/biz/ - Business & Finance

and boomers.

Consider that there are millions of morons who have reverse mortgaged to "enrich" themselves or start small businesses. A large correction would be serious shit for the broader economy given that Australia has been surviving on GDP "growth" more or less from boomers flipping houses.

Feels bad man.


also fuck KRudd.

>do it faggot

Only the slow and stupid get caught. Look at property prices, the smart money has akready sold up in Sydney and Melbourne and bought into Hobart and environs.

>>11458387
>Hobart
>smart
Pick one

>>11457787

WHY ARE YOU SO UPSET

>>11458432
t. Huntah Kaine Thompson
Property values in Hobart are going to soar medium term. MONA alone has done massive things for Tasmania's economy and Hobart has been flooded with mainland immigrants as a result of its success.

>IO+P rolling over
>Documented thousands of liar loans
>International rates going up forcing rates in Australia to go up without RBA
>Complete removal of Chinese buyers who weren't 'just' buyers, but were paying overs for everything and causing huge price jumps - not because of an intrinsic value of the property, but because of the intrinsic value of offshoring the most capital in one transaction.
>Credit lending reduced by 40% meaning borrowers who couldve had 1m a few years ago can only get 600k today
>The country has woken upto the population ponzi and now the major parties have to actually discuss reducing immigration after avoiding that issue for 20 years
>Oversupply of properties with thousands still to come on the market
>Sentiment at its lowest since the GFC
>Wage growth at or below CPI which doesnt include rent
>Falling savings rate
>Falling discretonary income rate

lol

>>11458478
t. baby boomer

Prices arent going up because of some stupid art shit you idiot its because the sydney and melbourne people were priced out and had to flock to the cheapest properties in a capital city in Australia

The investors that had planned to invest in Syd/Melb/Bris have decided to goto Hobart and Adelaide instead because they still have growth due to the factor in the first paragraph

The chinese buying is probably the only reason there is some actual housing market. And if you really dont like the global free market then its your governments fault not the Chinese.

>>11458511
>stupid art shit
Stupid art shit, stupid arts festival shit, stupid flow on tourism industry shit, stupid shit that's causing lowering unemployment and big improvements to the state's economy, but I suppose there's no pull factors at all that make it an attractive opportunity compared to a decade or two ago, there's nothing in it but halo effect.

Dipshit.

>>11458637
it wouldnt transform an entire economy you sperg

Would love for the market to collapse here, but I feel it will be kept afloat.

>>11457787
>foreign (read: Chinese) "investors"
They already got BTFO'd.
That is why the smart Chinks sold/exit scammed early this year.
Funny thing is it will be everyday Strayans(And retard brainwashed Chinks) hodling dem bags to the bottom

If you know where the Chinese were investing heavily you can see where the biggest price falls already are. From there the price falls drag down the surrounding suburbs, and then the ones around them, and so on. Ripple effect.

I know a suburb where median 3br homes were selling for $1.6m last year and sell for $1.2m today

>>11458892
Nice dip, but how low will it go?

Guys, you have no idea how low the market will go. Basically, the problem is that there has been a bond bubble for the past 25 years.

Housing operates like the bond market. Let me explain:

Over past 25 years, interest rates have been falling on average, which has meant that the prices of bonds, which had higher interest rates locked in, had climbed.

Housing prices are limited by the total amount that people can borrow, and everyone always borrows to the max. When interest rates are low, they can borrow more money,. So the price of houses increases in the same way that bonds increase.

The problem is, what happens when interest rates increase?

Well, in bonds, the value of existing bonds falls, because you can get higher interest rates with new bonds.

Likewise, housing will fall.

The reserve bank of Australia knows this, and is concerned about the economy if this happens. So, they won't raise rates immediately.

However, the interest rates available to the consumer in Australia are based more on the availability of international credit than credit from the reserve bank.

If interest rates keep rising in the USA, they will rise in Australia.

Also, the more the interest rates rise in the USA, the greater the differential between the interest rates of both countries which puts pressure on the AUD:usd Australian dollar.

If the Aud:usd drops below 50 cents, the reserve bank will be forced to raise interest rates to defend the Aussie dollar.

Now, this is baked in, and is just for starters. What happens psychologically to all those boomers who believed that housing was a safe asset that keeps growing every year?

Well, they stop investing in assets which lose them money.

Think about the implications of this.

why are foreigners allowed to own land and property in western countries? how did everything get so cucked?

>>11457787
petrol prices are fucking fucked in this country

>>11458928

Consider all the factors here >>11458492 assigning a percentile range you would apply to each factor to drag down the price of your own home, or if being objective is hard, pick a random home and try be objective. Then add all the ranges together and youll have the change range you predict.

>>11458937
Civic nationalism. All Western countries are proposition nations. If you hold a piece of paper and pay lip service to some ideas you're just as Australian as a 8th generation settler from the UK.

>>11458937

It's staggering the lengths we will go to to not be considered stupid or mean.

>>11457787
It's already popped lmao

>>11458954
Furthermore in Australia at least construction and the housing market is keeping the economy afloat

Sorry mate but property in Sydney isnt gonna drop below 1m any time soon. Too many people moving in, not enough dwellings being built, and no one wants to live all the way out west.

>>11458663
Might sound unlikely but the museum has jacked the tourism industry, not only specifically in Hobart but also the state as a whole, and its not without international precedent. Some of the effects on GSP are masked by events but its all there in the tourism stats, or many articles if you can't be bothered with the numbers. I was going to write a longer reply but it's pearls to swine.

>>11459025
Haha.
Believe the immigration meme at your peril.

