/biz/ - Business & Finance

FIRST FOR HOURLY REMINDER THAT MKC IS GOING TO SMASH EARNINGS TOMORROW AND THAT OTHER SPICEKEK ACCUMULATING BGS IS A KEK IN DENIAL

JUST BUY BACK IN BRO AND REPENT

TQQQ if u want to get rich melvins.

>>12534374

JUST FUCK MY SHIT UP

>>12534400
What did you do retard

>>12534409
options

>>12534393
HATER
BGS TO OUTPERFORM

>>12534400
You're all caught up!

>some days you get the algo
>some days the algo gets you

First you take a drink, then the drink takes a drink, then the drink takes you.

>>12534246
x_x explain what? thats basically it
can keep up this pace over 10 years?

dunno... probably not 10 years straight. Every real daytrader me know takes ALOT of vacations
the hardest part of daytrading keeping self high functioning

So this austrianfag I talk to is adamant that there's going to be this massive dump in the next year or so, worse than 2007-2008.

Is he right, and if so, how can I short the market long term?

>>12534444
you trying to fool them? I know everything about you user.

>>12534434
kekies

>>12534475
He's wrong. We already hit the bottom.

>>12534475
no you cant predict that long market. things change weekly even daily basis

>>12534394
Hey kid.... BST is better...

so i randomly started trading options on robinhood and every fucking time i buy into one it plunges 30% within the next couple of hours before going to zero in the next day or two

what am I doing wrong

>>12534478
desu am kinda trying fool self
can see the L side of p/l slowly creep up on me

the 100% beating spy strat used for have no working well anymore, me adapting doing new strategies, looking for openings to keep a good edge but it very hard

>>12534517
Don't buy the ones that expire so soon. You want to have the chance to sell when it's rising very quickly.

>>12534517
>what am I doing wrong
buying options

>>12534530
i think this could be the problem, thank you

>>12534517
Buying shit too close to expiration date
try to look into spreads, your loses won't be as hilariously bad when you're wrong

>>12534527
sucking dick is much less effort and requires the same level of intellect as day trading.

>>12534527
I discovered the 100% strategy 2 months ago. Everything you have ever thought, is Defunct now. You were nothing without my bias, and now you have the audacity to Lie in front of my face
Youre going to suffer as I suffered year of the dog

Buffet make it by buying the dip; when the company he invested in was in the shit circling the drain. He then gave the company a shit pot full of money with strings attached. Company was in to deep to turn it down. So over the long term company turned around and buffet made out like a bandit thanks to stock and those strings I mentioned. That's the real key; buying the dip when the stock is in the shit when you know the company can turn itself around. The other way is when a company is just starting out and you know the product will take off or the chance company will be bought is high. When the market shit itself in 2008 and after the dot-com fad that was a perfect time to get in. If you got in then, you'd be a rich fuck now.

>>12534547
yeah but me can make 10 penises in 5 mins daytrading
also dont have to deal with creeps

>>12534428
>You're all caught up!

Thanks Robinfeels!

>>12534574
Fair trade I suppose. But I still say you should go for a longer term strategy unless you're planning on dying at the end of the year. Most of the price movements on that level are pretty much a random walk.

>>12534517
>so i randomly started trading options

Now. See. This statement here is the root of the problemo.

Whats the opinion on weed stocks? Is this the beginning or the end of the bubble. I see CRON and TLRY have taken off in the last year.

>>12534569
ha, you will learn for regretting trifling with me
as all me adversaries have

me will make your golden bull run me strength this year, as am nearly 99% sure 232 was the forever bottom

>>12534475
Yes, although not for the reasons they probably think. It'll probably start off not quite as bad but it will last much longer due to political gridlock and impotent monetary policy.

>>12534501
It's much easier to predict the market on longer time scales relative to shorter ones. It's pretty well established that the business cycle occurs on the order of about a decade.

>>12534527
it's not a competition, rkg
everyone here can make profits as long as everyone makes the right calls

>He doesn't work for Renaissance Technologies

NEVER GONNA MAKE IT ANON.

>>12534573
Look at amazon; if you bought it way back when it was only $5 per share you'd be a rich fucker right now no question, esp if you sold at the top when it was at 2k a share. But it took 20+ yrs to get to that. So say you were 20 at amazon ipo launch, you'd be 45 now with all that money just sitting there. You could tell your boss to suck it and walk out.

>>12534573

Yepper. It takes conviction to be a successful Buffett hodler too. I never had the ability to have that much faith in a company. My whole strategy is predicated on the idea that any company no matter how large can go bust tomorrow and not ever recover.

>>12534615
>as am nearly 99% sure 232 was the forever bottom
lol

>>12534475
It's going to dump, but the central banks are going to be much looser with the quantative easing this time. Buy the dip and ride into the sunset.

>>12534641
meant as a reply to >>12534615

also

>actually being perma-anything

I'm a permabull until GALT sells, then I'm neutral long term

>>12534659
They'll have no choice but to be looser and still probably won't be very effective. Easy monetary policy and debt are quickly loosing their effectiveness as stimulus. Eventually the harsh logic of capitalist instability will reimpose itself like never before.

>>12534646

Right, but then after 20 years how do you decide that now, after all that time, is the moment for selling? Very tricky business. Especially so if you're of the opinion, as many Buffett memers are, that TA is a load of bunk. This is for growth strategy mind you. I am well aware of the 'never sell collect dividends forever' school of long hodl.

