/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>1026963
Iran and Saudi Arabia are about to enter a pricing war. It's going to get way cheaper before it goes back up.

>>1026969

Ok. But it will go back up for sure would you say? I am well aware that I have a fucking collosal amount of research to do. But I just want to invest a grand in some cheap oil stocks for shits and see if that grand becomes 10k in 3yrs.

>>1026969

Also Saudi Arabia (news sais 4 hours ago) hiked gas prices 50%. I'm just curious how this will affect stock prices?

>>1026971
it won't go back up.
there's so much being flooded so cheaply, we could store it for years meaning demand will not be there even if they stopped. further, renewables keep getting cheaper, more viable, and third world countries which were oil dependant are being forced fed renewables by the west.

the oil meme is long gone.
invest instead in biotech.

>>1026976

Someone pls tell me he's wrong and just a kike SHILL : ( ( (

>>1026979
It's the truth. Oil rigs are closing in Texas right now. I talked with guys who literally jumped to BITCOIN because they were desperate because their oil was dying. Theres a push for all cars to be electric (or at least hybrid) by 2050. The only reason federal reserves, fracking and such are being looked at for cheap oil is because drilling it out anywhere else costs too much to net a profit. We have too much oil and the demand and prices are falling HARD.

>>1026979
They said Oil would be 30 by October when it's average was about 38. I wouldn't take it as gospel.

How is global oil storage? Are they full already? Still filling up?

>>1026997
I've heard some of the bigger stores were bought full already in 2014 as the price declined quickly. they were on buying frenzy

>>1026974
>hiked gas prices 50%
From 16 to 24 cents...kek

>>1026963
You don't wanna buy into commodities in general right now. You're better off buying some stocks in facebook (not even joking)

>>1027009
lol bad decision in hindsight

>>1026969
>>1026976
>>1026989
the fact that so many of you niggers think it's going to 20 after shit posting for literally a year about getting long it means oil is going to be up like 6% tomorrow.

>>1026963
Oil is not a renewable resource, water is, so when oil is as cheap as water, im buying.

>>1026971
As long as you're in for the long haul then It should improve in the next 5yrs. I wouldn't say x10 but at double ROI sound reasonable.

>>1027189
This.

If you invest in oil companies now, prepare to wait for the money. Seeing as oil is finite sooner or later logic dictates the the prices must go up but that may take a while.

>>1027220

Really

Pretty sure I read somewhere that we'll deplete the planet's oil reserves by 2050.

Investing in pipelines is more reasonable.

>>1027447
>>1026989

> 2050

IT'S A CONSPIRACY!

>>1027447
Lol dumbass

Everyone should buy Exxon Mobile, so I can reverse my losing position.

>>1027220
yer dumb

>>1026989

>demand falling hard

False. Demand is strong right now and getting stronger and will continue to get stronger as China and India get middle classes that drive.

>>1026979

He is. Imagine the volume of a 100 million barrels, Thats what the world consumes daily. Most countries dont even have a months worth of stored oil.

>>1027477

I'm wasted and have not slept in 2 days so apologize in advance if I sound retard. So u are saying he is in fact wrong? Or that he's shilling? Or that he is right.

>>1027487

hes wrong

>>1027487
If I sound retarded* Jesus Christ what a fucking fail

>>1027490
Why? Summarize in one sentence pls

>oil
>going back up quickly
>or as high

Time to restart a shale well: 5 days.
Time to drill a new shale well: 15 days.
Continents with unexplored shale plays: 6
Continents with fully developed shale plays: 0
Automobile efficiency gains projected for the next ten years: 20%

>>1027502

I don't get it I guess I'm a retard!!!! : D

>>1027220
No that's not logical.
Supply goes up, demand goes up, price is neutral
Supply goes down, demand goes up, price goes up
Supply goes up, Demand goes down, price goes down
Supply goes Down, Demand goes down, Price is neutral

in a simplistic model.
Once you go into exact rates anything is possible.