>>11459025
I don't know what sort of drop people are hoping for. They've increased stamp duty for the chinks, supers are going to start offloading.... but there's still a shitload of buyers who never got a chance the last few years because they've been outbid.
The property market has dropped 10%, that's huge in itself. We'll most definitely flat-line for a while, but it's a buyers market. My recommendation to most of my friends is now is the time.
I've recently purchased a house, and I basically got it at the price it was 3 or 4 years ago.

>>11459059
Don't advise your friends to catch a falling knife. In a few years they will hate you.

>>11459043

I've never been to the southern hemisphere but I'm interested, hit me with it anon.

>>11457787
> I hope foreign (read: Chinese) "investors" get blown the fuck out for considering our housing market to be the Bank of China to park their cash in.
Not their fault mate. It's the traitorous boomers in charge.

>>11459049
>>11459067
If they stopped immigration, which I certainly hope they do, the market would tank correct. But I'd rather get fucked for a few years and pay off a house I paid to much for than live around a growing Black African population.

>>11459049
If by immigration you mean people from small towns moving to sydney because thats where all the work is, sure.

>>11458949
Looks like Straya is set to become 'White Trash' for good this time.
'The underpinnings of a comfortable Australian way of life were slowly but inexorably dissolving.
The Lucky Country thesis was not valid for all time.’

It's not the future I chose but hey, Thunderdome

>>11458612
This.

>>11459086
My man!

>>11458937
>>11458954
So when western countries were setting up colonies it was perfectly fine?

>>11458612
Anyone else think that the future underclass will be Chinese Australians? The ones I know have 2 or 3 properties minimum, all max leveraged.

>>11459087
This is correct. But for a ling time 1 in 4 buyers in the inner cities have been foreigners. 1 in 4.
So it's not even country kids looking to come in. A lot of first time buyers have been locked out for a while.

Hopefully the same happens in canada. Shitshack methhouses in downtown vancouver going for unironically millions of bucks, the one in this pic? 2.4 million. Thank you based Chinese! Thank you pothead homeless white liberals! Thank you mortgage enslaved boomers!

>>11458937
For Australia, they need a local joint 'partner' for them to own real estate of any kind.
The Opportunists rich or not simply seized the opportunity and became even more filthy rich.

>>11459111
Yes lol we beat them and conquered them

>>11459111

Considering much of the land they were on wasn't thought of as valuable until white people told them it was then realized enough of its potential to make it valuable basically yes.

>have tons of land
>housing prices are almost unaffordable
It's gonna burst

move you poorfags. if you can't afford to live in the city, gtfo or apply for social housing.

>>11459117
>Chinese Australians
>Well-educated
>Under-class

Most likely not. It'd probably still be the Abos or the rural bogans

Canada is starting to roll over too

1 year ago a couple making 125k could get an 800k mortgage, after the new government stress test they can only get 600k now, by next year after the federal reserves cranks interest rates up another 4 times it will fall to 500k

Right now the average house is 550k and the average income nowhere near 125k(it is 70k)

>>11459097
>Low population, abundant land and resources, produce twice as much food as needed, low corruption, relatively low gov debt.
I think we'll be fine.

>>11459219
Anecdotally, the mortgage cucks at my work are complaining about getting buttfucked when they renewed their mortgages for the next 5 years

>>11459142
By that logic foreigners have money to spend so they have the right to buy land/property
>>11459156
Then why is it a problem or being "cucked" for foreigners owning property if they have the same view about the potential of what they're buying

>>11458935
why 50 cents? Why not 65 cents?

>>11459308
> By that logic foreigners have money to spend so they have the right to buy land/property
They have the "right" because our cucked politicians permit to buy land.

Also, what are you Jewish?

>>11459308

Because they're not invested in the local area. A tribal man can look at a coastline and see a fishing operation, a medieval man can look at it and see a harbor along with suitable locations for defensive fortifications, while a more modern man with a map will be able to see the bigger picture in the region and see what sort of strategic advantage it can give him. Real estate speculation/savings insulation provides none of the advantages of even colonization, including defense and infrastructure.

>>11459086
house price is largely determined by Credit supply not so much supply and demand for the actual house.

>>11459117
Probably not, mate. A majority of Chinese Australians I’ve met are not investors, but are just mostly immigrants and Australian-born citizens.

I seriously doubt a couple millionaires from China are gonna change that.

There are so many flow on effects from the housing bubble popping. My strategy has been to sell my car (used cars are dirt cheap in a crash), buy bitcoin (aud is going to crash if they print money to save banks or reduce mortgage stress, you want your money in non aud markets), get a well paid government job that will still be necessary if construction goes down and all the industries linked to it follow.

Good luck anons.

>>11459802

Most of my shekels are in AUD.

I'm not comfortable buying any more crypto, and I'm skeptical about stocks, and don't believe the goldbug meme. The fuck else do I buy? USD? GBP?

>>11459117
You are spot on becuase the Filipino's went invest crazy pre GFC. they all had 2 or 3 houses working normal jobs. GFC destroyed Filipino's. Half of them went bankrupt.

>>11459248
Nice synopsis. Pretty safe but for full blown war.

>>11459849
Tbh i am also skeptical about worldwide economy therefore feel most comfortable in bitcoin. I guess if you don't have that concern foreign shares, bonds and currencies might be good. If you have a bit in crypto it might be enough of a hedge.

People don't understand that diversification also applies outside of asset classes. If you make all your income from aus employers, and own aus assets and aus shares, you are really exposed to an aus recession.

>>11459849
Physical gold is a meme, buy minerals shares. If the AUD tanks then the cost of labour for those companies will go down also.

>>11459849
>chinese economy teetering on collapse
>japan zombie mode for 30 years
>investors know the EU is a failure but they refuse to admit

Hence why all the capital is going into the US stockmarket

Auction clearance rates under 49% in Sydney and Melb today you reckon lads?