>>12534677
It's like insulin resistance.

Invest in alternate units of account.

>>12534601
>pretty much a random walk.
some days kek yes
but not today
today were very easy for spotting where the liquidity, and where the distribution was happening hence very easy for trading

me have NEVER A ONCE made long call right, but can go for days making perfect short (10 sec, 2 min) call

>>12534641
yes and no
in general yes, everyone can get their beaks wet

but in today daytrading, was so perfectly absorbing liquidity at right time / place, am sure was screwing /someone/ over

>>12534643
medallion returns are mediocre

>>12534658
Its a V bottom Scumbag. 3100 end of year

>>12534504
Yeah sure thatll be a cold day in hell

>>12534691
I don't know if it'll cause a change in the monetary system, but commodities do have real value anyway so they're not a bad buy. Also, buying bonds at the end of a cycle will also work well, especially a mix of inflation protected and regular ones.

>>12534705
Shoestring TA won't save you from a recession.

>Jardine Matheson - the $45 billion market cap multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses
focused on the Asia-Pacific region - is now down 9% after plunging as much as 83%, the most in data going back to 1990.

>Three traders said the price action suggested a fat finger...but the step down function of the bid-offer suggests this was algos run wild...

>SGX didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment

>Jardine Matheson Holdings activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

>Notably, it was just last week that a series of Chinese property developer stocks crashed 80-90% instantly. Are the Asian stock exchanges running of liquidity fumes?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-23/45-billion-asian-conglomerate-loses-83-market-cap-another-exchange-glitch

So, um, WTF is going on in China?

>>12534765

>>12534765
>it's another "China propped their own economy up and it's finally showing" episode

>>12534765
>So, um, WTF is going on in China?

just natural growth pains you cant have steadily 10% rising gdp 20 years

>*ahem*
If China's economy goes boom, then I'm only commending Trump's MAGA efforts.

What are futures doing?

>>12534788
politically, fuck china and mexico
as someone with money in the market, i want the shitshow to end

>>12534788
>*ahem*
Circuit breakers this week

>>12534788
It'll bring the US down with it, the result would be a global recession.

>>12534822
good.

>>12534804
Me to; I want the shutdown to end. There are IPO's that are waiting to be launched. The FDA has drugs to rubber stamp. Profits are being lost each day this shutdown drags on. There are poor FED workers who need to be paid.

>>12534802
Don’t look, it’s easier that way

>>12534765

>>12534834
it would set a bad precedent to just give into Trump's demands, unfortunately. Whether you agree with the wall or not, for future stability it's important to make sure this is an ineffective tactic on his part

>>12534802
>orange juice is red

>>12534834
I wouldn't be surprised if this permanently damages the capabilities of the federal bureaucracy. the primary way it attracts talent that would otherwise go to private industry is through it's status as the most secure employer in the country. With that gone, a lot of people might not even try.

>>12534822
good fuck china

>>12534760
you stupid mother fucker
They patched recessions after 2008. have fun with your Bond ETFS at mid 20 years old good lord

>>12534847
WHAT IS WHEAT DOING

>>12534852
Fugggg

You know that 1. Trump will never back down and 2. Dems are unlikely to back down.

This could easily go on for another 3 months.

i've lost so much cash, but i keep going.

>>12534852
Nah. Notice all these retards are just sitting around through the shutdown. They will wait it out years if they could. Because they can't fucking do any better in the private sector. In fact they would be doing so much worse financially they would all probably just collect unemployment. The government is full of do nothing women and minority charity cases.

>>12534852
I favor anything that damages the federal govrernments reputation. They deserve it.

>>12534885
god damn. my subtle hate for the world wishes for this chaos. Only thing better would be infinite wealth

I just want Trump to do something REEEEEE.

>>12534885
with FDA progress shutting down in late Feb/early March, I imagine big pharma will try to intervene. They may not have a big impact on Trump, but they'll have an effect on either the dems or the repubs or Trump's inner circle.

>>12534765
One theory I have heard is that Chinese billionaires are pumping certain stocks just for the sake of obfuscating their money, then ‘withdrawing’ that money on the Hong Kong exchange by mass selling. They then send this money out of Hong Kong to the US where they buy the market up further. The reason Hong Kong acts as a middle man is because of some communist laws in Ch*na forbidding certain transfers of cash in certain ways. This way it’s discrete; same reason why housing prices have ballooned in places like Vancouver too. Keep this in mind since last week the commies pumped their markets by the tune of 1 trillion gook bucks (and US markets surged). Obviously the smart ones know where this is going to end up so they flee with the capital elsewhere.

>>12534902
this. Anyone who deals with government employees often knows that they are all minorities and women who hate their job and hate working at all.

>>12534871
>They patched recessions after 2008.
You know I used to work in financial regulation, right? There's good reasons no one in that business believes we're reached the end of economic instability. They can see the risks with their own two eyes.

>>12534902
That simply isn't true, I know a lot of these people personally. They're intelligent and hard working and those at high levels have consulting jobs waiting for them on the way out.

>>12534916
Lol they can't do shit. Nobody will give the other side the opportunity to label them as big pharmacy goons in such a high profile situation no matter how much lobying is at stake.

>>12534765
Zerohedge is weird. They post really interesting data and break down market news in a way that's easy to read, but the quality of writing is terrible. Tons of grammar and spelling mistakes, duplicate sentences, and a Peter Schiff-esque doomsday spin on almost every topic. Wheat and chaff, I suppose.

