/biz/ - Business & Finance

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

> The organization set up to manage such a system could, presumably, make up a list of people who had seriously violated the NAP (Non-aggression Principle), but who would not see justice in our courts due to the fact that their actions were done at the behest of the government. Associated with each name would be a dollar figure, the total amount of money the organization has received as a contribution, which is the amount they would give for correctly "predicting" the person's death, presumably naming the exact date. "Guessers" would formulate their "guess" into a file, encrypt it with the organization's public key, then transmit it to the organization, possibly using methods as untraceable as putting a floppy disk in an envelope and tossing it into a mailbox, but more likely either a cascade of encrypted anonymous remailers, or possibly public-access Internet locations, such as terminals at a local library, etc.

> In order to prevent such a system from becoming simply a random unpaid lottery, in which people can randomly guess a name and date (hoping that lightning would strike, as it occasionally does), it would be necessary to deter such random guessing by requiring the "guessers" to include with their "guess" encrypted and untraceable "digital cash," in an amount sufficiently high to make random guessing impractical.

>>10493715
This will be a 2 year long bear market and stay down forever.

The top wallets hold WAY too much coins to even remotely reclaim the possibility of cashing out at higher prices we see today.

Normie money pumped in December/Jan and they all got burned, never to return.

Maybe in 4-8 years when zoomers are old enough we can dump our bags on them.

>>10493801

Crypto is absolutely here to stay. We will see a much larger bubble and higher ATH's than ever before. But the timeline here is going to be anywhere between 1-10 years, we may have micro bubbles, but the chance of "making it" is significantly lower than playing stocks/options. Could talk endless about why I am convinced about it, but I'll let time be the judge (or AMA, been here since 2011). A tidbit of relevance from the Crypto-anarchist manifesto:

> The State will of course try to slow or halt the spread of this technology, citing national security concerns, use of the technology by drug dealers and tax evaders, and fears of societal disintegration. Many of these concerns will be valid; crypto anarchy will allow national secrets to be trade freely and will allow illicit and stolen materials to be traded. An anonymous computerized market will even make possible abhorrent markets for assassinations and extortion. Various criminal and foreign elements will be active users of CryptoNet. But this will not halt the spread of crypto anarchy.

The current stage of crypto.
Don't listen to hedge funds and billion dollar VC's
They are market makers, making money of retail traders.
Apply some basic logic and reasoning and look at the current state of things.
It has not been looking good for more than half a year, it won't significantly improve in the next 6 months either.

> pic related: 1999, read it all.

My advice: get out, start a business. Make money, DCA yourself back in crypto over the next decade.

how does it work without oracles?

>>10493874
hold up, whats the name of the book in the pic?

>>10493906

Augur holders report on events with their staked REP tokens and get a % over their REP.
Outcome of any event can be disputed by REP holders staking their REP for disputes.
If dispute is successful then these holders get a % of REP as well.

>>10493907

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/82256.The_Sovereign_Individual

>>10493923
>Augur holders report on events with their staked REP tokens and get a % over their REP.
>Outcome of any event can be disputed by REP holders staking their REP for disputes.
>If dispute is successful then these holders get a % of REP as well.
can't a bunch of retards just collaborate to fuck the system then?

>>10493924

Quick Google-fu search:

> https://augur.stackexchange.com/questions/212/how-augur-can-deal-with-sybil-attack

> Augur's cryptoeconomics are designed to not depend in any way on number of users. All of the economic models work out the same way whether there is a single large actor holding a lot of REP or a billion small actors holding the same amount of REP. This is an intentional design decision to deal with the fact that Sybil attacks are a real issue in pseudo-anonymous environments.

>>10493930
doesn't address my point

>>10493935

It does, what you asked is basically a sybil attack.

>>10493938
your quote discusses many vs few actors, total tokens being the same
I'm asking about collaboration

>>10493945

It is still within the bound of a sybil attack which is defeated by imposing economic variables into the system which either A) make sybil attacks extremely costly, beyond the payout ever being worth it B) Add a huge incentive to anyone disputing these "retard collaborators". As more "retard collaborators" enter, brainlets will keep tipping the scale for profits until retards run out of money. Brainlets can keep adding money because the incentive will keep increasing with every retard collaborating.

