/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>14875145
Based TA anon.
I have a different question today, have you ever directly profited from TA? As in noticing a bubble or something extremely oversold from your analysis and then making gains as predicted? If so, can you detail your last example of such a situation?

I always see a lot of 'Gold vs BTC' pattern comparisons, where the Monthly Gold pattern is being compared to the Daily BTC pattern, and I don't disagree that sure BTC will follow a similar pattern to BTC.
But I think we're all being blindsided by the fact that we're all expecting bullish sentiment straight away and are biased into thinking that the shorter time time frame on the Daily BTC will follow the longer term Monthly Gold patterrn

>Just a comparison of the similar/same pattern across BTC Daily, Gold Weekly (which is the precursor to the Monthly pattern which most are assuming BTC will follow), and the Gold Daily (which was the precursor to the Gold Weekly pattern)

It's my belief that BTC will have to complete the lower time frame pattern on the Daily chart before it ever attempts the Weekly longer time frame pattern, and then before it ever attempts the Monthly pattern.

1. Test of the mean.
2. The retest to see if it can hold the mean.
3. Price stalls before it gets too bearish , participants weary of a bear market.
4. The test of the mean from below, which holds, followed by the tests of the upper bands to push the market into a bullish sentiment. It's looking successful short term, prices are driven higher.
5. BTC/Gold fails to hold the upper lowest band (1.25 multiplier), price falls to the mean, trades under the mean, trades above the mean in a narrow range, fails to do anything significant at all, dumps.
6. New pattern on the higher time frame has emerged, the pattern continues.

>>14875365
That's a specific situation Anon, you can profit from a variety of ways, be it oversold, overbought, sideways. Most importantly is first the time frame which is 'holding the attention' of the participants who have the power to move the markets.
I can't give you an example of a trade I took on REN/BTC?
What I think is more important is the reasoning and the factual reasons why the trade worked out, which then can be applied to literally every other asset.
I'll post proof of the trade here then explain why I took it based on the approach I use.

>>14875365
>>14875667
>RENBTC on 17JUL2019 @ 1630UTC

1. I was basically looking to see if price could hold the DAILY upper 1.25 benchmark, it was the area of most obvious support on the longest time frame, all i was doing was waiting and watching until price reached the area of most uncertainty. The Daily 1.25 was also lining up with the 4H mean, so the real question was whether participants would step in on the 4H time frame to keep price above the Daily 1.25.
2. I saw price dipping well below the 4H mean was was a red flag that maybe the Daily upper 1.25 wouldn't be able to hold at all, so of course I use the lower time frame charts to confirm/deny. I saw on the 1H chart that price had failed to convincingly close below the lower 1H lower 2.2 benchmark (which would have confirmed or denied WITH CONVINCING CLOSES CONSECUTIVELY) that price indeed was atleast not going to hold the 4H mean, or going to hold the 4H mean.
3. I then went down to the 5M timeframe to confirm the 1H movements, when I opened the 5M chart, the price had failed to CONVINCINGLY close below the lower 2.2 at #2 and then again at #3, smells like bullish sentiment to me.

Then I looked for a bullish confirmation by price breaching the 5M upper 2.2, which on the day it happened, coincidentally (or not) was the DAILY UPPER 1.25 and the 4H MEAN. This gave me confidence that the shorter time frames were for sure holding, so I had reason to believe that atleast in the SHORT TERM, prices were headed up and away from the 4H MEAN.
I used MACD/incoming VOLUME to reaffirm my decision and tried buying as close to the DAILY 1.25/4H MEAN as possible (while also factoring in that I needed convincing confirmation).
I bought at 685, knowing that at least in the short term, price wouldn't breach below that because of the DAILY UPPER 1.25.
>The arrow points to the rough time that I bought, only because the 5M was exhibiting signs of bullish sentiment, sure I could have waited for the pullbacks, guess I was rash.