>>1027507

Hmmm nope fuck u

>>1027502

Automobile efficiency is not a big deal when you could have 50+ percent more cars on the road in 10 years. China is the number 1 producer of cars in the world already (and I doubt they are on the same fuel efficiency plan as U.S). The stats were crazy last year they made a new car every 2 minutes or some shit.

Also it takes longer than that to drill and complete wells. Closer to a month on the drilling and 5 days or so fracing. I think only the eagle ford has such quick drill times.

But yeah it is exciting to think of all the unconventional oil in the world. Surely it's not just abundant in America.

>>1027578


Hmm nope disagreed

i could think buying the first barrels at $20 if we ever reach that point, prolly with 2-3x leverage. buying a company is probably much riskier than just buying the oil. or at least buy multiple companes. some of them could dive to bankruptcy

>>1027578

Automobile efficiency means that your additional cars consume less gasoline than their actual numbers. If there are 50% more automobiles and they all consume 20% less gas than average, then from the perspective of gasoline demand, there are markedly less than 50% more automobiles on the road.

>>1027582

I think ur wrong dude

>>1027588

Incorrect

>>1027582

These prices are crazy low I want to buy right now. 20 is the inflation adjusted price from most of the fucking 50s when there were way less cars and the world was still in primary production of the biggest/best major oil fields. If they could support 20 back then I think 30 now is just absolute rock bottom.

>>1027588

Yeah but the point is that there is more total demand for gasoline.

>>1027597

But not by as much as you're expecting, because nobody fucking includes fuel efficiency in their fleet consumption projections.

>>1027595

Nope

>>1027605

Just a note that not everyone buys the latest cars, with the latest stats in regards to fuel. In-fact, fuel economy hasn't actually changed drastically for a little over 10 - 15 years when we're talking about an average car. For example a 1993 toyota corolla fuel economy is 27 city and 34 highway, while a 2013 toyota corolla is exactly the same. Not only that, but more Americunts that cared for the environment while gas prices were high are now buying trucks, suvs, and RVs.

I'm not sure what is going on to cause oil to drastically fall this drastically, when not to long ago everyone was shitting themselves about the depletion of oil, green house gases, and global warming. Now we all of a sudden have an abundance of oil that is at our finger tips. Plus the US is starting to export oil due to the excess amount of oil.

I'm rather concerned for what our future withholds.

>>1027635

Bruh, by 1993 cars used in the US had already begun to lose fuel efficiency over their late-70s/early-80s counterparts. We've lost a ton of fuel efficiency over the decades.

>>1026963
Oil was expensive because OPEC regulated supply.

OPEC is now ded as the fucking League of Nations, the Gulf Monarchies have declared a price war on the Russians, the Iranians, the Shale companies and whoever else dares oppose them.

The gulf between the Saudis/GCC and the Iranians/Russians (pun intended) has grown too large, in the immortal words of Taylor Swift, they are never ever, ever, ever, getting back together.

And that's not counting the current Chinese Slowdown. Nothing short of a full blown shooting war between Iran and Saudi can kill oil at this point.

>>1027448
ENB owes me lots of money. grrrr

>>1027636

Usually 70s family cars had in-line/straight 6 engines averaging 20 mpg. Your early 80s vehicles operated the same, but it wasn't till the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s that MPG actually became a concern.

> pic related

>>1027666

> pic related

>>1027637
>And that's not counting the current Chinese Slowdown. Nothing short of a full blown shooting war between Iran and Saudi can kill oil at this point.
That could well happen actually.

>>1027637
>>Nothing short of a full blown shooting war between Iran and Saudi can kill oil at this point.

Be careful what you wished for, I once mentioned to a muslim WoW player that Islam needed a reformation, guess which two words I've been hearing on AJE lately?

>>1026963
They where at 200-300$ and cost 0.50$? Why do yo ask? As long as they plan to continue it's a good invest.

>>1027636

> 'Merican cars
> not even once

But arn't we forgetting that planes, farming, industry etc all utalize and rely on oil. The demand is going to go up not down.

