/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>14855565

bumping, do the BTC chart, NOW!

EXPLAIN WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT


OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

also fellow anon, post all the booklist that you have readed, im interesed

>>14855638
Of course Anon, i'm not sure much will have changed from yesterday (obviously apart from the movements today), but I suggest you look back to the previous thread for some context.
>There are book suggestions in the previous thread, but honestly there are a few I don't remember the title/author. I'll try and put together a comprehensive list at post it, until then skim through the previous thread, there were atleast 4-5 mentioned that were worth reading for sure.

>>14855665
Explain what exactly? The 10% pump we just experienced in the last hour or so for BTC?

>>14855638
>BTC on 18JUL2019 @ 1500UTC

1. I guess you'd like an explanation for why price violently reacted away from ~9500. Look no further than the DAILY and 4HOURLY LOWER 1.25 CONTAINMENT ZONE. Price had been attempting to breach the DAILY LOWER 1.25, but if you not there is no close actually below the benchmark, if there HAD been a close below this benchmark, then the next available support area would have been the WEEKLY and MONTHLY LOWER 1.25 benchmark, somewhere wbetween 8500-8900 (again this would only apply up until the end of the WEEKLY/MONTHLY candles).
The price closing well above the DAILY LOWER 1.25 is obvious once you zoom in slightly. I've circled it and you can even see the blank space just under both the candles closest to the ~9419 price, this suggest a short term bullish opportunity, maybe only short enough to play out through this week and the end of the month. The price reacting to the DAILY LOWER 1.25 is also apparent on the 4HOURLY time frame where sure it was breached, but the DAILY chart confirmed that it wouldn't be taken lower, which is why you see the choppy in and out candle on the 4HOURLY chart as it attempted to break the 4HOURLY and DAILY LOWER 1.25 benchmarks. Again, this is reinforced by the volume that came in eventually. I'm sure if we had looked to the lower time frames we would have found the micro analysis needed to confirm the DAILY LOWER 1.25 hold earlier.

What is this pattern called?

Can you just quit your job and post in /biz/ forever? You'll be our dedicated TA bot.

>>14855565
vidt please man. interesting things happening

>>14856036
Just another point on the pattern of the candles on the 4HOURLY chart, just before the green candle came in. Candles were very very narrow spread in the time leading up to that, a suspicious sign of 'something' even if you don't know what's incoming, it would have been a red flag for something to happen, which should have made us pay closer attention.

>>14855565
requesting for Harmony dear based man

>>14856053
the bear juster

>>14856036
2. The real question now is, where is price headed to next? atleast in the absolute short term; is there any more room to move upwards in the next few HOURLY to 4HOURLY candles?
An answer can be somewhat found by looking at the 4HOURLY and HOURLY candles. It seems that in the short term, price is uncertain, so of course when price is UNCERTAIN it heads to the MEAN of the distribution. The MEAN here (atleast the most logical common sense mean) is the 4HOURLY MEAN and the 1HOURLY MEAN. Which both line up to around ~10900, the next logical point of resistance should be the MONTHLY and DAILY UPPER 2.2 levels, which would be the confirmation, if price closes above it, that prices are headed bullish on those respective time frames. The UPPER 2.2 benchmark for the DAILY and MONTHLY charts line up near enough with the 4HOURLY UPPER 1.25 CONTAINMENT ZONE, suggesting that price IF it can hold the 4HOURLY and 1HOURLY mean it seems it will try and test the UPPER 2.2 benchmarks for higher time frames to try and confirm or deny bullish sentiment.

It looks likely that we see LATERAL sideways movement in the short-medium term, only because the 4HOURLY distribution seems to be flattening out, expectation of sideways trading to come, even though higher time frames suggest the bullish sentiment is still there.
If and only if, the 4HOURLY mean can hold, then it seems likely a test to push the higher time frame distribution into bullish sentiment, it means you could potentially buy the the HOLD of the 4HOURLY MEAN and then trade the breakout towards ~12250.
Atleast that'd be what i'd do, all it would take it keeping an eye on the price as it travels in and around the 4HOURLY mean, then looking at the 1HOURLY timeframe to see if anything looks suspicious or if volume comes in on the smaller time frame to keep the 1HOURLY distirbution 'perky' and up.

