn thing as CMOs; you only need the small caps to start tumbling down.. then when enough cards fall over it pulls down the whole house.

>>15042582
more than a start it will be a consequence of the coming crisis, italy will never leave as of now, these piece of shit Eu puppets destroyed internal demand and now italy it’s just doing export, we are like addicted to Eu market right now, they are trying to make life harder in case of italexit, but yea at some point italy will have no choice

>>15043392
stock broker here. saw a $2MM boomerfolio stacked 100% with precious metal ETFs. had to argue with back office to vet a platinum ETF.

>>15042708
Not gonna happen, Kim is fucking right now a beautiful harem of North Korean pussies, he actually do not give a shit about starting a war with us and getting nuked

What do you do if you're a wagie 18 year old zoomer, too young and too poor to play the investing games, and you dont want your family w/ future kids to get rekt by the coming crisis? Is there anything you can do? I mean fuck, I'm saving just to buy a car right now

>>15043871
tell your parents to move their money into precious metals, bonds, defensive stocks, and BTC. Then watch as they laugh you out of the room.

>>15043917
They have no money, they're welfare queens. I've recently moved out. Theres not really any friends or extended family with the kind of money to create financial security that way - am I best off stockpiling canned food with my leftover money?

>>15043554
Depends. Can you defend your cabin?

>>15043064
Not at the moment. It's too early. Go with the flow. Buy the fucking dip, etc. Watch for the signs that a collapse is a short-term possibility, and take action then.

>>15044057
I have guns too.

>>15042772
Well, what the fuck do I do at the end of the next cycle then...

>>15043216
What do you think of risk-parity

>>15043958
I love you fags who move to cabins who think you’re so superior to people who don’t.

Tell me fagfots, what are you going to do in the woods alone? Live a little bit longer than the rest of humanity? Raise a shittt family with a 5/10 slampig produced this this diseased culture? Value survival at all costs?

You’re unironicallt worse than most NPCs since they have no misplaced pretense of superiority

>>15043838

>>15044057
Yeah I’m sure you fagfots who went to the range once or twice will be able to defend your shitty cabin against roving bands of armed and experienced militias in an apocalyptic scenario.

The absolute delusion of you subhuman kuks

>>15042521
Nope nothing kikes won't let it happen they will do whatever it takes

>>15044188
This. We have at least one last crisis before the big one

>>15042521
they will let the market collapse ~6-12 months before 2020 elections. Trump will not be reelected

Honestly the U.S. is fine at this point. Anyone we owe money to will be killed, invaded and controlled entirely if need be. The CIA/Military industrial complex will keep this show going for quite some time.

>>15043207
u dont metal, place it in dividend stocks

>>15044218
Fucking THIS finally someone with a fucking brain. It will be a controlled demolition that will remove trump from power while still maintaining bankers power.

Having friends like your irl might have preserved my sanity a bit

>>15044151
the theory is sound but it really depends where you're allocated and the nature of the market downturn. could be like playing russian roulette if your diversification is based on "tried and true" strategies without critical evaluation of current market conditions.

>>15044265
How often should one rebalance? My finance friends told me about it so I don’t really know the specifics

>>15044250
>>15044218
If you haven't noticed already but Trump is already fully under the control of the kikes. They don't give a flying fuck if he is relected because Kushner and his shabbos goy daughter are in the white house running everything.

You all have very cold takes on the issue.

>>15044197
the only way it will ever happen is if there is some kind of shit with the banks giving out housing loans and the kikes getting to greedy. Its going to take awhile for this sort of shit to happen kikes saw what happened when they got to greedy they have to forget about it a little before it happens again. Also they obviously know that if a collapse were to happen jews would be targeted more then ever before. Economic collapse will only accelerate the anti-semitism you are seeing now. Kind of ironic that we are slowly seeing it already. We are in the collapse now just its happening slowly.

>>15044170
this nigger is going to die

>>15042569

Everyone's looking at - and thus preparing for - Deutschebank. Black swan events are often occluded by perceptual blind spots that only autists lack. That said, here's my top picks:

>Italian minibot
>The Siege of Hong Kong being livestreamed to every person with an internet connection
>The Big One popping off in California
>Q is real

>>15043958
Your best option is to join the military. Sure the pay will be shit when the recession comes, but as long as you pick a support role (something not on the front lines) you'll be alive.

>>15044170
Wrong guy man

>>15044279
You pol fags are so fucking cringe. No dumbfuck YOU have the cold take. God fucking dammit I wish I could genocide retards like you from the internet and our species.

Just because trump supports Israel doesn’t mean he supports the Marxist Jews who control the west and the petrodollar system.

“Bbut Hurr durr rheyre all jews and all on the same page! I’m an incel polcuck and I need to blame the Jews for all my problems”

Want to know how I know you have

1. Never been to Israel and spoken to Israeli extremists and
2. Had Ashkenazi jew friends in the west?

Because you have no fucking clue what the duck is going on and can’t separate your own incel cope from the truth. Now kys

>>15044170
>>15044314
He isn't wrong the government will come for you when its on its way out. People who think hur dur GOLD SILVER bullshit don't realize that the government will be upheld by people without anything to lose. Think of the president as a warlord or region has its own specific government. They will come to your shitty cabin and kill you if you dont give them what they want. Doesnt matter where you live.