>>12534956
it's the boomer kgb counterintel zone.

>>12534956
I’ve been reading zerohedge since it’s inception, you just got to view it as quasi entertainment

>>12534937
thats funny I didnt know Financial Regulators can claim to be an expert on the sp500 because you dont seem to know anything about it. Do you even know about the Recessions where the sp500 went up? Your opinion on the economy is so fucking useless

>>12534922
And where did you hear that?
Everyone and their mother knows that if they read NYT, WT, Times, CNN, BBC, The Economist and all that dribble.
The 'new' laws-in-place stop that in its threads.
Europe and North America also have started auditing these Chink 'billionaire' assets, causing them to pack up and move house.

>>12534765
China?
Just look at the following dates
2007
2016
2018
Their stock market had already died a long time ago.

>>12534984
The economy has qualitatively changed many times, and our current paradigm while very different from the social democratic period, has not changed that much since the 90s. Dodd Frank helped reinforce large banks from instability, allowing them to whether larger crashes without a bailout, but not much else. In fact, it's emphasis on big banks largely pushed many risky activities into shadier, less regulated portions of the economy.

A recession today would not cause the S & P 500 to go up, and it doesn't take a genius to realize that. The whole bear market we just went through was founded upon recession fears.

Stop shilling LCI
There is nothing to gain from trying to pump and dump it

>mfw the state collapses

>>12535028
We're in a fucking Interest rate mechanic environment now. Once the real yield curve inverts the market moons because of expectations for the fed to adjust policy

This is NOT the time to sell, this is the time to buy and leave bonds behind. Thats my SENSHADO

>>12535028
But what if we're in a new paradigm? Has that concept been explored?

>>12535061
>Once the real yield curve inverts the market moons because of expectations for the fed to adjust policy
>this is what bulls actually believe
Do I need to break out the chart again?

>>12535090

>>12535091
I know about your dumb chart. It just shows that you havent studied the SPX and how it reacts for 1 year after inversion

Youre claiming recession this year when theres no inversion? This would go against your own chart for you to be in bonds now

>>12535126
Bonds inverted from the 1 year level to 7 years. That's good enough for me. Not to mention political risks like a prolonged shut down or trade war could potentially move time tables up significantly. I'm not taking any chances. If you want to get anally raped by the next crash, have at it.

THREADLY REMINDER THAT DIVIDENDS ARE YOUR FREN

divbro is drunk edition

>>12534400
It happens bro!

Bullish flag completing on tsx:gene a couple weeks before it gets listen on nasdaq, price target 1.7 with 40% upside

>>12535153
Bonds only inverted because the hikes this year were unique. If you didnt notice, most of them uninverted

So then you should know that the market rallys to all time highs after inversion right? You dont care because youre putting your economic opinion above the real market

>>12534937
There are some Feds that are as you describe but they are the white, male, top 10%'ers keeping everything together. For every 1 of them you got 9 Stacies or DeShawns making 90k with excellent benefits and a full pension to surf facebook and fill quotas.

>>12535157
Are we posting ultra-JUSTings? I don't know the story behind this one, but goddamn.

>>12535208
wow, sorry lad

>>12535238
It's not mine. Someone posted it here on smg a while back, and I forgot the story.

>>12535030
Short squeeze is approaching.

>>12535208
Dropped harder than DATSIK-SWAGGA

>>12535178
He's the type that reads zerohedge and MarketWatch and convinces himself the big drop is just around the corner for the rest of his life.

>>12535262
Makes sense someone who uses cricket wireless doesn’t make the best decisions

>>12535262
The story behind all of these pictures is the same
Here, I'll tell it to you right now

>options
>improper risk management
>the person makes one bad call, and their entire portfolio implodes

the moment T series overtakes pewdiepie, the recession goes into full swing. don't let that happen. subscribe to pewdiepie.

>>12535396
>not shorting T
>jeopardizing your internet and cellular cash cows to take out a massive loan to expand your cable business, when cable will probably cease to exist as a whole before you even pay it off

I don't understand how such terrible decisions can be made by massive companies like this. Don't they run these ideas by people? Weren't there enough stockholders with common sense to vote down this acquisition?

Retarded, crippling decisions are made by fortune 500 companies almost every day that anyone with common sense should be able to see through immediately.

>>12535378
Could have been a uvxyfag

>>12535436
Hardly any big corps make it through 2 or 3 generations, they literally make major fuck up all the time

There aren’t super genius at the top of these corps for the most part it’s internal politicians

>>12534662
Why greentext the permathing when you're the most permabull person?

>>12535378
t. salty they can lose 100x your networth and not care

>>12534802

Lean hogs down 0.15%

supreme flush tomorrow.
bulls liquidate immediately.

>>12535440
Remember that time XIV liquidated?
That's by far my favorite investing memory

>>12535178
>Bonds only inverted because the hikes this year were unique.
They were unique only in the sense that they came after a incredibly long period of near zero rates.

>So then you should know that the market rallys to all time highs after inversion right?
They might rally but if you're ignoring the yield curve as a recession indicator you're opening yourself to timing things incredibly wrong.

>>12535326
I don't read zerohedge, most of my economic opinions come from reading theory, emperical papers and listening to actual economists.