>>14856059
Well Anon if you're willing to pay me for my time i'd stay! The idea here though is to boost the quality of the threads while trying inspiring others to do the same, ideally other Anons with any worthwhile information also start posting.
>I'm not sure how many threads i'll make, but the demand is here for sure for hungry minds, however i'm not one to spoonfeed forever. I'm a believer in the idea of the individual being independant and then individuals collectively coming together to to discuss ideas openly, passionately and honestly.

>>14856053
>>14856260
Why does the pattern matter to you? Will it bring you profit? Without any contest the pattern the candlesticks make are just noise. Try and understand the broader picture before you hone in on any small details. I suggest reading the previous thread, and this one, even to just skim through it.

>>14856065
>>14856105
I'm working on them now Anons. A warning or caveat for you before I start.
>This method of analysis requires atleast sufficient WEEKLY or DAILY (or anything above that is great too) data to make any real assumptions, any data on timeframes below this is subject to the context of this information CHANGING once the presence of a higher time frame (enough candle data) is introduced

>>14856271

love you anon, interesing how the price change in hours. i was baffled by the spike,

btw would suck if you leave with this brigade of shitposters and bear huggers, but its ok mate. thanks, gonna read everything you posted twice.

>>14856380
Do you have psychosis?

>>14856065
Unfortunately Anon, there doesn't seem to be a on TradingView, and the chart on HotBit althought powered by TradingView, doesn't load properly at all, and lags hard when I try to change the time frame.
>If you're able to find a chart in which I can change the time frame to Weekly/Daily/4H/1H and I can add Bollinger Bands. I will be happy to do it for you

What do your meme lines say about ONE and NKN fren?

>>14856531
ah the idex chart wont work?

>>14856551
Ah nvm looks like they haven't been on trading view long enough to really say

bump.

>traps and triangles
This thread is great

>>14856561
I can use the IDEX chart, it's a little slow but useable, it's only (of course) trading the /ETH pair (which will be subject to the wills of BTC) and it has relatively low volume compared to HotBit. It makes the data rather inaccurate to some extent but I can attempt it.

>>14856580
I don't mind taking a look, but I would be using the 25 PERIOD LENGTH DAILY chart, which is fine but by the end of this week the 50 PERIOD LENGTH DAILY chart will form and that will of course take priority. Just based on that information, I can suggest that you'll see price stay volatile in a small range, probably trading in and around the MEAN of the 25 LENGTH DAILY BB, or even between the UPPER AND LOWER 25 LENGTH DAILY 1.25's. The distribution is looking like it's flattening out slightly on the DAILY and the 4HOURLY, indicative of lateral trading to come.

>>14856672
needs more meat in her thighs

>>14856745

>>14856832
I don't mean to rain on your parade Anon, but please stop posting traps!

>>14856561
>>14856551
I'll take a look at VIDT/ETH, ONE/BTC and NKN/BTC next. It's time consuming so please bear with me.

>>14856875
godsend

>>14856439
Look at those eyes. Those are dead eyes

bump

>>14856561
I'm a little busy but slogging through it!
VIDT/ETH ON 18JUL2019 @1745UTC

1. The cross referencing is kind of hard here because i'm looking at a few different chart separately. Price had reverted to the mean after failing to sustain the initial run up around the start of JULY, it failed the UPPER 2.2 and didn't afterwards close convincingly above it or even breach it, afterwards the UPPER 1.25 CONTAINMENT ZONE, and of course because price is UNCERTAIN it reverted to the DAILY MEAN to attempt to hold ground there.
We can then go down to the 4HOURLY chart to see exactly why price failed to break the DAILY UPPER 2.2 and then why it held the DAILY MEAN.
Looking at the 4HOURLY chart we can see that the attempt to break the UPPER 2.2 DAILY on the 4HOURLY chart was never bound to succeed, the price was trading in no mans land in that time and found temporary SUPPORT at the 4HOURLY UPPER 1.25, failing that it reverted to the 4HOURLY MEAN to then hold that MEAN and then also attempt to hold the DAILY MEAN. We can see that even though the 4HOURLY MEAN was broken it closed convincingly ABOVE the DAILY MEAN only wicking into it, price could have also found support at the 4HOURLY LOWER 1.25 but it didn't attempt to breach or try that level since the DAILY MEAN was still in play.
We can look at the 1HOURLY chart to confirm that there was no bearish senitment prevalent in the 1HOURLY chart, which there wasn't as price closed hugging tightly the LOWER 1.25 1HOURLY DISTRIBUTION.
Price seems to have very recently failed the UPPER 2.2 1HOURLY, which suggests to me (including the data of the distribution flattening out) that price will trade laterally for the next couple of HOURLY candles.