>>15044328
I would have but cant due to moral issues with it, guess I'm choosing suffering

>>15044279
And btw this is not a defense of either, I hate them both. But there is a big big fucking difference between supporting religious Jews in Israel and then cow-tailing to the deepstate/banning cartel agenda

>>15044218

They won't get the chance to pull the economy out from under Trump. They will try, but Trump has a...trump card.

>>15044347
Hurr durr muh moral values.

Castrate yourself now you weak bitch, you don’t deserve to survive anyways

>>15044347
>moral issues
oh you're a libcuck you were doomed from the start

>>15044355
He has no card you fukking idiot. The fed will reduce their balance sheet as they are continuing to do so until something snaps. And when it does trump will be fukt since none of the plebs voting understand what the fuck the federal reserve is. And he will be voted out

Nothing is going to collapse. The fundamentals are actually pretty sound. I know you watched The Big Short and are now a huge expert, but step off the ledge. Periods of slow growth are a function of the global economic order and always have been.

>>15044377
Here’s your ((You)) dumbfuck. Holy fuck at how low iq you faggots are. Just fucking kill yourselves

>>15044335
>Just because trump supports Israel doesn’t mean
Its not just his support of israel its the fact that he has done nothing but lie through his teeth about every one of his promises.
Here is a big ass list for you:
https://youtu.be/ExKramsqmyU
>doesn’t mean he supports the Marxist Jews who control the west and the petrodollar system.
You really don't know do you.
>marxist jews
LOL biggest joke ive ever heard. Globalist jews and zionist jews you dumb shit. Both are terrible.
>>15044348
All jews including YOU are back stabbing scum.

>>15044337
i dont think the people who moved to the cabin is worried about the government, they worried of the starving many. Generally it will take a while for normies to get to them. I guess you can call them preppers.

>>15044279
this is not only about the kikes. there are other players around (chinese, big corps, democrats and other people of the establishment) who will bring down trump.

>>15044386
None of your wingnut conspiracies hold any water. I can tell by your prose you're another mentally ill LINK hodler that's teetering on the edge of roping.

>>15044377
>he watches jew shows

>>15042619
Total bullshit, Japan is going to start the shitstorm and then Mexico will buy a wall... to keep burgers out.

>>15043216
This guy gets it. Everything about this cycle hinges on that being the common wisdom.

Plus, index buyers and their "rock-solid 8% YOY returns" fucking murdered the bond market by dropping the demand for it. Look at boomer portfolio allocations on average - they're like 70% equities and 30% bonds. Retarded given how old they are. Fuckers will be living on sawdust and cat food in "retirement" because of this shit.

With the bond market murdered and the Fed's ZIRP environment, money looking for actual returns had to turn to silly speculative investments - aka venture capital. Bonds weren't paying shit, so maybe investing in 100 shitty startups and landing a "unicorn" would make for a real return on capital. Seriously, people looking to make money had to bet the farm on probabilistic investments because there was no stable lending market to get easy returns from, outside of Treasuries. That led to the funding of Ubers and Lyfts and other never-profitable enterprises, who - in a beautiful, karmic act of index-buyer-fucking - will soon become part of those index portfolios.

And no one has noticed this erosion of the financial markets' foundation. Consider that at least half of that venture capital money invested in dumb startups got spent on products made by Big Tech - suddenly it's easy to explain their meteoric share price growth in the last decade. When you're trying to build the "Uber for Toilets," you start paying for Amazon Web Services, Facebook Ads, Google Ads, Apple MacBooks, Microsoft Office, etc. Index buyers benefited from the insanity, because Big Tech's growth compensated fully for the mediocre growth everywhere else in the economy, as the buyback race was in full swing in real industries.

Watch what happens when the last of the boomers retire in 2022. They'll start selling their equities, and the financially crippled millennial generation will not have the money to buy them. Huge sell pressure across all industries. Chaos.

>>15044388
You don’t need to convince me he hasn’t made good on his promises you fucking stupid piece of festering human shit. He lies because he’s a delusional shameless self promoting narcissist. You retards think he’s playing some 4d chess with a hidden agenda? LMAO the absolute state of you mouth breathers

Globalist jews are atheist marxists who cope with their subhumanity through marxism and seeking to establish a socialist utopia. They in general are at best slightly supporting of Israel and at worst actively countering its agenda. You have literally no clue why you’re talking about because for you it’s all autistic online knowledge from fellow incel mouthbreathers egging each other on to cope with your inceldom—you have never actively interacted with the sorts of Jews you’re discussing. The truth is that what’s actually going on is much more complex than your cope has you believe

Lmao. Yeah keep coping polcuck. I’m not a Jew, I hate jews, and I actually have extensive experience interacting them with irl, something an incel like you who is looking for someone to blame for his faps to Jew porn in his moms basement has no fuckingclue about

>>15044314
Little ID, big truth

>>15044401
The governments will be starving and they will come.
>>15044418
I agree but jews run it all. The people in those big corps, the democrats and establishment are run by kikes and crypto/shabbos goy.
>who will bring down trump.
they don't need to do anything. Trump is doing it himself because he has given into jews or he was already controlled by them.
>>15044456
not reading

>>15044452
Yea ok this is what we call a cyclical recession. It's probably something you've never been alive for but it's not the end of the world and only usually lasts six or so months.