Off the top of my hat, Augur does both and more.

>>10493923
ah thanks

>>10493715
https://youtu.be/WsdMST-4pok
https://youtu.be/wkjB4fFO7zc
This guy barely got on the Dark Web(which just requires a Tor Browser and VPN) and discovered a huge assassination site simply by accident. Imagine how easy it would be for someone who actually had a goal.

>>10494029
>discovered a huge assassination site simply by accident
it's just some nigger larping

>>10494006
look into the Wunderkind who built Augur's minimal viable product and find out what he is into these days

>>10494035
He literally shows footage of the site and goes around checking the prices and policies. He's not smart enough to fabricate it.

>>10494036
>Wunderkind

Both him and Amir Taaki are some unsung hero's of Crypto.
Real Cypherpunks write code and do stuff, not get into stupid twitter fights.

Thanks for reminding me of Wunderkind, hadn't heard that name in a loooong ass time.

>>10494109
who is wunderkind, cant quite find it

>>10494151

That's not his actual handle, he was being hyped as the lord himself when coding Augur though.
The complexity of Augurs contract is beyond explanation (to me).

I only remember him next to Amir for some reason, gimme some time to dig up his name.

pretty smart, this means people will no longer seek positions of power that much, as they're likely going to be killed. What's going to happen is people are going to mind more of their own business, and not interfere in that of others. Most humans become very corrupt when they rise in government. So what's going to happen is we're going to create a better tool to govern us, a computer. computers will govern us, decentralized smart computeres, artificial intelligence. The concept of humans governing over another will be seen as completely immoral. We have always created tools to help us solve problems we can't do properly ourselves. Well, humanity can't govern itself properly. So computers will. Eventually we will merge with computers and good will triumph over evil and we fill fix those things in this universe what god seems to have forgotten. hail lucifer

>>10494177
they are not worthy anon, please, I don't want /biz/ anywhere near my futarchy

>>10494199
That's rude, I think I found his name though so ya

>>10494151

https://github.com/zack-bitcoin?page=1&tab=repositories

> 1,715 contributions in the last year

>>10494199

Brainlets won't get the significance of these programmers anyways, don't fear them.

>>10494212
nothing personal anon
>>10494222
trips confirm, I feel at ease

>>10494036
>and find out what he is into these days
what's he into?

>>10494222
STOP IT NOW ANON

>>10493715

This is FUD, crypto does nothing to facilitate high level assassinations and little for ordinary ones. A high profile target is heavily guarded and spends time only in controlled environments, the nr of people capable of carrying a hit is very small and they all work for the government anyway. Your average citizen does not have access to them.
As for ordinary hits, Tyrone is already willing to wipe out an entire city block for a bucket of KFC and a subscription to Blacked, crypto doesn't provide any additional help

>>10494284

A scenario:

A prediction market opens, asking the question; when will José Luis (arbitrary public figure), born 1971 in Tijuana die? Outcomes: range between now and 2 years. Stakes 1 ETH per BET. 1 year passes, nothing happens, stakes keep going down in favor of him not dying. An assassin betting against him dying could call almost the exact date and make a 1:100 profit. Anonymously I wish I could explain it better than Wikipedia though

> An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual, and collect a payoff if they "guess" the date accurately. This would incentivise assassination of individuals because the assassin, knowing when the action would take place, could profit by making an accurate bet on the time of the subject's death. Because the payoff is for accurately picking the date rather than performing the action of the assassin, it is substantially more difficult to assign criminal liability for the assassination

These assassination markets have real world effects, very much unlike normal prediction markets (Binary vs Vanilla).

> http://diyhpl.us/~nmz787/pdf/On_the_Difference_between_Binary_Prediction_and_True_Exposure_With_Implications_For_Forecasting_Tournaments_and_Decision_Making_Research.pdf

This is not FUD, this is in theory what a prediction market facilitates.