I am far from a permabull, my strategy demands I renter the market at lows and keep buying until we're late cycle again. Due to the way accumulation and monetary policy work in modern capitalism, I have little doubt new bubbles in equity will form, probably to newer even more spectacular heights.

The fact is, I've been beating the market. On the money I actively managed I got about 4-5% returns last year. A defense strategy in today's market is a winning strategy.

>>12535199
I know many latinos, blacks and women who fall into those categories too. Pop race and sex "science" doesn't actually help you much in real life, you know.

>>12535555

I lost a lot of money that day too but this particular absolute JUSTING brightened my spirit a little.

Who here /goingsenileat23/?

>>12535566
Look Scumbag commie, i dont care if youre a Financial Whatever or Jamie Dimon himself, if you dont know shit about the SPX dont even try to argue with me about it

I recommend you revise what happened during the 90s and 2002 interest rate environments since thats whats your little project is about
"they might rally" They rally about 30%. and thats during flat retail sales, flat industrial production.

>>12535378
that results into quants collapsing. they use volatility derivatives to hedge their portfolios and it's affecting the markets. they just want to keep this scheme going by renaming the same thing as new things.

circuit breakers tomorrow

the bad way

>>12535615
If you bought bonds in 1998 during the first yield curve inversion and staid in bonds until the recession you'd be still be better off than someone who just tanked the loss.

Hows everyone feeling about tomorrow
https://www.strawpoll.me/17291769

>>12535590
The graveyard of the subreddit tradevix is what I look at when I feel bad
GOOD SHIT

>>12535667
Dude, I just said dont even try, Im going to fuck you up hardcore in any SPX debate

You would be better off Holding the SPX for a year Because it rallied much harder than bonds.
the yield curve is literally a story telling you the answers, and you are predicting the end before it happens

Incase you didnt know, the first inversion happened in 2006, then 2007, then the very start of 2008 was when the SPX got ugly

>>12535683

This one?

https://www.reddit.com/r/tradeXIV/comments/7vokum/post_your_losses/

>>12535716
No, you are missing the point. The losses in the subsequent recessions wiped out all those gains. Yes, they rallied much harder, but attempting to capitalize on those gains entails massive risks because you are now attempting to time the market not on the order of years with clear late cycle signals, but months and even weeks and days using much less reliable signals that will be priced in before you know it.

>>12535724

Oh man. This hits the feels.

>I know SVXY could keep going down if the market keeps crashing. But there's no event that could trigger a XIV-like termination right?

https://www.reddit.com/r/tradeXIV/comments/7wel3k/does_svxy_have_any_blowup_risk_like_xiv/

>>12535716
yield curve signals is something people pay attention to these days. if there's a big crash, it will happen sooner than last time because it will happen because people are afraid its about to happen (or afraid that other people will sell because they're afraid that other people think its about to happen and will sell).

the psychological trauma of last time will lead to a different timing this time, and you can probably bet its going to mean shit is going to hit the fan earlier when it comes to stock market prices reacting to the signs.

>>12535555
Checked

>>12535890
hit or miss

>>12535754
Let me put this a different way. If you want to take on extra risks to get better gains, you're better off doing leveraged etfs early cycle than just betting on the market late cycle.

>>12535555
That's was some crazy stuff

>>12535754
Youre just going against your entire project then. Where is the inversion that didnt lead to Retail being squeezed out first?

>>12535878
I just hope you realize people thought the same thing in 2007 and the 90s when their shorts got wiped out

>>12535322
JJJJUUUUUUUUSSSSSSTTTTT

How do i stop being greedy and become satisfied with small gains?

>>12535914
The prudent course is to stay on the sidelines with a good buffer time between when you think it likely will happen and when you step out of the market. Sure, you might miss out on a year or two of gains, but at least you don't get justed, and you're well positioned for big gains when you buy in cheaper after prices have crashed a lot.

>>12535914
>Where is the inversion that didnt lead to Retail being squeezed out first?
I don't know and I don't care because I'm only investing in low income retailer DG, which has doing incredibly well regardless of the larger market. Even then its only a relatively small portion of my portfolio at about 15%. There's every reason to believe they will excel in a recession.

>>12535955
Place standing limit orders at your price targets.

>>12535955
Dividends. Because your dividends start earning their own money.

Compounding interest is a wonderful thing

>>12535322
Shit, that loss is double my net worth right now.

bros help, i've lost close to 20k but mainly by being a stupid faggot with no risk management.
if i make 100 a day for the rest of the year i can get all the money i lost back and then some.
is that a feasable goal? hell, even 50 a day and im back in the game.

>>12535979
There are ways to be overly greedy with dividends anon, some great dividend stocks can lose a lot in price over time. Compounding interest is much more powerful when you don't loose your principal.

>>12536018
>is that a feasable goal?

No
Not because it's hard to make 100 in a day, but because the market is never that consistent

we are about to enter a new generation of wagecuckery. AND you're shorting this!

>>12536080
>sweden willingly accepting the mark of the beast
not surprised.

>>12535958
Sitting on the sidelines for 1-2 years in cash is very hard to do when the market is rallying 30%
You will probably be inclined to believe the Fed will do something, which is what happened since the 90s, the only time this strategy is relevant

>>12536018
How much do you have left?

>>12535903
It has not been a year since then. It's been a really long year. That seems like ten years ago

>>12535979
Dividend stocks are often overpriced and mismanagement around dividends during hard times for a company is an easy trap for companies to fall into.