>>15044502
Young people in their 20's are terrified of the word "recession" because most of us are only old enough to fully remember the 2008 "Great" recession.

So younger people freak the fuck out when they read that a recession is happening/will happen. Don't blame us.

>>15044452
Could you go into more detail about the boomers retiring aspect please?

>>15044539
Yes but isn't the point is that every recession only puts a bandaid over an ever widening wound? It's a crash decades in the making.

>>15044554
w-what happens when it finally crashes?

>>15044502
Because there's just no way that we get another liquidity crisis when the trillions of debt and derivatives can't be unloaded.

>>15044493
Yikes at this incel cope. Absolute cringe

>>15044554
Well it feels like every new recession will become greater and greater until we hit a real crash.

>>15044570
I don't know I'm not informed about this stuff. I come to /biz/ to learn.


>>15044582
Culturally we're one step away from pedos becoming a recognised group. We need a crash to set things right.

This is a useful thread and I'm trying to learn from it, so thanks.
There's just one thing I don't understand, when the last recession hit, people couldn't pay back loans and were defaulting on their mortgages, I seen house and land prices plummet for quick sales as the banks we're trying to recouperate their losses and dispose of unwanted assets.
Yet a lot of anons are suggesting buying real estate in anticipation of the crash, why would it not make sense to wait until the real estate owners are desperate before buying? For example about 6-9 months into the crash?
Am I a brainlet?

>>15044539
2008 was massive, this time the debt has increased 10 folds, while boomers is hording everything. So you can't blame them for worrying about their future, after all when you die, they are the one who is going to inherit the mess you created.

>>15042708
>Iran hijacking oil tankers and blocking the Persian Gulf.
Not a threat.
It looks like a threat now and will continue to look like a threat in the near future but I will have personally rendered all OPEC nations politically irrelevant by the year 2035

>>15044579

>>15044335
>Implying the petrodollar system is some magical conspiracy when in reality it was just Nixon being clever and buying himself room to spend more money

Don't let the polfags get to you bro.

We dropped the gold standard for the petrodollar because we had already printed more money than we had to back it in our gold reserves, and we needed to continue to deficit spend to fight the proxy battles of the Cold War. The immediate aftermath was the US getting fucked by stagflation and dumb loose Fed policy in the 70s. Volcker had to tighten and start a crippling recession in the early 80s to snap the US out of it. Then we dicked the Middle East in Desert Storm and the petrodollar system became solidified - if you sell oil for something that is not dollars, we will kill you. The demand from other nations for dollars allowed us to print indiscriminately and minimize the inflation rate we experienced - essentially every first-world nation needed to have a stockpile of USD on hand if they wanted to feed their energy demand. This was really useful because we could essentially access oil for super cheap - because we could just make money out of thin air to buy it, and a gigantic global marketplace evolved around it.

However, the petrodollar system will soon die and we don't have to give a fuck, because US shale is now cheaper than Saudi crude. We have no use for OPEC anymore; they can't supply-shock the system like they did in the 70s because our engineers outsmarted them and managed to extract oil from shale at scale and cheaply. The US is now effectively totally energy independent, so there is no longer a reason to fuck with foreign wars at all. Only a small portion of our GDP is dependent on global trade (something like 8% last I checked), so even if we totally shut off to the outside world, it wouldn't have a dramatic impact. Maybe a yearlong recession at worst.

We'll go back to our old isolationist ways while the world burns. As it should be.

>>15044619
Pls help me understand if I'm being stupid

>>15044431
It's not a show. It's a movie you fucking spastic. And quite honestly should be required viewing to post here.

>>15044619
no is telling to buy real estate it is the opposite. They are telling you to put it in defensive dividend stocks.

>>15042633
>no it ain't
don't be an autist.
It might as well be the debt is so out of control.

total global debt is almost 250 trillion.
about 87 trillion global GDP
300% of 87 is 260
close enough

>>15044850
i see so that's where you get your resources from, a movie.

>>15044540
Look for the bulge in the 55-59 year old demographic - that's the central chunk of baby boomers. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2019/

Right now, that bulge is mostly paying for the social benefits (Social Security, Medicare, etc.) of the roughly ~16.4% of Americans older than 65. They also have loads of nominal capital that has accumulated from their passive index investments. But they're still employed and generating tax revenue for federal and state governments.

When that bulge (comprising roughly 25% of the US population) hits age 65+, the capital flow switches, and the Gen Xers, Millennials, and Zoomers have to pay for _their_ social benefits, while they pay for almost nothing (consumption decreases dramatically when you're on a fixed income). Assuming normal mortality rates, it is likely that somewhere from 20-24% of the US population will be drawing full benefits, and they will live into their late 70s/early 80s on average.

The general theory is that the Boomers with investments will start selling them off in order to maintain their standard of living when they retire because the social safety net cannot keep up - but there will not be enough people to absorb those sold investments. So they will have to sell them for a lower price than they are nominally worth now, and they will do so en masse because they're too old to wait out the next macro cycle. Huge sell pressure will drive all equity prices down, because Gen X is not big enough to absorb all the assets, and the millennials are financially crippled due to their gigantic debt loads.

>>15044619
Learn basic farming and how the basics about shooting/defending a positing. After you got it, buy secluded and fertile land.
People are underestimating how bad shit will really be, gains won't be made by "dividends" or "moonings" but by looting the carcasses of the unprepared.