>>1027666
Also when we started insisting on safer cars that weighed way more, so the increase in efficiency wasn't reflected in anything but fuel consumption stability per mile

For the majors it might be a good idea, you're probably looking at smaller shale producers which due to their relatively high extraction costs have been hit hardest. Very good chance of a lot of those firms folding completely; by no means a safe bet.

>>1027126
*laugh*

Instead, it went down -6%
How does it feel to be such a retard?

>>1028564

The majors suck though they couldn't even make shale profitable at 100$ oil. They are just too big it's like beurocratic. Find the smaller company that hedged well and has small royalty burdens and a good conventional base to depend on and will be able ride out the storm. Now that would be a winner.

>>1027635
>I'm not sure what is going on to cause oil to drastically fall this drastically,

The Saudi's wanting to wreck US fracking, Iran, and Russia all in one swoop. They got the cash reserves to keep up the low prices for years.

>For example a 1993 toyota corolla fuel economy is 27 city and 34 highway, while a 2013 toyota corolla is exactly the same.

Try closer to 40mpg highway while not being a rolling death trap.

>>1028564
I see the majors going on a shopping spree and buying up the smaller failing companies. They have weathered periods of cheap oil before.

>>1026974

This is what youngins say every damn time.

When oil is low, they say "oil is dead, invest in renewables"

When oil is high they say "this is peak oil, we're running out, invest in renewables"

Oil consumption is rising at it's fastest rate in over a decade. This was a record year for auto sales in North America - and it wasn't electric cars they were selling.

The oil meme is far from gone.

>>1028745
Sorry that was meant for the guy below you that said oil was done.

Personally I think oil going higher is a good long term bet, eventually we will have some sort of geopolitical crisis in the ME that will cause a jump upwards. However you have to be careful about investing in oil companies because long term they may have trouble with the large amounts of debt they are in, I'm waiting on the sidelines for a good deal on a large oil company with comparatively low debt and a decent dividend.

>>1028745
> and it wasn't electric cars they were selling.

Electric cars had their best year ever.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/05/1-2-3-tesla-model-s-chevy-volt-nissan-leaf-top-us-electric-car-sales-in-october/

Granted only 91,000 between full electric and plug in model. The price is coming down the range is going up. They are here to stay.

>>1028793

>memecars

I cant believe people are actually spending their hard earned money on these. Fuckin hipsters

>>1027189
On top of this you need to think if the companies go bankrupt because of the continued low oil prices or if they go even lower. Then you'll lose all your money.

>>1028799
Electric cars are fucking FUN to drive. Nothing hipsterific about having a fun drive.

>>1027591
Chinese bro?

>>1026963

The problem is the Saudis are going after EVERYONE, not just Iran and the US. They don't expect oil prices to go over $60 a barrel before 2030, so you've got 14 years before oil prices go up. If you are willing to wait, wait until summer to see how things work out. The Saudis are raising gas prices for the first time ever, Russia and Venezuela are basically in full blown recessions but no one wants to say it, and US oil producers are starting to go under. It's all a waiting game at this point to see who is going to blink first.

what was briefed about oil supply should stablize by 2017, and 2018 the oversupply will be used up.

>>1027637
>a full blown shooting war between Iran and Saudi
https://www.rt.com/news/328156-iran-saudis-embassy-airstrike/
>Saudi warplanes attack Iranian embassy in Yemen – Iran
Oh shit, I think someone might have heard you

>>1027637
>Oil was expensive because OPEC regulated supply.
This is important

>>1028799

Go test drive a Tesla and try to not enjoy yourself. Let me know how that goes.

I have 250 cad$ how do I prepare for the great depression

>>1030017
invest in jew memes

>>1030021
What do u mean even jew stocks are dropping

Just a year ago I remember hearing that fracking was going to be a huge industry and that driving oil barges could net you $100k (not even mentioning all the other jobs it would create)

glad to see the industry is tanking

>>1030034
thats because they control your mind :-)

>Saudi Arabia is considering an IPO of Aramco
Fuck guys I hope you have your wallets ready

>>1031604

Remember when taxi drivers were telling you to buy internet shares in 1999?
When really it was time to sell?