> . A high profile target is heavily guarded and spends time only in controlled environments

Which will only raise the stakes.

> Your average citizen does not have access to them.

You don't think highly organized crime doesn't have access to them?

>>10493720

>it would be necessary ... to include ... encrypted and untraceable "digital cash"

>"digital cash"

Best thread in a while, anon, nice work.

>>10493923
>anonymous and verifiable, this money will accommodate the largest transactions
>anonymous
Pseudonymous is not anonymous. Monero is the real bitcoin.

>>10493715
I would love this reality. Soros and the likes need to get what they deserve

>>10494444
Nice digits.

>>10494350

The scenario you describe has little to do with traditional hits, it's more of death lottery where the individual is incentivized to alter the odds. This still doesn't change the fact that important people live an alternate world that is difficult for Joe Blow to access.

>You don't think highly organized crime doesn't have access to them?

High level crime organizations are just another front for intel services, in other words government actors. If you don't know that by now don't bother replying

>>10494489

> This still doesn't change the fact that important people live an alternate world that is difficult for Joe Blow to access.

Pic related.

What stops some suicidal maniac taking out his employer and having his family or relatives anonymously depart with the odds from a assassination market bet? Assassins, private military contractors, mercenaries, etc. also live in an alternate world. You are talking as if they do not exist at all. How many Russian politicians have been killed in the last year? How many Mexican politicians have been killed in the last year? How many journalists have been killed reporting on politics in the last year? All of this, sadly can be monetized now.

> High level crime organizations are just another front for intel services, in other words government actors. If you don't know that by now don't bother replying

Intel services could cover up assassinations under the guise of assassination markets. No longer will there be a sole suspicion of government X or Y carrying out the assassination when odds are being collected on something like Augur after the hit. Stop pretending that none of this is plausible, it is right in your face.

>>10494489

Pic-related #2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBd6ptb7-QA

>>10493715
Crabs in a bucket
Make too much money? You violated muh NAP and must die.

>>10493715
Also, the same weapon anarchist capitalists are nutting themselves over can easily be turned against them.
Imagine government backed agents with nearly unlimited funds using this as a tool to assassinate political dissidents.
Imagine governments using this tool to undermine enemy states from within

>>10494222
>that repo
>instadepression
ffs

>>10494584
>How many Russian politicians have been killed in the last year?
Irrelevant, those were government hits

>How many Mexican politicians have been killed in the last year?
Same
> How many journalists have been killed reporting on politics in the last year?
Same

The OP was about incentivizing civilian vs civilian or civilian vs government, the underworld of government/organized crime is already rife with all manner of crimes from cp, snuff and hits, but since these people don't live among us and interact only in a facetious indirect manner (interviews, articles) you never get to see the underbelly

>>10494584
>Stop pretending that none of this is plausible, it is right in your face.

As far as civilian vs gov actors it is completely implausible and I'll explain to you why:
The governments of the world have been raping the citizens for a long time via taxes, laws, immigration, wars etc, there's already plenty of incentive for your average citizen to go against government and yet has almost never done so. Why, because most people are natural born slaves, they like being treated like whores, it turns them on. This means it's not an incentive problem and hence, adding more incentive, crypto, will change nothing

> will ever reach it's full whitepaper potential
stopped reading after the author can't figure out how to type correctly.

>>10494355

so how do we short this

>>10494194
fag sjw. go suck robot cock you spineless tard

>>10494824
You're assuming the assassin would be someone completely unrelated to the target.
What if someone already close to them decides to do it?
Couldn't some Mar-a-Lago employee kill Trump or some of his guests?
Couldn't some random cook at the UN poison a bunch of world leaders?

Powerful people may live in an ivory tower, but they're constantly surrounded by plebians working for them.
How hard would it be to infiltrate these people?
For the multimillionaire prize many people would be willing to move where the target is known to spend the holidays and get hired at their favourite resort doing unskilled labor.

Obviously for top-level politicians it would be the hardest, but such market would have all sorts of targets. From big screen personalities to small screen ones. From musicians to youtubers. From scientists to billionaires.
Most people in these categories have no protection day-to-day, and those who do, have at most some random big guy.
And all of them have haters and crazy people obsessed with them.