>>15043216
>all it takes for everything to come tumbling down is a change in sentiment.
Just look at the bear market only about 8 months ago. It's like people have already forgotten. The S&P made no gains for 500 days from 2018 till last may.

>>15044570
>w-what happens when it finally crashes?
same thing as last time: liquidity crisis, devaluation, defaults, layoffs, foreclosures, sad people, suicides etc

>>15044871
Well given that it goes into detail about the 2008 recession; yes.
Pol really fucked up your head son.

>>15043216
Spot on anon. There are a few people who have warned of this but it hasnt been taken seriously yet. The reddit weak hands talk like they can handle a downturn and reach their financial independence with safe withdrawal rates. We will see when we drop 10% in a day and the circuit breakers go off if they mean that still.

>>15043958
Just develop skills and money. This next crash wont be the big one. They arent ready yet. Their plan for global nation less consumers isnt ready yet. So you have time to create generational wealth still.

>>15044885
really not that big of a bubble compared to some other places. you are only talking about an additional 1% of the population.

>>15045072
you are projecting quite a lot and that suggest you probably hang around in that area quite too much. Not everyone on biz goes there, nevertheless pol generally have unfiltered information so their resource hold more credibility then a bias video that show one sided argument.

>>15044619
No, you're not. Totally legitimate question, and I wish there were more macro-threads like this on /biz/.
If you look at the overall sentiment over the last years, everything's okay in the economy. Look at biz, and you will find people who see it like that or either think we're at the edge of armageddon.
Should you buy real estate as hedge during the crash?
That depends entirely on your analysis: is housing part of the big bubble or not?
I think to myself, yeah, it's a part of it. Look at China buying up flats and houses in the states. Price Indices for real estate. But not the most overpriced.
If you don't know much about investing, you can build a diversified portfolio of stocks, crypto, real estate, cash and bonds, equal share of your portfolio and at the end of each year you look to bring it back to the 20% ratio of each part. Historically you would've not only gained ~9%/y, but also very stable (low volatility) 9%. Look up Harry Browne, the "permanent portfolio"

>>15042721
They got trillions of derivatives. The can't print this one out . We are fucked

>>15045108
No you just come off as pol schizo. My only interaction with them is on biz.

>>15045108
you little fucking asshole, you think you're the brightest psychoanalytic don't you? Even if "The Big Short" left out important parts, it is the most comprehensive and entertaining movie ever made on such a complex topic as the 08 crisis

>>15043207
The crash is here now buy bitcoin and commodities. I'm serious anon do it for our kids

>>15045106
Sometimes things don't go according to plan.

>>15044682
>Only a small portion of our GDP is dependent on global trade (something like 8% last I checked)

8%...but that counts NAFTA as "global trade." If you subtract NAFTA, it's like 3%.

>>15044348
Kowtowing

>>15044377
Checked. I don't think anons understand the true scope of fiat currency. This show can literally be dragged along until the heat death of the universe.

Ppl panic selling stocks now are going to kill themselves. It literally will continue to trend upwards. The QE bucks have nowhere else to really go.

>>15042521
Which one? Housing? Credit cards? Student loans? Auto loans? There are plenty of bubbles waiting to pop out here.

>>15043871
Even if you can get just $2000-3000 into assets per year, you should have a nice chunk of money working for you when you're in your 20's.

Daily reminder that nothing is gonna happen

>>15044682
You realize that the vast majority of dollars are euro dollars overseas right? The moment the petrodollar collapses they will send all those dollars back regardless of who is producing wht oil, and the US will enter a hyperinflationary collapse

>>15042521
>What black swan event could cause markets to finally crash?

>Car industry get's rekt
>Milenials never buy homes
>Milenials renting mean they never enter adulthood as most of their income goes to basic survival
>GDP slows down so much it only grows 1% with 0% interest rates because milenials and zoomers lack income to buy crap
>Boomers have their retirement fucked up by inflation
>Boomers rent instead of selling to compensate their shitty retirement
>They only spend on basic goods like milenials
>The entire economy starts to slow down even tough there are 0% interest rates.
>Recessions start to happen very slowly first with -1% gdp "growth".
>Then -2%
>Central banks go full negative interest rates
>This fucks pensions even more and milenial wages are not upgraded for inflation even tough they earn less.
>Economy grows at 1.5% again
>Bitcoin goes to 100k
>BCH to 37k
>LTC to 6k
>Gold to 4k
>The economy keeps slowing down because wages and retirement have not been upgraded to this new inflation.
>Interest rates are in the negative but even more
>People buy crypto and gold fast as fuck because their savings are destroyed.
>Crypto and gold are banned but they keep growing as the negative interest rates fuck fiat more, it's not as much as crypto or gold increasing in price as fiat is lossing.
>GDP "growth" -3%
>Extreme political movements such as communsim or fascism start to gain strenght.
>They get elected
>Print more money fucking things more.
>The western civilization that rise from the dark ages collapses back into another dark age.

You would be suprised to realize how advanced into this shit we already are , probably 40% of the entire thing i described.

>>15044885
thank you anon, that's very well written.

>>15045605
This, I'll believe it when I see it.

2 issues I see in particular.