Well this is exactly the opposite scenario.
It's the chance of a lifetime to make some serious money.

Don't waste money trying to predict the next big thing (*cough* bitcoins). Buy and hold shares in a cash generating, dividend paying, historically stable blue chip company.

Think of this time period as like buying bank equities in 2008 when the future looked bleak. Take a risk, bet against the market, and chances are that you will eventually make a good return on your investment.

>>1028800
actually the government will give me the money back that I payed plus dividends

it's called stock insurance, yes I do have it and yes I am happy about paying $2000 a month for $5000 worth of shares for a year

>>1026963
Whats the companies name OP? Im in for a long hold to yhe tune of 100 american dollars

>>1027507
ceteris paribus

Oil is not going to recover ever again. 50-60 is possible if lucky in far future. this year we are looking 27-30

>>1033799
I don't like this meme
I bought Shell at 1520p and it's down 10% in a fortnight

I'm just going to go down with this ship.

>>1026974
they're talking local rates. means they'll charge 15 dinar a liter, not 10

>>1027469
>will continue to get stronger as China and India get middle classes that drive.
le epic china and india middle class meme
Once depression and deflation sets in again them shitting in the middle of the road will be the only thing middle there.

Probs are china will get a US style great depression like the USA after their industrial and stock market boom.

>>1034659
China is beginning their depression. Speculation raped their economy. India is already shitting on streets, this will just make them shitter.

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/disbelief-at-tipped-10-trillion-plan-for-saudi-aramco-ipo-34348331.html
>The company could be worth anything from $1 trillion (€910bn) to upwards of $10 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world, according to a note from Jason Tuvey at research firm Capital Economics. The last mega IPO from the oil industry was a decade ago, when Russia's OAO Rosneft raised more than $10bn.

>>1034678
>http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/disbelief-at-tipped-10-trillion-plan-for-saudi-aramco-ipo-34348331.html
Some one is going to become a trillionare.

>>1034687
smells like privatizing a loss

>>1034695
Short selling their company while they tank the oil industry, so they can buy it back right before they decide to pull the lever again and rake in even more money.

Good strategy for the Saudis. The oil industry is basically rigged by OPEC, sure there's a bit too much supply but Americans will gladly pay $3-4/gallon in gas and overall profits go up even with a decrease in demand (it's not like Americans are driving twice as much now as in 2013.. maybe 10% more).

Just watch the fucking news circling in regards to oil - Saudi and the rest of durka durkastan - I mean OPEC, have pretty much said "we're just gonna pull as much of this shit outta the fucking ground as possible". OPEC's purpose is to put out it's Western competitors like BP and the US's oil companies. In that regard, some of it's own members are going to go out of business as well, and there are going to be only a few nations to compete for oil for a while, making Saudi and other oil-rich nations to have a pretty good monopoly on the oil market. Thing is, a lot of western nations are looking at moving to renewable energy - similar to how oil replaced coal. While you might be able to make some money on a long if you pick the right nation to back (in this regard, seriously, check the fuckin' nation out first, the stability of it, chances of it being attacked by foreigners, do your homework first), you could make a pretty penny. Alternatively, the guy that said go into biotech, is ultimately right. It's going to beat oil out in countries that don't naturally produce it, within the next 30 years or so.

>>1034735
Mate we're already at peak oil, there's not a lot of oil left.
You are wrong.

>>1035163
"Peak oil"? haha. Tell that to the people who are finding oceans of oil under fields that have been producing for almost 100 years. Under the Permian in particular. Don't forget the oil around the Falklands. or, the Malvinas if you're not into the whole British thing. Peak oil is a book selling term like "The Joy of Sex" or "Fellate Yourself to Wealth" (which is a big seller among Bitcoiners).

>>1035171
>Tell that to the people who are finding oceans of oil under fields that have been producing for almost 100 years
This is only happening in your fantasies and dreams mate.