A couple months ago Elon Musk got stopped by TMZ while getting out of his car.
What if instead of a paparazzo it was two armed guys on a scooter?
He definitely doesn't have constant secret service protection, and he definitely has people wanting him dead.

>>10496270
People would bet on Pewdiepie, Logan/Jake Paul/etc as a meme, and we would all have a laugh until some desperate cunt just shoots them.
It would be absolutely trivial to do it, and the potential winning would more than make up for the risk.

Not to mention other types of bets, such as school shooting, terror attacks, etc.

My best paste about Augur:
>Augur's decentralized oracle bases its self worth directly on the USD market cap, irrespective of the price of an ether. The "5x multipler" has been switched to a 7.5 times multiplier in the new version of the white paper.
>The formula for estimating REP value is to determine the total open interest of REP (the total amount of ETH or Dai bet within the Augur system at any given time). Then, multiply that value by 7.5. Then, divide by the total number of REP tokens (11 million).
>Let's assume REP is able to capture 1% of the current open interest of derivative markets ($1.2 quadrillion) within the next 5 years. This assumes a yearly open interest of about $12 trillion. Because this is a yearly value, the actual value held within REP's 7-day windows at any given time is smaller. We must divide this yearly value by the number of weeks in a year, giving us about an $240milliard dollar open interest value.
>$240*milliard * 7.5 = $1.8 trillion.
>$1.8 trillion / 11 mil rep = $160000 for 1 REP

Im gay for augur. Its my biggest holding, and I am never selling.

Bless your heart OP.

>>10496270
>Couldn't some random cook at the UN poison a bunch of world leaders?

Hit the nail right on the head. Juxtaposed by this fight club quote .

> “Remember this. The people you're trying to step on, we're everyone you depend on. We're the people who do your laundry and cook your food and serve your dinner. We make your bed. We guard you while you're asleep. We drive the ambulances. We direct your call. We are cooks and taxi drivers and we know everything about you. We process your insurance claims and credit card charges. We control every part of your life. We are the middle children of history, raised by television to believe that someday we'll be millionaires and movie stars and rock stars, but we won't. And we're just learning this fact. So don't fuck with us.”

>>10496270

I've already explained once...it's not an incentive problem. Most people simply do not care. Government actors are constantly surrounded by civilians and despite the amount of problems these people cause and therefore incentive to take them out, events where a civilian took out a government actor are almost non existent. Adding more incentive like crypto will not change this.
You also have a very naive view of the hiring process for this positions. They don't take people from the unemployment office. Take the Bushes for example, if you read the books about them done by researchers you'll find out that they hire their butlers from the same school of butlers the British royals do. These are people have served the elites for generations. Same thing with the rest of their detail.
As for pop culture icons these people are not important politically and hence not really relevant. Who cares if celeb #6375745 gets whacked, some other whore will step up to blow some Jewish producers and fill the part

>>10497303
>These are people have served the elites for generations.

Their destinies are intertwined, there's no reason or them to act against the very people who gave them a privileged position

>>10497303
This gives a direct incentive to an individual or small group. Who's to say things would improve by killing sociopath politician #137? If you get $10 million it doesn't even matter to you if things get a bit worse.

Since you're not just another cattle nigger why haven't you killed any of these government actors yet?

>>10497303

> "despite the amount of problems these people cause and therefore incentive to take them out"

Problems do not create blanket incentives because not everyone is evenly affected by them. Money does create such incentives because everyone is affected by money. The "problem" at this point only embellishes the financial incentive beyond moral and ethical reasons (problems). Even if someones blood line has been loyal to a elite for centuries, a few million dollars (or even more) on a leaders head, may be enough to push someone over the edge. Especially if the assassination could be carried out without a trace and the payment collected anonymously.

> events where a civilian took out a government actor are almost non existent.

Happens on a daily/weekly basis, maybe not in the US.
And we have zero precedent when a assassination market is added to the scene.