1. The concerns with boomers cashing out causing a market crash doesn't account for the fact that boomers are going to work longer, because they're going to live longer, particularly the ones in nonphysical white collar jobs (and these are the ones who probably hold the most in index funds). Automation is going to be joke that won't take ANY significant amount of white collar jobs.

2. The US Dollar is not going to collapse, even if the petrodollar status is lost. Why? What the hell is more practical: burning it all down and somehow re-issuing a new non-inflationary (initially) currency OR just keeping the same system going? People are so uninterested and detached these days who's going to potentially literally fight to establish a new currency. If crypto takes off, it will ONLY be because it's regulated, it's taxed, and it allows for greater data collection of users than fiat otherwise could.

>>15042708
I definitely could see (((them))) trying to pull another false flag with Iran in another six months before the election. They know there isn't enough tricks in the playbook to keep this bubble going, set the reset button and start WW3.

>>15044885
Sooooooo long crypto and buy-up stocks after?

>>15044335
jew detected.

in the oven you go.

>>15044328
>Your best option is to join the Israeli foreign legion
please gys

>>15044348
>>15044363
>>15044355
>>15044348
>>15044335
>15044335
>>15044187

this kike:
>don't move to the woods goyim, you're safer in cities
>there is nothing wrong with Trump supporting Israel and giving Netanyahoo everything he wants
>join the military pussy and go die for Iran

>>15044376
You're wrong kike faggot. He most definitely has a TRUMP CARD. I hear people like Gundlach and Schiff say this, socialism will get elected when economy tanks and Trump will lose. OMG HOW CAN TRUMP WIN IF ECONOMY TANKS!

I will tell you how.

He will play the card he has always played: racism. He will up the rhetoric and feed his supporters the red meat they want to hear. Your boogie man Richard Spencer said it correctly on CNN, he is the drunk uncle watching Hanity. He ultimately won't do shit for white people but it will be funny.

I want to see negative GDP growth in 2020 just to see this. Imagine Trump just calling out all the nigger congressmen blaming them for it lol. He will be doing shit like that believe me. He'll just use brown and black people as the reason our economy is in the shitter and it will be EPIC.

There will be no "recession" or "downturn."

Just erosion of the value of the dollar to a second world status currency. Because that is what we'll be. A second world shithole.

It already is in most places and we just haven't come to terms with it. When if finally does it'll be too late to turn the ship. There will be no "collapse" just civilizational decline.

>>15042521
So when the fuck will this shit happen, I want to see CHAOS in the streets like pic related

>>15046060
Trump has never played that card you fucking retard. All that happens is he calls out corruption in the government and the left shouts "RACIST!" because they have no excuse for their behavior. He has already been distancing himself from the Fed and he would probably do something drastic to it if they gave him nothing to lose. Unfortunately Trump is not actually the bigot everyone likes to paint him as. He is obviously redpilled on kikes from living in NYC but you can't just nuke them outright. In case you haven't noticed he gives his enemies enough rope to hang themselves and then the hammer drops. Notice for example that he didn't even mention Baltimore until $16 Billion dollars passed through their district. Now they are going to get fucked because they don't have an explanation for it. Anyway try not to derail an otherwise interesting bread with your shitty posts. My hope is that everything gets rekt because otherwise we are slowly slipping into brazil status as a country. Even in the worst case scenario, and I understand what some anons are getting at ITT when they examine how bad things could be, the US is lucky to be in a position as an energy/food exporter whereas the countries getting nailed with tariffs are the opposite. A heavy recession would utterly fuck the EU, China, and others much worse than USA. Seeing something like the minibot with italy go down would be pretty interesting, however.

>>15046178
I don't understand this fantasizing over a collapse. We've grown up with things like warm water from a tap, access to medical care, easy access to food. We don't even understand how 90% of the things we use in daily life even works. I'll take "meaningless" modern comfort over some fantasies of war and chaos.

>>15046006
>in the oven you go.

LOLz all the trolling bullshit/pol/
anonNAZI here can't even cope

>>15046303
I'd rather die fast in this world of pain with guns blazing seeing as it's an illusion rather than live in a meaningless world.

>>15045155
no one here claimed anything but our information come from our own research based on resources of the internet that we gather and argued about. You are on the other hand have nothing to contribute, go back to whatever you came from and continue being a sheep, for when the time come we will be shorting you.
>>15045150
You claimed everyone here watches the big short and now they have becoming and expert. I was simply pointing out your stupidity and arrogance to assume you know more than the anons here who have argued dailies. Our resources dont come from entertainment.

>>15046060
>He'll just use brown and black people as the reason our economy is in the shitter and it will be EPIC
Well, then Trump would actually be telling the truth for once wouldn't he?

anyone telling you to buy btc in this thread, is braindead zoomer mongoloid

bitcoin is not a store of value, dont get fucked over internet memes

>>15046060
>He'll just use brown and black people as the reason our economy is in the shitter
So our Emperor will just do the same as Hitler did?

>>15043859
What do you think the odds those ETFs are backed by nothing but paper and air?

>>15046537
Germany didn't have a significant amount of brown and black people and Hitler rarely talked about them.

The hot button issue in Hitler's time was fighting Germany's socialists and Jews.

>>15044323
>The Big One popping off in California
Insider here. This. When Cali goes under,(closer than expected) the entire world market goes under.

>>15044452
>>15044885
>2022
What's a debtless zoomer to do in this timeframe? Studying engineering and I'd be in grad school by then.