2. So where do we stand currently? Well the distribution on the 4HOURLY seems to be flattening, so it suggests a period of temporary consolidation, it also appears flat recently on the 1HOURLY distribution.
It seems like the price, after failing

>>14857961
2. It seemslike the price, after failing the UPPER 1.25 CONTAINMENT AREA, will obviously look to head towards the MEAN 1HOURLY for more guidance, from then on it seems likely to laterally trade, opportunity could be had by trading the MEAN REVERSIONS, selling from the UPPER 1.25 down to the MEAN, buying from the MEAN back up to the UPPER 1.25, selling the MEAN back down to the LOWER 1.25, and then buying from the LOWER 1.25 to the MEAN.

This would all be subject to how the next 1HOURLY cnadles play out, it seems like the 4HOURLY mean is a sticking point right now, it's providing good resistance, while the DAILY MEAN is providing good support, price and flattening indicates it will trade between these two prices (8300 - 10500) which coincidentally is the same as the 1HOURLY UPPER AND LOWER 1.25 CONTAINMENT AREAS.
So take your mean reversion positions, and keep a keen eye on how the price and distributions of the 4HOURLY and lower time frames move.
>Unfortunately this chart isn't available on TradingView, which would allow for quicker decision making.

>>14856551
>ONE/BTC on 18JUL2019 @ 1815UTC
>Caveat again by saying that by the end of this week, the emergence of the DAILY 50 LENGTH BB will take priority over the analysis provided here, it would be best to take stock of the situation now and see how price reacts once the 50 LENGTH DAILY is in play, see how the lower distributions are reacting, are they closing higher into 'bullish sentiment' areas, or are they moving lower into 'bearish sentiment' areas like the UPPER and LOWER 2.2's respectively.

1. We can see that price reverted to the DAILY 25 LENGTH MEAN, we can see that price reacted by moving away from the MEAN, which is most obvious on the 1HOURLY chart, where price had held above the BLUE HORIZONTAL LINE, which is the next few days LOWER 1.25 DAILY CONTAINMENT AREA. After it held convincingly above that line, it then held the MEAN convincingly which was also the same as the LOWER 1.25 4HOURLY CONTAINMENT AREA. This obviously suggests that the price would try and attempt the DAILY MEAN once again, as price is uncertain. Price did try and hold convincingly above the UPPER 1.25, but alas it had many breaches and very volatile action, as demonstrated by the 15MINUTE TIME FRAME where price was narrowing ONLY between the 15MINUTE CONTAINMENT AREAS.
Price obviously wasn't ready to break the 4HOURLY AND DAILY MEANS, because the 1HOURLY price failed recently to break the UPPER 2.2, it definitely wicked TO IT, but didn't really attempt it again.
This is made clear by the 1HOURLY and 15MINUTE time frames, the failures to close convincingly and hold the 15M AND 1H UPPER 1.25 benchmark obviously meant that price was what? UNCERTAIN.
The next logical area for UNCERTAIN MEAN REVERSION was the 1HOURLY MEAN the same as the 4HOURLY LOWER 1.25 the same as the DAILY LOWER 1.25, the same as the 15M LOWER 1.25, pretty coincidental that they somehow all line up?

>>14858329

2. Well where is price headed to now? Well, once the 50 LENGTH DAILY BB comes into play, that will play the biggest role in shaping the price for the foreseeable future.
It seems like, in the short term anyway, that as long as participants feel comfortable holding price ABOVE that BLUE HORIZONTAL LINE. then we'll trade LATERALLY for until the formation of the above. For bullish participants it would be in their best interest to HOLD price above the 1HOURLY MEAN first of all, and then REALLY RALLY to attempt to hold the LOWER 1.25 1HOURLY if that were to fail.
We can also then use the 15MINUTE TIME FRAME to see exactly where the 1HOURLY distribution is at currently, as in, where and how volatile is the range right now, is it in the upper half (MEAN - UPPER 1.25 1HOURLY, which would be good for a bullish scenario) or is it breaking the 15MINUTE LOWER 2.2 and headed downward to the 1HOURLY 1.25 LOWER CONTAINMENT AREA.