I'm feeling bearish after AMP came out this week saying 20% falls

>>11460141
kinda makes me happy that I’ll be around to watch the boomers squirm

>>11459111
We went to those countries to help you become civilized.

Some places like India and China claimed to be civilized and have valuable civilizations, but didn't really.

The proof is in the pudding, as they say. Which part of China is more civilized? Well the parts that were colonized the longest and have social structures and legal systems from the colonial period, HK, and Taiwan.

When the British left India, the trains stopped running on time and corruption exploded. Proof Indians were and are not as civilized as they like to think.

About Africa, I don't think anybody here needs to be redpilled on that.

That's why colonialism cannot be compared with the current situation.

>>11460121
it's all smoke and mirrors here too mate
the pied piper will eventually have his due

>>11459111
>>11459308
Abos were actually doing their best to not be conquered but they were just so primitive that their efforts didn't amount to much. Right now we're not doing everything to avoid being cucked. You could argue that this represents our current collective ability to fend off an invasion, but by no means is this the theoretical limit of our abilities and it doesn't mean we shouldn't strive to be more unified and do more for our future.

>>11459074
Depends where you are from, the unique/interesting places are coastal tropical rainforest along the east coast, temperate rainforest in southern regions, the outback. Cities don't have anywhere near the cultural variation as Aussies make out
Tasmania was described to me by a Scot as like Scotland but with better weather

Labor will certainly win the next election, and Shorten has indicated that he will stick to his guns and start killing off Negative Gearing and Capital Gains concessions, which were two of the things that were propping up the market. That will be a bit of a shock, but the changes in law won't apply retroactively.

But...

The Royal Commission has caused lending standards to tighten, but not enough. Looks like the banks will get away with it. Meanwhile the RBA has been colluding with the current government to keep houses high, and if stress does happen they can still lower rates.

Chinese can still launder money through property because there are no money laundering laws (KYC etc.) applicable to property in Australia. In Australia you literally cannot put $1 on a pre-paid card without showing government issued ID and getting put into a database, but you can literally buy a $20 million dollar property with a suitcase full of cash no questions asked. This law isn't going to change. There's talk of disallowing any cash transactions for any value about $10,000, but even if that goes through it's still pretty trivial for Chinese to launder money into Australia.

Also both sides of politics continue to work for mass immigration and are supported by the media. Property prices can't fall too far if there's a constantly growing demand for housing.

In other words, there will be further falls but we will likely not have a property crash because, some token policies aside, politicians, government organizations, big business, and the media are all in a soft collusion to keep prices from tumbling.

Aussies are the wealthiest in the world and you faggots still complain!!! Bet half you cunts vote for the Greens. Just fucking leave already poor cunts

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-top-global-household-wealth-2018-10

>>11460356
That's because the median Australian is a property owner, and property prices are artificially high. The cost of having those artificially high prices is a constant deluge of new Chinese, Somalians, and Muslim citizens.

i doubt the market will crash that bad. you can buy a unit 30mins drive from melbourne for 500k.
i bought my first house 9 years ago for 300k, already paid it off. waiting for the market to crash so i can buy another. i don't think outer burbs will drop most, considering they're letting so many cunts in to the country

theres a handful of boomers on social media that keep repeating the superannuation meme ad nuseum, as in there is roughly 1 trillion dollars worth of super that is about to be withdrawn in the not so distant future and claim that it will have a massive effect on the housing market. corelogic or one of those data analysts came up with a rough figure for the average house price (in sydney) in the next twenty years, ~6.2 million. i honestly think its bullshit but then again boomers like to spend their super on the worst things imaginable. theres a bigger chance that they will spend it on a new 4x4 & caravan combo and claim the pension on top of it

Boomers talking to their financial advisors over the next 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nVk25ZvTkU

>>11460356
>>11460374

its also because we have a small population but as it grows the median and average wealth decreases but ironically the only thing propping up the wealth was foreign investment into real estate so the only reason youre wealthy is why youre grandchildren will be poor

>>11460281
Also there's the top end, which is a different kind of outback. Tropical but not in the same way as Queensland. More rocky and wild.

>>11458637
Are Aussies this delusional? Look up property prices in Indonesia they have a huge tourism industry and property is worthless

>>11458637
Poofs dressing up as stags and bunyips isn't going to sustain a state's economy, idiot.

>>11460505
increasing tourism in an already developed nation will have a different impact than tourism in a third world country

>i had to write that out

>>11460141

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRFhNZNu_xw

>>11460557

>>11459849
>2017
>Had 200k in AUD
>Feared inflation, invested all in BTC, LINK, ETH
>2018 now, AUD is 0.71 and steeping lower
>My stack is still worth 700k with the bear market
>Comfy

The sad part is I warned Aussies on whirlpool and they just ignored me.

>>11460341
Wouldnt stopping negative gearing but letting everyone who already has be an incentive to get a another property and cause a bull run of sorts? Doesnt it give the boomers an incentive to hang on for dear life?

>ALP win government today and NG goes byebye and CGT goes byebye

i still see chinese investors buying property
the slowly falling house price emboldened them
having land that they are able to pass onto their children is a foreign concept, no 99 year lease bullshit, when relations improve again with china you'll see prices creep up again. For them paying these prices are far cheaper than in their homeland, these people have more cash per person that you do in your entire family.

t. i work in realestate

>>11460751
Can you please answer this real estate anon>>11460735

>>11460735
if they remove negative gearing the house prices will fall slightly, but will cause rent prices to go up a significant amount, which in turn will make property look lucrative for long term.

>>11460786
rent cant go up any higher, theirs a hard limit to how much the primary renting demographics are actually able to pay.

>>11460790
i have no clue about demographics. it will go higher, it already has in a lot of areas around here.