An investor might see "high dividends" and invest in a company that is actually deeply in debt and whose profit margin is falling, yet they don't cut the dividend even though they should because it would be a (correctly) bearish signal and would piss off the stock holders, including board members who would have to sign off on it.

Look at the incoming way Seagate and Western Digital Corporation are going to get justed as companies or cut their dividend down to almost nothing. For the financial health of the company and its long term real value, they should have removed the dividend as flash prices started to fall in 2018, but instead, WDC increased dividends and they both declared buybacks, despite large debts. Bankruptcy and/or severe dividend and buyback austerity is knocking on their doors and they are behaving like it's not happening because of the fundamentals ignoring pressure to keep up the dividends.

>>12536108
13k

>>12536091
Fucking Europe.
How can they not see how much they are being played by being so "progressive" and "liberal"?
Why do they do this?

>>12536132
As long they remain liquid, it's a valid strategy. Stay salty booboos.

alright, i went through the archives and made a list of the best finance and capital market research i've read.
it's maybe, 20 publications but might push 1,000 pages. a few of them are holy grail pieces that basically lifetime guides or develop much deeper understandings of valuation (e.g. why growing earnings can be a bad thing, etc)
most of them are probably paywalled but might be ale to find pdfs, someone here with *.edu access can get most from jstor

>>12535030
Imagine being this new

>>12536132
Thank god Dis has a high div and won't be going anywhere. Unless the kiddies stop flocking to disney world or they put out a lot of shit films in a row. Both which ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

>>12535322
there is no fucking way thats real

>>12536157
"value" is a meme. unless you know the exact motivations of the actors with very high liquidity, then you can't assume anything about the value.

>>12536147
>Why do they do this?
years of social engineering by the zionist elite has completely brainwashed them.

>>12536135
You won't get 20k without getting risky. No lie, LCI is a good bet.

But you could go safe and put it in index funds. But that's nowhere near recovering 20k in a year. That's steady long term gains.

>>12536177
This. Stock Market price levels are largely the result of what money the elites have accumulated and how easy money is in general. They are not any kind of rational analysis of the general profit levels

>>12536148
>As long they remain liquid, it's a valid strategy.
If so, and they come out on the other side unscathed, then they should remove dividends and use them for buybacks instead.

It is, however, not so. There is no end in sight for commodity digital storage being low-margin. All signs point to the same thing that happened during the DRAM company cullings in 2015-2016 happening with digital storage players over 2019 and 2020. DRAM will bounce back in 2h 2019 and the lack of a real oligopoly in Flash to restrain supply growth, as well as long term incentives for hostile intentional extension of the oversupply by companies that have other large sources of income (samsung and micron especially), and an upcoming reduction in liquidity and general increase in interest rates will result in a culling.

>>12536168
True. Players like disney and coca cola are pretty safe dividend bets because they have great moat, are not particularly cyclical and not particularly capex intensive.

>>12536234
Bankers on Bloomberg said that they are still bullish. Either they are telling the truth or not.

Trading options is the only form of entertainment where wasting all your money at least gives you a tax break. Embrace it.

>>12536177
depends if you're equivocating on the term or not. in the industry, "value" is a measure of book to market (HML). it's one of the original 3 factors from fama & french and has persistently delivered abnormal returns even since publication
the main theory for why HML hasn't been arbitraged away is that it captures some unknown risk, the most likely being bankruptcy (default risk)
and never respond to me again, your post had no connection to mine at all

=Beginner's Macro / Credit Cycle / Meme=
Dalio - How the Economic Machine Works (March 2012 updated version)
Odlyzko - Newton's Financial Misadventures in the South Sea Bubble

=/biz/ Needs=
Arnott - The Myth of Dynastic Wealth - The Rich Get Poorer (2015)
Bernstein - If You Can - How Millenials Can Get Rich Slowly (2014)
French - The Cost of Active Investing (2008)
The Persi Investment Portfolio (March 29, 2018)

=Dilution=
Arnott - Earnings Growth: The Two Percent Dilution (2003)
Root - Share Repurchases and Long-Term Dilution: Firm Characteristics and Industry Differences

=Dividends=
Arnott - Surprise! Higher Dividends Equals Higher Earnings Growth
Cambria - Do You Pay Taxes? Then Avoid Dividends and Do This Instead (a contrarian piece for fun)
Conover - What Difference Do Dividends Make? (Financial Analysts Journal v72 n6)
Montier - A Man from a Different Time (2010)
Zhou - Dividend Payout and Future Earnings Growth (Financial Analysts Journal v62 n3)

=Taxation and Real Returns=
Arnott - Is Your Alpha Big Enough to Cover Its Taxes? (the original 1993, the "Revisited" edition, and the "Quarter-Century Retrospective")
Cook - Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategies (Financial Analysts Journal v71 n2)
Horvitz - Myths, Folklore, and Misunderstandings about Taxable Investment Management
Thornburg Investment Management - A Study of Real Real Returns (2015)

=The Holy Grail=
CFA - Investment Management for Taxable Private Investors (2006)

=Lesser Grails=
Geddes - What Would Yale Do If It Were Taxable? (Financial Analysts Journal v71n4)
Mauboussin - M&M on Valuation (2005)
Mauboussin - Thoughts on Valuation (1997)

>>12536291
So many people seem to get hooked on options but never actualy make money.. they may get 100% here and there but i don't know many consistent options traders.. I'd rather sell options and let theta work for me than to buy options and have theta work against me..