If assassination markets truly becomes a thing how large a part of public figures could act to sufficient capacity under anonymous pseudonyms? I'd say politicians, musicians, authors, company leadership. This world scenario would even be made easier to realize crypto. Like tripfagging all across society.

>>10497569
realize with crypto*

>>10497569
Also imagine youtubers deepfaking their faces and voices to a human like avatar of sorts so they still have the facial recognition fame but without revealing their identity.

>>10497569
Imagine the transition in this world to governance by artificial general intelligence.

>>10497569
You have just realised why Monero is the only coin that will survive and thrive in the reality of the cyberpunk era. Majority of the dev team takes their personal opsec really fucking seriously.

The ETH network which Augur uses is not completely anonymous and people can see the ETH address when the smart contract is completed, so if an assassination was made the ETH will worthless as it will be tracked.

>>10497569
>>10497569


Szabo actually wrote about pseudonyms becoming brands and public figures in his early papers about smart contracts.

> Szabo also suggested that people might create different virtual personas to cater to different parts of one’s personality or lifestyle. One might have a persona for work life, for family life, for friends and many more. Each persona could be unique and only share data that the person felt comfortable sharing in that part of his or her life. Szabo defined a “nym” as “an identifier that links only a small amount of related information about a person, usually that information deemed by the nym holder to be relevant to a particular organization or community.” Nyms can include nicknames, brand names or aliases. A nym can have built-in equity from the positive associations of other nyms with a similar name or from a reputable person or group of people. Szabo defined a true name as “an identifier that links many different kinds of information about a person, such as their birth name or Social Security number.” Szabo predicted that knowing the true name of someone could provide massive economic value to a person(s); one example he cited was allowing an organization to send targeted product information, knowing the person is interested. A goal for everyone in the virtual world would be to create a “reputable name,” which would be a nym or a true name that carries positive attributes and is highly regarded. Szabo predicted that one day people would sell virtual personas, similar to the way that companies sell brand names.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/smart-contracts-described-by-nick-szabo-years-ago-now-becoming-reality-1461693751/

>>10497708

It is not impossible to exit ETH anonymous, that is what we have Monero for.
Even the NEM coincheck hackers set up a shapeshift like site to exchange their stolen NEM for Monero way below market rate.

>>10497479
>Since you're not just another cattle nigger why haven't you killed any of these government actors yet?

I'm not the one arguing that such a thing will happen retard. Did you reply to the wrong post?

>>10497547
>Problems do not create blanket incentives because not everyone is evenly affected by them.

You're just borderline retarded at this point. Most political decisions from war, inflation, mass immigration of violent animals, ubiquitous surveillance etc, affect everyone in a society. If someone truly wanted and could perform a high level hit they would have done so by now. Crypto isn't going to change a damn thing

>Happens on a daily/weekly basis, maybe not in the US.

I'm interested in the civilized world here, the West and the more elevated parts of Asia.

>>10497769
You fucking moron. Killing one politician is not going to change the world. $10M is going to change sometimes world regardless of all the fucked shit continuing around them.

>>10497724
I should find and read some Szabo. People always quote really cool stuff from him. ty

>>10497833
sometimes=someone's*

>>10495969
I suggest you spend more time reading and less time name calling :)

>>10497724
>that is what we have monero for
Slowly people will realise that monero is the only good money we have. Transparent protocols can operate on top of and around it but that shit has to settle somewhere fungible and private.

>>10497835
He really is awesome. Check out his blog.

>>10497769
>Crypto isn't going to change a damn thing

You're right. But financial incentives do change a damn thing.
It's not like someone could paypal you your winnings after a assassination.
Crypto is necessary for something like this to be even remotely possible.

> I'm interested in the civilized world here, the West and the more elevated parts of Asia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_in_Asia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_in_Europe

> Most political decisions from war, inflation, mass immigration of violent animals, ubiquitous surveillance etc, affect everyone in a society

They may, but only a small amount of people choose to actually care, an even smaller amount chooses to act (not even with force).
Give people a million dollar reason and the number of people willing to act will increase significantly.
Not sure how you could argue against that.