>>11460786
Surely the rental market will still work on supply and demand. The wages arent getting any better. Anyone whose investment properties are negative geared will have a massive advantage in that market, and no incentive to buy another

>>11460532
>sustained double digits growth to tourism isn't real because I don't like pinkos :'(
Don't be a fuckwit. If MONA was publically listed we'd all have shares.

>>11460820
it cant balance itself when immigration exceeds supply, and if labor goes into power they have made it clear they wont change that.

prices will never stabilize for rent and prices

>>11457787
The data says that house prices in Australia are already DOWN 6% over the last 12 months, and the falls are accelerating. China is having major credit problems of their own making (this hasn't hit mainstream news yet).

>>11460851
they've been saying this since 2016.

>>11458935
This. Due to the cycle since 1982 plus government and central bank intervention, people have forgotten that a house that you live in is actually a liability, not an asset.

>>11460866
But it's actually happening, like, right now.

>>11457787
>I hope it bursts hard and every cunt with too many mortgages gets rekt.

me too anon, me too

>>11460866

>>11460877
thats the problem, it may, or may not burst. They may find a solution before it happens and all the doomsayers will be left cucked

>>11460877
i forgot to add, it might happen like in 2008, but then they'll find a quick fix or real solution that lasts another 10 or 20 years.

>>11458928
both japan and usa houses dropped 50% within 5-10 years of their bubbles bursting

ours have been propped up much more, so ours could drop 60-70%

>>11460736
Don't forget franking credits!

>>11457787
this godforsaken hellhole has been long overdue for a good economic recession. i for one think the dumbcunts and whores that constitute this country deserve to suffer 100%.

bring it on! and make sure it's long and painful.

>>11460887
i saw your previous posts, chinese are still at auctions buying everything up with every fall.

>>11460915
you're in for a disappointment if you're expecting a US style recession or depression.

>>11460920
oh am i? wait and see. they've been pushing it off for literally decades now and there's nothing in this shitty economy that warrants the economic stability we've had for so long.

it's gonna come crashing down, and it's gonna be bad. enjoy the ride.

>>11460916
thats weird cause im not seeing that, but i am seeing chinese suburbs prices dropping at huge rates

north ryde anyone? north sydney anyone?

dont believe statistics, that anon has anecdotes

why dont we just get one of these 3d printers from russia and start printing houses like mad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH-zpnoNLEU

let the boomercucks rot in their pile of bricks while we print ourselves houses at 15k a pop
all we need is one printer and we can bodyslam any construction company out there

and we'll ban all investors and boomers from buying

>>11460938
i work in realestate. you should look at it long term and not just in the last 2 years you armchair economist

>>11460811
until people tap out, which they will soon as everything rises in price

>>11460868
t. Rich dad

>>11460951
good for you, we arent buying longterm chart you spastic

prices are going down today, tomorrow, the next day, next week, next year

buy whatever you want what the fuck do i care if you wanna lose money? be my guest you idiot

>>11460936
based and redpilled

https://medium.com/@matt_11659/matt-barrie-australias-economy-is-a-house-of-cards-6877adb3fb2f

>>11460936
okay peter schiff whatever you say

>>11460953
the people that snatch up rentals are usually the same people that buy the properties, guess their races

>>11460960
you sound mad, I'm not sure anyone of our clients lost money, they certainly showed no signs of stress. our property prices will probably dip and then hit new highs 4 years later

>>11460941
Sweet, now all you need is a block of land for half a million.

>>11460596
dont worry, they can shine your shoes on the moon base

>>11460356
>Bet half you cunts vote for the Greens
Imagine voting for the only party with a drug policy that isn't absolute nonsense and with any environmental policy at all. Fucking lefty loonies.

>>11460982
>any environmental policy at all
Oh yeah, what's that?
1) No nuclear reactors ever
2) More migrants

>>11460971
do you know how economic cycles work? hell do you know basic economics?

do you have any idea of how terribly propped up the australian economy has been for decades now? with literally nothing but mining to back it up? do you realize how terribly unproductive the general australian is relative to other highly developed nations? do you realize that the nanny state has made everyone think the government will always be able to give them handouts and have become quite comfortable in leeching rather than actually contributing in any meaningful way?

like i said, enjoy the ride. it's gonna be brutal.

>>11460966
dubs of truth.

>>11460992
Yeah also they want to kill all white men. Stay informed.

>>11458943
they forecast $2 petrol by christmas
you ready cuck?

and the gov gets 40c of each liter as fuel exise lmao
we're an avocado republic

>>11458935
based

>>11460993
sure thing peter schiff whatever you say. im getting dejavu talking about this in 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2016. You sound like an economist thats trying to sell books and dvds.

problem is you forgot to account for the fact we're a small nation surrounded by much larger nations that went to really shitty times (including ww2 era) while australia prospered.

>>11460971
china's economy is in trouble, they'll tap out soon

I think our gov decided to let them all come and work as much as they wanted to while their money was still worth something

nothing lasts forever

>>11460972
pretty sure Ive seen land on gumtree for far less, unless there's a catch in the fine print...

you're not gonna live in the city like a citycuck are you?

>>11461015
>im getting dejavu talking about this in 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2016
the train is late, it's still on the way though
ignore at your own peril

>>11461015
australia's prosperity ended in the early 2000s, since then we've been hanging onto chinese trade for dear life

we make nothing now
we dont even win at the olympics anymore
we're a joke
a JOKE
J O K E

I hope csw actually is satoshi, then australia can actually claim to have done something significant in the past 50 years

>>11461025
heres the thing, chinese, indian, and other ethnic investors are still "buying the blood" with this 6%, 10% fall, whatever the number is, i'll look it up later.

they're not buying 1 bedroom 50sqmeter apartments (thats not what we do), but they're buying houses, townhouses, luxury apartments in ideal areas. The auctions we didnt clear got cleared a month later.

i really, really need to get a job outside of the city somehow

currently living in newcastle and working in the coal industry, the housing market here probably wont get JUSTed but my future job prospects might

>>11461036
>australia's prosperity ended in the early 2000s

yeah haha only another year. or 2, or 10 till the australian economy collapses.... right?

i hope all that constant doom and negativity hasnt impacted you from being neutral when it comes to investing in anything.

hey lads the chinese cant get money out of the country but this cunt has anecdotes so ignore all that

plus he works in selling real estate so he hasnt got any intrinsic bias to lie

>>11461047
Why not become a swagman?