>>12536275
I'm quite sure they are probably telling the truth, but the issue is their sentiment will change once fear takes over the market during a crash. Markets may not /rationally/ respond to profits and information about profits, but they do respond to them. If a general contraction could result in defaults and bankruptcies, as well as lower profits, there will be a radical change in sentiment among those who control accumulated capital.

>>12536340
85% of all options expire worthless

problem with option selling is you will get some 6 sigma event that will blow you up

Probably the best way overall to trade option is like Taleb trades, but it's very low probability and most people can't handle being right 1% of the time and losing 99%

Here's a classic about how simple capitalism really is
https://archive.org/details/MerrieMelodiesYankeeDoodIt1956

>>12536385
>problem with option selling is you will get some 6 sigma event that will blow you up
Selling covered calls at my target price on my long holdings has worked out for me for awhile... also selling puts at a price where i'm willing to purchase a security hasn't really done me too dirty except for LCI.. but there's a lot of value in LCI.. i don't go off market sentiment.. i go off the company and their share structure.. and what i would value it at...

To each their own.. everyone has their ways of making money in the market.. as long as you are making money....

Kinda sad that some of the people that never make money will try and talk other people down.. just because they suck at making money doesn't mean everyone else does...

I think the canaries in the coal mine are the "darling growth stocks" (tesla, netflix, nvidia, amd, even amazon) and cyclical stocks entering a downturn (especially semiconductors with fabs and fab suppliers) having taken a much harder hit than they usually would.

It signals that there really is a lot of fear and that the powder in the keg is dry and set to blow when it comes to the rest. The companies valued on "forward fundamentals" and companies whose fundamentals are on a downwards trajectory are good to watch for general market fear measurement. It's high.

>>12536346
So, who control the accumulated capital?

>>12536511
Large capitalists tend to have family controlled firms that allocate investment, besides them, there's fund managers, banks, ect. The fact is most of the sources just dump this money into equities since they earn the best returns, generating a positive feedback loop as the demand for equities as an investment increases the price levels. But unlike normal commodities, where this would decrease demand, the speculative nature of stocks causes the demand to continue to increase until the underlying economic situation signals lower profits, defaults, and the rest.

Look this young chap WEED ZOMBIE in the eyes and tell him how the weed stocks are going to perform in the next 1-2 weeks

>>12536511
Capital is unironically sentient

>>12536610
They might go down a bit, but weed is the long game, the demand is there, just need to change more laws.

If anyone is having a bad day, just read this guys stocktwits. It was posted last thread, this is a goldmine for market gore.
https://stocktwits.com/Trials233

>>12536754
Read meltdown...AGAIN

>>12536754
That explains its desire to kill itself

>>12537034
Recessions and depressions is when capital becomes suicidal with menstrual pains. Capital is a woman.
>>12536913
Thanks for reminding me to buy that

>>12537034

>>12537034
The body without organs and the teleoplexic process of capital
>>12537069
It’s free online gomfer. I dunno if urbanomic is still selling fangy nummies, they were sold out for a while and I want a second copy since mine is all dirty. Also look up Anders J Aamodt

i miss kaban so bad bros

>>12537143
sorry this isnt the kemono friend thread fuck

>>12537102
I need it in hard back because I'm a pleb

This futures flatline routine is making me nervous. Mild or major red or green is fine, but I dunno about this flat. It's like nobody wants to commit to anything until tomorrow's market hours.

>>12537264
What's significant tomorrow?

>>12537298
Nothing material. Technical thing. It's more about the time coming for a possible short term trend reversal on the indices. There have been two consecutive lower highs off the most recent peak on the Nasdaq and S&P. Often that means decision time is imminent; either punch up to a fresh new short term high, attempt a new high but wind up with a double top, do an inside candle (kick the can down the road and delay decision), or dump down.

>>12537386
historically speaking the spy should punch through most of the downward sloping moving averages right now before another largish correction

>>12537386
Ah ok.

can you imagine not being long NIO?

>>12535322
Anon, I

I am angry that my stocks are down what the fuck I picked winners

>>12537455
I am angry that my stocks are up what the fuck I shorted losers.

>>12537455
nice mousepad btw

>>12537497
it's a custom ordered one of a kind mousepad courtesy of artsbovine

Is the combination of food stocks and semiconductors the most kino portfolio known to man?
Yes, yes it is.

Is anyone well versed in bond ETF's? I'm thinking of parking my cash there instead of just leaving it in my account and letting robinhood get my precious shekels.

>>12537455
Clean your fucking bong.

>>12537149
nik nik I tried to watch kemono friends, what the fuck is wrong with it? The characters drift and slide all over the screen like its a late 90s bowling alley animation. It's surreal; it's like watching a motion comic of that iron maiden cover with the mannequins rendered on a dying video card.

>>12537655
ok before I go to bed
And let me say, I use colgate toothbrush + colgate mouthwash and also colgate toothpaste

Kemono friends is a masterpiece, near the end.
Season 2 howvever, I want to kill myself. I hope I dont wake up tommrow because of this. Goodnight

I'm defeated...

Need a job. Trying to expatriate by 2024.

