/biz/ - Business & Finance

In my opinion, buying housing and stocks right now are like buying BTC at 13-15k. If you look at most market charts it looks to be following the meme chart almost identically, same trajectory as BTC, and if we follow said charts then it looks like there is one or maybe even two final parabolic moves upwards to go. Most professionals are looking at early 2020 for the next recession, (could be sooner, obviously) and I'd have to agree. I'm no fortune teller and don't know how BTC will react during the recession as it will be the first time in history the existence of BTC coincides with an active recession, but if you can preserve your wealth for at least another year or two, you can probably get a crazy deal on a property.

>>11102306
whats the risk buying with a mortgage? if it goes down, you refinance

>>11102306
yes especially since house like that is worth

>>11102334
about $200k which is a scam

>>11102341
200k for OP's pic? fuck sakes, try 350 where I'm from. feels like im in limbo till this shit crashes to hell and then I can actually move some money around.

>>11102306
Subprime loans are back in town!!!!!!!!

>>11102353
thats fucked. where im at a house like that goes for 200k. its part of the reason why i still havent bought a house everything is insanely overpriced. even empty 5 acre parcels of land in prime neighborhoods are costing like 10-15k

>>11102329
If the mortgage rate goes down, you can refinance.
If the value of the house goes down, you're up a creek.

>>11102370
incorrect

>If you are underwater on your home mortgage, contact your lender. Some banks run their own in-house refinance programs to help borrowers in this situation. Many attempt to qualify homeowners for the president's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). If your loan is owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, your lender must assess your eligibility for the program, according to the Making Home Affordable website. While many major--and smaller size--banks do participate in HARP and other Making Home Affordable schemes, they do not have to. Effective Sept. 7, 2010, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) offers a "short refinance opportunity" for eligible underwater homeowners, HUD reports. The FHA as well as the Department of Veterans Affairs offer other options that might work for underwater borrowers presently invested in one of their products.

>>11102341
>>11102353
>he thinks thats a lot
>mfw living in a neighbor attached, sub 1000sq ft, single bathroom townhouse thats worth 430k right now
god bless california

>>11102439
LOL even worse

>>11102439

California is a fucking hell hole. Pic related

>>11102306
buying anything except crypto is like buying IOTA at $5

>>11102509
>$3.1 million
HOLY FUCK
that has to be fake

>>11102306
>tfw my piece of shit apartment in Queens NY is worth 1 mill

>>11102566

I wish it was

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/09/16/bay-areas-runaway-housing-market-is-pumping-the-brakes-will-the-lull-last/

>>11102400
They're just trying to prevent people underwater from walking away, because they lose money when people walk away. All of those programs require approval from the organization whether or not you qualify.

>While many major--and smaller size--banks do participate in HARP and other Making Home Affordable schemes, they do not have to.
It's literally in your own post.

>>11102612
yeah, but who _doesn't_ have a fanny mae mortgage? its literally the defacto mortgage.

ive refinanced a few times, even a year before i sold my last place.

>>11102608

>>11102306
How do people live in those

>>11102306
Maybe, but you get to live in it while you're bagholding.

lol no btc lost nearly 70% of its value

even if this was the absolute top, real estate "crashes" are like 30-50%

>>11102439
Hahaha maybe in a shitty part of california. Condos in prime areas are 1mil+

>>11102625
Did you refinance because you were underwater using one of these programs? It's a completely different scenario. If you didn't, you know nothing about getting out of an underwater mortgage. And if you did, you're a baka for buying in a depreciating area.
Furthermore, even if you do refinance the mortgage, you're still owing way more than the underlying asset is worth. You might be able to refi into lower rates (lower than the recent 3.5-4.5%? Unlikely), but the bank's not going to knock off a couple grand from your debt just because you made a bad decision or got hit but a hurricane - they'll just give you a bit longer to pay it off. You'll still owe more than it's worth, and you'll still be up that creek.
If the value of the house goes down now, you're up a creek. That's just how it works.

>>11102718
I bought a condo at 175. I owed 150 Its now worth 99. Told them I had nothing and couldn't sell it and I was just going to stop paying and go bankrupt, They refinanced me to 120. I then sold at 99 months later.

I 100% know about being underwater in home loans. I did it before in 2009 as well.

>>11102306
Maybe

>>11102439
>mfw 2 3bedroom on 1000sqft land and equiv $600k usd

>>11102754

>>11102765
doesn't effect credit rating either. if you are underwater its worth it to call. credit cards it works too.

I'm a contractor, I work with flooring, tile, some carpentry.

When I look at a home I consider the cost of materials, cost of labor, any permits, and salespeople that get a cut.