>>11461037
yes, until they run out of money, and then they'll be trapped underwater

are they buying entirely up front? or on loan?

>>11461054
pls no meme replies

>>11461050
heres food for thought, do the auction clearance rates account for second or 3rd round auctions? do they update their statistics when the home is finally sold? Do they account for offers after advertisement is pulled? I would look into that if i were you.


>>11461047
people seem to forget theres a cost to building a home which can range from 250k to 400k (we've done a few of these).

>>11461015
i truly and honestly hope you aren't larping and you actually believe we aren't in for a brutal recession soon. it would bring me great joy to see you get raped by the laws of economics. you deserve it, baby.

>>11461036
CSW? lol give me a break. like the typical aussie he's just looking to get something out of nothing.

>>11461049
it all depends what economic tricks they play to keep the illusion going
the global economy can collapse entirely at any moment, and came close a few times since 2008

the aussie economy is a hollow shell right now though

>>11461068
>heres food for thought, do the auction clearance rates account for second or 3rd round auctions? do they update their statistics when the home is finally sold? Do they account for offers after advertisement is pulled? I would look into that if i were you.

why woud i liook at that?

if they cant sell in the first instance then prices get reduced down, hence prices reduce, hence the correlation between clearance rates and price changes

you fucking retarded or what

>>11461068
>250k to 400k (we've done a few of these).
what a load of shit, real estate agents and contractors just blow up prices
if you asked them to value a avocado sandwich, they'll estimate its worth at $50

I can't wait for the 3d printed houses to send you price gouging FUCKS out of business

>>11461070
joking desu

>>11461090
i know mate ;)

JUST

>>11461059
50% is basically what you call upfront, ethnic families that buy a home together i would say 20% (loan involved, and a lot of times same families move in). Rest are couples getting a home, <15% of buyers are what you would call aussie.

>>11461077
you already sound like you dont know what you're talking about, most of the time prices dont get reduced on our books, unless the sellers are demanding a unreasonable price, more than what they actually paid.

>>11461097
FUCK

>>11461103
You sound like a spastic who legitimately doesnt understand how statistics work and that you keep trying to pray that your anecdotes can defeat huge data sets

If we are going down, will it be part of a global tank or will we go into recession relatively isolated? Where and what should I dump my cash into so it's insulated?

it's just a question of when, not if at this point.

gonna be beautiful.

>>11461112
you're just a troll spreading doom, your meme reaction images say a lot. you're gonna be screaming doom until retirement

>>11461120
yeah thats it im just spreading doom

not objective reality through statistical anlysis

reality is upsetting to the beta male

>>11461114
thats something im willing to admit, if EU, china, USA, canada, india go down. We will follow them, cant stop a global crisis of that magnitude

>>11461109
MY

>>11461114
since the australian economy isn't really fundamentally healthy and hasn't been for decades now, the global economy doesn't necessarily have to tank for australia to go through a recession. however, a global recession can definitely speed up the process and intensify the negatives.

if it's a global recession, your money won't really be safe unless you look into moving it into some sort of emerging economy that has economic growth high enough to insulate itself from the effects of what's happening in the world (not china, india, etc.).

if it's localized, and the US doesn't end up going through a recession, converting your money to USD would be a safe and easy bet.

>>11461136
SHIT

>>11461103
pretty much everyone who buys at these prices is gonna get burned, if they wait a few years there will be bargains

>>11461115
yep, landlord boomers jumping out of 2nd story mansions and getting rekt when they realise their property isn't a retirement fund

>>11461114
depends on the timing, trouble in america or china can easily plunge us into a world of hurt, or if people tap out here in mass, we'll enter our recession while the rest of the world ticks along for a while

dont forget we only have 1 month of fuel supplies in AU, after that, the trucks stop running and the shelves go empty within 3 days
where does our petrol come from again?

>>11461138
>since the australian economy isn't really fundamentally healthy and hasn't been for decades now

yet median wage is 65k a year or more.
People still figured out how to profit in those years.

having this negative mindset will prevent you from doing anything worthwhile.

>>11461151
UP

>>11461153
>dont forget we only have 1 month of fuel supplies in AU

>>11461158
oh fuck i dont have this one, do you have the earlier data for it? (pre-2018 that is)

>>11461153
so you're saying in a few years we'll have really cheap houses? Thats a long enough time frame that these posts will be forgotten and wont matter.

screenshot your own posts and mine, I'm telling you this won't happen.

>>11461154
that median wage was built on a foundation that literally doesn't exist. are you thick?

it's called having a realistic mindset. keep believing that australia is somehow exempt from economic laws. you dirty real estate crooks deserve to lose everything.

>>11461154
it's like trying to watch one last movie on the titanic before it sinks, just get in the fucking lifeboat bruce

the economy could've gotten super wrecked in 2008, and it will happen, cause now the entire world has more debt, has more fragile economies, less productivity and has not changed direction

get ready for the GREATEST DEPRESSION
could begin tomorrow, could begin in 10 years, every day brings us closer to the tipping point

>>11461163
Nah lad

>>11461158
also how many loans of a banks portfolio in australia are securitized? i looked at cbas balance sheet, income statement ect (in 2016) and they only had like 8 billion worth of securitized mortgages, and it didnt state where they came from, could be left over from shitty mortgage bonds from the US

>>11461173
this spastic cunt and his negative mindset shit, like he took a tony robbins course and read the secret a few times

whats negative about saving your money to buy at the bottom? this retard thinks if you dont pray and plead for prices to go up youre a bad goy

>>11461186
Im not sure on that. I know the big 4 carry 80% of aussie mortgages, somewhat related.