We all grow up eventually, but 6 or 7 years ago I was playing a high limit poker game. 5-10 no limit texas hold em you need like 2 grand just to sit down.. Game gets short handed and I end up banging this broad for like 34 hundred or so... I saw her again tonight and uhhh realized she's the most attractive girl I have ever met. So of course I don't actually talk to her because you know what I don't want to have to deal with her baggage, but damn. Professional poker playing is actually nothing like trading on the markets. In poker you have to actively look for losers that you can basically take advantage of... when you become an above average player you understand completely the game is just bullshit and all about finding the losers, but keeping the losers entertained enough to keep coming back... I didn't fuck her I didn't ask for her number, but you know what... Henceforth I will no longer tripcode post on this NY Islanders hockey forum where people post pictures of child pornography and share desires to murder innocent individuals. I will still post, maybe people will know its me maybe people won't but I'm uhh going to be more respectful and maybe a little more ruthless to trip fags... You all are like my family, but I am going to quote Ghandi, "post bobs and vagene" no sorry "You must be the change you want to see in the world.". In other words, although life changes are inevitable, we can also initiate personal change so we can rise to the challenge and become a bigger and better person as a result.

I will be here and still taking trades and calling out bullshit, but I want you all to have one of my favorite songs all time in your lives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd3E9_2ow9M

Cheers to you all and to new beginnings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUgLge_MPIM

I hope they come up with a cure for dementia before I totally lose my mind. I can't even spell words I used to be able to spell no problem, anymore. Maybe I should stop eating carbs. Or something. That apparently has something to do with cognitive function.

>>12538247
just uhhh embrace retardation and accept your fate...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqNV5QHy1pg&index=3&list=PLZn9y_vphSvQstmRVriq9cIKnHlenRqBy

>>12538284
Well I guess dying of dementia is better than being stabbed by a nigger because Ocasio-Neocortex said that its dem wypipos faults for holding out on dem gibs.

Crash when anons?

>tfw started investing in August and still 2% down even now.

>>12538558
Monday

I'm new to the stock market, what stocks should I buy?

>>12539051
Lci
Sesn
Abil
Mnga

>>12538393
SPY 1000 EOY

>>12539051
T (AT&T)
KO (Cocacola)
GIS (General Mills)
KHC (Kraft Foods)
XOM (Exxon Mobile)
IBM (IBM)

>>12539051
Before you buy anything, make a brokerage account and read investopedia articles and/or the books in the OP list. If you don't have a broker, you can't buy stocks and if you blindly buy things without understanding how the stock market works or doing any research on the individual stocks you're buying, you will lose money and it will be entirely your fault.

whadda fug!!!

>>12539180
This is actually a GOAT dividend portfolio

>>12539192
Not really

>>12534393
This post aged poorly.

>>12539205
The Boomer is weak in this one

>>12539211
Ouch, baby

Bullish bias today
Staying above 262 very good

Expect it to be ranging day, bouncing between 263 and 265

>>12539238
Exxon is liek what? 5% div now? Bitch please I don't buy anything below 6.5 for div income.

>>12539262
Reliability over Yield
>Bitch please I don't buy anything below 6.5 for div income.
Because you're trying to run a dividend portfolio with 2k.

>>12536885
People like this can't be real >_>
He not even understood what SPY am, the kind of pure cesspool of global risk management it is.... the most arbitraged ETF currently on the market ...

Kek were realing the s&p twits
Only 2% of those posts were even in the ball park of reality
EU rates effecting SPY price, and t HG at little sell off few mins ago people who want to avoid volatility today

>>12539278
>US company in 2k19
>Reliability
If you look international 5% is really low. If I want risk I'll go for 12-15%. I'm ok with staying around 10

>>12539262
Big oil is dead anyways long term. When assembling a dividend portfolio you gotta look at stocks that will still be around 100 years from now, at least that's how I play it since I want to keep reinvesting the dividends into more dividends until the effect starts to snowball.

My holdings at the moment

KHC
VZ
KDP

I don't plan on ever selling any of these except possibly at the end of my lifetime.
Going to buy the MKC dip today.

>>12539317
>Big oil is dead anyways long term
Yikes!

>>12539317
I'm only going for 5-15years so not as long term as you and I reinvest dividends into new companies. Diversity is my strength in these uncertain times imho. So snowball effect works opposite direction to yours. Too early to tell whether it's good or not we'll see in 2021 22

>>12539316
Which company is more likely to suck a dick and die?
>Coca-Cola
>Or some shitty foreign meme with an *advertised* 12% yield

>MKC down 12% and still dropping in premarket

That's going to get a yikes from me lads.

>>12539317
Going to buy MKC if it's at 125 or lower when GALT sells

>>12534393
BLOWN THE FUCK OUT
BLOWN THE FUCK OUT
BLOWN THE FUCK OUT
BLOWN THE FUCK OUT
BLOWN THE FUCK OUT

what's up with EUR / USD today?

>>12536885
Yikes.

>"lost 45% of my account in 2 weeks on this bs pump"
>"I'm in options trades so conservative its comical and still losing fuckin money to decay"
Gosh, that sure doesn't sound like conservative options trading.

>"the rate i see options decaying market is saying 0% chance of any down movement whatsoever this year"
If you needed any proof that this guy isn't even a novice, this is it. Totally meaningless gibberish.

>>12539441
europe kept rates @ 0% for all eternity
free moneu forever !

>>12539317
>possibly at the end of my lifetime.
you're supposed to lock those shares in trust and give dividends to your kids in the hopes that they get the idea and buy their own shares to refresh the cycle.