A typical home with $400k of expenses is selling for like $600k to $700k. This type of markup cannot last! It's only like this during great financial markets where couples are making a ton of money and don't give a fuck about potential income changes in the future.

This cannot last. I'm not expecting another 08, but something tragic is coming in the next 2 years.

Since 1900 there has never been an economic growth period that has lasted more than 14 years.

When you consider student loan debt, car debt, and government debt, a reckoning has to be coming.

>>11102369

Where I live a 3br/2ba piece of shit house is going for $220k.

>>11102306
no, more like 12k (pre booble burst), soon anon, soon the whole US market will collapse, buy gold, sell crypto.

>>11102439
Move to the central valley faggot. Much cheaper living here, and the air isn't more or less polluted than la. Northern california also has decent properties, but the crowds that live there suck.

They just built a bunch of condos right next to the dump here and they're going for 300k. I wouldn't feel comfortable buying a house at this time.

>>11102509
>$3.1 million for a mediocre suburban single story home
>Meanwhile California has the highest rate of poverty in the country

Yeah totally sustainable guys. No housing bubble here.

Fuck California and all the retards who think moving there is a good idea. I hope you all go underwater on your mortgages you disgusting animals.

>t. native Californian who watched the entire state go to complete shit in 30 years time

It needs to break off and sink into the ocean

>26
>Buy a house in a major city with incredibly low unemployment rate (and not at risk for flooding, coastal or otherwise)
>Right size for wife and myself
>Only a few miles from downtown
>Great neighborhoods
>Walkable
>Friendly neighbors
>Bought at 180k
>Already at 230k two years later

Feels good.

>>11102867
>buy gold, sell crypto
Why would you not sell gold and buy crypto?
Gold is borderline useless and more complicated than btc. As buying shitcoins gets easier more people are going to flock to this if they think it can save them.

>>11103227
No. That would send more of your refugees to Utah.
We need to first ban thirdworlders back to shitifornia THEN sink it.

>>11103255
Timing is everything. Nice job.

>Tfw watch this realtor/landlord guy on youtube, he's very optimistic and has some good insights

>says buy a 300k house with a 45k income, just put 50k down and your payment will be 1600/month

>45k
>300k house

if this is the mindset of the average californian than we're fucked

>>11103264
Because bitcoins are a scam. pure specularion

>>11103282
It does feel like we got in at the right time, time will tell. Things could tank in a big way over the next few years, but we don't plan on moving for at least 7-10 years, if not longer.

Used to live in Seattle, landlady bought her house in the 80s for sub 100k, worth something like 1.75 million now.

>>11103302
Sounds like gold and every other "investment" average people make.
Protip: much of the economy and life in general is a scam. You just have to play well.

>>11103316
dumb cunt, if she invested into Microsoft instead she'd be up 24million over 1.75million it's worth now.

>>11103282
>if this is the mindset of the average californian then we're fucked

Believe me, we are fucked. That is the average mindset. People think that the only direction housing can go is up. It reminds me of all the normies jumping into bitcoin in December, on a slower, more massive scale. Almost like 2008 all over again. People in California are being forced to buy houses in the fucking ghetto, neighborhoods you are likely to get shot stabbed or raped in if you walk outside at night. Almost the entire population is priced out of the housing market, and it's not going to end well.

>>11102439
Just fucking stay put pls.

>>11103334
Yeah, but she can't live in Microsoft stock.

Plus, hindsight is 20/20. There are companies you're not investing in now that will be worth insane amounts in 30-40 years. Somebody on some holoboard will be like, "lul, if you'd invested in Wergstrom's Dick Sticks in 2019 you'd be rich by now"

>>11103385
right, and even if it a was 50% of that, 50k saved for rent and 50k invested she still would've been up 12million. woooooooooo, people complaining about property values exploding don't see that the stock market is the real winner.

>>11103227
It's crazy to me how the housing situation is California seems so isolated. From what I've seen the prices and outlook in the midwest and Texas are amazing. Not sure about east coast

>>11103408

I dunno man, she was an old hippy. She seemed pretty content with having her house paid off, people paying to rent her basement and attic all while living in the heart of Seattle.

It's not always about being big huge rich.

>>11103361
nah

>>11103434
yes, but i'm relating this to the mentality that people who bought in the 80's suddenly reaped such a huge reward when the reality is that people have been getting far better returns from the stock market then the property markets. how do you think people are affording these houses? because the gains from the stock market have exceeded the gains from the property markets by a huge margin.

>>11103385

Also there were a ton of Microsoft copycats during and before the dot com boom that went totally bust. Basically the shitcoins of the tech industry

My attitude is this.

>THE HOUSE YOU LIVE IN IS NOT AN INVESTMENT

>any other house you own is an investment

>>11103552
Yeah and having a house to live in is better than sleeping in your car. But sleeping in your car is better than not having extra money every month.
I can't afford a house the way I'd like to until I'm making 80k minimum. Preferably 100k salary.