WHEN THE ROAD GETS DARK
AND YOU CAN NO LONGER SEE

>>11461173

>that median wage was built on a foundation that literally doesn't exist. are you thick?

i worked as an engineer for 70k a year, everyone in that company made decent money including the cleaners. I moved into realestate for more money.

>>11461176
>could begin tomorrow, could begin in 10 years, every day brings us closer to the tipping point

1 day and 10 years is a really big margin of error

>>11461188
you're more than welcome to wait for the "bottom" but are you really expecting a growing population to do the same thing you're doing?

you can buy cheap houses right now 60-100km from melbourne and Sydney no ones stopping you

>>11461197
yeah and its about 60-65% of their asset portfolio. a slight dip in that and we are in for one hell of a JUSTing

>>11461188
>this retard thinks if you dont pray and plead for prices to go up youre a bad goy
truly encapsulates the mindset of the typical aussie today. 'but muh gubment will make the big bad economic laws go away'.

truly a nanny state of the likes we've never seen..

>>11461198
JUST LET MY LOVE THROW A SPARK
AND HAVE A LITTLE FAITH IN ME

>>11461170
I'm telling you it will
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOylHZvpaIQ

>>11461210
>all of this debt fuelling growth

what could possibly go wrong?

>>11461201
>you're more than welcome to wait for the "bottom" but are you really expecting a growing population to do the same thing you're doing?

I dont expect 100,000,000 migrants to have either 1) $1,000,000 AUD cash, or 2) access to $1,000,000 through a lender

I don't care how many people you bring to the country if they dont have capacity to push prices up

People dont inherently = Price pressure

>>11461201
so your argument basically boils down to 'it looks good on the surface, so everything is fine'.

nice.

>>11461215
Hey bro heard you got some cheap credit to grow your tshirt and or gym and or craftbeer and or real estate agency and or property development company! thats awesome!

oh shit interest rates are going up now? 3 more rate rises in the fed expected before the year ends? more in 2019?

bro how you gonna afford your corporate debt when you were just barely breaking even with almost zero interest rates? bro are you there? BRO

>>11461216
migration of any kind pushes up house prices, even if the immigrants are poor. harry dent (whos also a doomsayer) covered this and that was the only thing he was correct about. You really dont know enough about this topic.

>>11461201
doesn't matter, you won't survive if you dont start right now

>>11461224
>migration of any kind pushes up house prices, even if the immigrants are poor

HOW ARE THEY CAPABLE OF BIDDING UP PRICES WITHOUT ACCESS TO CAPITAL? PLEASE ELUCIDATE ME PAJEET

anyone else get a doom hard on?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2UnObo-QMM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eku3cPK1IFM

>>11461228
just the fact there's loads of migrants means they gotta stay somewhere
if they dont buy, they're still going to be paying a landlord for a roof over their heads, and helps squeeze housing supply which pushes prices up

and the gov wont stop it, because they dont want their own houses to lose their paper value

>>11461228
every pool of immigrants has a % of people that have the means. Introduce a pool large enough and that % is much larger. i think the government planned on introducing 190,000 immigrants this year majority going to sydney and melbourne. I may have not said everything i know (yet), but i think you can understand my mindset as to why im not worried.

>>11461251
1. they can rent
2. that doesnt mean prices will go up, it means they can bid, and bid beneath the previous median, and bring prices down
3. they physically do not have access to capital to bid prices up, this is not something that can be changed by any other act of man or god

>>11461251
pretty much, indians and chinese are not only first to grab homes at auction they're first to grab rentals too when they actually show up.

>>11461258
1. other people will buy houses solely to rent them out

they dont bid the prices up directly, it's indirect by squeezing the supply/demand equation

>>11457787
100% agree fuck those stupid fucking chinks. They probably don't give a fuck though. They'll pay a premium to get their cash out of china.

>>11461237

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqBR02HBh6w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgNAqG3u73g

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7MX2uJAZc4

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5407633/American-economist-predicts-Australian-market-crash.html

https://www.news.com.au/finance/superannuation/australian-dollar-could-drop-to-40-us-cents-if-we-dont-stop-our-lavish-spending/news-story/431ffffa9eab5c1fe27cc2b3cf6f89b8

ARE YOU READY?

>>11461272
they do.

>>11461268
1. we have an oversupply of properties

2. we know from research that its the availability of credit that drives prices, not a rush of poorfags working in cleaning and delivery driving.

>>11461282

>>11461285
what sort of property, off the plan 1 bedroom apartments are abundant. We dont touch those.

>>11461296
lmao i was waiting for someone to make a response like that.

>>11461272
the chinese are smart, they're buying up real stuff with paper money while it's still worth something

the dumb ones are the aussies who sold their country off, cause now you got a load of paper that won't be worth as much for very long

>>11461285
1. yep, and as more apartments get finished over the next few years, that is going to release more pressure

also there are many properties that have been kept off the market
https://www.baka.com.au/politics/federal/census-snapshot-one-million-homes-left-empty-across-australia-20170717-gxcpiw.html

>>11461296
not an argument
you'll be eating vegemite with wichety grubs if you don't prepare now

>>11461325
>Higher levels of unoccupied stock provide some credence to the notion that some properties are being purchased without an intention to tenant them.

these people have enough money that they dont care about putting tenants in them. What are the chances these will go back on the market if they're not renting them already?

who else watches this comfy housing bubble kino
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKWDscRjYFTD1KHsmow4-bQ/videos

>>11461308
The first thing to go in your scenario after fiat is real estate.

