/biz/ - Business & Finance

anyone?

>>10439707
Buy property in a good location and you won't have to worry about what you are describing.

>>10440540

The cost of the actual building itself is nothing compared to the value of the lands. Most people want to live in cities for the amenity and economic opportunity. The value of housing in major cities is not going to go down unless the population starts falling or people change their mind about living in cities.

>>10440579
When you say 'economic opportunity' you are referring to jobs - what happens in a few decades when the structural rate of unemployment is dramatically higher as a result of said automation?

>>10440587

yes i am referring to jobs, specifically high paying service jobs. these are unlikely to be replaced by automation in the time period you are talking about.

>>10440579
Cities are in a bubble, when the debt bubble bursts there will be resource shortages and cities will see an exodus.
I'd like to see a chart of housing, are we doing a double top? We are around the same levels as 2007.
Of course this affects high population areas while rural areas are much less effected.

>>10439707
The cost of housing has gone up while the quality has gone down. Don't fool yourself, would you rather live in a house that was built 100 years ago, and still stands? or a house that already started falling apart at 20 years just because it was made out of cheap siding and OSB?

>>10439707
In the long term you can't really lose by having real estate. In the short term housing prices are going to crash, though.

>>10440614
>when the debt bubble bursts there will be resource shortages and cities will see an exodus

why? at worst the value of property may go down, but there's no reason people will leave and no reason there would be shortages

the rural people are going to take whatever price the city can pay them at the end of the day. better to sell their crops at a lower price than thrown them away

>>10440639
Read about property values in the 1930s. Unless you believe cycles don't exist anymore and it will only go up forever.

>>10439707
you can build houses as fast as cheap as you want them but people will always want to live in specific areas. as the world gets wealthier the competition for locations will be very competitive.

>>10440655
i said property values would go down. but the city is still going to be more expensive than rural land, and the cost of the actual buildings themselves are still going to be only a small fraction of the total property value.

Relating to the OP the fact that the cost of building a structure might fall in the medium term is not a good reason to short housing.

>>10440600
AI is moving a lot faster than you think if you think that surgeons, lawyers, accountants etc won't be replaced by computerised systems in 30 years.

AGI will arrive in the 2020s. There's just no way humans will be still doing service jobs (no matter how highly skilled) in 2050.

>>10439707

probably high rise trailer parks like ready player one

>>10440746

we shall see

i think you will find that it will take at least a centure for humans to widely accept AI doctors, pilots etc

and even there there will still be the creative jobs

>>10440780
I really don't think people will have a hard time accepting AI systems performing complex tasks (even those where your life is in their hands) within a couple (literally 2 or 3) years of small-scale pilot programs, because they will demonstrate a level of competence that is beyond even that of the best humans performing those tasks today.

To be clear, I fully expect that people will find a variety of things to do with their time, including things that resemble modern occupations. They just won't do them for a living, and it won't be necessary to do them. With automation will come abundance; it will be possible to have a lifestyle resembling a 2010s American middle-class lifestyle without having a income, because goods and services will be so dramatically cheaper to produce that many things will be given away for free.

Depend-o. Few folks, land for anyone and endless junk. Mad Maxish.

>>10439707
Labor is a big cost but the biggest obstacle to cheap housing is regulation. Shit is expensive in the cities and surrounding because everyone wants to live there but they dont want anything to change about their neighborhood. You can find cheap housing but people dont like getting shot.

>>10440831

i hope so anon and i personally would have no problem using a robotic surgeon, for example

but you have to remember that most of humanity is stupid. think of how stupid the average person is and realise that 50% of the population is below that

>>10439707
>shit tier demographics
>young people are all broke as fuck
>interest rates increasing from 5000 year lows
>government going to tax the fuck out of property to pay municipal pensions

Look at Japan, prices are going to collapse, real estate is a 20th century investment that is having a blow off top because low IQ boomers are scrambling to supplement their non-existent retirement

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@anonymint/bitcoin-rises-because-land-is-becoming-worthless

Humans are reproducing at fuck huge rates and it's very hard to build homes in most deserts, mountains, oceans, etc and we became more conscious of nature so mostly we will not destroy Forests and nature to build homes so expect housing prices at least doubling in this century.

>>10440950
Population growth rates in 80% of countries around the world are barely above replacement level and trending lower. The other 20% are all lowering rapidly, with only a handful of exceptions.

>>10441060
True, overpopulation has become a meme(except in Africa) now policy makes are worried about a deflationary economic collapse due to low growth which is why central banks are pumping the economy

>>10441242
The African problem will probably be solved by the 2040s

>>10440636
What makes you think that you 'can't lose' with real estate, and what is your definition of 'lose'?

>>10440780
lol @ you thinking that people need to accept technology for it to replace everyone within a short time frame. the whales decide the market, not the consumers

humans have been proven wrong every single time this kind of shit happens

>>10441242
(((policy makers))) who inflate everything so corporations that monopolize the market don't have to innovate or become more efficient because they're just getting their stocks pumped from money created by thin air anyways, yes goy, this is definitely not a problem in the long term when people have to pay their debts off in the future like overpopulation bro. only profits NOW matter, who gives a fuck about the future generations and our families.

>actually falling for the lies of boomers

>>10442288

>>10440746
Are we talking full blown android workers?
Unless we have those, I don't see how they can take service jobs that would require you to climb into a roof and navigate the beams or crawl under a house through mud.
With a job like nursing or burger flipping you can map out the floor and program routine jobs that hardly change.
A robot going to a house for service jobs encounters a different environment every time and a different job with different steps to remedy it.

>>10442323
Yes, we're talking about robotic systems with the same (or better) manual dexterity, vision, navigation and motion planning abilities as a human.

>>10442365
So like pic related?

>>10442400
Physical form will likely be close to human (for ease of interoperability with equipment designed for humans and ease of function in human environments) but perhaps with additional features (e.g. greater range of joint movement, ability to marginally increase or decrease height / limb functional length for certain tasks etc)

>>10439707
Boomers will die, Trump will slow immigration and demand will fall along with prices.

He doesn't accumulate land

you can't print more land
demand for good locations is insane
maintenance free compared to house
does not degrade like house, which is money pit and on top of it becoming obsolete, plumbing degrades, interior outdated and even blighted

> We will be able to produce houses much faster and using much less labor
This exactly. What happens when producing house is cheaper? Land skyrockets

Later nolanders

>>10442833
ssshh don't tell them.
Land is everything.
Bongs knew this, more land, more resources, more people, more profit, more growth

>>10442833
its the patricians choice
my father is looking to buy land in southern portugal and i really hope it works out
my family would then have holdings in germany and portugal so whatever may happen, we will always have a nice place to stay

>>10439707
Hard to tell. IMO demand near cities and especially inner cities will decrease drastically, because of automated cars and MAYBE flying drone services. No need to live near cities anymore.

Overall the demand will increase tho, because population will only growth from here, especially if you take in account DNA modification etc

>>10442833
>>10442854
Exactly. Land will matter, but can devalue drastically in not needed areas.

>>10442995
That's why you lock wagies dependent on their job inside the city, where developers pump prices astronomically already
Then it's either

> spend the rest of your life working in a cubicle, then come back to rest in cubicle ..and repeat forever
> commute 10+ miles back and forth daily

OR
Buy my land for a (((reasonable))) price

>>10442854
>Bongs knew this

Yea and they lost it all lmao. Soon they may even lose scotland and wales.

It's better to secure and fortify a small piece of land, than constantly buy land for no reason. That shit will disappear in a 2 generations guaren-fuckin-teed.