>>14875365
>>14875667
>>14875833

I could have definitely waited for the slight pullback, but for me I was confident enough in my approach to realise that the inital 5M breach of the UPPER 2.2 would be enough, BUT for safety I SHOULD HAVE waited for the 15M chart to confirm that price would be trading above the mean for the next 100 or so candles, if I had waited for that, I could have increased my position by 3-5%.
>Can't make perfect trades all the time

The highlighted area is where I would have kept an eye on to see for FURTHER confirmation that indeed we're headed up for the short term, I should have waited for prices to travel convincingly above the MEAN and then a solid breach of the 15M UPPER 2.2 or ther 5M UPPER 2.2.
I was a little over eager and expected a turn around straight away (which is stupid because even I know better than that, but emotions got the best of me at the time). The hardest period is waiting for the pullback, it always invokes the feeling of FOMO.

bumping, will post an XMR chart that someone had asked for yesterday but I didn't get round to doing.

>XMRBTC on 19JUL2019 @ 1700UTC
>Using the HITBTC chart because it has some of the highest volume recently, the BINANCE chart I feel is a little inaccurate.

I won't analyse the historical points, hopefully with the resources of the last two threads, the previous ups and downs are now a little clearer, and it's something you can take a crack at as practice. I'll focus solely on the short term because I guess that way someone could actually make a trade based on this quick analysis and confirm what I know to be true.

1. Preceeding the run up to try and attempt to hold the 4HOUR MEAN, price seemingly had stalled on ALL timeframes barring the DAILY, this is shown by the reluctance to CONVINCINGLY CLOSE below the LOWER 2.2 on the 4HOURLY and the 1HOURLY. The weekly of course showed a breach with candle close below it's own LOWER 2.2 benchmark, but the battle to keep it above that was taking place on the lower time frames as noted by the outlined white boxes which show price stalling FIRST on the 1HOUR time frame (the left most box, which brought the 4HOUR distribution closer away from the bearish sentiment) and the by the SECOND area which was visible on BOTH 1HOURLY and 4HOURLY time frames (the right most box, which clearly shows price convincingly staying above the LOWER 2.2 benchmarks, more so apparent on the 1HOURLY time frame where the resolution is clearer). This should have been the first red flags that price is uncertain about it's bearish sentiment.
Next I wanted to know why price closed the way it did at the top of #1, why didn't it reach the mean in one movement? The answer to this was the 1HOURLY time frame, sure price had attempted to reach the 4HOURLY mean, but it was held up by the lack of CONVINCING CLOSES ABOVE THE 1HOURLY UPPER 2.2, price spent about 12-15 candles attempting to keep the distribution moving UP but it failed once participants realised that the DAILY LOWER 2.2 was still very much in play.

>>14876654
2. Well where does that leave us now, we clearly saw the rejection for further movement on the 1HOURLY chart. We can see that price is now moving in a tight lateral range, which can be seen by the narrow BB bands on the 1HOURLY and visually on the 4HOURLY looking at the price action.
It seems most likely that if price on the 1HOURLY can convincingly hold above between the MEAN and LOWER 2.2 (which is a very narrow spread now, somewhere between 7666-8000) then a mean reversion to the 4HOURLY mean is likely. The distribution seems to trying to narrow out however, so the 4HOUR MEAN could possible drop much lower.

You could wait for the 1HOUR > 15M > 5M distribution time frames to confirm that there isn't any bearish sentiment left, then once you know that, BUY and wait to see how price reacts to the 4HOURLY MEAN (which would give you anywhere between 10-15% profit short term. If the 4HOUR mean holds (and holds according to lower timeframes) great news, you can then expect price to move to test the UPPER 4HOUR 1.25 of around ~10000.
This would all be subject to a keen eye keeping a look out for any weaknesses on lower time frames which would then confirm and reverberate on the higher time frames UPTO 4HOURLY.

>Buy if price can hold ~7825 convincingly
>Sell at ~8750
>Buy again if 4h mean hold convincingly
>Look to lower time frames to see if price is indeed moving to the upper 4h 1.25
>Confirm/deny
>Confirmed? Sell ~10000
>Denied? Sell on the attempt to push upwards so you make a slight profit.