>It's literally a matter of keeping an eye on any mean reversion points, and trading accordingly. If you have conviction that the low BLUE LINE will hold, you can wait to either buy RIGHT NOW and analyse and keep an eye on lower distributions to look for a 1HOURLY REVERSION back to the 1HOURLY UPPER 1.25, or you could wait and see if price breaks down all the way to the BLUE LINE and buy around there and wait to see confirmation on lower time frames for it to REVERT back to the 1HOURLY MEAN.

>>14855565
I read through the thread yesterday and starting reading up on TA, then read through your thread again and it made more sense. I appreciate the guidance. You should make a tripcode and have weekly threads anon, a lot of people would appreciate it

Again, I caveat all analysis by saying that:
>NEWS, be it good or bad have THE biggest impact on the price, no matter what the analysis says. If tomorrow AMD announced the most efficient xyz ever made, what do you think would happen to the price?
>Especially for any ALTS, BTC is a great indicator to use as they are pegged against each other, look in the previous thread for an example of ICX reacting to BTC. This doesn't explain EVERY scenario where BTC going up/down explains all the movement, but it's something you need to acknowledge surely, BECAUSE it has an impact.
>This approach utilises mostly the REAL WORLD DATA, that is the VOLATILITY of the price range, please try and grasp that concept fully before you trade based off of any of this information. The only valuable 'tools' to use are tools that measure data that ALL participants can see clearly, and over the largest time frames. It's no use having a niche indicator that only YOU can see the buy sell points, because the market isn't made up of ONLY AUTISTS like yourself, but regular people, big money investors, corporations, dumb money, smart money and so on.

The summary Mark Whistler gives at the end of Macro to Micro is really worth reading, i'll post it here for everyones benefit:

>>14858579
>On a longer term basis, we’re taught outliers are near the exterior of a distribution; however, as historically shown, the real outliers within markets are events that push prices back towards the mean

>When prices are trading away from the mean. Above or below the 1.25 standard deviation Containment Zones and often at, or beyond the 2nd and 3rd standard deviations, these occurrences don’t directly tell us a reversal is incoming. Rather, data near the exterior of the distribution indicates expectations are aligned for greater, or less, value, growth, earnings.

>If we assume markets and distributions are static, we will constantly fall victim to real outliers where prices move out to 7th and beyond standard deviations, as prices are organic and dynamic, just like time.

>We must understand that the mean and distributions are mobile and organic, ultimately following price wherever it goes. It’s critical to understand that within day to day trading there exists only really four types of volatility: Market, Probability, Mean-period, Price volatility.

>We must understand that because of the squaring of the deviations in standard deviations, the standard deviations are also organic and dynamic; expanding and contracting with price volatility, regardless of the larger trend.

>>14858594
>Standard deviations are more than just points of probability measuring the wingspan of a distribution; rather, standard deviations are measurements of volatility as well, thus serving multiple key functions.

>>Alerting us to points where data could stall, slow, or reverse; often also directly indicates traders are seeking higher highs or lower lowes, as noted in the fact that prices must ultimately lean on one side of the distribution, or another, in order for prices to trend. Prices can’t trend if they are sitting comfortably at the mean.

>>Alerting us to volatility decreasing after a sustained period of trending, denoting that more trending is likely to come, as contrarians are now out of the picture.

>>Alerting us to volatility decreasing after an initial spike in uncertainty, or expectations aligning, ultimately indicating lateral trading action/consolidation, or a pullback to come.

>>Alerting us to price spikes on the horizon after consolidation has taken place, the distribution has shed weight (compressed) and thus, is primed for a volatility breakout up or down.

>>Alerting us to the fact that a trend has come to an end, through a sudden collapse of short term volatility underneath long term volatility.

>>14858616
>Prices moving above, or below a Containment Zone keys us into the fact that expectations may be aligning, and trending could be on the way. For prices to truly continue trading outside of the Containment Zone, volatility must initially spike, helping open up the standard deviations, so price can move within the distribution and ultimately move the distribution as well. By watching the 1.2 standard deviations, we’re able to trash whether expectations are beginning to align, or are aligned, as prices above or below the Containment Zone allude to trending incoming. However, when prices fall back underneath or above the Containment Zone, we must be able to recognise that expectations are shifting to uncertainty.