>>11102306
If you're buying a house as an investment property, I would say that right now at the tail end of the current business cycle would probably be bad timing. If you're buying a house to actually live in it locking in a low interest rate would probably save more money in the long run than waiting around hoping for a correction and paying rent in the meanwhile.

>>11102439
Bought in Washington DC about a year ago. 900 SF condo for... 575k. WTF

>>11103633
>paying rent in the meanwhile.
Or you can sleep in your car and keep saving.

Paying rent to save for a house is stupid because the mortgage interest is like rent. If you're wasting money on rent and want a house you may as well just waste the money on interest.

>>11103669
woops
Didn't know what thing stayed on.

>>11102830
but will the dollar be a safe haven like last time?

>>11103665
How much is it worth now? Better bail and let some other goy hold your bags.

>>11102306
Depends on where you live. Most major cities are in a huge bubble that is getting ready to pop. Just wait a while.

>>11102353
Where I'm from that's pushing $400K easy.

>building a 2400sqft (main floor) 5 bedroom 3 1/2 bath bungalow with fully developed basement and 4 car garage on an acre of ocean access land in close proximity to all the amenities for $450k leaf bucks (about $350k usd) including cost of land.

Feels pretty good lads.

>>11103905
probably can get some pretty cheap ocean front property in the carolinas

>>11103778
Depending on location, in Australia you'd be easily looking at 6-700k.
In some of the Asian-heavy areas, you'd be looking at well over a million.

>>11102306
bitcoin will be up 5x+ from 20k in 2020

houses will be down 50% by 2020

>>11103931
Kek, you couldn't pay me to live in the US. It's in Nova Scotia btw.

>>11103931
Enjoy the hurricanes.

>>11102306
As an investment? Yeah, probably. For yourself, assuming you don't own one? Fuck no. If you can finance a house now, do it. There's no way we'll see interest rates this low ever again in our children's lifetime.

>>11104254
woosh

>>11103950
>BECAUSE I SAY SO

>>11102326
FPBP. I feel this also, it does hurt just sitting on the sidelines stacking up cash. I’m at the point in my life I’m ready to buy a house, but I’ll keep renting this apartment for another 1-3 years. I have learned so much about market cycles just from following crypto the last year and a half.

>>11102509
just greedy ass kike boomers JUSTed nothing to see here move alone

>>11102353
from where im from, a new house like that is 300k with a whopping $10,000/yr property tax (buffalo, ny (outer suburbs)).

in the rich neighborhoods, old ww2 era shitboxes with 1200sqft on .25 acre lot is 200k+ with a $5k/yr property taxes.

The shylocks in Buffalo saw a hot market and already reassessed home values increasing taxes by upwards of 50%-100%.

I cant wait for the fucking crash. I have no clue who the fuck is buying and do these people even care about finances or the quality of these panel board/drywall-less shit boxes theyre buying at a premium.

>>11103227
It was the shitskins who ruined California.
Most cities in the Bay and L.A. area are like 80% nonwhite. Housing prices are determined by supply and demand.
Imagine what would happen to housing prices if 60% of the population (the invasive foreigners) were thrown out.
>pic related

>>11104624
>invasion foreigners
Kek. That’s the future of the world, very unfortunate but this is a tide that can only be slowed, never stopped.

>>11104685
We've stopped before, Operation Wetback kicked out 30m illegal aliens.

>>11104685
Yea there was also a huge deportation in the early 20s that kicked out millions.

>>11102688
Nope, national average maybe. Houston, Vancouver and LA are looking at 80% next year

>>11103606
I make 80. Cant afford shiet.

People who think $300k for a house is expensive are some poor fucks. Literally you only need to make around $60-70k a year to land that. With salaries going up it's only going to get easier and easier for the next decade.

Prices definitely won't increase rapidly like the past 2 years, but there won't be any unexpected crash like 2008. Laws are very strict now a days and loans aren't being handed out like crazy.

I work in construction and material costs have been on the rise for the past year due to so much demand to build houses. Labor it self has been on the rise but we're reaching a point where things will start to level out, which is a good thing.

Any major metro area homes are easily going to be 300-400k. Land next to a major city is a huge expense due to the demand Probably around 100-200k. Then when you add materials and labor on top of that you will come out with a home that is worth atleast 400k.

Land in major metros is becoming non-existent. It won't be until another 5-10 years before we see a housing crash.

>>11105221
This post reeks of December 2017 people saying bitcoin would be 100k in 6 months kek. Construction is a good career for you.

>>11102326
Except a house serves a purpose beyond making a profit in fiat...