>>15046574
>The hot button issue in Hitler's time was fighting Germany's socialists
How can someone be so retarded

>>15044124

>take out loans at negative rates
>dump in crypto
>get paid by (((them))) to suck money out of the system and over to crypto
>profit from btc at the same time

become the jew anon

>>15044170
A slampig unlocks the greatest investment of all, anon. The gift of life.
A newborn is more valuable than any amount of gold, guns, crypto, or real estate.

>>15044081
>Watch for the signs that a collapse is a short-term possibility
What would those signs be?

>>15047082
>>>15044081
>>Watch for the signs that a collapse is a short-term possibility
>What would those signs be?
When the junk credit spreads blow out

>>15044570
We enter a time of chaos and turmoil. This is somewhat like the lead-upto the great depression. I doubt anyone can predict what will come out of it. Very likely, there'll be whole lot of financial suffering, unemployment, homelessness etc.. rapid political and social change with extreme ideas coming to the forefront (much more than they have already) and maybe even WW3. It's all speculation though.

>>15046299
He is a racist. The whole argument, "He hates socialists, they hate America." Yeah because they're all brown. He doesn't attack Bernie the same way and there is a reason.

"It's a distraction from the $16 billion for a wall!" Yeah keep waiting on that bud. I am not saying Trump isn't good. He is changing the culture. But expecting him to get anything done politically ain't gonna happen.

WW3:
China /South seas / Taiwan >>>/news/433882

>>15044619
Are those anons talking about buying real estate as a hedge investment, or are they talking about buying farmland outside the city as a hedge for collapse? The two are very different.
Maybe some anons are expecting a hyperinflation scenario, in which case, the value of dept you take on for a mortgage would shrink to essentially nothing.

>>15045634
what a based and redpilled post my good lad

>>15046307
I am not a nazi. And pol is lame.

The idea America has to continually look out after these kikes in the middle of their stupid patch of desert is fucking retarded and more the reason I hate them.

In fact I hate the Israelis more than the SJW Marxist Jews. Because they will eventually lead society off the edge of a cliff. The Israelis leach off of our military and want us to start endless bullshit for them and then get stupid American right wingers to want to go kill muslims. I hate them both nonwithstanding, but the smarter ones are the Israelis and that makes them more dangerous.

>>15046537
Imagine actually saving an anti-Hitler meme, and using it against anons on 4chan in arguments. Get in the oven you Jew scumbags

>>15047241
>>15047269
Tell me, what happened after first and second world wars. Debt and the beginnings of the destruction of the family unit in the west (which you perhaps may not care much about) were some of the outcomes. I realize China and Iran are not friendly countries and their own issues and intentions.

There are NO good outcomes from large scale, modern industrial warfare, even if weapons like nukes are avoided by all sides.

Don't fall for that shit. Question everything and find out who benefits from all of this.

>>15047312
Oh look here yet another psycho garlic shooter

>>15047346
there absolutely is a benefit to it, just not for us. A depression will most likely lead to such a thing as finger started to be point. This is a result of social collapse, no one wants it. But the world seem to lead to that direction, hopefully people are awake and turn to a different direction.

>>15047365
GAS THE KIKES!!! RACEWAR NOW!!!

>>15047346
>Question everything and find out who benefits from all of this.
I always had a tough time accepting the idea that anyone is really in control of this mess. I just see a bunch of various individuals, corporations and ideologues trying to push their own selfish best interests which always ends up fucking over the common man.

>>15047100
>When the junk credit spreads blow out
Where's the best place to watch them?

>>15042708
You’re a dirty fucking Jew

>>15043732
Enjoy getting mugged by starved people.

>>15043374
Well that beats wagecucking, if that becomes the case. Then again I'll probably quit the moment they micromanage my bathroom usage and list me unpaid for the duration.

>>15046178
>>15046319
edge to the lord

not gonna happen mad max

>>15045634
Gonna be honest. I want to see what that looks like. Beats working my garbage job.

>>15047426
I did not mean it in the sense of pointing out a single group, like the jews or whatever (although, Israel and Iran aren't friendly). More a general statement of basically what you mentioned, and we can only know so much about funding for logistics or the underlying economic concerns that are actually driving a war (whether that an oil pipeline with a different resource backed currency, or whatever). But by understanding who benefits, we can better judge whether or not we agree with the intentions of a war, imo.

>>15047433
>>>15047100 (You)
>>When the junk credit spreads blow out
>Where's the best place to watch them?
Watch rising yields on ETFs like JNK HYG or BKLN

See the long term chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
Shows the yield spread over the treasury rate

>>15046539
dunno, they could overstate their holdings pretty easily, but I'm pretty sure those guys get audited pretty hard.

>>15043810
Can you see it happening in a month?

>>15044307
So many people know about jews now. I moved to LA an Ubered for a couple years hustking and talked to lots of people. Liberal as fuck people want to hang kikes, mexicans are going to be slaughtering kikes in LA before you know it. They already just go around and kill blacks for being black. If the economy tanks this shit will only accelerate, and I am from the south so i know all those southern boys have been irching for years...

It's going to be CLO's, or as the media is referring to it now the corporate junk bubble. I was actually posting about the CLO bubble and how many large companies even will have problems refinancing when the trump administration started raising intrest rates, and I called this almost 2 years ago and everybody ignored me, pic related is the farthest back screenshot I have on this phone, suddenly the media is spouting off about it everywhere last month and corporate junk was a hot topic at g20. So I'm bassically like Christian bale from the big short, thanks for coming to my ted talk goyim.