>All understanding of distributions, the mean, standard deviations and volatility in the markets is lost if we don’t approach our analysis from a macro down perspective. Macro down means starting with the monthly chart then moving down later by layer to the weekly, daily, 4 hour, 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute, and even the 5 minute and 1 minute charts if needs be.

>We want to use simple parameters like the 200 and 50 period distributions when doing macro down analysis. We’re measuring volatility and standard deviations as they apply to relevant distributions. Trying to make these simple concepts more complex may work for some, but for most keeping it simple is the best bet. We’re talking about statistics and volatility, empirically justifiable occurrences within markets.

>When effecting macro down analysis, we don’t want to skip any of the time frames, as each specifically relays information that isn’t likely to be seen on other timeframes.

>>14858629
> If prices are trading above the Containment Zone on our macro charts, we must resist the temptation to take a position against the trend, no matter how good the short term charts look. Patience pays. If a reversal is truly at hand, a failure of the Containment Zone where prices headed back to the mean, will surface shortly.

> When prices begin to break outside of the Containment Zone, indicating expectations are aligning, we must fight the urge to chase price. Almost always, we’ll have a chance to enter on a pullback to the Containment Zone, thus minimising risk, while identifying clear stop exits.

> We must remember to watch the slope of volatility itself, as if the slope of the standard deviations and mean are not trending, prices trading the Containment Zones could really just be volatility in the range.

>In terms of the Reality Adjustment, if we can’t perceive, comprehend and separate short term expectations from longer term counterparts, we’ll likely lose over the long haul.

>The longer the lateral range persists, the higher the probability volatility will collapse.

>Prices won’t trade laterally forever, and thus, volatility can’t collapse into the mean endlessly.

>In an ascending trend, if upper volatility has not confirmed bullishness, overall volatility will most likely be very high at key pivots.

>In a descending trend, if lower volatility has not confirmed bearishness, overall volatility will most likely be very high at key pivots.

>We never have to chase price, so even if we miss or sit out of the first or second test of a Containment Zone, if we’re patient, we’ll almost always have an opportunity to take a position when price pulls back to the Containment Zone, shortly after.

>>14858649
>If price pulls back to a Containment Zone shortly after breaking out of it, and if we have solid reasoning to believe expectations are still aligned, relevant to the time frame, we can then consider the serious possibility of buying the pullback into the Containment Zone with a stop, just slightly on the opposite side.

>Missed money is always better than lost money, half the battle is knowing when not to trade and then having the discipline not to trade.

>Probability/paradigm pivot points, which traders must be able to recognise without bias, in order to effectively move with and profit from expectations aligning/uncertainty kicking up in both the longer and shorter time frames.

> The paradigm where short term expectations meet long term expectations, where traders are able to read longer term paradigms of fear or casual prospects over the short term expectant opportunity within markets.

>The action of studying both short and long term expectations and then adjusting the outlook or mindset you have to fit the proper short term reality in any given situation, within the context of longer term expectations aligned, or uncertainty prevailing.

>For macro markets to sustain ground above the longer term Containment Zone, the mass or majority of the participants must have some easily understandable information available such as: tax cuts, lower interest rates, unemployment easing, tech advances, abolition of unfair politics, changes in legislation to allow for greater personal wealth, political shifts that enable any of the above and huge jumps in corporate earnings that the masses can participate through dividends or capital appreciation.

>>14858594
>>14858616
>>14858629
>>14858649
>>14858671

I believe these are word for word, although they are based on the notes I took and might be phrased differently. There will of course be some ideas/concepts that you don't understand, use this as an opportunity to expand your knowledge and do some research for yourself.

>>14858329
brainlet here. does that mean it's looking pretty stable?

Absolutely based OP. Thanks for taking the time to do all of this charting and dump all of this information.

Bump

>>14858938
It means that for now until the formation of the DAILY 50 LENGTH PERIOD BB shows up, you can EXPECT to see lateral action between a narrow range. That doesn't necessarily mean 'stable'.
Stability is when EXPECTATIONS for price to move one way or another are aligned amongst all participants. What you're seeing here is the period of MOST UNCERTAINTY because the range of prices has narrowed and compressed, what you need to remember is that price won't stay compressed for long, ONE is essentially looking for a REASON to move in x or y or z direction, right now it's just compressing and storing energy until the next move.
>I urge you to actually read the whole thread to gain a broader context of the information you're looking at on the ONE/BTC chart.