>>11461344
I have heard of hedge funds in america buying up cheap houses simply to keep properties off the markets to boost their asset prices on paper

I would not be surprised if it's being done here, but I have no proof

as for rich owners with multiple houses, they will when they get desperate, give it a few years as the price of everything keeps inching upwards

I recommend you buy the bush tucker field guide by les hiddins
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1367886.Bush_Tucker_Field_Guide

>>11461386
at least you can be a rent seeking parasite with some real estate

>>11461379
never heard of the guy
but I love hearing aussie economic doom, since they won't admit it on npc tv

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPulERW2FIU

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

>>11461379
i remember this guy years ago talking about which postcodes would default, only thing changed since then is his greying hair.

>>11461410
hope you get used to eating wichety grubs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBJVqB9wG98

>>11461491
ill stick to eating roo and vegemite

You know the thing about a crash is that it is temporary

The housing market may crash, the stock market may follow, other investments may rise/fall.

But all this shit will blow over in a few years and we'll be exactly back to where we were before the crash anyway.

I don't know why people keep forgetting this. The US housing crisis was a global disaster, but that shit ended after a few years. An Australian housing crisis wouldn't last forever either.

And I bet most of you will end up losing more money moving assets around trying to beat the market rather than just holding a diverse portfolio and chilling.

>>11461593
the great depression was temporary too

>>11461608
Even if we say a crash in Australia was great depression tier and lasted a decade, who cares? It will just last a decade.

And then what? It grows back up. If you have a properly diverse portfolio then you're not going to get massively hit in any one area. Better still if there is a massive depression (and if you have cash reserves, which you should) you can buy up more investments at the depressions peak.

I suspect even if we had a depression it would be short lived because even retail investors are smart enough now to know that a depression is the perfect chance to buy assets.

>>11461593
only issue is that the australian economy, unlike the US, is not even close to being as robust and there's no real guarantee that 'we'll be exactly back to where we were before the crash'.

what does the aussie economy really have apart from mining, which is an industry that is heavily reliant on global economic cycles?

>>11461544
you must've sucked off quite a few people to get that real estate job. your understanding of economics is not even up to par with a high schooler.

>>11461652
go back to listening to doomsayers on youtube, by the time this fantasy collapse happens ill be retired, and i'll come out of retirement when it blows over after 18 months

>>11461652
>only issue is that the australian economy, unlike the US, is not even close to being as robust and there's no real guarantee that 'we'll be exactly back to where we were before the crash'.
Productivity is up, wages are (finally) increasing, unemployment is at a low and because we have such a massive dividend culture a lot of the ASX200 (its about 110 companies) have large cash reserves for paying out dividends (which they could stop paying to use the cash reserves to suffer through economic issues). These are all factors that show that companies in Australia are doing well for themselves and are fairly robust.

Additionally we are not nearly as reliant on mining as we used to be, it makes up 6% of our total GDP. Most of our GDP is coming from the service industry and we are more diversified than we were during 2008.

>there's no real guarantee that 'we'll be exactly back to where we were before the crash'.
Yeah, there really is, because the only way for the opposite to be true would be that Australia never recovers, which means either the entire country collapses permanently and we create Mad Max or we stagnate forever which means no industries can recover which would be literally impossible.

Australia is a giant machine and its weathered far worse times than a slightly overdone housing market, a shit political scene and China/US bitching at each other. People are too scared of what will happen tomorrow or in the short/medium term and don't focus on the long. This is exactly why every type of investor except value investors change routines all the time, they cant think long term and cant see the benefit of just holding your ground.

>>11461647
I think it'll be a lot longer for australia since it produces nothing and still has that "we're number #1' attitude, even as the country has been swirling around the drain the past decade as living standards drop

a decade with you avocado eating retards? no thanks, I'd rather join the kiwis, at least they can make films

>>11461647
an economy doesn't just recover on it's own and go on like nothing happened unless there are factors that support growth. if australia goes through a great depression, nothing short of an entire overhaul of government policy towards the economy and a change in thinking is going to bring it out of the slump. good luck explaining to the leeches in this country that the free handouts they've been used to getting for decades will cease. the vast majority of people here are dumbcunts who think that australia is the greatest country on earth because the government has an infinite supply of money as they've been led to believe that the local economy is strong, when in reality it's so frail that one single big event can lead to it tumbling down exponentially.

>I suspect even if we had a depression it would be short lived because even retail investors are smart enough now to know that a depression is the perfect chance to buy assets.

yeah because when a great depression happens the first thing people do is use their money to buy assets instead of making sure they have enough to feed their families and keep the water running.

you've never seen what a depression is truly like as the government here has been pushing it away for decades. you're going to be in for an amazing reality check when this shit comes crashing down. good riddance, you faggots in your ivory towers need to be eliminated.

>>11461697
>drain the past decade as living standards drop
On what possible metric are you pretending this is true? Australia has literally only improved since 2008 in every metric.

I know you all have PTSD from 2008 but if you paid attention: it came to an end. People who held their investments in a diversified portfolio were at the same spot pre-2008 as they were once markets recovered. That's how every single depression has ever ended.

>>11461695
the people screaming doom are just salty for not buying the bottom, and are hoping for a second chance of buying homes for 200k (lol). They'll be waiting for the rest of their lives

>>11461697
Kiwis are even bigger faggots and even more sold out to the chinks.

>>11461702
>an economy doesn't just recover on it's own and go on like nothing happened unless there are factors that support growth
Which Australia has. Wont even bother reading the rest.

You're in denial and there is no reason to talk to someone who cant be emotionally impartial. You're never going to make a good investor.