>>15043207
Buy crypto, dividend stocks, and real estate. Then hold your investments until you die.

>>15047631
>I am from the south
Lol you're a redneck... Who woulda guessed you racist NAZI fuck

>>15044864
>300% = "300 times"
You are a retard, dude.

2000: JUNK INTERNET COMPANIES
2008: JUNK SUB-PRIME LOANS
2020: JUNK CORPORATE BONDS

every financial crisis is started because people put in money in something that is going to lose value because it was over valued.

>>15045607
America would just burn the incoming currency dumbass. We’d be isolationist

>>15042772
dude negative interest rates do not mean that !!!

im not even going to try to convince biz at this point, the comments i read are just so blatently lacking of economic knowledge here.

just go read a book..........and have sex

>>15047644
Real estate? Way too overvalued right now.

>>15044418
china is completely controlled by the kikes you out of the loop newfag.

go read something for once in your life goyim

https://www.amazon.com/Silent-Weapons-Quiet-Wars-Introductory/dp/1585093807/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_14_t_0?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=MH3NQ0E7ARQVWHZS2B54

http://booksdescr.org/ads.php?md5=02F79513DEB7BAA0EF379C0761B630CC


hint: i'll think you'll find mr. rothschillds discovery about energy VERY interesting...

>>15042521
Yawn... fiat will crash/financial meltdown prophesies are the chicken little cries of the retarded.
Bring it on, idgaf ... but please stop with the "ids habbening!! Silber to 20k & gold to 1million an oz" bs. I have been hearing you cunts drone out the same line of shit since the day I was born &
Ids
Neber
Habbened

>>15047527
Definitely good advice anon.

>>15047549
Thank you kindly

>>15047293
Does it matter that one group of jews are a domestic threat and the other is an existential threat? Both are bad long term and wikl lead to our demise. Our families are destroyed and global tension is higher than ever. The jews are the worst thing to happen to the planet

>>15047647
I wasnt even racist till i moved to the west. Live around white people and then stop living sround white people. It’s easy to not be racist when you never meet them. And blacks/people in general are way worse in the west, we train ours better

Nothing ever happens.

>>15042521
I'm preparing. Farming crypto by shitposting on pocketnet.

https://pocketnet.app/userpage?id=wallet&ref=PL7RNWypccYBPsDAygW3H4aKfzGBwMeWyt&msocialshare=true

>>15047674
Your not wrong, but the guy you replied to is not wrong either. Your bank account does not actually exist as your money, it exists somewhere in a lump of money in a banks deposit within the federal reserves system, so if the bank deposits intrest is set negative by the fed there is exactly 0 reason your savings account intrest would not go negative as well considering the spread from interbank intrest on fed loans to your savings account is around less then .1% spread right now.
What negative rates is SUPPOSED to do as I'm sure you are aware is encourage more lending into both consumer and corporate markets to boost industry and get that GDP growth. In reality what happens, especially after glass steagle was repealed in the late 90's which suprise 3/4 major market crashes history have happened either before glass-steagle was enacted or after it was repealed, so in reality what happens is banks loan huge amounts of money to each other and other investment banks and then buy up every cheap as fuck asset they can get their hands knowing these negative rates and FDIC insured accounts will be bailed out in the case of them being the last buyer in this 0 intrest fueled global pump and dump credit megacycle.
FDIC insurance is a scam, there is not enough money in FDIC to cover almost any bank collapse other then a small credit union, so if consumers do get FDIC bailed out its going to be to the tune of trillions in government debt printing. Even worse is the fact the IMF has specifically said it is a better idea to bail in banks which is where your bank deposits are restructured into equity of the bank which supposedly then the equity will continue to grow from the newly restructured bank, again in reality this is akin to coinbase saying "we lost all your bitcoin using bitmex but here is our new coinbase shitcoin that will totally be worth a lot more one day so this is good actually"

Gonna make another small post to explain why the banks aren't at fault desu

>>15047743
this is how we it will happen

>>15046124
Slow Burn.

>>15047766
How the what did you say?

>>15047777
Wasted.

>>15042521
The adoption of TRV

>>15047777
wasted indeed, also i forget to add the word know

>>15047631
that is why kikes will not allow the economic crash. Family men and normies will not be open about there antisemitism because they fear there families life. When they dont have any jobs left they will have nothing holding them back.

>>15046124
There isn’t even a foreseeable alternative. Everything else to volatile. The dollar “losing value” doesnt matter. Volatilitity is what matters, we are stable as fuck and trustworthy. Nothing else in the world is even stable not to mention trustworthy

>>15047765
So bassically yes these banks are owned by kikes and are in bed with the government who lets them write whatever laws they want now, but they are getting a lot of the blame where they shouldn't be. Occupy wallstreet should have been Occupy the Federal reserve, the fed is the one pulling the strings on these market crashes. There is literally no way for a bank to stay competitive in an enviroment where the government is literally paying you to give out bad home loans to niggers and letting you borrow with zero intrest in an enviroment where everything but low risk assets besides government bonds are returning +10%. The fed literally shoves money in the banks faces telling them to get the economy working again, and your gonna have some very mad shareholders if you decide to put that money away into a federally mandated cash cushion or to put that money into clearly sub-optimal safe assets.
So bassically you cant have your cake and eat it, either the government has to admit it is a corporation and monopolize itself by letting all US citizens become shareholders of this US corporation to directly profit themselves from a communist system where taxes will be high by citizen choice, or else you have to declare the government inept and stop taxing people, stop running a central bank, and get rid of all regulation. This semi governmental semi private system is what has led to government titty sucking buisnesses like the banks.