I'm making dinner and then will post the NKN chart an Anon had asked for.
>feel free to request charts, ask questions, post resources and what not

>>14855565
Brainlet here, could you do some ta on RSR? I'm trying to scalp so I can accumulate more but these singles are fucked

>>14859436
I'd appreciate if you take the time to scan the thread before you post anything. I try not to repeat myself too much, and I hate spoonfeeding to some extent.

The analysis I posted yesterday is here:
>>14843595

>I'm not here to give you advice on how to scalp, you can use my reasoning and see if it's sound, if it is then the information provided (within the larger context of all the information i've suggested, books and all that's written here) should be enough to be able to scalp trade and/or sit out of the trade until more information is available.

>>14855565
Thanks for the TSLA and LINK ta last thread OP. Can you please do WTI crude CFDs?

>>14859269
Great threads fren.
A question, what should we pay attention to when looking at the one on 50 and at the one on 200? What does one tells us that the other don't, etc?

>>14859741
I should add that my timeframe is three months (options expire 10/18)

>>14859634
>>14859756
Let me rephrase my question. Why not just stick to the 200 one? (Of course unless looking at long time frames where the 200 is not there yet)

>>14859756
You could just stick to the 200 period length, as i've been doing so far for the lower time frames in this thread and the previous. But it's handy to keep the 50 length around to see how price is moving on the quicker time frame.
Realistically, i've tried using lengths that MOST of the participants will look to when they open up their chart, I don't know why but 14/25/50/100/200/500/1000 lengths seem to be the 'obvious' choices for newbies and for the experienced. Sure there might be some lengths that convey data better, like using the 21/55/250/350, and if you find success using these lengths go ahead, but I use them to confirm the smaller details.

>>14860001
>>14860715
I really think you'd benefit from understand how a bollinger band works first of all, once you grasp the idea of 'volatility' and how bollinger bands measure it in a variety of ways. You'll be able to comfortably use any length.
BUT the data varies from time frame to time frame, for example a 200 length on the 1hour timeframe, should be 100% the same as the 50 length on the 4 hour right? Sure they MIGHT be exactly the same, but the 1H time frame may have experienced something that's invisible on the 4H time frame.

Look at this example here.
>Ioaded the 1h chart with 200 length BB
>loaded the 4h chart with 50 length BB

If you can read the indicator values (the labels on the right hand side) you'll notice that price varies EVER so slightly. Take a look for yourself by opening up a 50 length 4h BB and a 200 length 1h BB if you want.

>>14855565
Here is your non meme technical analysis.

>Put money in bitcoin
>Hold
>Watch price rise
>Wait until you start to see articles in normie media about how well bitcoin is doing doing
>Sell
>Bitcoin will crash
>Go back to point one

>>14859741
>USOIL on 18JUL2019 @ 2100UTC

I hesitate to give long term predictions because i'm not really experienced in traditional assets (although i'm learning), and traditionally these aseets are subject to all the world influences, that means:
>politics
>economy
>unrest/war
>the broader market sentiment
>tech or energy advances/declines
>climate change sentiment
>and so on

I've marked the date you've given of 18th Oct 2019 with a vertical white line. Not that it means much but gives you a sense of scale of how many 'candles you have left remaining'.

1. I just wanted to make note of how price reacted away from the 1MONTH LOWER 1.25, so I went down the time frames to see how price was reacting. It became apparent that the reason for the price to be keep above the mean on the MONTHLY time frame was clear on the DAILY and 4HOURLY time frames. If you note (i've drawn a blue line to illustrate) that price CONSISTENTLY closed above the LOWER 2.2 benchmarks on these time frames, the price FAILED to convincingly close below the LOWER 2.2 benchmarks, on the WEEKLY chart, price was literally hugging as tight as it could to the LOWER 2.2, even though it was still bearish, you could almost be sure that EVEN FURTHER bearish sentiment wasn't there. I don't know anything about USOIL apart from the basic knowledge I have and when I opened the chart, but I could have successfully made a profitable trade either long/short using common sense, I probably would have waited for price to revert to the MONTHLY MEAN, see if it held levels, and then bought the MEAN REVERSION back from 1-2 as noted on the chart, then assess once price got closer to the areas I'd had my eye on, this is ofc in HINDSIGHT, but the INFORMATION was all there, if you're uncertain go back and go from HIGHEST to LOWEST time frame and find out the 'inbetween' data