>>12534393
BAHAHAHAHAHA

>>12539404
Unironically Cola looking at their debt levels and comparing it to 9% yield metals exporter with nice asset cover.

>>12539467
>le zoomer who needs mommas help to succeed in life.

>>12539490
wrong. i'm a millenial with kids. boomers were right all along.

Guys check XLNX.
Just past its past ath, this could be a MASSIVE short opportunity

>>12539506
Agreed

>>12539516
>a stock is the strongest it has ever been since its inception
>time to put on a massive short

>CTL

If they cut the dividend I'm screwed

>>12539541
>mfw been watching CTL for ages and the time for buying may be upon me

>bought 20 shares of MKC at $119

Anyone else buy the dip in this once in a lifetime buying opportunity?

fucking barts

What the fuck is oil doing? All my stocks are doing well today except my oil companies which are shitting the bed right about now especially VET

>>12539606
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-23/wti-extends-losses-after-big-surprise-crude-build

american airlines and good year tires is up
Low oil effect

what the absolute fuck is going on. why did so many things rise only 0.3% premarket, but then suddenly 6% in the first 15 minutes of trading?
is some algo vs algo HFT trading bug?

what's with the red open this morning
I'm down $80

ACRS - opinions?

What should I do with my PAAS?

ALT
CZR
SGMS

told y'all but you wanna listen to faggie baggie

>>12539686
>I'm down $80

I sold 5,000 shares of SGYP three weeks ago at .25 to make about $125, feels bad seeing the current price

>>12539814

I want to make my own market monitoring application as a programming project.
Are there any public (read:free) APIs that let me get relatively recent market info?

Knowing trading, it's probably all locked down behind a rather substantial paywall

I am a degenerate gambler.
Just realized it.

>>12539874
u lost money?
in this market?

>>12539881
Yea haha.

>>12539825
But I am in the money on an AMD option I think for the first time ever, so there's that

>>12539955
Wouldn't it be funny if you lost money on that, too?

>>12534834
>There are poor FED workers who need to be paid.
Nope

I don't know what to do in this market and it makes me scared.

>>12534374
F dividends soon frens.
i might try to pick up some D soon

>>12540060
ditto

I'm bagholding a bunch of biotech stocks that got justed in December and haven't really recovered, and I can't tell if we're done with the crash or if another is about to happen.

and I feel like volatility products are too high to buy into but too low to short

>>12534374
>FDA basically neutered during shutdown
>meanwhile Health Canada is in full swing

Huge growth going to happen soon once approved

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/delta-9-signs-master-license-agreement-with-nanosphere-health-sciences-872827826.html

Was down $1500 this morning, currently down $900

>>12534393
BTFO
T
F
O

TMDI up another 6% today anons. I'm just trying to help

>>12534393
did he die?

>>12540147
This short term speculative growth is interesting but imo, pending 501k approval, this will easily be a 5-10 year long.

>>12540060
dividends are your fren

holding dividend aristocrats and kings and contenders means you can not care about the short term price but you're focused on long term gains. all while creating a passive income snowball that gives comfy feels

>>12540158

Based on my research of this space I see one of 3 things happening

1. FDA application fails and this goes to 0 very quickly.

2. They get approval and then are bought out for <$5B by a company with the manufacturing and sales power necessary.

3. Titan refuses to sell, tries to become the next Intuitive, and succeeds.

Imo I think 2 is the most likely, and will be much shorter term (2020?).

>>12540200
Yeah a BO would be nice, my model for a long play is based on them trying to pull an ISRG. I personally would reduce my position prior to the FDA decision to hedge bets. Titan's been on top of things so far though. Toronto has a really experienced biotech community. One of the top biomed engineering schools on the continent.

>>12540229

I managed to buy in at 1.20ish so I'm just going to ride or die this. Hedging before FDA is probably the right call though

Threadly reminder to dollar cost average into SPY and blue chips.

>>12540265
Based. I am already dollar cost averaging into my shorts.

>Goyim thinking they can make it at the chosen people's game
I should have never started.
Get out while you can, bros.

>>12540282
I'm doing something into MY shorts, if you know what I mean.

That's right. Cumming. To the thought of you bears getting blown the fuck out!

F

>>12540303
Ford or are you paying respects?

>>12540320
Ford

>>12534956

Its bs

I think its time to start shilling NOK again. Get it before May 31 when the div goes ex as it is a rare annual dividend. its gonna get a 5G pamp-pamp too

>>12540302
Holy shit are you German? The jokes are whole new level, kek.
Anyways the people with the best fapping pictures will ascend to godhood. Repent, sinner, while you can.

>>12540303
>>12540329
Still overvalued.

no one talking about MO?

tastiest cheapies out there today

load up on SGMO for a bit more speculative pick

>>12540341
I have already become as gods, anon.

>>12540400
I thought I bought the bottom of MO, i was wrong. Waiting to see what earnings show before i throw any more money at it. I have a small position because its divvy and I think it may have a turnaround with vaping and marijuana down the line.

>>12540282
you and me both

>>12539962
Pennies away from my sell order, need AMD at about 20.72 and I'm out

heh maybe i shoulda bought alot more.

>>12540430
What biotech meme are you buying next anon? I want in.

>>12540430
careful there big spender

nudeeee

>>12540467
>>12540467
>>12540467
>>12540467

>>12534374
At work and cant go check my TA, is PM printing a classic double bottom right now or not

>>12540430
I need to stop looking at this chart today, would be up so fucking much if I held