>>10497833

And who is that someone? I've already explained that the nr of people capable to pull such a hit all work for the government already, as for their entourage nobody is going to give up a cushy life to live a life on the run, regardless of how much money they have.

>>10497954
>Crypto is necessary for something like this to be even remotely possible.

I agree, I'm not saying crypto hits are not going to happen, I'm saying that high profile ones will pretty much never occur, unless it's a false flag, I'm saying that at the civilian level they'll be very rare and hence not of political relevance, and I'm saying that at a celebrity level I literally don't give a fuck if some two bit (((whore))) is getting erased, /hr/ will have to find someone else's feet to fap to

>>10497954
>Give people a million dollar reason and the number of people willing to act will increase significantly. Not sure how you could argue against that

I can argue against it quite easily, the great majority of humans, 99.(9)%,are to stupid, to weak, to enslaved by their cattle mentality to even begin to think about going against their masters. Those few people who could either 1) don't want to live on the run just for some money they can never enjoy 2) work for the government

>>10498326
People used to buy life insurance and commit plausibly deniable suicide.

Look at the fucking plot of Breaking Bad.

Is it really so unbelievable? Anyone below head of state levels of security detail doesn't travel everywhere with an armed convoy, there's just not enough incentive or plausible deniability for assassinations to be a thing until a decentralized anonymous marketplace like this exists.

You're not really so egotistical to think that you're the only non cattle mind in the world are you?

>>10498326
>>10498489
I mean Jesus Christ, there's plenty of people who just want to kill to kill, they don't care if there's incentives.

Say you're a disturbed individual who's planning to shoot up a school anyway, why not place a bet on it and give some lottery money to a friend or family member just for keks?

I'm a solidity developer who has read and understands the Augur whitepaper and contracts.

It is my largest holding and I've tried to engage /biz/ about it a few times before but generally people here are only interested in scams.

If anyone has any questions about Augur or why assassination markets aren't scary or a problem at all ask away.

>>10498554

This also notifies people that there is a higher likelihood of such an event occurring.

bumpy

>>10498554
(((Jesus Christ)))

>>10498645
This could have a very interesting dynamic

Whether an event is a black swan or "all according to plan" is a matter of perspective

>>10496517
Augur us supported by big cryptomarket movers: Silbert, Ver etc.
It's too expensive for a poorfag like me but this coin is going places. It's been on my radar for months.

>>10498691

Yea, the simplistic view is annoying both because its wrong and because it misses the exciting implications.

Like if there is a market that an atrocity will occur it is not really incentivising someone to commit it, its instead someone with knowledge that it will occur signaling a warning.

People have made shit like this too: https://www.predictrossfree.org/

>>10498700

Its market cap is below fucking dogecoin.

>>10498570
I'll bite, why aren't assassination markets a problem?

>>10493874
me like this excerpt

cybercurrencies

sounds so... cyber! when with most coin anonimity features do not seem to matter, cybercurrencies might even be a more fitting name nowdays

>>10494194
this, deus ex third (and true) ending all the way

>>10499120

A couple issues.

It is very difficult to actually create a cleanly funded Ethereum account with enough funds to incentivise an assassination and then convert back to fiat. I assume most competent hired guns aren't also long ETH. The Trump assassination market creators ETH account comes form two exchanges which have KYC processes. If law enforcement wished they could probably find the person. Same for anyone trading on these markets.

Reporters can always find the market invalid if they believe the market caused an unethical outcome. This means traders should generally buy anything not priced at the halfway mark as invalid markets pay all outcomes equally. Traders will take the counterparty offers before would be assassins do.

This is also not anything new. If you short a company you in theory now are incentivised to kill their CEO or bomb their production facilities. Real life doesn't work this way. Crimes are still crimes.

It's also extremely ambiguous what the intent of death markets are. What if someone simply want insurance against Trump dying because his policies help their business? What if its just a good old death pool (The Betty White market on Augur currently is certainly this case)

From a practical perspective these markets also aren't getting any trading volume on them. I don't expect that to change for all the reasons above.

>>10493715
aahhh geez the dems found out about rep