>>14861208
2. Here I was wondering why price had stalled at the MONTHLY MEAN, (again this is where THE MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES), after such a strong run up back to the MEAN, it was a matter of 'hmm can it hold and break further ground higher?'
It became apparent on ALL time frames, barring the MONTHLY that well, price had FAILED TO CONVINCINGLY CLOSE ABOVE THE UPPER 2.2 BENCHMARK, which again is indication of bullish sentiment. This should have been the first clear red flag that maybe participants didn't want to push for higher ground, I mean they've probably been exhausted from pushing the price back UP to the mean, probably best to wait for a small dip before pushing beyond the mean right? The only timeframe that saw convincing closes ABOVE the UPPER 2.2 was on the 4HOURLY, and that was only for a few candles, not really indicative of the broader market sentiment is it? It's barely recognisable on any other time frames that price had closed above that benchmark.

>>14861299
3. Now to determine what happens next. Somethings i'd like to preface:
>The slope of all timeframes barring the 4HOURLY is that price distribution seems really flat recently, it started really flattening out when the WEEKLY chart began to flatten around last September. We know that if there's flat distribution you can expect high volatility and a period of consolidation, literally just waiting for further guidance for price to move in a direction. This makes sense seeing as the MONTHLY chart shows that price DID indeed revert to the mean, we know it didn't hold at that time on the MONTHLY, so we look to the WEEKLY chart to see if the MEAN is being held there, we see it is being held there.
The DAILY is compressing or beginning to compress, and compression means an eventual release of energy in x or y direction.
The 4HOURLY being ABOVE that blue line i've drawn in certainly suggests that price is still short term bullish, as that line indicates the WEEKLY MEAN which held in the most recent test of it.

It seems like if the WEEKLY MEAN can hold across all the lower time frames that we can expect another MONTHLY MEAN REVERSION where price will revert to the mean to 'hash things out' as it's the 'safest place' to make a decision. Decisions have to be made RATIONALLY at SAFE locations, and the most safe and rational location where you can expect volume/liquidity AND for people to be watching is the MEAN.
>If the blue line holds you can expect price to try and work its way through the lower quicker time frames and keep testing the means/upper 1.25-2.2 until either price is brought back up to the MONTHLY MEAN or a decision is made by participants to sell, either way keep a keen eye on key levels, mainly ~52, ~57, ~63.
>As with ANY dynamic distribution, this is of course subject to change and external influences.

I'll still be checking this thread if anyone else has posted, for now i'm taking a small break. Hopefully the thread is around later/tomorrow, but I doubt it will be bumped enough.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us. Could you do XMR/BTC?

>>14856036
>>14856076
none of that shows why price moved as violently as it did.
you are using 4hr and daily charts to indicate a move that took 10 mins

Do a new one for rsr

>>14855565
>Bollinger Bands
stopped reading, gonna take a look at the charts tho.

>>14862124
Price reverts to the closest 'MEAN' during times of uncertainty, there is seemingly rock solid support on the DAILY time frame of the LOWER 1.25 benchmark, as indicated by the red candle trying to penetrate it which DIDN'T at all, it barely even touched it. The previous 4-5 candles on the 4HOURLY chart were so narrow and tight, which is indicative of INDECISION, do you know what an indecision doji candle looks like? Where does price move to when there is 'UNCERTAINTY' or 'INDECISION' in the air?
To the MEAN.
The closest mean being the 4HOURLY MEAN.
Let's look further than the 4HOURLY however, just to show you could have spotted the 'move that took 10 minutes'
The hourly firstly shows, NO CLEAR CONVINCING CLOSE below the lower 2.2, so no CONVINCING sentiment for bearish behaviour, the second underlined area is just the CONFIRMATION volume coming in, as attested by the VOLUME ACTUALLY COMING IN, that indeed, the bearish sentiment ISN'T THERE, and indeed, PRICES ARE HEADED TO THE 4 HOURLY MEAN.

>How else can you contextualise the smaller time frames without first considering the STRONGEST SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE AREAS, which would be THE HIGHEST AND SLOWEST TIME FRAMES.