>>11461695
>>11461677
t. NPCs

>Yeah, there really is, because the only way for the opposite to be true would be that Australia never recovers
get a load of this brainlet
even the USA has not fully recovered from the GFC, if you look at the DJI or S&P, everything in america should be fine when it's clearly not

>>11460982
Liberal democrats has better drug policy without the aids melbournian ideology

>>11461712
>if you look at the DJI or S&P, everything in america should be fine when it's clearly not
Except everything is fine, and again if you had held your assets instead of trying to 'beat the market' you would be in a better position today than you would have been at any period of time pre-2008.

>>11461706
food servings are smaller post GFC, cost of living going up, do you live in the real world mate?

>>11461708
at least they made a law to limit how much foreigners can buy
at least their strawberries are safe to eat
at least maoris have cool art

you can go eat wichety grubs

>>11460258

A unified racially aware Australia could make South East Asia tremble if we were given the hardware by America.

America would have to do the Chinese in if we were going to survive though.

>>11461677
spoken like a true leech.

>>11461695
so you're saying that the service industry alone is enough to keep this giant shitshow propped up if the demand for mining goes down the shitter? ok mate. you keep thinking that.

after all, australia is known world over for its world class service industries right?

>>11461697
straya cunt. we're number #1!!!! love it or leave it cunt!!! sure everything is incredibly expensive here and taxed through the roof and we've been surviving on digging shit out of the ground and sending it abroad, sure we have shit tier universities that don't hold a candle to any university abroad worth its salt, sure our manufacturing sector is non-existent, sure the living standards in reality are absolutely horrible for the vast majority of people who have to literally sell their souls and slave away just to put food on their plates and have the utilities paid off, sure the people here think that investment in the internet infrastructure is a scam and we should pay extremely inflated prices for terrible service, but we're number #1 cunt.

>the absolute state of this shithole

>>11461722
>at least their strawberries are safe to eat
yeah but we invented the pavlova

>>11461711
keep believing that. you have no fucking clue what you're in for.

sure mate, i'm not a good investor. surely you know more than the banks here who are themselves gearing up for economic collapse themselves? you just keep eating your smashed avocado on toast and drinking your onions lattes. you'll be shitting your trousers soon enough.

>>11461720
they have already decided what the outcome they want, and they'll look for evidence to support their answer no matter what, i use to be infected by the doom virus until i started working in the industry

>>11461720
>Except everything is fine
no
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA54cWOgino

>>11461739
we were prepared for last financial crisis and we will be even better prepared this time
only shit hole nations like america keep going on like nothing will happen
stfu

>>11461729
pavlova is kiwi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlova_(food)

another sign of kiwi supremacy

>>11461750
spoken like a true dumbcunt.

you've never witnessed what a depression is like. if america is a shithole, this place is a couple tiers below that.

i guess an indication of companies leaving australia because its far too expensive even compared to traditionally expensive places like europe is an indication of australia being prepared?

sure mate. enjoy that shit sandwich you'll be eating. you have no fucking clue. it's gonna be beautiful to see you leeches lining up for the dole only to be turned back because there's no more dole to give out. leeching cunts.

>>11461760
when you're in your rocking chair and you're surrounded by prosperity i hope you remember that post and how you wasted your life thinking "its coming any day now"

>>11461767
oh i'm well prepared, don't you worry. having a realistic view of economies helps with that.

you just remember all the shit we told you when you're trying to scrape up enough change to get a jar of vegemite.

i mean after all, we are exempt from the laws of economics because we're #1 right? straya cunt! fuck yeah

>>11461782
oh you're a prepper, makes sense now.

>>11461787
>believing that being ready for a natural cycle in the economy that has been long postponed and backed by facts and data is a meme

>the absolute fucking state

>>11461727
we didn't even invent lamingtons
https://www.tourradar.com/days-to-come/new-zealand-inventions/

aussie inventions dried up in the 90s and I doubt the next gen could invent anything
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Australian_inventions

>>11461740
you'll all get the doom virus soon enough
you are not immune
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy3GtedPn6Q

>>11461795
oi we don't have time for your invention shit you cunt! we're too busy deciding if the pedestrian crossing lights are misogynist and are offending the landwhales here!

straya mate!

Kiwis are awesome. i always ask them why they came here and the only reason they give me is more jobs. they pretty much see that its complete shit otherwise.

>>11461750
china practically saved us in 2008

now they're about to have their own economic issues and dont need our rocks as much as before, they're not really interested in sending student down here to study since our degrees are worthless
https://www.baka.com.au/world/chinese-students-question-australian-education-sending-chills-through-industry-20170919-gykfgi.html

australia is prepared for nothing
1 month of fuel and the country is DONE
all it takes is for something to happen in the ME, and we're

can't even get the NBN working properly
can't even build water pipelines for rural farming
can't even make a tv show worth watching

>>11461833
ah shit, I shoulda proof read that
>and we're D O N E

>>11461818
lmao

>>11461833
the idiots in this shithole just use HECS as yet another reason for why this dump is the greatest country on earth..

not realizing that the incredibly high taxes can easily afford to provide subsidized education, and still make a profit, if the universities themselves are a few levels below shit tier.

don't get me fucking started on the universities here. no wonder we're breeding a bunch of mouth breathing, effeminate faggots whose biggest concern in life is whether the s o y milk in their lattes is non-GMO or not..

The human race are like rodents. Populating too fast for society to keep up.

Housing will never crash until we can make a house within a day.

>>11461850
>Housing will never crash until we can make a house within a day.
behold
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH-zpnoNLEU

I will NEVER EVER fucking pay 500k to a boomer for an apartment when I can get this and print it in the shape of pepe in a day

>>11461846
they call it 'HELP' now
and they gonna need it

>>11460911
checked
Also, that would be amazing

oi

who here

remembers when the big 4 had an average of 1.4% capital requirement between them?