>>15046640
buy the dip

I work at Deutche bank. The atmosphere there has been shit for a long time but its been getting significantly worse recently, and now theyre firing 20% of the staff and just looking for any excuse to get rid of dead weight.
This last week is worse than ever.
Today the regional boss walked in on a meeting with a gun in his hand and just said "its over folks".
Then he took off his pants, lay down on the table, wrapped both legs behind his head and started to self suck before putting the gun against his head and pulling the trigger.

>>15042521
Pic related

>>15048280
i was in the metting, you forgot the extensive use of a butt plug

>>15048280
I've been to that meeting, it was fun.

>>15042521
A market cycle top is not a financial crisis, it’s just the end of an expansion.

Why do you keep making the same damn claims? An economic contraction is not the same thing as the financial crisis.

There’s something wrong with you anon, I think you’re just upset you couldn’t lock in any sweet stockmarket gains.

>>15048679
>>15048679
this whole shit just didnt crash because of the economic expansion. it will all come down now including a financial crisis aswell

>>15047765
>Your
followed by a bunch of unspaced paragraphs

Didn't read

>>15046011
kek

>>15044227
we owe money to the banking system not other countries or such. To a lot of the same people that are running things. It's gonna be complicated

>>15044218
this is what I've expected too. It was looking like they would push it out to 2024 but maybe not
>>15047685
Post PDFs nobodies ordering that

>>15043319
Why is Australia prices all fucked ? How are you doing heat wise(weather)? You guys don't have a jeopardized water/farming industry do you?

>>15044187
Watch out for ied's bro.

>>15043917
literally me

>>15048832
Those people involved are wealthy beyond measure. If they aren't new employees they can be returned for new and cheap, also block chain will save banks alot of money. Bank blockchains/crypto may be the only option that boomers trust to get involved in, it only needs to be better/cheaper than the system before. A better system will be more stable and secure, that's all we want really, a stable and secure store of wealth without shitty tricks.

Just wanna say these threads are fkn sick. Thank you based anons for sharing your knowledge.

Hold your family’s close today. The modern era ends at 2:30

>>15046860
Cuck

I live in poor central European country and i have 35k usd in cash. What is biz recomendation. Should i wait a crash and buy stocks?

>nobody ITT realizes the grand solar minimum will wash the whole world in freezing cold
>nobody realizes how bad things can get without the global agricultural trade

The best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry.

>>15042569
germans. again. when will we learn that they are the cause of literally every misery on this planet?

>>15044363
>>15044366
Except I'm extremely right wing, faggots, I'm sorry you're comfortable working for the US government and Israel

>>15047393
hello abdul, naaa, eradicate mudslimes first

>>15042521
Why even worry about this when new-cycle alts (see : 2019) are about to begin... like UND (Unification)? Seems rather silly, especially considering these markets are peanuts comparatively.

>>15045072
>if you dont trust my video source then you must be /pol/
KYS retarded boomer, just because you find an article or official seeming video doesnt mean its inherently factual or that its analysis of the facts it presents are correct

>>15045634
10/10 post

>>15046319
Diamond cutting edge

>>15043229
How? If you sold at the bottom?

>>15046845
I wonder how this will be contered.

>>15047312
This

>>15044218
>bankers dont love trump with all their heart

>>15047647
t. Nigger

>>15047640
How could a young anon benefit from this?

>>15043216
I keep thinking that anyone smart enough to learn about index funds realizes it's 10% ON AVERAGE and IN THE LONG RUN, but perhaps I'm giving the average "investor" too much credit. Half of them don't manage it all let alone take advantage of the funds with things like margin loans.

>>15050677
Based and GSM-pilled

>>15051858
kek I do this, I just use a roboadvisor to do all my stuff for me. I don't know how to do any of the cool shit in /smg/ like margins, puts, or shorts or anything.

>>15042772
Could you imagine how fucked the real estate market would be if we hit negative rates?

>>15042596
>property loans
same as 2008 then I suppose

>>15050938
lol. you know that Paul Achleitner worked for Goldman Sachs and has ruined Deutsche Bank? They paid huge bonuses despite huge losses. They want to ruin Deutsche because they know that germany will be screwed without a bank (german corporation will get loan from american banks-> they will be dependent and will have to pay interest rates-> the kikes win). germany is so fucking screwed. they will also have to pay for the whole debt of the euro zone

>>15042521
Crash will hit end of Trump 2nd term end of story

>>15048280
Heinrich, what the fuck?
Didn't you read the memo that was passed to everyone after the meeting?
We weren't supposed to talk about it. Bet you told your wife about it too, huh? You're getting shaven bald next

>>15044218
This. Biden will be the next president, 100%.

>>15044218
I'd say it will happen AFTER the 2020 elections when Trump wins. Israel still needs 4 more years of Trump to solidify its borders.