Honestly I don't think you've actually understood the concept, it seems like you're separating the time frames, having no 'overlap'. When in reality the smaller move that took '10 mins' was BASED on the higher time frame information.

I suggest you actually read the information in the past two threads, an open mind does wonders. Why not open up TradingView and try the indicator out as i've described it to judge for yourself.

so many words...

>>14862271
I might. I'd prefer if you took a crack at it yourself, it's not exactly like this is something 'easy' for me to do or 'quick'.

>>14862297
Do you actually know what bollinger bands measure? Or are you a 'brainlet', maybe read Macro to Micro with some real life examples to try and get a clearer understanding of how BB should actually be used 'effectively'

>>14862359
You use them to buy and sell?

>>14862308
>Where does price move to when there is 'UNCERTAINTY' or 'INDECISION' in the air
sideways

>>14862359
And ofc ik what it measures, volatility, wich you already see on the naked chart....

>>14862321
>>14862420
>>14862458
I'm not here to spoonfeed autistic babies, there is an element of self research involved that I can't help you with. Take some initiative if you actually give a shit to learn something outside of your purview.
My best recommendations have already been clearly laid out in this thread and the previous. If you want someone to hold your hand through the process, well what do you think i've been trying to do so far with this wall of text? Literally just writing my thought process down

Just an FYI of what I THINK will happen with BTC in the next few hours or so.
>Back down to 10.2k
>Sideways to hold above 10.2k
>Back down to 10k
>Sideways to keep above 10K
>Back up to 10.9k

The 5m and 15m timeframes look bearish to me.

>>14862621
of those,
>Sideways to keep above 10K
but really the idea that price reverts to the mean on indecision in a full trend is retarded. a daily doji on its own doesnt mean shit even above resistance, and your 4 hour chart showed the candle was below your base line before the reversal.

>>14862621
Im up 3000% this year, i dont need to learn anything.

Im just telling you, that indicators based on price are useless since you already see the price... And you got buthurt like a kid.. meaby you should talk less and trade more.

You eaten the bait.

bump 4 TAFAG bread

>>14862658
It was well below, but the next daily candle closed right above it, even though it wicked under it on the daily chart and had a solid candle close on the 4 hourly chart, but should one candle close be indicate that short term bearish senitment is there? Perhaps it should be something more substantial than 1 candle close, perhaps 2 or 3? Again we're looking for the most obvious points which are understood by the spectrum of participants.
There are trends, within trends, within trends within trends. Everything is always stopping, checking its context and then making further moves.
The 4 hour chart was also backed up by the lower time frame 1 hour chart and 15 minute chart. Where prices were really hugging the lower 2.2, it would beg the question as to why it was hugging the lower 2.2 right?

>>14862678
I'm not here to convince you. Either you find value in this approach or you don't, i'm not expecting to convert you into thinking BB's are the best thing since sliced bread.
I'd appreciate if you could post other contrasting methods, enlighten others and myself to how we can use other indicators that AREN'T based on price.
Instead all you did was bait and LARP.
Have you read Macro to Micro? It's a great book that will change your outlook on Bollinger Bands, it did for me anyway; personally i'm always looking for information that provides a contrasting point to one that I already hold.

>I'm more than happy for ANYONE here to post their OWN method or analysis, it would be very beneficial to find out the different ways to skin a cat.

>>14862869
>but the next daily candle closed right above it,
do you mean opened? the daily is not closed yet

>>14862920
Yes sorry, I meant yesterdays candle opened* right above it, even though it wicked beyond (i'm talking about yesterdays candle by the way not todays candle which of course hasn't closed yet)

>>14861208
>>14861299
>>14861499
Thanks OP I appreciate it, I'll read fully once I get home.

>>14863040
>>14862920

>>14862920
>>14863040

I zoomed in to show the slight gap between the benchmark red line and the close/open of the candle yesterday and the day before.
Also showing the 1h and 15m charts, just so you can see it respected the Daily red benchmark (first arrow), then the respecting of the 1h lower 2.2, then the respecting of the 15m lower 1.25 benchmark.

>it wont let me post, because my post is 'spam'

>>14862869
I really only use horizontal lines and orderflow so... Not much to explain.

Will take a look at the book.

>>14862012
I'm burnt out right now Anon, i'll attempt it once I feel fresh and if I don't get distracted and/or fall asleep.
>Didn't realise how time consuming all of the writing and observing would be

lol